 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another capsule, IR capsule for the Kankar IIS Academy. One of the biggest events of the century, you could say, is the Communist Party Central Committee's meeting in Beijing, which started on the 6th. I said century because this unprecedented situation where the leader of the Communist Party is and the president getting an unprecedented third talk. Of course, President Mao or Chairman Mao as he was known, he continued for many years from the revolution till his demise. But after that, a term was fixed for Chinese presidents, that is, two terms maximum. And this is the first time after that constitutional amendment, Xi Jinping is being given a third term. This was expected. We had known this for a long time. Of course, there was in between some rumors of a coup and some people said that he was in jail after his trip to summer final. But all that turned out to be a wishful thinking. And although he left Beijing after the pandemic for the first time, there was no threat to his presidency, all that was just rumors. So on the 6th, we saw him addressing the Congress, 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party with all the delegates properly present. And we could see that he is the commander in chief of everything, the military, the civilian, the government, the party, everything. All this will be formalized only on the 23rd when the Congress ends. But this has become the only leader before him who was unquestioned like that was Mao. After that, there were several leaders, but there was a certain amount of collective leadership and some of them were more prominent than the others. I'm not going into all these details. But Mao, the great hemsman, he was called and he continued till 1976. Then in 1977, he proposed collective leadership and after that there were three or four presidents and then Xi Jinping who became president 10 years ago. And because the background was that he was an elitist kind of Communist Party family, but then he opted to work in the villages, in the communes and so on. And he built himself up as a leader and came back to Beijing. And he rose in the polling bureau, became the president and all the official persons, military, commission, the party, general secretary, and the president. So all these positions he held and unlike the other leaders who have all these two term limitation. In his case, that limitation was lifted by the by an amendment of the Constitution. So it was very clear that this was done for the president to give him a third term and the formality of it will happen on the 23rd. But now the whole Congress of this one week has already been choreographed. What it is because what decisions will be taken has all been decided by the leader who may also be designated as a chairman. The only other chairman that China had was Mao Zedong and therefore he is going to be the second chairman if he's designated as chairman of the party. And of course the Mao was called the helmsman, that was specially for him. But some designation like that might be given to him and there's a general feeling that he may continue not only for the next five years and maybe another five years he may become president for life because there is no restriction on tenure. So after he became president he decided to give up the collective leadership and it took on the reins of the government in his own hands. And there was a Politburo Standing Committee of seven members, which used to take all the major decisions. So he downgraded the Standing Committee of the Politburo and he started depending only on the 25 member Politburo. So it was bigger as the cabinet, there was a cabinet but its importance was also reduced. So in 2017 he was designated as the core leader. So another promotion he got in 2017. And then Xi Jinping thought on socialism with characteristics, special characteristics, Chinese characteristics. And that became again something like Mao that like Mao's thoughts, the red book, etc. So he was being elevated from one level to the other. And so he took control of the party, the government, the civilian life, the military and the academic works. So all this he put into his own hands and there was no protest or if there was protest probably we don't know about that what happens to protesters. But he was able to overcome whatever opposition there was. And it was in 2018 that National People's Congress amended the constitution to remove the term limit for the president. So there was no opposition to all this. And then COVID came, we are an absolute authority to deal with this. And then he moved against privatization to a great extent. He started talking about socialism but common prosperity for all. So in a sense that the unbridled capitalism which was prevalent there of major private companies, land holdings. Very many big billionaires lost their money and some of them went to jail. And so he said not capitalism that was adopted after 1972. But a new kind of socialism and common prosperity for all in the sense that too much of wealth cannot be humiliated by individuals. And he gave indications that he will go back to communism and socialism with the characteristics of the special characteristics of China. So 10 years of Xi's rule was glorified, glorious decade, leader-centric propaganda, complete sway over the government. And therefore it was expected that he would formalize his leadership at this particular party congress. So though the congress is still continuing and decisions we will know only later, the indication that we get from the speech he made on the first day. And that is what the world is analyzing. Everybody is analyzing, writing every word of it. And trying to figure out what his policies will be. As we pointed out that the speech was mainly to his own people and not to the world. But the world seems to be analyzing it and trying to figure out what kind of policies he will follow. He did not mention any country in these speeches in the speech, but that is not customary to name other countries in the party's speech. And therefore no country is mentioned, but it's obvious who he means when he uses certain expressions. So he laid out a decade long vision. So he is not thinking only of five years, but maybe 10 years. And though he was optimistic that this will all work out. But unlike in the previous speech which he made in 2017, he mentioned many hurdles and problems that may come in the way. So in a way, warning his people that the next 10 years may not be as easy as the last 10 years. Because there are developments abroad and there are prices abroad and therefore he was preparing his people to prepare themselves for a difficult time ahead. But he committed himself to boost in China's economic and military strength. All these words have been analyzed by people what it means, boost in China's economic and military strength, self reliance in science and technology. Then he warned of external threats, which he did not do last time. He didn't say who the external threats were, but he warned of external threats increasingly turbulent world. He attributed the difficulties that China may face in the future. He could be optimistic at the same time he mentioned some of the difficulties that may happen. But his vision of 2035, so he looks up to that period. And he says, I'm quoting him, he said in the by 2035 he'll significantly increase economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities and comprehensive national comprehensive national strength. So national strength will be increased and as elements of economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities and a comprehensive national strength is what he has promised. Then he said that China will join the most innovative countries with great civil rights and strength and science and technology. So strength and national security, so every aspect technology, science, economy, military, strength and national security and actually basic modernization of the armed forces. So all this lays out a plan, which is a very ambitious plan. He speaks about differences, he speaks about difficulties, but he has laid out this vision as something that he proposes to accomplish during his next term and probably another term. And that was the general layout of the situation that he presented. So no country was mentioned, but we know that he's referring to the United States. And then later he referred to neighborhood, there was probably there is some reference to Pakistan reference to India, etc. No country was mentioned, but he expected difficulties. But the most important issue that he addressed was Taiwan. And that was very significant because their policy Chinese policy is that there is only one China and that it has to be unified Taiwan has to be reunited with China. And the only new thing that he said was China would never promise to renounce the use of force. So he put it negatively in the sense that he did not say we'll use of force. So he said, we will not China would never promise to renounce the use of force. In other words, we are willing to use of force if necessary, which was directed solely at interference from outside external forces, although Beijing would continue to strive for peaceful reunification. So when he said there are problems about reunification, he did not attribute it to the people in China or Taiwan, but to the external forces. And we know who the external forces are definitely United States. So resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is for the party a historic mission and an unshakable commitment. The wheels of history are rolling on towards China's reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Very significant statement because it's a historic mission, unshakable commitment. All these words are very meaningful, very loaded and the wheels of history are rolling. So obviously he has some dates in mind till then he may wait, but after that you cannot stop it and therefore there'll be reunification and rejuvenation. He kept repeating this that we were successful in the last 10 years, but next 10 years will be even more successful. So he kept referring to strong defense of the decade and rejuvenation of the party and the country. And his reference to neighbors, he said that he wants enhanced friendly ties, mutual interest and converging interest with the neighbors. So kind of peaceful policy towards neighbors. We will enhance the military strategy capabilities for defending Chinese sovereignty, security and development interests. So that's a warning to the neighbors like India that we will enhance the military strategy capabilities for defending Chinese sovereignty, security and development interests. So we're talking about the, about Xi Jinping's assessment of the global situation and he said that the world was in a flux and there is backlash against globalization. There's a tendency towards unilateralism and protectionism are mounting. And formation of blocks, you know for two, of course he didn't speak about the quad by name, but he has that in mind obviously opposes the forming of blocks and exclusive groups that forget particular countries against particular countries are building the particular countries. So that is the assessment as far as the world is concerned. So he mentioned the dangers globally and also talked about the new world order, which is emerging and he placed himself right in the middle of it. And though he didn't have these difficulties, he promised these people a prosperous time ahead. Then there was a one particular event during the Congress on the first day, which has hurt India because they showed a documentary of Galwan. There's a man called Keefabao, Commander Keefabao who was brought into the party Congress. Now he came, we don't know. So he attended the meeting, not only that, he was shown in Galwan fighting against Indian soldiers. So this was how he has included and why it was done at a time when there is tension between India and China is obvious. They wanted to get some publicity for that. And as you know, it's a politically significant move at a time when we are still remembering what happened in Galwan. We lost 20 soldiers. Chinese also lost soldiers, but we don't know how many. But the hero of Galwan was exhibited at the Congress. Of course India was not referred to, but we know that out of the five points of disengagement taken and friction points in five places. But still there are two more places remaining engaged, not disengaged yet. And there is criticism that India has conceded a land to the Chinese. So it's a complicated matter. But without referring to this particular incident, he was exhibited there like the Olympics. Also, a soldier was on marching showing as a Galwan hero. So this is disturbing for India. But at the same time, he did not acknowledge the country, but this was a friction point for us as far as the party Congress is concerned. So what's going to happen is that after Mao's reign until 1977, here is a leader who is aiming higher than Mao Zedong. And he is assuming all the authorities that Mao had in a modern world, in a modern sense. So he said that there was a shift in Chinese economy. And he was dealing with these problems. And we talked about China and its self-reliance, like our Atman Arbaer also. And global competition in order to succeed. So he mentioned the need for us to compete with other countries. And another indication was that he was going to increase the birth rate. As you know, China had restricted one child formula of family could have more than one child. It's two children. And now we feel that the population is thinning out and therefore they won't have more children and aging population. And so they want a young generation also. So he's going to suggest that there will be no control over family planning as such. Then the whole thing is clearly that he's looking at the words that he used was he was looking at great power status for China. And of course there was no reference to the United States directly. But he talked about the conflict with great powers in order to assume greater authority for himself. So what you're seeing from this speech, because it has so many elements, it's very difficult for us to cover all this in a short time. But this will be studied for a long time to the two hour speech. And I just picked up some of the some of the points. So what is unmistakable is that he's aiming to be higher than Mao or the status that will be we don't know. But China has become much stronger. And therefore he felt that he must brief his people what the next five years would be. And since there is no free press in China, everybody will read his speech with great interest, because that is the only source you can get or what he has achieved. So he actually reported the big things that he has achieved in the last 10 years. And he indicated very clearly that he's ready to fight for exposition. And though there are risks and challenges. So the last years were difficult, but we succeeded and we have to face up to new challenges. So that is the real essence of what he said, and all these decisions that will be taken during the Congress will definitely be online with what he had stated. So it plays the issues before the people and the structural reforms necessary and how he will fight hegemony and group policies. And China demanded supply chains, maintenance of supply chains, that is why they are very strong. So the message was that he's on top of all issues, including Taiwan. And of course he didn't speak about Russia or Ukraine, the relationship with Russia etc was not mentioned. And what is it that we have to learn from it? That is something that our experts are studying at the moment. So we should be aware of the fact that India-China status quo for difficult relationship is continuing. How is he going to deal with it? How is he going to develop trade with India? All these remain to be seen. So authority and power is virtually seeking that. What he's saying is that if you give me the authority for the next five years or ten years, these are the things that he will accomplish. And I'm sure the members of the Congress must be commenting on them. All of them must be praising him for all this and that we all know at the end and there will be some decisions taken. So in other words, what I was trying to do was that the Congress itself, we will have to study once it is over. But the speech alone will give us an idea of what Xi Jinping is planning to do. And the news to us is that we have to be prepared for a strong and powerful China next door to us. There will be a long-term problem for India and we need to work on various aspects. You have to decide on your friends, you have to decide on what kind of relationship you are with the United States. Because if China grows from strength to strength and Russia is with them, we need to fortify ourselves with good friends elsewhere. And we do it very carefully, systematically. And we are also determined just like the Chinese leadership. So that way there is something common. We also have a vision of a glorious India. Prime Minister is also talking about 50 years. Now this is the 75th year when the 100th year comes, what India would be. So that kind of a vision India also has. And here the not a democratic leader, he does not have to seek reelection. So he has a better chance of implementing his vision. But then in a system like that, how much can he deliver? And what will be the nature of the situation when he finishes his five-year term, all these remain unclear. But you may like to note all these points about the speeches and then relate it to the developments, the conclusions of the conference. And you can be sure of some questions being asked in your examination on this very significant event. And therefore I suggest that you read the speech and understand the implications of it. There are plenty of analysis available. As many experts there are, there are analysis available. And you must have a comprehensive understanding of the things to be expected from Xi Jinping's third term. Thank you.