 We're gonna talk some forex, we're gonna talk some commodities. Folks, we're gonna talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad. You can check out Teddy's Tiger Forex report, folks, right under the newsletter tab on the front page of TFNN. You can check out a couple great webinars he has under the services tab right there as well. And let's just jump right into it. Teddy Kegstad, boy, where do we kick things off? Good to talk to you on Fed Day. Well, yeah, it's the last Fed meeting of the year, so we can start with that if you'd like. Let's do it, man. What are you looking for this afternoon? I know we just got some inflation data that ties into that a bit. Yeah, what are you looking for this afternoon from the Fed, the chairman, if anything? Well, you know, are they gonna start cutting? That I don't think is gonna happen. I don't even think the speech is gonna go there either after the meeting. I probably, nothing's gonna happen today. It's most likely gonna be a not event. I still think there's a chance of them raising a quarter point between this meeting and the next two meetings still. Especially, we've been talking about this since the last meeting that the consensus in the media is calling a bottom in the bond market and the 10 year market and the yields are gonna start retracting over the next year. And I think that, especially like on Monday, I heard that the consensus is now a point and a quarter to a point and a half easing over the next 12 months. Well, before you start saying that, you have to have them start to say that they're gonna be dovish. This is what they were talking about on Monday and then yesterday you saw some economic numbers where inflation's ticking back up. And this is something that if the Fed is gonna stay firm on the stance that they've had for the last 14 to 16 months, they're not done yet. They haven't confirmed that they're solid in being where they want to be to where they just flatten out. Now, just because they're pausing doesn't mean they're getting ready to go dovish. And I still think that maybe today is not the day, but if we still have some more economic numbers, especially if we have a soft holiday spending season, especially for the holidays, well, I can't see how sometime between now and the next two meetings that we're not gonna get at least one more quarter point before they start to go on just the pausing zone. So we'll see what happens today. Very likely it's a non-event. We've been wedging into the trade into today. So I would say for all of you FX traders especially, if you have a position, tighten up your stops and get ready for either a non-event or a head fake. We could have, even if it's a non-event, we could still have the algos kick up and be kind of a crazy trade. So I would be careful about entering any new positions. I would wait until at least tomorrow and see how the market settles down. And we could have a complete flatline nowhere trade. It's very likely that that's going to be the case today. So, but yeah, I would say be very careful for the next day or so. I appreciate the analysis and how does that, when you think about that aspect of things, the Fed, right? Then my brain goes to next, like, you know, I'm looking at yields, I'm of course looking at the dollar. Do you take that in your, you're looking for some guidance from the Fed maybe or where that goes or what do you think about yields? I mean, we're back to almost 4.15% on the 10 year right now. Dollar's been flirting with about 104-ish, but boy, it's been quite a pullback. Where do you see that, you know, on the, I know you love the 30 year as well. I'm always looking at the 10 year, people love it. What do you think of 4.15% right now on the 10 year? Well, it's great that you're bringing that up. I'm actually watching the short terms more than the 30 year right now. And that's something I think you really have to watch is because they're leading the charge right now as far as the retraction and yield. So I think that you have to watch that spread. People, they'll look at usually one, the 10 year is most watched by most of the people in the financial industry, but they never really look at the spreads between the 30 year and the 10 year or the 10 year and the five year. And right now I would watch that dynamic where I think that, especially as we haven't had a confirmation on what the Fed is doing, that you're gonna probably see some divergence in those markets, meaning that you'll probably see a raising and a lowering trade in the 10 year and the five year that's gonna be a little bit faster than the 30 year, I think, you know? So because we are coming to that buffering point, you know, where we know that they're only gonna hike so much if they do hike at all, you know what I mean? So we are at that kind of a situation. So yeah, I would be watching the 10 year and the five year more for direction right now as far as yields and watch them for a spiking movement, you know, where I think you can see them retracting a little bit higher yields in the short run as we head into the end of the year before we start to really pull back and see a nice pullback in yields, meaning an easing on yields, you know? The market wants lower yields right now. That's obvious, you know? But we haven't gotten the fundamental yet confirmed. And we just had such a rip roaring rally in terms of higher price and lower yield, I was jumping around the two year, the five year, even as you're talking. So, you know, a little bit of a, maybe pullback in price, just some of that move, not exactly indicative of this. Do you wanna talk about the end by any chance? Let's do it for sure. You talk about moves, right? Let's do it, yeah. So, well, we know that last week there was definitely a very big move in the US dollar yen. Think of what was it? Wednesday or Thursday? I think it was Wednesday last week. So the BOJ obviously is back on the move. What is gonna be their future course? Well, I think what we have definitely seen is that they're going to be doing things in 2024. Now, does that mean they're gonna be aggressive? You gotta remember, being aggressive for the Japanese, for the Bank of Japan means that they're actually just doing something. Yeah? Okay, right. I mean, they sat on their hands for decades and didn't do a thing. Excuse me. Now remember, they had the change over in leadership for the BOJ back in the spring. The new chairman over there, it seems like obviously there's new leadership, new direction. Last week was a marker. And I think that, you know, we're trading around that key area of around 150 in the US dollar yen relationship. That's the key level for the BOJ. Now, let's say that we still do raise one more quarter point. That means that on a price basis, we could maybe take out the highs and get the yen up to about maybe 155. But that would cap out that relationship if the Fed is truly pausing, not even that they're gonna start cutting rates. And if they do actually go towards a dovish stance, well, then you're gonna see the US dollar yen come back down to the 120 level, you know, 110 level easily. You know, and that's without the BOJ doing something. So if they actually do something in tandem with us just pausing, let alone starting to pull back on rates because then you're gonna have a divergence in the banking. You know, they're gonna be raising, we're gonna be easing or staying flat. That will definitely weigh on the dollar in that currency relationship right there. Now, is that gonna be the same in other currencies? Not necessarily. But I would expect to see that the new trend for 2024, US dollar yen traders may have some significant trends that they can actually capitalize on next year. And it's gonna be a divergence versus other currencies. You know, so it has nothing to do with what goes on with the European currencies or anything like that. I think the dynamic of the US dollar yen trade in 2024 is gonna be, I think it might be one of the markets that by a year from now, they're gonna be looking back on 2024 and say this was the mover. And I know we got some gold bugs that perk their ears up as they hear that as well, man. Teddy, I appreciate the time. Those are quick nine minutes, man. Look forward to talking to you next week. Last one before Christmas. Have a great week, man. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Thanks, Tommy. You guys take care. Thanks, Teddy.