 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday market update webinar with us. I'm David Madden market analyst here at here at CMC markets Today's date is Monday the 26th of February The time has just gone 12 15 minutes past 12 12 15 p.m UK time and as always with the webinars what we're going to do is we're going to quickly show you the risk warning slides and You guys have read of those before we actually proceed with the webinar itself so I will sit here and Leave the risk warning slides just sit here on this on the screen here You guys have a quick read through those and what I'd be doing is I'll be talking over the risk warning slides and Getting ready for the webinar itself essentially This reporting basically states anything that is discussed on this webinar today is purely My own personal comments and thoughts and opinions and I should not be Should be not be construed as explicit investment or trading advice It's a thing our compliance department Will be happy for me to do and it is fairly standard here at CMC markets in relation to what what we do And there's any videos or any webinars or seminars that we That we hold we do like to have the risk warning screens up on the risk warning slides up on the screen So while you're reading through the end of the last of the risk warning screens I will just talk about what is going on in the financial markets Essentially, it's going to quite a positive session start to the week They could the wider equity market bounce back that's been going on the last normal weeks is in is in is in full swing It's not a massive value we've seen today What is this kind of a it's quite typical of a value whereby it's really slow steady and consistent We we've seen a level on the french market on the cac Today that we haven't seen since the beginning of the month. So for some part for some traders at least the major sell-off that we saw unequally markets at the beginning of the month is becoming a bit of a distant memory Now some markets are doing better than others the market markets are probably speaking ahead of the european markets in terms of recovery But things are looking quite positive In relation to new stories today, we've raised different updates Hammerson group who are a real estate investment trust or EIT? They had quite good numbers out Profits are higher rental income was higher and occupancy levels are at an all-time high and the dividend was boosted on top of that Taking a look at what's been going on in the likes of problem financial It was spec it was uh It was stated in one of these papers over the weekend a problem financial are looking to raise 500 million pounds By a rights issue and the share price has dropped a double digital percentage on the back of that This is the same problem financial who've had a couple of profit warnings last year and the share price Took a took a severe knock last year and investor confidence has already yet there to be Regained but if the due minister rate if they do announce the action rights issue and then it's confirmed and the due minister raised funds It could be looking at paying down some fines and also beating up their balance sheet and if we do that we could pretend to see A bit of a bit of a turnaround in investments investor sentiment In relation to what's going on in the u.s. Dollar u.s. Dollar continues to continue to be weak Which is helping the pound and also the euro What we're going to do now is we're going to take a look at the economic calendar and for those of you Who are not overly familiar with our trading platform if you go to the market pulse tab And the fourth option down is the American calendar It gives you a breakdown of the economic calendar And it talks about what economic events are coming out at the time Once the figures come out they'll be updated But also show you what the forecast is and the previous figure was so you get you can have a find You can have an idea of what economists are expecting going into it And also it'll keep you updated on what the previous number was So you can always compare with the previous month's number on how the reading went So looking to tomorrow I'm trying to find out looking at the big economic indicators announcements of tomorrow The big one tomorrow morning is going to be eurozone the cpi comes out at 10 a.m. tomorrow morning One o'clock tomorrow at lunchtime. We have german cpi numbers coming out This would be a pretty good interest seeing as we're expecting the cpi rate to slip back to 1.5% from 1.6 And it's a bit unusual in that the economic indicators out of germany having quite quite strong recently Manufacturing and services are not too far away from multi-year highs The fuel-styled racing but by and large the german economy is doing really well All employment is at a lowest rate Since german reunification But yet inflation appears to be liking a small bit and even even looking at tomorrow's update We're expecting it to actually decline yet again So it seems odd how in many respects the economy is doing quite well But this is one aspect cpi Level of consumer demand appears to be a little softer than the rest of the economy It's also pointing out germany's most influential Economy in the eurozone and in the eu if their demand isn't too hard for us to save up the rest of the currency block So later on speaking of demand later on Tomorrow at half one we have us durable goods they come out at half one And at three o'clock we will have u.s. Consumer Confidence of tomorrow Turning attention now to what's going on a wednesday overnight. We have manufacturing figures in china This manufacturing report will of course include will have included the lunar lunar new year the chinese new year So activity Is likely to be probably hampered by that and even though economists aren't really expecting much of us Only a fraction of the slowdown its possibility Those figures might come in a little on the software side than expected Wednesday morning at 7 45 a.m We have we have an update from france. It is gdp Our specifically about pension economy and the most recent world would have ticked off by 0.6 percent That's not been approved into the previous reading of 0.5 percent Scrolling down here to um to nine o'clock on wednesday morning We have german unemployment german employment is better to remain steady at 5.4 percent And the one to watch out for is going to be Eurozone cpi eurozone inflation As I mentioned on tuesday, we have german on a wednesday. We have the eurozone inflation I was interesting about that is that mario drage the head of the european central bank of the ecp has often talked about extending or maybe Leaving the door open to additional monetary easing should be required if inflation continues to lag Germany like with the eurozone has has at broadly speaking Decisive economic indicators for this particular one inflation appears to be lagging behind of it So mr drage would like it would like the euro to be as soft as it recently could He talked about how the the strength in the euro recently has probably curtailed some of some aspects of the eurozone growth But if the inflation figures for the eurozone remains remain a little on the underwhelming side That could be an indication that the ecp may either expand or extend their current monetary easing program Looking ahead until Wednesday at half one lunchtime. We have german south. Yeah, we have the united states gdp coming out That's that's one to keep a mile for And as today every wednesday at half three. We have the oil oil and gasoline inventories coming out of the united states Turning attention now to what was going on on thursday We have the kaishin, uh, the private survey of chinese manufacturing that's coming out early early out this thursday Bearing in mind. This is a survey That is deemed to be more objective because it's the private survey rather than wednesday's official survey And players tend to place a bit more weight in the in the view of the kaishin manufacturing survey rather than the official Figure that's carried out by beijing the early hours of When thursday mornings 7 a.m. We have yuki house prices coming out nationwide stating there's their Their house price survey and we're expecting house prices in the uk on year on year basis to grow by 2.6 percent And that'll be a decline with the previous year's figure of 2.3 3.2 percent. So an increase, but we're respecting a cooling of the growth rate At 8 a.m. Thursday morning. We have gdp numbers coming out from spain And then then today that wednesday thursday is going to be the day for the manufacturing reports Manufacturing PMI reports expected from italy france germany the eurozone as a whole and also on top of that the uk We also have the eurozone unemployment rate, which is back to age down to 8.6 percent from the previous rating of 8.7 And then of course, uh, we have the personal income and personal expenditure from the United States at half one on thursday And then at the very late hours of thursday night We have the ck numbers coming out and the unemployment data coming out of uh, of japan that becoming out at half past 11 p.m And last last year of the week, um friday the second of march At nine nine o'clock in the morning. We have italian gdp And then at 10 a.m. We have the eurozone ppi and then the one to watch out for is going to be a canadian um growth rates coming out at half one on the on the friday and then we also have The university of michigan consumer sentiment survey at 3 p.m. Uh on friday There's going to be the big economic indicators to keep an eye on for over the next four trading sessions What i'm going to do now is i'm going to look at some of the most popular markets A few indices a few few commodities and a few currency pairs And if there are any markets that you'd like me to cover please feel free to say so in the chat box So first off the best take a look at what's going on on the footsie 100 For the indices i'll go through a few indices now In the next of the next few minutes and it's fair to say what i i state about the The chart the price action tends to be broadly the same because Largely speaking some indices are doing better than others. We're already speaking. We're seeing a recovery continue on here So what we can see here is In the wake of the major sell-off you have to see a fairly decent Recovery as the market was pushing higher here notice looking at this line here. This is a histogram here at the mac D indicator Which which which is a measure of momentum? You can see that as the the sell-off was as we now know as we now know as uh has way into since The market was pushing higher here and we saw an distinct decline in negative momentum So the selling pressure or the the the the momentum was The momentum that they said or has had was in decline And this is this was confirmed by the positive move in the market itself So the market's pushing higher and a state decline in negative momentum Now what we can see here is we can see actually the market has smoked a positive momentum And the market is edging and the market continues to age higher So the market is edging higher positive momentum is increasing so we could see this this This move last and the next big level to watch out for the upside could be 7400. It's obviously a big psychological number But also it's a price area here. We did act as a support here, but also not too far off it We saw a bit of resistance coming to play in about Three weeks ago this day three weeks would have been monday the fifth of january fifth of february How we can see here is it did active resistance back then So i'll make active resistance again in the future I moved north of 7400 because they potentially bring 7451 the utility moving average onto the radar and if you move above that Anything of markets above the security moving average as a broad indicator As a sign that the market is in fairly decent health and then it should we go Continue to push higher from those sort of levels That could be linking it heading up to the this this level here not seen since late january which would be seven thousand six hundred and sixty nine so in around the region of seven thousand six hundred and seventy Now that's the next potential level to keep my up for on the upside But if you see the market turn over on itself, and I think this this this push higher here Isn't the beginning of a of a new lake higher or the early full recovery if the market does manage to turn over on itself We could be likely heading back down towards seven thousand one hundred Or potentially not as low as seven thousand and if you go south of this figure here That could be a very that that could has a potential to be quite bearish If you go south of seven six thousand nine hundred and nineteen that could be a big indicator that the market Is is going to turn lower yet again and have a fresh leg lower Take a look now what's going on in the germ market Once again not too dissimilar. We had the major sell-off and broadly speaking. We've been pushing higher We haven't necessarily had the textbook example of always Classically mapped out higher highs and higher lows, but it must be broadly seen after the major sell-off here We see the market broadly speaking push higher notice how it's a classic example of lower lower highs Below here below here below here all lower highs and we are seeing broadly speaking higher highs here So higher higher higher higher higher higher here The market did move to come have a bit of sideways trading, but once again It's uh, it's traded this morning. It's traded uh north well just on to twelve thousand six hundred for the first time seen since about About two and a half weeks or maybe in excess of two and a half weeks So that that gives an indication of how far we've come from the recovery But we still the recovery hasn't fully yet yet been recovered So if we do manage to continue to push on higher from here We could be looking at heading up back towards twelve thousand seven hundred forty one, which is this price action here And if you go north of that the next exit price Exhalation to keep an eye for will be this area here Thirteen thousand and if you go north of thirteen thousand We have you know recovered a vast majority of the ground that we've lost and if we go beyond that We could be looking at heading back up towards thirteen thousand six hundred But some traders are sort of a skeptical If you do manage if you if you don't manage to put the press on ahead from here And if you do manage to turn over on itself and I love to keep an eye off forward to the downside With this this price to here of twelve thousand two hundred and eighty one and move below this candle here Could be at least this this level here could be a sign that that this positive move here Was only a correction and we're looking at heading south again So move south of twelve thousand two hundred eighty one could bring us back down towards this this price here Of twelve thousand and seventy two and then of course if you go south of that We could be looking head back down towards eleven thousand nine hundred But the broad sentiment appears to be positive so You know it's It's a bit of a self-affirming prophecy in that when you have a correction We have a large sell-off and you see if our correct itself Some traders who are willing to take on a bit more risk are getting get back in the market sooner All those might wait for the market to push higher and then be more confident that the fear has evaporated But it's a it's a it's a trade-off. Do you want to take on more risk and be buying in early? At a lower price But that they could already you could be in the middle of a bounce or will this actually be Um, a slow steady correction and the markets may return to their previous record highs So it's a similar situation here, but as you can see the u.s markets are in better shape So after the major sell-off here on the dow Jones We can see the fairly robust push higher ever since so a classic example of you know Higher highs and then higher lows on top of that So the market is very much since since the sell-off has been very much in an upward trend If you can we you can even see That the dow Jones has now firmly above its 50 moving average which comes to the play At 25,291 while we remain north of the 20 the 50 moving average this this this this line here It's likely at the market is going to continue to push higher So if we can hold on to this level here the next step to keep a lineup forward to the upside It's going to be 26,000 big cycle edge of the number I'm going to go beyond that we can be linking it heading upwards 26,457 But if you do manage to turn over on itself Again, I know to keep an eye out for could be the water day moving average which comes to play at 24,424 And if you go south of that well, the next the love to keep an eye out for would be that would be the low of Nearly three weeks ago of 23,138 But as I mentioned as we've managed to claw back About say two thirds of the ground that we lost It is looking more smoking that much more likely that we are going to actually retest We've even we've a higher likelihood of retesting the recent all-time high Then we do have actually testing the recent multi-month low I'll turn our attention now to the s&p 500 and it's a fairly similar looking chart on that As we can see here On the s&p 500 What we've what we've seen here on the s&p is a A similar move after the major sell-off the market has managed to push higher from there What we could see is once again where we are above the 200 day, sorry the 50 day moving average which comes into play around at 12 2740 if you remain north of that metric It's it's likely that the market is going to continue on to push higher The next big level to watch off beyond that will be 2800 and if you go north of 2800 We could be looking at this price area here of 2840 Move to the downside should we move lower we could be looking at getting support from the 100 day moving average 2664 and a move south of that could bring us back down towards 2600 And if you go south of 2600 then I need to keep an eye out for the potential to be 2532 Take a quick look now. What's going on in the gold market? So the gold market has been a fairly solid upper trend since semper higher high higher low higher high Granted we did a decent sell-off here But it managed to hold north of the psychology board in the 1300 level if the push higher here failed ran on a steam When I approach The just genuinely high but by and I've probably speaking we are still in it in this upper trend If you continue to push on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the January high of 1366 And if we go beyond that we can be looking ahead in towards 1375 11 that scene Since the summer since June or July of since July of 2016 If the market does manage to move lower lower again, we could be looking at it back down towards this area here of around 1321 Notice how the market actually stopped short of the fifth day moving average So and also on this this occasion here So if we do mention to move south of fifth day moving average That could be indication that we're heading back down towards the 1300 level and I think south of 1300 We may get some support from the eternity moving average at 1286 sticking with the commodities theme and I'll take a look at what's going on on the oil market As I mentioned I'm going to go through some commodities and some currency pairs and then we look to wrap things up 30 markets you would like me to cover. Please feel free to type in the chat box and I'll take a take a look at them So the big picture over there I say Severate months and oil has been this has been in a solid upper trend higher highs higher lows all the way along We have a decent sell-off though in early February, but the market has managed to be sort of pushing higher yet again As you saw how as you saw with the with the sell-off was mirrored by a steady increase in negative momentum But since the market has been pushing higher we've seen that being confirmed by the decline in positive negative momentum And it's not what you swung the positive momentum to the market is pushing higher here all the time Negative momentum decline and it's not what you swung back to positive momentum and we are pushing higher from here So we're currently trading pretty much bang on the fifth day moving average Which comes into play are in around 67 20 if you continue to hold north of here We could be looking at heading back up towards 71 or then beyond that up towards 72 spot 74 Any any move to the downside may find some support in around the 64 45 area And if you go south of that we could be looking heading back down towards 62 Only it's only have a have a decent break below 62 Because then we're looking at heading back down towards 60 or perhaps even 59 51 59 51 of course was this high here back in september Take a look now what's going on in The uh Brent market Well, I want WTI So as you can see it's a fairly similar shape chart It's the the big picture since june last year has been very much the upside the market at us As a sell-off here, we are we have been pushing higher and notice how now that we actually made it decent Notice how on a few occasions last week There was some consolidation there there about either side of the fifth day of moving average But now we can see from here That the market Has pushed it's continued to push on higher here above the fifth day of moving average And I think it holds north of the fifth day moving average at 62 13 We that that could be a sign that the market is going to continue to push higher from here And we could be looking at retesting going back up north of six six dollars a barrel or possibly even towards 67 and 68 Look to the downside may find some support of the fifth day moving average 62 13 or perhaps even down at the 61 level or down at the 59 73 level in here Take a look now what's going on with the euro As I mentioned if there are any markets that you're looking to cover feel free to Talk to me in the chat box and I'll have a look at them So the euro has been a fairly steady upward trend versus the US dollar We did a bit of a bit of a cooling From september through november but once again broadly speaking in the continuation of the higher highs and higher lows classic upward trend An area which has been of importance recently and continues to be so is basically where we are now this notice how we've got a lot of consolidation in around the 123 30 area which we are broadly speaking around now If you can manage to hold north of that we could be looking at retesting say 125 heading up towards 126 But even if you move south of that we could find some support in around the 122 region But if you go south of 122 that could take take us back down towards 122 not that 122 Was an area of resistance on a couple of occasions in september last year and also in january of this year taking a look now and the At the pound versus the US dollar So the big picture is that since march of last year has been in a solid off It's been a fairly Decent trend line support if you draw a line between the lows of march and the lows of august Grounded a few occasions and managed to trade just out of it in november, but but managed to um managed to remain north of it I can see you did a solid upward trend and what we can see here is that We have been a bit range bound recently But we do appear to be heading the the top end of the range the top end the range being of course 141 50 and the lower in the range about 137 64 so A break north of 141 50 could take us back up towards 143 and then of course you look at towards 144 145 beyond that Move to move down side south of 137 64 could look at taking us back down towards 136 59 It's which of course was the september high And even if you move south of that We could be looking head back down towards the 135 50 area Which takes us broadly speaking roughly in around where that trend lines would come into play So what i'm going to do now is going to do a couple of currency pairs and like to wrap things up Finish off I'm going to look at the euro versus the british pound and then i'm going to look at the u.s. dollar versus the japanese yen Speaking of markets being range bound this is a this is a we've been fairly Sideways trading on the euro versus the us stop versus the british pound As you can see here the kind of upper end of the range has been some of the region of zero spot eight nine two nine The lower end of the range appears to be at zero spot eight six 89 and now that we've dipped back below the zero spot 88 area It appears that we're going to appear to be heading back down towards at the lower end of the range at zero spot 86 89 could make well be the next level That we that we head back down towards and it moves south of that back to take us back down towards zero spot 86 But it's only if we get a decent break North of zero spot eight nine two nine Because then we be assured we'd be more confident that this sideways range That's kind of sideways move over the last couple of weeks and months has been just has been broken And if we have north of zero spot eight nine two nine could like to target zero spot 90 And then beyond that we could be looking at heading up towards zero spot 90 49 Right, this is the last currency pair I'm going to look at for today's session and it is going to be the u.s. Dollar versus the japanese yen unless of course you guys want me to take a look at anything for you So I can see here since basically november the u.s. Dollar versus japanese yen has been a fairly Aggressive downward trend so the market at a class example of it lower low lower high And then it's a bit of consolidation here lower low lower high lower low lower high Down here take off take off the um The september low created a new lower low here A level that hasn't been seen for some time on the on the u.s. dollar versus the yen Hasn't been seen Since october of 2016 is giving indication of how how she bearish that move is so hit hit a level here Not seeing since october 2016 the market manages to push higher because as you often do see A bounce back after a large sell-off market pushes higher and of course it appears to be running out of steam yet again now obviously the decision if turns have to make is Was this the bounce back and then we're going to re-test that low the February low and then head down towards one or five and then potentially one or four or or is this going to be the level So by the market actually just turns around from So if we why we if the everything that ran out of steam around the 108 area notice how this 108 Psychological number, but also it was what 108 108 or four was the low here from a few febrees ago Not so the market ran on a steam there. It's not the very least and it feels to break 108 It's likely that we're going to continue in this downward trend and the next step to keep the lineup from the downside Could be 105 54 most recent low and then south of that we could be looking back heading down towards 105 104 But even if you might have to break 108 it's such a Powerful downward trend you'd really you know You'd really want to be heading north to say 109 78 or perhaps even north of 111 To actually really kind of shake off or negate the downward trend that is spending for a number of months now So in terms of actually with the market that's that's being covered. That's it actually for today's session I just while I have you here I want to talk to you about his other aspects on our trading platform Some of the market updates that we do get updated to market insights, which is this type here Market insights can be found under market polls second option down Um, we will have some of the market updates that we do get updated to insight data alerts Um, very the very difference the unemployment or cpi numbers important economic indicators get updated to insight Also, there will be a video recording of this webinar will be posted on this on market insight Uh in the next couple of hours I also want to talk to you about chart forum this chart forum open here Once again, it could be found on the trading platform under say under market polls third option down Market forum itself and the other analysts and actually anyone with actually with the cfc markets account Uh can just effectively write a few hundred words Take a screenshot of a particular chart or write a few hundred words about it And this is the way for you guys and also also analysts to actually communicate with each other And all we do is talk about the kind of key price All we do is talk about the price action and also mention a few levels, which could be of importance Uh, well, that's all for me this week. I do want to thank you for tuning in. Please tune in to future webinars Um here, uh, I'll see if the markers would be delighted to have you back again Uh, what I do want to do is thank you all very much for tuning in. Have a good trading week and good luck