 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread You're on the fan dual podcast network as it is week one of college football We're gonna get you set look at the board and let you know what stands out to us from a betting perspective as Edward Egros swings on in to talk about week one. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst here at numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank You can find him at the power rank on Twitter Ed We have week zero of college football in the books But the big news right now is Andrew Luck retiring from the NFL before the start of the 2019 season. So What are your thoughts on this? I think I think Shocking is an okay word to use here. Yeah, I mean shocking is the like the most the least word you can use here Right in some sense, you know, I mean I'm the whole world was watching Miami in Florida on Saturday night and then this news came and all of a sudden it was impossible to focus on One of the worst college football games I've ever seen but yet also one of the most exciting games Yeah all at the same time and you know kind of from a personal level, you know You feel for the guy he's been struggling both mentally and physically You know, he's he's he's a guy from Stanford and yep You know feel for him that way on the other hand I was kind of pissed at him too because I devoted an entire Episode of my preview series to Indianapolis that I had yet to put on my preview series So it was gonna come out This week and now I can't use that episode anymore. So right I'm gonna find a way to fix it It there will be there will actually be an Indianapolis episode later this week and we'll talk about what the market say to evaluate Not having Andrew luck there But yeah, it's just just an earthquake of an event Saturday night Yeah, it was huge and the total for the Colts move from nine and a half to six and a half It's back up to seven now at Fandle sports book but I think the Colts are a team that we had talked a lot about from a betting perspective because they had the quarterback and Now they don't have that and I think with Jacobi Berset. It's important that we do not View him based on what he was in 2017 because 2017 Jacobi Berset is not 2019 Jacobi Berset because of what's around him did not have Quinton Nelson They had a lot of injuries on their offensive line. They are a different team now than they were and it's important not to Necessarily bury them because Berset struggle in 2017. I think the thing that concerns me a bit more is that Berset's Not a lot of draft capital tied to him when the Patriots took him didn't have the best stats Coming out of college either so from like a prospect perspective there wasn't a lot there So if you're looking up for something on which to judge Berset, it would be that 2017 season that 2017 season Didn't look very good. I I have faith in the play callers there in Indy I think that Frank Reich is a tremendous mind and I respect him a lot And I want to make sure I'm not penalizing Berset for what happened in 2017 But it's kind of hard to I Guess say how big of a loss this is for Indy No, of course, I mean you're not gonna play replace Andrew Luck I mean Berset does have a better offensive line and the play calling as well You know Frank Reich was a was a guy who called a lot of pasts on first down in the first half Which is kind of your indicator that you know, he's following actually, I don't even want to say analytics He's following common sense that you know right throw against the stack box, right? My real concern with India has always been the defensive side of the ball Yeah, and that becomes a bigger concern when you don't have a top seven Maybe that's even be conservative on Andrew Luck, you know a top seven quarterback So and I think I talked about this in covering the one episode of covering the future I'd liked Indy. I mean, I was definitely leading Indy under nine and a half Yeah, because of that defense I just didn't see them as Super Bowl contender because of that and now now we're just You know kind of waiting for the markets to level themselves out, right? Yeah, you know I checked this morning bookmaker had India at seven and a half wins, which I Think it's high. Yeah, I think it's it's seven now again at Fandle Sports But I think that's appropriate. I don't know where I would go on that number and I probably just would not bet it Honestly, it was six and a half and I thought that number initially was yeah Was low and I'm not low I was saying if I were to bet that one I would bet the over but it would now that if it's seven I don't I don't think I really want to take advantage So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out, especially as it pertains to like in you know, like single game Stuff because yeah, we're gonna have to react and adjust our evaluation Joe Kobe were said in a hurry. We're at to deal with a lot of small samples and As analytics guy Adam sure you love small samples the best, right? Well, they go to the Los Angeles Chargers week one I mean that's right by any means an easy game. No, it's not at all And I'll talk more about NFL in covering the future Let's get some college football talk because it is week one now And we're gonna bring on Edward e-grass here in a second You can follow at Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports He hosts or will host a Dallas Cowboys podcast on vocal already has a Texas Rangers podcast there He is on Fox Sports Southwest. He is on more ways to win. He is an adjunct professor at SMU We'll talk with Edward about that because class is firing up now We're gonna preview BYU versus Utah Auburn versus Oregon Houston versus Oklahoma and also go through his favorite bets for week number one That's coming up with Edward and just one second But we did get a couple of interesting games on Saturday night starting off with Miami versus Florida You were talking about, you know watching that game with the Andrew Luck news I was watching you at the fan dual world fantasy baseball championship and it was 125 people in a room who had $500,000 potentially that they could have won but everyone was fixated on Miami versus Florida and like I couldn't even do like the Award ceremony because like I knew no one had listened to me So I like sit off to the side wait for the game to end because it was like you said it was a bad game But it was also a good game. It was weird Yeah, I mean it was incredibly sloppy in terms of tackling in terms of turnovers penalties penalties. I mean like Stuff that happened towards the end Yeah, I mean my biggest takeaway honestly I mean Miami's got a great defense and you just had question marks about the quarterback position I thought Jared Williams was incredibly accurate. Yeah on almost all of his balls even the incompletions were kind of on the money You know late late Attempt for touchdown that that they could have gone up and his receiver couldn't pull it in But I mean that was the only place that he could have put that ball to give his receiver a chance So yeah, definitely hi on Miami this year, you know, obviously small sample size one game I'm not ready to go out and bet Miami side right next week just yet But definitely a program to look for and like I'm actually high on this Florida program I think Dan Mullen was a miracle worker last year Didn't really show kind of top 10 form this past weekend, but a lot of that was sloppy So yeah, I would suspect that they'll get it together and Florida certainly has the talent to to do a lot of things And it was interesting because Miami benefited from some fumble lock in that game But I still thought that like they impressed me even when you account for that Like even when you account for the luck factors involved, I still thought that they played a good game So I agree. I thought it was encouraging for them going forward and I'm interested to see what they can do We had talked about Cole McDonald on Thursday's podcast dude got benched, which was fun But you know, I it was a fun way to like cleanse the football palette You know, you have a defensive slash penalty heavy game and then go just inject Hawaii football directly in your veins And like it was it was a really fun day And I hope that it's a preview of what we get in the actual week one coming up here in not too long We're gonna break that down with Edward e-gross in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bed today If you lose Fandall give you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler we're gonna bring Edward e-gross in right now to talk a little college football for week one and get you set for the fun Action one game Thursday one Saturday and one Sunday. We're breaking down follow Edward e-gross on Twitter at Ed with Sports Covering the present Let's welcome Edward e-gross into covering the spread and Edward We have you on video for today and looking pretty snazzy. What's the occasion for the full suit here? Well, it's first day of classes in SMU and I am attempting to impress And so I've got my sort of Brian Williams striped tie and a nice suit from a an expensive clothier And so we'll see how this turns out and you said you're teaching two classes a semester, correct? That's right. I'm teaching advanced public relations in sport and I'm teaching the sports and media analytics to sort of the afternoon group and That is the first time that class is being launched at SMU. So I'm really excited about that and PR I'm excited about as well. I mean there are a lot of things that I think can be some practical information and Ways to sort of improve writing techniques keeping audiences in mind things like that And so both classes. I'm super excited about but even like PR like there there can be analytics and like data-driven stuff involved with PR and I think that that makes Someone in PR better at their job if they know how to use analytics. So clearly there is some overlap there for you Absolutely, and especially when it comes to social media analytics You want to have a good idea of not just what you need to say But when you need to say it and so different social media Have different times where you can get your peak engagement levels And so if you're posting something on Facebook You want it to look a certain way feel a certain way and find the right time to post something positive or negative I know for years. We've talked about the Friday news dump where if you have something negative you posted at 459 On a Friday afternoon. So you get the fewest number of eyeballs Same idea here, but perhaps on the other end of the spectrum where you want to tweet something positive at just the right time To get maximum engagement. So these are some of the ideas that we're gonna go over. Exactly. So a lot of application there It's very interesting. Yeah, so we're glad to have you here despite the class is starting So thank you for taking time at your busy schedule to talk week one of college football Which is actually here already. How insane is that? Oh, it's wonderful time One of the best times of the year right here Absolutely, so let's start things off here broad Edward and talk about General betting strategies for you when it comes to college football because I think that there are a lot of different ways to play it Some people have different conferences. They feel more comfortable with like I watch a lot of big 10 football So I'm gonna feel more comfortable analyzing big 10 football. What about for you personally, you know, your personal process Or is there a conference you feel you know more about any do you feel more comfortable betting on those teams? Or do you feel like your eyes may lead you astray sometimes, which is also possible Absolutely. Well, I think and this is perhaps more egregiously done in college basketball But I think the smaller conferences in college football are likelier to have more inefficient lines And so one of the things that I try and do is look at those non-power five conferences and see If there's a team that is getting largely underrated, perhaps they're in a small market or perhaps they have You know a sturdier team built. It's just you don't know about it Maybe an up-and-coming coach, uh, who you know, they're either too young to get noticed Or maybe they fell on some bad times at a larger program. They still do know how to coach I'm always looking for those advantages in the smaller places The american may sort of be in that middle ground between power five and smaller conferences But because smu is in it and ucf is in it. I do tend to look at the american A little bit more closely than I do other conferences and Certainly knowledge helps. So just having a knowledge base of what's going on with each program That's absolutely huge. I also keep up with the big 12 a lot just because I'm in texas and I feel like They're just certain tiny advantages that I pick up on here and there that even people within the region don't quite know So that's that's tended to be my approach Excellent. Well everd, um, what what other edges would you look forward to spot inefficient lines? I mean, perhaps like weather or offensive line health Uh, maybe some things that specific to the big 12 that you just talked about Well, if there's any little bit of information that I can glean certainly that helps the cause so the Model that my buddy charles and I built over the last few years to predict college football games We look at a lot of in season data and all of that is readily available to anybody So there's not necessarily anything That's different as far as that approach is concerned But I am a firm believer in recruiting rankings Because these are college kids and college kids can be developed And so what I look for is the raw talent that is coming into a program I like 247 composite scores We charles and I concluded that the second year Of a recruiting class and the third year of a recruiting class sophomores and juniors largely or redshirt freshman redshirt sophomores They tend to be the most significant classes Which is one of the reasons why I had Miami covering saturday night the talent by recruiting classes the significant ones Were just a lot better than florida's and I think it was sloppy play and inexperience of the key positions That killed the you in terms of winning the overall football game But I think because of those classes. I think miami is going to have a great year And so recruiting classes the the raw talent coming in. I think it's huge. Oh, that's yeah That's really interesting. Um, yeah, I think miami is going to have a great year too I I love the accuracy that we saw from jaren williams the quarterback And we know they can play some some defense ever I didn't want to ask you you mentioned you got a college football model Can you just kind of give us the basics of what goes in it besides the recruiting rankings and just kind of how you go about that Absolutely. So, uh, it's mostly an in season, uh model And so the first week is a little bit tricky just because you're dealing with last year's stuff largely and so A lot of things change from year to year and I think a lot of teams Can come out a lot rustier and so week one is always the worst for me But it does get better as as the season goes along and a lot of it is basic stuff You're running efficiency. You're passing efficiency your defensive efficiency schedule certainly matters a good bit Who are you playing? How good are the teams you're playing? You sort of put that all into one big crock pot and see what boils Interesting and it's good to account for all those things because obviously like we have a broad perception of how good teams are but You know fully accounting for that from a an actual like model perspective is definitely going to help you out for sure So let's dive in here to week number one specifically and we're going to take one game from each of the big days Four week one starting off on thursday night with the holy war and the 100th total meeting between utah And by you as of right now utah favorite by five and a half at vandal sports book that has shifted It was uh five when we took these lines on friday So a little bit of stuff shifting towards utah tyler huntley and zack moss Bowled back to this utah team and last year When these two teams played and by you had 20 point lead at one point Those guys weren't there and I think that having the back is is a big thing here So how much does getting those two back edward? What does that mean for this utah offense? Well, I think there's sort of a misnomer when it comes to college football that your second string is Significantly worse than your first string. I mean you can still have a minus b plus talent coming on in relief effort And to me, I think that's what happened with utah You think about it. They were still scoring 35 to 40 points for most of the back half of the season And I don't know if you can expect 45 to 50 just because huntley and moss are back It might be a little bit more reliable and i'm not saying they're worse or even they are very much better players But I don't necessarily know how much more you can expect out of them. I think something similar Maybe something more consistent is acceptable. Um, but I I still think utah is going to be consistently solid regardless of who's there Interesting and uh, we've had some changes with byu as well last year because zack wilson You know a young guy comes in the starting lineup midway through last year And it did seem to bring them to life his numbers last year pretty good Let's say that wilson carries that into 2019 and that's an assumption and assumptions can do some bad things to us But but what's the upside here if that does wind up happening for this byu team? boy, it's interesting because uh And I believe I read it where byu is the only team with four straight power five opponents to start the season I mean just about everybody has a cupcake to start the year byu doesn't have any This is the price to pay to be independent that you kind of schedule these teams and sort of figure it out Um, I know defense is a lot less stable. Uh than offense from year to year I don't see uh why you can expect a d with that incredible secondary to be reliable. Um, so You know, it's interesting. I mean, I think the overall talent with byu, you know, maybe Significantly worse. And so I I'm not sure what, you know, you can expect as far as you know What the byu will come out of the gate? Interesting. Yeah, that's interesting Edward, let's move on to uh, saturday organ and auburn. Uh, auburn is a three and a half point favorite The total is about 55 right now. Uh, two very interesting teams. Uh, auburn has a great defense, but uh, they're starting a freshman at quarterback Oregon comes in with a huge high hopes this year ranked 11th in the preseason ap poll Uh, what are you thinking about in this game? I'm still taking a flyer here. Bo nicks, number one rated dual quarterback in the country 2019 He's being wheeled out holding news conferences Just like he's a veteran quarterback a lot of college programs don't do that to their true freshmen And so I feel like already they've got a lot of faith in him They love them certainly within the program those i've spoken with Uh, guzmals on loves to run the football make it enough tempo game nicks can certainly accomplish that joey gatewood was the wrong runner up And I know this would be in poor form. But the reason why I think you can still Uh pay attention to this game from a gambling perspective is It's not like you have to play a quarterback the whole game A coach is allowed to switch a quarterback if things go south very quickly Again, I know it's poor form to do that But you are allowed to if you're a head coach Yeah, there may be some issues with that down the road But if if auburn does want to make the college football playoff and you know Their ranking certainly suggests that they're off to a good start as far as that's concerned Then yeah, you got to worry about things later in the year But if you need to switch to quarterbacks switch the quarterback and go back to bo nicks later True freshmen, you know, you should be able to make this a teaching moment Absolutely And I think this game is an interesting one from a betting perspective too Because you look at vandal sportsbook right now and 53 percent of the bets and 60 percent of the money are on auburn And that's not a big spread like that's that's pretty tight You know, we got money coming in on both sides bets coming in on both sides The total is dipped to 55 and a half auburn at three and a half point favor right now edward You know, what do you see in this game? Are you thinking about backing auburn with bo nicks? You know knowing that they do have that floor in case things do go totally awry if nicks is terrible So here's the way that I see it and this is a small sample size alert here I'm certainly not capable of running with this idea but When I looked at the big neutral site games for auburn under gust malzahn They have been low scoring and I don't know if it takes time to install a rather complex up tempo offense But it's one of the reasons why I am far more comfortable taking the under Than doing anything else in this game. And yeah, I know oregan's got a great offense. No doubt about it, but These games tend to be low scoring and oftentimes pack 12 offenses are not used to facing sec defenses Especially if they need some time to get to gel Especially if they've got, you know Essentially a road trip for oregan I can recall back in 2015. I believe for the national championship in arlington between oregon and ohio state And I would say it was probably 70 percent ohio state and 30 percent oregon So, you know, this may be a slight home field advantage for auburn In a low scoring game, uh, I would edge the tigers, but I think the under is uh, far more comfortable for me Interesting. Yeah, that's yeah. No, that's super interesting I mean, I have full belief in auburn's defense and what kevin seals don't on that side of the ball over the last couple years And oregan's defense should be good. I mean, they did lose coordinator jim levit But a lot of talent coming back. Uh big time freshman and tibido coming in, uh, potentially rush the pastor. So I think that's I think that's interesting as well. Um, yeah, let's move on to sunday. Uh We got hueson versus oklahoma oklahoma is a 24 and a half point favorite and, uh, the insane almost auto bet under total of 82 and a half We got a lot of explosive offenses here link and riley danahorgeson taken over at hueson Is this total too high, edward? Boy, it's it's interesting because I I Still think this oklahoma offense can go under jalen herds Maybe he's not baker mayfield or kyla murray, but I still think Despite who they lost in the offensive line that this oklahoma offense can still Score, you know a good bit of points. I think they're just that well coach Uh, houston's problem last year was the defense suffered a quintillion injuries by my math Derek king also went down their their hot shot quarterback But the start they had with the full complement of players was absolutely ridiculous They were reliably scoring more than 40 points a game averaging closer to 50 points a game Now you add danaholgerson who is a bit of a quarterback whisper A healthy king should hang 40 maybe 45 on oklahoma worst case scenario Which means oklahoma can probably score 43 And all of a sudden you're at the over right there and I know that is an astronomical over under but The over's still tempting to me I don't blame you and actually the over has gone up. It was 82 and a half It actually opened to 80 And it's already up to 83 now So things have been moving pretty steadily in the upward direction I don't think that's honestly that egregious because like it's two really good teams and Something that makes me nervous embedding high totals when there is a large spread Is that if a team falls behind they are forced into more mistakes, you know negative game script can be a detriment But dirot king has shown in the past. He is a very efficient quarterback So with this line now oklahoma minus 23 Do you see dirot king being efficient enough to keep pace with that jaylin hurts and rink link and riley offense? No doubt in my mind. Derek king can keep up with this oklahoma offense. Like I mentioned before You know, he did some wonderful things last year and now the coaching by all accounts will get better He has another year under his belt All the signs are pointing upward in terms of being able to to score consistently 40 to 45 And if it goes even higher than that, well, I mean we're in this era of football now where teams do score 50 on a regular basis And oklahoma does that in the big 12 houston does that in the american And I wouldn't be surprised if we see a defensive optional kind of contest Yeah, absolutely. And I would be totally in favor of watching that because I just won't launch dirot king and play football So I am uh fully in favor of this happening. It sounds like you're kind of into the over and kind of into houston Do you like both? Are you leaning one way or another or not quite confident enough to bet either? Where do you sit right now on those two numbers? I am not ready to say houston is going to win outright Okay, I mean but I mean if this is a one possession game, I wouldn't be surprised at all Okay, I'm just you know, jim you and I are part of the derrick king fan club I think we we're not the only ones, but I think that we're probably the loudest members. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, okay I'll go that. Yeah, we're definitely the most boisterous Uh, I mean, they're the expected value in terms of heisman picks. I mean, it's it's just delicious As far as what derrick king is capable of I would not be surprised as a one possession game. I still think Oklahoma can win it But I mean at if you're talking three possessions or two possessions I mean that can certainly happen. No doubt in my mind and yeah Turnovers are a little bit unpredictable, but they can go the other way too And if houston has a large turnover margin here, then yeah, they can win this football game All right, so the money line just you know, you throw this out. We have not prepared you for this But the money line in this game just because we're going to go all in on derrick king here Is houston plus nine two five Any interest at that number because that's a that's a pretty good number. I mean number fires Number fires algorithms do not like that number because I looked They do not like houston even at that number for the money line, but I'm interested. I'll put it that way. What about you? I I will keep an eye on it. Okay. Okay. I I will take that as a totally legit answer Any any other thoughts from you add on this? Houston, oklahoma game add you any thoughts on your side? Yeah, I mean I mean, what is oklahoma doing on the defensive side of the ball? I mean, they were a hundredth in my past defensive rankings last year. That's adjusting for strength of schedule and pace Okay, so that's not just because they gave up a ton of yards. That's yards per attempts I lost trade norwood probably their most experienced guy in the secondary. So You know, they brought in alex grinch who did wonders at washington state a couple years ago But also heralded in a precipitous drop in ohio states defense last year. So just so many questions on sunday night and Yeah, I don't know. I guess i'm excited to join the dear Fan club on sunday night as well. I will tweet you guys. Uh, good To jump one of us one of us. Yes After a seven touchdown Six rushing touchdown and first passing touchdown, then we will fully expect to tweet at that point. All right So, uh edward, we got you down for potentially the over in this game Maybe some interest monitoring the money line You mentioned betting the under for oregon auburn anything you want to mention from utah b y u With the total there 47 and a half and utah might as five and a half We move on to your favorite bets overall this weekend Well, uh in terms of the 47 and a half, uh, utah might get that by itself Okay, so I I love the way over there. Uh, I think utah can cover, uh, five and a half I I don't think the half point really swayed me too much and that's not necessarily, uh, because I think lowly b y u I think b y u can go bowling this year. Um, I just think that it's probably going to be a higher scoring game and Uh, utah could very well go off. They have the potential for that Right, exactly and there they have high hopes for this year. Uh, so certainly can't fall to there Any other bets you want to point out across week one anything you see that you like a lot? For this first full week of college football action Well, um, let me first start by saying, uh, that I, uh, One of the greatest joys of this off season has been, uh, reading ed fang's predictions And knowing that he and I completely agree on the texas long That that you're still in texas You might want to take a like you're still in texas. You might want to tread lightly here Uh, I will just I will point that out that you are saying this despite living in texas still Yeah, oh, no, I mean the door is locked at my office right now, right? There are, you know torches and uh things like that, uh, just outside, uh, but I mean, let's let's start there I mean, you know, louisiana tech and sundance really team i'm high on but I mean I think they can cover in this situation and follow that up with an lsu game and I really like the tigers Uh, I mean texas, you know under tom herman and you know a few years before that they've gotten off to rust starts And so, uh, I think tech can cover that one. So I mean, that's the first one that I noticed Um, I gotta mention my smu mustangs. Um, I I know ed and I sort of disagree on that overall outcome But I think smu is capable of an eight and four nine and three season So, uh, I think they you know, not only uh cover against arkansas steak I think they can win that outright and the last one, uh, ucla since and adi I think the bruins can win that game outright with incredible experience one of the more experienced teams in college football And chip kelly is such an unusual cat Uh, that I think he needs some time to install what he wants and they're also really analytically sound as a program That is a team that's uh, uh and a program rather that's that's certainly going in the right direction in terms of incorporating Doing things more efficiently. Uh, so I think ucla wins that one outright if we talk about analytics from like a rushing versus passing perspective, but they use analytics for diets, uh for sleep Like it it goes a lot further than the depth level perception of what we talk about when we normally talk about analytics And I think that you know, especially on the college level that can make a major difference Now ucla is recruiting because you were talking about how you do value recruiting It's been interesting. I think I would say uh under chip kelly. Uh, so what's what are your overall thoughts on ucla? beyond just week one Well beyond just week one, I think uh There are a lot of challengers in the pack 12 and so I don't necessarily think that ucla is gonna You know come out of nowhere and win the entire conference I don't want to go that far But I just think about it from a practical standpoint if you are doing things So unusually and more importantly so differently Uh than under jim mora and under the past regime at ucla. I look at it and go that's gonna take time to develop And we've seen over the years a lot of great Head coaches have miserable first years Nick saban went to the independence bowl his first year at alabam Uh, that tells you everything you need to know about the challenges at a first year head coach Regardless of how great he is uh may have some problems. Uh getting a program off the ground We know what chip kelly has done at oregon. We know what he's capable of And he did some good things with the eagles and so I I have no reason to believe that ucla is going to struggle forever And I think the change starts now All right, that is edward egros again Find him on twitter at edward sports before we release edward ed anything else you want to add in here before we let him Go off into the wild and off into the wilds of texas With potentially people beating down his door here Yeah, i'm just wondering if you know he's going to have chip chip kelly You know talk to his class and his sports analytics because I want to definitely want to jump in on the feed there See what he's doing with diet and how much he's running guys the the day before games Oh, no doubt if I can just uh get a plane ticket flying in from la, uh, we're all set to go I mean, he's not busy this fall or anything, right? You know, oh, no no no chip kelly No, I mean he he takes these things very casually When I think laid back, I think chip kelly absolutely that is edward egros again He's an adjunct professor at smu. You can also find his podcast on is the cowboys podcast launch yet over on vocal Not yet, uh, but it will start next week in all likelihood Did the practice run went really well last week? And so uh, you know got some things to tweak it it is high school football time in texas and so uh This week is kind of devoted to that but next week once we get close to the nfl season kicking off Oh, you better believe we got some cowboys analytics for you just in time for week one You'll find ed over or edward over on vocal. He's got a rangers podcast there as well He could find my fox sports out west still more ways to win uh on tv g So you can find edward wherever you got a tv edward. Thank you so much and good luck with your bets in week one And good luck with classes as well Thank you. I appreciate that uh, no sleep for the weary no rest for the Covering the future Want to give a big thank you once again to edward e-gross for swinging by and breaking down week one of college football And I don't think it's the most exciting slate ed But I think it will be an impactful one and we can we can definitely influence our views on a lot of teams And one of the teams we talked about there was ucla and you also want to talk about ucla for covering the future And kind of their outlook here against Cincinnati. So what do you see with that specific game between those two teams? Yeah, I mean, I I mean, let's just cut the chase. I like ucla plus three a lot And I think you got to look at the situation of why Cincinnati a team out of the american is is actually favored against ucla a team out of a a power five pack 12 conference ucla had a really rough year in under chip kelly last year A lot of things went wrong, but in particular they battled a lot of quarterback injuries During thompson robinson played half the year kind of got hurt Uh wilmspade played the rest of the year. He's gone now And i'm not saying that I actually love chip kelly at ucla I've always kind of had my question marks about the marriage. I didn't really think it was much of a home run hire as kind of everyone Thought it was and I don't think that necessarily reflects on chip kelly We talked a little bit about his innovation and and how he's a guy that's willing to think differently I think it's more uh the state of the ucla program But even with even with my reservations about the program in general, I do think they should be better in 2019 uh 19 returning starters Um, I dorian thompson robinson. I think just got named the starter uh this week Um, and he was good. I think you should get better last year. Now. Let's go to cincinati There was really confusing to me last year because they started a freshman at quarterback lost one of their best players on the defensive line to an injury for the entire season Yet go 11 and two with a ball win in the second year under luke fickle and uh a lot of stuff had to go right for that to happen And you know, I kind of looked through it for for cincinati and I kind of went through my some of my typical Oh, do they want a bunch of one score games? Well, not really Um, but you gotta gotta dig dig deeper for the things that went right for them last year So when I look at their offense, they were 90th in terms of adjusted yards per attempt and that's not good But their freshman quarterback ridder was 33 of 52 on third and long last year Averaging almost 11 yards every time he slung the ball And so that if you're going to be that clutch that that's how you you kind of have a good season Um, they actually made a 15 point jump in my in my ratings when I look at them from 2017 to 2018 Um, I think part of that was just good fortune And my Russian model certainly is not buying into a team after just having one good year So they come in 54th there, which is underneath UCLA And even when I look at my market model, which takes market win totals and backs out a rating for 130 teams Since he's behind UCLA. So since he's at 43rd, UCLA is at 39th Which suggests that three points is just too much at home But really the big thing is something that Edward Egras started to talk about. It's just the talent differential I mean ucl is a pack a pack 12 team Um, they're gonna have better athletes than a program like Cincinnati Coming out of the american. I like UCLA plus three. Um, you're actually even getting some reduced juice at fan Fandal right now at plus 105 So that's my cover in the future Interesting and uh, were there any other bets you wanted to focus on from the games talk about Edward? So we got, you know, his thoughts on them Any ones that you see as being particularly advantageous the thing for me I would lean toward I still like Houston plus 23. I know that line has shifted Uh, it's 23 and it was 26 at one point I still like that number as a hopeless deer or a deer king fan Uh, and I think I would also be okay to bet auburn minus three and a half Those are the two that stand out most of me. What about for you anything there? Yeah, I mean, you know, usually in the preseason, um I'm definitely betting kind of my takes on teams in general and I think organs overrated So like I've definitely leaned towards the Auburn side there. Um, and just another comment I mean, I actually I haven't run some some kind of mess. I call messy, uh, total numbers But but I will have my site this week, but I wanted to comment on that 83 Yeah number for uh for Houston in Oklahoma and like five years ago legitimately that was an auto bet under Right, but then the big 12 happened And it's just it just goes to show you like yeah You can actually legitimately lean the over in these things when like, you know, the oklahoma is get together with the texas text and and obviously houston, um You know a team that's explosive on offense and you know might struggle a bunch on on the defense side of the ball this year so college football changes you got to change with it and um You know things that looked silly five years ago Can be completely normal in in 2019. It is a dynamic sports. Uh, that it that much is abundantly obvious at this point I'm gonna do a little bit nfl here just because I want to be newsworthy And react to lines as they are At least in my eyes still inefficient And I think that's kind of what we're getting here in the afc because of a ripple effect Due to the andrew luck news and we did see the colts move quite a bit They are now 60 to 1 to win the super bowl. Uh, I found a sports book We talked about their wind total being at 7 now, but I think the bigger ripple effect to me Is at the top end here because I viewed the colts as being a Fringe top tier team. I did not put them in the top tier in the afc I had the patriots and the chiefs as being you know in the top tier and then You know the colts and chargers kind of like fringe maybe the browns too I wouldn't put the browns there, but like I could see the argument for them They were all like fringe top tier teams But you're taking a team Out of that tier now because you don't have andrew luck and Maybe you do like the colts over seven wins But I don't think anyone's going to put jacobi resets and that colts team In that upper tier anymore, which is a pretty big benefit to the patriots and the chiefs They didn't shift much the odds not on those two teams The paths are still seven to one if handle sports book and the chiefs are eight to one I agree with what whalecapper said with us when we were talking about the patriots and super bowl futures earlier on where If you want to bet the paths Wait until the inevitable in season panics that's in because they I think they under they Intentionally undervalue the regular season and I don't blame them. I get it because it does not matter You don't win super bowl in september. So if you want to bet the paths, I'd probably hold off But I think the chiefs are interesting. They are plus 650 at william hill right now They are plus 800 at vandal sports book. So that's not a bad price You can find those numbers over at odds fire up on number fire com They go to jackson villain week one and then to oakland and Those are two road games, but and I don't hate jacksonville, but they're both very winnable games Their first test is against baltimore, but that game is at home Then they're at detroit before hosting jacobia presets and indy in week five So they do open with three or four games in the road and that could present a stumbling block and maybe say Hey, why would I bet them now when I could wait until they're two and two after four weeks? But the problem is that none of those road games are against teams ranked in the top 20 in number fires power rankings That home game against the ravens is their lone game Against a team inside the top 20 in those rankings until they face houston at home in week six So they could get off to a hot start this year as they did last year and then be set up with a a back-end schedule That's very much President narrowhead so The cheese benefited a lot from this andrew luck news both in their schedule because they do face the cults and It may play off perspective because it's one fewer True powerhouse to go through and I think that they might have much shorter odds Once october rolls around so at eight to one. I think the chiefs are advantageous I do like the patriots, but I would want to wait to get in on them until later on in the season So to me right now, I think that both the chiefs and the patriots are Worth betting, but I'd wait to do so with the patriots until later on And you talked before about how you're skeptical of this chief's offense and how they are due for offensive regression How does the luck news impact the way you view this team? Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm skeptical about the offense. I wouldn't say they're going to oppress from They will no longer be historically great offensively. That's not outrageous to say Yeah, that's not outrageous to say you have to expect regression from what they do Yeah, you know, I mean, I still have some questions about uh, Kansas City chief's defense I need to see them play a little bit before I mean just so many wholesale changes in terms of getting rid of veterans and and bring bringing in frank clark and um But uh, you know, I I I you have to acknowledge the chiefs as a Super Bowl contender There's no doubt about it agree with a lot of things that you said, um You know one thing that you know, New England's win total is a little bit higher Is at 11 than Kansas City 10 and a half And but when I when I kind of calculate and back out which team is actually better based on that win total Kansas City comes out ahead and that's basically because New England has this insane ASCE schedule with with three teams that No one's really high on in jets and Buffalo and and well, Miami Is by far the worst team in terms of when I look at win totals and back out, you know, how good they're supposed to be so um, yeah, I mean, I agree with what you said it I guess if you just are looking at the markets They're higher on Kansas City right now than even New England. They would favor Kansas City on a neutral site Interesting, which is intriguing given the Super Bowl odds, but also it makes sense given I guess the concern around Andy Reid as a playoff coach. I don't know if that narrative is still Something that exists or I mean, I just think it's a schedule thing, right? Yeah, you know, they they got to play the Chargers twice and and and it's just it's just a harder road than Then what New England has in that division? Yeah, I think that it just it makes sense to be reactive to the luck news But it's also important to note that luck news does not just pertain to the colds It has a ripple effect throughout the entire league So I think the cheese right now at eight to one are a team that would benefit most right now and the patriots If you see that number start to slip in season from seven to one I think that's when we reevaluate and start to dive in on them And potentially just have tickets on bull because why not? All right, Ed Uh, before we close up here for this podcast a quick scheduling announcement We are back on thursday this week We're going to talk some nfl to get set for that as well because we want to record the college football podcast Earlier in the week since we did have a thursday game within there But then starting next week We're going to go to a regular schedule of college football preview on wednesday nfl preview on friday to get you set for week number one before we talk again on thursday Ed anything big happening for you anymore? Podcasts over at the football analytics show. Yeah, absolutely. I mean i'm continuing the preview series Number six drop this morning. Seattle seahawks and The importance of rushing in the nfl I I hate to kind of pick favorites among my episodes Among the series is kind of like picking your favorite child, right? But I kind of like this one the most So, uh, we'd love to know what you think about it too as well jim and then and then over on this and then, uh, over on the site tomorrow I'm in my email newsletter. I'm actually going to uh Give my nfl market rankings based on wind totals And it was going to be today, but the markets were jumping around so much with this indy Stuff that I just want to wait for it to settle another day They will actually be based on fan duals numbers because I actually found those converged There there were some good versions things that makes me believe that those numbers were have a little more logic behind them And some of the other sports books out there. Yeah And so you'll actually legitimately be able to say well, andrew luck is worth x number of points in a game on a point spread So that's what i'm doing over on my email list. Uh, that should drop tomorrow But actually the those numbers will be there whenever you sign up For my email newsletter you can do that for that That newsletter at the power rank dot com and you can also find ed on twitter at the power rank Uh, so make sure you do that and also subscribe rate and review covering the spread you can find that on apple podcasts Spotify stitch or wherever you get your podcast. It is available to you also on google play now and ratings and reviews are super helpful So those of you who have left them already Thank you to do that for you for that and thank you to those of you who will do so in the future as well If you have questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin thea ball for coordinating not one not two But three video feeds for today when edward was on with us Thank you cal for doing everything that you do in the magic behind the keys over there And thank you to everyone who tuned in for today to check out this episode of covering the spread Getting you said for week one of college football back at you on thursday to talk more nfl We'll see you to that this has been covering the spread here on the fan dual podcast network