 So I'd like to introduce our speaker here today. It is a pleasure to have President's Professor of the School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Distinguished Sustainability Scholar and the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, and recently retired Vice Dean of the Baird Honors College at Arizona State University. So she's been very active in many hats there at Tempe. She received her PhD at UC Santa Cruz, I'm sorry, Santa Barbara, what am I saying, Santa Cruz? I'm looking at how. Santa Barbara, an anthropology working in the numerous region of the American Southwest, which you may know is over just before you get to the Rio Grande, and initially focusing on ethics, which I remember her as, because we actually work together, but she doesn't want to talk about ethics anymore. But she brought it out into the investigation of many things, including long-term stability, change, and resiliency. So we're going to be hearing a lot about that today. For years, she ran a project with Michelle Hedman, also at ASU, collaborating in the Eastern Membrace region, again, of Southwestern New Mexico, where they investigated many aspects of long-term change over three centuries, tens to the 13th centuries. What is stunning about her CV, and it gave up counting the number of National Science Foundation grants she had. So I've summarized it. Since 2001, she's had an NSF or more every year. 2001. And since 2009, she's been a PIL of four NSF grants, overseeing millions of dollars. I mean, one was, I think, 7 million, one of her projects. It's a lot of money. Not for her appeal. No. No, sadly. She learned how to work with others who got through the big bugs. Maybe she'll give you a little primer on that over a dress afterwards. Most of these projects, which I think we're going to get a little taste of today, talk about large-scale questions of change that reach well beyond their appeal, as you would imagine, but include things like K through 12, K through 12 teaching projects, a wonderful project on that. Desert cities, knowledge-based archaeological data, landscape archaeology, human eco-dynamics and resilience, climate change, continuity, and long-term sustainability. Many topics that I know all of you sitting here have an interest in. One more, please. Most recently, she's led two interdisciplinary research teams. The first addressing these are her words. Social ecological issues concerning resilience and sustainability for prehistoric small-scale farmers in the US southwest and northern Mexico. And this focus on the lessons learned for contemporary issues of social change, vulnerability, diversity, and cultural trade-offs. The second team focuses on the impacts of climate change and climate challenges across the globe, with scholars across not only the US southwest, but across the northern Atlantic regions, the islands, Iceland, Greenland, Barrows, and Scotland. So a completely different environment. You can see that she's a global scholar, a truly good old scholar, not just working in the American Southwest. Wonderful as that is. Dr. Nelson has examined aspects of the status of women in science, specifically in archaeology, and served as chair of the Society for American Archaeology's committee on the status of women in archaeology. When, in 1994, she co-edited the very classic book, Equity, Issues for Women in Archaeology, which was published by the AAA, the first big study of that material. So she was there in the early days of that work, along with some of our own colleagues. Here, well, I'm here. We haven't seen quite here yet, but maybe so. She's a fellow American Association for the Advancement of Science and a very active member. She's been recognized for her teaching excellence in three different awards, A-S-A-S-U. I'll take that for a couple of times quickly. Centennial Professor, ASU Permanence Association Professor of the Year, and the ASU Presidents' Professor. So in her own right, in her own teaching, she's also excelled. She's published, of course, widely and broadly, six books and over 70 scholarly articles accompanying these. She's continuously worked for her university, as you know, the dean in the Honors College, but on many, many committees in the university and department, as well as extensive service for the SAA, plus other agencies and foundations. She served on the Executive Board of the SAA as treasurer for the Archaeology Division of the AAA Association, the Archaeology section of that, and is board member of the Anthropology section of the American Association for Advancement of Science. And her work in the Honors College, which is a sort of a special section of the ASU, illustrates a special focus and interest on education, promoting young scholars, in addition to promoting archaeology. So she's a classic example of some of the really dedicated teaching and helping all students while being a first class scientist. Two quick examples of her recent work are illustrated into our old titles on kind of reference. One is 2017 published, Fostering, Synthesis, and Archaeology to Advance Science and Benefit Society. And in 2015, climate challenges, vulnerability, and food security both published in the PNAS with other colleagues, but clearly showing her broad and deep scholarship. And on personal note, we worked together both in graduate school so we've been good friends for a while. And so I'm very pleased to have her here and I think we're particularly honored to have her here because she is, as you can tell, a pretty busy person even though she's winding down on some things. She still has a lot of projects going on. So I really hope you'll enjoy and welcome Dr. Peggy Nelson for her talk titled Non-Inatural Disaster Looking for the Past to the Future. So thank you very much. Can you see the slides that came with that? Yeah, I'd quite like to see your faces because if you start to go like that, you might have to change that. So thank you very much because if you see that I've talked about this before and I'm so happy to be here, we worked together as graduate students in the university in the 1970s. So we've been in there for a very long time so it's a great pleasure. And I notice from you, I think it was May who got me involved being the head of the technology. What's it for? Women and things. Women and archaeology. We started that. Thank you. That was a good start to something interesting to think about. In the precedence of the National Academy of Science in 2015 is the foundation that I'm going to talk about today. So there is a lot of detail in that article and I'm going to skim over the top at this level. But if there's anything that you would want me to talk about after I can't get you to answer any questions about how we got to where we did with the announcements or the reception and how we got that, in the article, in the BNAS article, there's a link to their data archive. And I archive every bit of data that we used for this study so you can see how you can catch together comparing Greenland to the Air Force. How does that happen? And you can see it in the data archive. So let me begin. In August of 2017, Hurricane Harvey, which was a category store in Texas, Louisiana and parts of Central America. In the U.S. alone, it cost $125 billion in damage. Over 200,000 houses were destroyed. Three quarters of a million people were displaced. 39 people died and many, many more were injured. This is a neighborhood in Houston, Texas. Five years earlier, Hurricane Sandy, which is sometimes called Superstarch Sandy, hit the Atlantic seaboard with incredible force after it had blown through a good deal in the Caribbean. It cost $72 billion in damage, and then as well as displacement, infusion, hunger, injury, and 233 people died from Hurricane Sandy. I'm going to get started on our Delta talk. I promised to raise the mood, but I wanted to start with what I think is fundamental, is that all of us have to care about this. All of us have to think about it, but we are learning and knowing and how we can make a contribution, whether it's to this or something else. But if you listen closely to the radio, or if you watch the news and you hear talking heads and you think, that's not right, I know better than that. I'm an archeologist. I look at the long term. I know that that's not true. We have to be in there having a voice and talking about how to make decisions better. So that's what's the foundation of the work that we're doing here. We wanted to look at whether these kinds of impacts are inevitable, whether we just have to sit and wait for another natural, political, natural disaster to occur, if they're occurring in ever greater ways. So it's going to matter to us even more over time. Disaster managers are very concerned about vulnerabilities, vulnerabilities being the susceptibility of people to harm from stresses, but also to the absence of capacity to adapt. This is something that came up. I would very much to the Paradise fighters. The Marion Paradise kept saying, this was a horrible, horrible disaster for all of us, which parts of which we could not avoid, but we did not have the ability to adapt. We had to establish the capacity to adapt. I think that was very harmful. Not only the people lost their homes, but they didn't know what to do next. So how do we actually evaluate the vulnerability? Disaster managers say this is what is critical to understanding the impacts of challenges. How do we evaluate the vulnerability created by people? What it said is a predictor of the impact of climate challenges or the other kinds of challenges on us as people. I think others on our team, the team that did this project, think that archaeology and historical studies can offer a way because we studied long sequences. Long sequences of climate, environment, and society. So in those sequences, in this particular case, we are trying to understand the challenges and vulnerabilities that caused them to be big impacts. We can actually look in our sequence, identify the biggest climate challenges, characterize the periods for those challenges in terms of vulnerabilities, and then see what happens after the challenge. Is the vulnerability, when it's high, or are the impacts high? When it's low, are the impacts low? Given the same kinds of skills conveying to these challenges. I wanted to quote from the disaster manager here because I think it captures where they are and how they contribute. This is a quote. It's not so much exposure to environmental risk that causes disaster, but the inherent vulnerabilities arising from social, political, and economic processes. So as archaeologists, we can see that and say, okay, we need with our centuries long sequences to assess that statement. Assessing that statement, if we can, we can support the disaster management community in making stronger cases for reducing that vulnerability. So this afternoon, I want to talk about a collaboration. It's a kind of unusual collaboration. Between two teams, the first is the Iceland Greenland Faroe Islands Group that's called NABO, the North Atlantic Cultural Organization, working in the sub-article. Collaborating with a Southwest group working in different Salinas, and I'll show you them now where all of these are. I just wanted you to have the names. We are called Long-Term Voluntary Transformation Project, Southwest Group. And we got together because when you go to conferences, we met at a conference. We were nodding our heads like this, saying, oh, we're talking about the same thing. We're all interested in climate challenges. We're all interested in vulnerabilities. So let's work together. Let's come together and see if it's possible for us to find patterns that transcend one region or the other. If we can find patterns that are created across the Southwest and the North Atlantic, totally different environments, totally different climates, completely different cultural traditions, people, et cetera. But if we can find patterns that transcend those differences, then we can make a contribution to the disaster management community that can't be dismissed as just, oh, that has to do with the Southwest, or that has to do with the North Atlantic. Let's move it for us together. Which I think is equally important is that we all believe that archaeology can make a contribution and needs to make a contribution. We believe that by the knowledge we gain from long sequences, we can inform better decision making in a different world. So that's why people kind of shake their heads and say, really, the North Atlantic and the Southwest, there's an L between those places, which is ideal. Which is ideal, and there's nothing to see if there's similar patterns. So what we did was look across each case, there's seven cases there, look across each case for the most extreme climate challenges that people faced. They weren't the same kinds of challenges, so the Southwest was shrouded in the North Atlantic, it's cold, but you can imagine my ace joining us. Look for the climate challenges that were the most extreme. We're characterized by vulnerability and vulnerability is a big turn. First it means to get that point of interest where you're at this point. It's the probability that something can happen because you're stressed or because you don't have the capacity to adapt. We go and look at the vulnerability from food shortage. We can't be vulnerable to everything. We take food shortage because it's close to the climate challenges. It's part of the international efforts in security and all kinds of things, especially related to disaster management. And because we were all artistic, so the data were available. And we can talk about how we can compare our cases. So we have our climate challenges, we have the vulnerability for, and then characterize social change in the interest and security of the climate challenge to see whether the vulnerability was right or not. It was a really simple role to have to be because we weren't taking such important cases. So let me tell you about the different cases here. We used three areas in the North Atlantic, the Faroe Islands. This is just north of Scotland. Iceland and Greenland. And actually, just so you know, when I started working with them, I didn't know that Iceland was the small country and Greenland was the big country. But whatever it is, I also like to go to Iceland, which is a wonderful site of this. In case you ever want to collaborate with somebody, pick somebody in the place you really want to visit. So we worked on the foreign sequences there from the 9th century in Iceland Faroe's 10th century starting in the 10th century in Greenland some later. Going all the way into the 19th century. Of course, people settled around the 19th century from the Northwestern Europe. We call them the Vikings. They sailed from Northwestern Europe to the North Atlantic Islands with animals, with grazing animals, with grain to be agriculturalists and to raise animals as part of their persistence in harmony. Here's a photograph of a farming settlement. This one is in Iceland right on one of the purists. And people raised cattle and grew all kinds of grains. Here we are in Greenland. This is the first one in Greenland also on the pure. Do you think it's hard to see sites here in California? It's really hard to see sites in Greenland. Everything is covered. But you can see the little buffitas. Those are actual buffitas that had not yet been excavated. In addition to animals and grains, people to some extent changed over time on seed animals. In Iceland and in the Faroes, they kept that sort of balance against grains that we have raising. But in Greenland, we got out of control. We were late in the occupation and late in the occupation, we were eating 80% of our diet compared to that because it was over abilities that they created themselves. They also maintained connections to where they come from for the church. The church sent bishops from north and west Europe to Iceland and Greenland up until the very late 13th century when the last bishop left Greenland and the church school lost its connections to Greenland. But they maintained its connections in Iceland and the Faroes. And then there was a lot of training. People, the north got food from north-west Europe and they sent ivory. Well, the economy of earth-west Europe changed and people got their ivory elsewhere. And there's so much equity in that. And the climate challenges that people face are just exactly what you suspect. The North American South West we used four regions there that hold calm. That number one you recognize a little more of California there. Here's Arizona and New Mexico. There's I was just telling you what I'm doing standing in front of the slides. There's a lot of electrical shocks. I just have to use it. This is a hold calm region in Central Arizona. So Tucson is right here. I put the southern end of it in Phoenix is up here. Here's the Nimbres region where I did most of my work. The Eastern Nimbres region where I ran a lot of projects is right here. This is the Rio Grande. Here's the Salinas area. And this is the Zuni region right here. The area. We put on four of those cases. Across the Southwest the landscape is to my area to Aaron. But it varies quite a lot in different kinds. It varies from a low desert. This is the hold calm region. It's not always that beautifully great. Here's the basin range. This is the Nimbres River Valley. And people farm red long. Where you see those green strip of trees they farm along that area. In this kind of most farming is right along that River Valley is in the base of the Bay Area. Up on the plateau. So this is the Zuni region right here. Really beautiful. When you see pictures in the Southwest you should see this plateau area with beautiful sandstone plateaus. And then the Salinas area is the one that's right on the plains. Right on the edge of the desert it's really flattening out the plains. And this is one of the big permanent historic Salinas publics. We use purity from the 10th century to the 16th century. And by the 10th century that everybody was farming they farm it in from a lot of different ways. Water management was quite related to some of this. Which is part of the vulnerability which some farming was just done by a great far. A lot of chin farming. We saw all the different kinds of farming. This is the lowest investment technologically and therefore really the lowest needle. This is the highest investment technologically. This is the canela system irrigation system in the home of which some of the garden use supported is the biggest canal. A pretty used family canal system in all of North America. It was highly effective for sometimes people to get back to that. People graze primarily corn but also appreciate all the things that they were trying. They grew a lot of domesticated plants and also managed some local plants that grew along the property and people hunted and focusing on our adapters which are deer and elk and canela brown corn and also rats. Rabbits were a big part of the diet. At least from the embrace area rabbits were about 80% of the time of the canela. These are all in embrace so in the 10th to 11th century these were the insides of holes. This one that was a U.S. standard. Across the Southwest people lived and built settlements that vary in size and design for a single story public layout. This is what the memories settlements were to look like. This is actually a picture of the country where the memory sites were to look like. This background is a big memory village. To multi-storey publics this is zoning in the 1880s. The single structures isolated one of the other called canals where the floors are set full of ground surface in front of the walls where the grounds are dug in and ground and it is middle marching. Instead of balls it's house styles where people lived clustered together in settlements in sizes ranging from just a few dozen people to thousands. In Missouri I have a special comparison I don't know if you've heard but a couple of those. And of course the climate people faced was the climate challenge they faced was dropped. I used the climate challenge I wanted to use the word shocks because that's what it seems like to me but the climate people say you can't use that. So if I say shocks I don't mean it it's just the way I think about it. But the climate challenges and the biggest challenge in the Southwest is drought. There's some flooding challenges in the Hong Kong region in the mid-race a little bit but drought is really the biggest climate challenge. So we didn't use the data that were available on flooding because it wasn't from every area and droughts were. Identify the droughts separately across the areas between the coolers and the way in between. So we use all of these cases to say does the scale of all the no-dies prior to a challenge predict the scale of impacts from that challenge. So we start first with the climate events. We first identified 13 climate challenges 7 in North Atlantic 6 in the Southwest and these dates are the initiation date of the challenge. So in the Southwest we used tree-raining proxy reference or precipitation and we selected from that record those events that were at least 15 years in length. So highly deviating highly from the man at 15 years long. And weren't experienced in the previous 400 years. We used the 15-year mark at least 15 years because we know in the Southwest people can store corn for 4 to 5 years. It can store corn in 15 years. So that had to be other kinds of solutions. We won this the major, major climate challenge. And at 400 years because we were trying to eliminate social memories playing very much role in people's ability to adjust to a climate challenge. We wanted to create a situation in the data that over really wasn't the thing that you thought was wrong. Just to show you this just illustrates the time frame we selected the bars show the gray bars are a little bit less looked at less dramatic brightness but still very extreme in the black or extremes. And so the first time we hit one is 15 years in length. It happened in the previous 400 years. It's right here. This is actually 1127. And the second one happened is about 200 years, 200, 1127 to 115 years later. And the reason I want to show you this one. This is how we had to represent the information. We were able to represent the same way both for all city cases. And in the memories case there were two climate challenges. Of course, since it had to be 400 years and this is only 150 years that meant that this one was significantly more of a challenge than that one. So in two cases in the embrace both big challenges are much bigger than that one. And just jump to the end of my talk. Give it all away which I'm not supposed to do but whatever. This, in this period which we call the embrace one people have huge vulnerabilities and they experience enormous embrace. In this case, which was an even bigger climate challenge, they have low vulnerabilities and you can't even see anything in the archaeological record that suggests that they're less of a climate challenge. So in this golden we didn't know it was going to come out that way but that's the way it came out. That's exactly what we were looking for. So just let me go back and capture the North Atlantic. The Atlantic is not my area I have to use my notes to tell you about the climate goodness. The climate sciences identified extreme events and regime changes. You also have the climate regime changes happening during the period 900 to 1900. Extreme events were identified as large deviations from the previous experience long-term that hadn't been experienced in 200 years. They used 200 years in part because their deviations were so extreme. And the regime changes were events that were the first extreme deviation from the previous world like the onset of the rural ice age. So that's the way the climate scientists came up with the 7 climate challenges periods in the North Atlantic. So these 13 days are for our starting point. It gives us a time structure to work with. We then take that time structure before this. What are the vulnerabilities that are happening before these start dates? To do that we identified eight variables. Three that were population resource variables and you can read them, I don't need to read them to you but I can just give you an example. The diversity of available food means how many different kinds of plants and animals people have available to them. So what we saw being the supporting food security if it was narrow, we're seeing it as creating a vulnerability. Remember there's a difference between a vulnerability and the actual experience of each shortage. The vulnerability just means that you could your likelihood goes up but not that you're actually experiencing a food shortage. So these three variables. And then we have five social conditions that we determined in all seven cases could impact food security. And again you can read them to yourself I'll just go to a little last one. Barriers to resource areas. These are social barriers. These are not physical barriers they are physical in the population resource. These are social barriers meaning someone owns that. You want fish eggs in Iceland sorry not fish eggs, bird eggs I control that area I might let you have sweet bird eggs but I might not. So that's what's meant by barrier to resource barriers. So to turn this into an analysis of vulnerability we get a qualitative ranking of each of the variables that quantified that into a vulnerability load. So the state mobility if you had high mobility you could score a one that's not creating a vulnerability to you for food security. If you had very little ability to move around Alaska to get to resources to get away from problems to make connections to people if you had very little ability to move around you scored a four for every one of these eight variables two and three are as you can imagine right between them two plus four one and three plus four one. So it's one to four so a score of eight we then add them together a score of eight means you have no vulnerability. None of these variables are contributing to vulnerability to food security. That doesn't mean you're not hungry just means you're not vulnerable to future change in that state of food security okay. If you had a 32 you're really bad. That means you have a four for every variable and so you have a high vulnerability level. The coding was based on expert knowledge of place leaders using evidence of archeological historical records and this is what you can go to the PIS I wouldn't see it all but I just want to tell you that literally to do this kind of collaboration we had a very big table we had 19 people sitting around the table and we'd say okay mobility zoom what's the score you give and what evidence you give and we'd go around the table and we'd refine and refine and we'd be very confident that we're all trying to do the same way so it's extremely time consuming to do this kind of work. This is the paper that I'm talking about today because it didn't take long to get accepted it took less than a year to get accepted and published. It took a long time to get there because there was so much discussion. I had to understand the people who were working real in it what they were talking about they had to understand me and what I felt in my brain so it's a fascinating way to learn about another place of a bunch of other places. So once we done all this scoring and we had a number for every one of the cases we would be close to ours we can then use those data in a variety of ways. So this shows this bar chart shows the mean value across all the cases across all 13 of our cases what's the mean value for a variable 1, 2, 3, 4, remember these are the population resource variables these are the social variables. This one this one is mobility storage, connections to other areas in a variety of ways you can see there's a difference between population resource in that it's all in vulnerability in social and institutional practice in that it's all in vulnerability in creation of vulnerability. One means there is a difference. Everybody's got at least a one. So you're looking above this bar there's sufficient resources on the landscape that people can use. I'll play on this general role in creating vulnerabilities in any of our cases so vulnerability really this overall vulnerability to score rarely resulted from the data that we resources in some of the sequences like mine there's little bit of a role not much but the social variables play a role and especially connections meaning how much to connect to people who are in the areas outside of your own. This is not connections within your village group let's say, but it's connections to people outside of where you are so you can get away from the situation by going to someone else where you can get resources from them like the trade, the food that was brought from Northwest Europe to Iceland and Ljubljana and Ferris that's what I mean by connections and mobility of course is mobility So one of the first things we learned is that the social variables across all of our cases play a bigger role in creating vulnerability than the application resource variables the second thing we do with the data is create a spider perhaps or you can do them yourself just ask for spiders or something All of the big variables are on the outside and these lines these read the alias are scaled 1, 2, 3, 4 to the scores we gave to the people who are in the village So right away you just need to look at it and say, we can prepare cases Membrace has married one that married let's see Membrace too has very low rate and how come one has very high and we could array all of the cases on 13 and put them place them next to each other and when you visualize it that way I'm going to show you a little bit of graph for the village of Dawkins it's just a little harder to visualize the village of Dawkins and this way we can prepare the cases and not just which case has worked over the week and we're contributing here's all of the social and 4 to 8 are the social delayed variables whereas the resource variables are not having that which we'll get the other thing we have to do is in some cases there was more than one climate challenge we were looking at we were able to compare within the case between climate challenges this vulnerability go up or did it go down over time and in the range of arrows this was that this was that first-terms arrow that's the second one so there's a much higher probability of what we call memory score and a higher challenge and a more true lower probability of memory score higher challenge and more probability of failure I'll talk a little bit about why that happened it's more that it did happen for this kind of study a bigger principle for that it did happen than the detail explanation of why it happened. Here's another case where we were able to cross the case of cross time from the mid-13th to the early 15th century in Greenland. And the vulnerability load just keeps getting higher. And it keeps getting higher in Greenland, both for population resource variables. Here's diversity. This is social connectedness and human vulnerability. So they had a pretty bad situation. All resource diversity, low mobility, and the ability to create vulnerability, and low connectivity to other areas is again contributing to that. So there's considerable information within and between the cases that we can learn from doing this kind of study. What I want to focus on today is the overarching pattern of all the cases together rather than within the case of the person. So this is a little bit of a hard graph to put onto the screen. I'm going to talk it through with you. And one of the things that is to me, it's sort of ironic that you spent years around a table with 19 people talking, talking, coding, coding, coding. This is the outcome. This is the analysis. It's if it could weigh, if it could have weighed by how much time and into it, it would be so happy it would be able to do this. So that's why I want to conclude the release. This is the outcome that I want to talk with you. I think it's easiest to focus just on one side. So here's the vulnerability loads. The lowest vulnerability load is 10. The highest is 25. And they're repeated, so 10, 25, and 25 is the vulnerability load across the bottom. Here are the cases. And they're rating such a way that they're organized by vulnerability load as the order they have here is lower than the vulnerability load. Ignore this side. Because even if they give it a weight, walk over it, that activity. So just don't let your head go that way. Just push it to the side. The distribution of those dots and their color indicate the relationship between vulnerability load prior to the climate challenge and the outcomes from the climate challenge. Green indicates this side we're looking at social change. What extent was there any significant social change happened following the climate challenge? Green means nothing. But some of them we don't see it archaeologically or historically. So those green dots up there, here's the lower end of the vulnerability load. All the green dots are like the lower end of the vulnerability load. We would expect that if vulnerability was introduced in times, the red dots mean that there was substantial change. And substantial change includes major institutional changes, sometimes the placement of central traditions, and big demographic decline. All of those have been in place for you to get a red dot. The yellow or orange, any kind of you see that color differently. Now, I see this yellow. Yellow dots are some institutional change, but no demographic decline. So all the red dots, of course, are at this, as we would expect, if we were to write about vulnerability load, are at the upper end of all the vulnerability load. I want to just talk through those red dots. The first one is number one. I've already talked a bit about number one. This is when there was an extremely long dry period in the estimated population of about 5,000s. People tend to, not everyone, think that we're in our technology. People tend to agree, though, that the population was around 5,000 in the race region. And I argued and documented through the studies of all the villages that about three quarters of people left the region. So about 1,200 people remained in the region. That's an estimate. All of the villages across the whole region, those pictures I showed you, and those couple of villages, they were all divided. So they were 25% of people staying, but they scattered over the region and living in a very different kind of situation. People, of course, there was a long drought, and people had depleted the riverine habitats. They decreased the abundance of already damaged. They damaged up the soils, their farming, and they had reduced external relationships so that when you look at memories at this time, just before when there's more than 1100 to 110 acres, it looks like there's a strong, strong, non-porous border around it. Stuff doesn't come in, and stuff doesn't go out. So they've limited the decrease in mobility. They've limited their social connection to the stone of places. So they freed insoluble vulnerability and lost population, social institutions. The things that we did identify as those beautiful Black Point Pods I showed you, people would make more of them after that time. Lots of traditions out of every race. Religious traditions were born. The second rundown is Greenland 3. Greenland 3 is the end of the settlement of the Norse settlement of Greenland, which occurred around 1450, when the Norse abandoned the island following a very stormy, cold, icy period. The challenges people in Greenland were considerable. I already mentioned that they radically reduced their food security by 30-second intervals. They became isolated from Northern Europe, and the Norse simply didn't have the ability to remain living in Greenland. The last settlers, some of the last settlers may have died. Many moved off the island. I'm not that tick-positioned in the literature of the Northern Atlantic. People will kill each other, or either people died or moved. But a couple would help. There's some evidence of both. But they no longer lived in Greenland. And when there was no Norse, I couldn't remember the count. I don't know the red dot, which is the end of the local irrigation system in September or so now, which I already mentioned is the largest pre-Spanic area in the background. By the middle 1400s, when there were up to 50,000 people living in the region, thousands of people, basically all of them, emigrated from this great irrigation system and their large clusters, leaving little to no for a few days that it was still alive. We tried, and tried. It's very hard to see hands in the face after 1450s before you see just a bad case in the Spanish living area. Some people probably died. We have to remember that there was been a nutrition in some of the villages, but not all of them. And most people moved away. And left a room in the unpopular center. In all these cases, I've described them to you because I want you to understand it's not just about climate. Because the climate challenges were never the second. At the same magnitude, we're bigger. So it's a combination of social, environmental, economic decision making by people that contributes to this. And it makes that question, if you look in the southwest, people ask you, oh, didn't people live in there so much because of the drought? Because it's so drought? Well, no, not entirely, but it's a factor. OK, that's the left side. Right side, again, this distribution is the relationship between vulnerability load and climate challenge. That's the impact on climate challenges. The green dots are no food shortage or no visible food shortage that they can determine. And the red dots are substantial in food shortage, meaning that everyone, as well as with indoctrination, everyone was suffering from some kind of malnutrition or something. The yellow dots became so impure for suffering, but not everybody. And this is something that's very common in the North Atlantic Islands. It was a kind of way for the whole elite, really, to make things work by letting other people starve. So just as in the case on the left, where vulnerability loads are the lowest, you don't have any substantial food shortage. Really, the highest, you have substantial food shortage. But this particular analysis was different, because look at those two green dots. Those are so annoying. This one and this one. And when I looked into them, I actually written a central paper about those two green dots. When I looked into it, I found that they had a very good lesson beyond the relationship between vulnerability and impacts. They had a good lesson for disaster management. And I should have told you that the coding for food shortage was based on skeleton analysis of humans and animals, ethno-botanical analysis, and in the case of the North Atlantic Islands, historical records. So what are those two green dots? I say they offer us a way to also look more richly at disaster management. These two dots help us understand the costs of recovery. So if we have successful recovery, we're going to find a challenge of what costs people pay. In members one, which is the top of those two green dots, I already mentioned members one up here. Most of the regional population in the left, all of the settlements have been decapitated. But because the population is so low, there's no longer to the food commissioning challenge. So people who are able to manage that to 12 hundred people would be able to manage and not see any evidence of food commissioning challenges. But the social landscape is, for them, really changed. There aren't those village centers anymore. People are just dispersed all over. They're probably on a small community base and see a lot of the ground in and out of the area. So the cost they pay for avoiding the provisioning challenge was some real challenges socially in the social landscape. Really big adjustments in the social landscape. The second green dot is green-liped tooth. This is the time in which people shifted from focusing on hand-raising animals and their grades. They've still looked at a value diet not 100 million. It shifted to 80% of the diet they would see now. And see animals at this time were very abundant. Following green-liped tooth, which was a particularly cold period, things were the best resource base for the sea animals. And they were very abundant. People were out in the water bringing that research in, able to provision their communities. But they created a huge vulnerability by increasing the diversity of their diet. And here's green-liped tooth. So 100 years after they made this adjustment, they were hit by an extremely icy, stormy period. And the ice prevented people from being likely to get to see an ice. So they had created the thing that solved the provisioning problem. They had created themselves an even greater vulnerability that played out later. So the two red dots at this end were the highest full and fully lowest to have the highest food security impacts. This is green-liped tooth. This is the end of the application I've talked about that. This is Holocon 2. Sorry, Holocon 1 and Holocon 2. Holocon 1 was an extreme, low drought beginning in the early 1300s. Do we find evidence for food shortage? I already mentioned to one segment of the population in Central Arizona. By the second dry period, people had gathered that huge irrigation systems were no longer functioning. The foundation of technological foundation for their water management productivity that's coming into the house of people who's not there. So we interpret this as substantial food shortage because the technology produced in the water in practice. The mass irrigation system was no longer used at normal or native lands cultivated. So people had less of the area because of a lot of food in part. So in selling, major social transformations over climate challenges, oops, climate challenges, in cases with great vulnerability load. The food shortage was experienced in the cases with the greatest vulnerability load prior to the climate crisis. Supporting the ideas before the climate disaster management period. So now we can go back to the disaster management period and say, here is across all these very different cases of having a system of what you're suggesting. A very interesting aspect of the patterning that we gave back to at the end was, while we were trying to consider all seven cases at one time, if we separate them out by region, Greenland, Iceland, and Faroe Islands have the same kinds of climate challenges. Same magnitude, same lake, same source of climate challenges. And only in Greenland, where the vulnerabilities were high, the people have severe impacts on those challenges. In Iceland and Faroe, they do not have severe challenges for them. Yeah, severe impacts on the climate challenges. Same thing for the Southwest. Four cases, all with the same kinds of magnitude and scales of drought. The two cases with the highest vulnerability load which is number one and number two, which is number four. In those two cases, you have the greatest vulnerability load and you have the highest, the highest. Which reinforces the overall pattern of the planning, but we're able to break it down. We're saying that we're at the impacts for the challenges are exactly the same. The impacts are quite different. So the role of human creativity is just going to be hard. And this is candy to the disaster management community. They like this kind of information because it supports what they're trying to accomplish. Even though they know that from their experience, this is not true. It's very hard to get NGOs and governments to support changes to bold abilities that will create kind of those impacts by climate challenges. So our analysis suggests several points that some of which are directly addressing the disaster management community and some of which are partly adjusting to the moon and making this kind of comparison. So our views for coping with climate challenges must include a focus on reducing climate risks. The climate events that we documented were truly anticipated. Yet those cases that have global priorities, we've had really low levels of impacts. So what do we now call natural disasters are not at all natural? In fact, they're not experienced in those cases of global buildings in cases we look at prehistoric, historic. So our global needs are kind of low, impacts are also low. Social factors are substantial contributors to vulnerability. Researchers and managers recognize this, but management of food security is sometimes, and I would actually say often, in literature it says sometimes. I crossed it out quite often. Often simply address the availability of food. And we err in our management of food security by assuming that in context we don't have to worry about vulnerability to good charges down the line. Attention to the social conditions rather than just the resources, remember those eight variables, to create vulnerability to good shortages is an essential part of the reason for this to be quite a challenge. Back to the beginning of my title. The concept of natural disasters is really unfortunate. It's not just wrong. It's really unfortunate because it removes the focus from the social conditions that set the stage for those disasters. It doesn't disservice to our whole policy that it was the disaster management. Our diverse cases, the seven of you have done, suggest that human-created vulnerabilities can influence the outside climate challenges in all kinds of environments, cultures, historical countries. Disaster relief should address vulnerabilities. This is easy for me to say. Using vulnerabilities is really difficult. Even though there are numerous, numerous studies, people like to say, oh, there's a cost to mention it. Numerous studies that the cost of eliminated vulnerabilities is far less than the cost of recovery for any natural disaster. And before I get that one, I want to tell you, that was in Houston, Hurricane Harvey. A few days after Hurricane Harvey, there was an interview with one of the city officials from Houston, and they were in a search for one of them. How are these going? How are these cooperating? What kind of data? And one of the questions, I was driving my car. I had to pull up when this happened. Because one of the questions was, could you have done anything to decrease or eliminate any of the impacts of Hurricane Harvey in the die-shot problem? Well, we couldn't look at the analysis in Houston. And then the water, most of it, would burn into the clouds. We couldn't have the flooding. But that would have cost a million dollars. That would never happen. That's what I had to pull over. I guess I already knew, they'd estimated that the cost was over $100 billion or so. But unless people are actually experiencing over displacement, injury, the death of colleagues and friends and family, it's hard to get people to move, especially governments, to move to a place where they're going to address the cost of all their employees. And I'll come back to a place where I started talking about why we used my eye and how it was in my team, this kind of archeology. I think that archeology and history have a lot to offer. This topic, but also lots of topics that we've written about other topics we haven't done with social nursing and trade-offs of people making decision-making. For our project, the long sequences offer to find a good perspective to disaster measures and also to people who work on human securities that haven't been deployed. It's been lately in the last, I'd say, five, six years we've been more in that venture to get an announcement, physical jargon person, really stepping in and saying, same types of things that we are. Identifying and sending some climate challenges, we can do that regardless of what the impacts were. So we're not setting, in our video, we're not setting a sort of storm Sandy, we're setting a climate challenge. And then we're able to go back and kind of look at, which is important now. So it's a unique fact that our work is not brought to the table, by people who have been in that very situation. And this just shows you our team. It really was a team effort, and I wanted to go into all of them. So thank you very much for inviting me. I do teams and then after the questions we'll then have more one-on-one with our treats and our, indeed, drink and we'll be food and drink for you. Yes. That's really amazing material. And I'm just curious, what kind of data has musical folk for you to plot the climate change versus the future of it? Yeah. What kind of, like, argument on the data of three rings? We had to sort of, the climate challenge just had to be to separate from the food shortage assessment. So we couldn't use, we couldn't say, oh, well, you know, sort of super dry for 10 years, there must have been a future. That would have been mixed with the variables of it. Would have, well, our results would have been viable. But so we, the climate scientists, they were a group of men across the Atlantic and South West got together to come up with ways to characterize climate challenges without any information about food shortage, social change, vulnerability conditions. They were not in that conversation until we already got the tourniquet challenges. Once they gave us the information that we were just speaking to us about. But, and then we used to look at food shortage. We had skeletal analysis human, skeletal analysis of different foods. We had animal, we had analysis of animal skeletons who were impacts to their health and work body. We used plant units. We used, especially seed analysis to look at the extent to which people were scooping it out of different kinds of things. And, see, and, well, in the North Atlantic we also have some really excellent historical records. People wrote a lot, which they had in South West too. People wrote a lot. Now some of that you can read and some of that you can't, right, because historic records aren't just true. But, the church especially, when the church was present in the recent regions, they kept very good records. They kept birth and death records. They kept marriage records. They kept productivity records. It was a somewhat higher system, so landowners kept records of the tenants' productions. In fact, when these two things happened, you can see it in the historic records from the North Atlantic, because the tenants couldn't produce enough food to give to the people who's land it was and eat. So they just stopped doing that. Which is one of the reasons you get far less green production than an animal husband and wife. Because the people who were doing it stopped doing it, because they couldn't get enough for themselves, so they wouldn't have a second-priced farmer to be able to stay doing it. They just went out and started trying to see that. And living a completely different life. So you find that tenant farmers that go around these high-stories, especially in Iceland, seven days a week, and also mainly Iceland. They just lost the tenant farmers that were living around them. Or some of the owners did absorb some of the tenant farmers into their family. But not with an interest in keeping them born alive, things got really bad. There's some gruesome stories from the North Atlantic about how people managed their pensions behind them. Any other questions? So, great talk. I'm just wondering about the whole issue of relevancy or ecology to the contemporary society. You've got some great data. So how successful have you been in terms of dealing or working with, like, the kind of disaster people like people? I mean, do they actually listen to you? No, I don't talk to people. Because they won't listen to people. Well, I talked to a lot of people who talk to people. So, archaeologists have been clever in placing people in a federal government in different places. And so, I did a large number of years ago. Over there? Yeah. She's a very successful engineer and this is her. And also with a social anthropologist, she was brought into a big project. I had to do a risk management and on the graduation of working centers in disaster situations to try to help them understand why nobody doesn't hear the message you're saying. I don't do credit so, but to answer your question, I don't talk to a disaster man. I'm sorry, it's a female because I don't have a female. You wouldn't listen to me. But what I do is I publish in places and I know that they are actually some staff. There's an online journal called Ecology Society. And it's read by policy people, economists, ecologists. And so, about 10 years ago, I stopped publishing for a while in the Department of Technology and published in Ecology Society. That's not an easy thing to do. So it took a while. The first hour before I tried to put it in there, it was repeated over a period of three years because they have any color that's repeated in the hemorrhagic villages for a good year. So I said, if you want this, you're going to have to work with me here. You know, three years is a long time. It's okay for me. I attend, you know, archival classes. But the grad students couldn't sustain that. So I did the first article and got the term on how we can do this. Ecology Society wanted this too. They wanted to be using, you know, a whole range of kinds of publication. I was part of the resilience alliance, which is where Ecology Society of Journalism was from. And that's all... there was no ethnologist resilience alliance. They were being here for us. So they have to go a little ways toward us. And they were willing to do that. It doesn't have to come anywhere toward us. But they're supposed to have to be leading on this. So it was really worth it to be in there and put these seven P&As, taking things into science and be that. So I don't have a skill set to go to DC and match my head against. I was just wondering if you're doing a collaborative work with any of them. No, I do talk with and share literature with the test and management people. I have a very advanced partner here. Well, that would be the next step, right? Yeah. Yeah. We, to do this, this project was funded by the National Science Foundation. And we came to them talking about it from the battle and I came to them and said, you know, we have this idea. It could yield nothing. But we want you to take a chance on this. Just give us $50,000 to get started. And if it doesn't work, we're sorry. Um... We won't be letting that go. But it works. Wow, it's going to be so interesting. And this is one of what we can now publish, published, forget it, just a minute. Take a turn. Something like 17 journal articles and many book chapters, two books. In different kinds of settings what people are going to see is normal, just for us, for archaeology. And so I'd actually just let away a bit from the mainstream work that we did come back to. But I find the conversations people are putting on here, but people outside of archaeology when you couldn't actually explain to them and give examples like this, they'll listen. I find for the last 12, 15 years we've gone into the American Association for National Science. And we hope the session there, and it's full, the people are interested to know or just know they can, they're speaking to something they care about. They don't really want to know. It's kind of important to know the analysis of whatever's going on. But they don't care about it. But if I'm talking to them about something that they want to know about, then they know that they yourself is a slow process and I'm not the one that's going to pick up any of the things. That's interesting for people. I think there is the intergovernmental kind of climate change as far as the United Nations of a quite interesting and such kind of use. Yes, I've been nominated to it twice. But I think it's like four people from all of the U.S. and I didn't make it. I don't make it in there because I've gotten the people in the Netherlands to read this stuff and they're interested in acting on it. It's usually passed away but she's not that worried about it. She was totally convinced by this and gave the solution to the results points on how they need to pay attention to this kind of thing. Not necessarily just what we're doing but what archaeologists have to say about things that they're interested in. Like the comments. How many of y'all have just read about the comments? That's what all of our authors have been writing books about. She's been reading the young archaeologists and reading them. Yeah. All of her eight periodings you made it a pretty good case that the kind of food of yield almost environmental variables even though the environment may come the drought or the freezing comes in the environment but it's not the food sources or the farming in the drought that's the problem with you. The social side and there's those guys on that side like the higher linear lines and you had two that were much higher. That's from a million points of data I get it. So just off the record do you really feel like those two are the ones that you need to really think about it? So how would you redraw those to be really realistic? I can't remember exactly but there was one was a little bit higher than the other. Is that really right or would you say no? It's really far apart. How comfortable are you having studied them so long at those different levels? Would you say no? Some are actually more important and I think it's fatter or I think it's more important. The answer to that depends on which context you're looking at. Is the pattern to the seven cases we looked at and those cases are really different. The thing I had to comment is the population levels are pretty low. These are the ones that you're looking at. This is not the Central Mexican already. This is not that. It would be fantastic than just study those. Take a puncher and do the same thing. You're looking at the sort of effectiveness so that you have to be able to do that. But I do think that how many scales are you looking at? Movement and connection are incredibly important because you can be in a situation where you can provision your population that something comes along that challenges your ability to provision. On the other side of that you don't have connections. You don't have movement. You don't even have to be taking advantage of the directions to get food. They are there so that you then can do that. You can do that. I think connections I found fascinating that storage didn't matter for storage. Is that funny? Is that funny? Is that funny? Is that funny? You know that you're not in storage for so long. But we were looking at food security because we were looking at food security but storage went through some other precious jams. Where's storage going? The question is for all those variables what I'm trying to take is which is going to play a big role. There's a lot of spin-off things that can be done in this kind of way. There's been crazy things to do that had high probability loads and that's where I went back and helped those 7-7 customers to do those 2-3 counts because they didn't fit. That's really mobility and connectivity. First of all the mobility was sort of conflicting about it. It's like wow, some of your settled places with same memories are not moving around but their resolution to the climate challenge was to move and the reason that Kenny was able to survive with only 1200 people left is because people moved. So there was a kind of mobility that fed into the whatever happened down the loop but it fed into the stability of the stability of the culture and the stability of people staying alive. People staying alive but the culture stuff was interesting about those cases where the solution to provisioning was a lot of those things go back and I don't really need my things now. Those people when they moved away you can't see anything in that race after they moved out of that race in the region. They've just become completely invisible. So to me that's not a great outcome. I think for people when you think about people's lives that's not a great outcome. Quite a bit of a great outcome for people suffering under the traditions of the race. That's really interesting that what we see in Europe for example in southern Europe in sort of the southern France, northern Spain area between sort of the oh you know 15,000 year time period as the policy approaches in that major climate change and the shift in animals and the shift in biomes and that sort of thing is you really see that before that major climate change starts to get people are the kinds of things that are moving around people are moving. There's connectivity, there's mobility it's just an amazing amount but with the end toward the end of the policy people turn inward and you see the reduction mobility, the reduction connectivity and then you don't see very much of anything. They created their own mobility no that they're just doing it because they're saying no questions just because they were making particular adjustments to the climate changes that were happening and those adjustments and that comes back to the modern application for face with challenges and we're making decisions if we're not thinking about the trade-offs that we're making and whether we're making what we're making ourselves more more vulnerable to it could we avoid that there was a guy who was who wrote a book about global communication and his thesis was in order to enhance global communication just critical to the future of the world and people in order to do that we need to homogenize culture again I drove off the road listening to them listening to them every order homogenize culture we know what happens when we homogenize culture but it's the extra I'm all about global communication but that was that way to do that he was not thinking what role will he be creating how could I accomplish this goal of better global communication that we're doing now but we don't think about that I guess the argument that people are making that it's not so much a matter of a lack of food resources that we've got in starvation or all of these things it's a distribution of India's right let's distribute some food yes it would make more after that time lots of traditions out of every race religious traditions we're going the second rundown is Greenland 3 Greenland 3 is the end North 7 of Greenland which occurred around 1450 when the North abandoned the island following a very stormy whole icy period the challenges people in Greenland were considerable I already mentioned that they radically reduced their food security by focusing on females they became isolated from Northern Europe and the North simply didn't have the ability to remain living in Greenland the last settlers some of the last settlers may have died many moved off the island I'm not going to take a position in the literature of the North Atlantic who will kill each other or either they will die or moved but a couple would help there's some that it's about they don't want to live in Greenland and when there was no North and the North Atlantic the final red dye which is the end of the O'Connor irrigation system which I already mentioned is the largest pre-Spanic in the North America like the middle 1400s when there were up to 50,000 people living in the region thousands of people and the irrigation system has a large clusters leaving little to no for a few days we've tried and tried it's very hard to see and it's in dates after 1450 before you see of how she's Spanish living area some people probably died in some of the villages and most of them moved away and left a really unpopular center in all these cases I've described them to you because I want you to understand it's not just about climate because there were climate challenges where none of this happened at the same time as you were bigger so it's a combination of social, environmental, economic decision making by people that contributes to it makes that question I was going to ask you oh did people in there so much because of the drought because it's so dry well you no not entirely but it's a factor okay that's the left side right side again this distribution is the relationship between climate climate challenges and climate challenges the green dots are no food shortage or no visible food shortage in the red dots are substantial in shortage meaning that everyone as well as in document everyone was suffering from some kind of malnutrition the yellow dots became some people who were suffering from their money and this is a this is something very common in the North Atlantic Islands it was a kind of way for the whole for the elite to relate to make things work by letting other people start so just as in the case on the left where vulnerability those are the lowest you don't have any substantial food shortage what this particular analysis was different is look at those two green dots those were so annoying this one and this one and when I looked into my actually written central paper about those two green dots when I looked into it I found that they had a very good lesson beyond the relationship between vulnerability and impacts they had a good lesson for disaster management I should have told you that the coding for food shortage was based on skeleton analysis of humans and animals and in the case of the North Atlantic Islands historical records what are those two green dots I say they offer us a way to also look more richly at disaster management these two dots help us understand the costs of recovery so if we have successful recovery from a climate management what costs do we pay in Miiverse 1 which is the top of those two green dots I already mentioned Miiverse 1 up here most of the regional population have left all of the settlements have been decapitated but because the population is so low there is no longer to the food proficiency challenge so people were able to manage that they were able to manage any evidence of food proficiency challenges but the social landscape is for them really changed there aren't those village centers anymore people are just dispersed all over but they're probably really small communities and you see a lot of them around in the community in and out of the area so the costs they paid for avoiding provisioning channels was some real challenges socially in their social landscape really good suggestions in their social landscape the second green dot is green lived tooth it's the time in which people shifted from focusing on land raising animals and to end their rains they're still looking at that in a diet not it shifted to 80% of the diet in the sea mountains the sea levels at this time were very abundant following green lived tooth which was particularly cold period things were the best resource base in the sea mountains and they were very abundant people were out in the water bringing that research in able to provision their communities but they created the ability by increasing the diversity of their diet and here's three of them so 100 years after they made this adjustment they were hit by an extremely icy stormy period and the ice prevented from being like the guests in the house so they had created the whole provisioning problem and created themselves a greater role in the new and played out later talking about green lived tooth so the two red dots at this end where the highest pool of holylows have the highest security impacts this is green lived tooth this is the end of our presentation I've talked about that this is holocon 2 sorry holocon 1 and holocon 2 what was the extreme lower drought beginning in the early 1300's do we find evidence for food shortage I already mentioned to one segment of the population of Central Arizona by the second dry period excuse me people abandoned that huge irrigation system they were no longer functioning with the foundation of the technological foundation for their modern management so we interpret this as substantial food shortage because of the technology the water in practice the mass irrigation system was no longer used in normal land so people added because in part so in selling major social transformations over climate challenges in cases with great exposure to very low food shortage was experienced in the cases with the greatest quality of life supporting the ideas of the poor environment disaster management we can go back to that here is across all the very different cases of having a system with what you're suggesting one very interesting aspect of the patterning that we came back to at the end was while we were trying to consider all seven cases at one time if we separate them out by region Greenwood, Iceland and Feral Islands have the same kinds of climate challenges same magnitude same lake same source of climate challenges and only in Greenwood where the vulnerabilities were high do people have severe impacts on those challenges in Iceland and Feral they did not have severe challenges for them severe impacts on climate challenges same thing for the southwest four cases all with the same kinds of magnitudes and scales of drought in two cases with the highest quality of life hope on which is number one no risk which is number four in those two cases you have to create more quality of life impacts which reinforces the overall pattern of the finding but we're able to break it down we're saying that where the impacts for them challenges are exactly the same the impacts are great so the role of human creativity just can't be hard and this is candy to the disaster management community they like this kind of information which supports what they're trying to accomplish even though they know from their experience this is in fact true it's very hard to get NGOs and governments to support changes to bold abilities that will create high levels of impact for the challenges so our analysis suggests several points that some of which are directly from the management community and some of which are adjusted to the moon strategies for coping between challenges must include a focus on reducing climate risks the climate events that we documented were truly inanticipated yet those cases that have global probabilities we've been blew by these good facts so what will we handle with all of natural disasters in fact they're not experienced in those cases in cases that we look at pretty historically so our global abilities are low social factors are substantial contributors to vulnerability researchers and managers recognize this but management with securities sometimes, and I would actually say often literature says sometimes across the boundary often simply address the availability of food for context and we err in our management with security by assuming that in context when it's out of food we don't have to worry about vulnerability to good charges that are wide attention to the social conditions rather than just the resources remember those eight variables that create vulnerability to good strategies is an essential part of reasoning this to try to challenge back to the beginning of my title the concept of natural disasters is really unfortunate it's not just wrong it's really unfortunate because it removes the focus from the social conditions that set the stage for those disasters it doesn't disservice to our whole policy of practicing disaster management in our diverse cases the seven of them suggest that human-created vulnerabilities can influence the outcome by the charges in all kinds of environments cultures disaster relief should address vulnerabilities this is amazing reducing vulnerabilities is really difficult even though there are numerous numerous studies people like to say oh there's a cost to mention numerous studies that the cost of eliminated vulnerabilities is far less than the cost of recovery for any natural disaster and before I hit that one I'm going to tell you back to like Houston Hurricane Harvey few days after Hurricane Harvey there was an interview with one of the city officials from Houston and they weren't in a search line to find out how things are going and how they're cooperating and one of the questions I was driving my car one of the questions was could you have done anything to decrease or eliminate any of the impacts from Hurricane Harvey and the disaster relief analysis and then the water most of it would burn to the ground but that wouldn't cost a million dollars that would never happen that's what I had to go over I guess I already knew they'd estimated that the cost was over a hundred billion dollars from that disaster but unless people are actually experiencing wear, displacement injury the death of colleagues and friends and family it's hard to get people to move especially governments to move to a place where they're going to address the cost of all their movies and I'll come back to a place where I started talking about why we use my eye and Elerson 19 this kind of archaeology I think that archaeology and history have a lot to offer this topic but also lots of topics that we've written about other topics that I haven't done social diversity and trade-offs of people making decision making but for our project the long sequences offer valuable perspective to disaster reactors and also to people who work on human securities that haven't been deployed it's been lately in the last, I'd say five, six years or even more of an adventure they're now physical geographers they're really stepping in the same types of things that we are identifying incidents of climate challenges we can do that regardless of what the impact is so we're not setting in our video we're not setting super-striped sandy we're setting a climate challenge and then we're able to go back and have more conditions to work so we have a unique perspective to offer it's not brought to the table by people who have been in a different situation and this just shows you our team it really was a team effort and I'm worried that we'll talk so thank you very much for trying I do things and then after the questions we'll then have more one-on-one with our treats and our food and drink for you that's really amazing material and I'm just curious what kind of data has this helpful for you to plot the climate change versus the food shortage what kind of data three rings the climate challenges have a different from the food shortage assessment so we couldn't use we couldn't say oh well it's super dry and that's what we ended up on it would have been we couldn't our results would have been viable but so we climate scientists didn't group them across the Atlantic and South West got together and come with ways to characterize climate challenges without any information about food shortage, social change over ability conditions they were not in that conversation until we already got the tourney challenges. Once they gave us the information, we would just be aggressive. But, and then we used to look at food challenge. We had skeletal analysis human, skeletal analysis of different species. We had animal, we had analysis of animal skeletons for impacts to their health and more quality. And more quality. We used pranocomates. We used especially seed and word analysis to look at the extent to which people were soothing it out of different kinds of things. And, see, and more and more than that, we also have some of the excellent histamines. People wrote a lot, which they had in some of us too. People wrote a lot. Now some of that you can believe, and some of that you can't. Historic records aren't just true. But the church especially, when the church was present in the recent regions, they kept American records. They kept birth and death records. They kept marriage records. They kept productivity records. It was somewhat hierarchical system, so landowners kept records of benefits, productions. In fact, all of these things happened. You can see it in the historic records from the United Atlantic. Because the attendance couldn't produce enough food to give to the people whose land it was and eat, so it just stopped doing it. It stopped, which is one of the reasons you get far less greed production than an animal has been dreaming. Because the people who were doing it stopped doing it, because they couldn't get enough for themselves. So they wouldn't have a sacrifice for their family to stay doing it. They just went out and started living in included with the grant life. So you find that 10 farmers that go around these high-salary, especially in Iceland, some as big, but also mainly Iceland. They just lost the 10 farmers that were living around them. Or some of the owners did absorb some of the 10 farmers into their family. But not with an interest in keeping them born alive, things got to be done. There's some gruesome stories from the North Atlantic about how people managed their pensions, people left behind, the Russians left. So I'm just wondering about the whole issue of relevancy or ideology to the contemporary society. You've got some great data. So how successful have you been in terms of dealing with the federal disaster people and the FEMA? I mean, did they actually listen to you? No, I don't talk to FEMA. Because they won't listen to people. I talk to a lot of people and I talk to a lot of people. So archeologists in Clepper have made placing people in federal government in different places. So I do know Marcia Clopper. I've known her there. Yeah. She's very successful. And they've been listening to her about whatever I was doing. And also with social iconography, she was brought into a big project. Had to do with risk management and the graduation of companies in our disaster situations. She tried to help them understand why nobody doesn't hear the messages in the same way. I don't do that, but to answer your question, I don't talk to a disaster man. I'm sorry, it's a FEMA because I don't have anyone who would listen to me. But what I do is I publish in places that I know that they are producing staff. There's an online journal called Ecology Society. And it's read by policy people, economists, ecologists. And so about 10 years ago, I started publishing a book on American technology and published in Ecology Society. That's not an easy thing to do. So it took a while. On the first hour, I felt like trying to put it in there. It was repeated over a period of three years because they have any colors that's repeated in the harem or dialogists who didn't get it. So I said, if you want this, you're going to have to work with me here. Three years is a long time. It doesn't pay for any item. Yeah, I told you most of it. But the grad students couldn't sustain that. So I did the first article and got the term on how we can do this. The public society wanted this too. They want to be using that. What were the two kinds of information we need? I was part of the resilience alliance, which is where Ecology Society turned those from. And that's all available. There are always no archaeologists who resilience alliance. But they weren't here for us. So they have to go a little ways toward us. And they were willing to do that. And the community doesn't have to come anywhere for us. But there's a little staff that we need on this site. So it's really worth it to me to be there and put these stuff in PNAS. They need that. Taking things into science, they need that. So I don't have the skill set to go to DC and batch my head against. I was just wondering if you're going to collaborate with any of them. No, I do talk with and share literature with the test and management people. Well, that would be the next step, right? Yeah. This project was funded by the National Science Foundation. And we came to that with Tom and Beverly from the battle. And I came to that and said, you know, we have this idea. It could yield nothing. But we want you to take a chance on this. Just give us $50,000 to get started. And if it doesn't work, we're sorry. People are thinking back, no, it doesn't work. Wow, it's going to be so interesting. And this is one of what we've now published, forget it, just a minute, in terms of something like 17 journal articles and many book chapters, two books. In different types of sentence what people are going to say, it's normal just for us, for archaeology. And so I actually slid away from the mainstream market and never answered, but I'd come back to some of it. But I find the conversations, people are going on here. But people outside of archaeology, when you put an answer explain to them and give examples like this, they'll listen. I've, for the last 12, 15 years, been going to the American Association for Bachelor of Science. And we hope the session there, and it's full, that people are interested to know what archaeologists know. They're speaking to something they care about. They don't really want to know. It's kind of normal to know what a physical analysis of whatever is going on. But they don't care about it. But if I'm talking to them about something that they want to know about them, then they don't. They, yourself, is a slow process. And I'm not the one who's going to pay attention. I think there is the intergovernmental kind of climate change as far as the United Nations. Are quite interesting and such kind of reasons. Yes, I've been nominated to it twice. But I think it's like four people from all of the US. And I didn't make the final comment. Nobody made it there. Because I like it. I've gotten the people in New Zealand's Hawaiians to read this stuff. And they're interested in acting on it. My owner, Austro, recently passed away, which we know about Maria, the comments. She was totally convinced by this, and gave a solution to them. So it's like, I probably need to pay attention to this kind of thing. Not necessarily just what we're doing, but what our girls just have to say. About things that they're interested in. Like the comments. How many of y'all have just written about the comments? That's what our owner, Austro, has been writing books about. She's been waiting on our girls for doing that. Austro Records. All for eight periods, you made it a pretty good case that the kind of food of yield, almost environmental variables, even though environment may come the drought or the freezing comes in the environment, but it's not the food sources or the farming in the drought that's the problem with you. You made a case that it's the social side, and there's those guys on that side, like the higher and lower lines. And you had two that were much higher. That's from a million points of data, I get it. So just off the record, you had, which do you really feel like those two are the ones that you need to really think about it? So how would you redraw those to be really realistic? You know, you have, and I can't remember exactly. One was a little bit higher together. Well, really? Yeah, and is that really right? Or would you say no, but you're really far apart? I mean, how comfortable are you feeling having studied them so long? Those different levels, there's different, I mean, would you say no, some are actually more important and then you're fatter, I think it's more important. I, the answer to that depends on which context you're looking at. So I, what I'm saying is to have to the seven cases we looked at, and those cases are really different. And the thing they had in common is the population levels are pretty low. These are the ones they've ever been set. This is not the age of a client. This is not, you know, the central Mexican area where you pretend, right? This is not that. It would be fantastic if they'd just study those. Take a puncher, or a band, and do the same thing. I wouldn't do it against these to sort of effect, I wouldn't do it against other, I think we're one of the places we're at. I'll show you, I'll show you. So then you have to be able to do that. But I do think that a scale, how many scales of your work do you have? Movement and connection are incredibly important. Because you can be in a situation where you can provision your population. Then something comes along and challenges your ability to provision. And on the other side of that, if you don't have connections, if you don't have movement, then you don't even have to be taking advantage of the directions to get food. They are there so that you then can be a client. You can be a client, right? And I think that it should, I found it fascinating that storage didn't matter for storage, it was even more important. Isn't that funny? So many people wrote about it. Oh no, storage. Yeah. Storage just didn't matter at all. It was because the private shop just was so long. Yeah. But the people who were looking at food were looking at food. So we were looking at food. Storage went through some other Japanese story and precious gems or something like that. But I don't know where storage went through. The question is, for all of those records, what kind of text did you play in April? There's a lot of spin-off things that we don't know this time. I told you those two readouts, they were just crazy things, two readouts that had high only million lives. And that's why I went back and did a little study just of those two readouts, because it didn't fit. Really, the mobility and the connectivity personal with the mobility was sort of conflicting about it. It's like, wow, soldiers settled, places of same embrace or a total constant. They were settled, they were there, they weren't moving around. But their resolution to the climate challenge was to move. So, and the reason that Penny was able to survive with only 1,200 people left in that embrace is because people moved. So there was a kind of mobility that fed into the, whatever happened there, people moved, but it fed into the stability of the same life. It infuriated the stability of the culture and fed into the stability of people staying alive. People staying alive, but their culture stopped there. It's interesting that those cases where the solution to provisioning in part was one of the things you go back, and I don't want to be like this now, like it's about climate, but that was our case. Those people, when they moved away, they kind of did it as well. Yeah, right. You can't see anything in that race after they moved out of that race in the region. They just become completely invisible. So to me, that's not a great outcome. I think for people, when you think about people's lives, that's where I agree, we're suffering it, and we get under the traditions of our place. It's a fine word. That's really interesting that what we see here, speaking as the petal of the archaeologist, but what we see in Europe, for example, in southern Europe, in sort of the southern France, northern Spain area, between sort of the, oh, you know, 15,000 year time period, and that as the Holocene approaches in that major climate change, and it's shifting animals, and it's shifting biomes, and all that sort of things, you really see that before that major climate change starts to hit, people are widely limited. The kinds of things that are moving around, people are moving, there's connectivity, there's mobility, it's just an amazing amount, but with the end for the end of the place, you see people turn inward, and you see the reduction mobility, the reduction in connectivity, and then you don't see very much of anything. What do you think, yeah? They became more of a provider, okay? They created their own home, no idea. No, it isn't that they're just doing it because they say no question, then you get more vulnerable. It's because they were making particular adjustments to the climate change that were happening and those adjustments, and that comes back to the modern application for face with challenges and we're making decisions. If we're not thinking about the trade-offs that we're making, and whether we're making, what we're making ourselves more and more vulnerable to, and can we avoid that? There was a guy who was, who wrote a book about global communication, and his thesis was, in order to enhance global communication just critical to the future of the world, and people. In order to do that, we need to homogenize culture. Again, I drove off the road, and he listened to that much. Listen, Norm, I'm here to order. No. But, homogenize culture, we know what happens when we homogenize culture, but it's the extra. I'm alone about global communication, but that was that way to do that. Nobody was, he was thinking about what role will he's in my creating. How could I accomplish this goal of better global communication without creating that ability? We don't think about that all the time, I guess. Part of this is, again, the argument that people are making that it's not so much a matter of a lack of food resources that we've got and starvation, or all of these things. It's a distribution. Oh, you're right. Or India's. Right. That's what we're talking about. I don't know, let me know. Let's distribute some food. Yes. Let's go. Very good.