 Let's jump over to our man Teddy keg's dad folks. We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. You can check out Teddy's Tiger Forex report folks. He puts out a new issue every Monday morning. He has updates throughout the week. When warranted, when you sign up for Teddy service folks, you can access it under the newsletter tab at TFNN. You can subscribe for $97 a month and folks basically that's 29 days that you get to try out this newsletter. It comes with a 30-day money back guarantee. If you don't like it, just let us know. You get a refund, you get the newsletter for 29 days. You gain access to his webinar, Forex strategies and fundamentals, what's behind the Tiger Forex report newsletter. And like we always say, man, it's an especially interesting time to put it lightly in the forex market. Teddy keg's dad. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy. First, I want to extend my condolences to David White's family and to you guys on your loss recently. I appreciate it, man. It's been around for almost decades, which is remarkable. Teddy and a young guy and it's with us all for a little while to put it lightly and I appreciate it, man. It's boy life sometimes, man. I struggle with the words, but I appreciate it, man. We didn't talk to you last Wednesday. I had some technical issues. I think, man, we haven't talked to you in a couple of weeks. It's been quite a couple of weeks in this market, Teddy. We talked to you on a very important day. I love that we talked to you on Wednesdays, man, because usually we got some good action going on. Where do you want to kick things off in this market, Teddy? Well, it's Fed Day. In the next couple of hours, it's going to be a ho-hum trade. I wouldn't have any big expectations until later, but we have what a storm we have brewing. You have unemployment, excuse me, inflation running in the UK that blew out expectations at over 10%, which is something that we've been talking about for a while, that their numbers are not getting better. They're only getting worse. That's going to have a big impact. We had the pound that spiked high today. I'm surprised that they're not selling off much more than they have, but I think a lot of that might be because it's Fed Day. Now we're coming into that window where until 2 o'clock, our time, excuse me, 1.15, Chicago time, we're not going to know anything. Now here comes the big question is, what are they going to do? Well, I would say they can't end their resolve. The way we were looking at before this banking crisis started two weeks ago was that we went from having them supposedly stopping raising to possibly cutting at the end of the year to having now all of a sudden half and three-quarter point raises for the rest of the year. I think that you're probably going to see today as a quarter point raise. I would be really shocked if they didn't do anything because that sends really mixed signals. The reality is that they have to keep with their program just for them to, I think, even show faith in the banking industry as it is. That's a whole other ball of wax. When you look at how this started, SVB, what's the irony of it all is one of the top guys, the Lehman Brothers, is one of the top guys there. This is a do-over. It also shows that the compliance at the highest part of the banking level is atrocious in this country. The fact that banks have zero reserves when they should be functioning on at least 10% in the fact that they were allowed to run at that and then the way they had. What bank wasn't liquidating their bond portfolios a year ago when they knew the Fed was going to be raising rates for a year? We've had the most transparent Fed in US history or at least in my lifetime. How could you make that mistake? You're either the biggest idiot in the world or you're just stealing and you don't really care about what you're doing. That's why I love talking to you, Max. I agree. I'm not sure if you heard Kevin Hink saying it's just to not hedge that, man. There's all this rhetoric and I feel like it gets played out in not even the financial media, man, like the mainstream media and that's a bad term in my mind. I'm talking about NBC Nightly News where you just get the headlines and yeah, it's like, oh, rates have risen and the banks are in trouble. It's like, man, if you know what's going on, it's like this bank was ridiculous. Teddy, I joke, my mom's retired, she's in her 60s and I said, I couldn't myself be a proponent. Of course, she has some fixed income, you know, but why would you buy in 1% yield long duration, man? Even as a retiree, I'm like, what if you need that money, let alone being a bank and doing it with $100 billion and not hedging your risk? It's like, come on, man. Exactly. Exactly. And I agree. It's like, I was trying to do these gymnastics and last night I finally got to it where I said, he can't pause, man, because there's no way that this banking crisis alone, folks, is enough conviction to squash inflation. And maybe it helps, okay? And maybe it does, but you just can't make that leap, I think, in the chairman's role with where we are, because we haven't gotten a lot of inflation data really since he spoke two weeks ago. We've gotten the banking crisis, but the inflation data has to come, man, before I think he can make that leap, which is, man, oh, man, we're going to get to find out. Now, where do you see... I think that this is really actually going to impact the interest rates for a while too, because think about this, if banks are all functioning on zero, they have no reserves, that means they can't borrow money from the Fed when they issue loans. How are they going to be lending to people in a mortgage market where rates are going higher and you're already having an issue getting them financed? But this is going to affect the dollar too. So as long as they stay on the path that we... Let's remove the banking crisis and go back to our theory that we were on before for the past couple of months, if they remain on the hiking basis, I think the dollar's going to stay firm. I wouldn't say it's very bullish. Now, we've been talking about divergence in the markets already for a while, and you can see it's very representative where the dollar index right now, a lot of the lift, it's where it's fallen back recently, was because of the rally in the Euro and the pound. If you look at a lot of the other currencies, they're very sideways. I mean, you look at the US dollar, Canada, even though it made some new weekly and monthly highs recently, it's still in a very big, wide range trade for the past six, seven months. That's the perspective I think people really need to start to look at. And I think we're going to still see this over the next couple of months because now we have so many variables globally, financially, it's almost like, how are you going to establish a true trend? So I think the long-term trends that are in place are going to stay somewhat together. The intermediate term, you're going to see, I think, more of a directionless trade, and you're going to have a lot of short-term moves, but in short lived as well. So I think that people have to be very cognizant of that. I'm not saying volatility is going down, but you can have high volatility in the market. It really doesn't go anywhere. And that's something I think we have to really pay attention to, especially when you look at a lot of the commodity markets and stuff like that as well, because, but people don't realize this. Right now the Fed is buying back these assets from the banks. And the irony is they're not even buying at the market price. They're buying at the prices that these banks bought them at. So that's a huge loss. So that's also a big liquidity factor. It's going to start being, you're adding lots of liquidity in one direction, but it's really, really going to draw out liquidity because these guys are going to be under the gun now. Do you think that they're going to be able to just be speculating and entering the markets and the derivatives markets like they've been doing? Absolutely not. They didn't hedge themselves what they were supposed to do. We know that they were definitely double leveraged on certain things where they were actually gambling. And that's going to be, I think, for volume in a lot of markets, it's going to start to tighten up in a big way. Yeah, it would have been pretty interesting to see some of the CEOs of these big banks watching. You think we're watching Chairman Powell's press conferences with interest folks. Nobody had any idea how important these banks were watching probably those press conferences, hoping for a pause or a pivot that they just never got, man, and they just didn't hedge. And great point about the market. Just look at the SAP from where we were. Pretty interesting, Teddy. We're basically right back to where we were when Chairman Powell spoke 15 days ago at about 4,040, 4,080. Meanwhile, we were approaching almost 3,800 in this market. So yeah, right back to where we are, and you're talking about 5% swings. Can you hang with us, Teddy, for a few minutes? Sure. Okay, we'll finish up the program, folks. We get a few more things to talk about. I want to talk about yields, interest rates as we go forward. We'll be right back with Teddy. Stay tuned, folks. Welcome back, folks. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Please check out the Tiger 4x report, folks. I've got a chart of the 10-year up here, Teddy, but I just want to talk a little bit about the general idea of where you think maybe rates may go. I know you look at the 30-year very well in the Tiger 4x report. Everybody's interested in rates. Quite the moves we've had recently. If the Fed goes 25, I know things can change a lot, but where do you see interest rates going from here? Do you see that number rising? Does the banking crisis put a halt on it, no matter what the Fed is doing in the interim, or where do you see? Quite the volatile market, to say the least. Sure. Okay. Well, the rally that we've seen started two weeks ago, and it started when the SVB first came to light. The bonds really rallied off. That swing low was locked pretty hard. Since then, it's gone nothing but higher and higher and higher. You had a $12 rally in the course of only a week and a half. Why? This was not because of any Fed number or anything like that. This is when I remember when it first came out, that weekend, people were like, oh, here's another bank. I'm like, this is not just one bank. This is a system wide. And they're like, why can't you just be that presumptuous on that? I'm like, the bonds made a move like that. This is big money. The big money knows what's going on. You don't have a bond move like we've had like that. That being said, even if the Fed doesn't do anything today, I think you're going to see yields going up because this has been an over-exacerbated rally. It was flight to quality. Now, things are calming down. Unless things get worse, that's the reality. Either things are going to get worse, and we're going to be like, oh, my God, this is such a huge problem, which they're going to cover this up and try and keep this subdued as much as they can. If that's the case, well, then the market has to go. Even if they don't raise rates, the pricing should be lower, meaning yields should be higher. And if they raise a quarter point or more, well, then that low from a couple of weeks ago, I mean, look out, baby, we're taking that thing out because the expectations will be that the Fed is still going to keep doing that. Yeah, we get to find out at 2 o'clock, man. Quite an interesting market. Teddy, I appreciate it. And that's good for the dollar too. Sorry, real quickly. No, I like it, man. Good for the dollar as well. Listen, I appreciate the time as always, man. It doesn't get much busier than Fed Day. Please, folks, right now, head on over to the front page of TFNN. Hit the newsletter tab. Try out the Tiger Forex report. 30 days of money back guarantee. It's a great time to do it. Teddy, man, I appreciate it. You have a great day. Thanks, Tommy. I'll talk to you next Wednesday, brother. Sounds great. Folks, stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next. It's going to be a great day in the market, folks. It's Fed Day. Don't go away. Thanks so much. Have a great day, everybody.