 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after nine a.m. Eastern time. It's fed day. Do you have your fed hat on? We ready for a pause? We ready for a skip, a hold, whatever you want to call it, two o'clock Eastern time. Today we find out the press conference to follow at 2 30 p.m. Eastern time is going to be especially spicy as the chairman will have some explaining to do, regardless of what he does, as usual, but this is probably to put it lightly, the end of a hiking cycle that's been one of the most aggressive, one of the fastest, maybe ever, going back to at least in my lifetime and many generations in terms of going from basically zero to 5% doing it in 15 months and we are nearing the end of that potentially as we are probably gonna get a pause or a skip. We're gonna get it today. The market loves it. The market has been loving it though. What's it been loving, folks? It's been loving a bank crisis. Pretty remarkable, right? So check out how we're gonna kick off the program, man. We're gonna back things up too. March 7th, when chairman Powell was in front of Congress, I believe that was his biannual appearance in front of Congress, that's when the market freaked out because he said we're probably gonna have to go higher for longer, something to that degree. And on that day, you had a high print in the S&P of 4064. You traded down about 80 points finished at the low of the session. The next day, he was in front of the other chamber, whether he was in the house first or the Senate first, I forget, but it was the March 7th and 8th. He was in front of one. Next day, he came back. It was a little bit easier on the verbiage in terms of how aggressive they were gonna be. And then March 9th, the banking crisis began. And it lasted for two days. I kid, not really. We got down to 3850 and the market's been on a one-way trip and we've traded up almost 550 points, 600 points. You're talking about a 15-point, 15 percentage point acceleration, 15% acceleration off of the lows of above 3850. We're pushing 4418. And it's pretty remarkable, fundamentally. Okay, we're taking a big picture look here before we jump through everything, but boy, it's an important one to keep in context, folks, in terms of where we were coming into that number. Now, there's two elements of this. Number one, yes, things have tightened up a bit, okay? Banks are gonna show up their balance sheets. Consumers are aware of where they're putting their money. Banks are having to compete for that capital. They're hard to pay higher costs in the same degree. So they're tightening their books at the same time. That's causing capital to be a little bit tighter than usual. That could be akin to another 25-basis point hike that maybe the Fed doesn't have to go to, okay? But it's pretty remarkable that that is the breaking of the system that's somehow going to tame generational inflation. I'm not so sure that's the case. And if that's not the case, then how did we get so ahead of ourselves from where Chairman Powell was on March 7th? Well, what could be happening is the stress on the banks is a little bit tougher than we realize, I think, folks. The commercial real estate reckoning that's probably coming in the next couple of years probably gonna weigh heavily on those institutions and the rate that they're gonna have to refinance at is gonna be a huge factor of whether a lot of them walk away, hand those keys back to the bank or not. And yeah, I'm not so sure, you know, a two-day banking crisis. I mean, pretty remarkable, right? To put that in context, when you take a look at it, I mean, I'm sure we remember the days, man. March 7th, remember that day? Chairman Powell was in front of Congress. Market started selling off. It said, hey, we are not there yet, man. We might have to go higher for longer. Two days later, March 9th, you really got the acceleration. March 10th, we finished things off at about 3846. And we came back on Monday and the world was saved. And we go higher from there. Pretty remarkable when you look at the world we've had, right? You put it in that context. All right, we jumped to market so far. A lot of calmness today. We were up to a high of 4428 overnight. Right now we're positive by two points in the S&P. You get the Nasdaq 100, slightly in the red, off by about nine points. Let's see where the Nasdaq 100 is. Says that March 7th, March 9th, March 10th, Nasdaq 100 is up like 30% since then. Remarkable, man. Yeah, 11,700, you're up 3,300 points. Almost 30% remarkable from that price point. The Dow, probably not gonna be up 30% like the Nasdaq. Dow with a steep sell off as you can see March 9th, you come down to a price of about 31,700. You're up about 2,700 points in the Nasdaq 100. Excuse me, Dow up 2,700 points in the Russell is up four points so far this morning. You're probably gonna see some calm action all the way up until two o'clock and then the fireworks begin, of course. Bitcoin this morning, 26,000 up about $130. We jumped to gold this morning. Little bit of volatility as the dollar jumps around this week, gold up by $11. 1969, you get silver up by 17 pennies right now. You got notes and bonds. A little bit of higher price, lower yield. Look at the volatility yesterday, right? As we got CPI data, you had the 10 year go from a price point at the beginning of the day of 113.30 and you traded down over a full point. Absolutely remarkable, man. You jump over, you're talking about yields. You're talking about yields right now 3.79%. And that's where we are right now. Basically, a tenth of a percentage point, 10 basis points is what we traded yesterday in terms of we started the day at around 3.7, ended at 3.8 for the 10 year, higher yield. And what does that do? Doesn't lift the dollar. You had volatility in both directions and look at the action today, man. Weaker dollar as we have slightly lower yields as well, the dollar now below 103. You put this thing on a daily and you may be making the run back to 101.50. Pretty remarkable. Big picture, the reason why I go over that acceleration. Big picture, there's a lot of optimism priced into what's going on today, folks, okay? You get the S&P up about 550 points, okay? And what is that percentage? You're talking about 13, 14% in the S&P that you're up. NASDAQ 100, it's up like 30% over that period of time. Lofty levels to put it lightly. All right, we're gonna jump around a bit. And this is a great piece, man, from another O'Brien. No, John Authors, this is not O'Brien. They got a great O'Brien, I think I have another. Do I have an O'Brien article up here? No, I don't. I thought I had an O'Brien article up here. Maybe I do. Is it a Tom O'Brien? Either way, John Authors. So this is an opinion piece, but man, there's some great information. And we're gonna start it off with this chart. We're gonna come back, we're gonna talk to our man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade Network Fast Market. We'll finish this conversation up later in the program. But this is the best breakdown I've seen of where inflation lies, okay? On the bottom, you have, in the blue, services. As you can see, service is a huge chunk of what is persisting for inflation. You take a look at energy. Yeah, you back things up to the middle of the spike. It was huge. Energy, actually, the only component that is going down right now, bringing down inflation. You look at goods, X, food and energy. Very small number recently. And then you have food up there as well. But what's sticky, folks? Services, X, food and energy, and we get to find out whether the Fed's gonna give that some room or not to catch up with the lag. And yeah, it's an interesting one, man, but it's got a long way to go to get back. Remember, all of these lines together are supposed to be at about 2%. And you can see that the core services number is usually a huge component of that, right? It's usually just services, X, food and energy with a little bit of energy on top. We're gonna get that number down, man. We got a long way to go and we got a Fed about to pause today. We'll talk about some of that other data when we get back. We'll talk to our man, Kevin Hicks. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back in three minutes. Don't go away. We have exciting news, Tigers. This June, Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle will be hosting two webinars, providing insight into his renowned market timing methodologies. 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You got the Dow off by 82 right now. All markets pretty calm, as we wait for a Fed decision, 2 p.m. Eastern Time today and press conference. Ooh, it's gonna be an interesting one. 2.30 p.m. Eastern Time today. And we jump back to that article I was checking out. So, pretty interesting when you see the components that are broken down. As you jump to this four to 5% number and we get to find out today at 2%, whether that matters or not to the Fed, we find out. And to talk about it, folks, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern Time fast market on the TD Ameritrade Network. We got a fast market as usual and we get to find out a lot today. Let's jump right into it. Kevin Hinks, happy Fed Day. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yes, big day, a lot going on here. I think this is gonna be, you know, here's why today's significant, Tommy, because out of the last 10 Fed meetings, something's probably gonna change today, right? The Fed is gonna go from hiking interest rates to skipping or pausing or some type of change in interest rates. And I think that is significant. Now, how Jerome Powell describes that in his press conference and what happens when the Fed speakers, you know, are done with their quiet period and start talking, how they frame this is probably gonna set the tone for the next couple of weeks in terms of the overall stock market. So, you know, I think what you watch for on something like this, where they're probably gonna skip and it's tree hike, does he get the sense? Does, you know, do the dots plot work higher from where they were? You know, currently right now, Tommy, seven members of the FOMC have dot plots higher than where we are right now. Let's see if that changes or that moves up. But overall, you know, the market is gonna take a lot of this, you know, inflation data that we got today, PPI supply chain inflation is still easing. And Tommy, I was looking at some charts before early this morning. And one year ago today, one year ago, crude oil was at $123. Natural gas was at $7.25. The June CPI data was 1.2%. So all those numbers, and look where we are now, and remember, Tommy, we talk about that 12 month measurement of CPI next month, July, that 1.2% is coming off. So just by that alone, the year over year numbers are gonna drop for CPI. So things are gonna get interesting here, but I think Jerome Powell's worried about over-medicating the patient, but there's still some hawkish members of the Fed that are gonna say their opinions as well. Tommy, it's gonna get real interesting. You could call it almost historic and in the context of history folks today. I don't know if it's gonna stand out, but it is remarkable, Kevin, that we're on the day that yeah, we're probably gonna be at the end of one of the most aggressive hiking cycles that at least I've seen and many have seen. We've all seen those charts now in terms of how quickly the Fed accelerated from kind of the zero bound to 5%. They did it in what, 15 months? And you look at some of the other hiking cycles the Fed has been in, and this one, boy, it dwarfs it, and it's taken out three banks in the process. What do you think about the optimism built in right now, Kevin? In the first segment of the program, I was actually taking a look at, you back up, I get the S&P futures on the Thinkorswim platform right now, Kevin. I got it on a daily. I go back to March 7th, which was when Chairman Powell was in front of Congress and he kind of spooked the markets a little bit, saying maybe we're gonna have to go higher for longer or something to that degree. And then two days later, March 9th is when we got some bank stress that really began. Kevin, I got like two days, man. The lows on this market in that timeframe were literally the next day, almost March 10th, March 13th and we're up like 14% in the S&P since then. We're up almost 30% in the NASDAQ 100. What do you think of the optimism that we've had? Because it's amazing when you look at the chart, right? The stresses, the banks, the collapsing and it's been like two days of negative territory and then we take off from March 13th. What do you think of the optimism, man, with the S&P futures now, over 4,400? Yeah, it's been a pretty historic run, right? I'm just talking on the air and if you look at the NASDAQ, Tommy, the 50 day moving average of the NASDAQ is 13,500. That 200 day moving average is 12,200. We are so far away from the moving averages that the NASDAQ, the S&P are both severely overbought. The Russell and the Dow Jones are approaching overbought in terms of the RSI. Now we all know they can stay there for longer than we'd like them to but yeah, this is getting real interesting and the market seized on this Tommy and took off a while ago and the run has been historic. Yeah, and what gets in the way right now? That's the other side of it, right? Because I don't know what gets in the way of it right now. There's a lot of optimism in and we're probably gonna see whatever you wanna call it, pause, skip today and that's a big moment at the end of the hiking cycle we're on and we'll see what the chairman has to say. As you said, what kind of words, what's his language gonna be like to explain where they go and maybe what some of the other members on the Fed grade points descent and how those dot plots look. With that in mind, Kevin, it's Fed Day. You guys talking any equities or are you just gonna focus big picture on the program today? No, we'll be talking equities on fast market because we're a trading show, right? I mean, we'll look at the overall market, we'll look at what's going on with the Fed but when ours got earnings after the belt today we're a home builder. That's always a fun look at Kroger, one of the largest grocery chains in the US has got earnings before the open tomorrow morning. So we have a lot to do, Tommy and still look at the Fed and then once we get done with that show the afternoon we'll be focused on the Fed for sure but yeah, while we wait for the Fed to make their decision we're trading, Tommy, always. I like it. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see probably some calmness in the markets until 2, 2.30 Eastern time and then the fireworks begin. Give us a teaser on Lenard, if you don't mind. We've talked about this before. Boy, these home builders, Kevin, I got it up here, the Thicker Swim platform pushing the highs that we had coming into last year. I got 116 right now on Lenard, rocket ship up from 70 bucks late last year. What do you think about these home builders, man? These, you know, the home builders, they've been, the good news about the home builders is it looks like all the supply chain, all the commodities, all their inputs are all crashing lower, right? From their highs that really paralyze this. And if you look at mortgage apps today, they were spiked higher because overall mortgage rates last week, the third year mortgage came down from 6.81 to 6.77. So overall, you know, what we talk about. Remember, since 2008 and nine, Tommy, the US is still millions and millions of homes lower than they should be in terms of supply. So I think the housing sector is always gonna remain strong. The backlogs are big. And these companies that trade at very low PEs are still making significant money and building new homes. So yeah, it's a good time to be a home builder because they got a little spooked when some of their input costs exploded. But now those are all starting to come down, Tommy. Pretty remarkable how well housing is held up if you told people it was gonna be six to 7% mortgages, man, and housing holding up so well, especially for those new home builders as well. Kevin, I appreciate the time on a busy morning. Fed Day as always, man. We'll be watching at 12 o'clock today and I'll talk to you tomorrow, man. Have a good day, Tommy. It should be a fun one. Should be. Thanks for coming on as always, Kevin. Have a great one. Folks, check it out. 12 noon Eastern time. You heard it. Check out those home builders, man. I got it up on that thinkorswim platform. There's Lenar. And how about D.R. Horton, man? Yeah, above the highs. 115 home builders, man. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the open. Don't go away. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right. But you're not most people, are you? 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Jump to that five-minute chart. Yeah, that's a little bit of a sell-off. Markets barely in the red. Don't expect a huge sell-off prior to the announcement today with so much looming and we're gonna jump through some of the hot takes in terms of what they're doing. It would be a shocker, folks. The markets would freak out if the Fed did anything but pause slash skip. So as a result, that's what the Fed's gonna do. They would have corrected that ahead of time through some of the Fed speak, et cetera. If that was not the case, they did not do that. So listen to the words that they've given. What is hanging in the balance though is some of the points that Kevin brought up, talking about is there some descent there? Where are the dot plots? What are they thinking? Is this, are they really set on maybe coming back with one more hike to make sure that you don't give it a two-month lag? Where is their approach there? I would love to know what the chairman and the voting members are thinking and we get a glimpse of that today. So we get to find out. It'll be an interesting one. With that in mind, to get the Dow man off half a percent right now, you get the NASDAQ 100, barely in the red, off 25 points. Russell barely, we'll call it flat in the S&Ps. We'll call that flat even though you're down by two. Okay, so getting back to this, some of the inflation talk, all right? Pretty cool graphic here when you take a look at where the components are. Services, they call it, what do they call it? Supercore? What's their term? Where are we? Come on. Services, X food and energy. Okay, it's in the blue here. And you see the persistent nature that we are still ticking at almost 4% in that component alone. And you see the way energy has sucked down these numbers to a headline number of 4%. Yes, the trend is your friend here, lower prices, but boy, we got a long way to go, man, to put it lightly. Now, you talk about core CPI. This is the annualized prints of core CPI. Now, here's what's happening though, okay? Is that you're coming off some lofty comps for July and August that we're gonna have to compete with, et cetera, right? But you could say the same thing about April and May as in last April, the numbers were up 7.8% annualized. So you have to compete with those as you go forward a year, but it's persistent, man. There is no deceleration whatsoever from where you are. They talk about shelter in here, okay? In the blue, we have commodities. This is inflation, okay? Commodities, excluding food and energy is in the blue. You see how it is subsided in a dramatic fashion. Well, what happens though? Goods inflation has subsided. It's shelter that now drives the headline and look at shelter picking up in a big way. It's a big laggard, right? We're aware of that, shelter, big laggard. Well, what's been going on with shelter though? Yeah, we've been seeing some rents dip. I talked about this yesterday or the day before in one of the articles talking about you may actually see a decrease in rents on a month over month basis recently, okay? Yeah, they talk about sticky versus not sticky, man. Sticky CPI, okay? Now, when they talk about sticky in here, sticky are harder to adjust, okay, prices, versus you talk about flexible ones such as gasoline, okay? Sticky inflation has turned down but remains very high and once shelter is excluded, the trend over the last three months suggests that other sticky prices are abating. The issue again is primarily shelter, okay? You look at shelter year over year, but shelter may be dipping. That's one thing that you have to consider over here and health insurance actually talk about dipping as well, but guess what, man, they got a long way to go to put it lightly and I would be surprised if even in the back of the chairman's head, if he doesn't say it, anything's still on the table and there's still data dependent. We still got a lot of data to go. They're going with the camp that, guess what, man, things have gotten tight. The stress in the banking sector, that's causing capital to tighten up. You have the treasury just going to market raising a trillion dollars. That's also gonna be a deluge of supply that's going to tighten up some of those markets as well. It's gonna cause a lack of liquidity as they suck up a trillion dollars of capital that's seeking yield, essentially, is what's happening. So we get to find out, nonetheless, we get to find out at two o'clock today and we'll go from there. All right, what else we got going on? Oh, yes, no, the last part of this, okay? Talking about some of what they're expecting here, I found this one interesting, okay? What's Citi doing, man? Who would Citi saying they think they're getting a hike? It's not happening, man. I mean, I know you wanna go contrarian, the words matter. There would have to be some kind of shock for it to be the case. Everybody's saying pause, Citi likes to be the standout. They're saying a hike and hey, if they hike, remember that, okay? But I don't think that that's gonna be what's happening there to put it lightly. And they talk about the different takes of what you're expecting, the fed fund futures. I mean, look where they're looking, fed fund futures, okay? You're talking about 2023, we're sitting at about 5%. 2024, 4.4. 2023, you're still talking about 3.1. And longer term, you're not getting below 2.5, which is supposed to be the natural rate, right? So that makes sense. They get GDP, they got unemployment. Yeah, that's gonna take some uptick, man. I mean, 4.5% for next year and the year after that. What are we sitting at right now, 3.7? Watch out in this economy, man. Yeah, and there's the hiking cycle, man. 15 months, aggressiveness could be, they were going 75, 50, 50, 50, 50. And only recently did they go to 25 for a couple and they'll potentially pause after that, we will see. All right, what else we got? Yeah, let's talk a little bit of Google, man. So they're accused of abusing its dominance over advertising technology to crush competition. I'd say we all kind of know that's going on. But now you have the EU fired off an antitrust charge that strikes at the heart of their firm sales model and threatens a breakup of the lucrative business. So be careful here, man, because I'd say that the EU means business and they should because I think we're all aware that that's how Google gets it done. And look at Google off 1.7% right now. Say, Google's got some issues, man. Not only are they losing that, but it's going to be quite a deal to see how this plays out in terms of losing their monopoly because I already see a play out, man. I got chat GBT. I use it for a variety of things on this occasion at this time that I never would have considered using it for as opposed to Googling something. And boy, this is just the very tip. They've held the monopoly folks for the better part of 23 years on search. And I'm going back to, yeah, it was probably even before, yeah, it was right around there. I remember I walked into my sophomore dorm room, man. And my roommate at the time was my best friend now. I talk about him many times. He lives in Switzerland. Going to visit him in September for his wedding in Spain with Tommy, that'll be a fun trip. And yeah, he told me, hey, you got to use this Google, man. It's the best search on the internet by far. That was probably 1999 or 2000, 2000, I think. In the year 2000, markets were flat, folks. Stay tuned, coming back, see what else we got moving today for equities. Don't go away. We have exciting news, Tigers. This June, Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle will be hosting two webinars, providing insight into his renowned market timing methodologies. 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Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, you have the S&Ps basically up three. You get the NASDAQ 100 flat. You get the Dow off 165 and you got UnitedHealth. The most expensive stock in the Dow off $39, which is 8% as insurers are taking it on the chin. They came out UnitedHealth. And basically what they're saying is more people are comfortable getting surgeries that weren't urgent. That's pushing their cost hire for insurers as they are getting more surgeries, et cetera. And I was checking out some of these different news articles. Let me just take a peek of where there it is. Yeah, knees, hips, especially elderly coming in, much more comfortable accessing services for things like those types of surgeries, elevated demand for outpatient procedures from medical patients. And so yeah, that's a hit, man. You're off 8% and the way the Dow works, which makes no sense whatsoever, is that it's a price weighted index. So here's what's crazy, right? I'm gonna jump right out to some of these. So you got, yeah, check it out. So you got a price weighted index and you have UnitedHealth off $40. Meanwhile, you got a company like Verizon in this index that's not even priced at $40, man. Verizon could go to zero and it would have less of an impact than UnitedHealth trading off 8%. And meanwhile, market cap wise, Verizon is $150 billion market cap and UnitedHealth is $421 billion market cap, right? So yeah, three or four times the size. You're off 8% though, and that's more than Verizon even trades for a price weighted makes zero sense whatsoever. Nonetheless, that's the reason why you're seeing the Dow in particular take it on the chin. Some of the other equities that are taking it on the chin with that is CVS. Any other insurer out there off 4.7%. What are some of the others they listed on here? What do you got? Humana, let's jump around. It's gonna make sense, man, because they're big numbers. And look at that, Humana down 14% almost. Elevants Health ELV is another one off 6%. Just reading the, yeah. Yeah, it was UnitedHealth though that highlighted an increase in elevated volumes of non-urgent surgeries. Yeah, so that's quite a haircut across the board for those insurers and it would make sense, man. You know, you're talking about if you got a creaky knee or something like that. Last place you wanted to be probably if you were elderly was in a hospital for extended period of time if you didn't need to be in the last two, three years, but not the case anymore, which is what you're seeing play out. All right, what else we got pulled up? Speaking of, we were talking about at the Tigers Den. We got a long weekend coming up. Just making sure everybody knows TF&N will be closed. We're only closed when the market's closed essentially outside of maybe the Friday after Thanksgiving. I think we're closed because they got a half day going on there. But yes, Juneteenth National Independence Day, new holiday in the last few years, so it sneaks up on people. And yeah, why not? The Fed should bring on more holidays, man. Get the NYSE closed, come on, why not? But yeah, we are closed with the market on Monday and there you go. You see it how it plays out 2023. It falls on a Monday, which is always nice. I mean, look at it, right? It's like you get May 29th, we get a long weekend. June 19th, we get a long weekend. July 4th, who's gonna be working July 3rd, man? Let's see what happens. We close early on the 3rd too. That's gonna be a slow day. Okay, we like that. And then you got Labor Day when you come back. The problem is after that, we got dry spell, man. Late in the year, we need some federal holidays late in the year because after July 4th, all you got is Labor Day Thanksgiving and Christmas. That's it. Yeah, versus the beginning of the year. Man, we got Martin Luther King in January. We got President's Day in February. March, they skipped, that's my birthday. That's all right, we celebrate that whole month anyway. But then you got Good Friday in April. You got a long weekend Memorial Day in May. You got one in June. You got one in July, August towards the end of September, the summer, and then what? September as well. So yeah, but then what? October, November, December. I guess you're coming into the holidays. Nonetheless, I digress, but markets. So we're coming into a long weekend. We're coming into a Fed decision. You got markets drifting higher, and we jump over to the volatility index right now. Let's take a look. You get the VIX, 1448, still well above where we were last week. Interesting, right? As things get a little bit elevated last week, there was nothing getting out of the way, man. Now this week, I mean, look at these markets, folks. We're up like 2% from where we were last Friday, right? I mean, you got a 40 point boost just from the rollover of the futures contract. So remember that. But even if you take that out of the picture, you still got the markets up almost 80 points, 85 points, something like that on the S&Ps. And meanwhile, when the markets crept up 80 points this week, we've had the VIX go from 1380 ending last week to being comfortable sitting at about 1450 to 15 this week. So pay attention to that one as well, as well. Because I think last week, that was as good as it's gonna get, man, okay? The writing became on the wall that we were coming into a pause slash whatever you wanna call it. And there was a euphoric week and a half period that nothing could get in the way outside of that CPI data potentially we just saw but it would have had to been a shocker if it happened. And we didn't get it. So we come into a pretty historic day and boy, Chairman Powell this morning sipping the coffee, getting ready, would love to hear in his own head what he wants the market to hear. And I imagine he's gonna want the market to hear that yes, we have been in a historic hiking cycle. We are in a restrictive policy rate, okay? There are lagging indicators that are gonna catch up. How much room are they gonna give that lag? That's the key. How much room are they gonna give that lag? And we get to find out at least a glimpse of that when you talk about dot plots, you talk about potential descent. Cause again, it's a historic time. We're at 5% but inflation band is pretty sticky and we are still at a level of 4 to 5% depending on how you look at it. And so there's a lot of lag work to catch up to put it lightly. All right, let's see what else we got going on. Yeah, how about Disney, right? So they shuffled around their movie premieres going all the way out for a while. And they're delaying some of the bigger pictures out there in terms of Avatar pushing them back a bit. We pull up this article here. So they announced a major shakeup of the movie release calendar. I imagine you got Igor there sitting saying, you know what, we're gonna make sure the movies that really matter, we push them out in a methodic fashion. And this could also have to do with the writer strike going on. They're not making probably as much progress as they thought they would when they don't have the scripts to do it. But they revealed yesterday in the afternoon that they're pushing back some of the movies they have as in Avatar was gonna be in 2024. Now they're pushing it all the way to December of 2025. Now they just came out with an Avatar that's like three years in between those Avatar movies. And they go all the way up to 2031. Talk about planning, right? That's when the fifth release comes out. Haven't seen the recent one kicking myself or not seeing it in the theaters, unfortunately. I think it's out there on Disney Plus right now if you have it, but can't imagine it's the same experience watching that on your TV as opposed to going to a 3D IMAX theater or something like that. The Marvel comic universe, some of those get pushed back as well and they actually delayed a Star Wars, but they added a Star Wars as well. Found that interesting. 2025, 2026, we're gonna finish this conversation up because that's when things may start to kick in higher. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner. On the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have markets marginally higher. You get the S&Ps up by about eight points right now and NASDAQ 100 Euro by 12. Let's jump around to some of those fang stocks real quick. We jump to Apple shares, up a quarter percent, 183.81. We jump over to Microsoft shares, up a third of a percent right now. Google a different story alphabet as we talked about. They're off eight tenths percent. We jump over to Tesla shares, down a percent as well. Tesla's been on quite a run, man. Speaking of companies on quite a run, Metta, up about half a percent right now. Jump over to the poster board for AI, NVIDIA. How about that pop, man? NVIDIA, now AMD had a show last night talking about theirs as well. Was that two nights ago? I think it was last night, right? Yeah, I think it was last night that they were at their show. They're up by about 1.5 percent. You got NVIDIA shares right now. Up by a percent as well. We jump over to the 10-year on the all-important Fed Day. Sitting basically where we started off the program, up about 12 ticks. We get the 10-year yield approaching about 3.8 percent. And remember, folks, when you're comparing the risk-free rate of return right now, you're looking at the potential. If you have money out there that you're looking to get into CDs, man, I would get into CDs. Put it in a two-year ladder or something like that. You can't go wrong right now with 5 percent. And that's money if you are looking for fixed income because, yes, inflation may persist, but if it doesn't, and this economy gets hit, you're gonna see those rates get hit. Now, banks are gonna be competing for capital. That is not going away. So the CD rates are gonna stay more elevated than potentially maybe the Treasury or something to that degree. But they're all related, so they're all gonna move in step. And also, folks, what do we got? Tomorrow, our man, Tim Moore. He's got a gold trading webinar going on tomorrow. This is a completely different product from the S&P webinar he did last Thursday. This webinar is strictly how he trades the gold market. You can get in there tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern time. The cost is $295. It'll be archived for anyone that attends. And yeah, he's gonna be talking about cycle analysis, ratio studies, advanced decline in up-down volume indicators, finding extremes and putting it all together. Looking forward to that two-hour webinar with Tim Ward. That is tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern time. But today, we gotta make it through today, man. And we got a wild one to say the least. We finished it up with crude, $70.31, S&P's higher. Go figure, man. But boy, it's been quite a run. A lot of optimism built into this market. Remember that, folks, stay tuned. We got Basil coming up. Have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Have a great one.