 Good afternoon and welcome to the week ahead video with me, David Madden. Today's date is Friday the 31st of January 2020 and the time has just gone 1230 GMT and I'm looking here to next week, which is Monday the 3rd of the Friday the 7th of February Now before we take a bit a look at the the big events of next week let's discuss the big events of this week and essentially the kind of major story of the week has unfortunately been the coronavirus It the tragedy has now been deemed a global emergency by the World Health Organization Fortunately the death toll has been steadily rising and so has the number of confirmed infections and with that we've seen traders Cut their positions in a global in global stocks and pour their funds into Assets that are deemed to be lower risk such as gold essentially the view from the markets is that the fortunately predominantly the crisis is not is a problem in China and China's the second largest economy in the world and the view is that if If China undergoes an economic downturn or slowdown because of this we need the ripple out effect could be China's demand for from everything from oil metals luxury Western brands transport transport tourism flights tourism all the sort of impact could have an impact on companies this is stock markets all over the world So all of those major sectors have been impacted. We can see here on We're taking a look now on the other 50 hundred to begin with We can see that the footsie has fallen to its lowest level in seven weeks Lowest level since mid-December in solid in an aggressive downward trend the last few days if you break below 7300 I could take it down towards 7200 and even potentially down back to to the early December lowest The footsie to be fair has a disproportionately large amount of oil and gas and mining companies in this in its composition So it's a bit more susceptible to kind of perception that China's slowing down that being said, you know a lot of Manufactured goods in Germany are sold over in China as well. So we're seeing a fairly aggressive sell-off in the DAX We're at lowest levels last seen in kind of early ish January. So what do we close if you press and lower from here? We could be looking at our targeting thirteen thousand or down to twelve thousand nine hundred Seeing as the fortune the bulk of the crisis is centred around China I take a look at neighboring at neighboring Japan. I take a look what's going on on the Nikkei 225 now It's in a third. It's a it was lots of ground recently We're certainly lower than we were this time last week But we're kind of holding up above the lows of yesterday about the sentiment does appear It does appear to be still negative if you take out the lows of yesterday could take us back towards This is all here down around twenty two thousand four hundred It's only really if you get back above the 50 moving average year Which is nearly at twenty three thousand six hundred could then we begin to think, you know what? Maybe the downward trend has been shaken off I take a look at what's going on With the S&P 500 now it did take it did take a big hit at the beginning of the week a Good portion of the ground has been recovered. But nonetheless It still is in it's it's it's still south of 3,300 and a while it remains below that metric, you know We could see sentiment turn lower again and should that be the case I should be fall below the lows that are that we're seen on Monday It could take us back to the 50 moving average this blue line here down to 3217 or even this kind of sort of consolidation in around 3200 self So I could as an area provides provide support we should we see any further moves to the downside In terms of the other kind of big stories of the week just come a better reserve kept interest rates on hold No, no surprises there But what was a bit of a surprise to some traders at least was the fact that the Bank of England kept rates on hold On even during this week there was market pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a rate cut about two weeks ago The probability on the market was in around 70% of a rate cut And after all the talk yesterday The Bank of England voted 7 to 2 to keep rates on hold So it was quite the slice of in the end for all the talk And what's it not what that happened what and the reaction was a decent enough move to the upside in the British pound Versus the US dollar and British pound, you know push also higher against the Euro and the likes so pushed higher against the US dollar It's back above the fifth any moving average this this blue line here if you can hold above that metric It's likely we could see further gains be made and we could be looking at retesting the latest ember high in around one spot 3284 it's only really if you have a decent break below this zone here in the kind of 129 area Could then we begin to get thinking, you know what maybe we're in for a bit of a few more losses On the the pound versus the US dollar now looking ahead to next week That is also worth pointing out. I think I make political news, but not much an economic news This video has been recorded on Friday the 31st of January At the time I just you know, it's just gone 12 30 GMT Excuse me if the UK is set to leave the European Union Later tonight It will it will leave the European Union, but it will then be in the transition period So it will effectively abide by the rules of the European Union and that transition period is going to last for basically the rest of the Year, I think it's gonna have we're gonna have a lot of political headlines In the months ahead of us I don't predict any major movements in the British pound in terms of volatility just because Until we have a clear idea of what the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union looks like after the transition period Which that will end in late 2020 early 2021 Until we get an idea. I don't think we're gonna see much more in terms of starting volatility. I could be wrong But that's just what I think Speaking of The the British pound and volatility. We're looking at big events one of big events of next week I was gonna be in play is going to be the US non-farm parents report And I'm taking a look on our economic calendar here, which can be found under news and analysis and already We're looking at the headline figure for non-farm perils came in at 156,000 which have been improved on the previous reading of 145 year-on-year earnings are supposed to increase from 2.9 percent to 3 percent and the In terms of the actual unemployment rate itself The unemployment rate is supposed to hold steady at the 50-year low of 3.5 percent So out of that out of those figures, I would argue that you know The earnings component is probably one of the more useful ones because that's basis Americans who earn more tend to go up and spend more The unemployment, you know when you're unemployment rate is there. They're about It's at 50 year lows. It's unless it's hard to Gain more it's hard to create more jobs. You know the US economy is almost a full employment So that's going to create a lot of volatility that report usually does we also at the same time Let's not forget about it We also have an update from the from the Canadian job support and we'll be out at the same time So it's quite likely that we could see a fair bit of volatility in the dollar versus the Canadian dollar I'll take a look now at dollar CAD So the Canadian dollar has been hit pretty hard recently Because of the weakness in the oil market and with that we've seen a decent move to the upside in US dollar Can it first the Canadian dollar? We're back above this trend line here We're pretty much running run into the tour to moving average here If we can continue on that for trend we could be looking at target highs over December north of one spot 33 The other big events of next week We have the Kaishien survey of Chinese manufacturing and services That's going to be in play because it gives an idea of what's going on with the Chinese economy You know any kind of science and witness the Chinese economy Would be kind of exacerbated potentially given what's going on in relation to the crisis We have the final reading of services and manufacturing PMI reports from the major eurozone countries from the UK and the US Not like a nice enough flavor of what's going on in The in Europe and the US but it probably won't have much of an impact because it is the final reading the flash often provides some of the volatility We have numbers out next week Q4 numbers out from Google's parent alphabet we can see here that the share price has been on a phenomenal run We're not too far away from the old-time highs That were achieved Only only a few sessions ago We're still very much in the upper trend If we look to kind of press on higher from here, I'm sure we take out the kind of 1500 level We could then be going into kind of further further Record higher territory and even if you pull back support could be found in around 40 hundred or from this blue line here the fifth the day moving average We've an update from the Reserve Bank of Australia They are quite likely to keep interest rates on hold to a quick look at the Aussie dollar It's been under massive pressure recently given that the Australian connectivity to China. It's impressing lower here It's fallback to For a four month low if you continue to press a lower recovery you try getting a zero spot 66 On the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar Well, so next week we have fourth-quart numbers out from BP Their shares been hit hard already because of the underlying price in the old because the underlying movements in the in the oil market So if you press a lower and the share price has been pressing lower So if you drive lower from here, we could be turning it for 55 or potentially for 40 We also have numbers out from bar developments. We have Quarterly think fourth quarter numbers out from Twitter as well as Uber We've been talking about a lot of stocks that may have been underperforming recently because of what's going on in relation to In relation to the health crisis. So I'll leave you on a high note It was only Only recently bar share price at its highest level since the credit crisis So it's in very much a strong upward trend if you press on higher from here We could be linking your targetting 840 50 so on support But even if you do have a pullback support could be found from this blue line here The 50 moving average in around seven spot 732 That's all for me this week. Thank you very much. Have a good trading week and please cheer next week