The China Stock Market: A Dead Cat Bounce!





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Published on Apr 15, 2016

The "A" shares in China give the best picture of the weakness in China's stock market. This is a market that has crashed 62%, and is nearing the end of a bear market bounce. What are the important implications. www.dohmencapital.com

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Auto generated Transcript by YouTube
hello ladies and gentlemen this is Bert Dohemn on April fifteenth Tax day today we're going to talk briefly about china I've noticed that the analysts and the media becoming very bullish on China so let's take a look at the chart because as I said to here for the last several years three years in fact several to book the coming China crisis China is probably the place to look for when the next financial crisis starts globally China's youjizz accounted for the biggest gains in commodity demand over the last fifteen years and when China has economic problems as they are having now and then it will infect the world so let's take a look at the eight shares the shares can only be bought by Chinese in China it's deg F E S H R and here we can see it 2014 is where the index bottoms and arrange year is pleased that I identified as the start of a crisis in China short-term interest rates tripled over tonight from 7 percent to 25 percent and said now the government in China's going to throw everything they can at this problem and probably decrease in liquidity is going to do something for the stock market well even I didn't expect this kind of a stock market rally this was huge and everybody and their brother got into the stock market speculating in the markets people with no education people to even people that couldn't even read or write got into the stock market and it was an amazing speculative bubble right here in the middle of 2015 was the topic got too frothy and that's when China's big crash here was the shares were down 62% in just a few months time and here's where the government started buying stocks putting money into the governmental financial companies in telling them use these are hundreds of billions of dollars to buy stocks in order to support the market and support action did work the middle of August to November and then came the next selling we as you know supports artificial market manipulation only works for certain time and then market forces take over so now we did get down here in February of this year we made a new row new bear market and it was exactly the law that we saw in 2014 and as you know from my previous charge all to laws are always so supportive old highs always resistance in the markets now look at this rally here this is what everybody's getting so excited about this is a bear market bounce in fact I would call is almost dead cat bounce so named after dropping a dead cat from a high building and seeing how it bounces off to say they usually don't worry and this is what we've seen here lately that's what everybody's getting excited about special people who believe the official GDP China around six and a half percent which of course is taught in my opinion the most we can expect Anders is the high here the start of the gap and then we should go down again and probably to lure laws before the year is out and that of course has some very important implications for the global markets to letter which is now issued about two to four times per month closely also give you the fundamental reasons why we think china's in big trouble and all of the positive statements that you hear in the media public relations sure to get our wellington letter on regular basis

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    • MX226_79 - Corporate Success-13858
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    • Ariel Mann, BMI|Randy Miller, BMI
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    • MX226 Money and Markets
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    • AdRev for a 3rd Party (on behalf of Megatrax Music, BMI (Megatrax)); AdRev Publishing


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