 Very good morning to you. Monday the 11th of November. Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. Usual drill for this morning, Monday. We're going to talk about the calendar. As you can see to the side of me, what are the main events for the week ahead? Where are the potential fundamental catalysts that could create some direction for markets? Because there's certainly quite a few things coming out. One thing not to forget is actually Veteran Day's holiday in the US. So US markets are closed today. So do take that under consideration in terms of your view and your strategies for this session in particular. Likely to be pretty quiet as we get through into later into the afternoon European time. But just before I go into the calendar and the other things we're going to cover because we're going to have a look at Trump, the US trying to trade war. We're going to have a look at some Spanish election results. A UK outlook downgrade that came late last week. And then an update on the general election polls is what's on the agenda from my side before then Sam comes on and looks through the charts more technically. But looking at the market open, how are things looking and shaping up? Well, not too much reaction overall. I mean, there are certainly some headlines, as I said, to go over. Not also without mentioning the violence continuing in Hong Kong, which has seen their local stock market fall at one point in excess of 3%. But the actual open, as far as the assets that we're looking at here, across the kind of FX commodity and the fixed income markets, is pretty quiet actually. A little bit negative in the equity index futures. However, we're already pushing off the lowest levels. The DAX in the center left did have a brief test of this S2 before then just bouncing back. Spanish banks a little softer. The squawk was just saying at the market open, as we've just gone through eight o'clock and the cash open, just given the result of the, again, kind of hung parliament situation that's developing in Spain. So it's even got worse for the socialist leader than what it was in the first place. It's kind of backfired in a much a Theresa Mayesque style. But overall, gold pretty flat, treasuries minor positive. So if anything, just very moderate risk off to the general asset class mix. What I mean by that is equities and oil touch lower, tea notes and gold touch higher, kind of reflecting that point of view. The currency markets though, the Dixie is flat at the moment. So not really showing any any way in much meaningful direction as yet. So let's go over the headlines, then we'll kind of bring all this back into the calendar of what to look out for. And the first thing I want to talk about is an update on where we are with the US China trade talks. You'll remember last week, we're touching all time highs. There was this kind of positive pricing in of a partial trade deal elevated even further by the idea of the US agreeing as per what the Chinese press was stating of the rolling back of tariffs. Now, remember what we were saying at the end of last week? We were a little bit more pessimistic about the view of Donald Trump actually concluding that matter as to fulfilling the request of China. And that pretty much played out to be the case at the weekend. Trump spoke and the president said that trade talks with China are moving on very nicely and that leaders in Beijing wanted to do a deal much more than I do. Trump also described as incorrect reports about how much the US are ready to roll back tariffs on China. So I don't find any of this particularly surprising. As we've said before, I think Trump definitely wants to assert himself and make sure that he is in control of this negotiation process. He also wants to appease his domestic base by remaining quite firm on the issue. So even though there's no smoke without fire, and I do believe that inevitably in time, tariffs will be either frozen or rolled back in order to keep the stock market where it needs to be this time next year for the election. For the moment, I think Trump doesn't really need to do too much because if you think about it, he's already done the job. Stocks are at record highs and he's managed to fire away several tweets last week saying that exact same fact. So if anything, he's kind of achieved his point. So now he doesn't even need to do a deal. He just needs to prolong it and then do it later by himself a little bit more time in my mind. So that's the latest there. Trump is speaking on Tuesday. I think it's the New York Economic Club speech that the president gives on a yearly basis. That normally acts as a pretty decent platform for the president to say his latest thinking about a variety of different issues. But of course, that would be one that the market will remain particularly sensitive to. And I would say, despite all the economic data that we'll look at on the calendar for the week ahead, it still remains one of the key catalysts for market sentiment and direction. So any updates that we get on the trade front need to be, you need to remain vigilant for. Otherwise, quick look around the globe. And as I briefly mentioned, China overnight, I should say more specifically Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Stock Index, saw a significant dip. I'm sure you've probably seen the viral videos already this morning when you've come in, but two protesters shot at point blank range by a police officer overnight. I believe one is dead. And it's one of the first times that the violence has kind of spilled out into the actual daytime rather than the usual nighttime protests. So continuation of violence, if almost escalating at the moment, has seen their stock market come under significant pressure, hasn't really come into our market. And in a sense, the way I'd look at this, if you're trading kind of Western American European products is that I wouldn't anticipate this Chinese story, even though it's getting worse there domestically to really impact our markets, not unless China forcefully starts to make more meaningful developments with military occupation within Hong Kong, which I think is still highly unlikely at this point. Or what if one of the US administration, as per Mike Pence, the VP did two weeks ago, comes out and says something quite critical of the mainland Beijing about their dealing with the situation developing in Hong Kong? Could that be a catalyst for the ongoing what has been more positive trade talks to break down once again if the US were to make an inappropriate comment on such a sensitive subject for the Chinese authorities? So there are two things probably I'd look out for if this is going to move our markets in that respect. The other thing in Europe, so coming a bit closer to home, Spain held an election over the weekend and it came just only six months after they had a previous election. Now, why did the socialist leader call that? Well, his party in the previous election had gone from 85 to 123 seats in the hundred or the 350 seat chamber, the comprises of Spanish parliament. Now, he thought that given the way things were going that he could call another election on the premise that he could solidify a majority government because of the difficulties experiencing and trying to get a coordinated coalition. Now, Podemos, the anti-austerity party, was the party that's been propping up the socialist party just given the number of seats within that chamber in Spanish parliament. Together though, given the results that have come out so far, they've lost 11 seats between them on Sunday, leaving them now 21 short of a majority, meaning that they are going to have to team up with some of the kind of smaller fringe parties to get a working majority to run government. So again, as I said right at the beginning, it's kind of reminiscent of Theresa May where everything was looking so positive. It felt like a good strategic move to call a snap election, only for that to be the absolute worst decision and a big backfiring on the government. And it's now they're in a weaker position than they've ever been in. Now, the point being though, as I said, the way it works, much like any democracy, is that because the socialist party in Pedro Sanchez has the most votes, he does get first rights of reserve if you'd like to try and form a government. The biggest winner of the election, and this is something of course that's been very reminiscent of European politics and the emergence of more right-leaning parties, the biggest winner on the night was a party called The Vox, which is this Spanish nationalist group they've made the biggest headway most recently through these recent elections in Spain. So, yeah, more difficulties I would say, a more fragmented parliament. It means that this political impasse in Spain is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and that is putting some of the domestic stocks in Spain in the Spanish Ibex under a bit of pressure this morning. But again, seemingly still a fairly isolated situation for Spain hasn't really seeped into general broader market sentiment at the moment. And I don't really anticipate that it would at this point, because I think the Spanish political mess has been evident for some time, and it's looking like it's going to be set to continue for the foreseeable future. Moving on, going to talk Brexit briefly. This was an interesting graphic that I shared at the weekend. Not sure if you did see it, so just to quickly recap, this is a graphic of cable pound dollar, and it's looking at a latest Bloomberg survey of 12 participants, i.e. 12 different banks, and their view about where would the pound against the dollar be on the outcome of different election scenarios. So the first one, the top one being a Tory majority, which is the baseline expectation. Remember, the broader market consensus is still that Boris will capture a majority government. The poll then at the weekend suggesting that's a 40% probability, so it's by no means an outright expectation. It's just the highest of all the possible options. Now, if a Tory majority were to happen, the average estimate is then bearing in mind the cable in terms of the futures this morning, so the spot not too far away from the price is trading around 128. A Tory majority, they say, would hit 134, i.e. then it gives Boris the greatest chance of being able to push through his deal in Parliament and get relevant backing to move into the implementation transitional phase of Brexit. A Tory coalition could be then still sterling positive, albeit only marginally. A Labour coalition, the same but in reverse, and each one of those scenarios is seen at roughly circa 25% to 30% probability. A Labour coalition would be 127. And one of the thinking here is that in a coalition, even though then that would lead to some positive developments potentially around a softer Brexit, what you're trying to do then is lessen the power of which Jeremy Corbyn would have, which would be a Labour majority, the worst case for the pound is what the banks think, even though it's the lowest probability, only 5% chance of happening. Just given the fact that we want to renationalise a lot of the companies, increase corporation tax, these kind of socialist led policies, huge monumental size government spending, which if you actually think about it, Moody's, at the end of last week, lowered their UK credit outlook to negative on Brexit paralysis and has made policy making less predictable. This comes as well as S&P and Fitch, they already have the UK country on negative watch. Also there was comments about the fact that they're removing away from more austerity and fiscal prudence because political parties, including the Conservatives, but more radical under Labour, want to significantly increase government borrowing, which given the situation with the negative outlook politically emanating from Brexit and the uncertainties that that would have on its potential outcome, it wouldn't be surprising to see sovereign downgrades to the UK. And so hence the reason why Corbyn led majority would be the most negative. The one thing I think that was quite interesting though, when you actually look at the access on the right hand side of this graphic, the actual response to the general election here you can see is relatively small I thought, bearing in mind Cable's trading at 128, the worst case scenario they see trading at 123, the best case scenario they see trading at 134. So either way I would say that's way more tame than certainly we have seen on some of the other big political occasions, but obviously these are just forecasts, proof will be in the pudding and we've still got a few weeks to go until we actually get the general election. One thing then with the general election, what's the current status with the opinion polls in my overall summary would be that nothing is really changing at this point in time. The ruling Conservatives still have a pretty decent lead, so just running news through a couple of headlines, the Conservatives had 41% support compared to 29% for Labour in the opinion poll published on Saturday in the Observer, so that's down just 1% for the Tories, Labour upper touch, the Lib Dems are third at 15%. The EU Gov poll for the Sunday Times show Conservatives at 39% so that's unchanged from the prior week. The Conservatives maintained a 12 percentage point lead over Labour from last week according to the Delta Poll National opinion survey in the mail and the BMG survey for the Independent on Sunday put the Tories on 37%, Labour 29, the Lib Dems on 16, Brexit Party on 9%. So all in all despite a lot of the noises being made as they've been ramping up their kind of domestic policy pledges to try and create I guess public opinion to side with them for the election is having very little to really move the needle as far as the polls are concerned for the time being. So all things remain equal for now. Moving on, I just want to talk about the calendar then because as I've already mentioned on Tuesday you're going to get President Trump talking at the New York Economic Club so again it's going to be key for what does he say about just domestic policy but this broader ongoing trade war that's going on with China at the moment but then there's another chap in this photo and that is Mr Jerome Powell and it's a big week for Mr Powell but not just him for a number of his Fed colleagues as well. Now on Wednesday Fed Chair Powell addresses the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and then he appears again on Thursday talking to House representatives. Now this is where he'll give his kind of update on what's the current economic conditions and he kind of gives further details as towards why the Fed is doing what it's doing and it's one of the first times he's spoken since the Fed opted to cut rates for the third time we saw what two weeks ago. So this will be the chance for politicians to really grill the Fed Chair. So not expecting a great deal but as you can see yes outside of those two events between Trump and Powell there is a whole slew of Fed speakers so today you've got Eric Rosengren, tomorrow Patrick Harker and Neil Kishikari who will be an FOMC voter in 2020 and then Thursday you get a whole dump of speakers Clarida Evans Daily Williams and Bullard all speaking so for me interesting again if you know your central bank strategy this is kind of the 101 of how someone like the US tend to operate given the potential significance and importance of the Powell speech on Wednesday what the Fed often do is they litter in a whole group of speakers the day after as a kind of insurance policy just in case the market misinterprets what Powell says Powell can't afford to come out and re-correct that stance himself because that would diminish his credibility so instead to get ahead of that they just list a whole load of speeches just in case. Okay let's go back to the calendar what else is there today as I mentioned originally it is the Veterans Day holiday so electronic trade will be open but on shortened hours but the bond market is closed in terms of the actual cash and if I just quickly jump over to the calendar I'll see if those guys that on the squawk can put together some kind of holiday schedule I mean on their calendar it says it's a non-market holiday but I'm pretty sure I read this morning that the bond market is in fact closed I assume then that the New York stock exchange is open as per usual but it might well lead to lower trading volumes otherwise moving forward beyond before I do beyond today we've got UK preliminary GDP coming out bit later this morning so just a quick look on the calendar what is expected so we'll just blow this up so you can see a bit more clearly 930 the data coming out so the three months and three months figure expected a 0.1 increase from the prior reading at 0.4% the year and year at 0.9% so not that I think this data is going to be particularly market moving but obviously you're likely to hear lots of politicians talking about this given the fairly lackluster gross conditions likely to give opposition parties plenty of ammunition to go at the government Tuesday then what have we got well actually from the UK not only do we get the preliminary GDP report for Monday we get UK jobs data Tuesday so that does include average earnings employment change claim account rate and unemployment rate you then get UK CPI on Wednesday and then you get UK retail sales I think is also coming out this weekend Thursday so you get the full plethora of top tier one economic data point Saturday UK once again if you are a sterling trader I think just an overall consideration that's still given the political backdrop unless those numbers are wildly out of line I'd be looking for them more to just kind of add to general market direction and to supplement that view fundamentally rather than them to be a real distinct catalyst of price movement in that respect moving on Wednesday what other things have you got well there are some interesting US data points coming out as well this week Wednesday you get US CPI data alongside as I mentioned Jerome Powell speaking at the Joint Economic Committee giving his testimony you then get from the US as well on Friday US retail sales empire state manufacturing and industrial manufacturing production so from the major US data really and speaker events Wednesday Thursday Friday that's really the key so very much just given the market holiday as well today in the States it's going to be a second half of the week where it's going to be more interesting so again be mindful of that and the landscape of where the market volume and activity is likely to lie for the rest of this week beyond today Chinese data you've got industrial production coming out of China Wednesday night going into Thursday also jobs updates so looking out for Aussie fluctuation overnight Wednesday night for any potential movement and that's pretty much it so some quite interesting things coming out of course you've also got European preliminary GDP coming out the German one coming out Thursday in particular of interest to give a bit of a reference point of where are at at the moment in terms of the severity of the downtone being experienced in the Eurozone so overall quite a few things to keep an eye out for so from a top level as a reminder looking out for any further updates on the trade side I think we're pretty much aware of the status at the moment there seemingly is a deal in the offering however Trump just looking to kind of just dial back a little bit the markets maybe overtly optimistic expectations of when it will exactly get done but the idea is it will get done he's just kind of prolonging it to manage the situation in his favor I would say then US major data Fed speakers all coming from really Wednesday onward UK data drop throughout the week and these are kind of the main things to look out for earning season is all but pretty much done now so there's nothing really to look out for on that regard okay that's it for me you can grab this calendar just go on my Twitter account below there's my handle if you are watching this on YouTube don't forget to subscribe to the channel as well for further updates throughout the week but I'll hand you over to Sam and he can talk you over the charts now in more detail thanks very much hello everyone good morning hope we've all had a good weekend better than arsenals anyway have a quick look over the DAX to start things off which is having a decent little push over the last half hour certainly from pushing low towards the s1 you can see a decent reaction from that area if we draw a line actually getting through Thursday's low and now we're back above the the asian session and level of resistance it'd be interesting to see if we can confirm a break above that which is looking like we're we're giving it a good go so equities in Europe anyway nice little nice little start to the week I guess potentially later on whether that be today or in the week it's worth having this trend on here you can see from Thursday to Friday to Friday evening a decent well-respected level of a trend line and and I've definitely had looked to have that on the the high that we're making now will be choppy as well as it's not a bad little line in the sand previous lows of Friday before a little false break and it's acting as a bit of resistance now so couple resistance levels where we're trading now the trend line to the upside as well the lows obviously other than the low the day you're looking back down towards last week and here I would say this is a key level line in the sand for the buyers to hold this week if we are to remain elevated up at these levels if that was to go it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world to see a decent push lower in stocks after a really good day last Monday you can see here from the weekend big push and that wasn't just in european stocks obviously we had that more so in in the US which here is the fourth there's the fourth I'm up there yeah that's what I'm saying trying to see where the weekend began a decent move higher there and we're up obviously these all time highs so like the the DAX worth getting on a potential trend line to see if that is to hold and the low of the morning goes back to those highs that we had from the SIP bit bit tricky I think to predict where the S&P is going to go this week as trade talks are going to be that main driver unfortunately starting to perhaps get a trend from those lows didn't quite make it now but just on the idea that we might start to get squeezed in from from both directions is something that I would be focusing on maybe waiting for that overall to break either way before getting a decent move as well if we were to break to the downside a couple key points I would have with keeping an iron 30 53 the high which was obviously that trend channel high from the 30th we retested it on the 1st of the month so that would be an important point and of course if we are to push higher today and break that trend line worth keeping an eye on the futures anyway at a 3100 which will be the first time we ever test that point incredibly having a look over to currency the pound obviously drifted lower last week still a nice looking trend from those recent highs that we've had really nicely well respected you can see from the beginning of the month so something I would absolutely look to have on a break of that trend obviously just then being aware of all these highs here on the hourly chart that I'd be keeping a watch on lower in the time frame down as well we had a decent yeah we go it was well respected from those lows from Friday evening so I keep this on from an intraday perspective but the pound last week it has to be said was you know relatively quiet even though we had obviously a good move following the the rate decision each other day was was pretty ranged about not much going on and unless we do get some serious developments I wouldn't be looking to go too aggressive on this market on today of all days but this trend line to the downside and upside is something that I would have marked up for the euro similar in in that push lower and it's going to put this on a 240 and we sort of had the the same thing that we've had all year we have a trend line to the upside while albeit it was relatively choppy on on the break you can see when maybe we have it this way looks a bit clearer you have a decent recovery like we did from 1st of October it then breaks and we can then have a look and start talking about maybe making new low for the year well that's the way it's gone this year anyway the low that we've got in mind I would say here looking at the low of that 15 almost reaching it today a decent level of support to bear in mind that a break in close below there could well see a further leg down to the upside and looking more 15 minute I'll just be keeping a watch on any of these retracement points you know the second test maybe of this 110 60 level which was the low of Thursday as well as an area to keep an eye on but you can see when we do certainly over the last two trading days when we break these lows we're coming back to test them later on so patience for the euro I wouldn't be one to to get up and chase and potentially you've got to say later on if we break these two levels here you know coming back to retest that in a couple of days could be a decent little opportunity to keep an eye on there I'm gonna look over at gold flirting near the high of the day but just struggling to really break through nothing doing yet we're still at relatively early on in the day of course and expecting relatively quiet one interesting levels I have to say maybe up towards that R1 1469 looks pretty key and then I probably would have on a trend line from those lows but really looking here more so into the back end of the session before wanting to really get involved in it Monday morning obviously not expecting too much to happen looking at this on that longer term chart and we just remove all the pivots let's put this on the daily chart and you can see just where we're trading now really key point we did close below there though it has to be said so on you know starting on a Sunday evening 11 o'clock electronic trade it looks relatively bearish on the fact that we have closed below this ultimately very key level so can the bears take over and is this now literally where we're trading a really really good opportunity to get short we'll have to to wait and see on the idea that it's a false break if we close back above 1466 could then well become a level for the balls to take over key level to the upside be looking at these previous lows that we broke through on that magic 1482 level if we're to hold where we are trading now I don't see much stopping us but for us to get a move down to 1448 silver you can see on that level where it came down to to trade obviously I mentioned I got long near and around this level obviously this has got a hold really and he would say for me to be ultra confident in it looking over at oil longer term little grind over the last few weeks those areas of support still something to keep an eye on just from the middle of the summer to then October as well up to where we're trading now has been so key last week you can see the breakdown area here looking middle of September before we finally pushed low on the 24th didn't get a close above their house significant is that going to be also worth having a trend on from those lows whether we can get down to test that at all this week or not time will will tell next key level to the upside I'd say is $60 so here looking at that daily chart 5764 and obviously those highs from last week very key and worth keeping an eye on looking on that intraday putting those pivots on for a bit more direction you can see just how every time we come up to that area we just cannot close above so something to keep an eye on and a watch on going forward certainly as well maybe more intraday obviously to get anywhere near that 58 we'd have to get through quite a key level which is acted as support as you see on Friday resistance in the early hours 56 95 5 cent away from the $57 handle and we are starting to perhaps get a nice little trend forming here so this is definitely something now just having a spot of this that I keep an eye on ideally though you want that volume in the afternoon to get a decent break of that we'll get the strategy report out obviously closer to midday but any questions before that obviously please do let us know I hope you'll have a good trading day and even better week ahead