 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The best golf betting week of the year is finally here It is the master's turning tournament coming up this week at Augusta Scotty Schaeffler is a heavy favorite But a lot of fun names we could potentially dig into for this field for today We're gonna talk to branding a doula get his read on this year's masters talk about Augusta talk about Scotty Rory Rob all the live guys back here in the field as well to get you ready to fill out your card for the masters This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Brandon gandulla check him out on Twitter at gandulla 13 Find his work of Fandall research where he is a senior managing editor Of course my co-host on the heat check every single Tuesday breaking down that week's Golf betting and DFS outlines Brandon happy masters week to you. How are you doing today? I'm good. Love the love the masters. I know everybody does but I Don't know if it's cuz it's first in the year among the majors or what but signal of a signal of summer That's my my go-to is signal of summer first major of the year I think they can in virgins and like kind of honestly like not the most robust point in the sports calendar I think it's like a convergence of a lot of things that boosted up Yeah, just it I mean obviously it feels special. It feels I don't say more important than the other majors because I know everyone Has sort of has their preference, but I think it's also like how easy it is to watch and like yeah the app is great And just there's just nothing like it. Hopefully though the weather is is fine for Thursday It's but it's not gonna be No first half of the day, it's gonna rain. I think it'll clear up I think we'll see golf probably in the afternoon though. So like if you wanted Morning viewing during work that might be tough Which you don't ever like you know, I I didn't tell you this because you were busy But even last week I had it on like during work It's it changed honestly radically for me because like the previous stance me was I don't like I get distracted very easily because ADHD crazy The guy who talks really fast might have a hyperactivity disorder bizarre, but now in my office. I have a TV So I no longer require a another screen to watch it because typically I'm working on both my laptops simultaneously So it's hard to have it up now that I have the TV in front of me and I can put it up there I have actually been watching a lot Do you have you have two laptops that you don't have a monitor? No I thought we went through this like two years ago. I thought yeah, I thought about it Like it's not a cost thing. It's a I don't have a space in my desk thing. I Gotcha. Yeah. Yeah, and also like so this camera shout out Fandall TV plus and Fandall YouTube is like It's a little bit low So if I had a monitor it would block the camera and so just be like hey Like I just figured out and also throwing off the color balance on the the camera right now So we'll get rid of that but like there's a lot of excuses I could go through if I needed to You excuses. I know bizarre Bizarre a tradition unlike any other we're gonna talk to Brandon about Augusta talk about his very bets I fan dual sports book for this week to get you ready for the Masters in one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you would get your podcast a lot of Good stuff here in the field we talking a lot of mda NHL playoffs with Tom Vecchia once those get underway We're talking about the play-in tournament on Monday with Tom here on the show NFL draft stuff coming up all right here in the same feed so go search for Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify Don't forget to hit that subscribe button as well The first major is a tradition unlike any other and they dual is giving new customers an offer unlike any other to celebrate because right now new customers Get one hundred fifty dollars in bonus bets guaranteed with any five dollar bet That's one hundred fifty bucks to use on outright winners round leaders longest rise and so much more plus You'll get paid instantly when you bring home a major win this major season so don't wait visit fan dual calm Download America's number one sports book in swing for some green at Augusta must be 21 plus or 18 plus in DC and President select states first online real money wager only ten dollar first deposit required Bonus issue is now a drawable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat restrictions apply See terms at sportsbook to a fandal dot com Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1800 gambler over the fandal dot com slash RG in Colorado DC, Iowa, Kentucky Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5334 to an Arizona 188-789-7777 or the ccpg dot org slash chat Connecticut 1 809 with it in Indiana 105 222 4700 of the KS gambling help dot com in Kansas 177 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling help at Oregon, Maryland 100 gambler net in West, Virginia 105 222 4700 in Wyoming hope this year was a gambling helpline ma.org or Client or 327 5050 or 24 7 supportive at the two sets or called 187 70 hoping y or text open y in New York Now we'll talk about the field in the second here Brandon, but first let's talk about the course Augusta national You know a lot of things we could discuss here as far as which skills translate best But when you're looking at golfers looking at archetypes looking at histories What do you care most about when trying to find golfers who will succeed at Augusta? It is a bit of everything But that doesn't mean we have to complicate things Basically, there is one skill if you if you include driving as distance and accuracy if you include Irons if you include around the green play and putting as like five distinct stats There's one where you can be Not great and that's driving accuracy and it's because fairways are wide missing fairways isn't super penalizing At Augusta national, but you know, we talked about this yesterday on the heat check. It's not so much That you just want to be long off the tee either. There's a lot more that goes into Augusta than being the best driver in the field You know, you have to hit the greens you have to Get up and down whenever you invariably inevitably miss greens and with putting It's really difficult to make putts from beyond 15 feet data golf has a course table tool I don't have this number off the top of my head, but It Augusta national putt like putting from 15 feet is like is about as hard as it gets which makes sense and the data shows it Golfer quotes discuss it. It's not about making all of your 15 footers this week It's about not three putting from 15 20 25 feet So putting itself, I don't want to say it's not important. It is important, but it's not so much about Making everything that you look at because if you're doing that, you know, you're doing something that isn't done here Pretty much ever. So when it comes to which stats matter the most It's not that dissimilar to your average PGA tour course Where you like distance generally helps golfers and accuracy helps a bit less Irons are really important, but if you're really bad with around the green or putting You're going to struggle. It's kind of gets ramped up here And so I want like all around golfers this week. Those are basically the stars any time we get to a major You're not going to be like well his irons are bad So he's a good fit this week, right? Like that doesn't exist ever But you also are never going to get in a major, you know, distance doesn't matter at all Very very rarely, I guess but so for me, I want like my key stats are going to be based in ball striking I do want driving distance where I can get it. I Want strokes gained approach as my number one stat But also like statistically speaking according to data golf course fit tool While around the green play is not it's like half is predictive of success is driving distance Compared to other courses. It's like much more predictive. So stroke scheme around the green is kind of interesting this week So, you know, I talked around it. I talked through it The only thing that I can kind of live with Among the stars who I'm looking at betting out writes at shorter numbers The only thing I can live with is a lack of driving accuracy. So I kind of need it all especially at a course where course success in the past course history in the past is is about as predictive as we get so That's kind of how I'm viewing it this week See mentioned good all-around golfer as you mentioned course history and a golfer who has had the all-around play for the past Three weeks at least is Scottie Schaeffler because he finally figured out the putter and as a result Schaeffler is a plus 450 to win at Vanduul sportsbook and you understand why he won back-to-back events He finished tied for seconds in the other one there But putting is volatile and you know, it's a three-event sample of him using this new putter and things going well for him So I want to know how are you viewing Scottie relative to the betting market right now? So yeah at plus 450, that's a pretty hefty ask In it's not a full field. It is a difficult field, but it's also You know, we know that there are some names toward the bottom of the field that aren't Likely too content But with that when I simulate this one out, I have Scottie around plus 550 to win that's a pretty big difference in terms of you know between You know 29 to 1 and 30 to 1 is not as big of a gap is is plus 450 and plus 550 It's basically 18.2% versus 15.4% So pretty substantial there, but the thing with Scottie is I Wouldn't really fault anyone for just saying like I don't It's not that I don't see how anyone else is going to win. That's far from it About 85% of the time someone else probably should win Maybe 80% of the time if you're really high on Sheffler, but you know Scottie leads the field in Data golf's true strokes gained and true strokes gained Tita green over the last six months He's at a 3.28 Tita green Over the last six months with standard at 2.29. So it's basically a full shot. And then if you look at the putting it's Getting better since the potter switch with you know some some rounds racked up there He's at a point one three in this span over the last six months because he's putting better than he was and you know his putting was Not great, but it wasn't I wouldn't call it like Completely like atrocious. He's been a non disaster for a longer sample than just the three weeks yes, and so People like yes, he was he putting well enough to win Not for a while, but he wasn't He was putting himself out of wins because the T degree he needed to put okay, and he was a little bit below that so It's really difficult. I've also looked at him for a first-round leader I think he's 12 to 1 currently on Fandall sportsbook. I have him around 15 to 1 in terms of my first-round leader model I really can't see many angles of getting to Sheffler this week even though This is the easiest case to make for a golfer pretty much ever has a win here plays well here, right? That's ball striker great wedge player putting his trending up It's just you step back and look at the value of it, and I don't quite see it with Scotty this week unfortunately Yeah, it's not about him. It's about the number Like you can give full respect to Scotty and so be like now 450 is too short Like it happens a lot with when I'm looking at NASCAR stuff happens here with Scotty So like he deserves to be the favorite plus 550 and the Masters is a freaking huge number and that's what your model has it at Just not 450 so yeah, you know for respect to him It's not flukey, but not gonna get there, but there could potentially be some value in the second tier So aka just not Scotty when you look at the second tier for this week Brandon any golfers you like for outrides this week. I Like Xander Shafley, I am shocked. I am just blown away flabbergasted bamboozled I'm not calling him like Scotty Sheffler or anything, but his game is so complete and Sure, he hasn't won in About two years But you can't look at his profile and say this guy has no chance I would rather see someone in contention and just not convert necessarily or have other golfers Basically take it from him Then to see someone who is You know, hey, maybe one week out of the year he has it and he looks like he can't be beaten Give me opportunities at good numbers and that's where I see with Xander. I have him around 13 to 1 at this point in the week. So I still see some value. I know the number I Guess Tuesday yesterday when we were recording it his number went to 16 to 1 and it was it seems very short-lived So I think that there are people interested but Xander is just a phenomenal all-around golfer he's a Fantastic putter and over the last 50 rounds according to data golf. He is top eight in all three of The t-degree and stats in this field and he's 21st in putting with great Or you know, good splits. He's a 64th percentile putter from within 15 feet this year On tour, which is a it's just a number. I look at because it's predictive of long-term success Only he and and Sheffler are basically Top 10 among this field over the last 50 rounds in all three t-degree and stats and we know Xander is a good putter So I'm good with Xander this week. I know that you have interest in Xander as well Yeah, I took Xander when he was 16 to 1 earlier on this week and very happy with that I couldn't quite get to 14 to 1 if that were the best number you were to offer me We did talk in yesterday's show We had a full the betting and DFS breakdown of this event yesterday on the heat check fantasy podcasts over on the Fandor research podcast feed I did I do like Xander top five. Oh, he's shortened. Okay, so that's with ties Yeah, they got rid of the dead heat rules. So He finished. I still have it What's that if you scroll over Finn? It's at the oh top five without ties. I assume Yes So you had to pay dead heat rules and obviously that's a major factor to consider but Shuffle a three to one to finish top five and again dead heat rules could apply here But he's done that twice at August already. So I think that's my preferred round for Xander is three to one for a top five But I'm not going to talk anyone out of 14 to one I just maybe it's because I got 16 to one and it's like well I could have gotten 16 to one why bother 14 I did get 16 to one. So Um, I think I prefer the top five market right now versus the outright for Xander, but I think that either way Buying into him is something I'd want to do for this event I don't think I don't think it's wrong to go to like Xander to play really well, but maybe not win So I'm there with you But I think that eventually the variance is going to go in his favor because he's not he's not actively bad When he has opportunities to win it's just that he's kind of gotten unlucky Yeah, okay, so Xander 14 to one is where Brandon's going first. What about longer than that any You know second tier guys any other long shots you're eyeing for outrides this week? I have a couple um and You know, I'm okay with all of them because I like the numbers But I'm gonna kind of rapid fire some names off here. I have interest in walking Neiman 28 to 1 You got to look at His performance on the live tour, but if you do that, you'll see a lot of good numbers Data golf. I know I've shouted them out like a thousand times already in like 15 minutes, but It's for a good reason. They take Basically every major tour adjusts everything for field strength and it gives you a direct comparison and over the last Six months among golfers in this field Schaeffler Xander and Neiman all have 35 rounds under their belts Schaeffler's at a 3.27 stroking per round with Xander A full shot behind at a 2.21 But then Neiman is third at a 2.10 among this field over the last six months He is a ball striker for sure The only thing for me with Neiman is that I thought his I always feel like he plays really well at Augusta He did finish t16 Last year was his first kind of breakout, but I'll take that for someone as young as he is and as good as he is so And then according to rick gayman at rick run good on twitter Neiman's doing a lot of this with his irons on the live tour in terms of stroking. So love to see that But he's not the only one. We both like matt fits patrick this week. He's still 40 to 1 Two straight top 15 finishes at augusta eight consecutive made cuts dating back to 2016 for him He can gain distance The irons are never as good as I want them to be for a player, especially someone who like logs every shot You would just think he'd I don't know. I don't want to spend more time on irons But he's got a really good short game. He can get up and down and this is not a this is not the type of event Where you need to go 20 under to win because it's going to be in april I kind of need to be 12 under or so and I think that he has that Within his range of outcomes Taught me fleetwood as well 50 to 1. I've gotten I've gotten around to fleetwood I was kind of on the fence But uh t7 at valera this past week with good irons in driving one in jubi in january t10 at genesis as well three top 20s and uh six straight made cuts at augusta In his career my model has him at like 47 to 1 And so i'm fine. Uh, if this doesn't budge i'll take fleetwood Uh, do you want two more or should I just leave it be? Let's do it. Okay I've got to give options, right? That's right Uh sahiz the gallo we talked about him a lot on uh Tuesday's show um to win I think that he's in a really good position. I Very open to him though as a top 20 as well um But debuted last year with a solo ninth and he can just gain strokes with irons And putting that's that's the kind of profile that that i'm into And then the final name that I just want to mention is right below that. Uh russel henley at 60 to 1 He is not long off the tee But he has been able to gain distance in his career at augusta national Which just goes to show that maybe he doesn't gain distance off the tee at most courses because he Doesn't think the trouble is worth it or whatever, but he has been able to gain A couple yards per drive at augusta in his career according to data golf He's a fantastic putter from within 15 feet 85th percentile this year Great iron player when things are locked in so henley figala Uh, I do think that there's value for them as outrides, but I mentioned them as well yesterday for top 20 markets so those are the kind of the I guess it's a a six pack for me Of golfers that I like and I see some value on for for outrides Yeah, so to recap those is walking neiman 28 to 1 map. That's patrick 40 to 1 Tommy fluid 50 saw the gala 50 russel henley 60 I've not gotten a bet on henley yet, but I'd like to i'm looking top 10 potentially. That's four to one I don't mind that um, but I do want to find some route to access to henley because I have not gotten there yet and Broadly really like him. So I think that's the one i'm going to be looking to add if you're picking One of those long shots like let me say okay brandon you'd pick one. Who would you go to first? Uh, I mean are we considering like neiman a long shot in this? Yeah, because he was basically not zander Oh Yeah, I mean long shots are so hard to talk about. Um Because I don't know what what long shot means, but I guess I'd go I'd go Tommy. I think okay So fleetwood 50 to 1 is your favorite of the non zander outrides for this week. Yeah, okay, so That's where brand is going. I'd pick neiman of that group personally 28 to 1. Um Like he's not a value based on Data golf numbers the one caveat I would give there is I I use data golf religiously and I love them and I adore them I had smashes last year betting three balls against live golfers And I think they do get dinged in that model because there's a smaller sample on them So like mathematically what data golf does is smart Um, but it can lead to some live golfers being undervalued in their model At least based on my experience of losing money on three balls last year Uh betting against like brooks and stuff like that. So I don't I don't think it's like it's probably good math It's sound math, but I've found that sometimes they can be a little bit undervalued. So with neiman 28 to 1 That's where I'd be going personally We have a lot of non-outrides this week Brandon We've got like I had to scroll like 15 feet to like find the end of this menu for this week So looking at the non-outrides where you seeing value there Well, you know where I'm heading Uh Do you know where I'm heading? I don't Top in region. Oh, of course. I should have been like that. This is my favorite Yeah, that that is on me I like uh Younghoon on top asian golfer for this week. He's plus 280 against Um, or sorry, this is uh specifically top korean Um seawool kim tom kim and sung jm. So over the last six months uh on is Plus 1.21 strokes gained uh per round with seawool kim at a 1.05 and both kim Tom kim to clarify and sung jm in like the 0.6 range So that's a pretty big gap now over the last year It's pretty even But with the with how my model factor things in it waits those more recent rounds a little bit more So i'm seeing value on uh ben on has not played well at agusta in his career three missed cuts in a t 33 But he's never been This good of a golfer either in his professional career So I see value on him. I have him around plus 260 in this uh group Also top nordic player. I've got ludwig o'bear aberg Who could say he could say but then we still don't quite know um This is including victor hovlin, which is a little bit scary, but hovlin's form right now is not particularly great uh as well as torbjorn olasin and nicolai hoygard, but over the last six months Ludwig's at a 1.95 true strokes gained per round with hovlin at a 1.12 So it's like a 0.8 strokes per round gap here Hoygard and olasin right around 0.7. So it's a pretty massive gap. I'm not saying it's just a Like a head to head within this but you know, he's Golfing really well and he's a great player and he probably it's going to be a great fit at agusta in his career So when I send this one, I have him around plus 135 Um that he shortened to plus 135 just now He is plus 135 Okay. Well, all right. I still like it. Uh This is the danger of of doing these Someone must have been seeing my notes. Uh, because I have but He's a great. He's a great putter too. Um 64 65th percent off from within 15 feet. So Maybe keep an eye on that one, but Ludwig I want to get he's a he's a kind of a golfer I want to get exposure to and I think this is actually a pretty reasonable approach for him Okay, so those were bent on top korean 3 to 1 Maybe Ludwig Relanthins before thursday plus 135 right now to be the top Nordic player But keep tabs on that one to see it potentially you can get some value Later on there any other non-outrats or should we talk round one specifically? Let's go round one. Okay. So we can talk first round leader We can talk first round three balls. Ah, they're up, you know, I didn't see a lot of value personally I wanted to get the tony fina one He was plus 115 at vandal and he is now even money boo. Okay, so I can't I didn't find any three balls I like personally which is a tragedy for me as you would know But for round one specifically any bets you want to target there? Uh, well now I'm nervous that these odds are moving And actually one that I'm going to mention you have pulled up here and it did move but it moved In my favor, which I'm with uh, denny mccarthy against cam davis and camila vegegas um Danny mccarthy plus 110 talked about mccarthy as a value play from a daily fantasy perspective, but I have mccarthy minus 104 in this matchup. He's at a 1.39 true strokes game Um over the last six months with davis at a 0.25 and vegegas minus 0.4 Uh, so I see the value on that even though mccarthy kind of has an uphill battle to to play augusta well We can see golfers with his skill set though play well if he plays within himself And another three ball. Uh, steven yager plus 140 Maybe still Uh over danie willett and austin ekrout will it's coming back from a shoulder injury hasn't played since the fall Um, yager and ekrout are kind of close in terms of long-term skills. So it's a little bit, uh, nervy, but yager Came out for me at plus 130 in this matchup You're scrolling so much to make me I could just search but like then it like leaves the the scroller or like the the Man, I just checked this someone stole your sins. I did I literally did 130 for you exactly, right? Yeah, I did literally all of this like 10 minutes before the show too because I was behind so these these just recently moved Sorry about that everybody So no yager for you at plus 130 then just uh because that's exactly where it should be Probably not. Let's check out these other two head-to-head. See if these move. Okay. I have two more Okay, uh adam shank over cam davis. Tell me his odds and I'll before you this round one. This is round one. Okay. Yeah Um, that's 72 holes. I'm gonna have to okay. What's what's the name? I'm just gonna search Adam shank There we go against cam davis. Oh babies now we're cooking Minus one. He's my all right. He was minus 115. So let's go. Oh, okay. Okay So over the last six months shanks at a point six eight Strokes game per round davis point two five neither Neither agree like irons right now But there's a big overall skill gap and shank for me came out at like minus one 23 or something So I'll take that and then what about taylor more and ryan fox Uh, that's 72. There we go. Uh, taylor more is minus 140 against ryan fox. Okay, never mind. He was minus 125. So Cheese, okay, and I have more of my minus 138. So it's not that far off, but okay We couldn't record early enough so almost on the number for more for ludwig and for Yeager, which is just great But the ones that did stand the one that brain and does still like Denny mccarthy round one three ball against davis and vegas that is a plus 110 adam shank round one over cam davis Minus 110 these numbers move fast. Um It's tough, but hey that's still two round one specific bets to get into The bend on one for top korean still three to one and all the outright. So still a good selection regardless, right? I think so. Yeah, and uh, you know I know not everyone wants to have a totally full card or anything, but there are good I think there's some value in terms of the What you would consider a long shot at 28 to one. I kind of see I can see it that way um But with neiman fleetwood sahith henley Bits, I think there are some options. So maybe look into them a little bit more And see where you want to go. But for me, uh I'm hoping it's sander week I am as well financially We did talk more betting as mentioned on the fandal research podcast feed the heat check and we do that every single week So if you like some golf betting you decide you enjoy the masters you enjoy gustin You want to hear some golf betting thoughts every tuesday check out the fandal research podcast feed? Why are you laughing? I just I did I was doing all of these like matchups round ones at like 950 and we started recording at 10 and uh So I couldn't have done much else unless I was just watching these odds as the as we recorded. So I just feel I feel bad because change your passwords. Uh change your passwords to make sure there's no one inside your your sins You know, that's my word of advice to you cyber security is important brandon We've had trainings on this for work. So just so you know, take that seriously brother Uh, but again, if you want some more betting thoughts, uh for this week and every week Go to fandal research podcast check out the heat check with me and brandon We talked about some more finishing position props that we liked as well over there So And then of course you want to play some dfs for the masters too full thoughts on that there as well Brandon appreciate the time. Uh, good luck to you the masters. Enjoy the golf and we'll talk to you again soon You enjoy it as well. Jim. Please watch. All right. I will I promise you can find brandon twitter at kudula 13 I'm on twitter at jim sanis. You can also find fandal research on twitter at fandal research tomorrow here on the show We're gonna have time vekia on talk about some nda and hl bets across a very big nhl slave for tomorrow So make sure you swing back by to get that and subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We'll talk to you all once again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network