 Hi, my name's Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex technical Analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back And I just want to first start off by saying thank you for all the support and feedback that you guys have been Leaving me on the YouTube channel and in the comment section. I really appreciate it Keep them coming any questions. I'll try and get back to you as soon as possible and Again, if you are new to this channel We have the pairs time stamped in the description box below so you can skip to your favorite pairs and There's also some other information in the description box as well a lot of educational stuff in there So starting off this week on the fundamentals as fundamentals and sentiment is really what moves the market And you've been seeing it this week Especially with risk of sentiment and the US China trade wars or trade negotiations that have been happening. We've been in the risk of environment, yeah, so You know Chinese trade war your question is answered on the BBC and Yeah, so the It has an effect on the risk of currencies risk of currencies being the Japanese yen and the Swiss Frank they are safe haven currencies, but Looking forward and actually math, I think that's gonna obviously continue into Definitely into next week But again with risk of sentiment it can change quite quickly But there and there are definitely Trading opportunities and what risk of sentiment does is that it pushes prices to where we want to be buyers Yeah, so if you are trading risk of sentiment just be careful, you know in and out maybe a quick trade but What you should really be thinking about is where value is where the bargain prices and where our price is cheap Yeah on a price chart and if you really want to determine that We're using fundamentals and sentiment I have a free fundamental analysis and sentiment Forex trading course go through the modules right here and In fact, I do have and this has been here for a while I do have China and the relationship between trade partners, which is interesting and you can see that playing out as far as the China Chinese negotiations with the US and the effect that China has on the other Currencies and the risk sentiment And also as well while I'm here you got the fundamental fundamental analysis spreadsheet click on that and it gives you my my Directional bias regarding what I am bullish you know bearish and different degrees of strength when it comes to currencies and Matching pairs so most of you be following me for a while know that I've been bullish on the dollar, right? They are way ahead of other the other currencies So and they and they still are even regardless of the the trade war So it's just a case of you know bullish on the dollar euros is neutral slight bearish So what you would do is go to the euro dollar and then look too short again This is not financial advice though. This is just what I am buying my thoughts and I'm deriving from the Fundamentals this doesn't take it into account risk sentiment. So risk off, you know, this the Japanese yen is gonna be strengthening But if risk is on Meaning the fundamentals are in play then the Japanese yen is definitely bearish So coming up this week we go ahead Next week we will have the US Publishing retail sales industrial production housing data and flash Michigan Michigan's consumers sentiment Elsewhere important releases include UK unemployment and wage growth wage growth is going to be a thing as well Obviously as to do inflation Germany first quarter GDP growth from that be definitely important for Europe as Germany are Europe's powerhouse if Germany are slowing down GDP wise then pretty much the rest of the Europe Are going to be definitely lagging behind China industrial production. That's going to be important for global growth retail sales and fixed asset investment Japan current account can now have an early indication of Japanese GDP and Australia employment figures business and consumer morale. So we've got a few things few important Macroeconomic drivers in there. I think my picks would be for Europe anyway for the euro be Germany first quarter GDP growth if again if Germany, you know Starts to really slow down because there is a narrative behind that then And the euro is going to be a sell so We can actually get on to the charts now and starting off as we always do on the doubt Jones dollar index So Dow Jones dollar index This was last week's chart So we're gonna do is press play we come down into this demand zone and We've pretty much held where this demand zone is a few bounces Again with the uncertainty around, you know the US and the China and China And what the effect is going to have on the US economy but we've been in pretty much a range for the week and It's really much to update on the chart to be fair if we go to the chart now I Guess what I could do is just tidy this up a bit. So you've got a bit of Supply right there No, in fact, we've made lower lows. Yeah, so we've made lower lows on this candle here So that would be where you'd be drawing that and I'll probably Extend it up to around here So that would be where we'd be looking at any shorts and we'll use a Dow Jones dollar index as you know a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro the yen the pound the Australian dollar and if you are looking to short the dollar you'd be looking at the You know the Dow Jones dollar index and looking for basically some confirmation So if that starts to sell off prices come up to you know, anyway in this supply zone and it starts to sell off What you would do is look for shorts on the dollar yen dollar Swiss dollar cad, etc And look to sell the dollar For me, I'm looking for buying opportunities on the dollar So if this level does break, then I'll be looking at this demand zone Around here in order for some confirmation and for for me to look to get Long on the dollar. So Dow Jones dollar index. I think those are your options But I'll be looking to be a buyer of the of the dollar regardless of what they're going through With with China. So moving on to the dollar yen And the dollar yen so this week We did get Move all the way down, you know, but and this is really because of risk sentiment on the Risk off so the Japanese yen does strengthen in a risk-off environment. Yeah, so No matter technical analysis You know, we'll we'll work only, you know when if we've got a risk-off environment But what that does do is that pushes prices to where we want to be buyers Yeah, so this is now looking like bargain area if You know, there's risk on Yeah, because once risk comes back come back on if China and the US do, you know A deal over the weekend and into maybe the coming week or two and risk is back on then the US It's gonna look like a great buy. So We can kind of tidy up the charts now Go on to dollar yen Clear this up clear this up as well Right so right now we're down into this demand zone here We have some decent confluence at that level starting to see a bit of a pinball if you pull that back We've got you know support Inalignment with some demand and why is that important? Because other traders are gonna be looking at that and it's applying demand equation We've got a level of of of demand which we know is proof of value. It's proven to be valuable there proven to be a bargain here Potentially we could be a bargain right here But traders who don't trade supply and demand and don't understand about you know potential value on a price chart And they're just looking at levels of support and resistance as pretty much all traders you support them resistance What are they gonna be doing? They're gonna be looking to buy at this level right because it's a level of Resistance support support and they just basically blindly trade Levels of support and resistance. Why is that important because it adds to the supply and demand equation at levels? All right, so the only do we have some demand here as far as proof of value But we also have other traders looking to get in at this level which adds to the supply and demand equation question you have to ask yourself is Why is it gonna be more supply at this level than demand now the reason why would be risk off sentiment? Right, so risk off sentiment Would drive prices? You know lower right because financial institutions are not worried about Technical analysis. They're looking at you know getting Making sure that their Their profits are safe and taking money out of the market and maybe into like you said well, like I said basically risk off Assets and safe haven assets like the yen Swiss franc gold government treasury bonds, so when the technicals are back in play as far as Risk on then we're looking at buy trades So for now here's an opportunity if you want to get long on the dollar if you're looking to get short on the yen then really that's gonna be your Your nearest supply zone unless this creates a new low and Then what you'd have to do is wait for price to pull back into newly created supply zone as we made lower lower lows Lower highs and then you look to get short there. So right now buying opportunity for the US dollar Looking at the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss again risk being off and The Swiss franc strengthening in a risk-off environment We can see prices have just pretty much come past this this demand zone, you know clothes below it So what I'd be looking at Right now, it's but this is could be just potentially a stop hunt But I'm gonna get rid of this level here I'm gonna just add I'll just make this supply zone bigger as you've made You've got a high low Pull back and then lower low right here. So, um That's where we draw our supply zone So if we're looking at demand at the moment, what we'd need to do is look for price to either come down here and up into Look for buy trades around here or what we'd have to do is look for move up move down move up and then what we'd look for is Demand zones as we know that this is proof of value or that Level doesn't work then that would be your proof of value, but we need prices to actually make You know that kind of move before Looking at buying on you know on pullbacks So those that's pretty much the play for the dollar Swiss looking at the dollar CAD Dollar CAD Had some decent numbers. I think Employment this week. Let's go to Forex factory. I think it was Friday. Yeah, so employment change and unemployment rate The expectation was 11,000 and it came in at 106,000 massive. So Dollar CAD You know is looking to you know strengthen what you're strengthening against probably the strong one the strongest currencies anyway So not much has changed here at all. In fact, nothing has changed. We're still stuck between the Supply zone Demand zone here if you are looking to get long then on the on the US dollar Then you'd be looking for price to come really down to here before looking at any kind of long trades If you are looking at getting short Again, it would be up here But just be wary that prices have touched several times, you know So it weakens the level if you know, you wanted the ultimate, you know short trade I would say this level here is a great level to try and get short if you're looking to buy the Canadian dollar moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand cut rates didn't they ended up cutting rates This week the expectation it kind of surprised. I think the market there was RBN said Reserve Bank of New Zealand did say that they were quite dovish But the forecast thought that they were gonna hold and they actually ended up Cutting rates so it's 50 50 to be fair But the effect of that on you know, the market hasn't been as As pronounced as maybe We actually thought and I think the reason why is because I think they're just maybe the first central bank to really kind of cut And go go in a cutting cycle. I know Australian Reserve Bank of Australia are also quite dovish and they're looking to potentially cut and these guys are Probably just getting ahead of the curve when it comes to Trying to cheapen their currency Which it should have an effect on so what you want to do now really for the New Zealand dollar is look for short trades as they are in the rate cutting cycle, so let's delete this delete that Let's add a little bit. Let's see what we've got to see a little bit of a level around there So if you're looking to you know buy the the US dollar then what you'd be looking at is any intraday Self-trades Within this level Yes, as we've made lower highs lower lows lower low pull back into a level of supply before looking to get short Or you'd be looking at this level here Or here if you are looking to buy then Anywhere probably maybe a bit of a pullback into that demand zone would be the Be a buy trade and again, you'd probably do that based off of maybe some US dollar weakness or sentiment, but really the players to the downside as the New Zealand dollar are in a Interest rate potential interest rate cutting cycle, so they really want a Cheaper New Zealand dollar to boost exports Moving on to the pound dollar the pound dollar last week Did strengthen came up into this supply zone and then literally Reversed we were talking about this in the group Good setup, I didn't personally take this as you have to competing Covenancies one versus two in our in our in our book, but I think some traders did end up getting in short around here You can see where pretty much, you know sold off into now, you know this demand zone so As far as the Opportunities for this week If you're looking to buy the US dollar, sorry the British pound now is pretty much your opportunity But I'd be probably be looking at short trades, you know around here or around that level there Be where I'd be looking for short trades and a buyer of the dollar at the moment until proven otherwise But there could be some short-term Dollar US dollar that is A weakness But also in a risk-off environment one of the currencies that does tend to strengthen in a risk-off environment is the US dollar so Potentially this may not hold And if you are looking to be getting a buyer of the of the of the pound, I think what I'll do is I'll add This demand zone right here So around this one to nine round number is where you'd be looking for your next potential buy trade Let's clean this up a little bit as well. Put that there for now And I'll get that just to clean up the chart. So those are your Your demand zones and these are your pretty much your supply zones To look to get long or short Looking at now the euro dollar the euro dollar I was waiting for prices to come up to here last week. Obviously We didn't get what we wanted as far as an entry and prices did sell off now waiting for You know some sell trades. So right now in today, we're just looking at potential candlestick setups to get short. There is obviously the the Germany GDP numbers coming out this week. So if that is positive that could put You know some pressure on the the dollar But with the bigger picture as far as the European elections coming up You may see a spike up right and then a move down because European elections are really uncertainty and I think the youth I think Europe in general is isn't doing too well So we might get some short-term positive sentiment if if German GVP is as expected or Or basically better than expected, but it doesn't mean that Europe as a whole it is doing well If you know, I mean, so it doesn't matter if this level doesn't work out All you do is you look for shorting trades towards the Upper side The upper the master supply zone right here. So right now we're just looking at a short trade here If not short trades here, you are looking to be a buyer of the euro at the moment you'd be looking at probably that level there and Should I keep it there? Yeah, I'll just I'll just keep this here as well. So anywhere around these This zone here as you know, I'll I'll localize it one sec. I've been using that demand zone I'll use This one right here So if you are looking to be a buyer of the euro you'd be looking at pullbacks into that area as you've you know made higher highs higher lows See a pullback here and then high so it's proof of value at the moment If not, that would be the level to look to you know get long Moving on to the euro yen and the euro yen again risk-off sentiment Japanese yen does well in a risk-off environment You can see really the effect of that Come into play so If we are looking at Any kind of trades on this currency pair? Let's get rid of this. What you'd be looking at is There's a bit of a supply zone there There's no hidden supply around there. So what you'd have to really do is Look for a move for the euro all the way up into that level there before looking at a short trade And to be fair, I think this is a decent short especially with the upcoming risk off sentiment regarding Europe And the euro elections again euro yen is a short. I really wanted to get short up here I was hoping that prices came up to here before getting short But prices kind of went Without me so I'm just waiting for pullbacks if you are looking to get Short on the euro and long on the Japanese yen right because of a risk-off play Or if you're looking to buy right now now is pretty much the time around this, you know, it's one two three round number We could see some positive sentiment with the euro and potential You know trade negotiations being being sorted or at least maybe Not in you know as much focus as they were last week Moving on to the Aussie Dollar Aussie dollar It's just drifted, you know sideways bit lower this this this week and really to be it's to be expected Even though the Australian dollar central bank Australian central bank actually held rates. There was a bit of positivity overall. They are looking to cut rates is the is the tone so going on to the Updated charts probably I expect You know short trades on this So looking at prices really to come back up to that supply zone there And delete this Yeah, so that supplies I'm there before looking at getting short If you are looking to get long pretty much now is going to be the time You also have a bit of confluence at that level We're talking about Yeah, you can see where that level was acted as Support and resistance said it will be support resistance traders looking to trade within this zone as well so we've got value and we've got the Short traders technical analysis traders looking to gain probably at that level as well Finally it's the Aussie yen and The Aussie yen in fact what I did was I ended up changing this when there's data feed I think is It's a bit messed up so And I and if on every other chart that spike wouldn't have happened so what I've done is I've decided to move for the Aussie Yen is moved to Forex.com So this is what it should look like anyway on on on other charts So again what we're looking for at the moment This would be a supply zone right here as well What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna move this Down to here So what you'll be looking for this week if you are looking to take advantage of risk off sentiment is gonna be short trades around here in fact, you've got a level of support within that level of Supply sorry support resistance within that level of supply So Anywhere around here on an intraday timeframe chart is where you'll be looking to get short if not bit further up around this 78 round number or Around here if risk is on then this looks like a decent buy right now free is risk if risk does come back on and into the market like I said risk off sentiment It does push prices to where you want to be a potential buyer because Once things and risk comes back on and fundamentals are in play then you have to look at the Japanese economy right and interest rates and inflation and their policies on that and Compare it to the Australian dollar and even though what the Australian dollar are the Aren't doing too well when it comes to what they're looking to cut rates. I should say And weaken their currency, they're still way ahead of the Japanese yen fundamentally Yeah, so this could be a potential buy if if risk does come back on so that brings us to the end and Hope you enjoyed it. Please like please subscribe. Please share all your feedback is definitely welcome and I hope you guys have a great trading week. Take care