 And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. As always we come to you at the appointed time and that is now the following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So what do we have if you missed the two o'clock update we've got a market that I suspect is really kind of driven by options expiration I actually had some charts in the newsletter this morning the resistance was at 370 on the spies let's see if I can bring it up here we go let's zoom in a little bit so we can see come on Mr. zoom there we go resistance to the as we started this morning was at 370 almost all the charts for options expiration i.e. where the option market makers would love to see stocks expire to keep as much money as possible and win the lottery was about there now this is from last night I've updated I've got it updated maybe I'll show it later but that's kind of it's you know what you're looking for anyway 373 is kind of the level that you're looking at and I don't know if there's a whole lot more going on than that did play the Microsoft calls today and it's gone a little bit farther than we thought and even more than I wanted anyway I was looking for a low somewhere around 10 30 or 11 this morning and it came almost exactly at 11 I got down in the low what like 235 and a quarter about the 235 calls and you know I was thinking well I mean the first resistance was this 240 and I'm not going to be greedy on these days so I started looking at that I actually sold it just a very short time ago but watching these options expirations when you know the patterns are actually correct is one of the best way to make a lot of money in options with fairly little risk and not a lot of time to be put into it I don't know it's going a lot farther than I thought I'm not a real greedy guy but you know you've got to I think maybe 242 50 on the table for the clothes so is this mean anything more than a real big run today and the belief I have is probably not a whole lot I don't put a lot of extra emphasis maybe half the emphasis if it was a regular day on options expiration but it's still fairly good I think we may start seeing a little bit of a wind at our back and that is the idea that it's it sounds like about 98% of a possibility or probability that UK is going to have a new prime minister come Monday morning come hell or high water actually said probably tomorrow afternoon and that means that at least they'll be a little bit of stability over there and maybe some people have come back there's a good chance that they're going to recycle the previous prime minister Boris and bring him back and a lot of people that don't live in that country all scratched her head I've heard about 15 people say the same thing he's coming back they actually like you which is kind of interesting they kind of why everybody kind of at least people in the media chastise them from doing it for saying one thing and doing another a lot of the people kind of like the fact that he just ignored all the core COVID regulations over there because they didn't either unless somebody was chasing them around but you live in any state and that's the way it is 877-927-6648 email me at path at tfnn.com and of course you can always put a message in the den see I've got some emails here so let's see Hector says now it's not quite to 38 Hector not quite on the S&Ps to 3800 let's see what we actually have here at 3742 yeah markets a little weaker than I thought it would be maybe it's a lot of that UK news that we've had across the last week but also we've had a lot of week China news at the same time in the market continues to be able to hang out so what's that are you think that there's something going on here for politics and everybody's sniffing that out this is Hector's words that's it can't be sure you know we're still what I think it's the 8th of November so we still got a couple of weeks out but I have a feeling that a lot of people are starting to consolidate markets really love a president of one party and one or preferably both of the other party in the House and the Senate not because there's going to be that much that they do it's mostly because there's going to be a lot that they don't do so it's kind of the idea that maybe they know a lot more and can plan on what's going to happen because nothing is going to change or very few things are going to change my guess is they couldn't even agree on the sky is blue at the moment and that's why the market kind of likes it least you know what to plan for I think that's why the market has traditionally liked it okay we've got that we got that we got that okay I got a few others going here but let's do a little history and then we'll move on on this day in 1879 Thomas Edison perfects the first commercially practical incandescent light bulb using a filament of carbonized cotton thread is first attempt at this design results in a ball that lasts about 13 and a half hours of course fairly quickly they get to tungsten and Thomas Edison only beat out another gentleman from the UK boy I'm gonna forget his name by like a few hours and that was just because of the place not opening up but that's fun they're having fun anyway on this day in 1879 longest lasting incandescent light bulb was turned on in 1905 and just burned continuously in a fire station out in Livermore California we'll be back in a minute Teddy keg stat has just announced a live webinar coming up for subscribers to his newsletter the tiger forex report Wednesday October 26th at 4 p.m. Eastern time Teddy will be hosting a live 60 minute webinar forex strategies and fundamentals what is behind the tiger forex report newsletter in this 60 minute webinar Teddy will be discussing a full breakdown of the markets that influence currency pairs as well as applying those variables to individual currency pairs how to evaluate trading scenarios for risk versus reward as well as a live question and answer session sign up now and gain instant access to this live webinar coming up as well as a month subscription to Teddy's tiger forex report which comes with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this live webinar event with teddy kegs that Wednesday October 26th sign up now for the tiger forex report at the front page of tfnn.com are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David white's powerful trading newsletter David white is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David white is able to find a path of least resistance David white's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David white's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom o brian is here to help tom o brian has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade network and CNBC tom o brian founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom o brian's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 uh john asks uh will you buy options what are your parameters i do it two ways either i'm buying something that's like two weeks out or i'm buying them either thursday or friday before monthly options expiration on rare occasion i will buy one of those on a friday um i like uh the premiums to wind down to just about nothing and then put that together with uh very good charts and a lot of other stuff um i've made kind of a uh what would you call it a business out of trading monthly options expirations and for the most part you got quad witching so that takes out uh three months of the year where my methods don't work very well for a variety of reasons um out of those eight you get probably seven out of the eight you're gonna get a fairly good indication from the options where they're gonna expire and that's what we were looking at today in the option play but i either want to buy a lot of time i want to buy no time and like today we bought the 235 microsofts uh and i probably would have bought the 237 fifties but i had already put it in the newsletter uh i was thinking maybe we'd get down a little bit less but i like to buy out of the money ones for expiration on the same day and then have them move in i want to see a four to five uh time win when i do win because i know i'm probably going to lose about half the time but uh if you lose 50 percent but you make 400 percent on the times you win um it's always a great day but like that i was going to say on the very bottom you could have bought the options of the 235 today on microsoft for about a buck 50 maybe you bought them for a buck 75 or two bucks but you could have gotten out of them easily at six bucks so not quite uh if you bought at the very high you probably got what uh bought for two bucks sold for six maybe more depending on how long i wanted to sell at 240 excuse me yeah 240 earlier but that was at nine o'clock and again uh as uh the famous uh what was it uh german general said i can't remember his name uh but he said no plan survives first contact with the enemy but uh you can get a pretty good idea i did know that generally you're going to get some kind of low in the market that if you're going to have a big day like today is they're going to shake you out and that's probably going to happen at 10 30 to 11 o'clock sometimes as long as 10 30 or 11 30 excuse me but somewhere in that area they're going to they're going to make everybody cough up at the lowest level their options that are probably going to be worth a great deal by the end of the day on options expiration now sometimes that's to the downside sometimes to the upside but uh you know a lot of times i'll have four five or six uh this is a tough market and it is a bear market so i'm not running around buying calls all the time uh but uh i went and looked through about 30 of them last night that i thought looked like they had good chart patterns and went through the options to smarung before the uh before my newsletter went out and microsoft looked the best for its chart and the best for the way the options were positioned for it to move up now so that's on the short side which is what i did today if i'm going out i want to go something like two to four weeks or i want to buy something that expires tomorrow or today and some of my best trades have been all like today on microsoft have been these ones in fact i will you know you you want to sell as i end every show is sell when you can uh and so we did that i think the newsletter went out when it was at uh 241 50 to sell but i was kind of saying 240 i thought maybe we might get a little bit better entry but that was it we got i think it got to 235 and a quarter or something 8779276648 but uh yeah that's uh what how long have i been doing it my first article came out in uh at christmas of 2004 on trading expiration in stocks and commodities if you're new to the station you've never seen that there's a lot of stuff that changed but it's a good explanation and if you just email me i'll send you a pdf of that article for stocks and commodities christmas of 2004 8779276648 okay take a look at sam which we will take a look at now okay yeah i don't understand if you really think that whoever on the wrong side hasn't covered already or is you know they're gonna cover at the close so i'm not a big fan of uh shorting boston beer 400 puts to the close maybe there's something else i haven't seen i've been watching in her day but if i'm just looking at this you've got plenty of volume you're above the previous high with maybe two or three times volume um you may have too much money or i mean too much money coming in at once you may have a buying climax but i don't think that buying climax resolves itself till monday or tuesday next week um there's an old saying you're not going to get out easily and my guess is there are probably a lot of people that were short boston beer let's uh take a quick look and see how many people are shorted maybe this is one of the ones that had a lot of people all over it well certainly on a daily basis the last two days um 23 percent 21 percent let's see what we had on the buy monthly um oh you got seven days to cover i would not touch this at all before the end of the day anything over five days to cover for me uh is just a suicide pact on shorting it that's because it's just too easy especially in this market uh to run stocks but man yeah so i would have would i would have looked at that and said on that gap up this morning i probably would have if i had looked at that i know it was in my list of shorts um i just didn't pay any attention to it uh but yeah that is huge uh but yeah seven days to cover if you're new to the show don't trade uh days to cover is a metric i like better than the short percentage that is how many days would it take if just the shorts wanted to cover at the average volume for the last 30 days so it would take seven days just for the shorts to get out so this is where you get these monster moves and why i avoid like the plague being short stocks with massive days to cover and uh and it's got eight and a half percent short which is not that bad is this there's not that much volume so you get going uh narrow entrances and narrow exits we'll be back in a minute if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold reports are comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i published the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xAU hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with tom o'brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system david white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for fibonacci formation setups including guardleaf abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only seventy nine dollars a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com a lot of people ask for that article um path at tfnn.com if you want a question on the show today or if you want to look at that pdf uh again some stuff has changed over the time but the basic ideas of what and how it works we'll go back to 1902 with a gentleman that went to a kind of a farm what would you call it like a a fair and they had a bunch of folks guessing at how much a cow weighed and the one that was closest would win the cow and this guy was kind of interested I think his name was Galton and he gave a couple bucks to the proprietor of the fair to get all the guesses and when found out that the average of the guesses even though there were some they're way off both high and low the average of the guesses was closer than anybody's individual guess and that has become known as the wisdom of crowds I kind of subscribe to that theory and a lot of stuff including the newsletters morning I don't put it in every day but I do have it and that is uh to to to the td9s and while a lot of these things are a little bit better than a flip of a coin a lot of times when you put them a great deal together of them like all of them in this case the one on the top is a histogram of those yesterday we had kind of the last big hurrah which is another reason why I thought we were going to bounce today we had over 100 stocks on the minus nine of the td9 we didn't have a lot of stuff following in fact we got a good six days out we had a few that went lower yesterday to bring a decent amount of ones and twos but for the most part if the market's fairly balanced and inside a standard distribution that's fairly good but when you see the end of the road for people selling stocks as we had I'm not and haven't been rather bearish for a little while and of course the other big thing that happened can I put it up here was that we started uh I was kind of worried before one of the reasons I stayed out let me see if I can find it here two was the equity put call but uh we had a uh I think one I think in 10 days in the last 20 years uh on the 14th we had the record and biggest low in the uh vicks in the put call ratio on it and that's always makes me a little nervous because there's always a lot of downside potentially in the market I like it when there are a lot of bears in the market if I'm bearish I don't want anybody in the market and I'm going to look for huge swings to the downside as we've seen but once we start getting people back and involved and bearish in the market what it really does is mean that you're not you're going to have those people buying on the way down and then you're going to have an opportunity to get out almost every big huge gap down has been based on very few if anybody being short there's always some people that are going to be short whatever but I mean for the most part when you see huge numbers um of one side or the other on the put call ratio especially on the vicks I like the vicks better because it's just the premiums on the puts and calls and there's no in the money options at that time and that gives you an idea of what if anybody's looking for any big move and of course we got those big moves both up and to the downside but when we had that vicks get back to basically one almost one to one on the put call ratio that lets you know that there's enough shorts probably out there I think you can infer that there are a lot of people shorting the market and doesn't mean you're going to be right it does mean that I think you can put a and imply a risk that's much lower to the downside than on a day when you only get 15 percent of a put call ratio and of course since they're not in the money that really connotes either a hedge or the other thing which is that somebody is buying some deep protection so that's it uh on that 877-927-6648 if you want to talk on the phone okay um somebody in the den has a question there is and hey maybe I'll if I if I during the next break if I have a chance I'm going to bring it out and that is a uh the different patterns that options can make and I'll just go through them I I generally I've done some webinars on it before the problem is if you don't have my system and you're not doing the data and you're not calculating it every day it doesn't quite mean the same thing I get to to look at a lot of them and I think that's given me the kind of experience that generally most people won't have in looking at those patterns but we will show them uh I should have an opportunity during the break to get it uh those people asking um out here we will okay and see uh can we get a winner winner for SLB I was actually uh gonna go through these uh these things but yeah um slumber jay so uh you've broken above the previous low today I mean the previous high that was the June 8th high that had 15 million shares you've got 27 million shares that's a sign of strength now one of the things that Tim Ord talked about early on in my trading I probably didn't talk about it as much I probably talked more about it than him these days uh is the kind of uh three bear is that three bears and the yeah yeah where the one the porridge is uh too cold just right and too hot um but there's always this kind of idea where you do get a selling or a buying climax when you get just huge amounts of volume if you get 100 or I mean 200% or 100% more volume that's okay you get 200% probably still okay on the edge of getting 300% more volume on a breakout that's where you really want to start looking at the possibility of just having a uh a buying climax as you break through these so you know you're just a hair under 200% of the volume of the previous high that's exactly where you like it that's how these things that just go on and on and on they don't uh they don't blow off with um you know 500% of the volume of the previous high so yes we can get a winner winner chicken dinner um so we'll we'll give it uh we'll give it a party horn and see what else here uh we'll think about it uh we had only about 30 seconds let's go ahead and check uh volume over most of these tf and end stations are ready well we're doing much better all right looks like we're gonna get into the 12 billion maybe 12 and a half billion share mark by the end of the day 8.1 billion shares we'll be back in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information david whites investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future david white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade david delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only 37 dollars and 50 cents sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it 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this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nysc american and tsx under the symbol vgz and as we come back let me uh i got a few emails here let me clear these out and uh get them out so i'm not backed up here and then we're going to go into uh this paper i have for my webinars on this um but there's a lot of different patterns um when you look at the curve they call it the options uh x-brae or the uh smile on it and there's a lot of different patterns so this is the one that generally uh the distribution that you'll normally get uh on options and we'll go here just a little bit farther out um but uh if you look at just to where the money is going to expire uh sometimes you get these big use and all that means is it doesn't matter for the option market maker if the thing goes higher or lower um it's pretty much the same you know if the stock goes five dollars higher today or tomorrow or lower tomorrow on expiration they don't have much to risk uh you have more of a uh pattern that you see a lot uh with uh uh with low dollar stocks uh and uh news coming like uh earnings and that is you'll have just one huge side uh that's uh that has uh kind of the expiration movement on it and so that's it it's just telling you that they only want to take one side of the trade and it's generally because the stock is extremely cheap uh or extremely expensive so um you know they're not willing to either thinking it's going to go the other way and all this money is going to go to their uh kids uh education and college fund uh at the option market makers some people call this the kind of the hockey stick at least i do pattern uh but this is just the money that is going to go uh get paid out or not get paid out uh there's a one and this is a lot more like what we see in uh microsoft today i call it either the goblet or the uh the wine glass but more it's not as quite as a u but it's a little bit wider um and then there's really v's which microsoft was somewhere between this goblet and a real v um i thought that you know 240 would probably be pretty good uh if you bought it at 235 today um it was the v on that was actually uh were about it is let's take a look i haven't checked see yeah yeah so i got a pretty good sell on there above 241 so yeah so anyway the v patterns are really what you're looking for on options expiration if you can find them they're not always there and it's not every stock's going to have them i like i said i looked at 30 or 40 stocks last night and this morning and that one just stood out the microsoft one both in the chart and this stood out the best um a lot of times you'll have more of these hockey stick things will you have uh that on both sides and people are just uh you know they're more than willing to sell if the thing goes higher or buy if it goes lower so you sometimes get these kind of weird patterns um i've never been able to make heads or tails about predicting the future of those so much but uh you got a lot and some of them will be like this which is kind of a wall higher and yeah can it go from 55 down to 45 is that going to make a huge amount of difference to the market maker probably not uh but they're pretty much betting this on this blue line here that uh ain't going any higher so you know when you actually look at that now one guy asked in the den the reason i brought this up uh was because of coder uh in the den who brought this up and he said uh heard a guru say there's a point in the slope of the option delta where delta 30 percent and 70 cent slope is steeper between delta 30 percent and 70 cent then that starts to flatten out the outside of the range do you have any thoughts on that yeah um a lot of people don't really understand that the stock market has what's caught called fat tails and that is in any other well i'd say 90 percent of uh events or uh any kind of data you look at it's going to have some kind of thing that looks like a bell curve on the options uh and in the stock market very different and that is you're going to have uh get too low and everybody's going to say we've been down for nine days so we're not going down another day well that works about 75 percent of the time but then you get what they call these fat tails and i've exaggerated it on both the upside and the downside um there's a better explanation than i can give you right now uh from nasim to libe he calls it the fourth quadrant and in that quadrant uh it's more about a lot of people being off sides uh than actually being how can i explain this more than uh than uh you know they're either way too hedged or they've got a loan that's going to get uh get called or they've got uh margin that's being dropped in a uh especially in uh commodities where you know they come along and everybody's been making a lot of money and suddenly they drop uh the margin in half and everybody has to sell stuff um there are enough of these and nasim nasim nasim to libe has made money betting on them because almost no one does the options he says are vastly underpriced and he'll bet on these for two three years uh and then one comes off and he makes 50 to one and he's pretty happy uh people that actually wrote the options probably not happy i've kind of got a modified view of that but again i need a lot of conditions to be correct and one of those is to be in options that i can lose very little and make on a percentage basis a whole lot and that's why i like options exploration trading some people call it white lightning um you know if you do it right i don't know if that's the right description of it i just know that over time i can make 400 percent on the times i'm right on average um i'm going to lose probably all of it about half that time um so if you lose 100 percent you make 400 percent uh overall you're probably going to make 200 percent and it's actually a fairly good business to be in but uh it's not one of these things where you win every time but when you win uh the return is so overwhelming as to the losses generally uh that you can do it and two if you've got a lot of self-discipline that you just wait and you wait and you wait um and you're willing to bypass ones that don't look good um you can do very well anyway i hated the bear market but this looks so good on microsoft that i had to take it today and i sold when i could not when i had to for those calls we'll be back in a minute if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try tom yo brian delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market 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during market hours the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com catch tom will brian professional trader and educator founder of tfnn also a special guest on cnbc tom will bisect and dissect the markets the tom will brian show next on tfnn as we get back uh well we pretty much got the options expiration that i was looking for maybe a little higher in the s&p's uh than i thought earlier this morning but we broke through the resistance that went back up to the next level uh so that's it again i don't make a great deal more on options expiration deal than i would uh two weeks ago because uh it's probably if the signal's like a one then i'll give it a half on options expiration there's too many cross currents and stuff going on now we go on in options expiration to the rollover on monday and tuesday somebody asked in the den um something that kind of brought something to mine and that is you want to or if there's two days that even out almost anything it is the rollover monday and tuesday after options expiration week it's pretty rare to get any kind of significant move between those that is the days that a lot of the hedges come on and off they put new ones on and the market makers and most of the people on the street are pushing stuff up or down and then pretty much by wednesday we get back uh to the market and the direction it's going to take so i wouldn't get too excited about today but i also wouldn't say that monday the uh pants are going to fall off everybody uh probably have a good uh belief that by monday morning probably by sunday before the markets open again uh that the uk market or the uk will have a new prime minister and already announced that may savage uh settle what is that the settle the savage beast i forget whatever they said about king kong the beauty that uh settled the savage beast so we may get a little bit of that on monday but uh i wouldn't get too far over the tips of our skis uh hang on for tom o brian and uh so when you can not when you have to we'll be back monday building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible