 being shot we have to software right so welcome everyone to the group for 14th welcome Ken as well so um right dollar hawkish skip or peak rates um so tonight we've got FOMC and pretty much the feather expected to pause and keep options open to raise rates in july and the dot block give FOMC sentiment um on additional hikes so um talking about you know the fed dot plot um if you don't know what that is it means federal reserve policymakers for more than two years now have been steadily ratcheting up the so-called terminal rate interest rates sorry where they see the benchmark rate popping out yeah and so um basically it's just a forecast dot plots is basically where they where the fed are forecasting um uh in their their interest rates and they kind of do it on a uh I guess it's kind of like dots on a graph I was looking for a actual an example of it could but couldn't find one but um but basically um if the fed come out and pretty much say well they might hike one more time um then they'll factor that into uh their uh their forecasts on interest rates which are basically known as dot plot so um basically it says um and if fed watchers are right there's at least one more ratcheting ratcheting up uh coming on Wednesday uh with chair Jerome power having signal that the fed will refrain from raising rates at the two-day gathering all eyes are on officials updates policy um sorry all eyes will be on officials's updated policy rate projections esteem a few of course there so that's basically um what's happening and FOMC may project via the longer rates as inflation persists so the fed forecast may show faster growth less unemployment in 2023 so um so let's see uh what happens here um but yeah I think um overall um you you know inflation measures today we had um ppi producer prices inflation and month for month and that came out uh lower than expected why is you know why are we looking at this is really if you're the fed obviously um are trying to combat inflation and to combat inflation they need to hike rates and if inflation is seen as naturally coming down towards their two percent target then it means that they don't necessarily need to hike so they also need and I've mentioned this last week is they need to kind of you know central banks might need to have a have a bit of a pause to see the effect of interest rates on the economy because interest rates lag you know you're not seeing you might make a decision today about where inflation is not knowing if in the next three months the decision that you make today may may have an effect um in you know the next two three four five six months and so it's it's almost like they they're uh that they um they're they're a bit well all central banks not just the federal reserve but they have to kind of guide inflation but be ahead of inflation and then basically just hope that inflation kind of comes down as a reaction later on to what they've done today in the next maybe three to six months if that makes any sense it basically it lags so the effect of their interest rates lag in the economy and so um any data that shows inflation coming down which today it did produce the prices and if you don't know what producer prices are producer prices for final demand um in the u.s month of month following uh where's where's the explanation for it uh it's uh give the accurate uh the accurate um summary here it is so in the united states to produce a price inflation uh for final demand measures month over month changes in the price for commodities sold for personal consumption capital investment government and export is composed of six main price indexes final demand goods and so on and so forth but when we're talking about anything to do with prices prices are basically inflation so whenever you hear a measure or you see a measure measuring some sort of price it's a measure it could be taken as a measure of inflation and it's written here anyway it says uh producer price inflation right so um with that coming down we'll you're seeing actually in fact um the federal reserve of it looks like apparently uh 98 percent that's gone up to 98 percent yes i think earlier today it was like it was like 95 but pretty much it looks like a done deal um but with july july actually um is around 61 percent for a 25 basis point height and 0.7 this was actually i think this was this was a lot higher uh i say i look higher but this was a bit higher than um i think yesterday in a day before uh that i'd noticed i think with inflation measures coming down the the need to hike by for example 50 basis points is probably you know a bit extreme so i think the market now is pricing in still a potential hike at the next meeting so the dollar could still be supported um especially if uh bed chair jerome pow confirms that today if his if his statement is actually quite hawkish and so um the data still does have to support the narrative remember that as well just because you have a hawkish central bank if inflation is coming down then um and coming down naturally you know then um you know the uh the need for them to actually hike um they'll probably just remove that because actually central banks don't want to kind of tinker with interest rates in this day absolutely have to uh ken says um what uh what don't see it i think he tries to be hawkish to say face uh and use core cpi yeah because call didn't call stay the same was called the only measure that kind of stayed the same i think it was um but you don't see him hiking again uh put put the thoughts on discord okay i must have uh missed it i haven't i haven't read it yet but um but yeah that that that is definitely a possible scenario right where it's pretty much just jaw boning because if he hasn't got if again the next core inflation reading starts to tick down right another another measures of inflation still starts to come down then whatever he says today is just going to be whatever right he's not going to want to um he's not going to want to hike but it depends to the obviously the degree of inflation falling or again if it remains sticky right because that's also another option um it's going to be tougher interview wrong twice and yeah well um these central bankers seem to be getting it wrong all the time me you know andrew bailey for example bank of england he's been wrong about inflation um you know and and the sessions is crazy how how wrong these these uh central bankers and economists have been especially over the past you know like i said past for the months is crazy um but yeah that's where we are with the dollar so it's really all about the speech and and the dot plots um you know so keep an eye on the dots um in terms of there should be if you go to bloomberg i'm sure they will publish it at some point i'm not too sure where i mean if you go to maybe the actually should be on here shouldn't it one seconds uh where was it again um historical one second is on here no no no no no no uh i'm sure it was i'm sure they used to have the dot plots in here did anyone remember where to find the dot plots where they had the uh where they had oh right in front of me dot plot grand blind right so this is basically well uh where they see um uh the interest rates so it really just depends they see obviously interest rates coming down right the the blue dots well if they start to update these dots to where you know the market interprets it as it being you know they kind of um either keep interest rates as they are for longer and not necessarily cut rates in the future or if they you know pretty much project higher rates potentially then that is going to um you know uh support the uh the dollar so um right and uh they've been uh predicting higher inflation and we're not seeing that at the moment yeah we're not seeing at the moment i was listening to something um the other um say the other day but earlier this morning um some analysis and the guy was saying that he thinks that the um it was an independent um research and he was just saying that he thinks that the inflation is going to remain sticky but let's see right let's see um who knows at the end of the day um but what we do what we can do is just as we know how to react if inflation you know either goes lower or you know comes in sticky right becomes in sticky pretty much you know you want to probably look to potentially buy the dollar depending on how sticky it is if it comes in higher then you're definitely looking to buy the dollar based off of just one more rate hike but if it continues to go lower then and you're in for example uh a short dollar trade and you know let the let the data support your your trade right and give you confluence with your trade so you can stay in a trade for as long as the data supports your trade right if it doesn't support your trade then you may want to even look to take some profit you know partial profits maybe full profits um or maybe trail your stops for example um but either way if you're in a you know a short dollar trade then um no need to get out for now right any supporting you know uh data is uh is great for your trade if you are um short on the dollars at the moment ECB moving over to the ECB so the ECB inches nearer to to the interest rate summit and it says with the zero sorry with the eurozone economy faltering policy makers should signal a pause in rates is imminent and i've been talking about this for the past um you know a couple of weeks especially what a couple of weeks but actually yeah last past couple of weeks but last week we had a confirmed recession right because i was seeing the data um the economic data wasn't coming out great for the euro and then there was a confirmed recession but it looks like the market has pretty much looked past the recession when it comes to the euro um for now and more focusing on uh the rate hikes but as i spoke about last week and um you know in previous weeks and i'll say it again is that the central bank typically you know it's not advised that central bank hike into a recession because you're just going to make the recession worse right if because because the higher the interest rate goes you have you know uh it contracts the economy because you raise borrowing and lending costs and so you know i was talking today about the the lag effect of higher interest rates right so when the fed hike interest rates or any central bank hikes interest rates today they they wouldn't they might see the effect of that two three four five six months down the line right nobody knows really the time lag so actually in fact sorry not to not to um kind of go off off topic but today i put something in here which was actually quite interesting um see if i can find it see if i can find it see if i can find it it was to do with here we here it is here it was right so this look from uh mu fg and they were saying this illustrates the point yeah about interest rates um not finding their way into the economy immediately so this paragraph here it says indeed it is the housing market where we are likely to see an increasing uh like to see increasing stress as past monetary tightening feeds into the economy remember according to the bank of england as of may prior to the last hike of 415 basis points of tightening at that stage only 71 basis points had actually hit the housing market yeah and so you know the effect of borrowing and lending in the economy they calculated that you know pretty much what's that you know not even i don't know like just maybe like 15 you know 16 percent of you know of of the hikes have actually hit the um the housing market right and so that is what i'm talking about in terms of in terms of lags and the effect that rate you know your dead their decisions have on the economy um in the future and so going back to here um you know there could be potentially tomorrow you know we're all focused on the dollar but if the if europe come out and pretty much say well you know we're not looking to hike rates as much or you know maybe one might be taken off the table or they're going to be you know they signal maybe a dovish hike for example then the euro is likely to actually um uh devalue right and so it says the european central bank will almost certainly implement the eight successive uh increase in its final sorry in its official deposit rate on thursday tomorrow this time by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent the interesting bit will be whether it signals it might be ready to at least start thinking about thinking about a pause which is hilarious but um given a welcome downturn in inflation recently and signs that the euro zone economy is flatlining at best yeah a hint that rate hikes are no longer automatic at every meeting would be prudent right so their priority yes is to is to get inflation down but to what you know detriment to what to what effect on the economy and so um again mr marcus ashworth you know knows this economics 101 right so if they were if they put the strong economy we would have you know we know no issue with um the european central bank actually uh hiking rates but hiking into a recession you might want to uh to think twice about that uh ken says q2 should be better and show um show them out of it i don't know i don't know um i don't know well let's see let's see because again we don't know the effect of what the hikes now are doing in the economy now so let's say for example you know the last two quarters have been obviously negative interest rates and remember since first quarter data yeah they've been hiking interest rates into the second you know i mean the second um uh uh uh reading of contraction right so i think it was the fourth quarter was negative the first quarter was was negative so during the second quarter they were still hiking so who knows whether that will actually stop uh and continue to contract the economy right that's gonna be um the question the effect of whether you know their their hikes over the past three months have actually helped or hindered um uh the economy so um yeah let's see it let's see whether whether that does happen um so another news the uk economy bounced back in april with gains for retailers so there was some positive news for the uk uh this morning and it said that the uk bounced back uh in april a strong growth in the retail and creative industry sectors offset a slowdown in construction and manufacturing so some positive news for uh the uk as a whole that should keep the the pound supported the new zealand dollar may have entered a recession sooner than uh reserve bank of new zealand expected and so this has been how you do in eagle you're right um this is this is this is a um this is one that is a bit conflicting right because you have i think it was market consensus i think i spoke about this um where are we now countries more country new zealand and you've got gdp right so they they're at minus six and um um first quarter data actually is supposed to i mean i think um trading economics have revised their forecast matter of fact because i think they did have a positive number here i think they had 0.1 a lot i'm gonna look to it i think they revised it now down to 0.2 and minus minus 0.2 minus 0.1 so the consensus and the trading economics forecast is actually for a recession for a negative number and so if they do have a negative number then new zealand are going to be in um a recession and so pretty much you know hiking into a recession they've already paused right so they're not they're not they made it clear that they're not hiking so for them to confirm a recession and then start to hike again again is not it's not going to be great for them so the new zealand economy may have contracted for a second consecutive quarter putting in putting it into a recession sooner than central bank expected and um it says there was a wide margin of uncertainty around the quarterly results Michael Gordon senior economist at westpac banking corp in hawkland but the underlying picture is that the economy is cooling off as higher interest rates bite you see again the lagging effects of interest rates on the economy yeah um and so yeah let's see what happens with the new zealand and the new zealand actually has been strengthening to date um which is which is um not surprising um in currency land if you look at you know for example the new zealand had you look at like the the new zealand euro new zealand you're seeing this this drop now i like these drops many of you know some of you might know i like these drops into levels because it's either one of two things is happening either one of two things is happening either the market knows that the new zealand you know data is going to come out positive right and they're getting ahead of the curve right they're getting ahead of that you know because they've done their calculations etc but we know that is probably unlikely because consensus pretty much is for a negative reading right so pretty much all economists all economists but the consensus is pretty much saying you know minus 0.1 so is the market really getting ahead is the market really getting ahead of of and thinking that it's going to actually be a positive number could be could be a conspiracy right it could be giving us wrong numbers and creating against us that could be something um or the second alternative the second alternative is that the market is clearing out all the stops below levels that's it there's a lot of liquidity below these levels in expectation for a recession so the question you've got to ask before um you know uh an event like you know gdp is um is the fact that the sorry one second sorry i was a bit distracted sorry um yeah before before the news comes out is whether uh the market is long and how many stops you know they're putting underneath here right because the majority of people are expecting the majority of the market are expecting uh you know but that's right especially when you think about the euro right the euro could be you know at least from an interest rate divergence perspective you should have the euro strengthen against the new zealand dollar so what's causing the new zealand dollar to you know go to the downside in the euro to weaken evil the euro is you know they're expecting some dovish um euro statement tomorrow all from a new zealand dollar perspective they're just clearing out a whole load of stock that have been built up below certain structures before then going to the upside um so it's it's uh it's that yeah trading against us that doesn't happen yeah it doesn't happen it don't happen at all according to um you know some some uh some traders anyways on youtube anyways um yeah so one of the two none of us know but what we do know is that if this if the if the they do go into a recession right then we have um a decent buying opportunity right depending on obviously the sell also as well you do have and many of you will know an unfair auction that does need to be you know filled at least potentially partially um could be filled before then um doesn't have to necessarily be filled completely um at this at this time but we could have a partial you know completion of um of an unfair auction and that is you know what could potentially happen there and again the data has to support the narrative right so um let's see what happens there but the new zealand dollar is expected is expected by all measures to go into a recession so why buy the new zealand dollar right um the australian economy is at risk of a recession as recession risks spike as rba p a rate seen at 4.35 and again just this narrative then you know the education i guess behind it that the more you hike interest rates is the more your economy contracts and to potentially go into you know a recession right so as the rba continue to hike recession risks increase so economies see a chance of a downturn 50 percent up from 35 percent in may narrowing of yield suggest curves um yield curve suggests resecking all but inevitable by the way i didn't know this but the um the australian economy right um has avoided a recession for 32 years crazy in it right they i think so outside of the first half of 2020 so apart from covid it haven't had a recession in 32 years but that's crazy um but um but yeah so again the more that the um the rba raise rates and not just rba all central banks hike rates the more they are seen and in fact it might seem to be seen as a negative thing but in order to get inflation down they actually need a recession right they need the economy to contract to bring inflation down so um it's crazy to think that central banks are actively um employing measures and hope that we can actually have what they call a soft landing where you know we get a contraction but not necessarily into some or maybe a mild recession but not into basically a deep recession a deep recession would be considered a hard landing so they're looking for a soft landing but also as well you have to understand that although we might be looking at the australian dollar you know and think into ourselves or they might be going into recession the question is always who is in the recession first or who's likely to go into a recession first who's in a recession now versus an economy that is you know um not in a recession or is least likely to go into a recession right so you have to always put that in perspective um and so and that's the reason why i'm really kind of a bit i'm a bit um um divided i guess on the euro you know because i know that obviously they're in a recession technical recession but also as well um it seems like you know the market is ignoring that which is a bit this is a bit of a it's a bit of a tough one to um to take in terms of you know understanding you know what you should know about you know economics 101 right but the market just seems to i think be so focused on you know what's happening with the dollar right and inflation and the fed it seems like any weakness in the dollar is just going to benefit every other currency right so um i think that's what's going on at the moment um it says i think if you're not buying ozikad or euro you're missing out yeah i did say them over the weekend remember last week i did say i was kind of on the fence with the australian dollar but then on the weekend uh video i did say that um you know just based off of interest rate hikes and how hawkish the rba are yeah the australian dollar you know has to has to be the buy right has to be the buy same thing with the canadian dollar um euro dollar working like i said it's it's it's a it's a bit of a strange one yeah pound pound is um is a buy as well but euro dollar i think out of the out of the pound the pad pound in the cad i would definitely say um pound the cad in the euro i would say the euro for me is probably the weaker out of those just based off of the fact that they're in a technical recession all right that's it you know i mean oh believe me i'm not missing it i'm waiting for that i'm waiting for a pullback you know i'm especially on that on that canadian dollar so i think that new zealand dollar's pulled back to a really that new zealand cad is pulled back to a really nice area so if if tonight the news comes out that the they've gone into a recession then that new zealand cad is a is a is a is a short is a short trade for sure um i don't it's outside okay i don't you can hear the dog yeah yeah you can see the dog's that's always distracting me i could kind of see um what was going on but um yeah yeah the dogs are yeah they're gone now anyways um right so australia recession risks spikes as um rba peak rate scene yeah so the australian dollar although the headline suggests a bit of negative you know sentiment when you compare it which is one thing that we should always be doing is comparing the um you know countries the australian dollar um is probably one of the is one of the better pairs to trade but also as well keep an eye on china and um they are actually cutting rates to stimulate their economy so um i really would like to be for me to be really confident in buying the australian dollar and i say confident i just mean that you know for me to kind of put a bit more money onto any ozzy trades i would definitely need to see um the australian dollar would i would say china um grow with you know and and support the the australian dollar because they're basically the biggest trade partners right so china growing would help australia massively in their economy and so if you get that then the chances of a recession in australia are probably going to be slimmer and they're hiking which then makes them a really really good buy so uh they do have a slowing economy um i did say last week that i do want to have i want to see china really start to grow before i start putting um uh increasing my position size on the australian on the australian dollar um so bank of japan so weida is likely to hold with bond market on his side for now so this trade idea probably dead in the water for now or if it if um if it does you know materialize it would have it would basically just surprise you know the whole market but there are things i'm going to talk about in a sec but ultimately ueda is dovish for weak pay election risk ueda's dovish tone suggests no change and third of cold economists see accounts of yield curve control move next month so basically two thirds think that um he's not going to implement any kind of yield curve control and so he's remaining dovish and one of the things i thought was interesting as well is that the carry trade right so yen carry traders cheer on the way the softly softly approach to bank of japan and so if you don't know what the carry trade is i will just read it for you right right here where carry traders basically take advantage of the difference in interest rates between two economies to borrow where the rate is low and invest where it is high so the lower interest rate is japan they're borrowing yen and they're investing in higher yielding currencies like the um you know the dollar the australian dollar the pound for example and what that does is that creates demand for the um for the for the uh carry right for the for the um for the higher uh bearing interest uh currency or just you know wherever they're borrowing to doesn't have to go into currencies you can go into anything else that yields um higher than what they're actually borrowing the money for and so the yen at the moment right is the only one right is negative the only negative yielding currency so why not borrow right minus uh you know point one i'm not i'm not even sure whether you can actually borrow it uh uh uh minus one i mean they're back ideal um but then you can put it into any of these currencies and so that's also what is helping the um the uh the yen to weaken right and it says your low yields where is it uh here we go there's low yields in japan and makes the makes the yen a preferred funding source that uh who is she we know a senior economist uh nli research institute at tokyo along with japan's trade deficits demand for carry trades will limit any strength in the yen so um so yeah that's pretty much where we are with uh with the yen so don't expect to buy the yen anytime soon right but also there's this goldman bumps up japan christ forecast to widen gap with bank of japan so goldman sacks pushed off his inflation projections for japan driving them further above the central banks forecast and essentially we're going to get ruling out the possibility of price growth slowing beyond sorry below two percent in the coming months as policy makers forecast so what does that actually mean it means that in fact as inflation if goldman sacks is right about inflation right and inflation goes higher in japan it means that it puts pressure on radar that adjust yield curve control so although he might be dovish right now if inflation starts to come up and his target of two percent you know it's further and further away as inflation goes higher then this has to be implemented which then they have to strengthen it's going to strengthen the the yen because they can't afford because what is inflation really basically inflation is a is a devalued currency right so they have to implement measures to try to strengthen the currency so this yield curve control is designed to weaken the currency so if they take that away then prices should appreciate back down to the two percent target so let's see what happens there right so we have a dovish waiter any inflation i think that comes in for the japanese yen is going to put pressure so here we go so start contrast goldman's inflation view is much higher than the bank of japan's for this year look at goldman sacks i think four in fact is going to go up to three point eight percent and if you think you've got problems now yeah that's going to be um uh core cpi yeah it's gonna it's going to be um problems for them anyways uh so there's that's that's uh japan government's uh shunting dirty work on inflation to bank of canada cibc says so economists argue pairing back spending with lessen great pain and it's not too late to consider a fiscal policy cliff and basically the bank of canada will have to keep rates for a higher for longer and less governments do more to dial back their spending one of the country's largest commercial lenders are warned and so um pretty much the bank of japan is likely to continue to hike rates um it typically isn't a one and done um unless they explicitly kind of say so but um i think i think to try getting inflation back down and placing in canada isn't actually that bad it's actually quite low one of the lowest um outside of like you know the swiss frankenem and uh japan but um they definitely still double what their target is so they still want to get it down to two percent and if they can continue to hike as the economy supporting those rate rate hikes then i think that's what they're going to do to get inflation back down to the um oh my lord anyways um yeah so there's that swiss frank news is hard to come by um quite rare really but um this is the latest news temp of june swiss national banks fight to tame inflation not yet done central bank chief says and it says we can't exclude a further tightening of monetary policy i think he's jaw boning um the central bank chief comments in interview with son tags zaitung so um it says there's more work to be done to tame inflation in switzerland according to the chief's uh country's chief central bank and there was something in here which i thought was was interesting um yeah he says basically this is a new phenomenon he said but we can't allow this to fight to stop us fighting inflation because then inflation would only accelerate even more and we would with a time lag have to raise rates even more uh jordan said everything speaks for fighting inflation as early as possible so even though you know they've they've come back in fact so their um you know core inflation has actually come back to 1.9 you know he's thinking that inflation might you know he needs to get inflation even lower than them than what it is so that's um that's interesting but this is a this is definitely worth a read i think i'll put it in the um the swiss bank channel yeah i did put it in here so it's in here as well so definitely have a read if you can and i think that is pretty much it covered everything yeah they said they got one more hike to come and he's and you know they're very hawkish which is um like i said it's typically a strange but if they think that they need to get inflation even lower then um then they're two percent and they're gonna hike then that's basically what they're looking to do so when it comes to the pairs what do we see um i don't think anything's really changed buyers could be euro uh new zealand should be long um alexander's welcome welcome welcome no no no worries mate no worries it's life but um you know welcome back and um hope you're doing all right so yeah euro new zealand long again this be confirmed later on um today with with a potential recession or not i think if the market if they don't go into a recession then the new zealand dollar is definitely going to be a temporary uh buy uh oh yeah we have a yeah um no we don't have a dog now but yeah but um but yeah we had uh something going on outside but yes so new zealand dollar um is is um could be a temporary buy if it avoids a recession um did it come through that loud in your um on your end guys the dogs come out that loud were they that loud you heard them really oh okay oh i didn't think they were that loud i didn't think you could hear them um maybe it's the sensitivity of the mic i'm using so um yeah so anyways so the new zealand dollar could be a potential buy simply because if they avoid a recession that's going to be positive for the um for the new zealand dollar if everyone is expecting you know them to go into a recession right and you can sense this in the forecast is forecasting a recession so new zealand um again it's probably a bit more on hold i'm gonna go with a recession so my bias is still to go long um you're on new zealand long pound new zealand at levels that actually that pound new zealand is a nice stop hunt setting up let me go to the uh pound new zealand here we are not nice stop hunt setting up so that's going to be driven by what happens um today very nice and we have new zealand had again my bias would be to the short side uh ozzy no not ozzy swiss had yen is a continued buy um ozzy new zealand a continued buy although again it's come up to a really nice area we'll move some if you're anticipating in fact some new zealand strength then yeah that's actually a decent area to look for uh some shorts but uh that could just be short lived if they go into a recession because then you're probably gonna see something like that um swiss yen yep new zealand dollar u.s dollar again on the watch list depending on what happens with both currencies today and some whitey today pound yen yep euro yen yep so nothing's really changed um in terms of um you know the buyers in the cells and looking at the divergences so it's pretty much buying uh the cash pound um the euro you can you can make an argument for buying the euro and selling the euro same thing with the dollar you can make an argument for both but the clear buyers i think of the canadian dollar the pound um yeah the canadian dollar and the pound i think it'd be definitely the clear of buyers um and the clear of his cells at the moment would be the yen and the um oh my days again one second yeah next door um anyways uh anyways uh yeah so that's pretty much where we are talk with the most please oh hilarious hilarious Daniel um yeah so so those are where we are in terms of uh buyers and cells the cells are pretty much the new zealand dollar um out and out cells anyways the new zealand dollar for now and the japanese yen so um there was a question there was a question i had uh from somebody so uh question was highly on i think i'll go at this today basically um who was it again who who was it who messaged me were they are they in the room uh was it it was harold yes so harold said to me um you know question highly on do you know why the swiss is stronger than the euro and the pound and basically i thought i'm scratching my head a little bit and then i had to look at the charts and um one of the things i would say to everybody just as a reminder is always zoom out to the daily time frame chart i know i say this all the time but you know maybe some people don't um aren't in the group as as often um maybe missed the message but um if you go to for example the was it the pound swiss right so the pound swiss if you zoom out it gives you perspective so you could say you know would we really say that the the swiss frank is is strong against the pound no in fact we're up at a level that would be considered actually um expensive historically for the for the british pound and cheap for the swiss frank if you obviously considering you know why the swiss frank um and so you know the swiss frank being um you know expensive or or falling or strengthening against the pound then made me think to myself well it can't be you know in a higher time frame it's got to be at the lower time frames but then you know uh that freighter um i was thinking that they must have bought at the highest they must have bought somewhere around there because later in the conversation they were wondering why prices were doing something like this so what i would say is whenever you're taking a trade yeah is zoom out first and see where you are right see where you are on a bigger picture and then from there what you want to do is you want to draw your demand zones right draw your daily demand zones and then decide you know then you want then instinctively you should kind of know that this is going to be an absolute low this is an expensive area so any pulled backs into an area here should be um considered you know either fair value or you know more more of a cheaper area right and so try not to just fail one you know chart 30 minute chart zoom in only have maybe around about 20 30 candles on your chart as well zoom out always zoom out to the daily so same thing with the um with the euro swiss euro swiss we've actually been in this auction for about what two three weeks now so we've you know talking about the swiss being strong against the euro when we consider how many days was that sorry um we've been between in this for the last 36 days right 36 trading days okay so it's been a while uh 10th of may since we've uh been in this auction so um you know because we see a pullback for example on an hourly time frame or a 30 minute time frame today does that make the swiss frank you know strong against the um against the uh the euro well not really he's just the the natural you know aggression and movement I guess of of price when we consider that's a bargain that's expensive so now we're pretty much down to fair value if anything we should be looking at this as you know if there's a setup somewhere around here as as a nice buying opportunity for cheaper than buying up at you know potential highs so this is obviously the ultimate you know bargain or cheap price and um yeah just try not to not to get drawn into day setups where you're buying at daily highs or weekly highs and just zoom out that's what I would say um Malcolm uh says can you look at New Zealand swiss I can New Zealand swiss right so looking at the daily so again where are we I'm always thinking about like clearly the analysis of right I'm always thinking about where are we in terms of um you know the auction where's price contained between you know obvious highs and uh obvious lows and so you know looking at where we are we can see that this is obvious high this is obvious low and price has been contained between that right and so where do you want to be a buyer um personally I'd rather be a buyer at a swiss frank over in New Zealand but that could obviously again change because if the New Zealand do avoid a recession then there's going to be some positivity around that New Zealand dollar New Zealand dollar has to be revalued except so what again I my personal thoughts are that the market is just basically taking out a lot of stops above you know certain levels drawing traders to go long before the news comes out unless they're going to be wrong yet again because they have been wrong quite consistently these forecasts um when it comes to where are we now where did I put that uh that forecast oh it was New Zealand yeah growth rate they have been quite wrong in these the consensus in the trading almost forecast so um I wouldn't be surprised if it did come out positive to be fair but if I'm going with the consensus I'd have to believe that um um you know the the market is just taking out a stops and be drawing traders in to go long because by buying if I want to be a seller yeah I need buy orders so if eventually I think that you know obviously prices should be down here within the next you know week or two or month or two so I need first of all I don't want to be buying at lows yeah I want to buy at lows I want to buy at a better price and secondly if I need seller orders and to fill my book then I need enough liquidity which is the buy orders and so what happens is that not only do I take out the stops below there because if anyone who's gone short here their stop loss order is a buy above the market and then what happens is is that as prices go beyond that takes out the stops it draws in more buyers because you've got breakout traders going long and everyone starts to you know say the trend is your friend and you know they start to buy now but who's taking the other side and who's been able to buy it cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper is the institutions so they're only they're on the other side of these trades some people will make out with some profit good for them but ultimately all they're looking for is liquidity you know I mean for them to buy in mass in anticipation of a recession and that should happen this is what the plan should be right this is what we should know about you know the economy and how fundamentals work on price now it's not 100 guaranteed nobody knows what that is what I think is happening if it doesn't happen it'll be um if there's a recession let's say for example when prices still go higher again I'll just scratch my head on that one there's got to be some some other detail that I'm probably missing but um but from a macro level that's what should happen because you know when you look at you know other current season use and you think to yourself well you know fundamental wise why did for example price go like this why is price gone like that over you know with the pound yen over the past you know three four months why is that can anyone hazard a guess can anyone hazard a guess as to why we've seen this really nice trend on the pound dollar and pound yen oh the trend is your only friend yeah that's what people believe um bank divergence yeah pretty much exactly it's bank divergence right where you've got one central bank hiking rates which is the bank of England and then you've got a central bank that is been holding rates even though in that time there has been talk of potential you know yield curve control it never materialized and so you pretty much see in that happen whereas the bank of England has just had persistently high inflation you know more hikes are being priced in and you're just seeing something like this and so you know everything can be explained typically or usually with fundamentals um and hopefully you know the fundamentals do play out in the trades that we're in right but if it doesn't what can we do we just have to stick with the fundamentals and hopefully price does follow um you know um uh value and um and the like uh yen exactly yen not hiking yet that's exactly it they're the last central bank to actually hike right so yeah but yeah with um with the uh sorry going back to the New Zealand swiss yeah going back to New Zealand swiss I think you still eat all this again I would say from a buying perspective I think the only real way you're looking at a technical buy is if price is either come up to that supply zone there because I can't see anything else at the moment not on a higher time frame or unless you're going to go down to something like a five-minute time frame or one minute it starts to look at this as some sort of stopping I think that's the only way you're gonna kind of see any kind of uh any kind of setup which actually it looks all right yeah and you just uh it clears make it a bit clearer so you've got what time is it now all right I've got to go soon so you've got one touch two touch the retouch quite accurate nice strong move and then you've got potentially a complex stockpunt where the institutions right now again this could play out like this where you've got a lot of buying of the swiss franc above the market higher right because this was previously sold as a um a bargain for the swiss franc yeah how do we know that it was a bargain for the swiss franc because prices did that yeah so when prices came back to this area this is going to be this is this is these are prices beyond the bargain right this is beyond cheap how do we know what we don't know what we can do now is basically wait for you know the new zealand dollar to go into a recession for that to be proven but there's definitely a lot of liquidity above this area that's being grabbed a lot of trade is going long a lot of transactions being made and then if the recession is confirmed then that is going to be a very very nice trade very nice trade uh right let me just go back from some of the feedback through the messages yeah not hiking eagle says i think fed i think the fed will hold today and hike in july um yeah it's a tricky one at the moment it is tricky eagle because i don't know if you you probably might not be in in the room but we were talking about inflation measures and to watch out for inflation measures and the latest inflation measure which is producer producer prices inflation came down more than expected so that's the reason why you're seeing the dollar um you know kind of fall at the moment because any measures of inflation are gonna basically just point to disinflation do you know i mean inflation coming down which then pretty much means that the fed are less likely to hike at the moment though at the moment there is a 60 um or 59 percent now 59.1 percent chance of a a rate hike 25 basis point rate hike so it's my um it's not working yeah um so at the moment it is yeah they're still higher probability but again that's data dependent right so if inflation keeps coming down then that's gonna come down and if that comes down and the dollar comes down pretty much so yeah that's where we are uh so interesting point yeah it says man dollar is dropping how better save it they see uh the dollar yeah dollar index has gone down yeah see no demand no demand had that ppi been maybe came out as expected yeah it might have probably held but yeah i think the market is just uh evil loading up on dollars or looking to continue to sell those dollars um but let's see let's see what happens let's see what happens with that the US dollar can be can only be saved by talking yeah at the moment it seems like that right by by the jaw boning um so i think yeah any pullbacks if you're looking to buy the the um the euro dollar then i think on a daily time frame you'd have to wait for prices to come back to that 107s i don't know whether it will but you never know you never know but i still find it strange i still find it very very strange that although inflation is coming down oh although inflation is coming down um you know for the US that the market is kind of looked past the technical uh recession in in Europe but um but let's see what happens tomorrow because this could be this is where the supply zone is you could have i'm sorry you could have prices come into this zone here and then euro come out and pretty much say oh do you know what i am you know we are gonna you know we're thinking about thinking about causing rates the next time and then all of a sudden that starts to you know put a limit on how i the uh the euro can go right so there's that so although the dollar is at the moment we've got some negative sentiment you've definitely got to be careful about uh tomorrow's um ECB uh meeting which may put a cap on this and if it does then what you may find in the future is in fact prices start to auction between maybe the 108 80s 109s or something like that and you may see something like that until again something which either pushes prices to the upside you know some dollar weakness or actually in fact maybe some euro weakness but it looks like the moment i think if i was a betting man i would probably put my money on more of an auction more of an auction uh i don't trust ECB either exactly but i'm in agreement with you as well alexandros europe europe hike with a dovish tone yeah i think that's that is the case because the US economy is still as much as we say you know the crisis is showing and stuff like that when we look at you know when we look at