 Hey everyone, Lee Lowell here from smartoptionsale.com. How's everyone doing? Today is Saturday, September 17th, 2022. We're back for another edition of our Saturday synopsis. What do we do? We look at the charts. I've been doing this a long time, been in the trading business for 30 years now. Over 30 years, trading options, futures, commodities, stocks, all that good stuff. And what do I use to help me figure out when it's time to get in and out of trades? I look at the charts. I'm a technical analyst, chart reader. That's what I do. That's how I decide when it's time to take a trade and when to get out of a trade. So I'm here to make these free YouTube videos, show you what I see on the charts, what's been happening, what's going on in the world, why the market's moving as it is. And I try to help you see the market in a different way, try to help you understand what's happening, try to look at the market and see when it is more opportune to get into a trade or not to get into a trade. So let's jump right in as we typically do and start to look at the charts. We always start with looking at the indexes, the broad indexes, the broad stock indexes. There are three of them. There is the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and of course the Dow Jones industrials. That's made up of 30 different stocks. We like to look at the indexes because that generally leads the market. Of course they're made up of individual stocks and on a daily basis, there's not a lot of information coming out about individual stocks. So the indexes sort of lead most of the time. Obviously there are individual stocks that have big news items that come out, typically earnings reports. That could help move the market, but in the general sense, we like to follow the indexes because they basically lead the market. And we always look at the SPY, which is the exchange traded fund for the S&P 500. We look at that one first. And then we will look at the triple Qs and the DIA for the diamonds that it represents the Dow Jones industrial. So what's been happening? This week, we had a big down move in the market. Let's open it up and see what we're seeing. Once again, let me show you what's in front of you for those who are new. I look at daily bar charts, open, high, low, closed bars. Each one of these bars is one day's worth of trading. The bottom of the bar is the low of the day and the top of the bar is the high of the day. And then you can see these little teeny dash marks, one on the left side, one on the right side of each bar. That's where we open and close for the day. I've got about two years worth of data here on my screen. I have a 50 day, a 20 day and a 200 day moving average on my charts as well. Those are all simple moving averages down here the 14 day RSI overbought, oversold indicator. I've got the 80 level and the 20 level as my overbought and oversold areas. You can also see these channels right here. These are good visuals to tell you which way on a daily basis the market has been heading. Just to give you an idea of what to look for when to possibly time your trades. And that's what we do. Here at the smart option seller, we sell put options and we sell put option credit spreads. That's, those are our two main gigs. They are more bullishly oriented trades. So we tend to be more in the market when the market is going up or looking ready to bounce. This year, since January 1st, basically 2022, the market has been in this downtrend all year so far. Little bit of an uptrend the last two months but mostly in this big downtrend. You can see the eight months here in this downtrend, eight and a half months. Long in the tooth this downtrend. Getting everyone upset. People are not happy seeing their portfolio values go now. Myself included. So we don't like to see bear markets last this long. We're so used to the markets going up all the time. So in our newsletters, since we take more bullishly oriented trades, we've been very light this year. We're not nearly as close to as many trades as we typically have in a year because the market's been telling us, it's not conducive to good trades right now. When the market's going down, we're mostly sitting on the sidelines or we're taking very conservative trades. So we've been real light. We've been sidestepping a lot of this carnage. Although we've had some trades and we've been making profitable trades, we have been a lot lighter. So let the market tell you where it wants to go. Don't fight the market. Don't try to force your opinions and think that the market should go this way or the market should go that way. Watch the price action and let the market tell you where it's headed. What's the price action? The price action is just the watching the charts. The price action is telling you where the market wants to go. Back when COVID hit, we had the huge downturn in early 2020. This is February and March 2020 and we've been on this bull run since and the channel here just gives you an idea of which way the market's headed. You connect the tops and bottoms and these are just, you can draw these freehand. There's no right or wrong way to do it. Little downtrend here. And then basically since January, 2022, we've been in this downtrend. I had this channel here that was basically started in April. And then you can see middle of June here. We can look down at the bottom. Here's the months at the bottom. Middle of June, we hit a bottom. For two months, we ran up to the middle of August and then we hit the brick wall. We hit the 200 day moving average here and we hit the top. The price action was moving up and it hit the top of the uptrending channel. You can see this channel right in here. The price action was moving up, up, up, up, up and then it came to the top of the channel, the top edge of the channel and hit the 200 day moving average and hit the brick wall and it's been going down ever since. What happened this week specifically? Well, this is where we were last Friday right here. This one bar, this was last Friday, September 9th and it poked just above the down trending channel that I drew. We can see here a little bit. Here's the day and it closed right outside of the down trending channel. And then what happened last week? I mean, this week, Monday we opened up here, hit the high and then on Tuesday we had the inflation numbers come out and inflation didn't really go anywhere. People were expecting it to go down a little and it maybe ticked up a little. And then we had this huge bar. Let me see if I could zoom in here a little bit. We had this huge bar. Yep, this is a bit too much. Let me get out of this. I don't like to zoom on this one. Anyway, we had this one big bar right here. This was Tuesday this week, this big, big bar. Set the tone for the rest of the week and then just we've been ticking down. So here's where we finished yesterday, Friday, September 16th. A gap down, you can see the little air pocket, little hole right here between the close of Thursday to the open of Friday. So we have this, it's a gap, gap opening, we call it. And so the market's just been coming down. As I said last Friday, we have a little follow through on Monday, but of course the market always could come back down into the channel. We have this upside down V channel right here. That's not what we like to see. So the market, this is where we finished yesterday, Friday, September 16th, back inside the channel here. So what we can do is we can take off the lines and we can draw some new lines. You connect some of the tops, you try to make them mostly even here, try to connect as many tops as you can, connect some of the bottoms. So now we have this new channel here. Just to give you a visual, it bounces from top to bottom of the channel top, channel bottom. And now we're just sitting here. This is where we were Friday yesterday. And basically we wanna see some support come in. For those of you who are Fibonacci fans, have been starting to use Fibonacci a little bit more. Fibonacci just shows you some potential reversal areas. Let me pull up the Fibonacci here and I'll draw it. So what you do for the Fibonacci in this case, we're gonna do from the prior swing low, which is the middle of June, we click that and then we're gonna move it up to the highs here, middle of August, it's a rough estimate. So what we see here, and Fibonacci is all about where the pullbacks could possibly end. So we had an up move and a down move. And so far, a lot of people look at the 50% retracement and the 61.8% retracement. Those are very popular Fibonacci numbers. And so here is the 50% retracement right around 397 on the SPY. So we blew through that this week. The 61.8 retracement is at $388.80 something cents. We blew through that as well. And now we're ticking down here. And then the full retracement is all the way down at the full one, which would come back all the way back down to the bottom of June. So people use those Fibonacci numbers. Some people also might wanna put in, not that, let me edit this, put in some other numbers. Some people like, come on, don't do that to me. Here, let's end this right here. And we want to edit this Fibonacci here. Nope, not that, let me try up here. Here we go. So some people like the 786. We can put that on there. We can even put the 90% retracement as well. So it gives us just some more levels to look for. So the 786, that would be 78.6. Retracement of this whole move would be around $377 and a little bit. So that could be the next landing spot for next week, maybe on the $377 level. And of course, we can all the way back down to $362, which would be a full on retracement of this last move here. So it looks like the bears have control. So what is pushing the market? Why do we keep going down? Well, number one, it's really the inflation news headline right now and that the Federal Reserve in the US and central banks around the rest of the world, the way they come back to combat inflation is to raise interest rates. And we have the US Fed gonna make their decision next week, most likely going to raise rates by another 75 basis points, that's three quarters of a full percentage point. And when people know that they can get better returns on their money from fixed income securities or a higher return than they've been getting, they'll pull some money out of the stock market. And so stocks will go down and people will start buying CDs and treasuries and money market funds, online banks are paying a lot more these days, 2.5%, which is great for the longest time. It was at like 0.1%. So people are getting a better bang for their money, fixed income, safe securities sitting in the bank or in treasuries or whatever. And so they pull some money out of the market. So that's the big news that's driving a lot of this downside. But eventually stocks will turn around. People will realize there's a lot of stocks on sale. These companies are great companies, we gotta buy back in. So there's a point where we reach some equilibrium and people start buying in. So that's the SPY for Monday. There may be some more follow through. We may have some support coming in at the Fibonacci around $377. So keep an eye on that if you like to play with the Fibonacci. I'm gonna take this off for now. So here's the SPY inverted V. Let's look at the triple Qs. Same thing, we got the inverted V here. Also had down move this week. That's where we closed yesterday, September 16th. So same thing, you can also try to draw some other support areas, maybe around here as well, right around $280. We'll see. But for right now, the market's telling us it wants to go down. The path of lease resistance is lower. So if you're looking to, you wanna get long, you wanna buy stocks, if you do take it light, take it light because the market is telling you it wants to go down. So we could see some more downside. For me personally, I nibble a little bit as we come down. I nibble a little bit at certain spots, certain spots that I think may have some support but I'm not putting it all out there. I'm not throwing 100%. I'm just buying little bits and pieces, waiting for the long-term turnaround. In the long run, the market goes up over time. Here's the long-term trajectory of the market, having the pullback. You know, this is some things we have to endure. Me personally, I hold for the long run. I know stocks will go back up in the long run but it's a patient. It's a waiting patient game. You gotta have some patience. If you're a short-term trader and you have no patience and you want immediate gratification, it's hard to make money in the market. It's choppy, there's a lot of back and forth and if you're not buying put options or if you're not selling bear call credit spreads, it's hard to make money right now because the market is mostly in a downtrend but it is whippy during the day. Here's a one-minute chart of the triple queues. So here's during the day, look at all this back and forth. Now, if you have a good system, maybe you could make some money off this but a lot of people will buy here and then they'll sell here and they'll get out here and they'll get out here and they get whipsawed around. It's a tough gig playing short-term like that. I like to play for the long run and that's just me. Here's the DIA, the diamonds. Let me move myself a little bit down here so you can see the DIA is the symbol. Same thing, you got the inverted V moving down. Here's yesterday, September 16th. So stocks are probably gonna be gunning for the lows that we hit in mid-June. That's probably potentially the next landing point and then from there, we have to see what happens. We need people to come back and here buying. September seasonally, horrible, horrible month for the stock market. We gotta get through August and September, pretty tough months so we wanna get through those months and then the last quarter of the year is typically pretty good. So let's get through September and then maybe we see stocks turn around. All right, let's look at some individual stocks as we always do and see what's been happening this week. We look at Apple, one of the all-time favorites of so many people. Had the regular V shape, had the V shape bounce but again, the past few weeks has been in the downtrending channel just like everything else. I must have drew this line last week, support right around $150. So it went through it yesterday but then popped back above it, closed above it. You can see a little teeny dash mark on the right side of the bar there. So closed at $150.70. So Apple hanging by a thread on the $150 support right there but if the general market goes down next week, Apple will follow and then it's gonna find some support hopefully somewhere in here as well but there's no guarantees here. I put this long line, I must have drew this a while ago. So maybe around $140 could be the next line of support. How do you find those prior areas of support? Well, you look to see areas on the chart where the market blew up above $140 and when it tried to come back down, it couldn't push through it and it went back up. So that was an area of support here and an area that might've been some resistance back way back when and it was able to push through. So $140, possibly the next landing spot for Apple if it keeps coming down. Let's look at Tesla. And what's the point of showing you all these charts? Well, if you wanna get in, if you wanna be an options trader, you wanna make trades, you wanna understand which way the market and or stocks are headed. You know, if the stocks looking like they're gonna be bouncing, you know, then you could do some bullish strategies. You could buy calls, you could buy call spreads, you can sell puts, you can sell put spreads but if the market's going down and in a channel going down, if you're an options trader, well then you're looking to sell call spreads, you're looking to buy puts or buy put spreads. You know, you wanna have an idea which way the market and or stocks are trending or getting ready to bounce or not bounce or come off some resistance and fall. Then you wanna tailor your trades towards that. You don't just wanna blindly go in there and try to say, oh, well, I think the market's going here or I think the stock's going here. Look at the price action, see what the price action's telling you, then you'll be more informed to make a better trading decision. Tesla, as we've been saying, it's just been hovering around this $300 level. That's post-split, pre-split, it was around $900. It did a three for one split pretty recently. So Tesla held up very well this week while the rest of the market was falling. Tesla was still hanging around $300 this year. This is the whole week's worth of trading right here. These five days hanging around 300 while everything else was falling, Tesla was hanging in there. So people love Tesla. It's got some stability. People seem to wanna buy this thing. And so Tesla held up very well this week. Where is it going? Well, it had the congestion pattern. You can see this triangle, these triangles, those are called congestion patterns. Typically, there's a point where it gets to the apex and then it shoots out in one direction or another. This one went to the upside. Here, at first it went lower, now it's going higher, now it's just consolidating again right around the 300 level. So that seems to be the magnet right now until the rest of the market gets going. If the rest of the market could turn around, start going higher, Tesla's gonna start to go. So I think it's just kind of hovering here because the market is, the market's going down, but it has been choppy. So Tesla's just hanging around 300 until I think the market in general can get back going up again, Tesla will really start to rock it. Probably gonna get back up to the highs, a little over $400 a share. So keep an eye on Tesla. Let's look at Amazon. Amazon down, you can see the channel here. So let's draw a little channel for Amazon. You can see here, you can see the down trending channel. So it gives you an idea of where it's going. Now, if you wanted to try to buy some shares or buy some call options or get both, now you can wait to see if it bounces off the bottom edge of the channel here. Here's the bottom edge. You can see it bounces and comes down, bounces and comes down. So here, it might come down to the bottom edge. And if it does, and you think that you may wanna take a stab at a bullish trade, then wait for it to come down here. And then see if you've got something, see if it bounces or wait for it to bounce first and then get in. That's just, that's how to make higher probability trades. That's all, just watch the price action. So Amazon's in this channel right here, pretty much like the rest of the market. What other big stocks we wanna look at? We can look at Microsoft. Microsoft had been having a tough couple of weeks as well. Look at this, it's just got a big down move. He's less last month or so. And it's come back into this longer term downtrend channel. You can see how it bounces. Okay, sometimes it doesn't get all the way back up to the top edge. Comes in connection with some of the moving averages, but it blasted out, but it hit the brick wall to 200 day moving average here, which is this line. And it just got knocked back down like everything else and inside the channel again. So it could see some more downside. If we just were to extend this channel here, if you can just visualize, you know, Microsoft maybe coming down to, you have to look back towards some other lows here. You can see in this channel how it bounces nicely, but looks like, you know, 240 for right now seems to be, could be that line in the sand. If it gets through 240, then it's going to go down probably every five or $10, it's going to probably start shooting for. So the market is clearly in a downtrend. How are you playing it? You know, you got to be cautious in our newsletters. Like I said, we are, we've been very light this year. We've had so many less positions than we normally do because the market's going down and that's not what we're, those aren't the kind of trades that we're trying to make. And for those of you that are more interested in what we do at the smart option seller, you know, the basis of our stuff is selling put options. So go to our website, smartopsonseller.com, go to the put selling basics tab right along the top here. This is our free ebook. Tells you all about what selling put options is and why we love it so much. Put your name and email address in here. We'll start sending the emails with the free copy. It's just what we do. Our services tab right here, we have our two newsletters, smart option seller and the vertical spread trader. And we also have our one-on-one coaching if you want to get a leg up in the market. You need some help. Want to talk to us? Well, we'll sit down and we'll give you some help. All right, back to the market. So this is Microsoft. The chip stocks still, still getting hurt. This is AMD, let me move this over here so we know what we're talking about. AMD, we got out of our, we got out of our put option credit spread this week on AMD. The market's going down. It's telling us it's going down. The put option credit spread is more of a bullish trade. The market's not conducive to that. So we get out. It's what we do. You know, if the market's not working, no sense of holding on because the market could keep dropping and then we'll take a bigger loss. So we decided to get out. And then we look for, you know, another time to get in. When the market is moving up, then that's when we'll take our next step. You can see Nvidia also down, had this line drawn probably a while ago. It fell below it this week, fell below. A micron as well. Micron just coming down. So the chip stocks, Intel. Same thing, Intel just keeps making new lows. New lows just keeps going down, down, down, down, down. These are, you want to stay out as much as you might want to buy Intel, you know, or any other stock. And if it's telling you it's going down, you know, why stick your neck out there? Why put your money at risk when you're just going to frustrate yourself, get angry that the stock keeps going down. Might as well sit on the sidelines, put that cash into some CDs now, some online money market funds. You get a 2.5% return these days. I know it's not that much, but it's better than losing money by buying stocks right now. So, you know, just some information here, some things that I'm thinking about. FedEx had their earnings. Look at that air pocket. It dropped 43, almost, you know, at the low of the day, it was, what was the low of the day? $155 is another $6 from where it closed. So almost about down $50. $50 per share on the day. Look at this air pocket. So that's tough. Let's look at the long-term chart of FedEx here. Let's look at the monthly. You know, I've been going up, up, up, up, up. Here's COVID. When COVID hit, it actually went up during COVID. But, you know, it's reversed all of that, you know? So, and here's the 200 month moving average. So maybe it'll find some support at the 200 month moving average. But, you know, if you're holding a stock and it drops $50 in a day, it's tough. It's tough. Individual stocks, you're always at risk. Earnings, you know, when we make our trades at the smart option sell, we try to be out of the trades so we're not holding over an earnings announcement. Earnings are every three months. And in our newsletter, most of our trades last about three months or we try to not hold over an earnings announcement because this could be devastating, something like this. So it's tough. What other stocks? We talk about Coca-Cola. Had a rough week as well. Really fell below the 200 day moving average that seemed to have been supported in the past. I know it has fallen through it here and it bounced back pretty good. So maybe this will just be a quick move down and then maybe we'll get a bounce back but it all depends on what the rest of the market's doing. We all know Coca-Cola is a great company, great dividend paying company as well. So I've been looking at some trades to make on Coca-Cola also but it's been coming down. I'm probably gonna have to wait for, to see a little bounce here. But, you know, holding for the long run, probably not a bad thing for Coca-Cola but you gotta pick your spots. Pepsi, also a great dividend paying company coming down to got below the 200 day moving average. It did it here a few times as well and has bounced back but that all depends on what the rest of the market's doing. But, you know, pick your spots. Pepsi, also a great company. Let's see what else we have in the list. Netflix, Netflix did all right this week. You can see right here, it's up $4.75 yesterday and let me open this up a little. So you can see the support here that I drew a while ago still finding that support right in the, what's this, around $220. Seems to be holding there and bouncing. So $220 maybe support for Netflix. Maybe it'll finally get moving but it's got a lot of ground to make up. You know, it was a $700 stock last year, got all the way down to about $175 so it's got a lot to make up for Netflix. Let's see what else we have. Walmart, we always like to talk about Walmart. So Walmart is, here's the uptrending channel and it's coming right to the bottom edge, bottom edge and here's the 50-day moving average, right here, here, you can see the line, here's the 50-day and it's finding some support right on that 50-day moving average. Also at the bottom edge of the channel. So maybe this could be a bottom here for Walmart. If you're looking to get long Walmart, maybe you wait to see if it bounces a little and then you can get in. You wanna make those higher probability trades but I like Walmart here hugging to the bottom edge of this channel. If it falls through, you know, then we hold off but if it bounces, could be a good spot to maybe nibble on some shares on Walmart. Once again, here's, this is Walmart. Let's look at some of my other companies here. We have Oracle, now here's another stock that they may hold some interest for me. Had a big move down this week. I like Oracle as a company so this could be some potentials here if it can find some support, could be good for a put sell in our newsletter. So maybe having to look at Oracle next week like that. What else do we have here? Let me go back and look at some of these symbols. Let's see, what else? Disney, talk about Disney. Hanging right on that 50-day moving average which is right here. Here's the 50-day moving average. Fell a little bit below it. Yesterday, so in the long run, I'm bullish on Disney but it's hard right now, it's hard for a lot of stocks. This is Nike is another stock that I talk about. We're looking at stalwarts, brand name companies. This is just an ugly chart, just ugly. Trying to find some support here. Some of these lines that I drew, they don't really make much sense anymore. Had the uptrending channel and it's fallen through that. Maybe we have a reverse head and shoulders. We've got a shoulder here, a head here and maybe another shoulder forming here which is more of a bullish pattern. So maybe we'll get some bullish action once September gets out of the way. The healthcare stocks, Eli Lilly doing all right, hanging in there, Bristol Myers hanging in there. We just took some profits on a Bristol Myers trade. We sold some put options on that, worked out for us. Here's Pfizer, Merck. The healthcare companies are doing all right. Verizon though, still not ready to jump in Verizon, still going down. So let the market tell you where it wants to go before you put your hard-earned money into the market. PayPal still kind of hanging around just below $100 a share. Try to get some mojo going, couldn't do it this week but really didn't do too much this week, kind of flat-ish. The rest of the market came down but PayPal's kind of hanging in there. Square on the other hand, the other big online payment company is not doing as well, PayPal. It's kind of scraping along the lows there. Costco, hanging in there. McDonald's doing okay, kind of hanging in there. Got support right at the 200-day moving average. Here's the 200-day moving average, this line right here. And you can see it found some support right there. So keep an eye on McDonald's. Could be a possible area that you may want to nibble on. It's got some support there. We talk about Warren Buffett, even he's not immune, stock coming down a little bit but we know in the long run, his stock will go up. This is the Berkshire Class B shares. BRKB, here's the symbol, kind of a little bit like a reverse V as well. You can draw the channel just to give you the visual, right? Just kind of helps you figure out where the market is. Twitter, nothing. Facebook, dropping through the lows, dropping through the channel here, making new lows. So IBM, Google, let's take a look at Google. Dropping through the bottom edge of the channel again right here, it's hitting lows that it hasn't seen since March of 2021. So Google needs to find its footing pretty quickly or else it's gonna keep going down. All right, I think that's about it. Talked about, here's Johnson and Johnson as well, kind of hanging in there. All right, let's look at the SPY one more time. See our game plan for next week. It's in the downtrend. The next line in the sand is probably the lower edge of this channel. The Fibonacci numbers, we looked at $377 a share and then the swing low here around $362. So the market's telling us it wants to go down until otherwise until we see it convincingly break out outside of this channel and starts moving up again, you gotta be on the defensive. That's just how it is. So unfortunately, I want this market to go up but you know, what can you do? You gotta play with what the market has given you. All right, so that's all for me. I hope this video has been helpful. Give me a thumbs up, leave me a comment, send me an email, ask me your questions. I'm here to help. I want to make everyone a better trader. That's why I make these videos. Don't forget to get our free PutSong Basics report. Take a look at our newsletters if you want and our coaching. And lastly, we always take a look at our Warren Buffett thing under the shop tab. Here's a report that I wrote about Warren Buffett. It's another options trading strategy that may interest you. So click on this and it'll give you all the details. All right, that's all for me today. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead and I'll try to see everyone back here next Saturday. All right, this is Lilo signing off.