 the power trading hour with your host David White call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David White assume I'm on the air I don't have anything but I'll assume on it Skype's being a little difficult today anyway as always another excellent if not slightly abbreviated version of the power trading hour and as always the time we come together so hopefully I'm on don't see anybody typing in anything on the den but I assume I am so what do we have a lot of stuff yesterday when we left and we had our little time together I said the most important thing was to watch the volume on the TLT now that we ended up with a close just slightly lower on the volume of the June 16th low that ended up being 108 to 12 with 26 million shares you got into a just slightly lighter 24.6 so I'm making an assumption we're probably going to get one more retest and you need it on probably 20 million shares this time or less or it's probably going to go lower but for the moment we've got a tiny respite the energy on the way back down was longer and a little lighter the volume was just a hair lighter generally when you're using price and volume with Wycoff methods Ty goes to the runner and that is the bullish case opposed to the bearish case but generally if you don't get something that's significantly lighter i.e. in this case what is that 10% lighter probably not enough you're probably going to get a retest now that may just be a retest where this bounces into the trend line down I like to use a 3x3 displaced moving average but yeah could you get a couple of days could you get up to 109 10950 or something and then have it pull back down you'd like it to get back into that 20 that 107 42 it gave you some good news i.e. it went below the previous low it did so on lighter volume not that much lighter and then pop back into the trading range today so I think there's a little bit going on here in that I think many people are and let me put it this way many traders thought that it was just going to after it got down here it was just going to blow through the lows and it may take a lot more consolidation it probably is going to 100 the question is just when fed notes out during the start of the show for the for the beige book and I don't think there's a lot in there but I went through it real quickly during the the when it came out of maybe there's something more in there I didn't have a lot of time to go through it to me just looks like 75.75 or three quarter percent interest rate at the next meeting seems rather likely from what I read I didn't see anything in there that contradicted that now after that maybe you get some kind of dovish comments but I don't see a lot happening between now and then and if I remember right the next meeting is the 26 is that right now I'll look it up during the break but we've got it's the end of this month I want to say 28 28 maybe it's the 28th but that would be it 877-927-6648 email me at path at tfnn.com I listened to the Apple dog and pony going on in the last hour well there's some stuff that I can't mention but there's some Apple has is for its new I watch anyway not a lot new out there we were talking about that yesterday the breathless way that these folks talk about their products just gets a little annoying after a while the only thing I really thought that was interesting is that they're adding sapphire lenses to some of their extreme version of their watch watch for mountain climbing at high altitudes and for going scuba diving but those things are like 1200 bucks they're gonna be expensive watches for you to break and of course in a year or two you'll probably have to get a new one so I didn't see a lot in there there's a there's some interesting applications to health especially women's health but I don't know if a lot of people are going to spend that kind of money five six hundred bucks when you can buy something for a hundred bucks it does kind of the same thing if that's what you're interested in the biggest problem I still see with the eye watch is that you have to take it off and charge it every night they do have a mode where if it does little or nothing but act like a watch it may last 36 hours but kind of defeats the whole purpose if you know what I mean so battery life is still a critical flaw I suspect in the eye watch some other things I wanted to get in here I have enough time on this the market data infrastructure rule is going to be passed in the next 30 days there's quite a disparity between the data that we as retail traders get and the data that the big Wall Street firms can get by throwing a lot of money at it we talk from time to time about the short data that comes out of the exchanges every two weeks that data generally is 12 or 13 days before you see it on a website if you pay $3,000 or $3,500 to both AMEX and or not AMEX but both the NYC and the NASDAQ they'll give you that data same data on the 10th and why it's not widely known apparently you can pay to get that data even a little bit earlier if you're some big wig like a Morgan Stanley or a or a other on the street we get back very interesting level today and then we'll get into some charts see how the market is digesting the faith inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than in gold this the golds flagship asset is the Mount Todd Gold project in the northern territory of Australia this is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project we are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district this is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction this the goal just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life all of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits this distinguishes 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guarantee take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 we come up back to you I was talking about the market data infrastructure rule it is going to be passed in about the next 30 days maybe even sooner than that a judge ruled pretty much mid-summer late summer that the NYSE and the Nasdaq didn't have a leg to stand on and they could make them disseminate the data in a much more neutral way to market participants anyway that ruling later ruling came out in first part of August now the Federal Trade Commission and the SEC is getting together and making sure that data can get to us from various folks and of course if anybody's ever gone to and looked at data there they really try to charge the living daylights out of it to you I've compared it to OPEC a a massive cartel that may be starting to break now and you may see other exchanges like IEX starts to better because they offer free data and that may be the stepping stone to maybe chipping away at very high cost data that generally were not allowed to get to the crypto market is on for a market cap dipped under or just a little around $950 billion today probably most people would say that's a lot but of course it was 3.3 trillion at the high so we're down what 65 percent something like that off the highs so yeah we're going to call it a crash in the cryptos here if you're off more than or around two thirds I think you can probably say that anyway not much happening in the way of Apple which I thought was very interesting but they are tending to push the rest of the market take a quick look here at Apple again I didn't see anything that looked at interesting or that important it's still going on though or it was going on when the show started so there may be something else I don't see anything I just updated the chart here volumes okay overall market volume I heard somebody actually comment on it is fairly light we're only doing about 6.1 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape today for a Tuesday in September compared to the some 16 and some days at 18 billion shares at the extremes is not a lot but again we may have more coming in at the end this is really kind of the last day for fun buying so I'm not all that shocked to see it up here but when you looked at options there was kind of a medium resistance at 395 on the spies we've broke that 396 30 is that what it is now what is it 396 35 and the next and that's kind of minimal ring I'm going to call it medium resistance but there's the great wall of China that is set up at about 400 so maybe we can get up there in the next day or two looking at the TD nines and the way some of the other charts look we could get a retest as soon as Friday on some of these lows so is this a one day wonder pop well there's not a lot of volume there's a lot of stocks in the TD nines that are on the six sevens and eights if they make it to the nines could they bring the rest of the market down there is part of that the other thing you got to look at of course is crude oil being lower kind of really amazing and it's on continuing demand drops mostly here in the United States it's amazingly different and that is that we're just not driving anymore it got expensive and everybody quit and they changed their patterns and that's kind of it so a crude down about 5% on the day so let's take a look at the XLE and you gap down on the first you had 28.3 million shares today you got about 21 22 million shares already you did pierce that low you're kind of back into the wick of the thing but it doesn't look good so maybe we'll find out more of course generally these short and weeks you get delayed reports I didn't see it today I'm assuming it was we'll get the AEI tonight and the and the EIA in the morning or tomorrow morning at 10 30 or 11 sometimes they move it to 11 so we'll see of course natural gas probably a little bit different when they're closed on Monday but I did not check on that anybody in the den sees anything different that'd be it so anyway I guess a one day wonder did they schedule all of this just to make Apple look good so they could continue distributing it inquiring minds want to know I don't see a lot going on here question on the XLE like I said it the the bottom on the TLT was not anything to write home about maybe you do get a one or two day to bounce but I do suspect we're going to come back and retest that Microsoft is up for today now this is just on a fact that most of these have come back down to support the last big gap higher on was on July the 27th on Microsoft you were up on 46 million shares you've come back in that with fairly light volume actually for the last four days 23 22 21 million shares today got about 11 on the upside but you haven't broken the trend lines up energy again dissed dissed a skosh I haven't heard skosh since the they quit putting those chewing tobacco ads on TV used to leave a little skosh between your cheek and gum but I guess that's illegal now it's illegal or I've never seen one of the last 15 or 20 years but anyway dissed a skosh lighter volume on the move back down so it's is it fantastic no is the volume lighter it certainly is so could you get a bounce here the downside is I like to see both if I'm looking for a major move both the volume at the lows and the energy really tail off and the energy on the downside didn't all you have now is a tail off in the volume from the last gap higher on Microsoft no skoshing allowed huh there's ointments and lotions for that now I hear okay what else do we have look in our email here okay okay we'll be back in a minute at two or three emails here I'm reading we'll get back to those eight seven seven nine two seven six six or eight if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my goal report the goal report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the goal report with coverage of gold silver bonds DXAU HUI 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will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com yeah it's a nice bounce in the TLT just look at that volume though and that's what gets me going out here yesterday you had 24.6 billion shares or million shares excuse me and today you've got about 10 million on the bounce so far so yeah I'm not a big fan of that yet now we had a lot of people waiting for the beige book we've got Apple doing its little shindig so is there something else going on we're in September we should have volume and we should have volume in the next couple of days it should really pick back up now is today really just the last hurrah for fun buying well we shall see I do not like a bounce on light volume up to major resistance but we've got at least another two and a half or three at 2.7 points on the spies to get up to that level so we shall see to do other questions about oh it was on MU from John's Jim Johnson okay right here you're working your way back down and retesting this huge candle reversal day of July 5th that got down to 5209 got out of 5401 today and now you're coming out that day had 30 almost 34 million shares you got into it today with about 10 so far so it's not too good I mean not too bad at least on the light volume you've got about the same energy up on the way down and that's generally not a good sign so if both of those are not congruent IE the energy on the last leg down was lighter volume and the low is lying generally I look for a bounce and then yet a pull back on lighter volume back into the previous low with lighter volume than the last time so could this be nothing but a bounce and a downtrend it could be I'm not particularly excited about trying to go short or being short the SMHs with light volume but at the same time like I said a lot of times you get a couple of days back up and then the next move back below the trend line signals the that it's ready and built enough steam to go break some lows but not a real good risk reward for being short here and you're going to have to wait for a bounce and think and determine that a bounce is on lighter volume over the next few days before you go short I don't know if there's a lot out here to hang your hat on to do okay we looked at Microsoft looked at Apple what else do we have out here take a quick look at the SMHs for Mike welcome to the fold and he says that he's coming back to the path of least resistance thank you path of least resistance SMHs that's from Archer whoever else loves that show SMHs just going sideways here today again fairly light volume you did have 6.9 million shares on the 31st now we get into that today with about 2.6 but you're not really breaking above it you've got a couple of gaps down and that will be on that 6.9 million shares so could you get to 612 you could now one of the other things going on today of course is the day that option market makers go dealt a neutral I'll know a lot more at about 330 or 345 today than I know right now but there hasn't been a lot they're really kind of pegging that around the 4,000 level is where extremely major resistance is and again on a lighter volume you always have to look at rallies on that especially in September on lighter volume as problematic to do OKTA okada gap down I think you asked me about this one a while ago or someone else did you get down with a lot of volume you kind of going sideways out here I mean without a lot more work the best you probably hope for is a move back up and fill halfway of the gap that would be what about 81 bucks 80 bucks so if you're in this I don't know what the question is see if software being hampered by interest rates or spot decline generally when mark interest rates start going up and stock prices start going start going down software is one of the easiest things to turn off as a as a CEO or a CFO and to say you know we're not updating anything right now we're not going to spend that money we're not going to do anything that's generally if you can do without it kind of software especially if you're downstream from the Fortune 500 companies and I think this company is hang on a second let me take a look here to the excess gateway enables organization extend the okada identity cloud from the cloud to the existing on premises ok yeah I I it's hard for me to believe that much of anybody is going to be able to long term fend off Amazon web services Microsoft's your Google web services is dish very tough we can look at other companies in this vein that have tried and probably you know even much more established and much higher capitalized company like sales force has had real problems competing with those folks it is reached and gone through previous lows with about same volume to on heavier volume so as they say stocks and markets don't tend to crash at highs they tend to get down to previous lows and then blow themselves apart it's not horribly bearish but man I think that they're probably much faster horses in this area than the also rands besides the big three I think that's probably the biggest problem you have now take a quick look at spot which is Spotify I think a lot of people are getting nervous about Twitter and just how much is going to come out about how just phony a lot of these numbers are for people listening and watching and everything else this is a business that seems much along the lines of XM satellite that was everybody was going to listen to music by satellite and then they didn't quite do much and they couldn't make money so they started going with podcasts and they got to what's that shocked yacht from New York on her stern and they've been able to kind of like eat their way through Spotify of course went to Joe Rogan still a big bra on the on the channel but all these guys are built on the basis that you can make money dreaming music and no one really succeeded so we'll be back in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. And we're back to the question about Tesla, it is breaking above the downtrend line. You don't have a lot of volume so far, you had about, what, 56 million shares yesterday, today you got about 37 on the way up, does tend to have more volume at the end of the day. You may want to watch that. I probably not the best advertising to have both Hawaii and California tell you you can't recharge your cars so I don't know how that goes. If it gets past and to the low information folk out there, they don't spend a lot of time looking at news. But certainly an interesting idea that the biggest states that are proponents of electric cars are the first to make sure that you can't charge them or telling you you can't anyway. But is interesting, you got to bounce up here just on a lighter volume. One of the things that I hadn't brought up yet is the way splits affect the trading of stocks, especially these high flyers. There's a personality that comes into stocks and a lot of times it is because of the prices. I've seen a lot of stocks splits come and change the personality of the stock and it takes a little while, maybe six months to really get that personality change over and maybe it's kind of like a 16 year old finally graduating high school and maybe having to take some responsibility or maybe it's an 18 year old that picks up a gallon of James Dean of a bourbon and decides that he has to go real fast in the car. But a personality change nonetheless and I would be very careful trading this until you figure out what that change in that is. You can recharge after 9 p.m. only, okay. Well, it doesn't do you any good if you want to recharge before. But it seems to me if you've got penetration of 3% right now and you want to go to 100%, if you can't handle it now, I'd worry about it. If you're having problems already charging just 3% or 4% of the cars, you probably need to do some real soul searching, but that's just me. Question about IBM, from the land of NIMBY, he says they'll build more capacity, but all I've ever seen is not in my backyard. Okay, IBM, that didn't look too bad, Jim. You're going back into the 125 low. Like I said though, all these have about the same energy up on the way down. You are finding some fairly light volume here on the July 21st low, 12 million shares into 3.3, 3.4 million shares. That was 3.3 yesterday today. You only have about 1.3 million shares and I'm kind of a move up. But that's it. Okay. We have another question to take a look at DLR. You had more volume on the break. Now this is one that Jim Chainos is big short on it. I think he went short back there about 130-ish, or at least that's where he said he made it known that he was shorting it. He may have shorted those big moves. Actually the chart doesn't look that bad. This is one of the few that had a light volume pullback, but about the same volume at the lows. So you're not getting a lot of congruency here from both the high to the low. You're up on just no volume today, which is the problem. 1.3 yesterday, 521,000 shares on the upside today. Again, I kind of like it when the charts are all speaking the same way instead of being very different in those. I'm just going to go through my usual suspects, AMD's sideways on light volume. I don't think you can make anything about that. NVIDIA has broken lows, has done it on major volume four days ago, four trading days ago. Broke the low of 65 million shares with 117, you're just kind of going sideways here. So what you need to do if you're bullish on this is see it go to about 145, pull back and try to retest this low on a lighter volume again until then you've got a low broken on volume. The energy from the high to the low was on more volume. These guys, both AMD and NVIDIA have a lot of great products coming out. They tend to be good companies. We don't need to confuse good companies with stock price because those have a lot to do more than just the company. They have to do with the idea that maybe China invades Taiwan. Maybe people are starting to get a lot more worried about that with Putin and Xi getting all chummy over the last few days. But I don't know. Maybe there's something else. I haven't seen anything else that said the threat level up was higher in Taiwan. Putin is a planet here based out here, PLTR. It just, every all this stuff looks rather weak. Energy same on the way up is on the way down. Volume through the June 13th low was at 41 million shares at $7.5. You broke through that with about the same volume. So there's a lot of stocks out there that don't have a clear signal either higher or lower. Some did, like NVIDIA did break the lows and did have more volume. Nancy wants to look at UNG, two twos, we'll look at this. Now on this one you did break, for UNG break the previous high of 3277. That was the June 8th high that had 14.5 million shares with 12 million shares. So it was lighter. I would have liked a little bit more like 10 to think about going short. But you had 12.1 million shares on the 3450. You went above the previous high. You did so on lighter volume. You pulled back. Energy is actually fairly good the last couple of days. Well, yesterday had almost 8 million shares. Today about half that though. So if you look over to the left-hand side of the chart, right around that $26 level, you've got lots of potential support. We'll be back in a minute. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGZ. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. 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Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bicep and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Wrap up another excellent episode of the Path of Beliefs Resistance. As we get to the close, we're up 70 on the S&P cash. Dow's up 449, NASDAQ's up 242. Russell's up 29. Crude Oil's off 5. Gold's up 13, but not really doing much of anything. Wiggling around a bit like a fish on a dock. But that's kind of it. We go to the volume, as we said, volume's fairly light. 6.8 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape, which is pretty wimpy. So be wary. Again, some of the other stuff going on out here. The TLT's got a big bounce. Again, no volume really, respectively, off the lows today. Yesterday you did 24.5 million. Today you're doing about 10.5 million shares. So I don't know how you can really hang your hat on anything other than a bounce at the moment. Maybe that changes, but that's kind of it. A lot of the stuff this looks like it got down to the previous lows, got there with fairly decent energy, then has bounced on having very light levels. But September tends to be a wicked month, and generally the big men of the street tend to blow out the weaker horses and start buying the stronger horses late in the month. So you always have to worry about it. Most of the worst months of all time have been in September, and that's always problematic. Again, kind of hard to actually put too much into today. We had the Bayes book, which really didn't do much. And we've got Delta Neutral for options expiration on the 16th. So tomorrow I suspect will be a lot more indicative of what we have in the next few weeks. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow. Trading in the stock market seems impossible.