 Although week 13 was a fun one for real football the DFS side of things not nearly as fun because not just a lot of key upsetting quarterback injuries, but also a lot of just bad Provences from running backs where there was almost no scoring at that position on the hole We're gonna break down what that means going forward the impact of these key injuries and get you set for the week 14 Main slate over on Fandall by taking a look at salaries over there This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week 13 is largely in the books. How you doing today? Well, not too bad. I'm not the best week for me with how my lineups fared, but we had some fun games I got to Show my wife another Vikings game It's kind of a bit now where I I walk upstairs from the gym When the Vikings are inevitably got something weird going on I say you want to see a crazy end to another Vikings game and then So we got one of those but it happens every single week. It seems like yeah I bet the jets Oopsies, yeah, it was a weird week for sure Like I had a I think probably my worst week of the year if you exclude the sunday night single game slate like Just running back was bad And if there is a week of running back is bad given my tendency to always To a fault have running back in the flex on Fandall I'm not gonna have a good week and that was the case this week. So I made some mistakes Um I don't think it was just like variants like it was a week where You needed to capture upside and I didn't pick the right guys to have upside I knew that I was trying to find upside. I just was not successful in that endeavor So we'll break down what went wrong what we can learn from it What we can do heading into week 14 and hopefully get you set to uh, at least for me I'm gonna try to bounce back in week 14 But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast team wherever you get your podcast We'll have week 14 full preview coming up on thursday before then though tom becchio So talking nvad fs every weekday get that by subscribing to the number fair daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well looking to get more out of the nfl season Well now is the perfect time to download faddle america's number one sports book because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the faddle sports book app It's safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards Plus faddle even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets when you join faddle make every moment more with faddle an official sports betting partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus in select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is not with reliable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.faddle.com gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler over the faddle.com slash rg In arizona 1 800 next step or text next eftify 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in uh, kansas ny elming 1 805 2 2 4700 or in kansas kscambling health.com in louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in mariland md gambling health.org in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y or in west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Let's kick things off here with the biggest headline of week number 13 that of course is unfortunately the jinny garoppolo injury He broke his foot and is done for the year according to kyle shanahan brock purdy will take over a quarterback purdy In relief of garoppolo on sunday average 0.06 passing net expected points per drop back 8 out of 5.3 yards. That is 2021 jimmy esk not 2022 jimmy's been a bit more downfield heavy this year Uh completion percentage over expectation negative point nine percent for purdy Debo samuel had 10 targets in purdy christian mccaffrey had nine brandon iuk 7 mccaffrey specifically had a really big roll here 17 carries 10 targets 146 yards in scrimmage so purdy is a downgrade from garoppolo for sure we can say that definitively But mccaffrey seems like he'll get pushed now given they kind of don't have any choice but to lean on him Maybe they lean on debo a bit more Is the downgrade from garoppolo to purdy big enough for you to push mccaffrey and debo out of play at their likely salaries Uh, it lowers them a little bit and it makes it a little bit more, uh Script dependent, you know, we we talked about mccaffrey having some interest there, but didn't quite, you know Fully rank him, you know, I'd say inside like our top six unless I'm speaking on a turn there for you I've been, you know For any long-time listeners still find it funny, but I've been tracking debo's usage and find him interesting Uh lately, but It's it's not really a situation that I'm going to envision a whole lot of spots Where I'm actively targeting these guys and I can't really think about this offense without Like looking ahead specifically to what what they got next week and they play the bucking years bucking years will be on a short week But that total is 37 and a half points. I don't know how low The salary for mccaffrey would have to be For me to want to load up on him And I'm also not going to stack that game And so I don't really Envision away that I'm going to have much interest. So name me a salary for mccaffrey Because I think he's the most interesting talking point because he's a running back And it's a lot of usage too. Um, so okay a lot of usage For a running back 80 percent snap rate 78 percent route rate for a running back last week. Yeah, um And he's in a dynamic or uh, sorry not He's he's using dynamic ways. Yes. Yes. Yeah He is using dynamic ways. Um so he's kind of like You can you can push back on this cop if you want But I would say that he has shades of jonathan taylor But in a different like routes to the way he's used and I think better usage If we have jt 85 or so, um, I would say mccaffrey Even with the downgrade a quarterback if they're going to use in this way should probably go 88 and If you were to say no, jim, you're wrong. He should be 83 I I'd have a hard time pushing back on that But I feel like with the way he's used 88 is probably an appropriate salary even after accounting for a groplobing out so I don't know what your numbers have like the buccaneers Uh, but uh in a in a neutral situation I'd say about 85 in this game specifically with such a low total. Yeah, that's probably 83 Yeah, I wasn't thinking specifically about the buccaneers, right? I I would say that bumps now to 85 for me So I I guess what it's sounding like we're hoping for is we're probably not going to play a whole lot of mccaffrey for week 14 Yeah, just just weird to wrap my head around saying week 14 like looking ahead for just next week, but Uh, maybe the rules great again the production not quite there. I don't know if they play in the future I don't know they would play but i'm open to it But only in better games because I would I would I would worry That they're often struggles Yeah, I like purdy is he's like he's kind of bailey zappy-ish in a lot of ways where physical limitations, but he's like smart um, like His like first year at iowa state He's the reason a keen butler got drafted like super high because he like balled out if you remember that name Oh, yeah, yeah That was like his first year the keen butler left and then he embraced hall. It's kind of you know purdy never really took a step forward but like he has like Some kind of processing capability. It's like he's smart just not like physically gifted So I don't think the offense will collapse Like I was putting in my projections for the team's efficiency In my like betting model and like I still got them being like, okay Like they're below average offensively, but like they're okay. I don't think the bottom will fall out but It's still tough to get super jazzed about a a running back against a very tough defense In a very low total game when they're not a great offense Yeah, and and this is not like uh, well We're not gonna play him next week on week 15. They're thursday night against seattle So I kind of think like i'm just grateful that I don't have to be tempted on the yeah I think that's very often. Yeah, so there will be some like fear of getting burned next week but like at 85 There still is because mccaffrey's playing on terrible teams. So we've looked at like his performance in low total games but I don't know if I could get toasted here, but I feel like tampa bay has usually been some of his down games throughout his like panther's career So they might be able to figure out ways to limit him, but Yeah, what about diva real quick? I don't know. I just like it's probably gonna be a I just don't think they'll there'll be a lot of explosion So like what's his like upside scenario? Like my checklist is 85 yards or two touchdowns. He could do that Like I know he can do that for sure, but like can he get 130 I don't know It's probably not and like I kind of want that to be the upside as a receiver Like the 85 or two touchdowns is a bare minimum for like a value play Yeah, and again any longtime listeners Who are really invested in like our debo conversation? We'll probably find this funny like The the low a dot for purdy is a problem now debo had three downfield targets, which for me is 10 plus yards downfield That's pretty solid. Yeah, but I don't think there's going to be as much Downfield usage so It just makes it harder and harder for debo to get there And I think I was thinking about the Jonathan Taylor comp I think it's like appropriate for macafe specifically, but like Also, this team has so many other options So like macafe could put up 150 yards and they just The touchdowns that goes way so About 150 yards with no touchdowns is still pretty good day. Like it's not gonna like it's not gonna like I know but with Taylor like if he has a big game I feel like the touchdowns are there because of what his role is so that's true Although macafe had eight out of 10 red zone chances on sunday Like yeah, that's that's sick, but I don't know I we think he's a fair salary for next week and we're roughly on the same page He is 85. I don't know. We said that but he is 85 for next week Okay, talk about some other injuries from week number 13 starting off with kenneth walker the third ruled out doing an ankle injury If it's a jammed ankle, whatever that means, uh travis homer was an active for this game DJ dallas was dealing with an ankle injury. They deemed him doubtful, but he did return So clearly they were desperate, which probably doesn't bode well for tony jones Dallas led with a 49 snap rate 10 carries one target jones seven carries four targets But again, they used a guy who was on a bad ankle over him not ideal um Homer got in a limited practice on friday So he may be good to go for the next game. Maybe walker is too. I don't know what a jammed ankle is So maybe he's good to go Would you avoid this backfield if walker missed his time? Uh, yeah, I don't think that they would lean on anyone as much as they would lean on walker Um, apparently a jammed ankle is like a sprain that's not side to side but like vertical How's that a thing? I don't know. It's apparently for fairly rare, but um No, they would I think that they would just keep throwing it to to dk mech half and tata locket and rotate in these backs I feel I don't know. I do think it would make them more pass heavy, which is fun Like yeah, we're talking about on thursday about how they had been pretty pass heavy Maybe they screw even more that drip because gino played he had a bad pit, but he played well Really well in that game. I know they didn't win by a lot, but like gino was good Yeah, um I don't know if this will make sense But I feel like there are so many names in the seattle backfield that have like rotated in and out throughout the years And they they've all been injured I feel like they're like the giants receivers of the running back position where it's like I know all these names, but I don't actually know who's active because they're not that relevant and like it Our job is to know everyone I track travis homer like a dog. So You're on an island there, but but it at a certain point It's okay to cross situations off and I think that this would be one of them I think dallas to get the early down work homer would get all the past catching work Maybe some early down stuff and that's enough where I'd be out for sure if walker misses time Lamar jackson ruled out on the first half due to a knee injury doesn't sound like it'll be a long term thing Tyler huntley came in was decent He averaged 0.06 passing that expected points per drop back Demarcus robinson had eight targets after huntley came in mark andrews had six devon duvernais had a pass attempt Which was not good. Uh, he had four targets. Isaiah likely also had four and we saw a lot of huntley last year We got a good sample on him He did win some games He had some pop games for dfs because it was rushing But he was a negative 0.12 passing that expected points per drop back and that was with Both marquise browner shot bateman in the mix and they're no longer there. So Huntley solid for a backup but a very clear downgrade from mar jackson And we weren't super enthused about these guys in this offense to begin with so How will you view I guess it's how are you gonna view mark andrews and huntley if lamar misses time? Yeah, I mean, we don't know what the main slate's gonna look like next week I believe it's a 10 game slate. So we're gonna have it's weird there. It's weird. Yeah So we're gonna have just fewer options and we're gonna have to be a little bit more open to You know taking some chances baltimore's pass rate over expectation minus 3.1 percent this week About normal for them not a huge deviation. So they kind of keep the same offense But downgrade the efficiency because lamar is a good really good quarterback. Um I think that mark andrews was sort of teetering on playability I'm realizing now that I'm wearing a ravens hat, but for anyone watching i'm not a ravens fan So this is like not I constantly get emails from NFL.com about like buy your lamar jackson jersey Because I bought you that hat because I lost a bobble hat against you. It's just a great hat. So I don't want those emails. I think I unsubscribed. I don't know. I need to do better about that But um, yeah, I'll buy a Tyler Huntley jersey if he wins me some money But yeah with mark andrews, uh He was sort of bordering on Because like this team was not converting on like what should have been better efficiency I had zero exposure this week and I didn't I didn't had no foma with that either Yeah, and part of it was the the defense that they're facing with damper But sure also part of it is the offense itself the backfields like mixed up again With kenny drake getting more work. So like and jk dobbins likely back next week so Very similar situation to like again the giants receivers a bit better for sure But also like what's the point of really sweating it for dfs because we're not playing these gods anyway They're implied total next week is 18.25 which ranks third highest on the main slate They're facing Pittsburgh a one and a half point favorites means they're assuming that huntley's playing Um, or one and a half point dogs. I should say, uh, so huntley's gonna play it sounds like And 38 point total that's tough A lot of low totals. Yep. There definitely are Gonna be great Aaron jones missed some time due to a shin injury and he was clearly limited throughout the game in the second half Specifically aj dylan pretty efficient in relief 18 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown. He had three targets for 26 yards dylan 67 snap right now jones Was questionable return returned Was on the field for like a second during the third quarter, but they didn't get an official playoff So no official plays during the third quarter played five snaps in the fourth quarter Two of which were on kneel downs for some reason So Aaron jones Came into this game with a shin injury like he missed some time in practice last week with a shin injury After one of his fourth quarter runs grabbed his shin I think this is a thing And it doesn't seem great, but they still have 4 playoff odds if you look at 538 playoff odds So like, you know, they could still make the playoffs. Aaron rogers is still there How we view in this backfield if we assume that jones keeps playing while clearly being hobbled Yeah, the the really weird thing for me because you sent us you sent me and jj's akeris and a slack message is just said like jones like holding a shin or something like that and I was like which jones like because There are a lot of jones is in play, but I was like, I don't think Aaron jones is playing in the second half and yeah So then I went and looked at the play by play at the end of the game and um Yeah, the very minimal second half usage But to see him out there as the guy because they were basically on the goal line almost Yeah, uh, he was the guy that they had on the goal line in case they fumbled the the snap for the neodown. It's like Is he hurt because if he's hurt you probably don't want him there Or are they limiting him on purpose? To keep him healthier So I don't really see how that this this morphs into erin jones is just erin jones next week Right, you know, we did see traves etn uh last week As in week 12 Could have returned but didn't have to and then played like all the snaps this week. So I guess maybe there's a path to that but In fairness to AJ dylan he's More involved in a little bit better than like what the jaguars can do So I don't really like I don't think I can play erin jones I don't know if it's enough for me to play AJ dylan though. So I'm probably just out Uh, so jones in practice this week was limited limited limited did not have an injury designation But that says like they're limiting him like they they want and that was for a shin injury So I'm pretty sure this is like like last week the exact same thing week entering week 12 the exact same thing When is the last time he didn't have this because like he played through it at a full Okay, limited limited limited week 11 uh week 10 Just gonna keep on going back erin jones, uh limited limited limited in week 10 that was with an ankle not a shin So he's been playing through this and he's been playing. Well, he's been playing a lot of snaps Last time he was not on the injury report was week nine He's had a lot of snaps despite that But it seems like he aggravated it in this game because he did get like an injury designation of like oh questionable to return He did grab a shin Hardly played it all in the second half. So I think this is a legit thing. Um I think I didn't change anything to know that they're on buy next week I don't think it changes the way I view the way he was used. It does make me Want to monitor what? um His practice involvement is in week four I'm heading into week 15 because if he winds up getting into practices heading into week 15 like full practices They're like, okay, cool work to go, but I doubt it. Can they flex a monday night game? I wish I think they talked about that at some point. I don't think it actually happened But so in week 15 so they go buy week 15 and wait, is that one of the the broccos games? No, they play they host the rams. Yeah, yeah, sorry the rams have like four straight prime time games So I guess again like we're we we primarily look at You know players on the main slate for next week can give that like a little bit more weight But we're not going to see Aaron Jones on the main slate for So week 16 No, even then then they play one of the three games on christmas day. So like these is Talk to you later bud. I love you Full respect get healthy and we'll talk to you next year. Yeah, we'll meet you next year next fall. We'll catch back up It'd be a good time. Get healthy. I love Aaron Jones. I used him a lot on sunday didn't go well Obviously that's a big part of why Underwhelmed but hopefully it's better Corlin sudden suffered a hamstring injury and didn't return for the broncos the broncos just 24 drop backs all games So not a ton of volume to go around here passes We're funneled toward greg dulcich. He had eight targets on 19 routes 85 yards. That's good Jerry judy ran just nine or eight routes. He didn't return to practice until friday got an augmented session there and did play But those eight routes turned into four targets in 65 yards Kendall hinton tied with dulcich for a team lead with 19 routes run, but a year just one target So we hate this offense. We were not seeing for an thug spell coral and sudden even jerry judy was out So sudden this is time Are you into dulcich or judy? I think i'd just be okay with dulcich because either tight end and tight end is just a huge mess but Not gonna like love it. Yeah, and I don't really know if jerry judy is gonna are they gonna like But yeah, I mean if we're not using sudden heavily like what are we I think they're both very very good I'm not gonna like pick one or the other so I think i'm just out this team can't score cheese next week Does this team still maxed out at 23 points? Oh, they scored nine on sunday. So yeah No, I mean like they I don't I think 23 has been their their high watermark I was looking at uh Whatever the pro football reference subscription Like the huge the detailed query thing is now. I forget what it's called But they're like bottom 11 in Point score through 13 weeks 13 games, I believe it like In nfo history, uh dulcich is 54 Not out of play No No Hmm. I don't know What's judy I don't I don't know. I don't care. I'm 65. That's too high. I don't care Yeah, I don't care Keep the cross off, uh, mike boom came back didn't play a ton But like it's enough where I'm not touching latavius murray trelon berks got hit in the head early and was rolled out with a concussion What are you? Disagree with me on latavius. His his workload is really good. He's playing the chiefs I'd rather get punched in the face By latavius murray than use latavius murray in tfs trelon berks That hit in the head earlier the concussion was ruled out. Uh, despite the early exit for berks and a negative game script No titan really went off. Nobody had more than five targets. Uh, chicken quank o conco had 68 yards He's the only guy who had more than berks is 25 yards o conco did play More than half the snaps for the first time this year ran around on 19 of 32 drop backs It's still not perfect, but it's something Does this injury to berks? Open up any You know interest in o conco for you O conco They get the jaguars next week. That could be a fun game I know it's almost 42 and a half, but I I think that's that's intriguing. We have to dumpster dive. So like Bear with me, but I'm sorry. I'm just jumping ahead to titan real fast So we have kelsey and andrews on the slate But we don't really have andrews though. I know that he did a lot with like huntley last year, but I don't Also, I finally was able to get up to travis kelsey and a main lineup this week How'd that go? Loved it. Loved it um I would probably be okay punting with him But only if like it's a true punt and like the salary is like five thousand or lower 48 Oh boy I like it Five targets and back to back games um They have no juice Robert woods ain't doing that for you Nick westbrook and kinae doing that for you. They don't earn targets either so It's a game that I don't hate Yeah, he's very high in yards per hour. I'm pretty sure. Yeah, like you're you're gonna have to catch. Yeah I think that he is viable. I'm not saying he is like a Someone I'd seek out but he is viable and I'm open to it is what I would say. Yeah Okay Hopefully berks is okay. I bet he misses next week though because I look bad So that look didn't look good. Hope he feels okay quest walken suffered a shoulder injury and didn't return Doesn't sound like it'll be a long-term thing, but Things were already super concentrated here a j brown led with 10 targets divante smith at eight walkens had six before his injury brown and smith both had huge production and just like sick plays across the board They're playing the giants next week. That's not a bad game We were high on this team already How high is too high to be on them entering that giants game? Uh, I don't really think there's like a way to be too high necessarily. Um You know, it's just two two receivers who get 50 roughly of the work and I guess eventually I'll have to come up with a different comp, but like that's classic dk macf and Uh Tyler locket, but with a quarterback who Was more playable than russ like in his yeah, it's like yeah so, I mean like we're not I'm not using miles sanders or any any of the running back pieces, but Like we're gonna decide on next week's slate We're gonna need upside one of you guys who can score a lot of points. Yeah, where else are you gonna go? Like I think that they're perfect for that. So name me a salary on all three guys jillan hurts aj brown davante smith hurts probably Like 89 I was gonna say 9 000. But yeah, I think that's right in there. Uh brown I'll probably be like 87 88 After what he did this week, I'd say 83 for him Is where I put him. Yeah, that's fair. Um, I'd probably put him like 85, but Which I know is what the game would play. So I should have uh, and then smith 75 I was thinking 75 or 73. I initially had 75 went down to 73 Um, I think that's fair. Okay, so hurts is 87. Awesome. We have a quarterback we can use He's a borderline write down. I think Personally, I think that's almost like it's not like because of the salary but because of the combination of upside and like acceptable salary Yeah, aj brown is 84 Why is amon? Amonra has a higher salary than aj brown. I find that a little bit odd a little bit odd I love amonra. Same brown. It's a little anyway. Uh davante is 7 000. So For the 17th consecutive week, I will have an aggressive amount of davante smith and I'm okay with that Yeah, I I love using davante smith. So like a jillan hurts davante smith stack Sign me up, baby. That's very doable this week Yeah, 21 target share this week. Uh before that leading in single games 32 39 36 percent. So And like the raw target numbers very good across the board and he's a good football player too Yeah, like he his yardage was boosted by like a garbage like at the end of the first half They like dumped it off to him and he ran like 35 yards, which I was very happy about but like That's fine outside of that too. He's good. So that's going to be a team we focus on on thursday Hayden Hurst suffered a calf injury did not return. They got jamar chase back though He led with eight targets and finished with 97 yards. Uh three of those targets were deep T Higgins five targets for 35 yards one deep target there Samaj P Rine 21 carries and seven targets for 155 yards without joe mixon He's the best. Mitchell wilcox earned a lot of snaps with no hurts, but just got one target He's Not super athletic. So not super enticed by that and it might just be one less guy in the seamuk in our targets Maybe that boost tyler boy, but he had an awful drop and i'm Mad at him. So he's not getting a christmas card. Um So what's your view of the bang of the the bang the bangles the bangles now that chase is back and hurts potentially out Love them. Yeah Love these guys man. How can you not? Well, that was weird. I don't like that. Um But like What what reason would you have not to like this often? They're playing well They're playing the browns next week I know like the texans didn't do anything, but that's the texans. This is the freaking bangles, man Like I my numbers say they should be favored by more than four and a half, which is the line right now like I feel like the bangles and the eagles are the Premiere Offenses on the main slate next week. Maybe dallas against houston, but that's not gonna be back and forth affair. This game Bengals, baby. I've I think they're fine Yeah, um, give me a salary for Uh chase and higgins And would you rather stack The bangles or the eagles I think the eagles would be more affordable Just because I don't think Yeah Well, I hope would be to have divante in there regardless and maybe stack the bangles too, but um So I think the chase's salary should be around He was like 89 this week. That was a little high. I used him, but it was only in game stacks I think he should be about 86 He's 87. I think that's fair. Okay. That's cool. I think that so t was 83 I think he'll go down because he didn't do a whole lot this week He still has like monster upside though and I want to keep that in mind. So I'd say 81 for t higgins I would have said probably 8,000, but he's 78 sick So a t divante lineup, I think that's kind of where I want to live Next week like that's pretty good. Hope when we get some value running back. Yeah, that's that's my hope but Yeah, if we mix and mix and comes in 85 again So and like I think so you asked last week would I downgrade mix and when he comes back because of p-run playing well We might be getting to that point just because like If you have two good guys, why would you not use both of them? You know, yeah, and the cms playoff hopes They don't need to run joe mixon Right into the ground. So yeah Uh p-run 78 like I would if mixon were to somehow not get back. I'd happily use p-run again, but yep Burrow salary next week 83 again very usable I think that I was pretty low on the main slate next week coming in because I was like, okay, we're going to find upside but like Hurts and burrow both have acceptable salaries both have good spots in terms of upside So I feel better about it now and having Divante Smith and t higgins both in the 7000 range. I think that makes me feel pretty good, too Yeah Okay, cool. All right. I I will I was scrolling through the fanto sports book odds and I saw Because again, we don't really like look at the slate at a time. I was like, oh, he used to knit Dallas. Was that spread 17? and it's 16 and a half so um My my like new bedding model I can update like earlier the other one It says the cowboy should be favored by 19 I don't have like backtesting on this new one to like reveal whether or not it's good on those margins, but that's where we're at It's a 19 point spread Over there for that one. We'll see how that goes Let's dig into role changes here and talk about the Browns with the Sean Watson They struggled first game for Watson coming off an 11 game suspension for two dozen lawsuits Are alleging sexual assault or harassment Watson finished with negative point 3a passing that expected points per drop back on 22 drop backs They were also pretty run heavy with a 46 early down first half pass rates This makes sense given the long layoff given um You know stuff like that It's not awe inspiring though given the matchup given how good the offense was which could be reset Amari Cooper um ran a lot of routes Nobody else had more than uh three targets Amari had eight targets nobody else more than three with David and joku and active Uh, they threw just 22 times. I put 28 targets in the note sheet I assume that was me. He um, I have amari with nine targets on 23 routes Okay, well either way So we knew that a dud was within the range of outcomes. We always knew that could happen coming off of a 700 day layoff But now they go into a game with the Bengals next week where we probably need to give long thought to this Browns offense What does that do to you in terms of that game where we need them to perk back up in a hurry? Yes, a Cleveland's pass rate over expectation on pass and run plays For week 13 minus 15.2 percent The week prior was minus 13.7 percent. It's usually not quite that aggressive for this team it is one of the more run heavy teams in football obviously, but um I don't know if they will try to lean on The run while watson gets back up to speed um, I know playing in houston they probably just Wanted to limit him, but yeah, you know, he had a really bad pick in the end zone As if like he didn't see that defender standard. He played terrible. He was yeah, he was awful. Um I might my main fear Is that this team will just try to establish the run? Yeah, and kind of ruin that game for next week Yeah, now Whether they can fully do that is sort of its own Question their record's not ideal, but I guess they won two straight Three of the past five. So like they're What I had no idea that they were actually winning games like I know that they won in cover yesterday That's like yeah, I was yeah, I was like feel like that I was like there. I know the record's not good and then I looked and um, Yeah, so I I'm not playing. I'm not playing watson. I'm not playing the past catchers Would you go a dpj if in joku sits again? for game stacks only Uh, he's 61 again The process behind playing this week because that he would return a pump return A pump for a touchdown that knew that that was that was fully fully planned. Um amari's salary is 73 That's the best. He's been low. It's sorry. He's had a long time Yeah His road amari though. We're not allowed to use him on the road. I don't know if you heard Uh digging the question from king j over on you about nick chubb about how we handle him After a disappointing game where they were facing off with the texans where it should have been like a chub type scenario I think I don't want to downgrade chubb too much because they didn't have the ball Ever they scored like 17 defense or a special team touchdowns which really suppresses volume So I wasn't getting into chubb. It's 96. Um, that was way too high I think that I would need chubb to come down to like this is going to sound like a lot And he's never going to get there, but I need chubb to come down to like 83 to use him I just don't think he'll ever get there. He's 84. Oh surprising So not a priority, but at least he's less egregious than he was Yeah, I mean I Again, like I have issues with nick chubb just because he's so one-dimensional And if it's not going to be run heavy that that leads to even fewer chances of getting receiving work. Um So you had 80 yards on 17 carries next-gen stats Had him expected for 58.7. So, you know 21 yards over expectation 1.3 per carry So he got worse relative to what he's either then He is they should rename rushing yards over expectation just chubbs over expectations. That sounds sexual We should have needed that but He is by far and away the best running back in football by that measure over since 2016 since they've uh incorporated that But again, he's just the guy he plays 50 percent of the snaps. He gets a lot of rushing work He has the potential for 130 and two touchdowns anytime. He's on the field but I think that I think you make a good point with the play volume here and just the the general flow of the game with all the defensive scoring, um but if like If we can't bank on the efficiency so much There's not going to be as much red zone work. I did so I think the question isn't like Are you worried about nick chubb? It's do you think the shon was and we'll get better and how quickly And if he's really good next week next job at 84 is a really good play Yeah How many times do we see guys get their salaries lowered? 1100 dollars Or 1200 without an injury not very often I mean part of it was his salary was egregious this past week It was because it was like protecting for the matchup in a sense, which I get yeah, but Yeah, I think that's interesting. He's he's I'll dig in more this week. I think just because that's very interesting The bears got Justin Fields back and his rushing workload scale back He wouldn't know because he had a 97 yard touchdown it seems like but he ran to six times Fewest rushes for him in a game all season 70 yards one yards and touchdown still because of course But he had had 12 or more carries in five of six games prior to this Along with the decrease in rushing volume though came a season high and passing yards at 254 It was the first game with no Darnell mooney. Cole Comet had seven targets Chase Claypool at six David Montgomery at five So chicago is on buy next week. So fields it's time to heal up Does this change the way you value fields knowing that he may not run as much But also that the passing is a little bit better or you think maybe I'll scale back up after the buy Uh, it's really tough because there's no reason for him to be running the ball at this point with their season the way that it is um I would think it'd probably be somewhere in the middle where you'd get like six to eight carries Yeah, and you know, he was like pulling the ball and running with it. He was willing to run Right. Um, I I think that there should be then more pass attempts and therefore a higher Ceiling in terms of the passing yardage, but again 254 being your your season high It's just a second game over 200 all season. I don't know how many 300 yards games he has um In his arsenal with the pass catchers that he has I don't know like it's I think it's partly him partly the the skill position players so I would need to see that salary like 80 384 to like Yeah, tempt me more if he's like 88 or 89 coming out of the buy with the rushing down Probably not going to be able to get there. Yeah, I think I agree that it was good. You mentioned that he was willing to run I think that's important because they may not call as many plays for him But if he's willing to run like that's that's worth something so I think 83 85 is probably appropriate. I'd agree commet is In play if he continues to be around 5,000 I think just because like he's playing well, so and People probably not going to be as enthusiastic about him as they were after his like six touchdown stretch Ezekiel I like didn't need to remain relevant for the Cowboys last night He out snapped Tony Pollard 54 percent to 43 percent Pollard did still get 106 yards on 18 adjust opportunities When three games of the Zeke being back Pollard is at 119 yards since scrimmage per game But his red zone share is 15.6 percent He's scoring from outside the red zone to kind of mask that but the red zone usually has been down Zeke had 91 yards. That's his second straight game topping 90 That's the lone two times. He has had 90 yards in scrimmage this year He also tied a season high with 23 adjust opportunities Red zone share for Zeke is 31.3 percent in three games back Zeke also ran more routes than Pollard for the second straight game. It was 12 to 11 so two questions one What does this do for you with Pollard and Is Zeke and play next week against the Texans as 16 and a half point favorites Um, I think you can make the case that both are in play from a process standpoint so long as the Salaries are somewhat reasonable. Yes, I think they'll be a little bit too high for me Sure, but in this specific game like sure they both can get there This offense is clicking that is really good And that makes me happy because I think some people don't think that's a very good quarterback Or he's just like, okay, but he's really good. Yeah but yeah, I mean the reality is like And uh, chris collinsworth referenced the yards for carry stats, which I know a lot like it's the most common rushing efficiency stats that there is but Zeke's much more successful on a rushing success rate basis Pollard has more explosion Like they're both so good. Yeah and That's weird, right like we don't get a whole lot of Running back situations where there's two guys involved and they're both actually really good So name me salaries for Pollard and and Zeke where you think they should be um I think Zeke should be 67 Is that fair? I think that's fair. I don't I think we'll be higher than that probably but like I I wouldn't rule him out even if he's a bit above that honestly. Yeah um Pollard, I would say So again, Aaron Jones with a better quarterback right now I'm sticking with that comp. I think it's Very fair 78 Oh, no, is he like 8 9 000? Well Zeke's 8 000. What? So Are you kidding me? No, I and Pollard's 75 What? Am I on drugs? I was gonna say 68 for Zeke 78 for Pollard. So we were gonna be right in line with each other Yeah, like more or less I think the case against Pollard is that they might not need him that much Like that's the only case against him But are they also going to give I can see them giving Zeke a lot of work as like an FU kind of thing Like to the here's to the haters 93 carries for Zeke. Did you hear that crowd? Like chanting Zeke like on the goal line like later in the game when they wanted to give him a touchdown I had it. You did. I'm gonna be fully honest with you. I love Chris Collins. This is not a Collins worth thing Collins worth is actually a pretty good analyst. This is not I just had the game you did Um, well, we talked about it like all right I know I throughout the theory of like on Thanksgiving I was like, they're gonna want to get Zeke like a touchdown this this team is connected to Zeke in a way that Is unquantifiable? Correct. It's not the kind of thing that like we just throw up This team's gonna just ride Zeke because they love Zeke like next week. It's not that it's uh They do care a lot now What I will say is he's had 16.6 16 17.2 17.7 15.1 fandal points Over his past five games. He has scored Once once twice twice once in that sample So that's what seven touchdowns in the past five games to get About 16 fandal points per game I cannot play Zeke at 8000 if that's what we're looking at No, because I'd like the yardage upside Isn't gonna be like he's had he's been very good the past couple weeks. He's playing well, but like He's not a huge yardage guy. No, he's like a to me right now. He's like a gem all Williams plus Yeah, we're like, that's a fair call. He's got the double touchdown upside. Sure. He's got more than like 45 yard potential Yeah But I I can't get there at 8000. I just kind of bunk sounds like I could be very upset to Zeke if he were in the 6000 it's like, yeah, I can I can get behind that but 8000 is way different. Polaroid though at 75 like Sure I could do that No questions like he played a 45 snap rate, but Again, still had more than 100 yards He's like these guys these guys get a lot of work going on the field And also like the Cowboys are not they're not afraid to just kick butt like on the ground and like If they can do it, they will and they can do it against Texans Yeah, so they're probably going to use both these guys a lot in that game before the game gets out of hand Yeah, and what if it stays close? I don't think it will but what if that's in the range of outcomes, so Polaroid is very interesting at 75 I'm into that. We'll talk about uh, michael gallup in the situations to monitor section, I forgot the word section uh, ricky mosher leafrog jeff wilson as the dolphins lead back though didn't matter Mosher at 60 snap rate wilson 38 percent Neither guy had more than seven adjust opportunities or 30 yards They'll have better spots. Um Are you on a mosher in a wilson? What are we doing with this backfield? So if you look at uh pass and run plays only, um Miami had a pass rate over expectation of of a positive 22.8 percent Which was the highest single game mark of any team this season Um, it makes sense San Francisco good rush defense They have a better chance of beating them through the air I don't want to say that like Miami's going to be matchup dependent, but if we notice that they have a tough rushing matchup they might just Throw it many times. Yeah and like Taren armstead was doubtful for this game Which implies to me that he might be able to go They're playing on sunday nights. It doesn't really matter that much, but like he might be able to go next week I think that was part of the reason that they were as an effective as they were was because both the tackles were out So I do not really care that the offense struggled there. Tua was just off all day Um for probably the first one of the first times this year Uh, I think you just kind of write it off. Um, but the backfield is tough So I guess my question to you like philosophically here is they play the chargers next week Do you think they establish it? I think they run more I think so too I think Mike McDonald realizes that if they get armstead back specifically I think they kind of need him probably if they want to run the ball, but like I don't know Maybe they could run With me at left tackle against the chargers. I don't know That might be a stretch, but Also, I didn't that was a fast one to play left tackle. So that's not happen We'll kick there one of their guards. I've tackled. I'll play garden instead. See what happens there. Yeah, that's all everything I did want to touch on one thing. I go back to the Cowboys quick. Um Um Just because I want to get the stat on the show, okay league average success rates on late downs is 44.3 percent Cowboys since DACA current returned 57.3 success rate on late downs unadjusted for opponent there, but like They have had a late down success rate of of two-thirds or higher in half those games And they were 58 percent another one They're disgusting good. They're disgusting. DACA is good. Cowboys are good They're gonna roll uh deandre swift Undertaker dot gifting right in front of our eyes. He was playing in the second half with a two-score lead He finished with a 51 snap rate. That's his highest this week eight Which was his first game back off injury. They scaled him back after that He also had six out of 12 red zone chances That is his highest raw number and his highest rate of the year Swift finished with 14 carries and six targets That is his first time with more than 21 adjusted opportunities all year So it seems broadly like they want him limited. We know jewel what mall williams will still get goal line work But swift got decent work here. We know he's talented So where are you on swift after this game because I have a question for you after you give your broad thoughts Just a broad question. Maybe this is me being paranoid, but go ahead Now i'm trying to think like So i'm worried they were a big and they know they have the vikings next week and they still have a shot at playoffs Maybe they're like, okay, let's Conserve jamal. I'm a little bit worried about that I don't think that's the case a little bit worried I'm pretty sure I saw some quotes about like very positive Swift played a lot in the first half too. I know that's a dumb theory Ignore me All right, let me look up Okay, well, let me look up first half snap rates real quick Yeah, he was only 50% in the first half. It was the exact same as the second half. I'm wrong You can ignore me. Uh, give your thoughts on the understood ignoring my paranoia Um, I think it's great, uh for swift I'm pretty sure I saw some quotes about swift Um in a very positive sense in terms of like his health Before the game from him No from like the coaching staff I don't want to say that without like Yeah, you know where it was because I want to find this Uh It would it would have been on twitter. So I don't I don't know Let's bring the show to a grinding halt because I think I saw something a couple days ago About swift's health, but Anyway good role for swift and I think that we're just gonna have to adjust the Uh, running back gauge with swift because his snap rate itself is probably going to be fairly low But his involvement when he's on the field is going to be high And you know, you usually don't want to like telegraph things like that, but Some some guys operate that way And I'm fine if swift plays 55 of snaps, but it's treated More like a 65 to 70 snap rate because I think that's going to just keep the salary down It's going to keep the ceiling capped to a big degree, but um if You know, if they're if they're playing minnesota next week It's going to be indoors either way if they're at home Um Like there's a chance that game stays close and like they're just like we're going to keep swift out here You know in the fourth quarter because he's a lot better than jamal Williams And I think that they all know that it's also a really tough matchup on the ground Which could encourage them to use more of the guys better in the passing game, which is justin jackson. Sorry. Uh de andre swift um line still at 8 playoff chances per 5 38 not bad. Um I think they care a lot and I think that they're ramping it back up I do want to read the coach speak if we hear it because I think that my concern with swift was not health It was always coaching staff wanting him to be in that role And if they're going to change their views and then I'll change my view of them at hurry So name me a saga for swift against the vikings next week in the game with the highest total by four points uh 72 I was thinking 68 because I'm still it's still annoying that jamal takes work And we don't know that this is his new role. He's exactly 72. See you nailed that High enough for me to be a little bit uncomfy still But not out of play In that game. Um, just like this past week, I'll be willing. I think on a 10 game slate doesn't have a ton of just Two-sided back and forth games to go a little bit heavy jim's cover in his face I look to delvin cook salary. It's 87 Let us give us one gimme one just Sneak one pass the goalie. They're making us other than tony pollard. They're making us put out from like foot and a half here I can still miss But it's a it's a big upgrade for swift He's at least violent 72 whereas I would have scoffed at that last week. So I think it's very intriguing 11.4 percent pass rate over expectation for them this week by far their highest rate of the season And they're facing a team That forced the jets with mike white a quarterback to go past heavy this week Shark week 98 yards recall Will the cell come down from uh, 12,300 though. Is that where it's seven? It was disrespecting dj charts by putting a 57 next week. Oh boy Monro is like 69,000. So Um, he's 86 So I'll be on shark again. What could go wrong? we'll talk about uh genius and williams and that uh in the situations to monitor section later on naji harris returned to his usual role week 13 Both he and jail and warren healthy harris had a 66 snap rate, which is about where he had been until war and mistime Harris dominated a backfield shut touches played better again, which I think is encouraging for naji 17 carries in a target for 92 yards against a bad defense It seems like naji will maintain a featured roll down the stretch But is there enough from naji and pittsburgh for you to care? um I will say it's been positive To see because I didn't know where the snap rates would wind up You know he he was he played 93 in the game that Warren played 4% then harris, uh 30 back in week 12 So it was like, you know, is this going to be like 50 50? They've been talking about janin warren, but to see him at 66 percent be kind of leaned on here Um, seems like he's playing better. Maybe he's getting healthier specifically because he had that foot injury entering the year but I don't quite know How often I want to be there With this offense like against baltimore next week If i'm playing naji harris, it's because of obligation due to a low salary and I don't like to play guys Simply because their salary is what catches my attention. I want to play guys whose roles catch my attention His role is okay or role in situation. I should probably yeah, um And he he hasn't better so before Let's see here Before week 10 so before thereby He had maxed out at 80 90 arts and scrimmage in his full game sense of eye He has 99 16 and 92 Kind of been like zeke honestly. He's been a little zeke-ish, which is rude. He's a second year, but whatever. Um Little zeke-ish, which is a good that's a positive thing. I should know um to calm zeke-ish Now next week they get baltimore baltimore since roquan smith came over has been sick Against the run just been a sick off or sick defense in general But specifically sick against the run So it's not a good matchup, but I would be receptive to naji harris if his salary came in at like $6,600 I was thinking like using it like 65 to 67 without a whole lot of conviction 67 Yeah, I just I don't know if I'll really get there any game. I'm not gonna stack at all. Yeah Yep, I think that's fair James cook may have had a little bit of a breakout for the bills He played the same number of snaps as devon singletary at 44 percent But he turned 14 carries and six targets into 105 yards in scrimmage Cook also had four to 14 red zone chances singletary is topped 100 yards once this year He's had more than five targets once and cook top both those marks in this game So do you think this is a legit changing of the guard? To the point where you'd consider cook or do you need to see more before you dive into this backfield? Uh, I think it just takes singletary out of play Definitely both of them Keeps both of them like off the board Maybe a sour for games cook where you'd be like, okay You gave me some pause Where you're like, okay, I'll consider this now It has to be under 6,000 like 58 because I think that's where I'd I'd put it. Yeah 61 not totally out of play because like He's a running back meow june's in um or benny um Or willy there's a third now. Yeah, exactly. So we we got a lot of options here, but bills 9 and a half point favorites that might be a little bit heavy against the jets next week very good defense um, but You know heavily favored. He is a running back who it seemed like they wanted to go out of their way To give more chances this past week mini by I think 61 is is low enough for you at least like, okay, I will give this a couple seconds of consideration Yeah, we'll learn more about the slate with the salary scroll. Um, this is one of those spots Yeah, but this is one of those spots where There's a difference between seeing a change And projecting more of a change this might be what they do the rest of the way this also might be like the harbinger of Like he he goes to the 44% snap rate then like 60% next week and then he plays like the devon singletary roll from last year down the stretch I don't know if there's enough juice In that roll to chase it very often, but I won't knock it Specifically at 61 I think he has I think he has more juice than than singletary Yes, but the running back The rb1 for the bills The rb1 for the bills But like what if that running back has But what if he actually has talent for once? It's been a while. Are you saying they'll give him the ball more than singletary or that mean they did more Or that they'll do 26 adjust opportunities in that game. Yeah 105 yards. Yeah, I I know He had 86 yards two games before that on 15 Adjusted opportunities He's got some juice and the bills Running the ball more Yeah Have your personnel a little bit I think I think it's like a half he's a half right down How many etn's on james cook? What's your interest level because I'm at like six and a half. I think I was gonna say six and a half Yeah, okay. We're on the same page. Um zonovan knights led the jets backfield and snap rate at 55% Even a negative game script night had 90 yards on 15 carries and 28 more yards and five targets Ty Johnson did run more routes 26 to 23 He had more targets as well seven to five, but knight's rule was Overall a lot better. So let's say michael carter misses more time Is there enough here for you to consider knight in dfs? um Maybe I'd need the salary to stay down because the offensive expectations are low But if it's like the difference of maybe stacking or running back in a game That is like I have interest in the other side on I think I'd be there. I would not like similar like a nodgy situation. I'm not going to play them in games that I don't like the other side of Yeah, um I don't know if I get there because like He's gonna listen passing you more to ty johnson I don't think Like I think they're playing better under mike white, but it's still mike white and I want to make sure we don't get Overthusiastic there. So I don't know uh his salary 63. It's fine James cook or is on of a night on of a night specifically next week is on of a night is on of a night I'm sorry. Oh, wow. What am I talking about? James cook. Oh my gosh. I was saying it so confidently Yeah, I know Way to play the role of the the the white male jim being confident and being wrong Good job I was like, wait, am I am I misunderstanding literally maybe you're the one I'm talking about Yeah, no, James cook. I think by a wide margin there. Sorry. Yes, you agree. Okay, cool Uh, I'm gonna skip the Broncos backfield. I'm talking about them Johan Dotson played 79 of the washington snaps this week easily his highest snap rate since coming back from injury nine targets 54 yards, uh, he had a touchdown while running 89 of the routes Dotson doesn't have a lot of yard issues, but he's a good football player Um, we have considered past catchers in this offense before so is Dotson on your radar? If not Does he take any enough away from terry mcclore and encourage a Samuel to worry you there? I think it's now three guys and this offense can't support three guys They're all that's my main fear. Yeah You know Sometimes it is that simple where would I be surprised if one of these guys has a good game? No, would I be surprised if the three of them collectively have like good production? No Do I think that any of the three of them really have a path to Making me regret Saying why did I why did I not play johan dotson? Unless the salary is low for dotson and Samuel because it's going to be elevated for terry always So give me a salary range for dotson dotson specifically um So he has multiple deep targets now five games First time he's done so with high niki, but it's also first time he's playing a lot of snaps with high niki High niki sucks in terms of like deep balls because he has a noodle arm He has sorry. He has dongle arm god that I have the prop here still um Like 54 I would have said like 57 just because I think he's good. Yeah, I do too. It's your penn state bias. She went through. Yeah, um We got some baby. Oh, it's not the main slate. No, they're on bye. We got six teams on by next week I think if he's in the mid to low five thousands, I can consider him We got six teams on by and maybe One relevant dfs player It's at lana chicago. He's just in fields the one relevant dfs player I was thinking jonathan taylor too. So but like who's that? It's at lana chicago green bay indianapolis new orleans in washington We're not going to feel that one too much new england is playing on monday night. That's great Don't care. Ah the chargers and dolphins that thinks to lose them arizona though We don't have to I don't have to play the alvin kimera game I don't have to sweat divonta adams having 97 000 yards against me. Yeah, I don't have yet. That's a good one Uh, don't got to worry about justin fields. I don't just sweat cam acres getting 60 yards I don't have I don't have to worry about kyler on the main slate I don't have to sweat the defense face in the rams. I should phrase it that way. That's good So I don't have to consider the raiders defense as a punt option. That's that's enticing that's exciting for me So, yeah, okay situations to monitor what else stood out to you across sunday or thursday, I guess um, not really role change but travis etn returned to The elite role that he had uh 87 snap rate. So they did not limit him after the injury In week 12, which he could have returned but didn't so great to see that um Talked about the ravens offense already with tyler huntley But we saw kenyon drake lead the backfield and snap rate at 48 percent gus edwards 25 percent justicell 23 percent Dobbins might be mixed back in Like there's nothing relevant for dfs here. These guys don't have a single game ceiling. That's worth targeting um, asia pacheco 46 snap rate same as jerrick mckinnon But 10 routes to mckinnon's 13. So a little bit narrower there. Um, then you might expect But as someone who's heavily invested in pacheco, um The red zone role is Concerning he scored again, but it wasn't good usage. Yeah, 55 red zone opportunity share for jerrick in that game 18 percent for pacheco Seems weird because like seems like pacheco's the kind of guy you hand the ball to and he just like runs Full speed also, it's very dangerous to give mckinnon the ball because he like chucked the ball at He's chucking it like the stands but like it almost hit a photographer and he just looked angry and I was like, okay Let's take it back 16 notches here jerrick but Yeah, so it looks like asia pacheco would run full speed Into anyone who it was in front of a mythical line. Yeah, jerk mckinnon actually did that. It was just his own offensive alignment So I I mean I understand like the versatility of passing game usage You know inside the 20, but that's concerning. So I I can't really bump up pacheco Yeah, substantially. I still have a lot of concerns there But check around 10 routes and I think they were all on the first drive Like he had two targets like otop in the game and he didn't get another the entire day Entire day. I don't know why teams do that Um, same offense though marquez about as scantling 62 route rate. So that was down But I'm taking my headphones out. You're not gonna sing your siren song about it's not your siren song I just not allowed to hear stuff about it. So I'm gonna take my head four. Go ahead four downfield targets Two for 71 there's still potential there, but it's it's just a weird situation for for mbs Um, I think you have a note on this later, but kory davis 10 targets this week But the passing volume was way up 58 drop backs An 18 target share, you know at a certain point target share doesn't do enough if it's a super pass heavy situation But I think I'm gonna chase the 10 targets necessarily um Kind of the guy I had envisioned whenever we started doing the situations to monitor section last year was nico collins, um What What you envisioned nico collins? Yeah, because I was like there's gonna be guys that we don't talk about who are super relevant But maybe have some notes on them and I was like, what if nico collins is getting like to find super relevant To find super relevant like all the role changes and injuries No, you said what if there are some guys who have the usage that's super relevant Not super relevant. Oh, okay. I probably just I probably just mumbled which I've been known to which is great for a podcast, but um Since week 10 collins 10 7 9 and 10 targets, but no more than 50 yards in any of those games That's tough. Uh, this one's for you jim 2 2 out of 4 for me. Oh, okay carries. Sorry. I'm one of the red zone Don't you dare tie me to 2 2 out. Well, this is worse. No, I realize I should look for Uh, I should just every every week every Monday morning. Look at which receivers got rushes Um, two that stood out to me cd lamb justin jefferson two carries each Not necessarily something that they do a lot of but I will take that and final thing, uh Doesn't really matter much, but the broncos got mike boon back and they still featured the tavius murray Why don't you do this 67 snap rate? No leaned on early and often 17 carries. I muted your mike I've muted you you can't talk anymore. Uh, my situations to monitor michael gallup had it I can do it again. I can kick you out of the broadcast if you need me you skipped over it. I'm just saying No Okay, see you Michael gallup had another good game on the sunday night He had four red zone targets and two touchdowns on seven total looks His target share is up to 20 percent since the team's bi-week with 29 of the deep targets falton schultz and 17 with a lot in the red zone cd lamb doing cd lamb stuff Um, they're a very good offense with three reliable viable pass catchers They're probably not going to throw more than 20 times next week, but Once they're pushed i'm going to love uh, michael gallup once again Drake london at 12 targets on sunday, which was half of the team's looks Three of those were deep and he turned into 95 yards If we look at the three games without kyle pits london is at 7.7 targets per game with 1.7 deep per game That's better than it was. We know the floor is still zero, but it's getting better They're on by this week, but it's at least getting better jamison williams debut, but in a limited fashion he played eight snaps on offense and Ranjas two routes couple those were kneel downs He was supposed to play gunner on special teams But they never punted because jared gov has the best quarterback who's ever existed cleif ramond's playtime collapsed josh reynolds ran 33 routes dj charke ran 41 king charke uh charke had more routes than amon rossin browns He's better So it seems like charke and amon rossin brown relatively safe even as williams roll expands But reynolds and cleif ramond Do not consider them. I think that they're off the table In all seriousness, do you think dj charke is in play next week at $5,700 against the vikings. I played him in our head-to-head against one another this week. So I still beat your butt I have to brag because that doesn't happen very often anymore. So you're beating me now You can clinch in the season-long standings like next week. I'm pretty sure so, uh, I got a brag Well, I can just let me have this. I was out of really bad really bad week. I need to lean on that Damian pierce had a perfect setup for sunday still did nothing. He had 95 yards His snap rate was 74 percent even the rex berkhead being an active They had 17,000 possessions due to all of the browns defense touchdowns and He still did nothing I don't think pierce can burn us for not using him. I will need extreme circumstances to be there Cam makers 73 snap rate who cares you get to talk about cam makers, but I can't talk About latavius murray. You're right. Moving on. Jalani woods had a huge game I'd rather talk Jalani woods than freaking latavius murray Jalani woods had a huge game monday night last week, but they put him back in the dumpster with kyleen granson acted this week Woods ran 11 routes on 40 drop backs granson ran almost double that Woods did earn four targets on those 11 routes because he's good at football But we need to shift here to use them on a mains To us that hate efficiency Let's go now to philosophical changes. This is where I have the note on the jets In mike white's second start the jets were super pass heavy 70 early down first half pass rates They were under 50 last week. This is likely matchup related as the vikings have a very good rush defense Uh, but it led to huge volume garret wilson 15 targets cori davis 10 both guys had 85 yards at least Um, why didn't play well? But their faith in him. I think is encouraging and led to volume so How are you viewing garret wilson right now and you talk briefly about davis But can you consider any of the non wilson guys in this offense? I think it's just wilson. Like I said, I have passing interest in night if it's like the right situation I don't think it's underdogs next week Where are you on wilson now in that matchup? Um, I assume the salary will be a bit high for me. Um But he's gonna be the only relevant piece to bring it back with Uh, one note, uh, just about like the vikings defense specifically they they have the the highest catch rate over expectation allowed to receivers Probably just because they're on defense is so good dj truck. Do do do do do so for wilson He's got he's got to have a seven in front of his salary at this point. So I'll say seven thousand Well, with his I don't know with his volume. I know 73 I think is where I go 32 that's fair We had a lot of fair salaries this week which is upsetting um What? Yeah, it it leads to fewer write downs, but also fewer like although we have the zeke one. I think that took Took enough of the Agregiousness. Yeah, that's true for the whole week. Okay. What are the notes that you have across this week? Miami really passed heavy against the 49ers already mentioned this but highest single game pass rate over expectation of any team all season makes sense but maybe miami's a little bit more sensitive to Being a team that adjusts for like what the opponent does Well, which can be good and bad depending on our good your offenses On detroit with geonich swift healthier pass rate over expectation of 11.4 percent by farther highest rate of the season Um, I think that elevates me on swift which is why I was a little bit higher on him than you I also love geonich swift than any of these good um Similar to dolphins though the eagles really pass heavy against a good rush defense 10.7 percent pass rate over expectation Which is their second highest of the season Um higher higher than that was weakening against pittsburgh, which is another good run defense. So You know, we've seen them not force it against teams that have like low a dots allowed Seems like this team is just smart enough to figure out how to win um, that's relevant for me Uh, I don't want to panic for these final two teams here, but they're both really relevant and Part of why they were relevant is because they threw the ball so much and other not, but it's the chiefs and the bills Something's been different with the chiefs. Um, I don't think it's just isa pecheco, but Over the past uh, or this week against insinati pass rate over expectation minus 0.7 percent. So basically even Um combined over the past three games still a plus three But entering that stretch they were a league high 13.6 percent So I think it's something to think about My homes was maybe not fully healthy at points in that game look a little bit slower Um, just kind of want to throw that out there and then for the bills almost the same exact thing Minus four percent pass rate over expectation this week their second lowest of the year lowest was actually in week 11 So pretty recent Over there past three they're now at a minus one, but entering there were a plus 10.9. So almost 11 Plus 11 there You know now their team is going full run first. That's not what this is but they're they went from Being outliers and just slinging it regardless of game script To now throwing it about as as expectation goes. So I just want to throw that out there I don't think this says don't play these these passing offenses, but It is something that's worth monitoring for sure And I think with the the chief it's probably due to the injuries at receiver because they've gone with more heavy personnel getting like No, a gray look like no gray is playing a lot of snaps. And so it's jody foster slash jody fortson um So I think they're just going to have your personnel and it's working. They get the broncos next week They're obviously heavily favored in that game It is a melvin gordon revenge game. I'd assume he'll be active uh for that exact reason But would you consider pacheco in that script? We talked about the concerns we have but like he said getting a little bit We're on heavier. He's had 80 plus yards of scrimmage and now four straight games You prefer to attack denver on the ground versus through the air any interest He was 7 000 this week if his salary went up much What if it came down hypothetically if it came down? yes If it's above 70 because what was swift 72 went up to 73 So swift or pacheco next week? Uh, probably swift. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Uh, other question circling back We talked about the 49ers offense with brock party Hmm What would you do with them if baker mayfields wear their quarterback because bakers getting waived by the panthers today? This is just breaking It could be uh christian mccaffrey baker mayfield reunion that no one asked for um Imagine this is a joke by the way. I don't want you to actually answer this. No, no That can happen, but just imagine like Last year Baker mayfield on the 49ers No, it's christian mccaffrey Yeah, we're gonna get baker mayfield and christian mccaffrey reuniting With the 49ers. Oh, what a second. Wait, what did I miss? Ah, maybe the Texans will sign them and just complete the full circle of that browns trade. Um Yeah, I I love bakers. I feel sorry about all this but It is what it is. Let's go to our salary scroll for week number 14 Open up the week 14 to main slate over on vandal.com going position by position and shouting out things That are noteworthy to us starting off at quarterback brandon. What are you noticing there? I see Uh patrick mahomes 88 draw shallon 87 and jaylon herts at 87 pretty tough matchups for both mahomes and allen less So for herts I think it's going to be the default assumption that I want to play jaylon herts this week He's very good at football and he has two guys to stack with one of whom seems to be under salaries I think that all that applies to burrow as well at 83 Yes, I He's running more now Which I think means we should we should actually account for that when talking about him Not that not not that anyone cares, but I had a match up. I've See and see along. I have joe burrow. I was facing jaylon herts when jaylon herts got 34 Or so this week and in that scoring system. I was like I think burrow can have a good game But I don't know if you get 34. He almost did because he got like 30 with that drop tyre boy touchdown But I think that's enough for me to really try to prioritize jaylon herts a little bit more um I was listening to the athletic football show this morning and Nate tice on there said The Bengals have called 21 design runs for joe burrow this year. Whereas they called 11 all of last year A lot of those were on sunday. He had 11 carries. I think some of those were kneel downs I'll figure that out later, but Before I think he had eight actual carries for like 49 yards and a touchdown. He's running more than he was I find that very interesting. I haven't met nine carries excluding the kneel downs Yeah, I think that's noteworthy. It is personally. Okay. What else do you see a quarterback? Uh, what do we got here? We got flurke cousins at 75 I've never I have not thought about curd cousins this entire season in terms of dfs Yeah, but against the the lions Maybe Gino against the panthers 77 I just don't think that game shoots out. Yeah, like darnold's been better than the other quarterbacks, but like Is there a path to that game? featuring 60 points, but like gino was good this past week. It wasn't like Yeah, speed of which DK coming through free war. Yeah Kirk has not had more than 23.5 vandal points here. I'm not sure I should go there even against The lions, but your golf is 71 You're gonna go super pass heavy against a hmm past funnel defense To Sean seven thousand apparently dan Campbell gave the game ball to dj chart this week, by the way Let's go I am dan Campbell Would you consider Watson? No, let's don't want to reform Like I think if I weren't considering that he'd be worth considering but I said would you rather use golf or cousins in that game? Uh Probably golf I think I'd rather go golf too Golf has only one rush attempt inside the red zone this year coward run it more Um, okay anything else a quarterback Did ryan taniel have a pulse? No, I guess not. That's the trend bursts out. Yeah. Yeah Okay, let's go to your running back. Uh, what do you see there? Um Trends off pretty quickly It's hard not to see zeke and some hijap right at eight thousand and seven eight hundred respectively and just question What's happening? Yeah I think seguan having his salary down to 82 is interesting uh the Eagles rush defense has been trending back up. Um But that's not a terrible game Seguan hasn't done a lot recently but that's kind of because he's like a volatile runner It could be because he's lost like explosion that they've used him too much but like I feel like yeah, he's really getting boosted by touchdowns lately too They're receiving yardages down. Yeah, he hasn't had He's he's receiving usages up because he's had five six and five targets But his yard has been pretty bad for now three consecutive games But like we it's kind of like a nixon thing where An explosion is still within his range of outcomes So, yeah, you know I don't know. I think tn salary is down to 74 really really really tough ground match up, but It's good for a dynamic player I think honestly of anyone so far tony pauler has my interest the most is 75 Specifically in that matchup I don't disagree I'm not gonna love pacheco. It's 73. I have interest in geontersmith. It's 72, but None of these guys so far have been like I'm plugging him into our head to head lineup Depending on rachad whites uses on monday night. He's 6800 dollars. Lenny. I'm expecting to play. Yeah um Really tough ground match up against san francisco, but like the odds a positive script or at least higher without jimmy garoppolo Yeah, I'd like to see for net play just to see what that looks like me too. I agree I do think james cook at 61 is worth giving thought to I don't know if I would use him yet, but like I think we need to Talk about him at least I think running back is bad enough and quarterback is Good enough at the top end but bad enough on the low end where This by nature has to open up receiver in the flex for me this week Fair Let's so speaking of which let's go to wide receiver. What do you see there? Justin jefferson 93 against the lions Yikes, uh, could be too low but I'm gonna want to get there Yeah Like he's worth that and the monorai st. Brown same thing at 86. I joke about shark being the best player in the history of football, but A monorai's usage is very good Um He had two touchdowns on sunday, but also got tackled at the one on another Like he just consistently gets used in that area of the field. He's sick I think the best play So far among we're running backs and receivers is t. Higgins at 78 Although I'd push back and say divante Smith at seven thousand might be better than t Even yes, but as as we've gotten like through all the running backs and then down to 78 I think Higgins is then the name that I'm most likely to want to write down I think this further is your argument too that we should be very receptive to receiver in the flex because our two favorite guys so far are probably Higgins at 78 and divante at that seven thousand and they're both receivers. Yeah um Scrolling and don't see a whole lot else at wide receiver Gave the babes down to 62 um Hasn't had the best usage But like also has not been irrelevant He's gonna have a very tough matchup Against the jets tremendous secondary played very well so far this year, uh, but Gave the babe and the two games with mckinsey up five and seven targets. It's not the worst We know that he can explode Yeah Maybe dpj 61 potentially. Yeah I know that we literally just joked about this but Niko Collins is 59 in a game. No, who is it? No He's gonna see 10 10 plus targets His team can't score two touchdowns. Which means he can't and he hasn't had 85 yards in like Since college actually they were a run heavy team in college. He may not have gotten Even you know that many yards yards there. I would actually find this. What is the last time Niko Collins? I was probably this year But go ahead. You keep talking about receiver. I'm gonna look up some Niko Collins slander Sure, I'll let you know when I find anything that really jumps out to me Uh, he's not at 85 yards yet this year Shark at 57. Yes Hell yes Like there's an outside chance for Tyler Boyd at 59 That I could get there Okay, I'm going back to college for Niko Collins by the way Okay career game logs in college for Niko Collins The last time he had 85 yards was Pre-covid so no, I'm not doing it um I really think that my lineup is going to start with like gilin hurts T divante And like shark Yeah Um, I really I'm glad that I'm not alone on this like I needed sanity check on him because like I die into him But I feel better about that I I don't think I'd quite get there But if I want to have some exposure to the other side of a gilin hurts stack and we're really scrounging for Not just like value, but even any great plays Isaiah Hodgins is running a lot of routes for the Giants at 55 If I'm assuming that hurts and like divante and aji brown are relevant I could see maybe getting to Hodgins at 55 just because everything else is so bad I just don't think there's a path to like huge upside there But there are if that's our criteria for for receivers this week, which is should be 56 DJ shark 57 there are guys in that range who actually do have juice Tyler Boyd, maybe if Hayden Hurst being out if you weren't looking up Niko Collins stats I just you heard I said I know I'm just saying like, you know There are guys there. It's not totally barren. There are three guys. I'd feel good about like with a A pulse and a chance for a big ceiling. So that's better than usual But at running back in the value range Nothing not much. So yeah Okay, so I've got uh If you do gilin hurts with divante tea shark like you mentioned I'm gonna put chig a conco in at tight end just for funsies. I don't know if I'll actually want to do that but let's just do it for funsies And defense What is the Kansas City defense to 54 or 45 that's not high Not too bad Um, I'll find a defense here in a second Pittsburgh's defense is 30 against. Uh, there we go. Okay. So I got 74 left You can make that work. It's not pretty but That means we can get to Pollard That's good. But that's 74 for a flex and two running backs Yeah, so I think that furthers the Why just even the flex agenda Or you can go Pollard shark and swift Or pecheco You know or Pollard etn. Sorry Pollard etn and swift But then that also means instead of switching the flex I could go with like Garrett Wilson or something. So yeah receivers very live for flex, uh this week Anything else to receiver should we go to tight end? Let's go to tight end. Okay We have Travis Kelsey at 8,000 nobody else above seven mark anders at 68 Likely with Tyler Huntsley. What else to see at tight end tg. Hawkinson in season of edge game. Oh, baby. Oh, baby I'm not gonna be able to get to Dalton Schultz as 90,000 point favorites George kiddo 59. Is that low enough? No Not with the quarterback situation pep fire me with at 58. Um, not a great matchup Not a great game But he keeps showing yardage upside. He had 57 yards and one catch On sunday, so I could be back there again for sure and be fine with that I'd say dulcich at 54 in a game where Sure, they They won't score 21 points, but they should try to So after seeing tight end Do you still consider a conco to be viable at 48? Yeah, I'd say a conco dulcich fire move Probably gonna be the the main angles for me And Kelsey will be a great tournament play I agree with all that as well Okay, let's finish up here where the notes future me and I think it's been pretty laid out for us where the notes future me should be We need to be Very receptive to wide receiver in the flex on in we 14. That's what I don't do enough, but I think this week I Like maybe making my default honestly Yeah, I mean that was my idea so that's also my note to future me, but If anything else you wanted to note here uh This might be the kind of week where stacks I usually for stacks, but maybe I back off of that a little bit because a lot of these games seem one-sided Yeah, like do I want to force in a giant in my Hertz teams? Maybe not Maybe I mean like say quants fine slayton's fine like I can do that but like I don't want to force it with them. Do I want to force in a brown? I think a lot of them are pretty high-sourd like chubb. Okay. I can get there. I'm already can get there DP jack can get there but I think that yeah being receptive to Not bringing it back on my quarterback teams. I think that's probably Uh viable as well Okay, that is all that we have here for today for the recap show But we'll give a full preview of the week 14 main slate coming up on thursday That'll be live on the fandal youtube page 10 a.m Eastern and then up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So go search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Brandon if people have questions for you on the tweeters, where can they find you there? On twitter at kudall13 gd ula 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your single game lineups for Saints at bucks will talk to you once again thursday to preview week 14 This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire