 Salam, you're watching NewsClick. We're in Manipur, a state that has finished 50 years of statehood in 2022. For those of us who missed the past couple of years because of the pandemic, it has been 50 years. We're just a few days away from the beginning of polling for the 12th Assembly elections for the state. A brief run-through of the state's history from 1947 to 49, Manipur was an independent state after which it merged with the Union of India. In 1963, it was declared a Union territory and in 1972, full statehood was achieved by Manipur. Leading our, leading NewsClick's coverage of this round of elections in Manipur is journalist Grace Jajo, who's with me today. To run us through basically what some of the key issues are, like a friend was telling me last night, the politics of the state are quite simple, but the complexities are still many. Grace, you might start with disagreeing with that statement. I completely agree with that. So, because unless you understand this dynamics within, it would be extremely, if you want to simplify it into a very homogenous kind of character, then we might miss on what exactly is happening. So, therefore, it is important that we understand this dynamics. You please show how these dynamics are playing out in the election and there is where you are able to see all the, you know, power tussle, the real power tussle. So, just to do a quick demographic break up, very broadly speaking and very numbers based, the state has a population of approximately 30 million, of which the gender ratio is about 50-50, men slightly outnumbering women. Trusting, yes. There are 60 assembly seats of which 20 are in the hill areas, 40 are in the infall valley. This kind of goes against the geographical distribution of the state where 91% of the area of the state is hill area, largely where the state's tribal population lives, which numbers approximately 48% of the overall population. Some of these numbers, Grace, and you can add to them, please, of course, if you want to. Yes, we are, the tribals are about 42%. The hill areas also include a population of non-tribal, like in the Char Hazare area, which is in Kankopi constituency, and also in some other areas like the Moray and the Jiribam area. So, other than that, I think it's exclusively tribal areas. The domiciles are exclusively tribal. What is interesting is how we became a permanent minority in the assembly, and a lot of tribal leaders say this is because the last delimitation exercise was manipulated, because if we bring in the criteria of the geography, if we bring in the criteria of backwardness, then despite the population being slightly higher on the non-tribal, the tribal would have had 30 out of the 60 seats and would have been 50-50. But the reality today is that we are 20, but interestingly, Manipur has a very significant corrector, which is constitutional safeguard for the tribals. Despite being just 20 out of 60, it's a constitutional safeguard. It's under Article 371c. That safeguard allows us to have our voice inside the assembly without being defeated by the number game. So, we have this subcommittee inside the assembly, which is called the Hill Area Committee, and the voice of the Hill Area Committee, which represents the Hill Area's concerns and their interests, cannot be defeated by the House. So, that is our only constitutional safeguard. Otherwise, we are a state with 42% tribals who doesn't even have a sixth-shadow in place. Sixth-shadow has always been debated inside the assembly. The non-tribals have always said that we will agree to the sixth-shadow because you are constitutionally eligible for that, but with local adjustment. And these three words have been extremely problematic, have never been specified or laid out. So, we don't know. It has never been defined. So, every time it's debated, it ends with the same conclusion saying with local adjustment. So, that local adjustment has never happened till date. So, in a way, it means that we are denied sixth-shadow, but we have this Hill Area Committee created under 371c, which is our only safeguard. So, that's the reason why this time the Hill population is coming across our 34 ethnic tribes to collectively voice for a proper implementation of this 371c. And this historical context is important because it kind of, like you said, it puts into perspective the duality that exists in every aspect of Manipuri society or society in Manipur, rather. But coming to the electoral aspects of this particular upcoming election for which polling is, the first round of polling is to be held on the 28th of Feb, just in a few days from now. Firstly, who are the key players and how are we going to be looking at what they are doing on the electoral front, whether it's from the perspective of their manifestos or what they have stated in their agenda, or their record, because many of them have already held office? Congress has never been a minority. In the last election, there were 28, BJP was just 21, just behind them, so Congress was very much a majority then. So, we don't know how it will play out this time because there's been a lot of hopping among the parties, not only for Congress but also for everyone. So, we don't know how it will play out in terms of gathering the votes. That is one, that is at the political level. And the popularity of the political parties varies from which community you belong to, whether you like it or not. Here, it's not so much about class, it's more about your ethnic city. So, for instance, if you are a tribal, because among the tribes, 97 of the tribal communities are Christians. So, we are slightly sceptic about the BJP government. And also because BJP government keeps saying this thing that no matter what BJP has done elsewhere in India, we have never said no to your Christian way of life, not only belief but also your way of life and your worship patterns and stuff. But what was extremely disturbing was, that was what they used to say. And that's how a lot of BJP kind of mushroom tinderheels in terms of loyalties, in terms of units, in terms of people signing up for the party, then suddenly there was this church eviction notice given to nine churches. And what was very interesting was that eviction notice kind of was clubbed with some other listed items, which were also supposedly illegal. But the rest were all regularised and the churches were marked out and eviction notice was given to nine churches. Now this became extremely problematic and it became extremely problematic to the Christian community. And so that might reflect in the voting pattern in the hill areas because that's the hardest thing. The second thing which kind of increased this anxiety and concern was that when the voting date was declared in the initial notification, when it includes Sunday. And includes Sunday and then but there was protests all over, there was like church groups, civil society groups, tribes groups, everyone came out. But the government didn't say a word, they didn't even comment, they didn't even say they would look into it. It was only when all Tribal Student Union Manipur gave them a deadline, you know. I think that was the tenth of fact that they gave saying like, this is not what we will tolerate. So it was only when the Atsum came with that kind of a language, with that kind of a tone and with that kind of a deadline, that ultimately this thing changed the dates. Now it's not a Sunday anymore. But what we are seeing is that, you know, do we have to assert our rights all the time? Shouldn't the government be sensitive about who they are ruling? Aren't we in a secular state? Why is it that, you know, this 97 population of the Tribal's interest is not taken into consideration for such an important, you know, this thing did, right? So all those things are now playing out and it's reaffirming our concerns, earlier concerns related to the eviction. So that is BJP. BJP was almost like a forgotten party in the state and then suddenly they pop up with a few numbers that in the last election, they knew that because of the position in the centre, they might be able to gain out of it. So some, you know, very smart people, I would say, came to the party, became kings of the party and started chanting the party ideologies. But they are not the ones who have been chanting the same thing for years. They were the ones who were chanting so many things before they were chanting this. So it's a typical, you know, politics that people criticize. But having said that, it was not smooth from day one. When they got 21, they co-opted everyone. There were like scenes where they used a lot of force even at the airport to co-opt people to reach that magic number. So they formed, okay, they manipulated and they formed. Let's be agreeable to them that they manipulated and they formed the government. And midway in the midst of pandemic, the NPP went and camped physically with the Congress and they gave a press conference saying they will never come back under any circumstances. But of course, the boss came into town. There was like series and series of conversations and afterwards in the end they were pushed back to the party. So within the BJP, within the BJP-led government, there has never been a smooth ride. One, maybe it's the power tussle, but much more than that, it's also the, what, interestingly, it's also the overlapping of their ideologies. For instance, they have NPF. NPF, who is all for Naga integration. Then they have BJP, who is like takes the majority position and say, we are all for Manipura integrity. Because Manipura integrity is chanted by 40 constituencies. So they chant the majority chant. Every party in power first, they chant this. So they say that we are for Manipura integrity. But they have people like NPF, who is very clear that they want Naga integration. So it's very interesting how they play out, because by co-opting the NPF in the party, they were able to at least minimize the buns and blockets on the highway, National Highway A1, which was previously known as NH39. So that's apparent to the public. But what was very disappointing at the ground was that the NPF were called failures in their own constituencies, because they had not pushed anything that they were supposed to push, perhaps because there are just four against the other. And they didn't gain anything by moving out of that, because anyway they could not align with the Congress. So they were also trying to maximize their opportunity by being with the BJP land government. But they completely failed on the manifestos that they gave to the people. So the voting this time might reflect whether the people were disappointed for not delivering the promises which we were anticipating from NPF, because they became part of the government. And so on various things, like for example, they were against the Congress on district creation on the eve of election. In 2016 December, I think if I'm not mistaken, the districts were created and the Nagas were outrightly furious. And they said, this is the Congress which has done this. So Congress is against the interests of the Nagas. But NPF happily brought the cabinet meeting to the new created districts. So if the NPF is bringing cabinet meetings to the new created districts, which means they have already accepted it. And they have not made any noise about it. They are comfortable with it. So in fact, they are actually demanding more funds and more upgradation of this new district creation. So it's the opposite of when I mentioned it. So what they want by pushing out the Congress saying they are anti-Nagas, when they came in, they kind of pushed the Congress agenda to survive. So this time I don't know what kind of cards they will play to win the voters. Because in the first launching, NPF played a very interesting card on the eve of that. The general secretary of the NSN IM, Mr. Thwingelang Muga was brutally stopped in Maugate from entering and visiting his hometown. Now that has completely heard the sentiment of the Nagas. And two young protesters were also shot dead by the Monipu Commander Dan. So it was a very ugly incident which completely sharpens the divide between the hills and the valley. Especially between the Nagas and the valley. So with that background, in 2012 they were able to garnish the pro-Naga sentiments. So in the launching, they weren't in four constituencies. And people were happy that they represent the Nagas position because people feel that whether it's the Congress or whether it's the BJP, they are dictated by the center. But this particular party is Nagas-centric. They will work for the Nagas. Nothing much happened. And the other party that kind of has been contesting elections in Manipur for a while but this time, because of the party hopping that we were talking about, has perhaps benefited the most from these changes, is the JDU. Yes, yes. Very interestingly, yes. No one would have anticipated this. So JDU, I'm sure, is very remote in terms of popularity, just a month back. So I would never have imagined this, the way it's playing out today. You're here in the countdown, you've seen how vibrant they are now. But you would not have anticipated this. But I think the BJP has a lot of polarity even within. So it's apparent even to the public now, which initially must have been within their confines, but it has spilled over to the public now. They have like two camps within. And owing to that, I think they don't have a consensus even in announcing their 16 aims. So that plays out because if they have a consensus, then they will not have been this drama after that. So on the day itself, on the next day, in the following days, there was such a rush everywhere to all the political parties. But then Congress has already announced their first lease and maybe they were not able to absorb everyone. Because they have their own candidates. So I heard that some candidates were actually looking out for options also, not only running to GDU, but also going one after another. So we had a lot of things like off-record, but I think that thing was happening in a very panicky mode. So GDU absorbs a lot of extremes. So a lot of extremes like who otherwise would not have seen as coming together. So for instance, we have a very vibrant young lady contestant like Brinda coming to GDU, which I'm sure is a backup plan because if she was interested in GDU, she would have been the forefront, the poster girl for a poster woman for them, poster candidate for them. But I'm sure there was a backup plan. I'm sure like she was hoping till the last moment because it was only after the confirmation and the announcement of the candidates that she joined the GDU likewise with the other candidates as well. But if you look at the combination within the GDU came now, it's so amazing as to how they are going to negotiate among themselves and compromise their ideological positions, individual ideological positions. And to come together and work out a common minimum program even among themselves. So that's one. And this time they are the most ambitious because from four they are thinking that they have even put on like record in some of the press conferences and in some of the public meetings they are going to get the majority. So absolute majority and some of their candidates have actually seen this. So it's like it's from four to absolute majority would be like, you know, that's like extremely ambitious for me to see because I don't see their popularity growing in isolation as a party. I don't see anything which is so distinct and unique and important about them which can attract voters in the hills or in the valley. Grace, another key issue is the ADC bill. Can you summarize for us please what the debate and the status is there? The tribals were never united. After the bitter clash of the cookies and agas in the early 90s which spill over to the mid 90s, for two and a half decades we have always been separated by this history. So in fact the only platform where tribals come together is this old Tribal Student Union Malipur other than that we don't have a common platform for the tribals here in the state. But this time, interestingly, this new ADC bill is something which all the tribals across our 34 tribes are embracing it as our future, you know, as our future because we have been deprived of six-shadow, we have been deprived of delimitation exercise. Whenever there is a delimitation exercise that is supposed to happen all the non-tribals across political parties would come together, go to Delhi and say we don't want this. It's sensitive, you know, like low in order situation, whatever that is. So the tribals' interest has always been suppressed by this collectiveness. So if it's like tribal then the non-tribals doesn't have any problem coming together across the extreme, you know. Of the spectrum. So that being the reason and for us we have never come together. This is the first time that we are coming together. Now the ADC bill is very interesting because in 2018 25 departments were already given to the ADCs. We have six ADCs as of now. So 25 departments have already been, there has been devolution of power of 25 departments. But it was just, nobody has issues with that. Nobody has issues that 25 departments has been given to the ADCs because there was no budget involved. And they thought like, unless there is no budget involved let them like, you know, imagine that there is something happening, you know. It's that kind of a tokenism which was given to us. The new ADC bills want to really run the show, run these 25 departments, you know. And that is where like now the non-tribals have issues. The chief ministers outrightly, outrightly said he's not going to table it. There was a viral video where he even used, you know, gestures like, say it's not over might, not over might that. Which was brutal and which was derogatory and which was extremely insensitive to the population as a chief minister of the state. We have had tribal chief ministers twice. But if a tribal chief minister had said that in that position, you know, they would have been outraged everywhere. So, you know, I would just think a chief minister saying that on record was just too much. It also shows like how, you know, like they will continue to deny justice to the tribals, you know. But having said that, having everything, I think, you know, if you look at the recent Assumsa, this thing, appeal, they have appealed to the all right-thinking citizens, I think, to say that like, leave aside everything. Everything else is appeasement. But let all the candidates also commit to the ADC bill. Let them, this thing, clarify their position on the ADC bill. Let them be explicit about their position on the ADC bill. And whoever is for the ADC bill, across political parties, we are all for that. So they have clearly said that the tribals should vote for anyone who will take this bill forward. So even if the state government refuses to table the ADC bill, I'm sure it's not going to be buried. The tribals are going to push for this with the new government, whoever comes in place. All right. We are running out of both time and daylight because we are on Eastern standard time, which doesn't officially, unfortunately exist. But that should give us a sense, I think, of how some of the key stories in this election process will play out grace over the next few days and weeks. And we'll be covering a lot of them in further detail on Yousley, thanks to Grace's reportage. Key issues, we're in Manipur University right now. Key issues that we'll also be looking at over the course of the next week will be what young people are looking at, whether it's employment, education, healthcare, issues such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which is very much both a debate as well as the reality that the people of Manipur live with, whether in the valley or in the hill areas, and one that the BJP as the ruling party, the incumbent ruling party has neglected to even mention in its manifesto. So lots to be explored in the state and we'll be bringing you all of that in the next few days. That's it for now.