 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a delightful matchup on tap for Super Bowl 58 is the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers it is playoff Padma Holmes taking on Kyle Shanahan and the Death Star that is the Niners offense and I Couldn't be more pumped up for this game now It's a bummer for the Ravens and Lions fans because those two teams were awesome this year and Had a couple of things gone their way may have had themselves in the same spot as well But these two teams Mahomes versus Perty and all those Niners guys is going to be a lot of fun to break down for today We're gonna give my first look at this matchup Let you know what my number say about the spread in the total and let you know where I see valued Fandall sportsbook And as a teaser I do see value in both the side and total for this matchup So let's dig in and get you ready for our first look at Super Bowl 58 Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Saunders. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to give my first look at Super Bowl 58 Between the Chiefs and the Niners let you know where I see value based on the opening lines over at Fandall sports But we'll dig into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts in addition to this First look for today. We're gonna have a full week of Super Bowl coverage next week You're on the show Monday through Friday talking everything from we're gonna talk live betting. 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Hope is here for the gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 or 24 7 supporter Massachusetts or call 1-8778 open Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now to the 49ers versus the chiefs over at faddle sports book for Super Bowl 58 And this has been a fascinating game to track from a betting perspective Since things open yesterday the lookahead line was the 49ers minus three and the total was 47 that reopened during the chiefs Ravens game yesterday at the At three so it was the 49ers minus three at that time It stayed there for a bit But when it reopened during the Niners Lions game It was a two and a half then it went to two and then it went all the way down to one It did briefly get back to two and a half But it is since settled in at the Niners minus one and a half and it's held there overnight So it looks like that's where our consensus line will be to start is the 49ers minus one and a half There are some ones out there. So overall there has been a lot of interest in the chief side in this game You look here at faddle sports book. You'll see That's 70% of bets are on the chiefs and 70% of the money on the spread is on the chiefs as well So again a lot of interest in the chiefs from the betting public in this game Let's dig into what my numbers say about this one after including yesterday's games The 49ers are still by a wide margin The best team and the best offense in football again just by my personal numbers numbers are not everything They did us some very good luck yesterday Balls bouncing off guys faces stuff like that and there were some issues But the overall efficiency numbers for the Niners once again were really really good If I were to make no adjustments on the chiefs and their offense They would rank eighth in my offensive power rankings as it stands right now But obviously our eyes tell us that's not that's not good That is not an accurate representation of this offense because in part it does include week 18 When they sat a lot of guys and that's gonna get tossed out regardless. So toss out week 18 But then we've also seen this offense really click during the playoffs Patrick Mahomes is a 0.24 passing net expected points per drop back during the playoffs League average during the regular season was 0.08 and Mahomes was a 0.10 During the regular season himself as well So it's very clear the chiefs offense has figured things out as things have gone along And I do think that's a more relevant sample and as a result We need to give the chiefs offense a manual bump up to account for the fact that they're just a better team right now than they were Back in week 10, I guess they're on a bi week 10 week 11 or whatever it may be They're a better team now than they were and we have to give them a bump up I just can't justify not giving the chiefs a bump up with how they've looked through three postseason games The defense is also really good for the chiefs And I think they're actually better than the Niners might never say the chiefs as a fifth-ranked defense when you include the playoffs whereas the Niners are 10 and The Niners are especially struggling against the run a lot of times that doesn't matter because they'll get a 10-point lead And you can't run the ball at that time. So this is a defense that has struggled against the run but now you're putting them in a neutral script where a team could afford to run the ball deeper in the game and That's gonna cause more issues for them than they typically see So the chiefs offense gets a bump up and their defense is potentially at least by my numbers better than the Niners as a result I understand why the betting public is so high on the chiefs in this game and Why would you want my homes to be an underdog once again? So I get it I just can't get my numbers to align with it even with those adjustments We were discussing for that reason. I am on the 49ers for this game. It sucks to bet against Patrick Mahomes I do not enjoy that. I did that and having the Ravens money line yesterday. So It stinks when you watch Mahomes and you bet against him you ask yourself What on earth was I thinking and when you watch the Niners at times on Sunday? You ask yourself why I would bet them specifically against Mahomes as well. I just think this offense is too good for the Niners Right now the chiefs are a strong team against outside wide receivers And that's fine because you can slow Brandon I you down if you want to but the 49ers still have Diba Samuel George Kettle and Christian McCaffrey they have answers where the chiefs are strongest and They can exploit the chiefs weakness against the rush now It's not as big of a thing during the playoffs Chris Jones gonna push for all four quarters Whereas he may not during the regular season You see a different level to Chris Jones against the run then you may at other times during the year But my model is much closer to where the market open with the Niners minus three Then where it is right now with the Niners minus one and a half So as terrifying as it is to bet against Patrick Mahomes once again I think we do need to do it based on what the market is saying right now at Fan dual sports book The question is do you go with the spread or the money lines? Let's kind of talk through that decision here because the spread is minus one and a half at minus one of six at Fan dual sports book And the money line is minus 118 So the implied odds at minus one of six are fifty one point five percent versus fifty four point one percent implied at minus 118 I know I'm not asking you to do math I'll do the math for you I'm just asking it laying out the numbers here and kind of going through the thought process of do I go Spread versus money line. I actually apply the same thought process to the chief So you want to bet the chiefs? I'd go through this same kind of exercise to decide if you want to take even money on the money line or Take the plus one and a half for them, which is minus 114 right now It's the gap between the the implied numbers for the Niners spread and their money line is 2.67 percentage points So in order to take the money line You would need to say the game lands on one point where the Niners went by exactly one More than 2.67 percent of the time Overall games land on one just about four percent of the time It's a bit north of that But only about half of those times to be a win for the Niners because the chiefs can also win by one point So we're pretty close to 2.67 once you make those adjustments And that could say just lay the minus one and a half and lay the minus one to six there When I look at my model specifically what I have teams that are favored by roughly the same amount as the Niners are in my model They've actually won by exactly one point three point six percent of the time. That's an 83 team sample So it's pretty small But that methodology would indicate that it's better To take the money line than lay the points As a result that is how i'm going to play things right now and i'm going to go With the money line person i'm going to take the Niners money line at minus 118 Instead of the spread here. I am paying minus 118 instead of minus 106 to lay the one and a half, but to me That's a good trade-off given the non zero odds that the Niners do win this game by exactly one point If you agree with that and you want to lay the one and a half. That's more than defensible I'm kind of splitting hairs here between one or the other But that's where I land and i'm also not going to fight anybody who wants to say You know, i'm going to bet my home's even money to win this game And you want to bet the cheese? I can't fight back against that. I think it's a very fine Justifiable thing, but if you're going to bet the cheese, I would also go through again the same thought process of Should I take the money line to even money? Or the plus one and a half at minus 114 So for me, I'm taking the Niners money line minus 118 What could possibly go wrong betting against Patrick Mahone's in the playoffs? I feel dumb already, but I've been wrong a lot in my life and i'm very comfortable being wrong potentially once again As far as the total in this game, I do show value in the over and it's actually a pretty good amount of value With where things stand right now. I have this total of 49.97 and it's a 47 and a half right now at fan dual sports book Now 47 is a key number. So I wish I could get a push on 47 But I think we're more likely to see this market move to 48 move up than down to 47 And I've got a good amount of cushion with my model having this at 49.97 The reasoning here is that neither defense is elite. They're both very good You know, they're both top 10 again by my numbers But neither is elite and both offenses can move the football in an efficient clip And I think that they have answers to what the opposing defense does best My model's recommended more unders than over so far this year The exception has been with 49ers games But that worked again yesterday. So I understand why it's here again And it does kind of work because a hedge too where if my home's Goes for three four or 350 yards and four touchdowns. I can at least benefit from it in terms of the total so I'm not betting it because the hedge against the The the money line here, but it does help at least a bit where I can at least take some solids If my home really does shred in this game. It probably does benefit at least my over here So I think the over 47 and a half by my numbers but also by My rooting interest my very selfish rooting interest interest here Both those aligned to make the over 47 and a half a quality bet at least based on what my model is saying Between the two I feel better about the total honestly In this market again, I get to root for my home rather than against him So if you were to take just one of these bets, I would go towards the over versus The 49ers money line, but I do believe in my model. I believe in the process behind it I can back test it and see how well it's performed and no in general It's going to serve me pretty well to have faith in what the model has said So personally I am going to write it both. I'll take the niner's money line at minus 118 And we'll take the over at minus 110 It's going to be a blast to talk about this game for the next two weeks And I hope it's equally fun to watch as well But again, we're going to have a lot of shows to dissect this game a lot of shows to dissect What to expect in this one different ways to bet it again We're going to have a live betting show like not during the game But like things to look out for for live betting in general by talking to ed miller He has literally built live betting models I wrote a book a couple books about it the logic of sports betting interception We'll talk to ed next week on friday to get his thoughts on some live betting stuff for this game We'll also talk I'm going to break down correlated same game parlays a fan dual sports book Some of those that stand out to me. We'll have some other prop betting shows We'll get dr. Ed fang in here to break down his thoughts in the game all that coming up next week here on the show So a lot of time left to break down. What should be a very fun game Before we close up for today to gotta go back through recommendations last week here on the show beginning with the aforementioned dr Ed fang you can find him on twitter at the power rank and find his work at the power rank Dot com Ed's one bet for this week was for patrick mohomes to not throw a pick at plus one oh four at fan dual sports book And that did in fact wind up hitting because mohomes was clean as he always is Don't even think he had a lot of risky passes in that game So mohomes under point five interceptions good call by ed to get the win there We had jj zack recent on talking some player props for both of these games find jj on twitter at late round qb Find his work at late round dot com and the late round fantasy football podcast first one for jj was mark andrews Kind of thinking about in two ways where if andrews is limited he'll go under 35 and a half and if he's not limited We could look at small numbers So jj liked under 35 and a half and minus 110 and then over 50 at plus 178 potentially to lead him for And just to lead and receiving a plus 2800 under hit here because andrews was not involved early I thought this was actually a good example of spot to to live bet some player props Andrews didn't play in the first series first three snaps. He was not out there So you could get him a 26 and a half receiving yards on that first after that first drive I took the under there finished with 19 That's the kind of stuff you want to look for in spots like this Where a guy is banged up don't really know what his role will be if he's not playing snaps early on That's a spot where it's a good spot to grab a live under Because they do have live player props up at a lot of spots at this point Uh, jj had lemar over 10 and a half rush attempts minus 115. He finished with eight. Uh, so didn't get that one He was really effective when he did run but just didn't run it a ton. Unfortunately Isaiah pacheco over 63 and a half rushing yards minus 110 jj had that and that hit pacheco I think had about 68 or 69 or so somewhere in there jj had justice hill over 12 and a half receiving yards That one hit as well. He'll had a good amount of receiving work in this game He also did justice hill touchdown at three to one and he did not hit there In the niners versus lions game two and two for jj He had mccafrey over 35 and a half receiving yards mccafrey did hit that He also did even montgomery over five and a half receiving yards, which was a hit I think he had about 20 in that game other ones where jamir gives over 22 and a half receiving yards Which was a miss and then juan jennings long shot dud at plus 350 and jennings did not score Didn't know if debo would go at that time, but he did So overall about a break-even week for jj for the recommendations there again find jj on twitter at late row qb It check him out at the late-route fantasy football podcast One and one week for me. I had the ravens and niners parlayed to win a plus 110 That closed at minus 115 so a lot of movement in my favor, but didn't hit so who cares? I cannot feed my family on clv so And honestly clv you can't be a tad bit overrated, especially when you're betting on favorites, so Uh, it doesn't matter. It was a loss. Uh, and with the way the cheese played I deserved to lose that game So deserved to lose that one It is what it is the hit was on the 49ers and lions over 50 and a half minus 115 They were tied 24 24 and The thought did creep in my head if this game wins with a safety I would lose because it landed 50, but you know, it doesn't land a 50 very often So, uh, that was the conspiracy theory brain or the the worry the worrying part of my brain was a bit worried about that But over hit there finished with 65 total points in that game 34 31 So one and one week for me We'll see if we can get a winner to close things out here with the super bowl 58 read That's all we got here for today on covering the spread tomorrow We're talking some college basketball at john rosting having a john on the show yet this year We'll get a little catch up on how things have gone across college basketball for this year's year if you're trying to bet that We have nhl coming up this week nba We've got some epl ufc NASCAR all the show and then of course leading hard into super bowl 58 next week Make sure to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And you can also find us on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis And you can find fandal research on twitter at fandal research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you if you're betting anything across monday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some college basketball with john rosting This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network