 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire.com or today We are getting you set for a jam packed weekend of awesome sports action. We're talking the Euro 2020 final We are talking the NBA finals all that with Edward e-gross You know him from the odds and eds podcast TV G's more ways to win and also a professor at SMU in Pepperdine We're gonna talk with Edward about both those things to get you said what for what should be an awesome weekend of sports action My name is Jim sawness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power ranked comm and ed We got the Euro 2020 final coming up on Sunday Italy versus England. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I've been calling it the Euro 2020 played in 2021, which is a little bit more specific But yes, it's like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of sports tournaments, right? Yeah, exactly So yeah, it's been very exciting. I've been pretty fully immersed in it. So yeah excited for the final I don't think it's gonna be a good match, which we will talk about later but there's gonna be a hero and there's gonna be a goat and That's the great thing about finals. I don't even you know penalty kicks would definitely make a quick hero and a quick goat. We might not get that far, but there's a lot of people in England that are very excited about this for good reason and You know, the Italians have been great. So Very different styles too. So I'm excited about the final and not from a betting perspective But it seems like from a a fan perspective this Euro 2020 has kind of been Everything it was billed to be just from like a quality like exciting match perspective. So I mean, it just seems like it's it's kind of Satisfied the the itch that we had for good international soccer. It feels like it's filled that to the fullest so far Well, it's also has potential to Fill it even more, right? This is the sport in which, you know, the Mexican coach got red-carded for Putting his hand around the ref while he was doing the VAR Video review That that's actually relatively minor to the best player of his generation head butting. Yep An Italian player in the World Cup final and then having so it's a Dan head-butted a player in the World Cup final Yeah, it was apparently picture-perfect form of how you headbutt someone So We could have more drama like we could reach another level in this final You know, we're gonna get a head-butt red card from someone as important as Harry Kane probably not But there is another level to be reached with the drama factor that is inevitable and in international soccer and What better person to break that down than Edward E. Gross if you're not listening to the odds and edits podcast on the Fandula podcast network. He talks through a lot of weird markets I'm not sure if John Sheeran has a market up about if there will be a headbutt But we'll talk to John try to get that post and if it is posted I can guarantee you Edward E. Gross will have a take on that you can find him on Twitter at Ed with sports as mentioned He's a professor at SMU in Pepperdine. He's on TV G's more ways to win the odds and eds podcast as well on the Fandula podcast network We're gonna break down both the Euro 2020 final and the NBA finals talk about game 3 for bucks and sons and the series prices There in just a bit but first make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast spotify stitcher Google podcasts radio calm wherever you get your podcast You can find us and make sure if you like what you hear Leave a rating and review as well as meant to the 2021 NBA finals are in full swing and Fandal and Taco Bell Are teaming up to that an extra layer of excitement to the action introducing the Fandal sports book and Taco Bell NBA finals comeback bonus the terms are simple all you had to do is head to Fandal sports book before tip-off and place a 25-plus dollar pre-live moneyline bet on either team to win if the team you bet on over comes a half-time deficit to win You will be eligible to receive a $10 bonus and Fandal site credit You'll win your bet and you'll earn that bonus now That's more ways to win thanks to our friends at Taco Bell Users must opt-in to the promo in order to be eligible for the bonus payout eligible every NBA finals game Until the bonus hits must be 21 plus and present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia refund issued as a non-withdrawable site credit that expired in seven days Max bonus $10 restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling gambling problem call 1-800 gambler in Colorado 105 to 240 700 in Iowa 1-800 bets off in Indiana 1-800 9 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1-800 270 7 1 1 7 in Tennessee call the red line 1-800 889 9 7 8 9 or in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler net before we talk to Edward though We got to go back to last week talk about the semifinals or the quarterfinals Euro 2020 and see what Alex Heiner and Ed Got right last week Covering the past Last week here on the show we had Alex Heiner on covering the spread to preview the quarterfinals of Euro 2020 You can find Alex on Twitter at 800 midco SN also check out his work over at numberfire.com for the Friday games He was in on Italy at plus 130 in Spain at minus 160 Italy got the win two to one over Belgium So that was a win there Spain had to go to penalties against Switzerland So if you bet them at minus 160 in regulation plus stoppage time No in there, but they did advance. So if you decided to bet Spain in that market, it was a winner there on Saturday So Jim that yeah, I mean that's a little bit of a tough loss, right? Because yeah, Switzerland picked up a red card late in the game and then after that Spain created numerous great chances and just happened to kick the ball straight at the Swiss keeper So I I think having that bet with Spain was still still a good call, right? And they did advance so hopefully you got Matt market to either way But a good call by Alex for sure on the Italy side of things on Saturday You both had action on Denmark versus Czech Republic Alex like the draw after full-time at plus 210 You wanted Denmark outright at plus 110 and they got the job done They beat the Czech Republic two to one win for you there and Ed Obviously you got the win. Did it play out as expected for you at Denmark there? I think so Denmark, you know what was up to nothing and then you know the Czech Republic? Hey, I don't think they're very good. They did create a bunch of chances in the second half They were able to score on what I don't think was a great Opportunity really they kicked it in the box and it kind of got through both a defender and by the post and then You know towards the end of the game, you know Czech Republic was a Czech Republic right not great chances kicking the ball in the box hoping for the best for a header And and as Alex Hynard said that wasn't gonna work that well with some of the aerial numbers for Denmark And that's kind of exactly what happened to ones Full-time and you can feel good about that one win for Ed there Finally Alex was on England minus 260 over Ukraine real no sweat there They won that one 4-0 so good week across the board for both you and Alex And I think that sets up well for a good week this week as well So let's bring on Edward e-gross and get set for the Euro 2020 final previewing Italy versus England again Check out Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports. He is a professor at SMU in Pepperdine But also of course he hosts the odds and heads podcast We're gonna get set for what should be a fun weekend by bringing him on now Covering the present Let's bring Edward e-gross back into covering the spread once again, and we talked about everything with Edwards So why not add on some Euro 2020 some NBA finals as well Edward? It's great to have you back on the show How are you doing today? Doing well doing well bright and early here on the West Coast, but I've got my cold brew Set up ready and raring to go so life is great I'm glad to see that moving to California did not change the Edward e-gross brand of the iced coffee You had to you had to keep some form of your identity with you in the move How has California been so far? You know, it's one of those things where when you talk about cold brew It's it's a great icebreaker and yes pun intended there But it's a great way to make new friends around here saying hey I just moved in where can I find you know the best cold brew and everyone has a recommendation because it culturally Cold brew makes a lot of sense around here Especially in the summer time and you know it's one of those things where I think LA Yeah, you have some chains around here, you know coffee shops restaurants, whatever But I think it and I don't have empirical evidence for this But it seems like more so here than in other places Keeping things local and finding excuses to go to the mom and pop shop whether it's coffee or whatever Is the way to go and people are willing to give those recommendations and they're great conversation starters And now that COVID is subsiding around here now you can finally have conversations instead of you know doing cold calls Another pun intended try to meet people and say hey by the way, I know you're in Santa Monica or I know you're in the Valley Where would you suggest I get a cold brew so yeah Well, what was it like for you like moving during COVID when you couldn't really like meet people like that? I feel like that would be Like it moving is hard enough, but like moving when you have those like extenuating circumstances just sounds like miserable It wasn't the best thing in the world. I will say this now I did have this one advantage where my first TV job after college was in El Paso and so Going from Dallas at SMU out to El Paso I basically knew where all the stops were and I knew where I could be comfortable in terms of a hotel Where I can fuel up for gas those kinds of things I I did make the drive, you know in a big, you know big moving van. Yeah, so that that was tons of fun I will say the the COVID thing. Yeah, it was a concern So you go to a gas station you mask up or double mask whatever and that's fine The bigger concern for me was that I think the cab of my moving truck was created in 1991 oh no, so there wasn't even a CD player in there much less Any other form of entertainment so I couldn't plug in my phone. There wasn't satellite radio There was no way to catch up on old podcasts except like just putting it on my phone and of course because it's a moving van It's incredibly loud in terms of ambient noise. And so even as I put my Smartphone on full blast in terms of volume. I couldn't hear anything very well And so I had to go old school and find old radio stations On the AM dial in the middle of nowhere, West Texas to figure out what was going on in the world And I'll tell you what Talk radio on the AM dial You know about the mainstream stuff, but even the things under the radar Fascinating absolutely fascinating The idea of conspiracy theories being on the internet. No, no it predates the internet and they're still going strong They may only have 30 listeners, but you know what it's still there ready for the taken Yeah, you got to get one of those little transmitters those little FM transmitters that you can plug into your cigar thing You know the little thing in your car Yo, I Be sick lighter adapter. I didn't think I'd ever have to need that again You threw it out like a cassette adapter that was that was weird It was like a cassette that you like plugged into your phone and like it put in when the cassette thing and like that was weird But now the idea of not even having that is wild I know and that was the I somehow had to be prepared for that and no one bothered to tell me when I was going to be in This moving van for 24 30 hours however long I was in there for and then what am I going to do? Use it or when am I going to use it again, right? I don't I don't plan on making another cross-country move anytime soon Now I am wiser just in case this happens and so In a podcast format like this one I can share this news and so it's news you can use I suppose but spreading the good word And just getting getting people prepared for whatever Lighter adapters in case you're moving across several states and time zones exactly So we have to pick Edwards brain about that We got to talk about moving cold brew, but also the Euro 2020 final is coming up on Sunday We got Italy versus England and interesting match-up here because Italy has the rest advantage They played a day before England gets to play at home. So Those are two interesting factors that if we're looking at things straight up We won't be baked in there But what for you what impact of those two things have the rest for Italy location for England? How does that factor into your analysis for this final? One thing Jim before we continue you may notice that I'm gonna accessorize a little bit Okay, this is a scarf. So yeah a little scarf here Because you know how chilly Los Angeles gets in mid-July so You get to a Dortmund scarf man, we can't have we can't have these English teams coming on this show Need to send you some German. Oh, no, no, I hey, I'll take freebies. No You know Like the old-school, you know radio DJs when they get you know all these obscure bands and t-shirts where that's basically their wardrobe Yeah, I can basically do the same thing. So yeah, just want to have this on here cuz you know He's still he's still with us Harry Kane. So that that's what he is. He's kicking. Oh, yeah I'm kicking. Yeah, absolutely is, you know the thing with You know rest home field advantage, you know those kinds of things that you know Really basically the schedule is going to adjust those things in terms of models and stuff like that when it comes to rest I don't necessarily buy into that too much even though like if we're talking NFL You have an extra week off or a bye week. I think that rest does help teams on the whole But here when you're talking about one day I would probably argue that England might be a little bit more rested in large part because of the way in those semi-finals Unfolded first off when you talk about Italy and Spain as far as that matchup What Spain loves to do is hang on to the ball as long as possible and wear you out If you have possession of the ball for a lengthy period of time and then someone tries to come after you Then you can pass it and pass it back And if if not then they'll continue to attack and then go all the way to the goal and give it a try And Spain's possession numbers were unbelievable as far as the tournament is concerned So I look at that and go that had got to have worn Italy out You know they they won in part because they were shooting the ball a good bit better But Spain was the better team as far as that semi-final was concerned So I look at that and go that must have been exhausting and not to mention in terms of strength of schedules So to speak just to get to the final Italy has had a much tougher track All the way around Meanwhile England probably has been able to conserve energy a good bit more. It's not necessarily ball control or you know lengthy period of possession, but I think the easier schedule all the way to the final What Italy has had to endure in terms of you know trying to maintain some kind of endurance I I add all those things up and I go. Yeah I could see England being you know having one fewer day to get ready being the better rested team And then you add on to that this idea of home field advantage. I do think that has a significant impact in this one I believe I read that 60,000 fans will be allowed at Wimbledon Stadium for this final Only 1,000 of them may be Italy fans And so you're going to have something lopsided not to mention like we've seen in other sports if You haven't won a championship in a long time. Sometimes the crowd gets Even more riled up as far as that's concerned and so I think culturally it makes a lot of sense for England to be prepared You know for a raucous crowd and you add that all up and I go This is going to be a tough ask for Italy in terms of the ancillary factors coming in Yeah, I think that's the understatement of the century there Edward Saying that there the English fans are a little revved up for this final. There are a lot of revved up I think there was supposed to be a cap at 60,000 and Wembley for the semi-finals that I'm sure they announced an Actual attendance that was larger than that So it is definitely going to be rockin and you know One of the things about home field is that the ref is slightly more likely to give you that penalty call late in the game When a player and look players on both of these teams are going to go down easy But England got a penalty Against Denmark. I thought it was a penalty in real time The replay suggested that you know, there wasn't a ton of contact on that play But that's how it goes right and so I think that's where the home field is really going to come in Yeah, exactly, and I couldn't agree with you more I mean I think even if you want to say okay that really wasn't a penalty or they could have handled it a little bit differently, whatever it is, I mean Denmark was kind of flirting with disaster for you know Good good bit of the match and so sure if it didn't happen then maybe you could have called something else that was that Dean that wasn't deemed a penalty, but it could have been in other contexts and look Raheem Sterling made a play You know you give him credit for that and then and that's fine I mean, you know, I'm one of those who believes that in certain situations maybe you need to be more complimentary of a player who knows the context and Decides to take advantage of that. I mean, I don't consider that cheap as far as I'm concerned but again, I think in terms of fouls for that match Denmark was called for 21 and England was called for 10 so it was already lopsided to begin with and Eventually it got called and eventually Harry Kane made it work on the rebound and you tip your cap in situations like that I mean if that rebound doesn't drop to his foot and somehow England loses I cannot even a map I mean, you might have to burn that Tottenham scarf If that happened, but I won't burn it I mean, I might I might put it in the back of the back of the drawer So so we got a market that's moving towards England. They're plus 155 to win in regulation plus stoppage time Italy's plus 200 What do you think about the money line in this game? So this was actually something that you and I had talked about prior to the recording here And I guess we can have bring it up again because I I still have gotten no closer to some kind of knowledge or intel that I'm comfortable with but when I Recorded my podcast odds and ends previewing Euro 2020 you know my my data and you know my feel as well said England was going to win this thing and You know in this long drought and England was the favorite at the time and I go, okay This is an efficient market The number makes sense. I'm fine with it. Let's go ahead and roll forward and life is good And then you know just a few hours or a couple of days before the tournament was set to kick off All of a sudden Belgium France all the other favorites were starting to take over and have their odds shortened and I could never really find a good reason as to why that was happening and You know this is something I'd love to you know pick your brain about in terms of how does something like that happen where I Couldn't find good Intel except to say well England's gonna find a way to screw it up this time and I'm thinking no They they're doing things very differently. They have a different approach. They're doing things the way you should do it when you have you know such star-studded talent and yet the market seemed to be going in the other direction and As it has looked so far the market was wrong and as someone who believes in efficient markets It has not made sense as far as the direction England is going and so I look at you know The money line for this match and I go I I might wait a little bit because you might get a better number Prior to kickoff if these trends are supposed to continue But no matter what I think England can win this in regulation Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think the markets move towards France because France is a better team I think and there is probably some leftover You know, there's a little bit of excitement about France just because they did win the World Cup in 2018 You know when they haven't won something in a while Then they're usually the second or third or fourth favorite and then you talk about how oh France Always has the talent to win which is true And then for Belgium. I mean, you know, they're they're the top European team in my numbers I believe they still are they have this golden generation with everyone healthy and playing well They might be the best team in the tournament That didn't happen With with injuries the Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne didn't really play that well in the last game So I do understand that But the timing of the movement though is what's weird to me Like if you believe that that Belgium is is on this run or you know, France can carry over the World Cup momentum Whatever it is That's fine. I mean, that's perfectly reasonable But the timing of the movement is what seems odd to me. It was right before the start of the tournament, right? Right. Yeah. No, I mean, I think that makes actually a lot of sense to me because that's when I mean That's probably when your market is going to be sharpest on your prior heading into the tournament having not seen how great England's defense Was playing in this tournament Not seeing whether de Bruyne was going to play for Belgium things like that, you know, I I guess assume that you know I guess it was really France, right, you know, France took over as the betting favorite and I don't know. I think that does make sense. I mean, it hasn't worked out for them, but That that's how random the sport is. That's true So let's say the number sticks at 155 on the money line for England Are you comfortable with it at that number? Like let's say hypothetically it stays there Would you be okay with that or would you want it to lengthen more before you dive in? I'm comfortable with 155. I mean, I I might still wait a little bit just because again, you know market fluctuations I feel like may go in the other direction in terms of lengthening it I think 155 is fine in large part because you know England to me is is the more talented club Coming in and that's that's great. And what matters here is okay. So what's then your approach? You know for for England, it's you know about the midfield playing defense It's about ball control and then eventually letting you know Harry Kane or Raheem Sterling do their thing and that's the way it's meant to me You want to in large part lower that volatility Lower the number of shots in the entire match and so that you can play to your strengths And limit, you know, those fluky things that that could happen and you know Ultimately making a more high-scoring match or whatever it is for PK is whatever it is But to me England is doing everything properly in terms of trying to win a match When you know you have as much if not more talent than your opposition Not not to mention, you know, when you look at, you know England being an analytically driven team What they did with set pieces back in the 2018 World Cup Really should be studied by many more people than it is That they found a market and efficiency with set pieces and were able to exploit that in the World Cup They're carrying that information over in terms of overall strategies into the euros That's exactly what you should be doing So there's a comfort in terms of their background the research their approaches and strategies Lowering volatility and I feel like they can continue that with one more match, especially at home So you talked about your podcast odds and ads which you could find of course on the fan dual podcast network And your specialty ad is finding weird off the beaten-path markets So we got a lot of markets for this game between Italy and England anything standing out to you as being advantageous right now How about Italy first booking at minus 114 that that one? I really really like it in part because You know did did anyone look at Denmark strategy coming in and say okay? If you're going to beat England, this is how you do it You got to get physical with them in the midfield. You got to do those kinds of things that's certainly a possibility and if we are also meant to believe that calls Favor the home team and soccer for the most part Then that would make more sense that you know Italy is going to be the first to get some kind of foul call or a card or something like that So that one I feel comfortable with also too when it comes to who these scores are going to be for England Everything starts with Harry Kane as I've mentioned before Anytime goal score at plus 185 not a surprise who England is you know wanting to gear the attack toward What makes it difficult for opposition is how it gets done Even if it's something simple as a PK, you know Harry Kane is going to be tagged to do that Even when it comes to set pieces Kane will have some involvement as far as that's concerned And so anytime goal score plus when he fought 185 feel good Italy first booking minus 114 Those are probably two my two of my favorites also Given how well England plays defensively being at plus 146 for a clean sheet With that kind of approach also makes a lot of sense to me again It's been the flukey things that you know might cause oppositions to tally But you know at some point you got to say okay, you know, who's the better team here? They have all these things going in their direction You know a clean sheet of plus 146. I'm good with Awesome, let's switch over to the NBA side Phoenix took a two-nothing lead over Milwaukee last night What has stood out to you about these first two games? So we talk about this in football a lot where if you have a lead you run the football it's ball control wind down the clock, etc. etc and Sometimes football games are decided in the first quarter by by just having a lead and hanging on and sort of dealing with the ebbs and Flows of the contest and that's fine. I actually think Here with the Suns, they're doing something similar when you look at their three-point shooting attempts They're 15th in the regular season. They play in one of the slower They play one of the slower paces in the NBA But they're fourth in the regular season in mid-range attempts and first and mid-range shooting percentage So I add all of that up and say okay Phoenix wants to have an early lead especially if you're at home for these first two games But when you have that early lead then you kind of do what you want and you're not forced into a game plan that increases volatility, but also Forces you to do things that you're not necessarily as comfortable with Phoenix isn't a great three-point shooting team. The reputation may be a little bit different But the numbers really don't add up Devon Booker is a great example where for some reason a lot of people love to call him an outside shooter He's not a great outside shooter But he is a great mid-range shooter and he's great getting to the hole and you do so many other things really really well I mean very impressed with this game throughout the playoffs, but To me Phoenix needs to have an early lead to control the game slow the tempo down Go to what they're comfortable with in terms of mid-range jumpers because defenses are either playing off of them or switching to something That's not advantageous for Milwaukee or the opposition, but I look at that and go Phoenix needs a lead. Are they going to be able to do that on the road? That's going to be a big question, but at least through the first two games It's steady as she goes for them. So that's one thing another thing too with Milwaukee There is a Drew Holiday problem here, which is unfortunate because he's one of the main reasons why Milwaukee has gotten this far But for some reason He's shooting 43% In the restricted area in the finals missing a lot of point-blank layups And he's attempting about as many close shots as anybody in the series So for him to miss so many bunnies That is a real cause for concern and why that's happening. I'm not exactly sure I mean, you know, there may be a former player who can explain that better than than I can but Brooke Lopez probably should also be held accountable as well He's at roughly 50% from the restricted area and so there are a lot of Gimmies that Milwaukee's not getting for whatever reason. So that's another thing Chris Middleton he's been a little bit colder than you would expect and Giannis does need that offensive help He can't do everything on his own and as great as he has been through the first two games and really fighting through injury He needs additional help and it can't just be from fellow big guys that worked in the Atlanta series that's not gonna work here in the finals and so even though Milwaukee has sort of taken advantage of things that We thought might be problems coming in like free-throw rate because the Suns are so phenomenal at that Or, you know, offensive rebounding those kinds of things Phoenix has always had an answer Even if it's something simple as making more three-point shots like in game two. So Overall I go What are the adjustments that they need to make coming in for game three? I I'm sure they'll figure out something but at the same time the Drew Holiday issue and Playing from behind those are things that you know, they have to be resolved quickly and they are running out of time Well, I think the game three specifically is interesting because they go to Milwaukee now and a lot of things you were discussing From one mindset you could say they're due for progression in those numbers because you don't miss you don't expect NBA players miss bunnies all going forward unless it is something like you discuss like maybe it's psychological That could totally be true. So as we shift to game three the Bucks are four-point favorites at home Are you expecting? Some progression here from Milwaukee, or do you think Phoenix continues doing what they've done the opening couple of games? I Would expect some progression But is it going to be enough to win the game because I mean you can still lose a you know In a one possession affair and now you're down 3-0. So that that's certainly something where I don't necessarily I'm expecting Phoenix to blow out Milwaukee these next two games but What's interesting to me in terms of you know who you start with and how rotations are going to be constructed for this third game Drew Holiday has certainly played well defensively and you want to keep them there on the floor I mean, I believe he helped force six turnovers by Chris Paul Which is unbelievable when you think about how efficient Paul has been in terms of the assist to turnover ratio And so certainly I understand You know giving holiday heavy minutes, but if there are serious offensive issues and you're playing from behind You know, why do you need the defensive presence at some point? You got to figure out something else to get your outside shooters like a Pat Connaughton more involved in the offense Even though Connaughton is a defensive liability. So the construction is going to be interesting But at some point you go, okay Is this holiday thing is this Middleton thing going to get resolved having that extra day of rest and actually pinpointing What's going on or is luck going to finally go their way and if it does then okay? Yeah, Milwaukee can probably take one or two, you know coming up for this, you know two-game home stretch but at the same time Four is it seems like a lot to me and so I I will probably lean suns plus four At this point even though I hate the idea of succumbing to recency bias But it's not something where I would necessarily take Phoenix on the money line because I do believe that Milwaukee can find some Way to steal one or two and keep this thing close Sons are minus 480 to win a large part due to their 2-0 lead any interest in box at plus 380 to come back Oh, no, no, I couldn't I couldn't because I mean part of it too is All right So what what is the worst case scenario for Phoenix in terms of how they completely fall apart? One thing that I could think of is it, you know, I hate to predict this necessarily I don't wish this for him obviously, but something always seems to happen to Chris Paul in terms of injuries You know, he's had horrible luck throughout his playoff career as far as that's concerned I I would not be surprised if if say there's some kind of minute restriction or something like that on him If things get a little bit too physical in game three for whatever reason Or or beyond that but at the same time even if he you know, isn't there as much as you would like You still have an incredible backcourt teammate and Devin Boker Deandre Aitin has played You know incredibly well. You've got other guys who've been able to shoot well from You know three-point range. So all things considered Yeah, Milwaukee may have a couple of games in them I still think Phoenix can win this in as many as six games But the idea of the the bucks coming in and taking four or five. I just don't see anything To suggest that at this point. So the implied odds at minus four eighty or eighty three percent Is that high enough for for you to stay away from backing the Suns in this market? Or do you think there's still an edge in potentially betting them at minus four eighty? I Don't necessarily see an edge there. It's probably more of a stay-away for me as far as you know a series result is concerned probably I'm more comfortable picking the number of games and going that direction and certainly With you know, how convincing the Suns have been through these first couple of contests The idea of it going beyond five games You know may seem odd to the market and so that may be where you can find your Advantage as far as getting a couple of extra shekels, but still though. I you know the idea of You know getting a series out right there That does look efficient to me and that's probably a stay-away All right, that is Edward e-gross You can find him on Twitter at Ed with sports check out the odds and that's podcast as well check him out on TV Everywhere else as well. Edward. We appreciate the time as always enjoy the NBA finals Euro 2020 And they'll be all-star break all coming up here. Have a great time. Hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Sounds great. Sounds great Covering the future Big thank you once again to Edward e-gross for swinging by and breaking down the Euro 2020 final and also the NBA Finals Ed still plenty to break down with this Italy versus England match. I know you've got your numbers as well We heard Edward's thoughts. What are you seeing here for this final between Italy and England? Yeah, so Jim, do you remember the the college football game of the century? No, so 2011 LSU travels to Alabama in a matchup of undefeated. Oh the 9-6 game Yep, so I'm pretty sure that was when LSU had that Aussie punter who was like a total nut job I'm pretty sure he was in that game and I'm pretty sure that like led him to superstardom Brad Wing Yes, yes, you obviously know how the game turned out LSU 9-6 Neither team scored a touchdown LSU kicked a field goal in overtime and neither team Despite overtime had more than 300 yards of offense So the final between Italy and England should have a very similar defensive flavor. So I calculate numbers based on match results since beginning of 2016 It's based on the idea that these national teams tend to be pretty stationary over long periods of time And Italy and England have the second and fourth best defenses in the world based on those numbers So if you're new to soccer and you've been hearing about these exciting matches between Spain and Croatia and france and switzerland and you're thinking about checking out the game on sunday and 9 to 6 LSU over alabama game kind of makes you mad. Well, you know, Italy and England is going to be kind of like reading Dickens aloud on a first date Not gonna be an exciting. Are you speaking from experience with that Ed or no? Oh, no, no, okay good No, I actually like dickens quite a bit, but he's an english author and there are parts that are slow, so But um, but anyways, it's gonna be a slow game I do think that leads to some betting opportunities My numbers have about a 73 chance that they're under two and a half goals the So, I mean, I bet this earlier in the week, um, you know, draft king still has it at minus 200 I think still think there's a little bit of value in there, but I don't think there's going to be there for too long So I see a slow paced game. You know, it's not like these teams can't score. England has a lot of offensive talent They tend not to They tend not to emphasize that they don't have a scheme that really Highlights that offensive talent. They have gotten some goals Let's throw out the ukraine game because they weren't particularly good But you know, they did have some chances against Denmark in a 15 minute stretch right after Denmark scored. They they looked very good they obviously looked good in The extra time as well when they ended up getting that penalty kick So they are dangerous. Italy is going to want to possess the ball. They've done that Brilliantly in this tournament except for the last match against spain. They were kind of terrible in possession very uncharacteristic so if they do You know, if they do play their game of possessing the ball breaking down the english defense if they can You know force england into a mistake in the back Which you know is more likely than it is against some other national teams They could score too, but I just don't see a lot of goals in this game So I believe you said that you are a strong proponent of the nine six game, correct? I wouldn't say a nine six. I mean, I wouldn't say strong proponent I think we need to appreciate a defense and so a nine 16 doesn't make me angry in any stretch Does that translate to Soccer as well like are you also someone who appreciates good defense there? Or is that just a football thing? Other football I mean, I think I do appreciate good defense, right? I mean england's defense has been great I mean they Are fantastic at snuffing out anything an opposing team wants to do in the midfield with their athleticism and Uh Reading the game. Uh, so yeah, I know I definitely do appreciate that. Um I mean there's a lot of ways to win and Uh, I I prefer attacking soccer because you know the way especially like the spanish have been playing The way they attack is is beautiful. It's and it's great and it will uplift your soul So we'll see if it really can uh do a little bit of that in this game But I mean england's going to be really hard to break down And I feel like the there is an overlap between good defense good fundamentals and what you've talked about with the boondest lego Where it's just good soccer and even if it's not like super high scoring You can appreciate it for being that being good soccer It seems like there is an overlap between good defense and appreciating just the the artwork that's kind of on the on the pitch It seems like yeah, for sure. And if you're possessing the ball that limits opportunities for The other team But if you are possessing the ball, no team is perfect And so you are potentially going to leave one two opportunities And you know that counter attack is actually a pretty good way to score because there tends not to be as many defenders back. So um Yeah, I mean I I've finally come to realize and just appreciate that there's a lot of different ways to win at this game And even though I don't really like the way england goes about trying to win games, uh It could work. It could absolutely work. So and and my numbers do favor them uh to lift the cup Okay, so we'll see how that breaks on sunday and see who can emerge from england and italy for the euro 2020 final My covering the future is going back to nascar for this week nascar Going to atlanta the first time they were there. Kyle larson was dominant led 269 laps out of 3 25 finished second and if I look at my win simulations this week larson is at 21% His implied odds at plus 260 are 28% so I can't get there Which means there should be value elsewhere and to me the best lingering value is actually His teammate william byron at 14 to 1 to win for this week Byron is an 8 to win in my win simulations versus 6.7 implied So a decent little edge there for an outright and The reason byron grades out so well Is in part due to consistency that can sometimes overrate guys But I do account for consistency trying to weed out the guys who just get their via consistency and downgrade their win odds But for byron, he's at a top 10 average running position in every race using this 550 horsepower package so far this year That means the consistency is there But I don't think that should be taken to mean that he lacks upside He's shown a ceiling in a track like this He won homestead and there are a lot of overlaps between homestead and atlanta They're both mile and a half tracks both have a lot of tire wear and byron has shown He can beat larcen on this track type already this year by winning in homestead. That's not the only big racer He had a third place average running position in charlotte as well another track with a similar configuration very different tire wear, but I think that what that has shown to me is that We're potentially underrating william byron's upside right now. He gets this this He gets the accolades for his consistency all the top 10 finishes But I feel like we've gone too hard towards that and we're now underrating his upside He has just won wins so far this year, but he has shown the components necessary for a win on a track like this So 14 to 1 for william byron. I think is a very advantageous number. I like him a lot there Again the simulations see an edge so william byron my bet to win this week in atlanta at 14 to 1 You should get right now at vandal sportsbook if you want to have some fun You could bet tyler retic at 85 to 1. I hate out. I hate long shots personally, so i'm not going to get there But I do think it's pretty interesting He's at 2.2 implied or 2.2 in my sims 1.2 implied not a bad edge So if you want to have some fun and bet a long shot tyler retic is interesting for me for this week Based on the homestead angle, but william byron my preferred bet for this week And I'm guessing I can safely assume nascar will not be on the television as it overlaps at the euro 2020 final Yeah, probably not, but what is the typical win percentage for the favorite by it's not 21 percent. I'll guarantee that It's not 21 percent But like it's it's it's a different scenario So like usually like when I run my win simulations The the favorite for me will max out around like 15 or so percent But larson's been just disgusting and like I have Run my model since start of 2019. So I have data on every race since then For a race that does not have practice Kyle larson's projected average running position is the best I've had for any race without practice in that entire time um, so It's it's it's very odd that his implied odds are this high, but I also I I get it like I get it for sure interesting so you know golf The favorite these days is usually like 15 16 percent, right? Yeah, and that was kind of typical of nascar before larson went on this run pretty much It was typical for the most part last year You would see kevin harvick denny hamlin inch closer to like, uh, you know, they'd be like 450 or so But 260 for a Non-road course like road courses are different because like chase elliott martin chuex and now larson are the guys who mop up there But for a an oval race, you don't see guys that plus 260 ever, uh, and like larson was great when he was you know, we talked about him when he was I actually had him at 230 to or three to one to win No, he got 480 when he opened uh to win the all star race. I thought that was I thought I was ecstatic about that But 260 is like I get it But it's just so short and like they probably just tired of losing money with this guy Winning races so I understand it But yeah, it's it's definitely odd to see someone this low But it's also odd to see someone as dominant on this track type as larson has been Cool So we'll see if uh, william byron can unseat his teammate for this week That is all that we have for this week here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to edward eagross for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on euro 2020 final and the nba finals Check him out on twitter at ed with sports and check out the odds and ed's podcast as well Ed what is going on for you this week over at the power rank? I had brennan kent, uh On podcast he's done a lot of work in sports analytics teaches a class at linfield university Actually has a great story about how he Got a job with the portland timbers as an undergrad at harvard. So that's on the football analytics show writing my email newsletter over at the power rank com So trying to give uh data driven betting advice in an interesting way So check that out at the power rank dot com. All right and also check out ed at the power rank on twitter I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast and also make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast big. Thank you to calvin thea bald our video producer For running the video side of things here today. Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in enjoy Which should be a fantastic weekend of sports. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network erin dolin here Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great fan dual content And check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here