 So the paper I'm presenting is joint work with Raleigha Dimova over at the University of Manchester. We're going to be taking a look at whether preferential market access by China to selected sub-Saharan countries have had any increasing effect in trade. So from our view, this is an example of South-South Economic Cooperation between, say, China and the sub-Saharan African countries. And South-South Economic Cooperation turns out to be one priority area of the UN Development Cooperation Forum where the DCF essentially tracks the coherence of different policies for economic development. So the important thing to note about the main difference between South-South versus North-South relationship is this quote from ECOSOL, which is South-South Economic Cooperation. Essentially, there's an absence of conditionality. And from China's point of view, you will always hear China say our exchange is mutually beneficial and there are no conditions attached to having relationship with us. So as was presented this morning at the plenary, good economic performance by the sub-Saharan region in the recent times. So I just picked one year data comparing worldwide economic growth to developing SSA region and you can see that this is higher than the worldwide rate of growth. Again, not surprising, starting from a low base. And another good news would be if we look at several indices, those indices on safety and the rule of law show that a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have actually improved on governance and then also have experienced sustainable economic opportunities. So from our perspective, these are positive developments in the region. Now, Africa's challenge related to international trade, which is my focus, is overcoming supply-side constraints, number one. And then number two would be overcoming market access constraint. So the paper that I will be presenting this afternoon touches on the second point here where China's preferential market access to sub-Saharan countries is our focus and I should probably mention that this is not the only program out there. You have the Goa by the U.S. and you also have everything but arms by the Europeans. So it looks like China-Africa engagement, if you read the popular press, is a very recent phenomenon but actually it's not. It goes all the way back to the founding of the People's Republic. So I will just refer you to Broadcom's work. The dragons give to give you that background of long history of relationship of China with the African region. So instead, let me pick up and focus on the forum on China-Africa cooperation which started in 2000 and this supposed to be the main venue of dialogue between the region and China, starting in 2000. So preferential market access was promised by China in 2003. So we will start our analysis of the trade effect if there is and then to what extent if there is an effect. Few years before the program, after the program was implemented and then we'll break the program up into two phases. And let me describe to you what we're trying to do here. So very, very quickly 2003 was when the program was started to be discussed at the forum. So very, very quickly in 2005 we have the implementation of the program in the first phase. So what we do is we collect trade data a few years before the start which is 2005 and then since there are two phases to the program we break the data into two phases. So 2005 to 7 and then 2008 to 2010. So the way the program works is that in the first phase it was only offered to 25 countries and these are the number of items that can enter China duty-free. So I should mention that this item is actually tracked at the eight-digit level using the harmonized system code. In phase two we add six other countries and then 254 more items are included. So what we observe is that we break the data into three phases. And see whether after implementation do we observe an increase in the trade between the country that is receiving preferential treatment for the goods that are entering duty-free. And I will also do similar analysis for phase two where we have six more countries and then we have several additional products. And I should mention that after July 2010 the program has been expanded to a number of items and as far as we can tell some developed countries from the Asia region are also receiving preferential treatment. So we stop our analysis at 2010. So as I have said previously the main research question we're asking here is whether Chinese imports of preferential items from countries that are receiving preferential treatment did it go out because of the program? Yes or no? So just to give you a flavor of the data that we use this is the only level of detail I'm able to get from UNCOM trade at the six-digit level. So this will be an example of the data that we're looking at whereby this particular code, six-digit code in 2010 is roughly about 47% of China's imports from the sub-Saharan countries that's part of our data set. And then if you compare that to the start of the period the share of this particular commodity item was roughly 83%. So these are the data that we are using to do the before and then after analysis in the paper. So what's the distribution of the different types of item that can enter duty-free? So in phase one what the table suggests would be roughly about 24 items fall in this category right here in phase two it went up to 44 items. And also this last two columns here gives you the average MFN rate so in other words this is going to be the rate charge of all trading partners of China. So you can roughly see what the average rates are for those different product groups. So you can see that on average it's not small what the duty rates are. So the idea would be since the products are entering China tariff-free or duty-free in comparison to the other exporting countries maybe there's an advantage to the sub-Saharan countries at least for those products that are entering duty-free. But I should also mention that other items even if they're not on the preferential list do enter China free as well. So for example petroleum although it's not on the list it's actually entering duty-free. So what do we do? So I kind of go backwards in my presentation just to give you some sense of what's going on with the data. And I should probably give the punchline already that in fact we do not observe an increase in the imports of China from the sub-Saharan African countries in the preference products. So to understand the data we sort of step back a little bit and that's why I'm presenting to you this particular result here. So rather than doing what we did first let me show you what we did last just to understand the result that we are obtaining in the paper. So first let's have a look at the following sample. We're only looking at the preference eligible sub-Saharan African countries. So in other words ignore all other countries. Let's just have a look at the sub-Saharan countries that are receiving preferential treatment. Let's have a look at China's imports from those countries and ask the question is the product included in the preferential list is the period before or after the preference and then an interaction between the product and the period. So in other words in this particular analysis we're expecting beta-3 to be positive. So in other words during preferential period for the products on the list you should expect higher imports of China. And then the next thing we do is have a look at only looking at the preference eligible products. So in other words these are all countries now and then you're just focusing on the products that are on the preferential list and ask the same question. So is the country included on the preference list? Is this after or before the program? And then an interaction between is the country included and then is this during the period of preference? And we also expect beta-3 here to be positive. And again this too we sort of did after the fact and this is the initial regression that we actually did. We're looking at all countries in the world that we can get data for looking at all 5,000 or so products again at the six-digit level and we're asking the question of if the country is included if the product is included and this is during phase one. So remember we have two phases in the program that's why I have three interaction terms here. And then we put in several country product here country year interaction fix effects. So we actually don't estimate this because this fix effects number in the millions. So what we do is actually do a sequential demeaning and this is the regression that we are actually estimating. So this is the first model that we have estimated and we get the following result right here. Let me show you here. So this is the first regression that we have actually estimated. So remember we expect this interaction term to be positive in other words if the country is receiving preferential treatment during the preference period and it's the product receiving preferential treatment we should expect positive all else equal. But in the first run we see all negative coefficients so we're doing the full sample we're doing middle and low income only and then just looking at the low income countries. So this was very puzzling to us so that's why we step back a little bit and then actually do this second regression right here. So I wanted to bring your attention to this interaction right here. This two columns here is looking at just Sub-Saharan African countries receiving preferential treatment is the sample and then the positive coefficient suggests here would be if you're just looking at the Sub-Saharan African countries and this is during the period of preference you actually observe an increase in the imports of China from this group of countries. However, if you look at only preference eligible products so the last two columns here is focusing on the country effect because you're only looking at the same group of products receiving preferential treatment you observe the interaction between these two dummies to be negative. So what this suggests would be the countries receiving preferential treatment actually during the period of analysis lower imports of China from those group of countries. So all those three results put together suggest that if you're just comparing the Sub-Saharan countries to themselves during the program and then before and then after the program you do observe an increase. However, as soon as you compare this group of countries to other countries in the world regardless of income level you actually observe a decrease during period of preference. So what we do after that is here I'm only presenting the first phase one result and essentially similar results can be obtained for the second phase. So what we do is instead of looking at the products as a group we actually group them into different categories and what we observe here is that only for other primary products do we observe a positive coefficient for those three samples. No, it's the level, the natural level. That's right. So we're doing like a triple differencing in our analysis. You have five minutes. Yeah, so I have skipped all those due to limited. Well, I guess that's the point and that could be one possible explanation. Actually in the regression and I should probably say this in the beginning although we have this as the natural... Can I play it with you to let everybody finish his presentation then we'll have this discussion please. So just note down your comment. Okay, so I'll answer you later but the zeros are still there. Okay, so the results in general is that we do find negative coefficients as I have suggested previously and I think one possible explanation for that would be because this is dominated still by crude petroleum imports and this is why even a duty-free access you don't see any significant increase in the imports of China. And however, even if we do not see an increase and I probably won't have time to develop this we do see changes in the diversity of the exports of the sub-Saharan countries into China. So in other words, the other thing that we have done is to actually look at some several of those countries and have a look at the concentration of their exports into China. In other words, if you see a positive difference here before and after then this means that the diversity has increased. So since most of the points are above the line you do see that after the fact an increase in the diversity of the types of items being imported into China. And then on the horizontal here is going to be export sophistication before and after. So you see here most of the points again are going to be positive so that suggests comparing before and after you also see an increase in the export sophistication. So I guess that's the other punchline that I'm wanting to describe that we find in the paper. And in the paper we sort of singled out some explanations for DRC and then Sambia and due to limited time let me skip that. But I think what's interesting to note would be that some of the measures that we have obtained we actually compare to different or at least have a look at the correlation to different characteristics and we do find that at least for some of them for example export sophistication you see a positive correlation with a measure of mobile subscriptions. So to conclude preferential market access into Chinese market solution our answer is essentially yes but only to selected countries like for example the DRC and then Sambia. So let me end the paper here and then answer questions later.