 Okay, Traders, welcome to today's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Before I get going here, can I just do a sound check and an audio check if you can hear me? Welcome, screener, why in the chat box would be great. Thanks very much. Okay, so before we get going, as always, we want to pay attention to the risk disclaimer. As I'm sure most of us are aware by now trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk. You can lose more money than you necessarily have on deposit. And secondly, and most importantly for today's discussion, any views expressed by me here today are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of views held by TITML UK or TITML Europe Limited. So just before we get going here, a brief introduction to me. Like I said, my name is Patrick Munley. After I graduated from King's College, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a period there, I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup host manager in late 2004. With some time on my hands and some chips to play with, I moved on to explore my passion for markets. This was around the beginning of 2005. And I started day trading the S&P 500. And after I had some early beginners luck, which as it's often the case, ran out. I then went on to actually experience a six-figure hit on my personal capital. It was at this stage after what I can really describe as a gut-wrenching experience that I decided to get serious about trading. And it's also a mentor who demonstrated excellence in trading. After working with him for 18 months, this was a period during which I was not just my technical game and developed a strategy that I researched, sensibly back and forward-tested, all of which was underpinned by a rigorous risk management strategy. But most importantly, during the periods of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial games to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of trading, which is really a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You then start to lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a small spring of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in terms of my execution, that my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million-dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, mainly on market analysis to strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also the resident market expert for TickMill, whereby I provide a daily market outlook and a setup for the day, a chart of the day. You can access that through their blog and you can sign up to receive daily alerts on what it is I'm looking at in the markets. My other passion project really is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FX CareerSwap, offering development and funding to retail trading talent. We don't just develop retail traders, market and trading strategy knowledge, but we work on mindset development and through our structure program that culminates in managing the firm's personal financial risk on a 50-50 profit share basis. Those that are interested, I'll pop a link in the chat at the end with details regarding FX CareerSwap. That gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from and let's this week, I'm going to jump straight into the charts. We're going to do something slightly different. We're going to go through each of the charts I'm going to look at and see if we can identify some potential opportunities for the coming sessions. Before we dig into looking at the charts, I did want to draw your attention to one noteworthy issue. It's been highlighted that for the 26 of the last 33 days, the euros opened or closed around 1855. This is in the middle of extremes traded since the end of July. The gravitational pull of this 1855 is increasing. Seven of 11 September trading days, the pair opened or closed within 10 pits of this level. It looks like we're developing a range here and what I want to draw your attention to is the influence of option expires which are continuing to grow during this consolidation phase. There's roughly now $120 billion worth of expires between 117 and 120, all expiring between now and November. It's no wonder that we're seeing quite a tight range developing the euro at the moment. This options action certainly is going to lead to that in all likelihood in the near term at least continuing. Let's jump into the charts. Let's start with the dollar. This dollar index is the equal weighted dollar index. This is the dollar versus the euro, the Aussie, sterling and the yen on an equal weighted basis. We'll look at the broader dollar index at the moment. Where I think we're up to, at this stage, bearing in mind what we've just been talking about in terms of the options action, I think we're starting to get into a pattern here of carving out what I think is going to be an inverse head and shoulders scenario. So what we'll be looking at is this being our left shoulder here. And then we have our head down here. And then I think we're in the process now of carving out the right shoulder over here. And so you can see in terms of the left shoulder, if we think about the market in terms of mirroring action here, we could have two touches here at this support area at the 11934. We tried to get down there yesterday, failed, but I think we're rolling over a bit here today. So we could be down testing this 11950 area. Note that on this last low that we had, we had significant momentum divergence as per the momentum studies down here. So this adds credence to the idea that we could be developing an inverse head and shoulders pattern here, which could lead to an extended corrective mood. So a couple of ways of measuring this, the one that I use mostly is an equidistant swing idea. So if we do get a pullback into this right hand shoulder here, 11940, then to my mind, this would set up the what any wave guys would call an ABC correction or an ABCD, however you like to turn yourself. Certainly what we have here is that descending trend line coming in from the highs that we posted back in March. And we've broken out now. And this would fit with the idea of a pullback to retest that trend line from above and then set up this move, which would take us back into these lows that we had just prior to that spike up in March. So you can see how structure would develop there. And from here, this would be taking us in in terms of time at this stage, certainly into the end of September. It's from this area that I think we then could see the next meaningful move. And as most of you who know me will know that I'm pretty bearish the dollar over the coming months, years, even potentially. And this would set up an ideal scenario whereby we'd complete then this first wave to the downside. And so we can just hold up as we're looking at. So we have this being our first leg, one, two, this is the third wave that we're in at the moment. And so potentially we're going to complete here. And then we look for the fourth over here. And then what we're looking for is the fifth wave down into this low here. So that's the kind of pattern that I'm looking at at the moment now. A couple of ways of measuring, you know, if the price plays out and holds this area in terms of identifying an ideal target for where we can see this fifth wave complete. Well, a couple of ways of measuring it. One is an equality objective versus wave one. So if we clone that, you can see that that would put us nicely down into the projected descending trend line here. So that would be an equality objective. And the other way of looking at it is using the fib retracement tool and looking at the extensions. Ideally, you'd look for the wave five to complete in the one, two, seven to one, six, one extension. So again, you know, we're not a million miles away from the equality objective there, one, 16, 30, say one, 17. So that's the type of pattern that I'm tracking at the moment in terms of this equal ways of dollar index. And then obviously that feeds into the broader dollar index. Let's get rid of some of this. So again, we've got, you know, although this dollar index is broader in terms of the fact that it's a weighted dollar index and it is against six pairs, including the Swedish Krona, but ironically not including the Australian dollar or the Canadian dollar, which are relatively liquid pairs. So we're looking at the same pattern. Look for continued tests here in the 9250 area. So we have left shoulder head down here and then right shoulder developing here. And so what we're looking at, if this is again, if I'm right, and you know, I may not be, but what we'd look for is an equality objective. And if we, if we grind this out, you can see that the equality objective will actually put us into, will just shy of the descending trend line resistance, which remains intact on the broader dollar index, but obviously it's been taken out on the equal weight. And so if we can get the, again, this pattern plays out. We get up somewhere near to those prior spike lows. And what I've been looking for there, let's just bear with me guys. So we can also just measure this symmetry swim here and if we track that against our current low there. So you can see this is all starting to give some confidence here at this 9450 area. So if we do get up into there, then similar to the pattern we just looked at in the equal weight, we'd expect something like this to develop, which was again, put us nicely down into the project is sending trend line resistance for the third test. And again, would give us this initial five wave impulsive decline. And then what we'd anticipate from there is that we then see a corrective move, which in all likelihood is going to be something like this. And that the correct, this initial correction should complete back into where we see the beginning of the fifth wave. I'll bear with me guys. And so what we'd look for is that, you know, a correction into this area and then we would anticipate if the pattern is going to play out that from here, we would then start another leg to the downside. So that just gives you a broad perspective in terms of the dollar. And obviously then that feeds into the euro. Kano, I follow your plan to buy your AST from 1750 or 122. Yeah. So I mean, you know, that's that setup for now anyway is still valid. The slight challenge if we, you know, if you just think about what I was talking about in terms of the optionality in the market at the moment, we may be in for potentially a hold at this 117 and continue rotation really between 117 and 120. But at this stage we have, I don't see, you know, the FOMC last night, the guy, they, the committee, you know, kicked the idea of rates of any rate increase really, or even thinking about a rate increase, that's been kicked down the road for, for at least the next three years. So I mean, there isn't, there wasn't a catalyst last night. There wasn't any new information really from the FOMC, apart from the fact really that, you know, they have a pretty dim view on the economic outlook at this stage and certainly without a stimulus package being forthcoming price of the elections. There is, there are concerns with respect to the economic environment, but from a market perspective, the markets remains relatively sanguine, sanguine about that. So yeah, the idea would be here that, you know, if, if we are, if we can hold this 117, similar to this, this phase that we, we saw over here in terms of scope, let's, so you can see we're in the, you know, we're kind of trying to grind out this, this potential fourth wave here. And if we can do that, then, then that should set up the move into the 122 from there. I would anticipate we then see a more marked correction which could have us back down then into the, the 115, the one, the breakpoint here. But for now, yeah, I mean the, we have taken out the trend line support, which is noteworthy. We had a third test of that, you know, we had bullish reversals from there, but we've since closed below there. We'd certainly, if, you know, to encourage the idea of getting it on the long side here, we'd want to get a close back through this 1840, 1850, where we've got the weekly and the monthly pivot containing the upside at the moment. You notice here, all these tails, as we've been testing that monthly pivot, we haven't been able to get a close above it. So whilst we, whilst we can't get a close above, above the monthly pivot, then we have to, or to my mind and the way I look at markets, we have to look at a downside objective. And the downside objective would be obviously for me anyway, the first port of call is looking at the quality objective. So we could be looking at this scenario before then washing, you know, washing out some of the weaker longs in the market before then setting up that move to get up into, to try and test that 122 objective. So those are a couple of scenarios. The important thing for the euro here, if you're bullish is getting that close back through the monthly and the weekly pivots here. And we've got the daily volume-waste average price and the weekly volume-waste average price, both at the moment are negative. So certainly we want to see that those flip green, as per my strategies anyway, to encourage the view that we can take off again. Note that the psych indicator here is now flip bearish as well. So there's a bit of weight, I think, at the moment in the euro. But what we do have on the flip side of that is this optionality, 117, 120. So market makers are likely having to do a bit of delta hedging as we head towards that 117 area. And that's what's causing the support at the moment. But we could pop through there, wash out the stops below 117 and then get this quality objective done and watch for bullish reversal patterns to let's do something on the long side. So let's just go through a bunch of these others now and see where we might have opportunity. So I shared this, it was in this trade, the Swissie here, similar setup to what I've just been talking about, obviously, in the euro and the dollar index from the inverse head and shoulders for the bullish reversal. Let's get rid of that. And if we can get up through this neckline, then the objective for the pattern is put this 94 area, which you'll note is these prior lows before we rolled over. So confidence up there. But again, with the pull in terms of the euro and the optionality, Swissie trades pretty much inversely as does the dollar index. You can see that we're mapping similar patterns here. So not too much to get excited about just yet. Dolly Yen, breaking down, this could get interesting now with Dolly Yen. We're taking out the triangle pattern. So really what we'd like to see now is a move down to retest these lows here. And then what I'd look for would be this last corrective leg to replicate here and get us back into ideally the triangle low. You can see this type of scenario. So we get that pullback to retest the ascending triangle sport from below. So back into that 1,530, which has been support over the last couple of months. We've had three touches. We've broken down through on the fourth. So we get a pull, a move down now. It extends. We take out the stops underneath the price. And then we get a snapback back into test this descending trend line support as resistance. And then that could set up the next leg to the downside here. And we could be looking at a retest of these lows in the coming months. So this is one certainly now that's on the radar. We've been stuck in a pretty tight range here. And this triangle pattern was really guiding the price action. But now we've broken down from it. So this is the, this is the play that I've been looking for in terms of the dollar yen. Looney, I was looking at a similar scenario on the intraday charts for our inverse head and shoulders, but just going nowhere. We can't, can't get any traction to the upside on that. You're a yen. So these yen is starting to roll over here. So what we, what we want to look at now is some targets for this move. And the basis we've, we've taken out the equality objective. We then next look at the 161 extension. We've got the monthly VWAP coming up through here. We've got the monthly S3, weekly S3. So if we look at what the next opportunity is going to be, to my mind, what we'd like to see is to move down into this target zone. So we get something like this. And then, and then we get a pullback into that prior support here now acting as resistance. And then we get another leg lower. So again, in terms of thinking about the next opportunities that may be setting up in these pairs, the, you know, these yens now are certainly looking interesting. Once we put in, you know, once we can see a basing pattern and then the first pullback will certainly offer opportunity. So you're a cat still just sitting about that trend line going nowhere fast in the Eurocat at this stage, just contracting a very narrow range. So again, where you get these narrow ranges, the trade, I think anyway, or the highest probability is wait for the break in the pullback to retest either the descending trend line resistance and support or the ascending trend line support as resistance. Euro Aussie absolutely nowhere. No interest in that. Euro Kiwi looks like it's going to challenge these, these lows here. So as per my, one of my strategies is using a pin bar as a continuation entry into a trend. So if we get it closed today, which is within the range of the prior days candles, this 175 to, if we can hold 175 on the close and we close at or below current levels, and this will be a signal for me on the short side. And what I'd be targeting here would be this equality objective, which would put us basically back into range support here. So this, this is certainly what I'm going to be watching tonight. So if we can close at or just below current levels, and I'll be looking at a short position on the break of 175 and I'll be targeting and moved down to these prior lows, 170, 180. So a few hundred pits there and an extension to the 70, 72 area, which is the equality objective. So this one is certainly on the radar for tonight. Stirling, not much to do there. Stirling Swiss again, we've taken out this trend line. So for me, the best trade or the highest probability trade will be the retest of that from below. We've got a bit of work to do before we get there. Stirling has seen a bit of a reversal here, the Bank of England once again raised the specter of negative rates, but nothing, not a set up there for me at the moment. So Stirling N, this one's interesting. You can see this last decline that we had was sitting right on it now on the monthly S3. So I certainly pay attention to how we trade in the coming sessions here because if we can hold this 134.60 on a closing basis and we get a bullish reversal, then this could be an interesting opportunity on the long side because we have this type of pattern in play then clone that. And we would be looking at something like that. So that's one to keep an eye on into the close tonight. Want to see this quality objective hold. If it does, then we watch every trade tomorrow. There might be an opportunity on the long side there. Stirling CAD, nothing for me to do there. Or there. You can see these big reversals we've seen in these Stirling pairs on that, on that news out of the. Now this Stirling Aussie actually is interesting because it's going to potentially give what I refer to as a momentimentary. So you can see here we have the monthly VWAP bearish weekly VWAP bearish attempted a bullish reversal yesterday. And now we're getting another reversal. If we close down towards this 175 handle here in the Stirling Aussie, we ideally I'd like to see the, this RSI stochastic roll over. Certainly we've got negative momentum as per the psych indicator. And you'll know what we've done here. If we think about this idea of retesting support as resistance, you can see we ping just back into this big double bottom where we did get, where we did get the initial recovery. And that was underpinned with this bullish divergence here. But now we've taken out those lows and we're making new lows in terms of the psych indicator for this leg. And we're getting this outside reversal candle. So this again, similar to that Euro Q that I just talked about, this would give me a, a potential momentimentary targeting. So I mean, even if we think in terms of the near term wave structure of this move, we, we'd be looking at an equality objective. So if we, again, just eyeballing it, not getting into the fibs or any of that stuff or losing your mind about any way, but just looking at the simple structure, you can see how we can easily make the argument for that being a five wave pattern. And an equality objective will take us back down through the lows here. So currently trade 176, could be down at 174. We bring in the fib tool here. And yeah, we get that one, one, two, seven extension ones. So 72 to 172 is 173 would be the fib target to the downside, the equality objective at 174. So, you know, we've got great targets to the downside. We've got a very bearish structure. And, and this one has certainly has potential to my mind on the downside, if we can get, if we can get the close to basically at current levels or below is what I'd suggest with that, that sterling Aussie. So let's check in with the Aussie continues to grind away here, holding on to dear life at this trend line. I've been in and out of this on the long side. I still sense the potential for a test of this 75 level before this move is done. And, and, you know, we get a more, we get a decent correction develop back into this 70 handle. So again, and the reason for this, although, you know, part of the driver behind that sentiment is we've got a lot of divergence here that ultimately will be addressed in the form of driving, of driving a correction. So, so we keep an eye. Again, if we close out or above current levels, and I might go back in here on the long side tonight, because if we think about the inverse to the bearish momentum plays that I just talked about, we've got, got things lining up here on the bullish side again. So we'll see, I could be back in, take another shot at that tonight. Looking for this 75 test. I was a year. Nothing there at the moment. Nothing. So again, thinking in terms of momentum, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish. We've got the RSI stochastic coming up from above below the 20 level. And we're bullish in terms of the cycle indicator. So, you know, this, this, I mean, I play it through the major obviously at this stage, but you can see the Aussie has, has got a bunch of bullish momentum setups here, developing Aussie Kiwi, not so much because Kiwi's, Kiwi's training stronger at the moment. So if you look at the Kiwi, so Kiwi's holding, continue to held this trend line and a bullish reversal here. So I might take a look at this tonight on the long side because we've got, we've got a move potential for a move I would anticipate, at least up to this 69 handle and see how we trade there. We've been hogging this trend line, getting a bullish outside reversal potential today. So again, at or above current levels would be sufficient for me anyway to take a look at this on the long side this evening. So we'll see how that, that's a Kiwi and doing nothing. Kiwi, Swiss, again, just confirming we're coming up into that trend line here, fourth test. And for those who work with me on a daily basis, you know, I think the fourth test are the ones that tend to give away. So we could be in for a breakout here to the upside. In terms of the Kiwi Swiss. And if I, you know, if I was going to play the Aussie Swiss or the Kiwi Swiss at this stage, looking at the Aussie Kiwi, certainly it looks like we've got a bit more strength in the Kiwi at the moment. And so that's the one I'd be looking at. If we just sit just below this trend line tonight, then again, that could be interesting from a momentum perspective, we've got all the VWAPs bullish, RSI stochastic coming back up from, from below, what, sorry, not from below 20, but flipping bullish with the green fast line over the slow line. And we're sitting right at that trend line where we'd anticipate a bunch of stops will be sitting in the market. So you can get through there, 61 to 50. We've got an equality objective back into these prior highs at the 63 handle and we've got site bullish there. So there's a bunch of, you know, set ups here that could be interesting tonight. Let's see where we are. Kiwi CAD bullish, CAD Swiss going nowhere. CAD Yen is sitting on this trend line fourth test. So again, this looks bearish for a breakdown. And then what I'd be looking at would be the snapback. So we get through here, probably into these lows here. And then we get that snapback here. And that will be a potential opportunity on the short side then for an extension lower. And so we can be looking down into this monthly S3. So that's one to having the radar. Swiss Yen, nothing there. Let's take a look at these futures. So we're taking out the trend line. Let's see. I mean, intraday, these aren't worth paying attention to. You really just want to focus on where this, where they, where they close. We're holding that symmetry swing support at the moment. So can't get too bearish until we take out 3300 on a closing basis. And this is just rotation. And I still see the potential for us to test this 3726 before we get a more meaningful correction. Last one I want to take a look at is the yellow metal gold. So triangle pattern here in gold. One second. Let me just throw that in. So we've been trading this in this triangle. You know, the idea of alternation in terms of earlier wave and swift pull back here. Now something more protracted, but certainly look for a breach of the monthly pivot here. So 1970 on a closing basis. To my mind will certainly set up a retest of these prior highs at 2073. Let's see where we are in terms of quality objectives. Yeah. So just shy there. If we, if we see an equality move, but like I say, I have to take out the monthly pivot on a closing basis. And you can see we tested through the descending trend line yesterday, but got pulled back right back into the apex of the triangle, not uncommon. So you really want to wait for a close through that 1975 to set up a move back up to 2055 is the, is the equality objective there. Okay. So that's, that's basically what I'm looking at in terms of near term opportunities. Ones are like the, the euro Kiwi sterling Aussie, the Kiwi Kiwi Swiss. And those four I'd certainly be watching this evening, see where we close as they may offer some near term opportunities. Okay. Are there any questions? If you have a question, you can type it into the chat box or I can unmute your mic if you have one. If you don't have a question, if you just type in N in the chat box, that's equally helpful. So I know you followed along. Okay. Good stuff. Well, look, I'm going to wrap, wrap this session up here. Like I say, watch that euro Kiwi sterling Aussie, the Aussie Kiwi and the Kiwi Swiss this evening. Thank you very much for your time. And I hope this helps.