 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody and welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly wrap up show hope everybody is doing well. So you want violence, you got violence, right? The market woke up today, did absolutely nothing till about two o'clock. Today, if you don't know was the Fed minutes. They were expected to raise 75 bases, they raised 75 bases, and then the history of violence commenced, right? And you're right now what you're looking at is basically an intraday chart on the NASDAQ, right? NASDAQ 100 to the Qs. If you've been trading for a very long time, there's a word that traders kind of throw around all the time, right? First word is patience, right? Be patient, stay patient. Most traders, again, for the first two, three, four years, they really don't have a concept of what they're actually waiting for. That's kind of the first word. The second word they kind of use all the time is volatility. Traders love volatility. No, no, no, no, no. Traders love average true range. So basically what that means is, you know, before like Tesla and Amazon split, Tesla would have like a $40 average true range. Amazon would have a $60 average true range. That's called average true range. That is the area of the stock that can perform within that range on a daily basis, the average true range. What people use, you know, unfortunately misuse average true range and they use the word volatility. Volatility is unpredictable, okay? Volatility is what you saw today. Violence, right? Mayhem, just out of control aggression. And both sides of the market are pretty much at the point of feeling like a victim instead of feeling like the hunter, right? Like the alpha hunter that most traders are. You want a boring day, right? I've been saying this for years and years and years. You want a boring day. You want a very methodical day. You want a day that is predictable. What today was, was none of those things, right? And once the news came out, they came out with the 75 bases. Well, you saw this really aggressive sell off right from the word go. The Q's literally went from 291 to 285. I mean, again, if that's not called aggression, I would love to see an example of. But what's crazy about it is once Powell started talking and I guess the Q&A aspect of the Fed started, the Q's went nuts. They went absolutely nuts. They literally went from 285 all the way to 294. You're talking about a $6 range down to a $9 move up only for him to stop talking. And the Q's literally went from 293 all the way down to 282. So violence, right? Very, very aggressive violence. I try to leave anything alone that I can't control, right? And I usually stop trading after lunch anyway. I think the morning window, once it closes around one o'clock, I have zero interest of the market. Because again, it's unpredictable, right? Usually it's going to be headline driven. It's going to be headlines out of left field. They say not only the bulls get punched in the neck the first time around, right? Then the bears got punched in the neck 30 seconds later only for the bulls to get a haymaker into the clothes. And the big picture of what happened here, it's not the headlines. It's not exactly what the Fed was talking about. The big picture continues to be this is all happening. Okay, keep this in mind. This is all happening below the 50-day moving average, right? So when you see a stock that's moving up, it doesn't mean it's going higher, right? There was literally one stock. We talked about this. It was literally one stock in this whole formation in the last three, four days that looked very, very good, right? And it had its moments and it had its really good pivots. And even that one, right? Known as Tesla, they took to the woodshed today. Again, it doesn't look like a lot, but you had a $14 candle into the clothes, right? This is violence. This is 14. It's like if you multiply 14, right? 14 times 3, it's the equivalent of a $42 candle pre-split, right? That's violence. That's very, very aggressive. So my advice, especially for newer traders, right? You want to use the word violence. You want to use the word aggression, okay? That's fine. You can use those words. Those words should not apply to your trading. It's unpredictable, folks. I'm telling you that the key to trading is to really try to curb your emotions, right? It's to curb your FOMO. It's to curb every emotional DNA molecule that you possibly have that you're thinking straight, right? That you're thinking with common sense. When you have a scenario like this, how can you possibly put yourself in a position to control your emotions, to control technically and look at the market in a very, very unbiased sort of way? And that's what today was. It was a lesson in what the stock market can do when the unpredictable factor comes, right? When the volatility comes. And again, I've been saying this all the time, for years and years and years. They love the idea of volatility until it becomes volatile. If you survived today after 2 o'clock, God bless you. If you made money today after 2 o'clock, God bless you. If you lost money today after 2 o'clock, again, let this be a learning lesson, right? Let this be a learning lesson of where you fit in, right? Again, remember, boring is cool. Lethargic is cool. That means you are in the driver seat, right? Predictability is cool. This is called an EKG machine. And all EKG machines are doing is playing with your heart. And that's exactly what today did. Looking forward, right? Looking forward to kind of tomorrow's session and beyond. Keep this in mind, right? We had a digestion period right around here before we went lower. We had a digestion period here with even a rally, short-term over the 50-day moving average. We gave back, back, back with the CPI number one lower. And today, pretty much engulfed the last three days of buying. You can see here the green candles, which basically means a higher close than opens. And now we're looking at this 280 level coming up and any close below 280 on the cues. I mean, you can see how much downward traction there is. And if you guys remember, I don't know if I mentioned this on the Tuesday video. There was a massive buying spree. They were coming for the 266 spies for October, not once, not twice by three times. They came for a total of about $17 million worth of spies, the 266. Keep this in mind, at that time, this is what, 20 points out of the money. The next day, which was yesterday, they came for another 15 million of the 262 October puts. So there's a lot of institutional money flow that is betting directional, right? And that's a, it's a very, very big sign. They're betting directional. They're on the right side of the market because we continue to build below the 50 day moving average. And the most important part is they're betting the bottom of this channel here, which is 269, right? Everybody see that at the bottom of the channel here? So that's where they're getting their measure potential bets. Here's the problem for the bulls, right? It's very, very tough to turn around to enter tomorrow's day and say, you know what? We sold off very aggressively. We're going to rally tomorrow. Remember, it's not a rally. It's stocks going up for a very short period of time. And no matter how good of a rally was today and any one of your stocks that you were watching, the end of the day was kind of a demise, right? It was a destruction. Doesn't make a difference what you, what you looked at. A lot of stocks broke down today. I mean, not even broke down continuation of the breakdown, right? Amazon lost this whole range. You guys remember Amazon last week was great. It lost its whole range today. And, you know, it looks like it has a date for this 115 level. They started betting really aggressively on Amazon. Look at Google. They started coming for the short-term 99 calls, right? 99, 95 calls. That's where the directional bets are coming from. A name, for example, like Airbnb, they were really coming hard for this thing, right? That's what I said. That's what you said. That's what she said, right? But they were coming hard for this thing. They were coming for the 108 short-term expiration. Again, that's the bottom of the channel here. So you can see where all these institutional money flow bets are being placed. Institutional money, right? Not retail money, institutional money. And at the end of the day, you can think what you want, say what you want. At the end of the day, the institutional money flow is the most important part, because that is what's driving the underlining securities. So it's very, very tough to turn around to make a game plan for a retail trader going into tomorrow and saying, I like this stock. I like that stock. I like this stock. I mean, how? Right? How? I mean, there's so many stocks that have broken down that didn't rally, that are breaking down more, and they look really, really good. And names like, for example, a name like a Marriott that I don't cover a lot. But look at this close here. You have your first close here in this whole range here. This thing is going lower, right? The hotel space. Look at Hilton. Same thing, right? Same thing, same chart, right? It looks really, really good. Let me give you some technology names to watch. Look at a name, for example. Look at a name like Moderna, right? They're saying COVID's over. What the hell we need you for, right? What do we need you for? So look at the bottom of the range here. This thing looks pretty dismal. You've got Disney, right? If the play is the hotels and the hotels are breaking down, this is the whole leisure group, right? Disney first close below support. Disney starts taking down this channel here, man. This thing has a lot more room to go. So there's a lot of broken names. There's a lot of broken charts. There's a lot of broken spirits. A lot of traders got caught in strength. And the most important part is they're still looking for answers. And here's the biggest answer of the wall. Again, we're underneath the 50, right? Like I said, nothing good happens to the bears above the 50. Nothing good for the bulls happens below the 50. Sure, you'll get your days of reverse trend, right? Or counter trend moves. But at the end of the day, the trend is still the trend. So tomorrow, I still like a lot of names. Like I said, I think goes lower. You've got Amazon, first of all, MetaCutsom, the workforce. They're cutting their workforce. Amazon looks lower. Disney, we talked about. NVIDIA, I'm watching this thing. It's not imminent NVIDIA. But look at this little channel here, this little baby, baby channel here. Today was very strong. Don't get me wrong. Very, very strong. And look at its roller coaster ride, right? You had NVIDIA going from 136 to 132, back to 140, back to 131, right? Right? So moral of the story is, guys, if you're a new trader, you don't run, right? You don't run to the sun. This is what today is. This is why people don't play earnings, right? A normal trader is not going to just gamble into earnings. Because as I'll tell you, it's unpredictable. Even if you have the earnings in front of you, you don't have the stock as results. Well, a fed day is earnings times 1,000. And that's exactly what we saw today. Guys, stay safe. You know, obviously tomorrow, if we can get a gap up tomorrow, it would be great because I'd love to see some of these stocks get stuffed into supply for potential green to red move. And if they lose the bottom channels, we should get some pretty good premium. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. Stay safe. And hopefully I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care.