 Okay, very good morning to you if you're just joining us. It's just gone through 6 30 a.m. Here in the UK Myself and the team have been up all night just monitoring and delivering via Amplifier live to our community all of the price action from overnight has some really good Moves and just wanted to give you really a summary of what the current state of play is so overall as you can see on the charts here Equity index futures US based are higher. Nasdaq is an outperformer It's up about 270 points and that's even being off its initial high Did briefly see a two-minute trading hole when gains are in excess of three and a half percent The circuit breaker in that doesn't kick into a bit higher up But it's just fatigued a little but still up fairly sharply otherwise The dollar is still firmer albeit off its initial highs and that has kept then both major pairs in negative territory Down 53 and 39 pips respectively in euro dollar and cable gold Lower with some of that dollar strength and then fixed income markets yields lower So both Bunda and the US 10 year higher with oil following suit with the equity move The main takeaway point here has been a pretty early move initial momentum that we saw in a lot of this asset class movement came pretty early on and so just kind of Reverse engineering it. This is the current state of play of around 630 London time and at the moment Joe Biden is just a touch ahead by 211 But I wouldn't really focus on these total figures That would be inappropriate because what really matters is what are the individual areas here? They're going to be the ones that are particularly key now the white states are the swing states or the battlegrounds These are the really hotly contested ones and the ones that really are the deal breaker of who will win this presidential election now Importantly one of the first ones that came out was Florida now There was a little bit of apprehension in the air early on about who would win Florida and that if Biden could capture Florida is one of the first big critical swing states to report then really it would be a Big ask for Trump to win it from that point onwards and Florida is one of the very early ones to come out just after midnight And in fact, this is what Florida looked like in particular and I was going to show you a breakdown which was Yeah, here. This is the state of Florida But this is looking at Florida on a county level and so every individual county starts reporting results and it's different districts and so on and the particular Important one that came out that really moved the market was Miami Dade County That's the most populous one includes the city of Miami for example It did vote quite heavily for Democrats But in terms of comparative to 2016 when Clinton won that same specific area the lead for the Democrats decreased by around 10% So when you then start looking at the rest of the state, which is predominantly Republican and the lack of As much following in that area that was quite a key signal for markets We saw quite a big move on the back of that initially So stocks going bid the idea that well hang about this isn't going to be a blue wave In fact Trump, you know, he's looking quite positive at this point The other key ones then that started to come through were ones like Ohio We've seen just in the last couple of hours confirmed has gone the way of the Republican Party Just having a look at Ohio I think I still have it up here from when it came out as a result 53.3 to 45.2 in favor of Trump I think it goes back to the mid 1960s or so that Every Presidential win has come by way of securing Every single time Ohio so Ohio equals then normally the outcome the person goes on to become the president So it's bit of a bellwether in that sense. It's also quite large in terms of its electoral college representation Then the other big one people were waiting for was Texas. It was looking very tight early on We have only had well, we've had now 94% of the vote in so it's pretty much done that it's that it's Trump He's been declared the winner still a few more raining votes to come in But it's not going to be enough to really move and close the gap on what it was a fairly Comfortable victory to pick up 38 electoral votes for Donald Trump So again another key area that some were expecting Biden to potentially challenge. So overall on the map here the main takeaway is The polls were generally wrong They've overestimated the performance of Joe Biden Trump has done better than expected and he's held on to some of the key so far Swing states now the important part here comes with well What comes next at the moment markets are in a little bit of a hiatus waiting for the next move And that's because really when you start working out the mathematics the really key areas the ones that really count are All pretty much remaining swing states now of particular focus as we've discussed before is Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and what we've heard from various different talking heads overnight is that Between those threes there could be delayed between getting final more definitive results When the US starts to come in in a few hours time So London time this afternoon and then the evening and some even the following evening tomorrow And so if it goes by way of means where this race to the magic number of 270 is literally neck and neck And it comes down to then the final few states It's gonna be really important and markets might well get a little bit nervous and generally that plays out quite negatively In terms of the uncertainty that that would bring also as well Don't forget then that generally the closer run it is if it is very fine margins, then this is what markets were kind of Wanting to avoid which was markets have reacted better more positively in the sense of when there's been more Potential for a direct more clinical outcome the closer it is the more complicated it becomes because it might then entail Recounts legal challenges if it goes through the court system up to the Supreme Court, that's going to take time All of that time obviously there's COVID-19 happening in America. There's no stimulus happening So it could well be a short term Negative until that gets resolved so far as well Joe Biden has just given a speech He's been fairly I'd say combative in his tone saying about we can still do this We can still win we can pick up these Pennsylvania these key areas and in Trump literally as he started speaking started tweeting It's a little bit pantomime, but I definitely think that as it might well be appearing at this point in time If it's going to be contested This could play out for a for a number of days yet So that in itself could well start to seep into some negative price movement At what otherwise has been fairly positive price movement overnight Because markets don't like uncertainty. So that's generally what I'll be looking out for for for the session ahead That's the latest status quo Again on the FT a useful thing. We've been using overnight if you just go to their US election 2020 section These are the remaining swing states and basically with the current count As it's projected at the moment you can see here You can basically tag off these and you can start doing the kind of mathematical probabilities to see What strategic roots each candidate could have in order to secure that magic 270 to win the race in terms of the other key thing It which is the composition of Congress at the moment hasn't really been too much in a way of real surprises there Things going pretty much as expected. So at the moment, it's quite neck and neck, but At this point in time it is looking I would say Perhaps slightly more favorable that Trump will win the presidential race at this point Wisconsin, Michigan, some of these other areas, although we're not near Full results as yet and that will take some time as I mentioned. They are leaning towards Trump at this point in time But the House is looking like it might well stay Democratic and the Senate Republican if that is the case, then that's that status quo Situation which was in fitting with my expectations before the event had unfolded. So yeah, hopefully that's an update That's where we're at with things at the moment specifically on the election So yeah, good luck for the rest of the day. Thanks very much guys