 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Hi everyone, Basel Chapman, sitting in for this hour. Tommy's unable to make it, so I managed to free up some time, so we'll be doing an hour now and an hour later for my show, the Tiger Technicians Hour. Of course, I'm not able to put the fundamentals together as well as Tommy does for his Market Kickoff, together with the technicals. But let's do a couple of things right now. If you're looking at the Dow, this is a very unusual pattern to see it move up sharply from the 24th of February and then suddenly stall, make an H pattern successfully and then take one, two, three, four, five, six and then finally on the seventh and eighth bar, after that 34,179 high of about the fifth or sixth of March, finally it breaks out. It breaks out of a bunch of things. It breaks out of the Chapman Way inside track repellence zone. Look how it kept being contained. But it also did something really fascinating, something that I've studied and looked at for not years, but decades. You see the time span between the 5th of January where the Dow made his all-time high of 36,952 and a pullback sharply to 33,150 on the 24th of January and then made this wedge pattern that I call the falling axe formation. Lower highs and much lower lows and finally find some support around it and it tries to take out that resistance line, Chapman Way inside track repellence line and it does for a day. It goes above it at 35,824 on the, what was it, about the eighth or so, the eighth of Feb and then comes right back and then takes out the support of the 200-period moving average, makes this arch formation the one I call the dreaded edge because it took out the left side low. But look what it did. It made a beautiful Chapman Way green Roman canal at a low rather than at highs where we're looking at. I'll show you that in a moment. The equivalent but the negative one at a high and the rule of thumb says if there is a green, Chapman Way Roman canal, remember Roman canal, I'm talking about candles that your light and fireworks and they explode. Well what happens on this side is if there is a close within two bars above the high of that particular there might have to just change the mouse. That day, then what you're looking at is a chance that the support level is the candle because it's a green candle, the open which was at 32,830 becoming key support even if there's a move up and it usually could be very positive. Well it was positive because four days it went sideways and then it broke to that 34,179 high and then it pulled back and what did it go to? 32,578 so it did. It went just a tad below the 32,000 open of 32,830 and then what happened is it went sideways and finally broke out. But I love this. Look at the pattern from the 5th of January to the 8th of February and look at the breakout on the 16th of March. So you can see the equilibrium, the number of bars on the left side to that high and then the number of bars to that high with a breakout, that was really important to me because it said two things. One is this rally from where we went along that was Tuesday morning pre-market. We went along the Dow, we went along other positions but we added that long position to the Dow and we hadn't been along for a little while and we have a core long way back from April 4th of 2020 that we've kept as a core position but we've been in and out of diamonds long and the DOG short for quite some time. Now what's really important is that I anticipated that we would stall at the 7-way of inside track right here. This is the daily chart of the Dow on the left. Round about the 33,850 to 950 area but instead what happened was Thursday there was a very strong session of continuation pattern of this leg C in the Chapman Wave and in the Chapman Wave if a buy signal gets upgraded to a buy mode immediately you would think that there would be at least four higher peaks that's your obligation in the Chapman Wave methodology to go to a D if you get a buy signal minimum of a 4th highest peak. So now we've got something very interesting. This rally on Thursday closed above the 200-period exponential moving average and you can see it's like a sine wave. It goes up and then down and back up and it keeps swinging around this level. The big question for me is was this a more serious buy signal to buy mode daily that's going to translate. In fact in the weekly I haven't even got a buy signal confirmation yet. It's just a nice big green candle from last week going to what was. Let me show you this one now. This is very important to me. I'm going to move that there and I'm going to expand. This is the weekly chart I'm expanding it. Look out this was just fantastic support and then it broke down to 33,150 the week of 28th of January. Went above it as support and it broke down and now it's become resistance. We're back in the resistance two-fold because there's a trend line to the downside and you've got this slightly rising what about six or eight degrees now it's about six degrees rallying and now we've broken it and the MagD has started to see the histogram improved but it's still negative. Sycastic is still negative at 29% it's just flip positive and the on-balance volume has turned up. So in a sense we've got some technical aspects that are positive but that pink nine-print riveting average under the 14th is still not good. And the monthly chart I had shown my subscribers over the weekend in my market overview was about an hour long. I spent a lot of time going through all these different charts plus a particular chart that in a little later this week will probably be able to get to showing what I'm looking at it for the big picture the most importantly what I had said was in the Dow moving so strongly back above the nine-print moving average all of this is going on I mean crude oil we'll go through that in a moment crude oil is soaring and then pulling back just a little bit and now still back very strong triple digits you've got interest rates pushing higher you've got I even want to talk about what's going on in Ukraine the implications here are extremely negative and as a result what we're all looking at is any rally at this particular point we just have to put on a back burner that's sorry to move towards the front burner well maybe it's the front burner going to the back burner whatever it is but it's only the start of something that we have to follow with a lot of trepidation that's really the word trepidation here so fabulous action fabulous action today we should actually be the futures technically should be down 28 to 33 points the E-mini, the Dow futures should be down about 220 to 240 and we're not the Dow futures are down 37 Dow futures are down 37 and the E-mini futures are down a quarter of a point after everything we've just seen I'll be back in a moment the market kick off Tommy O'Brien's show I'm putting in the hour because he's not able to make it I can't do the fundamentals as he does so I'm just doing a technical analysis and we'll be back in a moment we'd love to take your calls 877 everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of or the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento 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world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors Hi folks we're back Basil Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien it's not a market kickoff show in any way because I cannot do the fundamentals as he does it but I can do the technicals so let's do the technicals and we're talking about the Dow a very nice move to the upside I can't believe that we're looking at the Dow futures only down 36 S&P futures down a quarter after all the bad news but someone had said in the den Muhammad Al-Aryan who's always quoted in the CNBC is a really good analyst with a big picture but he said on CNBC lighten up on growth on this bounce I can't question that because I also we are only long we have no short positions but we are being very selective here so I don't disagree with the concept but I think something I spoke about Friday but I'm going to mention again markets get very bored with repetitive news it's just an amazing thing that at a certain point while the general public is starting to get all fervent about whatever the issue is the market says I've got something else to look at I'm done with this I'll be back but right now I'm just done for it and that's exactly where I think we are right now in a sense the market's done with the warring the context of the war but it's not done in worrying about what is working and why it's working and look at this as I said to subscribers the other and Saturday my over my very long overview webinar video sorry look at the steel stocks look at the Van Egg Vector Steel ETF so let me just do this very quickly I did it during the the 9 o'clock news hour but let me just do this the Dow closed at a high on Friday well there were a bunch of things going on and you would think that because it was influenced by the options expiration on Friday monthly options expiration because it was influenced by the rebalancing coming up at four o'clock because it was influenced by just it seemed like a little window opportunity in the Russia-Ukraine war now this is very interesting because you cannot really call it a war it's an invasion I still haven't read anything about the Ukrainians sending over bombs or rockets or anything into Russia so it's really extremely one-sided I mean you have to wonder what is NATO what is the United Nations why doesn't the United Nations ever do anything why aren't they there yelling and screaming humanitarian they're nothing nothing so that's very disappointing to me so what I want you to do is to say let's just look at the market because the market is basically telling us something oh look at that just missed a nice buy signal because I was yacking away and I was just about to do that so you've got leg D in the one-minute e-mini chart right there but the 10-minute chart looks like it's a big art formation about to do a retest and then 4460 areas and 4455 we'll go straight back to our market so what we're looking at here is that and this is very interesting because if you go to Investors Business Daily they call this let me just go to right here market trend look here's market trend and they say market trend market in confirmed uptrend nasdaq follow through provides bullish sign and some growth stocks pick up steam so they have all these different measures and they look at volume they look at the volume on the third or fourth day etc and then this is a very nice breakout as far as they consider I have a little different perspective in the sense that I need to keep watching that monthly chart because look the Dow futures are now down 42 the S&P cash look at this the S&P cash monthly chart now you remember I spoke about that green chapter we Roman candle at a low and what happens if it goes above for two sessions how the the Roman candle open becomes the support level it might take it up and if it doesn't make a significant he can continue going up which it did but now look at the S&P this is a chapter where we're like yeah I'll do this I'll expand this nicely here open open open there it is that this is the perfect chapter where Roman candle where at the very high of the market 48 18.62 January's high and we were looking at this and saying wow everything about this theoretically based on all the other indices says that this surely how can this be a peak B when in the methodology when you get a buy signal going to a buy mode which is in the monthly chart from the low of 21.91 86 the 20th of March of at low you would expect this is a D that means we've had every single candle except there's one tiny little candle right here that was September October of 2020 which had a slightly lower peak therefore it becomes a peak A and a higher low and it couldn't wait the very next month November breaks out to a new recovery high all time high and it goes above this very long-term insight track repellent zone because the Magdi the way the Magdi is so strong now the Magdi is turned down but it's still a very narrow opening as opposed to right here with the Magdi expanded sharply and then plunged and that was a 35% decline from February to March of 2020 so this is very different because Chapman Wave Roman candle that means it opens makes a fracture opens at a high makes a fractional that you need the wick to light the wick little tiny wick makes a long legged doji candle to the downside a long candle that is and then closes way off the wick that hit the 14 period moving average halfway to two thirds above the low that's that's the Chapman Wave Roman candle the next month February is almost the same thing but the wick is too big but everything about everything else about it says yep Roman candle and we've gone below it inch a month and now we're back almost the opening of this month was at 25 19.57 that's way high that's 50 points from where we are 500 down points so all I can say is that with all the bad news this is fantastic action all right that doesn't mean to say it has to keep going up it doesn't mean to say it has to keep going down just says at this particular moment at 9.25 a.m. Eastern time on the 21st of March 2022 this is the candle we're looking at and so far it is fabulous when you consider what's going on weekly chart fabulous but that's not good enough it's above the 14 period moving average but that 9 hasn't been able to cross above it that's good not good QQQ and the X100 trading right now at 350.45 down a dollar 4 see this is where I would agree with Al-Aryan I would say that within the context of the different sequences we're looking at the sequence of the NASDAQ 100 the NDX100 tumbling from a high of 408.71 now I think it's time to type it in right here I'll put it in over here 408.71 and that was on 11 there was a week of 11 I think it was 25 I think it was 26 22 November and what we're looking at is that is quite a tumble and that tumble is essentially saying that this is a bounce within the context of the site are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets at tfnn.com the tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day subscribe to the tiger's den risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors you could be making money off 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This segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner I'm David White and I'll see you next time. Welcome to the Front Page of tfnn.com It's very nice to be here with you today. It's very nice to be here with you today. I have a question for you guys. Both Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are not to be down 250 right now it could still do that but not to be doing it at this point just speaks to the extremely over sold condition that we are in right now. 45.40 yes it did because the high on Friday was 44.65 40 we did it we did it by 20 cents that's okay this extends leg C in the champion methodology as long as you make a higher high the leg continues remember it's called a floating letter and it becomes a peak as soon as you make a lower high it doesn't matter whether it's the one minute chart the one minute chart or the there it is trying to go to the left side high that was made right there at five o'clock on the 22nd so that's five a.m uh no 17 that must not be that must be 20 uh what was yesterday today's a 21th oh that was last night must be six o'clock okay so that is the high that we're looking oh that was the close on Friday I remember now the close on Friday we're looking at 44.65 and we're looking at 44.56 57 yep we're going towards oh this is such good action come believe it okay so now what what I'm looking at in terms of just click on that okay what I'm looking at in terms of the s and p is that the mag d in the data is so strong the stochastic's at 88 percent I love over 80 percent on balance volume is actually acting like a v-shaped pattern good but not great the relative strength has been climbing all for a week and a half and that's good the weekly chart says there's a lot of work to be done to get that that nine period differential in the mag d to cross over the 14 period of the red uh 26 period exponential moving average and as I say we did the monthly chart I don't want to do that again I just wanted to say the qqq's have come back a little bit now they're only done 80 cents at 350.67 this is a brand new aid because it made a lower low so you have to start the whole process again the dreaded age pattern took out the left side low of the 24th of feb 318.26 ran up turned around about uh what was that that was about March the fifth comes back down and makes a lower low on Monday Monday 317.45 Tuesday a nice rally and then it rallies and it closes above the arch high that's always a really good sign above the third the third of March high of 350.04 looking at the IWM now I'm so fascinated with the IWM the Russell 2000 up 30 cents at 27.58 it has gone nowhere but it does not break down like the others because it made this h pattern which went to a lowercase m and now it's having a third rally in this rectangle formation and it's saying you know why are you ignoring me I'm the small caps and I'm doing darn well when you consider what everything else what everything else that's going on um but at the same time I'm not showing the kind of strength that says I'm leading and it will do that if it can cross and close above the 200 period moving average of 211.97 it starts trading any day this week in the 213.70 or higher area it says aha now you know where there's a place to hide in this particular market if you're nervous about other things because the small caps are actually participating now much better they've held well you know some so many times you you think of a market going down going down what you say is oh anything that's held well is going to scream when the market comes back and the market comes back and it's still holding up but it's not breaking out because it's selectivity it is the tide you have to look at each particular sector and say is it coming from low tide going on its way to a high tide or is it still in low tide with just these little aberrational waves that look on the surface as if the tide is going one but in fact it's going another way and that's really what we're looking at now I want to get to gold I want to wait until the open the open says we're down five at 1923 my suspicion is the gold at a massive move it is still in play because it's it's a it's a yellow icon of geopolitical fear that gold gold icon is where money geopolitically always flows when there's some kind of some kind of turmoil that has the potential to lead to serious repercussions and that's kind of what we're looking at looking at silver silver is also just holding steady exactly up 10 cents at 2618 holding a little bit of the gold but I think also in a consolidation phase high grade copper holding very nicely not breaking out not breaking down but holding okay at 4.69 if it's able at all to get to 4.8 or higher that's going to be great if it pulls back under 4.57 something like that it says stuck in a range for a little while longer we're also looking at the dollar the dollar which is held very well considering it was a leader going to the upside because it is the currency of favor it is the currency that has the greatest um veracity for international trade so the dollar is holding very well it's not breaking out not breaking it's having a high level consolidation basically between 90 I'd say between 99 and 97.50 and we're looking at the VIX index VIX.X VIX index pulling back now it's down a penny at 2086 this arch formation says within the rectangle you can get a move going to the upside in a shorter time frame that probably go to peak A then a peak if it's a stair step move peak D and at D it'll probably be just under or right on or just above the previous high this guy said he had 8.94 but know what it did is it did that in a shorter time frame it did that in the 120 minute chart it went to this rectangle formation it went to peak A, B, C another A, B, C, D it went to a peak E and it stopped just underneath the previous high 38.94 it stopped at 37.79 so it's got the arch formation which says the 200 removing average of 20 2.88 is going to be key for the VIX index remember this is the one that is based on market fear this is really market fear and as a measure right now I'd say I'm not close in fear to the 37 38 level I am holding still in the 20s at 23 that means that fund managers are still buying me for security but I'm not a trend in this particular case on the upside I'm a trend more to the downside giving some support to the market does up 32 S&Ps up 15 what a resilient market this is um now a couple of things I want you to do is the TLT this is Bond the TLT right now he's down again down almost two points at 131.49 look at this try to rally couldn't fill the gap it's towards the low of the range hey yeah yeah I showed this to subscribers over the weekend I'll do it right now because important all right if I can just do that oh we've got a break coming up Basil Chapman sitting in for Tommy O'Brien this is the market kickoff hour but of course I'm giving it a different viewpoint since I don't do the fundamentals as well as over at all like Tommy O'Brien so I'm doing the technical side and you're looking to charge seats return with my triple yield are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter 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hit at 25.41 2.51 2.541 yield in the 30 year look at this the blue is that blue above the oh you can't have that surely you can't have the five year above the 10 year no way no you can't so we're looking at the five year so the 10 year let's go do that first 22.07 what we close is 22.32 and the five years 22.27 I mean that's like I mean talking about flattening the curve oh oh oh oh oh and look at the weekly eye shares of the wood global timber and forestry ETF up at recovery high here not all-time high but at 92.78 98.98 was the all-time high and that was May was it what was that that was yep May of 2021 and look at the HGX the Philadelphia Housing Index oh what an interesting market what a fascinating market so let's just close this workspace I don't want to overdo my charts right now okay so here come the questions let me say first one was Facebook oh and this is the um Baba is trading down a little bit down 274 bumped into resistance uh Facebook was a question let me do this with Chapman Wave automated support resistance levels so Facebook's down three it hit the 210.54 is the uh was the resistance down support it's gone above that let me do it in the white background chart I prefer to look at that um so you've got Facebook a question just as I was typing this in uh yes happy birthday Tommy for yesterday um so STLD which is steel dynamics and I was talking about the steel stocks look at this breakout to the upside 86.40 up 2.19 that's I believe an all-time high is an all-time high um yes oh oh wow is it an all-time high it is definitely an all-time high because this has had huge moves before but this is a fantastic move and this is saying to you regardless of what you read the areas that are moving and steel stocks can't just be moving because there's a bit of a shortage somewhere in the world they've been moving uh since in fact they've just continued to move with a digestive phase in 2021 and a breakout phase in 2022 but before the war started was breaking out so is this part of the economic news that we're looking at here in the United States that's going to be very interesting all right we've got that we've got that uh Facebook was a question Facebook um a nice takeoff from the low that was wasn't Larry Larry was talking about Facebook I think it was Larry wasn't Larry it was said Facebook's gonna have a have a good rally I think bravo great call because it's gone from the 180 what was that low 180 double bottom low triple bottom quadruple bottom low in the 185 area and now it's trading it hit on Friday to 218 the high was 216.80 and today is it's trading down 4 and 212 so I think that this is a really good takeoff but I think there's going to be a lot more time needed for Facebook to get and to even consider breaking into and closing the gap that was made on 248 round number high on the 3rd of February and just the day before it was trading at 320 I want to move and uh so before you can get to the 240 area it's got a lot of work to do our next question came up let me just see if I can get yeah Berkshire hathawaybrk.b I looked at this chart over the weekend I thought that is amazing and this tells you about what's going on in the economy and I think that's why copper's held so well mr copper or dr copper whatever they call it internationally copper's held well and would the ice shares global to burn far street here has held extremely well and Berkshire hathaway is a is a benchmark of the US economy because he is he has not just the stock but he owns companies in the United States from insurance to oil to um you name it he's you know he's just there so Berkshire hathaway making an all-time high as we speak um this is the b shares the 347.55 uh an incredible move up and that you could not see the core economy I know there's a company here Jordans it's a furnishing place we've watched it for for decades because I think one of I think one of our kids went to school with um with uh one of the kids the Jordan kids I don't know but they they were bought out by um Buffett and they've continued to expand and they have they just they do really well and um so he's that's furniture so he's everywhere and I say as a benchmark of the economy as a benchmark of the international respect for our economy based on the dollar having held so well I think that if we can go through the weeds here there's a lot happening that is way more positive than one would expect yeah yeah this stock that we missed by a dollar or something uh three four uh about a week ago Jacobs engineering look at this almost at an all-time high Jacobs engineering I mean look at this beautiful left side right side chapter price movement going towards the 143 82 high or the fifth of January that was the last time all-time high is 149 55 back in November you could this can't happen unless there's something that is positive in the economy so all I'm saying is I'm trying to separate the wheat from the chaff was they say or the news or bad news from the good news and I think this is part of the good news right there's a lot of bad news our next question was could I look at oh oh oh could I look at am I going to be able to get this I think it was team yes team one of my favorites why because when I was in Australia a few years ago visiting my brother he had some friends over for dinner and we were sitting around the table and just in conversation the other couple there said oh yeah yeah our son Australian our son is living in Brooklyn it turns out he's living like a block or two away from where my son lives and what and they said oh he works for this Australian company and as they said that they never even finished the sentence I said team right I can't remember the name Atlassian Corporation yes yes they said and he's gone they had to be worked so that was well three years ago let me just go back three years ago was it when were the when were the big fires 20 oh last year of the year before was it last year in January or whatever it is we were there and during the big fires and I came back and I looked at look at this thing this is gone from about 100 back in 2020 and it ran all the way to 401 it was 483.13 on the 29th of October 2021 and then had a little bit of a pullback to the most recent load in the 230 area straight right now 288 so this fits exactly the area that says there could be a bounce but this is where I'm saying it needs more time I probably would like to see it go sideways and build the base and then it can start its next move so this fits right into the category I'd even put into the category of Amazon which is now up a dollar 93 it's right on the 200 period moving average can't get out of its own way oh could be a Roman candle we'll be watching this one green one in the in the month of truck yeah so as a trade I think maybe but as a position play I think it's gonna need more time see you as I see him sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument 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Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 you want to make 1000 per year on 100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured tiger first mortgage the tiger first mortgage program may be just the program for you the tiger first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hi folks battle trap on the last few minutes of the show for Tommy O'Brien I believe we'll be back tomorrow I just couldn't make it today we're looking at CF industries hydrogen nitrogen trading at 101.33 up 6.08 breaking out this is really good news the other one was CLF there are a whole bunch of questions coming in I'll deal with it in the next show my tiger technicians hour but just let's say that to see the down now it's back down 86 at 34,671 and the S&P's down 5.71 you that's the kind of action you would have expected today of the spectacular move on on Thursday and Friday closing at the highs so there's nothing yet that is incongruent you just this is what you'd expect so CLF is Cleveland Cliffs flat roll steel now there are a couple of things we want to look at you but I do want to talk just briefly about the TLT which is trading down $1.84 131.60 and that says that no matter what the Fed says the reality is that rates are higher they are higher but the tenure is the one that is fixed that's kind of what many many instruments that's what things are pegged at to the tenure and as a result what we're looking at is the 10 and five year are so close together why would anyone want to go to a 10 if they can go to a five shorter period and just almost as within pennies of the same interest rate so this is going to be very interesting and the market really needs a digestive day today I preferred it did make higher highs so we're going to be following that whole bunch of questions about stocks we're going to get to in my show the Tiger technicians are coming up in a few moments so I thank you very much Tommy for not any mean come in at this hour and what we're all looking at is a market that has had a spectacular move off lows on a percentage basis the Dow in down 12% on Friday's closer was done only 6% with all that's going on it's just just the start of a big move to the downside or it's just telling us that if you are selective and you're able to go to the right areas you can survive this quite well and in some cases even make money if like the steel stocks moving so nicely so I'm going to just wrap it up here other than to say the VIX index we were looking at earlier on now it's a little bit better than it was it's up 55 cents in 2442 watch this closely see late through the day it is a sell-off you know if VIX does go above 2510 it actually is holding with 24s it means that it's a technical sell-off rather than the emotional one that says what's fixed high block is plummeting have a wonderful day