 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is Friday, which means decide to talk some player props for week number two across the NFL We're gonna break those down with Tom Vecchio getting his read on the week two slave may prop betting perspective and try to get you some winning Bets over at Fandall sportsbook for NFL week number two This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm typically we have JJ Zachary's on this Friday show He is under the weather for this week. So JJ feel better. We'll talk to you once again next week But feeling his shoes is a guy Fully capable as you all know of doing so that is Tom Vecchio find Tom on Twitter at DFS Underscore Tom Tom of course an editor a number fire and a guy you've heard plenty here I'm covering the swim and will continue to hear plenty down the road as well Tom. Happy week two to you How you doing? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me. I think Fridays in the NFL season are absolutely very interesting Hopefully we get some clarity on the injury reports No players that popped up over the past few days and really set up for an exciting weekend It looks like it looked like an okay week setting up It's like, okay We got a couple like guys banged up and then the Thursday injured reports rolling It's like the entire Bucks team is just gone. They've left this they've left this planet We saw Alvin Kamara sits and we saw Deandre switch sit again T Hagan's absent not do-do stuff But it may complicate him getting through concussion protocol Thursday was bad Tom kind of a bloodbath and that means not a lot of props posted But we do have some but I think that The good thing about this is that uncertainty is kind of where we can hopefully Catch the books napping a bit. So although it's frustrating although it can be tough for us You know filling out DFS lineups for prop betting. It's probably not the worst-case scenario, right? Right. I think that uncertainty brings a lot of potential value You know the Bucks were a team I had my eye on specifically with their wide receiver situation because I highly doubt Chris Godwin's gonna play right, you know He's gonna be on a limited snap count last week anyway, and he has his hamstring injury Mike Evans I assume he'll play. I think Julio. I think they're just resting him simply just you know veteran rest days I think he could present a lot of value in terms of probably wise on their part, right? Right, just a yardage or any time touchdown because he's probably the best option that they have You know, I don't know if you want to buy into like the March on Lattimore versus Mike Evans Like, you know shadow narrative or whatever it's gonna be, but Julio could be an option this week Yeah, we'll talk about the Bucks potentially later on we'll talk about some situations you're looking for and outline some hopefully For week number two before we do that though quick reminder that our college football week three betting podcast and our NFL week two Spreads money lines totals podcast are both already posted here on the covering the spread podcast feed find that by searching for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast while you're there hit subscribe We are on the air five days per week now during NFL season So find that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well Also, big news Fandall has an all-new mobile gaming app Fandall face-off Fandall face-off is where you compete in quick fun games against other real people for real cash It is all sorts of games that you're familiar with like home run derby wheel of fortune Puzzle and strategy games the Pat McAfee kicking game and more contests our action pack and last between two to five minutes So you can play on your couch waiting in line anywhere else wherever whenever on your schedule Plus you can practice for free any time whether it be head-to-head multiplayer or larger tournaments Fandall face-off has something for you plus in most contests You'll be matched against players of similar skill levels So you'll never be totally overmatched even as a beginner face-off is also tied to your fandall account and wallet So you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app visit fandall.com Slash face-off or download the fandall face-off app in the Apple app store today to get in the game age and location Restrictions apply void were prohibited see terms at fandall.com Slash face-off dash terms or terms and conditions Let's dive in now to some prop bets here Tom for week number two before we talk about the actual prop bets So I want to talk to you about your specific process What you're doing a prop bets because we've heard you talk on the show here about season long props, but Single-game props obviously a very different beast. So what's your preferred market? Which market are you? Do you think you're best at and why do you think that's the case? Well, I think the the short answer for this would be in terms of what I'm targeting the most is anything that has value Right. It's it's a good line. You know, it's a good number on it. That's going to be targeting I think one of my favorites would be probably quarterback passing attempts just because that can be highly You know projected accurately in terms of game flow game script teams passing tendencies What they do on offense like those sorts of stats are can be really really accurate in terms of you know How many passing attempts a quarterback will have so I'll go to any line or any any market within for players that I think has Value I like the number, but I think one of my favorites is probably passing attempts because We get so much information from these teams on their usage and their tendencies And I think that really leads to really really accurate numbers for attempts for quarterbacks So higher spread games that have low totals probably aren't gonna be hitting the overs But something like last night for the chiefs and the chargers, you know, we saw Justin Herbert Cruz pass his passing attempts total So that's the problem spot that I probably go to most often Are you digging into like past to run ratios to try to determine that? You know, what's kind of the what's the secret sauce for you in terms of deciding what the proper number is there? Right, so I'd look at you know, just their pass rate overall or just past play percentage I think high spread close total games I think are a good indication of that and then I'll look at just general historic Trends what we see in games that finished like that. I was not too much this season going back to last year How often did they pass? You know those sorts of things? I think past play percentage and you know past versus runner probably the starting point and then you want to add in the game environment You know pace what we're gonna be seeing for expected pace of that game How many plays they should be running and kind of break it down Then I'll look at projections on what we have a number of fire Some other place across the industry average those outs and go from there Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense And it's kind of the plus of that is that we can get a read on past run ratios are really fast Because we've got week one data on that and like you said, that's a pretty sticky thing So let's talk about that more broadly in terms of what we can take from week one because we do have data on Player usage like you said past run ratio, which of the data we saw week one Do you care about? Which are you ignoring actively? You know, how are you kind of handling the week one element in betting week two? This is is always a great question this time of year It's like what are we reacting to what are we overreacting to what are we not reacting to enough? And I think ultimately for me a lot of it comes down to would be the counting stats Valuing those less. Yeah, because I'd rather look at a player's usage Rather than the actual production say, okay, is this player actually involved in the offense despite there being some inefficiencies You know, Joe Mixon had 27 carries. I think it was in week one. He only had like 80 yards It's rather inefficient, but we know he's gonna be involved in the offense So, you know questions about their offensive line Joe Burrow getting sacked a ton of times like they have some issues there But we know that Joe Mixon still didn't be involved So I'd rather look at their overall usage rather than specific efficiency From one game sample size and knowing that he's gonna be seeing 20 or so total touches per game So I'm not worried about a player piling up ton of yards or touchdowns wherever might be in week one I want to see They're involved in the offense where they're being used in the offense for running back You know inside the 20 carries those sorts of things rather than say, oh, they didn't have a touchdown I can't go back to them for this week, right? I was gonna make a joke about you know, you're not sitting safe on Barkley's rushing plus receiving number at like 190 But his reception receiving yardage profit is 25 and a half That's actually I was gonna make a joke, but that's actually pretty enticing So maybe I'm overreacting to what we saw in week one But you know it will circle back to him later on and as I mentioned not every product market is up yet We wanted to kind of get this to you earlier because these numbers move pretty fast And if there's a bad number that gets hung you want to get in on early So our our goal is to get this out here Right as stuff is being posted which means we might not have every every market available, but we do want to Kind of position you to hopefully find the right spots targets. Let's talk about some of those spots. You're looking at Tom We're looking to buy the situations for roles that are changing and things like that Because I get us inefficiencies in different markets Anything stand out to you week one in terms of roles or situations that you think We might want to target whether the prop is the market is up now or not Yeah, there's a few I think one of them it jumps We don't have yards props for this team or for this game overall But it would be the backfield situation for the New England Patriots Which has always been in an interesting situation over the number of years that Bellachic has been there But this is a pretty decent split of touches between Stevenson and Remandre Stevenson and Damian Harris when the time on recovery went on IR earlier this week There's obviously a lot of talk coming out of training camp that you know, they don't have an offense coordinator It's gonna be switching between Patricia and judge and all these sorts of things But there was some talk from Bellachic that he liked what Remandre Stevenson was doing in past protection They were using him in passing down roles and Damian Harris I believe his line for a touchdown is sitting at plus 110 We just double-checked that real quick for Harris anytime touch on that Damian Harris is plus 160 Excuse me Remandre Stevenson is at plus 230 That's the spot that I want with Stevenson because if we're looking at a near split And there's somewhat of a positive indication for Remandre Stevenson I'm gonna be taking the player that has longer odds that I don't think this is like anything groundbreaking But it's gonna be a coin flip between the two running backs. Why not take the one that has longer odds? So the Patriots are generally hard to get a read on anyway But I'm just gonna be going with hopefully some positive coach speak from Bellachic However much stock I want to put in that. I mean he said something positive about a player on his team He says like positive stuff about the opposing teams punter all the time Like that that doesn't matter but like something about his own team That's at least intriguing and I think that the good thing too with the Stevenson part of it Is like you said, he's probably gonna be the more likely guy to get the passing game work there And what that does is it gives you multiple paths to hitting also We've seen running backs against Pittsburgh get a lot of work in the passing game mixing the nine targets last week I believe all nine were before overtime in that game I I know we had a lot of work before over time in that game But overall we do see backs get a lot of work against Pittsburgh So Stevenson plus 235 for an entire touchdown there could be a spot to go to and also you check out the receiving props For Stevenson once they are posted on the Patriots side of things as well Good. Yeah, the next one to jump back to what we mentioned earlier would be Julio Jones Yeah for the roles that are changing just Complete uncertainty with the Bucks wide receiver core Godwin's probably to miss Evans is gonna play Do we want to go to Julio knows Cameron breaking the mix? How often is he gonna be targeted? Like that's the situation I want to bind to but there's no yards or touchdown props listed for that game at all Yeah, and they probably won't be until the injury report comes out given that Julio didn't practice Evans in practice Gage is banged up too. Let's say Julio or Evans drooled out Would you be looking at anyone there or would it just be a situation? Maybe you're looking at the under in that game at that point. It has it's still 44 and a half I'm a little bit surprised hasn't come down given all the offense vendors on both sides of this game Right. The under would probably be the play for me in that spot You know it would depend on what? You know for nets touchdown prop would be out if they stick to their running game a little bit more You know Cameron Brady's always good for like two receptions for on three targets one touchdown 16 yards Like that's always the spot that I'll be looking if it's gonna be like plus 350 or something. Yeah Yeah, for sure braid is annoying is what I would say for as a DFS player it bothers me a lot, okay So we do some yardage Totals up for a couple of games Are there any sending out to you there that you like or any other situations you may turn to once yardage? Numbers are off to see if you can find some value in other spots where we might not have a number just yet Right one of them we spoke about briefly prior to coming on would be Aaron Jones for the Packers receiving yards over 29 and a half This is a spot that I think a lot of people were interested in looking at for the Packers overall as an offense What were they gonna be seeing no Devonte Adams? No MvS this year. What was the split can be between? Jones and Dylan in the backfield and I think you know as I mentioned Previously on covering the spread in August. I think I'm gonna see Jones playing more of a Alan Camaro Lining up out wide lining up in the slot to save him and leave that rushing like hard rushing work to AJ Dylan So if that's gonna be around 29 or 30 where it's gonna be for Jones, I like the over on that It's also a bounce back spot for the Packers and and frankly Aaron Jones is the most trusted receiver for Aaron Rodgers and the Pasadena, you know, there were a lot of a lot of talk after last week about Some of the mental errors for some of the receivers from Aaron Rodgers and that's gonna happen If that means a lot of you know easy dump downs to Aaron Jones I'll take that number. I also believe they said after the game They needed to get the ball in Aaron Jones's hands more So it's kind of a coach speak type situation in that in that regard as well And I think looking at the the way the backfield broke down there I Think a lot of that was because the game was pretty much over and I know the score was not super wide But you could tell the Packers. I mean Jordan loved playing that game that should tell you all you need to know So I don't think the split there was as cavernous as it may have looked at first glance I knew the artist props three before we move on to touchdown props. No, there's a I'm waiting on some I'm waiting on some teams. I actually for all these to be posted with the injury reports You know, I was big on AJ Brown last week So I I want to go to receiver on on the commanders I just don't know who it is yet. Yeah, depending on what that that line is gonna be Okay, so we'll check out the commanders receivers once those are up I also do think the Saquon Barkley 25 and a half receiving yards number is Intriguing is what I would say there. Let's dive into the touchdown props now. We do have a lot of these posted We do have a lot of those in most games the touchdown props besides the Stephenson wants any out to you Mark Andrews plus 135. I think is good. He's by I'm gonna say by far But he is the number one receiving option for the Baltimore Ravens and we're getting at pretty solid plus money I think that's a spot that I want to be going I think we should see some decent points in this game between Miami and Baltimore think that's solid Michael Pittman is obviously interesting because we know it's a favorable match of going up against Jackson Nobody popped up on the injury report the most recent time the most recent day on yesterday Thursday And then Dale Darren Waller also plus 135 Not sure what we've seen from the Cardinals defense this year or lack there of defense and you know Kelsey put up a pretty solid performance against them and when we're looking at Devante and was a minus 200 for a touchdown not a spot that I want to be going But we know that there's obviously a very strong connection between Carr and Waller specifically in the red zone and if we're gonna be seeing a lack of tight end defense or a Failure against tight ends from the Cardinals defense. I think plus 135 was pretty solid Yeah, the the Cardinals last year pretty good against tight ends, but I think they might have had a three to There are three touchdowns to tight ends last week I know how Kelsey got one did Jody Fordson had one, too Yeah Kelsey have two or is that Kelsey had one Jody Fordson had one I thought that Noah Gray had one, but he must have just had an end zone target, but not a reception I have a lot of Noah Gray and dynasty, which is why I care about this but it was to Jody Fordson and Travis Kelsey Fordson kind of a Receiver-ish type guy, but so was Darren Waller. So I think that one does make a lot of sense too So plus 135 on the wall into any time touchdown in plus 135 for Mark Andrews as well I know the prop bets sending out to you on the board right now for week two Tom Not as of now. I think that this game between the Cardinals and the Raiders I think passing attempts for both quarterbacks could be in play just because we're looking at a higher over under It's a you know one score spread. I think that is solid Also going to probably receiving props for Denver I think that they obviously need a bit of a bounce back spot would be interesting Bangles Cowboys. I'm pretty hesitant on that game just because we're gonna be seeing Cooper rush at quarterback I think this could be a slower low scoring game. The one I would go to I think would hopefully be a buyback spot or now that I've seen this one just got posted but yardage props for Rams and Falcons Is now posted since we came on Allen Robinson is going to be intriguing to me I think there's obviously a bit of an overreaction after week one We saw the Falcon's struggle on the outside last week versus Mike Thomas So if Cooper cups going to be lining up in the slot, I assume Someone of the Falcons defense going to be focused on him It should leave someone of an opening for Allen Robinson who's already in a good matchup, you know defensively I think that at 49 and a half is at least interesting and his any time touchdown for Allen Robinson is Plus 130 What's your take on that? Seems appropriate. I would say I think I think they're trying to get us to bite back on that one Based on that the one I wanted to ask you about actually is going back to Bangles Cowboys game other any time touchdown Joe Mixon is minus 135. That is a It's a short number But I still think there might be value there. Is that dumb? I think that's a good number. Am I wrong? No, I don't I certainly don't mind minus 135 I would say I have a A little bit more retolerance for laying a little bit more as long as there's value there Again, we look back to last week and I said, you know, he didn't score This 27 rushing attempts. He has all these targets in the passing like he's involved in the offense Like we know that and despite not finding the end zone I think minus 135 is is still pretty good against the defense that Looked good last week, but it was also week one against an offense that didn't really have it all together. So I think that's fine. I wouldn't one question I have about the Jets. I know this kind of off the board I I know it's not just specifically about the Jets. It's about like bad-ish offenses in general Like they're going to score some points this week At least you would hope they would score some points this week Yeah, as I'm seeing right now, it would be micro carter plus 220 for the first jet listed for a touchdown Like do you have interest in going to quote-unquote bad offenses and simply taking long odds because My question is do they score? I answer that's my question as well It's like if anyone's going to score it's going to be them But plus 220 for the best offensive player at least listed by the book is pretty good Yeah, and you can also run on the Browns. So I could see that being a situation where potentially There could be some value there. It does seem like they have a pretty I know that breeze hall got a lot of work in the second half last week But everything they said about this backfield a lot of distribution has been pretty heavily favoring michael carter So I don't think that's a bad number By any especially because like the browns second area is very good. If I were the Jets I would not be testing them. So I think the biggest question is do they score That's kind of the primary one. I would have that's what I have like week to week I see these No quote-unquote bad offenses like listen the first player listed is plus 200 or plus 250 If anyone's going to score it probably should be him. Yeah, uh, most likely I want to circle back to denver. You mentioned them as being a spot you want to go to I have I live in road islands I wrote out in sportsbook pulled up. So I'm just picking your brain from my own personal interest But uh, we got jerry judy 57 and a half courtland sudden is 54 and a half. I think those should be flipped I'm pretty sure sudden should be higher. But that's just me. Uh, givante 20 and a half receiving yards Interesting they there's the report today that he will be the primary passing game back for them Albert oak away bonhomme 30 and a half any number sent out to you across those I think the sudden one might be the one that interests me most at 54 and a half potentially taking an over there But any read for you on those I also find them very intriguing this week Yeah, I don't have those listed for me yet the the receiving props But givante had 11 targets on monday night, correct 12. Yeah, he'd 11 catches. I think 11 catches He had 12 targets and you said he said 20 and a half or 29 20 and a half yards 20 and a having That sounds pretty good to me. All right. Here we go. I got this we're gonna do this I don't have any listed yet, but well, it's it's wrote out in sportsbook. I don't think you can bet there So, uh, you know, um, most people can't I can um, I'm gonna pull this up Not that you know shot for the best line and see what you got but I only got one We have to assume that 12 targets Is not going to be the standard correct, but it is against houston There's obviously positive coach speak that they want him involved as the primary pass catching back, correct uh, yeah, I think Like once I see the numbers posted for me. I mean connecticut like yeah, I'm gonna be on board with with williams I'll be on board with judy and and sudden. I think those are both obviously good spots Well, I took it. So we're good to go now got givante over 20 and a half I do think the seguan one is interesting too, but givante that's that's pretty fun as well That is tom ofecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom and check out He's been writing prop pieces for the island games Uh, so make sure to check those out over at numberfire.com if you're about to watch Monday night football you want to get some bets in check out tom's work over at number fire to get some player props For those island games tom, you'll be back here on coming to spread plenty So i'm looking forward to having you then but thank you for swinging by for today Good luck to you with your prop bets and other stuff in week two and we'll talk to you once again soon Thanks for having a good look to you as well. Thank you again. Check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom I am on twitter at jim sonnis check out all of our other podcasts from this week on the covering the spread podcast feed And also up on the fan dual youtube page. We'll talk to you once again next week Have a fantastic weekend and good luck with your bets This has been this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network