 Welcome, welcome, welcome, everyone. Happy FOMC day. Today is March 20th. Got the S&P down seven, eight. NASDAQ down 24, Russell down two. Dow down 25. Gold is flat, silver a little bit red. Notes and bonds a little bit green. Tenure yield down almost a half percent. Oil down 2%, Natty Gas down 2%. Soybeans up one and a half. Wheat down one and a half. Corn down about a half. Euro and the pound flat. Bitcoin slightly red. And the VIX up about 1% just under 14. So as always for FOMC, I'll be trading my two FOMC trades. The first of which is the Zero DTE iron condor. I'm gonna put that on here in about four minutes. Using the $4 strike, 60 wide. Get that on right before the data is released. The idea being that we typically get a little bit of a volatility contraction after the data is released, but the movement is usually not too big. So we'll get a little contraction and then I'll take that off about five minutes before the press conference starts. And then five minutes after the press conference starts, I will buy some premium using a 30 delta long strangle and try to capture some of that crazy movement that we see after the press. It usually happens during the press conference or sometimes even after. We've got the, let's see, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90. 95 wide, my friends. 95 wide are the shorts at almost one o'clock p.m. central. That'll give us some room to roam. Expected move left is about 38.4 points. To start the day, it was about 37. So the expected move has increased a little bit. Saw some comments about the theta decay. Yeah, that's exactly why, why I do not, I do not trade iron condors in the morning because you're taking all of the risk without any of the benefit. I have not entered yet E. Allen, E. Allison, I should say. 235, excuse me, 250, or excuse me, 150 Eastern. So here in about, we'll have a minute, I'll jump in. Couple meetings ago, I had a pretty decent loss on this trade because I forgot to switch my stop over to the shorts instead of the full iron condor and I couldn't get out. So I ended up taking a bigger loss, but other than that one, I've had pretty good success with this trade. All right, so I'm gonna go ahead and enter and use a bot this time so it automatically switches off the shorts if there's no bid. So I'm gonna go $4 strikes, 60 points wide. Looks like you should be on the 52, 20 calls and the 51, 25 puts filled at 780. So we are in data released here in a little under 10 minutes. Yogadelic, check the trade plan. It's on my spreadsheet there. I use a $4 stop. I've also got a couple of time flies that I'll be watching. The one with the March 22 expiration, it's underwater a little bit. And so I need a move. So I'm holding it through FOMC to see if I can get a move out of this little droop and try to book a profit. The March 25th, or excuse me, the March 28th version is up a little bit, or it was. And I'm pretty close to break even now. But same thing, I may close that if we get some profits after FOMC here or at some point during this process. I also put on a double calendar earlier today with two, five DTE. See if we can't get some decent contraction in those front week options. And I get 20%, I'll close it out today. Otherwise it may consider holding until tomorrow depending on where it's at. I'm gonna turn on my financial juice so I can hear the audio a little bit. Obviously the probabilities are near 100% that there's gonna be no change in interest rates, but it's all about which way Jerome is leading with his language. And then depending on that, still don't know which way the market's gonna go. I don't recall seeing 95Y though before. Is that wider than normal for FOMC? I don't remember being that wide. Thought it was more like 60 or 70. Could be wrong actually. Check the old trade log. Okay, so last FOMC, which was January 31st, looks like 4865, 4920. Yeah. The one before that, 4620, 4670. So that was only 50 wide. The November 1st, 4180, 4235. Yeah, that was only 55 wide. Yeah, this is wide. The kids are expecting some movement. So Wednesday, or June 14th of last year, 4340. That was only 70. I'm just scrolling through the trade log. May 3rd of 2023, there's about 90 wide. March 22nd, 2023, that's 60 wide. Yeah, this is definitely, definitely some juice in these premiums compared to most FOMC days. December of 2022, that was a big one, 3935 puts, 4160 calls. Yeah, this is the biggest one in a while. I didn't think that this was the such an anticipated one. The options say differently. Three minutes till the data release. You know, a high of almost 5185 today. Low was 5172. All-time highs, 5189. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say, yeah, we're gonna hit some new all-time highs today. Dick K, you wanna take that bet? Are you on here? I'm still two down, two bets down to Dick K. He's never accepted his barbecue, the last two wins. Dick K is not focused. He's rolling around in his Cybertruck. Currently at 74, all-time highs, 89. You got, did you get your kid a mini version? 10 seconds till release. Little pop coming out at the 5187. Two points away, pop up to 87, which is the high of today. Vick's bouncing around. Obviously no change in the rates. One point away from all-time highs. Dick K, you still want it? Oh, there it is. Too late. I won. I always win the bets against Dick K that he doesn't accept. It's pushed up. We're getting some decay, but it's pushed up. So not seeing it in the P&L yet. 5192. Expected move to start the day on the upside is 5219. Expected move to start the day on the downside, 5144. Yeah, if I was a casino operator, you'd be banned, Dick K. Sorry, sir, you are no longer welcome to place bets in this establishment. Yeah, this little 20-point pop on the data release. If we come back down a little bit without volatility expanding much, we'll be in the profit. Bed projections imply a 75 basis point of rate cuts in 2024 from the current level, and then an additional 75 bits in 2025. Just looking at financial juice here. Oh, yeah. Nice little pop in gold, silver. We'll move higher in the Euro and pound. We'll move higher in Bitcoin. Move higher in commodities. Sweet, or excuse me, soybeans. Ten-year yield moving lower. We just put that SMH short strangle on a couple of days ago. It's already up 20, 25%. So I guess the 30% I'll take that off today. SPX still moving up over 5,200. Double calendar that I put on earlier is up a little bit. SPX at a high of 5,202. So now 5,201. The theta has definitely decayed. Price has just moved away from our center. Up over 20%, or almost 20%, comes back down towards 75,80. If I get to 30%, I'll close half. Then I'll close the rest at 25 after. Come on down, Mr. SPX, 25%. So let's see, I got it at 780. So at 5,45. It's to 5,45. I'll close half. It's currently trading about 6,40. If I get another buck out of it, close half. It's gonna need to come back down. No, no NDEX trade today. We get up to the upside expected move around 5,219. I'm gonna close out my March 22nd time fly. Probably still be for a small loss, but then my March 28th, it's got a small profit. Just hold that one for now. Yeah, correct Ken, I just, I mentioned I'm not doing anything except for the FOMC trades today. It's a little over six bucks. Come down another five or so points should hit that 30%. Still have a little over 10 minutes to all close. Those puts that I sold on my Iron Condor for, I ended up getting those for four bucks even. I'm currently trading for $1.50, $1.50. Down to six bucks. I'm looking for 5,45 to close half. There it is. Closing half, build at 5,50. I don't remember discussing that, but I think I've tested that at least in Option Omega, Elliot. And I've found that the 2,25 time, I think was the best historically, but yeah, I mean, I think you're right because I don't put the long strangle on until five minutes after he starts speaking. So I think there's a little bit more decay after he gets on, but I haven't redone those times on those tests in a while. Yeah, Naughty Dog, I don't know about others, but I don't take that till 235. You didn't have a bot for the first one, Naughty Dog? I did, I just, I set them both up as user triggered. Of course, it sounds like you were tied up as why you had the bot set up, but so I just manually launched it, but haven't managed by trade steward, just because it's easier. By the way, I responded to a couple of people that were chatting about bots. You know, one of the comments was they kind of, you know, they felt like they would give up control of the trade by using the bots, and that's definitely not the case. You know, for example, there's the trade that I'm in right now. And so when I launched it, instead of setting it all up and toss and setting my OCOs and doing all those things, all I had to do was come here and hit this little launch now button, choose the number of contracts, hit launch, and it does it all for you. It's got the stop set up, it's got everything set up, and then when I closed half, all I had to do is come over here, hit reduce trade size, enter five, hit push the button, and it automatically closed half. So you do have total control. You're not losing any control whatsoever. In fact, you're just gaining more control and just simplifying things. You know, two FOMC meetings ago, I made a mistake because I put in, I manually entered this exact same trade and toss and I put the stop in with my OCOs and what I did not realize, because I wasn't paying attention, is that my longs ended up having zero bid. So my stop didn't trigger and then I had to go in and manually do it and ended up losing a couple of thousand more just because of that little just mistake on my part. So the bots will, if the longs go to zero bid, it'll automatically switch over to just managing the shorts. So there's a lot of benefits to it. Or if there was a couple of times when the trade steward website was down for a couple of minutes, so something like that happens, you can always go in to toss and do all the same stuff that you always do. You know, and that's the other thing too. I mean, this hasn't happened in a while, but there was a time, I don't know, it was probably three years ago. There was like two days in a row, or maybe three when toss was down. So it can happen with, now with Schwab taking over, there's more and more things that are becoming an issue, but so it works both ways. You know, if the trade steward is active and toss goes down, you can still manage it with trade steward too. So it kind of works both ways. So Dick K selling the 40 delta put, buying the put 20 points lower, tranching in, interesting. I did do another one this morning, a ratio diagonal spread that Crane shared. Crane shared with Meach. Meach shared it, I did it, it was a winner. That's in the trade steward channel, yeah. All right, I'm gonna add this to my FOMC list for next time. It's PX hanging around 51, 88. All right, so I'm coming up to my exit time. So I'm gonna go ahead and close, build at 560. So in at 780, at a half at 550, at a half at 560. So about 30%, nice winner, winner, winner chicken dinner. Daedalus, it wasn't early for me, I closed it right on schedule, 225. It's all on the trade plan sheet in the back test. So now you're in about 10 minutes. I'll enter my long strangle, five minutes after the press conference starts. Yeah, so this one worked exactly like we like it to. We get the data release, get a vol crush, price doesn't move too much. That's how it's supposed to work, just like we drew it up. Let's see if we can double dip on the long strangle. See the $4 strikes are still 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 wide. 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 wide. Still 70 wide, but 30 Delta strikes right now would be the 5210 and the 5170, but got about eight minutes. Did you take that one this morning, Dick K? Oh, I was thinking it was a diagonal, so that's not, it's just zero DTE, okay? So cell, just a vertical sprint. They're just selling put spreads. SPX popping back up to 51.95. Here it is, MRP. Brought to you by our friend, Kreen. Kreen just got a, we named the trade after him, so this is called the Kreen. You know, kind of like the Wuga. That's the Kreen. SPX heading back up towards 5,200. It's one of your fellow trade hackers, Krish. Jerome is on the stand. So 30 Delta would be about the 5210 5170. I'll wait here just a couple more minutes. Does Krish need to change his name to I Apologize? Or My Bad? Let's change your profile name, Krish. Krish, AKA My Bad. Lot more movement expected. I'm still trying to figure out why the options are so expensive today. Compared to normal FOMC. I just, maybe I didn't pay as much attention. I didn't feel like this was such a big meeting. But sometimes the options know something that we don't. Yes, yes, I understand implied volatility. My point is, I'm not sure why this meeting was such a bigger anticipated meeting than others. Going in from a long strangle, looks like it's gonna be the 5,200, 5160. 5,200, 5160, filled at 1440. All right, let's rock Jerome. Got a 35% profit target. Start spitting your game, Jerome. So my PT is at 1945. Okay, get a little dancing going on, we'll pop. LA, did you hold your iron condor longer? Right, it looks like it would have done good. He's on the higher for longer speech right now. Quick move up to highs of day would get it for us boys and girls. It's gotta be quick though. Not one of these grinding moves higher. SPX up, fixed down. Highs of day might not get it, man. Still trading at 1650, profit target is at 1950. It's gonna have to break highs of day, maybe 5210, a little less. Gold back up. Double calendar from earlier is up a few hundred. My time fly sag is getting droopier, I need to move. Did not trade any futures today. Gold still moving up. New highs of day for gold, same with silver. 10 year yield bounce back. Yeah, give us a little push, a little 10 point push here. Strangles up about 15%. I'm looking for 35. It's trading to 1760, my profit target's at 1945. Gets up to 5210, quickly it'll hit. Fixed down to 13.43. SPX hit a new all-time high of 5204. Back up, new highs. Another five point push would get it. Trading at 1840, I need another buck. Another three S&P points, another dollar option point. Almost there little buddy, you can do it. Don't run out of steam yet. 20 more cents. Oh, didn't quite get there. Almost, almost. Hit it. Hit it. There we go, filled at 1945. Nice, couple of nice FOMC winners. I think, I believe everybody owes, you know, a thank you to Jerome for our nice profits today. So, let's see. So on my iron condor made 2250, on my long strangle made 5,050. SPX still moving, 5212. Fixed down to 13.35. About seven points under the expected move that we had to start today. Yeah, that's what I typically did when I wasn't trading a bot. I'm all in, all out today. See if I can get out of this time fly. We can get up to the expected move. That's still gonna be a loser. I'm gonna close this March 22 time fly. SPX high, 5215. All right, close the March 22, 25 time fly. We didn't, I got too much, too much droop, too much contraction, so that one's a loss. The other one, let me take off as well for a win. March 28, April 1, I guess it's more, I can't tell yet, bouncing around too much. Maybe closer to break even. I'll give it a minute. I'm gonna roll up puts in one of these MES strangles. Let that one sit, see if I get filled, trying to roll up puts on my MES, the 58 day one. Our double calendar had a little bit of profit, but looks like, still a little bit. SPX hovering, point under all time highs. E. Allison on the 58 day MES strangle, I'm rolling the puts from 47.50 up to 49.00. My order's at 7.50, not filled yet. There we go, filled at 7.50. Might take a little short if we get up to 52.19. See if we get a little fade move. Just gonna trade some futures, some micros, just small. Five minutes ago was trunch number one. For power hour, $4 strikes, 10, 20, 30 wide. Yeah, we got an update, and it's not even beyond the expected move to the upside. Opt above 52.15, but keeps getting shut down at 52.15. Yeah, I'll have to revisit that. Just anecdotally, Elliot, I feel like you typically get a fairly one directional move after FOMC the day after, so tomorrow. I'll have to dig, I know I've done some testing around that, I'll have to dig them up though. I just know I like to trade futures the day after because I typically catch some nice winners. Try and see if SPX punches up to around 52.19. I was gonna get short, but keeps getting shut down at 15. That's just where the expected move was to start the day. I like to play directional trades off that, and then if it keeps pushing through, it's a quick cut, but if it reacts off it, then you can sometimes get some nice winners. Got my order at 82 on the futures. Build, VIX down to 13.11. It's reacting a little bit off that expected move area. Regional banks having a good day, semiconductors up, retail up, financials up, everything's up except for healthcare. Crypto stocks up, riots up 10, 11%, Coinbase up 10, Robinhood up, seven, DraftKings. DraftKings came back to life. Tick below 10 bucks, it's up to 45. Eton still at $4. Oh my gosh, Maro. Sorry to hear that, my friend. SMCI continuing lower again. AMD's down, AMD got up to 227, now down to 179. SPX still holding below the expected move for now. Hit a high of 52.20. Gold still pushing higher, big move. Ten-year yield down to 4.265. Bitcoin back above 65,000. S&P up three quarters of a percent. NASDAQ up a full percent, Russell up 1.6%. Dow up almost 1%. Dow hitting new all-time highs, NASDAQ new, oh no, NASDAQ not hitting new all-time highs. The end of day flies only trading for about 50 cents. Well, Jerome gave me a nice little $7,200 a day, so I am going to sign off. Got some short futures here right at the expected move. We move lower, I will scale out as we push lower. We push back up above highs, I will just close out for a tiny loss. All right, all, every high line, have a fantastic night. Tomorrow's live stream, see tomorrow's the 21st, Thursday, so Chad will be streaming live in the morning for Mighty 90 and Runners, and then we'll be back on for Power Hour tomorrow afternoon. All right, all, take care, have a good one.