 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. I hope everybody is doing well. Happy three-day weekend for those who don't know the markets are closed on Monday observance of Presidents' Day weekend, so shout out to all the presidents that made us get that extra day off. God bless. If you are new to the channel, please like, share, subscribe, and all that good juicy social media stuff people say to help continue to help us along to grow our channel to spread the word of unbiased technical analysis. So let's talk about the tape. Hope everybody had a really good trading week. As we know, every single week is all about data, right? Data, data, data, data. This week was no different. You had CPI, you had the PPI, you had non-farms, you had all this different stuff, and basically it's telling you exactly the same thing. We are tone deaf, right? Remember we use the word tone deaf a lot. Buyers get numb, sellers get numb, even going back to the mortgage crisis of 2007 through 2009, eventually sellers got tired. Eventually we all got used to the idea that, hey, you know what, we came this close into having global economic Armageddon, and somehow we survived. Granted, somehow was federal government bailing out the banks, but again it's a whole different conversation for another time. But the point is the market eventually got tired of going down and sellers just got dried out and the market started rallying. And this is kind of where we are right now with this whole inflation, interest rates, and the current economic climate that we're living in. We've known for a while. The initial reaction when they first started raising rates was, oh my God, what's going to happen? The market started going down. That was part of the aggressive cycle in the 2022 sell-off, but eventually the investors and traders and everybody else in between, they got tired, right? They got tired. They got numb to it. We were in an economic climate that was just going to continue to try to tame inflation and continue to raise rates. So we started rallying. We started rallying. This is definitely a very, very incredibly aggressive bull market that we've been having since the reclaim of the 278 level off the 50-day moving average. And going into this week, I mean, again, there was nothing really dramatic that the Fed could have possibly said, right? We knew that we're still out in tame deflation. We know that every single Fed governor feels like there's 3,000 of them speaking a day. But the one thing that we continue to live with, the prospects of continuation of Fed hikes until this quote-unquote inflation becomes tamed. And everything was going smoothly, right? Nothing was going crazy. Last week was the first time that the Nasdaq saw a losing week in about four weeks. Okay, so it wasn't that crazy. So the question was, what was going to be this week, right? And we got our answer very, very quickly before the CPI number. Every dip, and you kind of see this, and even when you saw this on Friday, every dip continues to get bull, right? Even when you have the absolute technically red signal close, if you watched the video on Thursday, right? It was the last video that I recorded. We had our first close below the five and 10-day moving average. I'm sure Kyler will post a clip of it. So we talked about on Thursday's video that I thought there was a back test that was going to get to about the 299 level. And if you saw Friday's action, we got down to 298, 299 right at the open. So it was one of those situations that you didn't even have a chance to react, right? Technically, it played out well. The market back tested into the rising 20-day support, obviously creating a line in the sand for the future. The point is, it's one of those scenarios that even if you blip, right, even if you were exposed to having inventory overnight, your inventory probably didn't react, unless it was like a name like NVIDIA that we discussed, or names that had big, big runs like Microsoft and Meta. The point is, everything opened right at rising support, and they just started bouncing again. And that's the kind of the market we're in. But the most important part and the most important takeaway that I think the bulls really embraced was those commons by Bullard. If you guys remember, after the CPI came out on Tuesday and the estimates were 6.2, they measured out at 6.4, then we had that big, ugly, ugly close on Thursday. The PPI numbers came back. The bulls once again bought off that dip, actually took the market green. And then at one point, Bullard came out and said, well, wait a minute, maybe things are not as smooth as we think. Maybe it's not, inflation's not as paraphrasing, attainable as we thought. And now everything's on the table. We might, instead of going 25, we might go back to 50, right? And that's not out of the question of Menster or Fester, I forgot the dude's name, or even it's a man or a woman, I don't even know anymore. The point is they were keep continuing to talk that this cycle could continue into 2024, maybe even beyond. And that led to that big, ugly reversal on Thursday, continuation of that big, ugly gap down on Friday. But the common denominator is bulls are defending levels. And that's it. You can sit there and try to rationalize, which again, if you've been watching this video and broadcast for a long time, I've been beating down a debt of force. There's no reason to try to rationalize the market. It's irrational. And that's the whole beauty of it all. Anything could happen. Anything will happen. And just when you get comfortable, that's when you get, you know, that's when you get your pants below your ankle. And again, it's one of those situations that once you figure out that how irrational the market is, it's not going to make a difference anymore. You just start looking at phase value. And that's the market structure charts close at the end of the day. And the one thing, the major thing that I keep on reiterating in this type of environment is, you know, stop thinking, you know, stop thinking and react to price action. Okay. I know you saw so many people and we talked about this on Thursday's video, right? I said, the last thing you want to do, right, is short into the hole. Okay. And that means shorting into an aggressive gap down into rising support. And again, if you didn't listen to that, right, if you didn't have the experience necessary to understand what kind of market we're in again, look with the market did look at the 60 minute view, right? Look at the 60 minute view. So here is your, you know, here is your gap down, right? Here's your ugly Thursday reversal. We gap down. Literally, we gap down. Look at the time here. We gap down at eight o'clock, seven o'clock, nine o'clock in the morning. Once the bell rang, they just ran the market up. You know, you talk about the queues, you talk about the queues, you know, $4 off the lows, like nothing, they grind it right back up. So you have to really understand the nuances of where we are. The good part about it is at least it's setting up a line in the same in the future, right? So the bottom of this channel here is $297.25. Everybody see that? That's the low from February the 10th. If you look at Friday's low, it was $298. So this $297 level is going to be super duper important. Again, we want to make sure that everybody's prepared going into the new week, right? So $297, that correlates perfectly to the rising 20-day support. So if we lose $297 on a close, then yes, we will have more back tests to come. So if you're unaware of these levels, you're buying stock because you think your stock looks good. Again, I promise you, if everything gets pulled, your stock is not going to be the sole survivor, right? It's not about the sum of the parts, right? I think a lot of traders, they go into the industry and they go into the trading days saying, well, this stock is standing out. What about the 18,000 stocks that are not standing out, right? You always want to go with the whole, not the sum of the parts. Yeah, maybe you'll get lucky and make some money, but it's much easier to go with the wave than go against it. So going into this week, again, just as a point of reference for us to be prepared in case they start pulling the market, $297 is going to be a very, very important level on the NASDAQ, on the QQQs for the bulls to defend. Any clothes below will sell the tape for the bulls to really get going, right? If they really get going this week, I think two things need to occur. We need to reclaim Friday's channel, which is 302, and if you look at the supply, right? If you look at the 60-minute supply, it's sitting right here. You see these two candles here, right? At nine o'clock in the morning, the high was 30193, and this whole supply here is 302. So the bulls need to get above 302. That's the first thing they should do. For them to start accelerating any type of rally, right? Like continuation of rally, they need to close, they need to reclaim 304, 305. That's what they lost on the 5- and 10-day moving average. So they need to reclaim back the 5- and 10-day moving average, start moving back higher, and start attacking prices. If you look at individual names, there's definitely a lot of strength, right? I'll give you a perfect example. Tesla has been absolutely phenomenal, right? Absolutely phenomenal. We talked about if Tesla lost the 10-day moving average on Thursday's video, there was a potential to go lower. I shorted Tesla twice on Friday, right? Both trades, I was fighting tooth and nail just to make a couple of bucks on this thing. It was incredibly resilient, and they finally reclaimed levels, right? They reclaimed back the 10-day moving average that they lost only on Thursday to reclaim that and the 5-day moving average to go back. And now we're talking about, again, a stull throws away from going back to the highs, which is amazing, which is absolutely amazing. Again, we've been trading this thing on dips. We've been trading on these things into strength. We've been trading these things on reversals. But boy, oh boy, the resilience of this thing is absolutely unmasked right now. And despite the stock being up 100%, 10% for the year, it's absolutely amazing, the continuation of strength. And now we want to watch the top of the channel here. You can see here on the 60-minute view. If it could get just above this whole channel here, it's going to start going daylight. And I think that push into that 220 level is still 220, 225 level will definitely be on the table. One stock that definitely survived, definitely survived a horrific fall on Friday was in the video. Remember we were talking about in the video, the same case scenario as Tesla on Thursday's video, right? Same thing, it lost the 10-day moving average. I said there's a shot against that 310 level. That's exactly what it did, right? It got down to the 310 level again, which is the rising support here, right? This is rising support. So now we have a definitive line in the sand for the future, right? For the future of the video. This thing starts losing the 20-day moving average. Then you have a lot of room down. I believe they report, I think it's next week. I have to double-check. I think they report, but they start losing the bottom of the channel here. You can have a lot of problems. Google continues to be definitely one of the weaker names is trying to fight. It's having a fist fight here at the 50-day moving average. Again, another one to watch in case there is further weakness. Again, first close below the 50-day moving average, and I think this thing will go lower. We had definitely some good success on Google for the last couple of weeks, trying to short this bottom channel. Everybody keeps on recouping back up. Big names, big results this week from earnings from a lot of the high flyers from two years ago. They came crashing down to earth. A lot of pleasant surprise this week. We had RBLX coming out with really, really good numbers, right? Really nice numbers this week. We had Airbnb, I believe, put out their first profitable quarter this year. You talked about TTD. Another one had a lot of big moves. These are candidates going into next week. Now that there is some profit-taking, you want to start looking at these things for potential five-day bounces. You see this orange line, right, guys? Everybody see this orange line? This is a potential area that short-term support could be set in place. So I'm definitely watching TTD this week, Monday, Tuesday, if it comes into this five-day for potential bounce. Same thing for Airbnb. It's probably like one or two days away from getting down to this five-day moving average as well. So there's still a lot of really good sentiment, especially strong stocks that are coming back into support. That's definitely giving us a really lot of good value. There's also a lot of names that don't look great, right? Look at Square. I know Square comes out with earnings soon. It's holding the bottom of the range here. You got to definitely keep an eye on a name like that. Look at Lucid, for example, right? I just want to give you guys some names that I'm kind of watching all week. So look at Lucid. Lucid had that big, that one big day of speculation and potential takeover. It's kind of flagging now, and it's kind of trying to build here over the five-day. You see the supply here, right? You see the supply here above this 11-11 area here. I want to keep an eye on this thing. They started coming out with 12, $12.5 calls. If this thing could get above this 11, 11.5 area, I think this thing could start waking up. Also a name like, let me see, also a name like Snow, for example. Again, I'm trying to give you some ideas on both sides of the market. Even a name like Snow. Look at the bottom of the channel here. It's holding onto the bottom of the channel here with Deal Life as well. If you start seeing a continuation of weakness in the market, we definitely want to pay attention to the bottom of the range here in case this thing falls. But what's cool about this tape is, again, it really is showing you how a good natural bull market tendencies are. They're still negating bad news, even when they give you a technical red signal, right? Like they did on the queues from Thursday going to Friday, unless you were aggressively short overnight. And again, I know a lot of people were, but the point is it's almost like a band-aid. It's not like a slow drip, right? Drip, drip, drip, drip. Right, if you watched that Thursday's video, we said, I think there's a shot at 290, 299. It got down to the 298. It happens overnight. So you're almost unaware and you don't even feel the pain. And you start seeing your stocks that have been just strong, strong, strong, getting down to these macro levels. They just start to rally. So, so far, again, good bull constructive organic market. That's exactly what bull markets are. They continue to brush off bad news. They continue to brush off headlines. And they keep on continually trapping, right? Trapping shorts at the bottom of the range. And unfortunately, every gap up that you're seeing, the last thing you want to continue doing, and I say this after every single video, stop shorting that opening, stop shorting that opening print at the open. You're going to get murdered. It's called shorting in the hole. That's where all these dip buyers are coming in. And that's where you're getting a sustained rally. So you've got to be careful in doing that. If you're going to short the open, right, at least wait for the opening range low. That's exactly what you want to do. You want to see the stock take out the previous days low, put in an opening range low on the 60 minute candle, let it rally, right? Who cares how high it rallies? If it's going to go lower, it doesn't have to take out the opening range low. At least that's the safest course of action. You know there wasn't just stops being triggered. You know there was real sellers in the crowd. And when they do confirm those opening range lows, that at least is going to give you a higher probability for the next move down. So guys, stay safe for everybody. Enjoying your long weekend. God bless. Stay healthy. Do something positive for somebody. Do something nice for yourself and just continue to live. Smile and everything else will be all right. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all on Tuesday. Take care.