 Mae'r ffordd a chyfnod, yma, y 24th yn fflaesio a fflaesio a'r ystafell mwy o'r ysgolod yn ysgolod. Mae'n fflaesio i'r ysgolod yma, i fynd i'n ddyn nhw'n gweithio i'r ysgolod. Mae'r ysgolod i'n ddysgu eu sesio o'r ysgolod yn ysgolod, a'r ysgolod yma, a'r holl o'r cyflaesio i'r ysgolod yma i'r ysgolod. You will see from the calendar on my right here, this was posted by head of analysis Anthony overnight on our Twitter feed. I think I retweeted it as well. If you haven't seen this, please do head over, it helps to start planning the week as it comes. Monday is other than really the I-Fo out of Germany. It's going to be a pretty quiet one. Ie, fe wneud fydd y bach yn yr hwnnw o'ch bwysig mwy o'u llyfrgellun gwaith, fe wneud ei ddim yn gwybod, fe fydd e'n gweithio ydy ddim yn gallu'n gweithio ar Ascot. Bydd nid oedd rhan oedd o'n gweithio ar y llyfrgellun gweithio a rhoi hadech chi, a bydd honno yn oes fod yn oed yn gallu bod hefyd yn fany o'r oed yn dweud, yn dweud yn dweud mas gweithio'n oed, a gweithio'n gweithio sy'n ddych chi i gael'u phwng. Or pathetic. Friend, tell me, So today seems like one, Just to sit back and plan and not go chasing the market too much. If we have looked where stocks are trading Following a fantastic week, it has to be said back above 2900 on the beginning of it, this time last week the dovish Aqua Fed healthy… Helping to push on, however we are just stalling a touch if we have a look then of course Mae'r ffrindio cyfry bryd yn gweithio. Ben yn yr un pethau a ddweithio'r erbyn! Felly ydych yn hyn yn ymddangos? Mae'r marweith hons yn gwneud hynny i ddif iechyd o'r rwyaf a mae'n cael ddweud i wneud hynny. Byddwn yn ymddo i'r cyfrifiadau yng Nghymru yn ei wneud yma y tuw i ddweud. Felly mae'n cael bod'r passerbyn ar y maen nhw yn mynd i chi'n meddwlol yn ymryd. Dyna'n hefyd fel y byddai b~) ddechrau'n llawer o'ch cymdeithasol a gwybod i'n meddwl gwneud, Ond gweithio'r ffordd dyma nid yn cydnodd a phoesol yn ei ffwrdd gwneud, Ac yn ddiddordeb amdano'n gweithio'r ddedigau, yna, yn ffwrdd US. Fel Ynrhyw Gwld, mae'r dda hefyd o Eicor, ac mae'r perffindingau gennyngerol a'r ddweud o'r ffwyll诚au. i mentioned here is we are now at 1,805. We're keeping an eye on how we trade around at high, is that gonna be at double top? It seems like it's if you want a neck line for a gauge of judgement, 14.0, 4.2. Here's as good as you're gonna get, you can see we found here support this morning on what was a resistance level, the failure to push on sy'n bwysig, a os ydych nhw'n ei ddweud yn gwneud. Mae cwmdoch anodol o gwasryd iawn, ac mae'n fydd rhan o'ch bwrdd yma. LED yn fwy o'r opa על gwyllfa, neu mae'n fwy o'ch gofynu. Yn eisiau ein gwyb sydd yna'r ddweud, yma, yna rhaid yn wel i'w haf. Felly mae'r wrthym yn dweud yn rhywbeth oed â'r bwysig bwysig ddech chi nes yw fengyrchu ei chweithio'n fudd i'r gwaith gweithiau. ond ganddo'n gweinwys iawn i $50. $51, ond ganddo'n gweinwys iawn i ysgwrdd yn y gwbl iawn. Diolch yn byw ychydig i gyd yn mynd i'w gweinwys iawn i'w gweinwys gweinwys iawn. Rwy'n ni'n meddwl i'n cael hwnnw. Rwy'n ni'n meddwl i'n meddwl i $55, ond rwy'n ni'n meddwl i $58, ac mae'n meddwl i'n meddwl i $55, ac rwy'n meddwl i $55 i'w meddwl i $55. Rwy'n cael ei ddweud o'r drwg yma, ond yna yma yma, ond yma'r G20 yma ar y dyfodol, yma'r Trump yn ddiwedd i'r Proseson G. Felly, yna'r ddweud, ond, yna'r ddweud, ond yna'r ddweud, ond yna'r ddweud yn ddweud yn ddweud yma, ond yna'r ddweud yn ddweud, ond yna'r ddweud, ond yna'r ddweud, Over the last couple of days, well, on Friday evening, I'm sure you all saw the headlines that Police have been called to Boris Johnson's house. Yes, absolutely, if you hear something you should call the police, but to then, when nothing's then no further action taken to then go and send a video recording to the Guardian, kind of sums up what kind of person that person is. However, it's bit of a non event, bit of a non story, nothing coming of it. Boris doesn't want to talk about his personal life, people think he has to, it's going to go around in circles, there's a lot bigger things going on. Has this affected his odds in the leadership race? No, not according to Oddschecker, as low as one to seven with some bookmakers, one to five the best you can get with Sky Bet. With Jeremy Hunt at four to one, I think that is fair considering obviously it's a two horse race. You know, it's a second horse pun here of the day. But yeah, I don't think there's too much in the way that this is going to worry the market. Also, we've had over the weekend Boris Johnson talking in his telegraph report. This was on the weekend signalling that his focus was on leaving the EU on the 31st of October. We've heard this all before, whether he can actually get things done or not remains to be seen. The pound recovery has been quite strong back up to 128 trading below 126 just a week ago. He was suggesting in this article that the date that the UK would face a democratic explosion if it did not leave by that date. Now that's big words for something that is not a foregone conclusion with Rory Stewart getting the boot on Wednesday or Thursday last week. That was Theresa May's last backer really going of her deal. The EU have said they're not going to change the deal and Boris Johnson is going to obviously try his own one to get through Parliament. The EU would then just reject anyway. So to come out and say something so hawkish about leaving on the 31st of October is pretty brave and you can picture the headlines come the back end of that month and then on Halloween when we again have to ask for a further extension. He went on to say this time we are not going to bottle it, we are not going to fail. In my opinion and I think it's shared by many for us to get things done by the back end of October is wishful thinking. The back end of July pretty much this date now will know who the next Conservative leader is and the next Prime Minister. Obviously have the back end of August is recess for government and then you've got the new EU commissioner being elected before we then can get down to business. And there was actually a report from the independent over the weekend suggesting that the Conservative party are reportedly making plans that will permit the next PM to hold off from putting their Brexit plans to Parliament until autumn, which could limit the time to reach a deal to just over three weeks before the 31st of October. It's been three years trying to get some sort of deal but now new Prime Minister is supposed to do it in three weeks. Having a look at the pound and I said it's over 128 and really this is going to be helped by the dollar weakness that we've seen. You can see the sharp recovery if you like of the pounds here. I do think like we were saying last Friday when we were talking about the biases for the day and the week ahead that the dollar does feel a bit overdone. Whether you want to look at this more technically to have your sort of gauge of sentiment, you know you could be looking, I mean it's as close as around, draw this trend line on, you can see the importance of the level around 127, 66, the pivot below that 59. If we get it to get below that close to day then we could of course drift lower and that might be the way to look at the things here. Because obviously you have the weaker dollar on one side but also the pound situation doesn't really look like it's going to get much better. If we have a look at the direction that we went on from May we of course are still a fair way off that. Probably worth having a look at some Fibonacci levels from that cellar to that low. I mean the 3.82 holding quite firm now. If we look back historically as well to the February lows, the Valentine's Day lows, another meaningful boat, quite a key level that we're trading now. A bit of rejection this morning has this just been the good opportunity to get short again. Obviously time will remain to show what will happen there. But is it important week for the US as well? We have some data wrap, we just go back to that calendar. The Chicago PMR on the Friday, you've also got the PCE number as well which we know the Fed look at. If that was to come in and that's really what I'll be focusing on the Friday, the core PCE number. We know the Fed look at it so if we were to get a weaker reading where this strengthens the case for further cuts and maybe it is going to be a 50% cut rather than that 25% cut or 0.25% cut that people are thinking about. However if we were to see a good number then the market might have to change its view and the dollar might have to start strengthening again. Going back to the dollar and it was interesting having a look at the reaction to the Fed on Wednesday. If I just bring, well, just circle up or rectangle the area. So we did push higher, we're now, I mean if we go from the Fed you can see, actually Friday, Thursday, I've got a long day there and say it wasn't a massive reaction. You can see we have pushed on quite a lot since. However, if we look right back on the day it was happening and this is against the euro, but the dollar was on a two week high. So unbelievably going into a dovish Fed announcement interest rate decision. We were on a two week high of the dollar or just touch. So a bit of unwind of that, not necessarily to say that they were ultra dovish more so than expected, but the dollar had strengthened into this meeting. So maybe just an unwind of that. I do think there's going to be a good opportunity to short say euro dollar again and the way this market is behaved over the course of the year. It might be worth just trying to identify any potential trend lines going into the week and breaks of those. Then you can get that continuation lower. But back to the calendar and looking at opportunities for where the dollar strength could come. Friday could well be that with the Chicago PMI and the core PC numbers, which we know the Fed prefer and looking at as it strips out more volatile components such as energy. Analysts expecting a 1.6 reading as of now. And then some analysts have gone on to say that if they were to overshoot the forecast it will strengthen the argument of Fed Chair Jay Powell who says weaker inflation this year is transitory, a scenario that would spur markets to rethink the case for a July rate cut. But however on the flip side of course if it's worse then it's just going to boost that idea. Which brings us on to the G20. Going back to this time last week I was speaking with Ann about what I would do if I was Trump and having the tweets last week however long ago it was where it was looking now that Trump was saying they're going to meet and it's all going to be great. We were just saying perhaps he's just shot too early here. I know it's in the election year and he wants the stock markets on all time highs. He wants these good trade deals. If you're China and they have been relatively hawkish over the weekend about how they have the patience to hold off they're not going to be bullied into it. If I was China I would do the same. I would make Trump sweat as long as possible. I know there's been a big impact on the economy for China. But if they wanted to play it from a more clever point of view they could just hold off and then actually have the latter part of the year when Trump is really campaigning for that re-election. If he doesn't have this China trade deal done he will struggle. That is leveraged on the other side and sleepy Joe Biden might just wake up. So it will be interesting to see what can get done at the G20. I don't think the markets are necessarily expecting a deal to be announced. We have pushed higher a lot going back to just the last week. Just the idea that they were meeting was enough to strengthen markets massively helped I guess by the rubbish fed as well. But it should be a pretty interesting end to the week. So looking at that calendar quiet start to it more range bound let the markets tell you what's going on and the scheduled releases and perhaps more unscheduled announcements that the G20 might be the better opportunities for a longer lasting move. China what they were saying in the people's daily administration the paper they were saying the US must drop all tariffs imposed on China if it wants to negotiate on trade and only an equal dialogue can resolve the issue and lead to a win-win. That's what the newspaper was saying. Any hint that they're prepared to get talks back on the road on track towards a deal would be welcome news for the economy the global economy really. And then that on the flip side that positive news then may give that warning or take that warning away and the Fed may not cut rates at all. So if you're Trump now you've seen what the Fed are looking to do. You've seen now there's talks of a 0.5 rate cut. Trump's going to be hawkish isn't he. So therefore if not if it does look like there's a deal going to get done and significant progress will be made well then the stocks should continue to push on. However I don't think he's going to do that right now. He's got a bit of ammo with the Fed and I do think his baby down Jones is what he cares most about in this election and he will time it as best as he can. It may be interesting to see how hawkish as well on the flip side China are as we go through these talks as well. Last week obviously we saw a lot of central banks with the Fed, the Bank of England, Bank of Japan. We saw some comments from some ECB. So we'll just have a quick run through of those things here. If you flip back to the euro we have pushed on higher since then. The interest rate decision 7pm last Wednesday, Powell took it as close to a rate cut as possible without executing one. It would be the summary. He and his colleagues removed a previous pledge to be patient. That removal was obviously ignited further dollar weakness and we traded around that day 113 on the futures and we're now 114.5. So not the biggest move in the world but still a big reaction from where we were trading in that sideways range in the build up to the meeting. The uncertainty highlighted by the US trade war will remain and Trump knows now that he can be a bit more hawkish come Friday and Saturday. So I would say the dollar side of things, it could be a good opportunity to get a reversal of that but stocks wouldn't be too aggressive just yet about thinking that this market is going to push on and on and on. Just be careful perhaps going into the back end of the week. Of course the data we talked about, the PC number, if that is good then on the flip side power again you can step back and say we've seen this transitory inflation number. As we mentioned we're now not going to cut rates and suddenly the dollar strengthens quite a bit again so we'll go back to those highs on the index. ECB, yes they well, we know it was, well what was it, the 18th? So Tuesday where we had the Draggy tweet in the morning, or not Draggy comments in the morning only for Trump to come back and blast him on Twitter. The tweet here, Mario Draggy just announced more stimulus could come which immediately dropped the euro against the dollar making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years along with China and others. So the ECB, while they didn't have a central bank meeting, Draggy found himself at a Twitter war with Trump not something he would have signed up for all those years ago. Of course he's stepping away in autumn. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann sought to make himself a more viable candidate as well to succeed Draggy by acknowledging the ECB's crisis fighting tool is legal and valid. If he was to get the nod it would be a hawkish one for the euro despite him trying to make him more viable here. So we had some dubbish comments out of the ECB out of the euro last week and you can see that the day before, I'll just bring this into picture here, the day before the feds, you can see that reaction although the complete reversal and more following 24 hours later after that. Bank of England, what did we have? Let's have a quick look over at the pound. On the Thursday we drifted higher into the announcement, came back lower and then since Friday afternoon where we've seen a lot of dollar weakness we have pushed on. We're just coming to that key level though on the pound. I'll keep an eye on those Thursday and Friday morning highs to keep a close eye on. The Bank of England, what do they say? Acknowledging rising concerns on the UK leave in the EU, really they can't do anything until that is sorted, especially if the UK leave without a deal. So they've kept rates on hold, however Mark Carney said they still see the need for interest rate highs in the coming years if they're forecast bear out. So of the two previous dovish meetings that we had from the Bank of Japan and the Fed, the Bank of England is slightly more hawkish, however not really resembled in markets as of yet. The Bank of Japan has mentioned they were dovish but they kept things on hold minus 0.1% remaining there. Curoder reiterated that the Bank of Japan stands ready to add stimulus of momentum towards its 2% inflation goal is threatened, so keep an eye on that inflation number for the Bank of Japan. If that was to weaken, you've got to imagine this and be a follow-through and actually they might have to look at alternative measures. Unbelievably in an era of monetary policy easing, you've got the Nordges Bank who have raised rates for the third time since September and signalling more tightening to come. So fair play to them, that Scandinavian economy which is backed by the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund is starting to show signs of overheating after surge in oil investment. So at least someone is raising rates as well. Quick look over the calendar again just to reiterate today is looking pretty quiet. I wouldn't be expecting too much really other than the German IFO which will be worth keeping an eye on certainly for the euro and the DAX alike. That's coming out in 26 minutes. The forecast for that IFO business climate is 97.4%. So a tiny drop down from the previous reading so that will be really the main highlight today. As we go into tomorrow you've got Jerome Powell speaking again so that will be something to keep a close eye on. Has he got any further comments to say following the dovishness of the Fed and the market reaction that that saw ahead of the G20? Does he want to say anything? That will be something I want to keep a close eye on. You've got the weekly API and DOE's as usual Tuesday and Wednesday slot. Oil has obviously pushed on quite a lot. We've had some relatively hawkish comments out over the weekend from Iran as well. Let me just bring these into picture. I mean not actually about 46 minutes ago the Iran naval chief warns that Iran could down more drones whether they would do that or not. I think that would escalate things a bit. Trump going back on his word over the weekend saying that he actually wasn't ready to send the attack on Iran. He was dismissive of that despite tweeting it 24 hours previously. Last night over the weekend Iran Deputy Foreign Minister says its decision to decrease its commitment to nuclear deal is a national decision and irreversible as long as its demands are not met. Of these comments, of the China hawkishness ahead of the G20 I have to say I'm slightly surprised the US markets are still near those highs. I know we're in a bit of a chop right now near the all-time high. I'm a bit surprised we're not coming off the touch but oil remaining around 58, pretty key to see what happens at this area. It does seem like the R1 offered a good level of resistance along with this trend line. The pound is coming under a touch of pressure and you can see actually therefore now just breaking through that level and finally support on that trend line. This is a key zone 72 to 77 that will be keeping a close eye on gold. That neckline that we talked about before is key. We're keeping a close monitor on that as well. Back to the calendar just to wrap things up. You've got retail sales numbers out of Japan so keeping a monitor on how Japanese data comes out ahead of their next meeting where they're going to have to start doing things into the middle part of the year will be quite interesting. You've got a couple of speakers as well on the Wednesday and Thursday. Bank of England's Carney, Feds Bullard all speaking and the Votny on ECB. You've got Tory leadership hustling Thursday as well. I think it's a pretty much foregone conclusion with Boris to win it. Time will tell if it can get more interesting but right now not the case. On paper the most interesting day, G20, big US data that will be the main focus and we do have some European numbers out in the morning as well. I hope you all have a great trading day. Good week ahead and I look forward to catching up with all of you throughout. Take care.