 the greatest markets in the world. You can't go up every single day. So you'll have days of the market goes up three, four times in the fifth day, it'll go down 200. I promise you it's not a reverse of the time. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap-up show, hope everybody is doing well. It was a little bit of an erratic week for me as far as recording the videos. My son was in the middle of his high school. He's entering as a freshman, so he's playing on the Summer League varsity slash JV team. So it's been a crazy schedule. So he's finally done with that schedule. So going back to recording the video will be on a nightly basis. Obviously Thursday night's my usual night off, but since I've only recorded, I think once or twice this weekend this week, kind of good to be back with you guys. So let's talk about the market. Most important thing is kind of the continuation that we talked about a couple of days ago. The big, big number that we talked about on the Qs in absolute nauseam if you've been watching this broadcast was at 296.75 area. We got above and again, just to make it very, very clean to especially the new chartists in the crowd who are joining us. Again, the 50 day moving average represents, it's not as, obviously it's not as strong as the 200. The 200 is the mega, right? That's the mother's arms. She's gonna hug you. That's your warm sweater. Your favorite pair of slippers. But the 50 day moving average is the area of the market that general strength or weakness lies. So you can see here, as soon as we broke the 50 day moving average, it started a pretty, pretty ugly, pretty much six, seventh month decline. Obviously a big deal. And as soon as we reclaimed the 50 day moving average two days ago, that was what we talked about risk on, right? This is where if you are starting a book or started a book that 296.75 was a very, very big area. We talked about a couple of nights ago. It reclaimed every level. Now we have a beeline coming to this 313 level. A lot of stocks broke out. Amazon, it's a whole list, right? Anything that resembles the QQQ is part of the QQQ or even outside adjacent to the QQQ of technology. Everything is absolutely rally. Somebody asked me to, hey Dan, this is before the opens, you go say, hey Dan, don't you think the market's up too much? The market's day two after we reclaimed the 50 day moving average. We sold off for seven months. No, no, absolutely not. Is the market gonna go straight up? Of course not. It's the same way during this bear cycle we had majority of the moves back to the downside. But yeah, we had some upward bias as well. But the key common denominator was we continued to stay below the 50 day moving average. So no, of course we're not over boy. There's some certain stocks that might have had really big runs in the last few days, right? So Amazon broke out at 16, it's at 25. Yeah, that one's a little overextended. When you look for example, a name like a NVIDIA, right? That broke out about this whole channel. Yeah, NVIDIA sure went from 155 to 181. Yeah, of course those stocks are overextended. But when you look at the predominant force of the market, majority of stocks are just slowly but surely coming out of supply. So yeah, you might have certain stocks that had really, really big runs that need a rest. Yeah, of course, they're not gonna chase them, right? You're not gonna, if Amazon broke out at 116, 117, why would you be buying the stock at 125? Yeah, of course you need a healthy pullback. So I think the index part of this conversation is going to be a little bit of a relevant. For example, Snapchat came out with earnings, not good, right? Not pretty earnings, you got a 25% haircut after the close. It looks like they're not giving forward guidance and the moral of the story is they're taking down pretty much everything, anything internet related. So they're taking down Google. I mean, everything's pretty much getting taken down. Google still hasn't readjusted from, oh here's Google anyway, here's Google, taking down Google, taking down Metta, AKA Facebook, right? Everything in between, right? A lot of these stocks are getting hit, but the most important part is again, this is what you have to focus on, not the day to day. The most important thing you have to focus on is how long can we build, right? The longer we build and continue to build above the 296.75 area, the higher probability we're gonna continue to go higher, even though you'll have some days. And again, any day of the week, even the greatest markets in the world, you can't go up every single day. So you'll have days when the market goes up three, four times in the fifth day, it'll go down 200. I promise you it's not a reversal. That's not the top, it's just the market is tired, right? And again, if you're concentrating on names, again, like we've been saying for years, don't concentrate on the names like Amazon, 125. It broke out 10 points ago, two days ago, right? NVIDIA 160, it went to 80, right? Went to 82, forget about those names. They need a little bit of a pullback. Obviously, they have earnings as well. Concentrate on names, again, they're just coming out the bottom. Again, like we say this all the time, and I use this analogy many, many times, I would rather be wrong and jump out of the first floor than jump out of the 10th floor. So again, Amazon, great, but this pivot was here. It's not up here. And the higher it goes from way from the pivot, the higher probability it could pull in. You want names that are coming off the bottom, right? Like a Shopify, right? Like a Shopify coming off the bottom. Like an AI coming off the bottom. Names like Dash haven't confirmed yet, but they're coming off the bottom. So at least if you're wrong, right? A stock like TTD that I really like tomorrow if it shakes off some after hours weakness, right? It's coming out of the bottom. It's coming out of the 50-day moving average. So it's gotten rejected back-to-back days in the same area. So if you know for tomorrow, it gets rejected again at the same area. Why would you sit there down two, three, four, five dollars in the trade, just get out of the position? So that's where kind of where we are right now. Where, you know, yes, some of the names are going to be stretched out, but that's a good thing. They were sold off for six, seven months. They rallied. They showed their conviction. They showed the technical analysis work. They showed that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. That's the whole point of everything that we do. And the most important part is those stocks right now, leave them alone, right? We want the ones off the bottom. Like look at a chart like CRM, right? Look at CRM. CRM is attempting to come out of this channel here. Even Microsoft, look at Microsoft, right? Microsoft has been rejected back to back, three days in a row, well, actually four times off the same channel. If this thing's, you know, if all these stocks wipe out the Snapchat earnings and they start reclaiming this level, you know, maybe Microsoft has a run ahead of next week's earnings as well. I mean, look at us, you know, look at a stock, for example, like Google, look at Google. Again, if they can shake off the Snapchat weakness for today, I mean, look at the chart. This thing can start confirming supply. Who knows? Maybe this thing has a run ahead of next week's earnings as well. So again, don't confuse, and we said this in the last video, don't confuse weakness in the morning for that's it. It's a top. You know, look, the whole social media thing is out of its mind. It's out of control. When the market first lost the 50 day moving average, right? The first time it lost the 50 day moving average and it was building a base below the 50 day moving average, people are screaming buy the dip, buy the dip, the stocks are oversold. My response was, how can they be, how can they be oversold? We're rallying for seven years, we're down for three days. How could it be oversold? Yada, yada, yada, seven months later, the Q's lost a ton of its value. And that's the same thing on the upside now, right? We were down for seven months in a row. How can we possibly be oversold? Again, certain stocks could be over, excuse me, overbought. Certain stocks can be overbought, but how can the rest of the market be oversold? If you can find chart after chart after chart, just stocks are just trying to reclaim the upper channel. So that's kind of where we are. Just remember, just a quick cheat sheet, bulls need to get the benefit of the doubt above the 50 day moving average and bears need to get the benefit of the doubt below the 50 day moving average. So again, as long as we continue to close and build above 296.75, where this whole rally started from three days ago, yes, you're gonna have days that the NASDAQ is gonna be down 100, 150, but as long as they keep on basing and building above this 296.75, the higher probability it's gonna test this new supply zone all the way up to 318. That's kind of the reality. The same thing that happened on the downsides, it's happening to the upside right now. Just the most important part is, stay away from overextended stocks. They have these monster moves over the last three days. Concentrate on tight channels. Because again, skin knee, right? If you skin your knee, put a bandaid, right? Like Chris Rocks said in one of his routines. Put some tussin' on it, right? Put some robe of tussin' on it. You jump out of the 10th floor, you got a fractured neck, fractured vertebra, and you probably will die. Don't jump out of the 10th floor. That's why, again, leave the stocks alone that had the big runs. And let's get to Tesla, right? Tesla had a phenomenal run today, okay? Absolutely phenomenal run. Took out every possible level, literally every single level today. Literally every level today. And this is the highest close in this whole formation. Here's the most ironic part about Tesla, right? It's still macro underneath this whole supply. So you could tell how much room it has to go. And we saw violence. Violence as far as a stairway to heaven today. Literally a staircase to heaven. It took out opening range highs that's 767, 770 error and just kept on going and going and going. And this is one of those names that, look, a lot of these names are down after hours off the snap of the snap earnings. This thing is down like three bucks, right? I wouldn't even be shocked by the time you finish with this broadcast. I wouldn't be shocked that Tesla is running after hours. And if you look at Tesla's chart, you know, if this thing starts building this level here, you know, you have the next supply zone at around 832, right? 832, and if it starts building 832, then you see 860s, 870s, 890s. So this is a play for tomorrow. No matter how much weakness you think you're going to see tomorrow morning, even if there is weakness. When you get a parabolic cult name, staircase to heaven, whether it's an Apple, Amazon, whatever it is, especially Tesla, you know at some point tomorrow it's going to be green. So the play on Tesla tomorrow is either a buy the dip into the rising 60 minute support. As of right now, if this was tomorrow, then we'd be talking about this 802 level, but this is going to adjust, right? We're either going to look to buy Tesla into rising support, right to green or confirming today's channel. Because you know, with this type of momentum, when it opens up red, it's almost like a gift. Okay, it literally is a gift, because you know at some point it's going to go red to green in a day. Again, how it could run up a dollar red to green or it could run up $30 red to green. But the point is when you have that type of stock, we've been doing these plays for many, many years. When you have that type of really aggressive buying, especially on a cult name, there is a high probability it's going to see green at least once for the next day. So that's it, that's it, man. You know, again, we can see indexes pull in tomorrow. The bulls had a great, great three, four-day run. The market is not overbought. It just could be a little stretched out, but we're not overbought. Again, look at the, just all you got to do is look at the charts. Look, for us to be overbought, we would have to be somewhere up here, right? This is still below this whole channel here. You see how much room we still have to the upper channel? How can we be overbought if we're only rallying for three days and we sold off for six, seven months, right? It just doesn't make sense. So again, going to the tomorrow, stay away from the Amazons, the videos, the stocks that had monster, monster runs, right? Start looking at names that are coming out of the channels, like a TTD, you know, like an Uber, right? Tight channels, tight channels, if you're wrong, you're wrong for pennies, you're not wrong for dollars. And that's the most important part. If there's any type of reversal tomorrow, the fact that they're going to take out the stocks with gravity first makes all the sense in the world. Again, which one would you rather loo? Do again, jump out of the 10th floor or jump out of the first floor. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay blessed. Again, let's see how far the Bulls can handle this. Maybe we get a rally to finish off the year, maybe into Labor Day and maybe into the final straw or the final deadline or the final heat of 2022. Again, is it possible that the indexes go red tomorrow? Indexes were red today. Did anybody really feel anything, right? Nasdaq was just out of its mind. Individual stocks did very, very well. But the point is, again, it's not a stock market. It's a market of individual stocks. Guys, have a great night. Stay blessed. I'll see you all tomorrow.