 Hey, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman joined today by Jim Sanis of Fandall who's here to finally talk about some football What's happening Jim? I'm excited Greg because it's like mid-August already and I've barely talked any NFL So it feels a little weird, but it feels right. So I'm ready to dive on in and talk about some mid-range guys with upside Quite honestly, I have a draft this weekend. So I need all the help that I can get I talked to you a little bit about it on Friday and now I need to go full-on and do it right now So let's talk about some of these mid-round players that you can get and have a little bit of upside It's exactly what you're looking for. These are the kind of guys that a lot people refer to as league winners So let's go over them. We'll begin with Karim Hunt of the Cleveland Browns who right now has an ADP around 56 and a half So you're getting them much later than you're getting Nick Chubb And I was just saying before we started that I feel like Karim Hunt's all the rage right now and Nick Chubb's kind of falling a little bit Are you one of these Karim Hunt truthers or do you believe that they can coexist both Hunt and Chubb in Cleveland? I think they can coexist mostly because we saw them coexist last year And the problem is that it didn't go well for Nick Chubb And it went pretty well for Karim Hunt especially relative to cost because we look at just those eight games in those eight games Karim Hunt 5.4 carries per game, but also 5.5 targets per game We talked a lot about this Greg about the value of targets in the half PPR scoring setting because a target is worth twice as much as a carry So even though Karim Hunt getting like, you know 10 or so opportunities per game He's still a double digit half PPR points in five of those eight games And he had at least five points in every single game So what you're getting of Karim Hunt is a player who has a weekly floor and an overall season long floor as well But there's also a path to a bigger ceiling which we don't usually get for guys in this mid-round because like If Karim Hunt gets additional carries on early downs that could give him a ceiling or is something where to happen to Nick Chubb It's a weird season, you know something could always happen for sure That could give Karim Hunt this bell cow type workload and in this offense that would probably be pretty sweet So I think that those that's one path upside The other one is that there's been some discussion around using Karim Hunt as the Browns number three wide receiver at times That would be really enticing getting both him and Chubb on the field at the same time So multiple paths to a ceiling for Karim Hunt that is included with that floor as well So, you know in the middle of the fifth round, you're not gonna find a lot of guys who have both a floor and a path upside Karim Hunt actually has two paths to upside. So I think even though he is all the rage right now He is a pretty popular name He's still someone who I think is undervalued So if we get the same the same usages last year sweet, I'll take it If we get something even better, he could be a guy like you said who could have a league-winning type upside I want that every time I can get in the fifth round and Karim Hunt gets me exactly that I hear you and that's what everyone else is talking about Jim, right? What Karim Hunt did at the end of last year how frustrating it was that Nick Chubb didn't play on third downs That Nick Chubb was really failing at the goal line so they kept giving the ball to Karim Hunt But I do want to throw this back at you because it's a new coaching staff the failures of Freddie kitchen are gone And you bring in a different coach who certainly has had success running the football in Minnesota And he wonder if he has the same opinions that Freddie Kitchens did which makes me wonder about the value of Karim Hunt and the splitting playing time between Hunt and Nick Chubb Yeah, I think that's definitely a concern But the flip way to view Kevin Sifansky is a guy who is willing to use his best players And we saw that with Irv Smith last year where the Vikings when they realized that they had a legit talent in both Their tight ends decided to go with more two tight end sets. What if they do the same thing with Karim Hunt? Using him as either a wide receiver I mean that they use Karim Hunt as a fullback at times last year I can see a similar situation happening this year So I think that you could view it that way But the other way to view it is that we could get Karim Hunt in unique usage and potentially at an even higher snap rate this year And I think that that's what's enticing to me So there are some potential pass-on failures Maybe the floor not as good on Karim Hunt as perceived, but I think with those upsides being there I will still take even a slightly decreased floor just because of the upsides are so sweet Of course, league-winning upside here in the middle rounds for Karim Hunt That ceiling is high enough that he can win it all for you Draft Karim Hunt on draft day Moving on to the wide receivers here, Jim I get to Marquis Brown, another incredibly popular name among everybody Like Karim Hunt and Hollywood Brown are two of the most popular sleepers, if you will That you could draft in the middle rounds because everyone saw the upsides for both of these guys last year And Hollywood Brown started at the beginning, started in that first game And now he's completely healthy and he's gained some weight and he knows the rigors of the NFL season Everybody's in on Hollywood Brown And yet his ADP hasn't risen, I think, as much as many people expected What is, I guess, the floor for Marquis Brown? I think that the floor is similar to what we saw last year where he has these pop games but also has a lot of disappointing games And I think that that is definitely a risk with Hollywood Brown So for comparing him to Karim Hunt, I think that the floor is lower on Marquis Brown than on Karim Hunt But there were a lot of things working against Marquis Brown last year You mentioned the injuries, that was one thing There was also game flow because the Ravens were up like 41-0 at halftime on a good number of teams When that happens, you're not going to use a guy who was banged up You're not going to use a guy who's had these injuries You're not going to throw the ball at all So those were a couple of things working against Marquis Brown In addition to the fact that he was a rookie learning the ropes in the NFL But now, no longer a rookie, you're hoping at least that the injuries will not be there Those are two things that could swing towards his favor this year I'm not expecting the game flow to totally be in his favor But it might be better than it was last year if the Ravens play a more competitive game So potentially two of three or maybe even three of three things working against him May not work against him last year Remember last year, Marquis Brown played at least 70% of the snaps in just four games across the entire season He still had 20% of the targets in the games that he did play So still, even when we don't take out the games where his snap rate was super low He still got a healthy number of targets A lot of those were downfield And I think the biggest indicator of what we could see out of Marquis Brown this year came In their playoff game because they took the reins off He was healthy for that game and Marquis Brown went nuts 11 targets, 126 yards And I think that we're not going to expect to see that every game this year But if we get the leash taken off There is the potential for him to have those pop games that he had more regularly than he did Maybe we'll still see the down games where the Ravens get up big early and he's not involved in that time But if we can get more pop games, you can definitely take that downside as well So I think that the floor here definitely, you know There are some concerns if things repeat themselves if he gets hurt again Stuff like that But the upsides if he's healthy and if they pass a bit more are really fun We're taking AJ Brown at pick 42 but Hollywood Brown is going to pick 64 I think they have pretty similar concerns So if I'm going to take a risk on someone with some volume concerns Give me Hollywood 20 picks later with similar upside Two players in AJ Brown and Marquis Brown that have the ability to go off at any moment What the ADP says Marquis Brown is going 20 picks later, as Jim just described I will also take that upside 20 picks later The value is clearly there The pop games are also going to be there It's just a consistency that we have to question But at this price is what we're selecting on draft day One final player to mention and this is the one I'm almost most intrigued to talk to you about Because no one's talking about Christian Kirk We get it Deandre Hopkins is with Arizona now Larry Fitzgerald is a Hall of Famer And then you have Christian Kirk who I think if Deandre Hopkins wasn't in Arizona Well, we'd be talking about Kirk just like we're talking about Hollywood Brown He said Hopkins is there and Fitzgerald's role is solidified Sure Kyler Murray is like yeah, we're going to have three 1,000 yard receivers this year It's a lot easier said than done I will mention that we have a lot of fantasy insiders describing that Deandre Hopkins's Targets are going to go down Which could mean well Christian Kirk's targets go down also Because Hopkins is now in play A lot of question marks surrounding the Arizona offense And the wide receiver position specifically Christian Kirk Who right now is going at pick 88 Yeah, I think Greg a lot of times we think we know more than we do When it comes to these situations Christian Kirk going at pick 88 Kind of assumes that his target share will go down a lot From where it was last year and that could very well happen Like there's a reason that his cost has gone down Deandre Hopkins is really freaking good and that the Cardinals are smart They will funnel a lot of targets his way But Christian Kirk also pretty good too And I think we can forget how good his usage was When he was healthy last year and the games that Christian Kirk played He had 24% of the teams overall targets and 33% of the deep targets So he's not going to get there this year Because Deandre Hopkins is there and again they should go that way But if we give him 20% of the overall targets And about 30% of the deep targets in an offense That could be high faced or high paced Could be efficient and could throw the ball quite a bit That's still a lot of juice for pick 88 So yeah, we could see things happening Where Christian Kirk's volume goes down a good amount Maybe he doesn't get the same target share as last year That's probably going to happen But you know, it's also a new offense for Deandre Hopkins Christian Kirk is a young player who has performed well In his two seasons in the NFL and is on an offense We want to get exposure to because of the potential that they have With their pace and with their potential for efficiency So sure, you can pay the bill on Deandre Hopkins, Kenyon Drake or Kyler Murray But instead you can get exposure to this Cardinals offense By taking Christian Kirk at pick 88 And personally with the floor that he has Of getting the number two wide receiver And a fast paced heavy pass offense I think that's a good floor And there's the potential for much more If things don't shake out the way we expect them to From a target share perspective So again, getting a good floor But also a path to a better ceiling and exposure Cheap exposure to a good offense I'll take that every day So Christian Kirk, I think where he's going Is kind of a no brainer target for me You use a lot in DFS, right? Specifically baseball, which we've been talking about Where you'll go to course field And you'll just take the cheapest option, right? Rather than necessarily paying up for a Trevor Story Or a Nolan Arnato Instead, you get somebody cheaper That just happens to be there A Cole Calhoun of Arizona is there, for instance That's what we've talked about recently For Christian Kirk, it's the same type of model You don't have to pay up for Deandre Hopkins Or Kenyon Drake or Kyler Murray You guys are going the first three, four rounds of your draft Instead, you wait to pick 88 And you get a Christian Kirk Who certainly showed the ability Last year to be a big time fantasy contributor And now he's cost you less than we ever imagined And I think those big time fantasy contributions Are still on the table That's the type of player you're getting with Christian Kirk There's a lot of question marks around Arizona But what we do know is You want a piece of that offense Christian Kirk is the cheapest way to do it Let's draft Kirk on draft day There you have it, Jim Those are the three middle round guys That, well, they could really pay off And give you big dividends on draft day We appreciate the time Good luck in your drafts Thank you, Greg Good luck to you and your draft as well Looking forward to talking more NFL with you In the very near future Absolutely, it is going to be a ton of fun I'm learning every day I'm adjusting the rankings constantly As soon as we hang up Christian Kirk going up Just for the record We appreciate the time For Jim Stonis, I am Greg Sussman Thanks so much for watching Good luck, everybody And we'll see you tomorrow For another edition But the fans will hurry up