 Okay, that's 1 p.m. British summertime. Welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me loud and clear and you can see the welcome screen if you could just type a Y in the chat box so that I know we are good to start. Testing audio, one, two, three. Testing audio, one, two, three. If you can just type a Y in the chat box. Thanks very much. Okay, let's show on the road for jumping to charts today as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today, the views and opinions expressed by me in this session are solely mine they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. For those of you that are here for the first time today, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated university, I joined a CCPLC consulting firm, I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, focused on CC, C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So I decided to proceed to the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriate at that stage day gambling. As early beginners luck I wrapped up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. I really have to stand back and figure out it's feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was the time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality. All of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientation individual focus purely on financial gains to becoming process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategies, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in a form of losing But once you become process oriented and you have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical mental skills to be consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my management and mentoring, I'm a resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tickmail. I provide an in depth daily market outlook breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about three to five markets per day. These are shared through the tickmail trading view accounts. I also run tickmills E-mini strategy group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trade plan for the New York cash trading session of the S&P 500. Giving my buyers for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have offered over 2200 points of profit since we launched last April. The second tickmail strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tickmail futures trading telegram group is a real time environment. On a daily basis I share in depth insights analysis and real time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading uses. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's jump in to the charts. So as always we're going to start with the equity indexes and the S&P 500. I'm using the E-mini futures contract here, but the levels can be altered and represent the S&P 500 essentially. So what have we got? Well, I've been tracking a potential five-way sequence to complete into this 3690-3700 area. You can see here on the daily timeframe we've got this descending trend line support coming in. We've also got the 131 extension of our 4631 swing high. So what I'm looking for today now is for us to complete this five-way sequence and potentially trade higher to really encourage long positions or to engage on the long side. We really want to take out the high post the FOMC press conference last night. That would suggest that we have a tradeable low in place and back through this 3850 level. If we could do that, the target for me becomes this high volume load here on the four hour chart, 4118. We have the descending trend line resistance coming in there, 4130s. Now if we don't get a river, if we don't see bids come into the market today, then I'm anticipating we will trade down. The next area of interest is going to be the 3620 area. Now the 3620 area represents a symmetry swing. So this was the pandemic decline and that 3620 matches the scale of that decline from the highs here. So that's going to be the next area of interest for me on the downside if we don't hold 3700. So if we open up in the cash trading sessions today, we have weakness, we take out the 37 to 3690 area. Then I'm going to be looking for shorts to trade down into that target zone on the next level to the 3620s. Next we have the NASDAQ. You'll see similar pattern developing here. We haven't quite made a new low here. We're holding potential double bottom. So again, the pattern I'm watching for here, let me just draw it in for you, is we're basically looking for this five wave sequence to complete. So we have a wave four high in place here. So what we're looking for is a marginal new low to develop here in the NASDAQ to complete the sequence. And then I'm looking for the same trade here in the NASDAQ back up into the high volume low 12600 there. And in terms of the target for where we'd ideally like to see this wave five low complete. We have targets and below us 11,000 11,094 down to 10,900 rules have monthly projected range support there coming in and we have the trend line support there as well. So any move down into this zone, you watch for bullish reversal patterns. As long as we maintain momentum divergence where I'm talking about momentum divergence what I want to see here ideally is price making me low, but we don't see a new low in terms of the momentum indicator here. And that will, that should encourage them bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking initially for test up into 12,600 moving to the Dow Jones. You can see a lot of these charts are in a similar set up here we have made a marginal new low. What I'd ideally like to see now let's just bring this here. So I'd ideally like to see a test here, just taking out the 30,000 level into 29,900 29,800. And then I look for a game bullish reversal patterns as long as we may maintain momentum divergence that's key for these reversal plays or counter train trades. We want to take, we want to make that new low and then we're going to be targeting that high volume nose on the on the chart. Moving to the Russell. Russell week has still has an equality objective versus the swing high here at 2140s down into the weekly high volume node 1562 and 1579 is the equality objective. We're looking for the Russell to break down and test that area, and again from there we're watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, and I'd be thinking about move up into trend channel resistance here towards 1900. The main loss of if we don't find sport at that 1560 area 1570 next downside objective becomes the yearly S3 down to 1410 on the downside. DAX pivotal test here for the DAX. If we take out this trend line support here on a closing basis on a weekly closing basis 12987. And then we have an equality objective becomes the high volume node 1230. 12,360 and then we have an equality objective to the downside which coincides with 61.8 so retracement of the post pandemic advance would see us down testing 11,003 11,200 would be the next downside objective so really going to be key this week and next we take out this trend line that suggests significant weakness and we would be looking then for a more significant breakdown in terms of the DAX so we are sitting right at the equality objective here at 13,000 so let's see if buyers are going to step back in and again target becomes the high volume mode on the four hour chart here which would see us back up into just below the 14,000. It's really going to be key to see if we can hold that trend line support. Okay, similar type of setup here for the Nikkei testing some pivotal levels here, trying to try and bottom here on the four hour chart. We have got some nice momentum divergence idea you want to see this cycle in the case of go green again, and if we can get a daily reversal from here, then we're talking range resistance back up to 28,365 for the Nikkei, equally like I like I haven't just talked about the DAX, we take out this trend line support from the pandemic lows on a closing base on a weekly closing basis, the next downside objective initially becomes the yearly S3 23,035, then the quality objective versus the swing high here at 28,545, which would see us testing 22,525 on the downside dollar index, looking for a way five test here to just above 106 would be an ideal objective we have the yearly R3 there 10630s. I am actually running a short dollar position at the moment. I would look to add to that on any testing to that 10630s, as I'm anticipating that that will at least see us move back to retest the prior highs at 104. At this stage, any close through that 10630s will be a very bullish development, and the next upside objective technically will be the 10730s on the upside. Euro, obviously the ECB, the ad hoc meeting yesterday hasn't done much really to support the Euro, and as we stand at the moment as resistance is maintained above 105, the target now, the next downside objective is 10220s, and then we're thinking about a parity test for the Euro. This stage can't really get constructive on the Euro, until we trade back through the trend line resistance here in the pivot 10620s on the upside. Dolly, and this is another short that I've got running at the moment. Nice bearish reversal from weekly range resistance is the potential we could make a new high here into the R3 at one of just above 136, but we've got some nice momentum divergence in play. So I could see us testing back into these prior highs 13120s. If we don't find support there, then we look for a retest the potential way for low back to the 12650s. At this stage also, I want to would highlight on the four hour chart that makes just drawings. We are finding support at a quality objective versus this swim structure here. So you can see three waves. So there is certainly the potential we make a new high here. We really want to see this support go at 131 area to get really interested on the downside that like I said I'm running a short in that at the moment but this this doesn't look too encouraging as we're holding the objective and the weekly range sports. It could be that we are yet to make another new high into that R3 as highlighted on the daily timeframe. And then again I'll be watching for that bearish momentum divergence to work to be maintained. And again, I would look to work to reengage on the short side. So similarly, what I'm looking for in the Euro yen is a test of trend line support now 13730s. And I think if we look at this structure here. So just below we have the high volume note on the four hour chart, and we have the quality objective versus the swing high here so that will complete a technical three wave corrective move. Then we watch a bullish reversal patterns into this area. And if you get that then I'd be looking to reengage on the long side in terms of your own yet. Central double top here. It's, and the rejection from the yearly R3. So for now, from a technical perspective, let me just remove these and give you some targets to think about. So, whilst we hold this one structure here so against the 94 58 high I'm looking for a test of 90 20. We've got a monthly projected range support there so if we are going to take another look at the upside this is the target so forever be watching for bullish reversals to engage on the long side, looking for a minimum retest of the price cycle highs on route then to new highs and got trend channel resistance monthly projected range resistance coming in just above the 99 handle there in terms of the awesome yen. A bunch of these ends are in a similar setup here cad yen. We can be thinking now about moving back into the 180.85 area, which is just below monthly projected range support. So we've got trendline support coming in there as well. Yes, we've got trendline support there. So this cad yen could give us an opportunity in the coming sessions here. If we can hold into this 101 to 100, 101. Yeah, just below 101 100.85 of the trendline support monthly projected range support just above there. So again I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns as an opportunity to engage on the long side. If we take out this trendline support that we could have much more meaningful high in place. And what I'd be thinking about there would be this type of scenario so we break down, check back into the trends line support then to act as resistance. Then we got a potential head and shoulders scenario in play, and a much deeper correction to develop, but watching that trendline test as the first area of interest. The dollar cad held that 125 area and we have since seen a move to the upside looks pretty impulsive at this stage. So what I look for now in the dollar cad here on four hour timeframe, something like this test into that high volume node, we've got 128 40s. We've got monthly a daily projected range for what just below. So what's a bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, looking for a retest in those prior highs to 130 70. The ultimate upside objective we've got for that dollar cad remember is the quality objective 132 14 sterling. We've tested and held and we're getting a nice nice price structure developing here and got these inside candles and inside pin bar to the upside if we get a close like this or back through those 122s I want to be trading sterling on the long side, looking for a retest of the trend channel resistance coming in 124 25s keep an eye on this one talked about it last week we were looking for this test of the 120 handles or good bits emerge there held the yearly S3 these are pivotal levels to see where if we're going to see buyers step in meaningfully, and we could have a decent low in place here for sterling obviously be a row rates 25 basis points today. And so, you did see a bit of weakness post that post that decision, but we can see that buyers are trying to step in here and defend this 120 so watch the clothes there on sterling tonight could be an opportunity to engage on the long side. I'll say we are looking for 66 40s on the downside. And we're seeing a bit of weakness develop here. So any break back through 68 30s. I want to be sure looking for that 66 40 area for we try and put in more meaningful bottom there in terms of the Aussie. Gold. Yeah disappointing goal, but a nice outside reversal candle last week on the clothes couldn't take out the highs and we're since reversing. This suggests we could, we could be looking to take out this trend line support. And if so, we want to start thinking about downsides how it's here to go let's just draw in what we've been thinking of. We have a downside quality objective back into range support at 1670 on the downside, close for gold this week is going to be interesting any breakthrough 1780s, I want to be sure looking for 1670s to include oil crude breaking down through the trend channel support I think there's a bit of weakness developed here in crude, obviously it's US driving season is starting but we're hearing rhetoric outs of by President Biden yesterday, very concerned about the profits that these, these oil producers making so what we think about now is if we get a move back to 1130s, watch how we react on a retest of that trend channel support potentially now to act as resistance, and we could have more meaningful high here, back down into the high volume load towards the $100 level in terms of crude. We held that 78.6% of traceman here on the daily. And so things could be weakening up a bit here for crude 108 would will be an interesting level to keep an eye on as well. Bitcoin. Bloodbath continues, we were watching this trend line support gave way. So the setup or the level of most interest to me now in terms of Bitcoin is whilst we trade below this trend line resistance. So as that holds, we are looking for a move down to test 12,460, which is the quality objective versus the swing structure here I've drawn a label it up for the purposes of those who follow it. So that test 12,460 will be very interesting if we get it, and we'll see, we'll see how we do that can't get constructive on Bitcoin until we take out 27,500 train channel resistance to the upside. Either this was one we have last week where I was talking about short through the 1700 level. It worked very well, get down $250 of profits there are 250 points to the downside, and I still see further weakness I'm looking for a test of 851, which is the quality objective versus the swing structure here on the daily. Again, pay close attention to how we trade there. Certainly if that coincides with Bitcoin testing that 12,000 area, we could have a tradeable local low in place at a minimum bear. I'm going to finish up this week with a couple of stocks that I'm watching single name stocks CFDs. I'm looking for a test of 150. I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns there. I want to see some momentum divergence maintained here on the daily timeframe as an opportunity to engage on the long side. Initially looking to move back up towards $200 on the upside with a video. These will be posted on the trading view account I'll post the link in a minute for those who want to follow these up on a daily basis. Microsoft Goldman Sachs, Pivotal 280 test, 50% retracement of the post pandemic advance. So watching now for further upside momentum to develop here, we can get back through the $300 level. I've got an initial target up at $321 and potentially further upside there if we can break out of the trend channel. If we take out the lows through 275, the next downside target becomes 250 for Goldman. Microsoft 240 was the equality objective versus this swing structure here. We tested and held what I'm looking for now to gain some positive momentum divergence. What we want to see is a move through this for our trend line resistance. If we can get back through 265 on the upside, we've got high volume note at $300 on the upside to target. However, if we don't see any follow through today and obviously futures are weak at the moment in terms of the US so if we take out 232, the monthly projected range supports, then we look for a move to the high volume note and the $131 extension at 215 as the next downside objective for Goldman, sorry for Microsoft there. So with a couple of BTS TLT, which is the 20 year treasury bond futures, we have tested the equality objective versus this bigger swing structure here at the 110 level. We've also got the yearly S3 monthly projected range support. So I'm looking for any move back through 113 initially targeting the high volume note on the weekly chart of 121. If we go through there, then we can think about a retest of the descending triangle prior support to Actors resistance 135. However, if we can't break out of the train channel and sell a step back in this 121 area, I want to be short, initially looking for a move to 95 30s and then the technical target for the triangle break is 89 90s on the downside. So we're here with Excel, the energy ETF, looking now for a test of the trend channel support here. Don't have the project is a bit lower at the high volume notes 7690 so let's see if we get this type of structure here now. So let's just take out the train channel support on a fake breakout by a step back in at the high volume mode. I'm looking for us to trade higher, and take out the price cycle highs in terms of XLE. We can be thinking then about monthly projected range resistance towards that 100 level. So let's pay attention to how we trade at the trend line 79 90s and the high volume on the quality objective 7690s as a potential reversal so. So that's those are the charts that I'm tracking at the moment and the trades that I see developing in coming sessions and press a couple of links into the chat for those that are interested. So we have the technical future strategy group so where I give the SMB 500 daily trade plan for those that are interested in getting that you just have to request access, and I'll add you to that group, and then we'll also post the trading view accounts one second guys. So I think we'll allow you to follow my daily trade setups and updates through that, that technical training account. So are there any questions, equally if you don't have a question type in any of the chat box, I know that a reasonable job explaining things and we can see questions coming through here one second. Yeah, I've just run through the forex pairs that I'm tracking there. Hopefully that's that helped you. GBP. Okay, let's change these up here and here. So certainly Swiss obviously Swiss National Bank surprised markets today coming in with a bit more of a well certainly a lot more than a race 50 bits today. So we're seeing right and monthly projected range support so this so far this month we tested monthly projected range resistance and back down to monthly projected range support. So at this stage, what I would be thinking about would be any, any daily clothes through this monthly projected range support would be a bearish development and I'd be short looking for a move down into the one 16s as the next downside objective would be the play there. You can see buyers attempting to defend the monthly projected range support here but like I say any clothes through there on a daily basis, you can. I would work to trade out intraday pullbacks on the hourly or the four hour timeframe, and I would target a move down into that one 16 area. The other pair GBP AUD. I'll post a link written on in a second where you can catch the recording will be update it'll be on there later today first thing tomorrow. So let's see let's take a look. So we're seeing a decent daily reversal here from support let's just see what we've got. So what I would be thinking is, if we can assume here so what this little trend line that's containing the price. So if we get a close back through the pivot back through this train line resistance, then I would see the opportunity to be long through 175 60s 175 70s, and I'd be targeting a move then up into the monthly projected range resistance 179 50s on the downside would be what I've been looking at there Chris. This stage. Any loss of 171 40s opens monthly projected range support 169 40s. And through there. It's a pretty chunky downside targets versus the swing structure here, and the swing high 192 gives a 158 13 on the downside as a major weekly dance I told also got the years three there. At the moment, we look like we're trying to put an outside reversal here. That's some momentum also trying to tip positive so keep an eye on the clothes on that one. Chris today. That's that could give an opportunity on the outside. Thank you very much Chris and Richard on let me post the link for you. One seconds. So you can check back on the YouTube channel here. Okay, guys, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap the session up here have seen some of you in the Facebook strategy group and be sure to follow along with the trade ideas on trading. As always trainers plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.