 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 I've run Basil Chapman here on this Wednesday November 24th day before Thanksgiving hope you will have a wonderful Thanksgiving cows down a 36 35,713 this has been a steady pullback taken a little longer than the move from 35,490 in the Dow back around about late October and then it went to all-time on the 8th of November that's 36,565 and now in their pullback and the patterns that we were looking at have all unfolded exactly the way we thought they would this is very interesting because if I can just find it right there click there it is because a little mini H pattern low-case H and then a club is decisively low it took three bars couldn't break above that left side high there's the H pattern and it actually did the one-to-one to the downside it's holding shaft wave inside wedge target resistance line in this case it's target support line pink dashed line it's held it very nicely the 35,490 level which is a potential target we've gotten close today's low 35,000 whoops let me just see what it is 35,591 so we can see what happens today I think the day is very young we're gonna see some chopping and changing all over the show the most importantly the weekly jobless claims post stunning decline to 199,000 the lowest level since 1969 that's really that's amazing and yet the government is trying to have trillions and trillions of dollars of extra money coming out I all I can say is I you got to think this through carefully you got to think about what's going on what's what's happening in the oil situation now what's happening interest rates is a lot going on here and in fact with jobless rate so low you would think that the normal aspect of yields going high because there's more demand for bonds and buying and loans would be the natural consequences of all these different positive aspects of the economy and here the TLT is at 145 36 met a double bottom potential low but in fact yields and if we go to the TNX oh if I can show you that maybe I'll do a little later on the TNX which is the 10-year yield went to 16.93 1.693 two pennies or two ticks above the 16.91 or 1.69 1% that was made back in October the 23rd 22nd so you would think that the yields would naturally go higher because I mean that's just a natural consequence of economic demand and now we are in leg D in the weekly chart finally we got to that D oh what an interest yeah one of the reasons why some of us are just we've done this for so long and the market is consistently its objective is to is to challenge us a challenge our thinking to challenge us in ways that are always different I mean wherever have you seen gold act even the golds pullback it acted so well when the dollar is screaming to the upside at 96.81 I mean this is a breakout from a year over a year ago a year ago we were looking at let me just see what this candle is that's July of 2020 the open was a 97.38 and the low was 92.65 and here we are in this cup formation beautiful cup formation in the monthly chart challenging that level again this this is quite extraordinary what's going on remember I said for a long time let's try to keep yields that's a bondy let's try to keep gold goldy let's keep the dollar dolly and the VIX index as separate entities because they in their own trajectories look at this the volatility index it had a high today of 20.96 it's up in the higher region it's at 20.46 and that's suggesting that there is some kind of a digestive phase going on so I said and we spoke about this yesterday but the UVXY is a very this is a trading vehicle for the volatility index and look here it is it's up 71 cents at 16.47 it's not breaking out break out would be sharply above the high that was made back on that fateful day the 10th of November where it spiked but it had been in the 14th and the spike suddenly to 17.25 only to pull back so it's a these are all different vehicles and that's saying to me that going into year's end and this is why I had that webinar just recently going into year's end when the market especially the Dow closes the end of October the beginning of November at a high but especially if in November it acts very well there's just a really good chance that even though there could be a pullback that the market kind of closes nearer the highs of that year because it survived the September October the usual September October decline so let's just go back now we're gonna now I can get back into the rhythm of looking at these different things I just want to show you the E mini made a peak the SMP mini made a peak D just moments ago at 10.05 and 46.76 77.75 in the one-minute chart pulling back now set for 46.67 yet the single leg A up spike in the 10-minute chart let me show you patterns we're gonna do all of that this is technical Friday even though it's a Wednesday because we will not be here on Friday I might I just don't know yet whether I need to send out my my opening call newsletter on Friday we'll see how the markets grows all our positions we've set in place we've taken profits in a lot of positions taken little bits off we've booked up a cash position we are short we've been short different areas and the latest areas being the QQQ index 100 and the SMH is just about at their tops all I can say is that we've done a homework and let's see what happens look there's a falling exformation right here that means lower lows a much lower lower highs a much lower lows we've done that the 10-minute chart says that resistance level just let me make it red so that you can see well and then make it pink in fact let me make it nice and thick wait there it is there are and now you've got the low one let's see what happens you could do anything you can see this I'm buying this I'm selling a lot of things going on but I I suggest to you that the rotational correction is underway I've been talking that for a while I said let's wait and see when we get that sell-off from the QQQ we've got a little bit of a sell-off big deal in three days you've gone from an all-time higher 408.71 to today's low 392.54 that's just nothing look at that big move up from the low that was made in November the 10th at 387.53 that's when that VIX index it bumped up and that's a big move from 387 to 488 so you've taken two days you've given back a couple of days worth of action it's just the start of something that's all I can say I'll talk about it when we get back as a chapter type of business hour thousand hundred million voice is down 70 are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every 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So there's the NDX 100 and it is down 280 at 394 and sixty three come back a little bit from the lows hey we'll see what happens let me just include the estimators also coming back a little bit from testing the 40th bread exponential moving average down 2.7 and 302.54 318.82 was the all-time high at a peak F it went into the chapter rate, inside track repellence zone, got repelled, days young, we'll see what happens. Look at that, the weekly chart, 91% in the stochastic, 90 is good, 90 is way above the 14 and the price is way above the 9. All I can say is we'll see what happens just the starting position, trying to do something here based on the chapter rate methodology, we'll see if that's going to work. A couple of things I want to look at here, look at the IWM, the IWM is trying to rally off today's low-to-low and it's inner leg B to the downside, it's got that A pattern straight up, now it's coming straight down, but it has taken its time in a way from the 244.46 high of the 8th of November, all-time high, BF in the chapter weight and now we're down at the we hit today 228, you know that's a lot of points, 99% in just a brief time, so we're going to be watching this closely now, let me just do this, within the context of everything we're looking at it's really important that TLT, let me just show you something here, I normally show this to subscribers to my opening call over the weekend when I do my video overview, but I'm going to show this to you right now if I can actually find where it is, what happened? New, oh right there, the 30 year yield is a TYX and it's white, the brown is a TNX, the 10 year yield and coming up in a moment is the FVX, which is the cyan-colored 5 year, look at that 5 year screaming high, wow, if ever there's been a little divergence in these yields, this is it, this is coming up right now, oh one, two, we're there, look, yields are rallying, down 14 ticks today at 20.09, that's 2.009, in the 30 year trying to get back to that resistance level, the 10 year has just made a new high and that's going to be a new leg up in the weekly chart right at 1672, 1.672, look at the 5 year, look at this overlap, this is you don't look, even when it was here and there was a bit of an overlap, it lasted seconds, this is really different, this is saying that the 5 year, I can't believe this, the 5 year yield, the FVX, this is the 5 year TNOTE yield has gone from the low back in 2020, it is in August it goes to 1.6, 1.92, now I have to take away, so it's actually 0.192 and there it is at 13.60, 1.3, that is a huge move in the 5 year, so that's speaking to demand in many ways, look here as wood, the ice shears, global timber forestry just stuck in the slow range, the Philadelphia Housing Index did make a nice recovery high, this is potentially a cup formation, excuse me, and we're going to be watching that one closely, so now let's go back to our story, and our story is that the Dow is trying to rally, the little, the one minute chart that we were looking at has readied sharply, the 10 minutes has gone right back to that resistance level, the falling x formation, what does that mean, falling x just means you're making lower lows and higher highs, and at some point, if you break above that resistance level you can go quite a bit higher, yes the up move, yes the lower highs are much lower lows, it turns around, makes a base and tries to break that trend line, if it does that you can get a one-to-one to the upside, we're going to be watching this closely, I'm not sure there's enough strength to do that, I'm just mentioning that's the pattern we're going to follow, let's get back to our story, and our story says the SMH's semiconductor index now down just two at 303 points, look at this, NVIDIA, has it come back nicely, yep it's come back now, it's up a little bit, up 70 cents at 318.20, it hit 346.47 with a 319 round number low on the 22nd, talk about round number lows, what was I looking at, AD, let me just check that out, what came out with earnings this morning, yeah GPS, right GPS, that's the gap, whoa look at the gap, the gap had a plunge, and we get R, that'll get me back there, look at that gap, 23% down at 18.11, it's down 5.40, it made, this is a very interesting thing, look I draw this in the other, a big C1, C2 double top in the dating, that acts like a Pd and now look at that pullback from the 25s, and we're at the 18, this is unbelievable, that wasn't the issue, the issue was that we had, what else, what had earnings today, AD, no no, AD, BR, BR, no, AA, something, tell me what you had earnings today, AD, oh no I can't remember what it is, yeah JWN was another one, no no no, not Adobe but it's like it's in the areas in the tech area, oh AD, ADBK, ADBK, I usually know these things, and now I'm just flubbing it, nope, ADSK, ADSK, what kind of handwriting do you have there mister, that is an S, yeah ADSK, so I'm looking at this from the other day, I've notated a couple of the tech stocks over the years, the ones that I kind of followed and I thought well the earnings are coming up soon, let me do the notation, well on the 16th of November, Autodesk has an open of round number 326, the very next day it has a slightly higher high, 335.46, that makes peak a leg E, next day is a red candle, peak E and all red candles and now it's plunged 16% down 48 to 255, those round numbers, I mean look at this Goog, Googie, look at this alphabet, this is not the trading vehicle, had a 3037.00 all-time high on the 19th of November, I have to tell you these round numbers always flabbergasted me, how they come about and serious market turns as potentials just to watch, doesn't always work but it's just like a heads up to say wow someone's getting out, Justin says get me out, I'm just putting it in without bothering to put in any points I'm just going for the round number, so this is a deer has a high today of 371.80, it's up 19, great earnings and I said to subscribers the other day that that catapult a bit especially deer in the farming area should be doing very nicely and here it is very good action not great action because great action would say that that cup for a second cup formation shouldn't have gone so deep in the weekly chart they should have held a 360 area and not right now should be at something like 393.402, so this is very good action but it's bumpy, it's a chap mate inside track, a repellent zone and that goes together when I was talking about taking out the link to be along, but subscribers DBA agriculture fund at 20.30 to make you go behind, it's just that agriculture sector is doing well. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. I vote for it back. Wow. I went to so many places to do that a couple of minutes break there. Let me see if I can retrace that. So I'm talking about the civic index. Well, Applied Materials, one of the major players there, had a round number, all time high of 159.00. And that was round about the exact thing was the 11th. Let me just check on this on the 16th. Let me just put down now. I can put that down on the 16th of November. Not bad, huh? And now it's down at 147. It's down almost $2. So it's a 12 point slide. It's about 7% or 8% slide just like that. What's really important now, as far as I'm concerned, is that if there is a rotational correction, you should see these seven flurries because we are talking about a favorable time of the year. But at the same time, you've got weakness. So how does it resolve? It resolves very selectively. I mentioned to my subscribers this morning, I love the fact that a particular stock that we were following hasn't, has been moving higher. I'm just upset that we didn't get into it. And today it's up sharply. It's up actually it's a $28 stock, up $2 today. It just got to be very selective. It's really important. Now what's even more important is that within the context of all the things that we're looking at, let me just show you something here. I was asked a little earlier, could I show FANG? FANG, which is, there we go, F-A-N-G, Diamondback Energy Inc. Beautiful move. It had a PE top at about 100 and was it 1650 or 171 on the 8th. It drops all the way down four days ago. It was trading. This is a big new move to 100.78. You know, these are 17%. And now what does it do? Within three days, it's back at 114.08. And that goes together with the XL-E because energy is a huge part of what we're looking at. Look at the XL-E. It just broke the Chapman-E falling ass, low lows, low highs, breaks that trend line. That's a positive thing. And the monthly chart, the weekly chart, I said, I'm calling it a leg B, even though I could give it an alternative count, because I think energy is a very big important, it's a very important part of what we're looking at at this particular time. The XL-E is at up 80 cents at 58.14. Well, the most recent high, not all time high, the recent high, 59.41 October the 26th. And look at this, and then you make your U-shaped pattern double top. You remember I discussed this, it's exactly what we're looking at in the QQQs and many of the others. Makes a left side high with very good technicals, and then retests almost to the penny on the right side with very weak technicals. And look what happened, it has more than a one-to-one to the downside. Now it's running. So this is going to be very important how we look at it and look at the monthly chart. Monthly chart is right in the Chapman-E inside track repellent zone. This is a monthly chart, if at any point towards going into the last day of December, you start to see the XL-E trade not just hold on a weekly basis, but on a weekly basis up in the 60 area and actually close closer to 61, then 57. All of a sudden that monthly chart says, ooh, that's a leg D. So the question was, a leg D, what did we do in a leg D statement was, I'm a little nervous in leg D in the monthly chart. What do I do? There's a person who has had fantastic trades in Fang took appropriately took money off. And now it's looking at it. I'm just going to suggest, because you've already had great success with FANG. Just go back right now to 114.12. In your case, because you've had big profits, have like a five point stop just for the at least for the next into Monday this coming Monday. And get back in. Why? Because it's leg D, but leg D can continue. We've seen leg D's, huge leg D's, not only that, leg D's over all the resistance in May of 2019. That was in the 114 area. And it's right in 114 now having gone higher than that. So this is a big test. But I'm saying, rather than just watch it and say, Oh, I planned it so well, you know, getting out is always, always, always easy. Getting in is never quite so easy. So I'm just saying, get your foot in the door. Don't have to have a big position, but I get in the door right now because of your situation. Now, if this is fresh money, you've never been in. That's a different matter. I'd say only a very small position here at 113.98. And in your case, since a small position, I would still have something like a three or even a 4%, a $4 stop, I'd probably go with a $3 stop, because this has to work immediately. Okay, this question ahead was, Nick wanted to know about ATO, I haven't finished looking at all the different indices, but I wanted to say, when a stock at most energy, another energy area, a stock did this incredible February of 2020, high of 121.08. And two months later, it hit 77. I would say that a 50 point decline is something serious, a 30 something percent. And then rallies back and then get stuck in the arch formation is telling us that there's a sideways sideways move. The weekly chart is okay. It's not great. It's okay. For the technicals being as strong as they are, the price should be a little higher. But the data you see, this is what I like to do. That's the only reason why I use all these different indicators. You only need them when you need them. But if you didn't put them on, you wouldn't know that you need them. Look how this 200-period moving average has been a fulcrum. It's been a support. It's been a resistance. It's been a huge support all the way through the July, August period. And then September breaks down and becomes resistance. It comes back down sharply. And even at most energy, which is ATO trading right now at 95, 12 down 19 cents. And oh, I forgot exactly what the statement was. Are you in it? Are you looking at it? I think you're in it. Let me just find it right here. ATO, ATO. There it is. Good morning, Basil. Would you please go over ATO? I'm in it 94.38. And I see resistance around 96. Not sure what legged is in and gives and given how devious this market is. Should I get out? Thank you for your help, Nick. So Nick, I'm just going to say to you, it's acting like a magnet, the 200-period moving average. My suspicion is that if it can hold the 95s, if it goes under 95, you've got to be a little careful. But that magnet is going to say keeps wanting to come back, even though you pull back quite sharply to 92, just five sessions ago, four sessions ago. So I'm suspecting that this 200-period moving average is going to see a price. And in fact, I'll draw it in now. I'm going to say, this is what I'm expecting, something like that. So you could go a little higher. You could even go to the 97th. But then it could still come back and test the 200-period exponential moving average. So in the meantime, back at the patent recognition phase of it, look at this 200-period moving average, even when it was up in the 97, 98 area, now it's down in the 95s, was a magnet, up and down and up. Remember, like a spit, like a barbecue spit, and you're seeing it, prices go above and above, but it keeps coming back to the middle of the spit. Now the spit is resistant. I suspect that it's going to be good. I'm going to suggest you've got in, I don't think that you would mind having a one point stop from your 94, 38 entry point, just at this particular moment. Give it a couple of days. Let's see what happens on Monday. If it's held, and in fact, it even has a little bit of a pop, that's great action. And it says in the energy area, this one is hugging tightly to good, good, good magnet support and resistance to the 90s. I'll be right back. Now it's down 101, it's going to be done soon. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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I've been looking at C in fact I was looking at it yesterday. Nice little green candle yesterday. A good green candle today except I have to break the news to you that it hit the charge appeared moving average back in the first week of November round about the 90. What was that 92? 90 had a peak D right there. 97.65 on the 29th of October had a little bit of a pullback because it's trading right now. Well, yesterday the low was 54. I would just I'd have to say that that's a 50% 51% pullback is kind of sharp. Good candle today. So Gary says, Basil, would you have time to look at Z? I've had a put on it for three months and thinking to book the profit and move on. So, Gary, first of all, congratulations. If you've you've had a put you've had just an incredible increase in that price. Now, if you had said to me, I put, I would have said, you know what, reward yourself, take one third off right now. Just say that's fantastic and give it a little time. I think Z, which is Zillek Group Inc., it's online real estate purveyor, Seastock, hit an all-time high of 208 back in January or February and it's really, really, really out of just a whopper of a pullback. I suspect that it's going to have a little bit of about and it's going to do some retesting, but you have a put and I don't have to tell you how if you're in the money, it's not a big deal to see something go from up 50 points or 30 points to for you. In other words, down, but in your case, profit of 30 points and then maybe it's a 28 or 25 point. You know, you say, okay, I can give up a few, I can give up a few points. It's not a big deal, but you've got one and I'm just going to suggest to you that you nailed it so perfectly that even if it goes lower, you could use that money in another way. And oh, my other thought is to sell half. Oh, you've got puts. Now you've got puts. Absolutely. So this is exactly what I was going to say that if you have some, I would immediately, I don't want to tell you how much to take off. I would just say to you, take off some. I would love for you to keep some because I think it's going lower with the general market. I think this market has a big problem on the shorter term. Now, someone said to me yesterday, you were so negative. It looked like you were a big bear. No, I said there's a rotational market going on right now. And because there's a rotational market and I've got daily sell signals in the latest sell modes in some of the more mature week to two to three week, four week sell signals. I don't have it yet. I want to see the S&P pull back much deeper. Look, it's down only 14 points at 4676. The whole time high 4743. It hasn't broken down yet. And that's the data chart. I even got a sell signal. So what I'm saying is that I would like very much to see that you reward yourself, not just with taking some a little bit off, reward yourself, take something off. I don't want to tell you how much. I personally would like to see Zillow try to rally into the 58.5, 61, maybe even 62 area, and then give a test on the downside. If it takes out the low and starts to trade below 51, below 50, that is just really negative action. I think there's a chance it can do that. So I would like you to keep something. So take off. Absolutely. Reward yourself. You figure out, and I would, the rest that you keep, you can have in two lots. You can have it in a lot that says, you know what, I've taken good profits, and this I'm going to split. And if it does that, if it goes up, I'm going to take something off, a little more off. If it goes down, I'm just going to hold them. You decide what you do. Maybe even by Friday or Monday, we can talk about it again. But absolutely, I would, if you got not just one, because you had said put, but now you're saying puts, it's complete. Take something off immediately and reward yourself. I would definitely keep some because I think that Zillow is going to, at best, it'll bounce around and retest the 52, 51 area at worst. It just takes it out by the first week of December. The worst is that it's suddenly trading in the 48, 47 area. It's got a big problem. I think it's getting close to resolving it on paper, but not in real life. Let's see what happens. All right, let's get back. Oh, and then Fuchu, Fuchu, Fuchu is, always forget what, oh, Fuchu Holdings. I think this is a Chinese company. Up $1.54 today, 55.84. Earnings came out. I don't know what they, where, how, what. Let me just see what it says here. Fuchu earnings. Yeah. Oh, Fuchu, three quarterly report latest out revenue jumped 83% has become, oh, Hong Kong, okay, Hong Kong's largest retail brokerage. I want to export financial services on, on behalf of China. Aha. Okay, so that's good to know, but I'm only looking at the chart and I would have to say to you that it's making the H pattern and if they ever get into the brokerage business, since I would treat it more as the speculation area, I think you're absolutely right in keeping an eye on this, but at this particular point I'm just, I wouldn't get too carried away even on the long side. It could have a little bit of a balance, but I think he needs a lot more testing. Fuchu is a Chinese brokerage, yes. So in that regard, it fits the whole concept that I have here. Remember the IAI we have from the 46th is way back March the 24th of 2020, trading right now to 112, made an all-time high of 116.25. I'm looking at this and I'm saying keep an eye on it because together with Charles Schwab, I think we've got a digestive phase going on, but Schwab hasn't heard me, he's selecting really well, it's up 28 cents at 83.22, and I'm correct, and I know if I'll be correct, but I'm thinking, still thinking, that we're going to go into this huge, almost like a gambling phase with the stock market as more and more people get involved in certain areas of the stock market. Look, the Bitcoin down today, down 670, I gave a sell signal on the Bitcoin when it made the double top with weaker technicals, that's 69.355, we're still running from the 12,000s area, just to have a little bit, a small position with taking huge profits off it, and leg Ds now, peak D in the weekly chart, I think that we're looking at this in a completely different way, and if you're looking at the GDX, the GDX sitting right on key support at 32.34, I think that gold is more in play right now than the Bitcoin, both up and down, just I'm talking about as trading vehicles, and as such, I remember I said Goldy, Bondi, Vixy, and Dolly cheat everything separately, it's almost the same, that even within the semiconductor area, you've got fantastic NVIDIA and applied materials, and advanced micro devices, and then you've got some MU's micron, and then you've got some real stinkers, so just be very selective in whatever you're doing right now, and yeah, I agree with G7 and the Den for the FUTU, just buy a longer term pool option, you just couldn't care less, no food, come in in the month of exploration, I'll be right back as a chapter goes down on you. 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Dave White, you've got Tom O'Brien wrapping it up for the before the Thanksgiving long weekend for all of us here and I'm just going to wish you all just a wonderful Thanksgiving, have a wonderful weekend and I just don't know yet whether I probably will just send out a quick thing for my subscribers for Friday. Meantime back in the rest, look, we're talking about the home builders. Toll brothers, fantastic, almost at an all-time highs. It's got a peak D right here in there for the last four days. It's at 65-50. But wait a minute, these are homes, a different kind of home builder at 20.85, made a peak F top in the 22s just four sessions ago, pulling back, not quite as good a pattern in the monthly chart. Isn't that, you see, I'm saying that every sector has this real big winners and then a couple of ones that are just lagging and look at this, Hovenanium. This is also in the home building area, HOV, look at that, pulls sharply back from the all-time high. It's at a peak D and it's just stuck in the lower range. So I'm saying, do your homework, just every sector has winners and losers. And at this particular point, the winners are the ones we're watching, but we're also watching the most recent winners as possibly having a digestive phase right now. So with that said, let me just quickly say the VIX index is pulling back here, but not that much. It's up 52 cents at 19.19. There are some people doing some buying now because, as I say, this is the season we're normally going to these holidays, Thanksgiving and the Christmas season. Money comes in. So just use your homework, watch very closely. If the VIX index starts to pull back below 19.33, by a little later this afternoon, maybe by 1.30, this market go even higher, but if it starts to stall and so the VIX index pops into the 20.50s, it's at 19.19 right now. And it says, well, be careful, we've got to sell this for the empty session. Have a wonderful day, see you in the next VIX program and check out my performance.