 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. Where's my thing here? It should be. Do I have it? Did I not bring it up? I did not bring it up, but I will right now. As I said, as always, that no matter where you're at, as long as you're here, let's start of the show. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So what do we have going on today? Well, we're down 30 on the S&P, Dow's down 44, Nasdaq's off 244. There's a few things going on out here. I haven't listened all day long too much. But here's the big headlines. We've got big trouble in a little China. A couple of things going on there. First, a couple of the companies are trying to raise some big cash to take care of huge margin calls that may be in the neighborhood of $2 billion for the nickel blow-up that we saw. Well, now it's almost a little over a week now, right? And apparently, that's just one of the issues. Of course, the other issue is nobody, although they want to list their stocks here, no one wants you to look under the covers and see what's actually going on in these companies. I railed a bit about this on Friday. And that discontinues. It's just getting worse. Most people think that a lot of these stocks will have to leave the New York Stock Exchange. But the question is, what's really there? Who knows? Maybe these companies are making money. Maybe they are not. There are certainly two sets of books. One that they hand to the New York Stock Exchange and one that is local for anybody investing in China locally. And those two sets of books on almost all the companies do not match. Most people are now saying, in fact, a couple are saying that the China stocks are actually uninvestable as they will probably all get delisted within the next year. Of course, there's been some big shutdowns in China too with COVID that's starting to weigh on Apple a bit. And it's unclear of whether this is true or not. There are some people out there with conspiracy theories. Amazing how many of these conspiracy theories over the last couple of years have actually turned out to be true. But certainly starting to weigh on whether Apple will be able to actually assemble as many of these smartphones as they want. It's been kind of one of the ones that's been pointed out. But off another 2% today, 151, 24, 25. So just a little under what is what's out there for support. Most people thinking 152.50 was support. We're about a buck underneath that. The volume's good. Is it enough to get to 18 billion shares we had before in the overall market? We're doing about half that now. But we haven't gone and tested the lows. That's still, what, 41.15? Think that 41.14 something like that on the cash. So we'll see about that. Other things going on had a listener say, hey, I remember you were talking about Tam. Jim Liebenthal at lunch brought it up. He brought up two things. I watched the video real quick after the guy said something. I went and found it on the website. And for the most part, there's not a lot of things to look at. He was basically railing about people buying price multiples of 40, which if you're talking about new companies, not beyond the scale of reason. But Tam has always been and why the guy emailed me. He goes, they brought up Tam. Totally addressable market. Anytime you see that, I've always said it's time to run. He was just surprised that someone else actually brought it up on TV. But just if you want to hear something that makes me think that every time I hear it, a skunk just farted in the room, bring up total addressable market because it's almost always used by scammers who are way off on either their predictions or just pumping a fraud outright. But total addressable market, that's like, you know what? We've got a total addressable market of X and it's always something that's ridiculous. It's always go, you know, there's eight billion people on this planet. If we just get 10% of them, you know, that's 800 million. That's, that's all we need. And it's always against this total addressable market. And it's almost always a smokescreen for not having a really good story that probably would hold water. South by Southwest started and of course all the people that were Gaga over things in the past. South by Southwest really got its start by introducing Twitter to the world. And of course, a few years ago, it was all about the bitcoins or cyber cyber coinage. Well, they've moved on to all those. Those are all old hat. It's now they're all in the camp drinking Kool-Aid on NFTs. So if you thought you were able to avoid a bit of that, continue on. I've got a bunch of emails asking me what I think the outcome of the war and is going to be with Russia and that I have no idea. I am kind of weirded out by how many people that have been against war in the past suddenly becoming giant warhawks. Not exactly sure what that's all about. I think they tend to forget that the opposite side has some nuclear weapons, but certainly the one size fits all and not able to change or challenge the narrative has me kind of worried much like early 2001 when there wasn't any discussion about what's the best policy. Not just we've got to have one and it's all out as other folks said, but there was always going to be something bad that's driven home. I think the Patriot Act is one of those things that happened from 2001 and 9 11. And of course, we've seen it used to almost topple a president here in the United States illegally. And of course, nobody bothering to wonder at all. So I don't know the coverage is stilted. The propaganda is everywhere. I don't know how to handle that if I don't get decent news to the contrary, but all the big folks that hate free speech are on the bandwagon of making sure we only hear one narrative. And that always makes me worry. The one hour time change is upon us. The markets do act a little differently for the next couple of weeks until our daylight savings times in Europe coincide. Just be knowing that 11 30 is not a magical time anymore. And we'll be back and talk about make evil to wrap this up. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. 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This powerful suite of tools leverages instant trade filtering and strategy formulation to show you emerging trades before they happen. For a limited time, you can save $100 off your first month by using the promo code upgrade and you still get a 30 day money back guarantee. So you have nothing to risk level the playing field with the TAS Profile Scanner, which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn. You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. The turn one of the most interesting things going on in finance right now is the big lawsuit from a hacker and Taylor a company that makes beyond there are a lot of machines for retail restaurants and that kind of stuff. They make the ice cream machine for McDonald's and some hackers decided to fix a problem that's been ongoing for 18 almost 20 years now with the ice cream machines of McDonald's that any of its folks that actually are what do they call them franchise ease are forced to buy by contract but do not work and have big problems that are starting to look like McDonald's may have a problem that is much more like the mob and trash hauling in New York than anything else apparently this lawsuit is now turning over some stones that no one wanted to be have seen there may be a much bigger troubles afoot for McDonald's finding out that they were much more like the mob than a kindly hamburger store near you at least the corporate version of McDonald's about a year ago there was a YouTube video that went viral with over I think it's got over 10 million views now that deep research why you're having a more likely to have a machine down at McDonald's that is 100 times more likely to be down than the exact same machine at Wendy's and others and the only thing missing in this thing is the corporate types from McDonald's coming by and asking the franchise ease if it be a real bad problem if your windows were broken yeah we could probably help you out with that so there are some people at their talk and Rico and certainly the the feds are now involved in looking in to what's going on but much bigger troubles afoot out here and no one would probably think about it in ice cream but certainly these guys are going to probably see a lot of this stuff on the franchise side laid bare and why not a direct party we're going to probably find out that there are bigger problems afoot with McDonald's tie-in with its manufacturer which of course probably against about 20 or 30 or 100 laws from the federal trade commission on it but maybe people still buying stuff there I think I went by once and tried to get a cup of coffee but I haven't been there in probably a year I think it may be a year anyway look at McDonald's give me a call today 877-927-6648 email me at path at tfnn.com to do what do we have here Pete says great call on the TLT where's the next level on support we got our gap down we've got to 131 95 that's the March 18th low we're about a nickel away from it actually on the low the volume probably going to be a little light today probably going to hold up through the Fed so don't get too excited just yet but yeah we're going back to this low on March 18th in front of the Fed you do have three nice gaps out here and so you could be in a three-gap play if the Fed is a little bit dovish coming up here in the next day or so so I would you know anytime I get three gaps like this I'm generally the one to go ahead and say I'm audios and I've had personally just very very long term short on the TLT and I got out today so I'll get ready to do it again unclear if the Fed is going to do much of anything that makes this worse but yeah it could bounce you could get all the way back up to 138 139 but my guess is after that then you're looking at much lower and there's some spots out here 129 128 but then you go to a nice gap that's been around for a very long time at about 125 that gap goes back to August to first of 2019 and 26 million shares so we've got some more stair steps to go it may take a little bit more you had more energy on the way down in a shorter amount of time off the December 3rd high than you did from the run all the way from March 18th of last year up to that December 3rd high you've already had more energy and more shares out on this other right hand side of this leg it is not a good look but my guess is 128 then 125 and it may take a little while for the markets to catch back up but like I said risk award here is not as good as one would think you could get down you could fill these out if you've been short for a while I'd move to the sidelines ideally the best thing that could happen to me is this go up fill all three gaps and then head on back down but and I may or may not be that lucky as G7 in the den says one headline could turn all of this around he's looking at the QQQs I think and lighter volume was take a look look at here. It's not that much lighter your last low out here was 131 million shares you got well you do have a lighter today let me put it that way you had a 116 on the 8th and 131 on February 24th so today you're in here with 54 million shares to get a signal you would need to close back above 318 26 that's a February 24th low when you got the reversal I'm thinking that they can just sit there and grind this thing down maybe very slowly over the next day or two but remember that the QQs are being heavily sold right now by a couple of big time Chinese investors that are raising cash to go after at least one of them has almost two billion dollars in losses on the nickel and these guys are having to raise cash and why the LME has been closed for nickel trading and I don't know what else you could say about that they're protecting their own on this they're not protecting the traders but again if they didn't the LME probably would be circling the drain right now along with the traders that were backing those trades one of the other things that we did find out to over the weekend is just how big some of these companies are in trouble like JP Morgan on that trade they're on the they're on the counterparty side and they end up with a whole lot of nothing or I like to say one of my favorite movie shorts of all time a fist full of yen back you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and joined the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tiger's is they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors you could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market you could be making a lot more check out tfnn and Tiger TV and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options you'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30 day money back guarantee for new subscribers as well as tfnn Tiger Den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels and make sure you check out Tiger TV for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's YouTube channel for live financial content from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern 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sure that he got on his tape so I mean there's a lot of little inside stuffs in there but if you like entered the dragon you'd probably like it uh hysterically funny and uh probably the best send up of all time uh he has to go to a little island and it's the Isle of Lucy if you get that which I anyway fantastic stuff on YouTube if you want to find it the full movie and even just the uh a fist full of you in 1977 uh question uh from one of the guys uh how can you know whether the ice cream machine is on um it's become a meme now for McDonald's and now with the lawsuit even things getting hotter uh for those guys uh on why uh the average downtime on their machines is somewhere around 15% uh on their ice cream machines where at Wendy's and others who use the exact same machine it's 1% and uh so everybody knows there's something going on here is that uh is that uh kind of a mob thing uh are people uh at the executive office is invested uh in Taylor uh because they make so much money on uh maintenance that they just continue to force um other folks to spend money on this it's interesting 32% of machines in New York are down and uh 17% of Houston 17 percent in San Diego um anyway mcbroken.com if you're interested uh let's get back to it we were talking about JP Morgan uh may have billions on the uh opposite side too so we may see a little bit of uh leg out here on these guys they are coming back and maybe this is why everybody knew what was coming uh but uh volume's not as bad so maybe that story is not as true as we know as we think 127 27 on March 8th with 19 million chairs you got about 10 million chairs now back into this gap higher actually not too bad looking uh let's see back here we got more questions okay so uh question on apple so is apple uh at least what i'm hearing is uh there's two things one uh people are selling uh apple in China to raise money for a lot of these uh margin calls that they're going to get hit with in the metals uh apple down a little bit the volume is not good though so you could still get a rather huge spring i'm thinking 162 uh could be in just a couple of days options continue to be very brave at 165 i'm not exactly sure what comes back into this but certainly you have a good looking candle out here on apple today and uh we'll see what happens i don't think a lot's going to happen in the next couple of days i think all the fireworks are going to be from about two o'clock on on Wednesday to the rest i don't know if a lot of people are going to get really brave um ideally you'd want to see that uh 41 14 tested in the s and p cash during the day during trading hours and see light volume persist um again a lot of worries for whether or what uh China is going to do in Taiwan uh that is overhanging the semi conductor uh market but again uh could be worse uh the first uh low on January 24th 208 88 on nvidia came into that uh with uh about 17 million shares lighter on february 24th that was 73 million shares at 208 90 so two cents away um you got 55 million shares on march 8th and bounced off that now you're back into that with 27 million shares today now this is how you make lows but it takes some time i know everybody thinks that the uh uh perverbial v market that we've had for 10 years before this is the way it comes back sometimes it's a you and sometimes it's a little bit more complex than you would want uh good call uh this is robert good call on gold and it's blow off top uh where are you looking i'm just you're almost there uh to to to what do we have for gold prices right now get over to that okay 1960 1950 uh the range i was looking at to begin with was 1950 to 1975 you're in that today at least on uh the gold trust it looks fairly good you got a gap right there at about 181 50 on the gld i think you're into that um you got an up thrust that gave up uh everything on february 24th with 33 million shares you're getting into that you did gap higher with 22 million shares on the fourth but i think you could fill half that gap which would be about 181 on the gld and that's you know 10 bucks i think that does it on the gld so you're back to a pretty good support area um my guess again is you're not going to do a lot before the fed at two o'clock on wednesday and you could just melt which would be fine by me the better the price uh i can wait and so should you um more questions about uh what's going on in crude um some thoughts out here uh today are that uh we wanted to go back and test 100 that's part of it uh one of the uh fed uh appointees is not going to make it through confirmation uh mostly based on comments she has made before uh that would mean that she would use the fed as a bludgeon to beat up um uh energy producers and a lot of people were thinking that was going to go through when that started leaking out i guess uh over the weekend people started thinking a lot more about the price of uh energy going maybe down instead of up and maybe some of these policies that have made it absolutely brutal at the gas pumps for americans may get reversed i don't i i don't think that they're gonna give up drinking the koolaid uh on trying to get rid of any fossil fuel they can't but uh a small win at least for the uh people gas pump and uh even though they probably don't like it the moment probably a little bit or the condition we'll be back in a bit are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the 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investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv as we return we're going to the phones we're going to the mattresses but that's in a couple of day a happy pi day by the way jeff uh jeff uh near philly how you doing yes hi dave a happy pi day a few point one four one five nine two six five four yep i have a have a question about the delta value on options so i understand one way you can use the delta value is use it as a probability that the uh underlying will uh nothing that the option will expire in the money at expiration percent chance so if you have like a 10 percent delta then that particular option has a 10 percent chance of expiring in the money and my question is uh is that um equally reliable in uh times of high volatility like we have now you know where markets are uh racing up and down um i'm i'm working on a strategy and it's kind of relies on on the uh delta value you know giving you the percent chance of uh expiring in the money um the answer is high volatility seems to be better but a lot of people this look at the uh max pain level and go that's where it's it's headed um if you actually get through and do all the math you're going to find that there's some little hockey sticks and i'm showing what i have on the screen right now and those little hockey sticks tend to be even if it doesn't get back to it you tend to know where the bias is but the hockey sticks kind of really show you where support and resistance are going to be out here so right now i'm showing on the spies which are probably the the best besides uh apple and microsoft to go after if you're trying to get started in this um you need lots of people playing and a lot of people go into stocks that are very thin we traded with options and they start looking at stuff um you also have to remember that almost all of these people also probably have some kind of uh bizarre um hedge that includes futures and options and a lot of other stuff so why the x is is pretty good on some stocks uh it tends to be more of a suggestion what you really want to look for in the line is the little hockey sticks now on this one we've got uh 415 uh to about 425 so right now in the hockey sticks i'm sorry i'm like right in front of my computer at the moment are you very tiny referring to your your work on the max pain stuff yeah well on the yeah you're gonna see that you're gonna see so the probabilities are set and what you're gonna find out is that those hockey stick uh breaks in the trend show you where these people are are camped out or think but right now 415 is kind of the low so we're probably getting fairly close to what people think you also have kind of a break at about i'm gonna call it 425 um but these things are really flattened out after uh the Fed on uh Wednesday my guess is you're gonna see some very distinct uh dog legs in these things and that's gonna tell you a lot right now people are have very wide um position set up and you're probably not getting a lot now this is also one of the hardest ones uh to handicap because you've got quad witching so don't get too frustrated when they don't hit exactly where you think they will i don't try to pick um the market so much as a direction to be going into quad witching and generally what you'll find out is by the numbers by around 11 on Friday will give you a really good indication unfortunately you have to wait until the uh futures expire at 935 Friday morning so go ahead on the thanks on the um started here i'm working on it i won't be able to see the max pain actually what i'm trying to do is just sell iron condors iron condors like on Monday or Tuesday using weekly options and i've been uh collecting some data and i see that if you use 10 percent deltas on either side as your short strikes then um you it's got a positive expectancy so um well i'm trying to figure out like well anytime i come up with something that looks like it's going to work i start wondering what did i miss so i'm thinking what i'm missing is that i can't rely on those delta values as probability that you're going to um close in on it it's certainly not a high volatility like when it fixes over 30 or whatever yeah it's certainly not a bell curve what are you using for your expectation a standard uh Gaussian distribution uh no i'm just looking at the delta well i'm sorry look at the option chain right but on any and i find yeah but on anything you should have a histogram and it should say uh like in the spies there's a 10 percent at 425 and a 5 percent at you know 420 and a you should have some kind of histogram that sets that up right so you can see you can see the distribution of where you think it's going to be whatever model you're building right okay you understand where i'm going um well i didn't want to take too much of your time but i'm not we got plenty we got plenty we got two more minutes you're building well i would say too first of all you know what kind of distribution you're going to use well it would be i would think a normal distribution now markets have fat tails um you're going to need to do a lot of work if you're going to try to make a model works and understands it um i've explained it this way before but probably the best way if i get in a sesna 172 and i go fly and i get whacked out i can just take my hands off off the yoke and rudders and it's probably going to fly itself fairly well it's going to be very stable if the nose is headed down it'll speed up and it'll start uh it'll start uh planing out and once it gets going a little bit too fast the nose will come up it'll slow down you'll have some oscillations and it'll eventually get to some kind of homeostasis where it's flying level okay you got three computers in an f16 if two of them don't um if two of those don't match it automatically ejection because it is always unstable and what you have to do is look at that expectation uh or distribution more like a sombrero than a bell at the edges it current turns right back up and uh that's generally when you start looking at it i i exaggerate it but uh the distribution is not a normal or a Gaussian distribution uh when things get bad they get worse and that's what you have to understand about the market they tend to blow up at the very edges of those things and there's a lot more downside than a bell curve would have you want to hang on that's fine we'll be back in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction 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heard the wisdom of crowds yeah wisdom of crowds yeah yeah that's what i subscribe to after years and years of working on this stuff so that's why i use those kind of max pain versions of it uh in that uh there's a couple of problems one you're going to get blown out um probably but uh there is a there's a good explanation out here from john maynard keens who said markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent and that's probably the best way to describe how fat tails are in the market i'm showing a really nice uh article on uh toward data science dot com if you want the link just email it to me but it gets in here about how you have to look at fat tails and uh there's a lot of other things that go in but a fairly simplistic thing like that probably didn't give you a lot of direction um i know what you're trying to do and there's been a lot of people decided to do it since jimmy rogers famously said i think in 1990 85 percent of all options uh go unexpired so let's go ahead and just sell options um what he fails to see is uh the leeman brothers moment of 2007 eight uh and others that blew up are in ron um there's always these big unknown events uh hundred year floods but they all tend to come about every 15 years in the market so uh i'm not a big fan on on the trying to do that because you do have one big time over a number of years being successful it takes all the money away from you in a day thanks for the call so when you can not when you have to we shall return tomorrow