 So some good action on tap for tomorrow, both long, short, RBLX shop. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. I tell you one thing, you know, years ago, any bear market scenario I traded, I mean, this is going back to years and years and years, the one common denominator of every bear market was that no matter what happens, okay, there's no way you can make money on the long side, right, that was the kind of the thing when everything went down, everything went down together, it drifted together and it drifted for a very long time. And this market and this, and again, I don't want to use the word bear market, but let's be honest, ever since we broke this whole upward trend here, going all the way back to December the 20th and this is where this whole round of selling started from, you know, we've been in a sell cycle, right? I think we could all agree on that. So we've been on the sell cycle from December the 20th and you can see here, the majority of days are obviously much more aggressive to the downside than to the upside. We've seen now two instances in a row. The first one was a Google earnings, the second one was an Apple earnings or something of that degree that we've traded up to the 200 day moving average, trying to reclaim major supply only to get crapped on, I say that the nicest way, crapped on and basically going below the ranges. Now again, we sprinkling some Ukraine, Russian invasion, some other nonsense, some Fed and the other thing, the scoreboard is obviously the scoreboard. But I tell you, this market is a lot different than any other bear scenario or sell scenario that I've ever traded because this is a market that when things get going to the upside and you have really, really strong, especially option flow and institutional money flow on that bias, you can do very, very, very well on the long side and that's what's really crazy and it's still trying to, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it years and years later, but that's kind of what we see here every single day. If it's not one stock, it's another. If it's not another stock, it's a third and this is how this sell cycle is playing out. A lot of days are very aggressive to the sell side and you can see 500 points, 300 points, destruction of equity prices. And then when you get a day like this and just when you think you're going to have some continuity and you have some follow through back to the sell side and all that stuff happen, the market comes back, the bulls come back and again, obviously they don't reclaim any major levels, but you can clearly see how bulls are coming back in their very individual specific stocks and doing really, really well with them. And today was a perfect example of how the stocks, the high flyers of 2020, right? Your UPSTs of the world, your DDOGs of the world, your Airbnb's of the world, they were, when the market was down 250, 275, 300 today on the Nasdaq 100, these stocks were going absolutely bananas and we'll get to individual pivots in a second. And the question is, is there such a thing anymore as a bull or bear market or is this strictly now, well actually, let me put it this way, is there such thing anymore as a stock market or is it now or has it has been now for a while just a market full of stocks? And that's where I think we are in right now. I think the thinking in this tape or in this market in general needs to change a little bit. I think the specific value for every single day is super important. Granted, look, you have to know where the market is. Are we underneath the 200 day moving average? Absolutely, until we get out of the 200 day moving average, risk is off as far as inventory goes, being holding big aggressive swing positions. Obviously we need to close back above the 200 day for the risk to be on. But I tell you, intraday, right? Intraday, you're getting some really good opportunities. And I think that the old way of thinking is, I think the old way of thinking of the market has to change. I think this is now over and even an old fart dinosaur like me who's been doing this nearly 23 years now, I've recognized this, right? And again, granted, I'm biased one way in my thinking on the overall market, I wanna see you play out that way. But more and more as we're seeing, especially in this first month, month and a half of 2022, it's very stock specific, it's very day specific. And the most important part, I think if I could lend a piece of advice to a new trader, let the scoreboard be the scoreboard. Let your research really dictate one day at a time, but one trade at a time. And I don't think we could afford one way or another to really paint ourselves in the corner and say, I'm not buying stock, I don't care what happens, the market's going to zero. Or the other way around, oh, there's no way I'm selling stock, I think the market's gonna rebound. Look at the traditional bull market. It's always found its way, so it's 52 highs. I think this is really a market now, a very specific nature. And the one thing that we're seeing is that even though the market could be very, very weak on one day, there's no follow through to that day. That day is very, those days are gone. Like I'll give you a perfect example, right? Just to give you an example, how the market has not followed through from macro setups, very tradable, right? Every single day is very tradable. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second, but I want to kind of give you an idea of what we're talking about. So if you guys remember a couple of days ago, Tesla broke down below this 880 level, right? This is a big, big level. Had a huge move down to 850. The next day was an inside day. 850 should have gotten taken out a long time ago and we should have been having this conversation somewhere between 820 and 793, right? That's obvious. Again, you have a breakdown. Usually a breakdown doesn't follow of a rebound back to the higher levels, but that's kind of where we are. Look at the flip side of the argument, right? Look at Apple. A couple of days ago, Apple reclaimed the 10 day moving average. There should have been no absolute way that Apple should have been testing the bottom of the range here at all. So that's kind of the one beef I think all of us have with the market. There's no follow through, right? There's no follow through in that specific day. A stock breaks out. It probably takes three, four, five days later for it to get a continuation. Reverse side as well. Stock breaks down. It probably needs two weeks for the stock to digest just to come back to the downward channel. So that's the one thing I could fix to make it better in this type of environment would be kind of the follow through. But overall, and especially if you are a bull bias trader, I tell you, if you do wait, right? If you absolutely do wait and just kind of wait for those days that the bulls are kind of in control of those levels, you're actually gonna do pretty good. And today, like I said, today was definitely the revenge of the high flying stocks, right? Airbnb came out with earnings, actually went red pre-market, just then absolutely exploded. UPST had this massive, massive move pre-market came in, right? And I'll show you the sneaky pivot here that turned out to be an absolute monster when totally nuts. A name like DDOG that, you know, we talked about a couple of days ago, I apologize, last night was in a video, I had to drive into Brooklyn to do something for my mom. But even a name like DDOG, they got rejected back to back days. Again, this was a high flyer in 2020, came out with good earnings, had a couple of days of digestion, finally broke out again. So today was definitely the revenge of the high flying names from 2020. And the question is what happens tomorrow? And when you look at tonight's earnings, and you'll see a little bit of a mixed bag. The video was the big one today, right? The video was the big one, there was some big call buying in the last couple of weeks. We saw some sell buys, some puts being bought today. And when you look at the earnings report, well, not bad at all, right? Not bad at all. And it's really not doing anything after earnings, just kind of sitting here, which basically is a good thing for tomorrow. But one good thing about what's happening on the video for tomorrow's session, we're either going to reclaim the 50 day moving average and absolutely explode into the two nineties level, or we're gonna turn around and retrace and go back into the bottom range. And if you guys remember the last video I did was Wednesday, just to give you an idea of how stocks are not following through. If you guys remember on Wednesday's session, right? This was the candle. I was waiting for that 236 breakdown that never came. And ironically, the next day, we had a really good trade back to the upside. That's how just crazy and moronic the market absolutely is in this tape. But hey, beggars can't be choosers. Like I say all the time, it's not the market we want, it's the market we have. So I kind of like the video. I'm gonna see which way it breaks tomorrow, but you can see how tight it is on the daily chart. If this thing can reclaim the 50 day moving average, could be very, very good. We'll see exactly how it acts. But look at some other names. Cisco acting pretty well tonight on earnings. You got AMAT, another semiconductor. They have a nice little pop here on earnings as well. But the one thing that the bulls are realizing, the names that miss their number are not exactly as good, right? Or as they should be, they're getting cleaned out. I mean, look what happened to Shopify today. I mean, these moves are on steroids. These aren't moves, just a little bit of move, 10, 20%, hold my beer. These stocks are going down, right? They're taking these stocks aggressively down. Look, and again, I think probably has one more day. I think any move tomorrow into supply should get shorted. And if it goes green to rent tomorrow, it should have a day too. Same thing with Roblox, right? Buyers came in yesterday for the 61 puts in size, right? They were not uncertain. Same thing as kind of a play on shop. Gotta watch Roblox tomorrow. If they gap it up into supply, it has to be sold. This thing goes green to red. It should have one more day of selling as well. But if you start looking at charts, you're gonna see some pretty decent looking charts to the upside. Amazon after the close, Dan Loeb, I forgot what the actual headline was, but Dan Loeb said, hey, I got some interest in making an investment in Amazon. Amazon is not bad. It never went down today. I wanna keep an eye on this thing, especially if it reclaims the 50-day moving average. Let's definitely keep an eye on this thing. Google had some pretty good call buying today. Short term, 20, what, 28, 2900 calls, right? First heartbeat since it's big split. So again, we're keeping an eye on that as well. Hold on, let me give you guys a couple other names here that I'm watching as well. UPST, really big move today. This thing needs to be bought on any dip tomorrow into rising 60-minute support or above days range. That looks good as well. Look at a name, for example, like A-N-E-T. Not usually a name that I would follow, but it really caught my attention because, hey, this is day two above the 50-day moving average. The most bullish thing you could possibly have. I'm gonna watch this thing for tomorrow. I don't think I've traded this thing ever, but the point is if it starts building above these two channels here, maybe this thing could wake up as well. So some good action on tap for tomorrow, both long, both short, RBLX shop. We wanna keep an eye on for day two selling. Names like UPST, names like Airbnb, names like Tesla, right? Maybe that Tesla on the top of the range. Maybe it finally wakes up. Maybe Amazon finally reclaims the 50-day moving average. We wanna keep those names on watch as well. So we got some longs we wanna watch for tomorrow. We got some shorts we wanna watch for tomorrow. But the most ironic part is all of this is still taking place well below the 200-day moving average. So again, I guess it's a new market. We have to conform or move to the side. So let's talk about today's session. Very, very aggressive session today. You had your NVIDIA dip in the morning, but here it is, right? DDOG 170 rejected, back-to-back days needs to build. DDOG, nice pop, nothing wrong with this pop here. Here's the 170, back-to-back days got rejected. Reclaimed the 170, went all the way up to 176. Really big, powerful move there. Wolf never confirmed, Tesla never confirmed. This was definitely the biggest mover of the day. UPST 138, 139 rejected several times, needs to build. Here was UPST, right? Here is the channel where we talk about 138, 139. You see this whole channel here, right? This is the 138, 139 channel. It just absolutely exploded, pretty much closed at the high of the day. This 150 area starts building tomorrow. It could see 160 very, very quickly. Keep an eye on that as well. Airbnb was really, really good. Buyer came in really aggressively for the 195 weekly calls. 180, 630 keeps rejecting on the 60 minute needs to build. This was a really, really good mover on Airbnb. Definitely my trade of the day. Here's the whole 180, 630 channel. It keeps on getting rejected. And once they cleaned up that cellar, this thing went pretty good. Almost a 192, really, really big move there on Airbnb. Even this crap, right? And this is what I mean. A pivot is a pivot is a pivot. You don't need to trade beta to trade pivots. Like here's a trade that I had no interest in, right? But I saw the chart somebody mentioned in today in the webinar, I said, hey, it looks pretty good, right? So 860 rejected and the daily supply needs to build. Again, this has nothing to do with me. I had no interest in this trade, but hey, the damn thing worked. Here was BKKT, right? Here was BKKT, here was the 860, right? Here was the 860. And the damn thing went to nine bucks. I don't know, is that good? 40 cents on a $8 stock, right? And I said, look, take on the wave. It's not Tesla, right? Obviously take on the way up. So nice move there. UPST went right to 150. I was joking around, you're rich, but hey, went to nine bucks. This is your thing. This is your thing. Airbnb, beautiful move. Went all the way up to almost 192. DDOG next stop went to 176. And Amazon, right? Amazon big levels here, 3,170, 3,180. This is getting triggered after the close. So we're gonna keep an eye on this thing for tomorrow. Tesla on the Fed move. At this point, I wasn't chasing this candle, but 919, 920 needs to build. Went to like 926. I like it for tomorrow. I really do. I wanna keep an eye on it. I don't know which way yet, but I like it. NVIDIA macro levels, 270 upside, 236 downside. It triggered 270, went to 276 before it sold off. So hey, it's a crazy market. It's sometimes unpredictable. It's sometimes really, really crazy. And you say to yourself, man, it just doesn't make sense, but guess what? It doesn't have to. Guys, our opinions don't matter. It's all about price action. Remember, it's not the market we want. It's the market we have. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all tomorrow.