 Okay, cool. Let's get over our memories to Tim was we've ever every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget you can reach Tim every trading day at odd or D hyphen oracle commas odd hyphen oracle.com Tim or what's going on brother? Oh, you're looking at some charts here. We're looking at some charts. Yeah, well first off Congratulations, I mean you really hit this thing beyond believe first you hit the gold and then of course, you know bottom line You hit the S&P and this is this is one hell of a rally Tim Yeah, I tell you what I don't think it's over. I know I listen as we go through these up and I know I was saying to Jacob upstairs, you know, and this is the what would you have also folks This is like the perfect time scenario for this to happen. But yeah, let's start it off the first one we're looking at I Have the first shot up here Tim All right, so it's chart number one Which is the F&P is this is just I've used it over the years it works fine And anyhow the second window up from the bottom. Yep is the 10-day trend. Yes, and usually, you know It kind of varies. You know, this is exactly 1.2. You know long as in the city, especially out this strong rally We didn't actually get panic at the last low But as a market rallied, it's all Anyhow get back to that chart when that 10-day trend is around 1.2 or higher. That's all the shaded pink areas I did on that chart. I see it. Yeah, and and so last October We got a boy signal because you got a trend of one around 1.2 market share term low and we came down and into the late October actually October 27th was the low and there's really not a lot of panic in there But as a market rallied was unusual the trend actually got higher. Okay, so Sonya It looks good When you get a trend of 1.2 or higher normally you got panic in the market you got more In general you got more volume in the stocks that are going down And you think that would be bullet or bearish was actually bullish So anyhow, we got enough panic probably to keep this rally going today's not enough day We're off about a quarter percent give or take but you know, we got a 10 to 10 day trend You know tonight's probably gonna be a little higher as I put this date on which is not last night's close to 1.09 Still leans bullish. So In effect, that's you know leans bullish. I don't see any Over optimism, you know where a top can occur. No, I know because right now you were actually running a 1.19 right now Right as we're speaking which is so it's like, okay Kind of building energy. That's why I'm saying it's probably hired tonight. Yeah on the 10-day trend The mark kind of is building energy here probably even move higher during Thanksgiving week So that's what the chart to Tim do you remember that I don't get you get you off course here, but do you remember and you probably do this was in There's either 98 or maybe is 96. I don't know I between 96 and 98 what happened folks is this it was Thanksgiving week Okay, and Let's say we were prior to the week and the market had been running like this, right? Well, what happened is that on the day after Thanksgiving, okay? There was only you know half a day and that day was one of the biggest days ever Sorry in the market, but it didn't matter what you bought everything went up everything I mean it was like we were all like in awe. I mean we were all long and You know, yeah, I pulled back that following Monday But I will never forget that day and I'm I'm thinking this morning when you know Just going over your charts and I'm going over the newsletter. I'm saying you know what man This market is set up that it'll be a liquid Friday You know if Nvidia comes out with some decent numbers tonight I mean they could run this thing on Friday that people will get to get their mind blown man Do you know I mean because it's like okay? You're only you're only open, you know from 930 to 1. Do you know what I mean? So right it could do it. I don't know. I see there's there's evidence that could happen Yeah, but if nobody's believing this rally, I mean I'm still get comments. I'm thinking, you know when you're gonna sell I'm thinking right. I don't know and when I know I know, you know, I know I don't see a big problem. That's not say You see you get some virtues in the VIX or the TLT to the SPX ratio, or you get too many Optic rings on the clothes or you get a real low trend rating. Yes. You get a lot of kind of Signs that yeah, you're getting kind of Exhaustion here and none of that's happening here. It's not not so far Can it happen over the next couple of days? Yeah, maybe but I don't think the markets gonna do it I think it's gonna keep doing right what it has been doing for the You know, even though you know everybody's talking about the gaps get gaps here gaps there But there's plenty of time for those to get filled later. Right exactly. So I get the second later You'll maybe monthly or maybe in January. I don't know. No, I'm with it Is I'm not gonna work or worry about it, but you flip the page to I have it the VIX Slash VIX the five s is a really good sign It's a you know second one down from the top is actually the SPX VIX ratio, right? The only reason I do that Because it kind of mirrors the direction of the SPs. Yes, you do the VIX normally the VIX is up The SPs are down if the VIX is down use the SPs up So I did the SPX VIX ratio to kind of see where it's going on and right now we're out of the SPs are kind of testing the Looks like about the september highs here and the VIX is also testing the september high Yes, if you look at the top window the september low lower low, right? Yeah, exactly, right So, you know usually the VIX starts going up For several days before the the actual top happens in the SPs and so far none that's happening here. So Right, you know, it's a it's a good omen, you know, I actually outlined that time We're on the radio back in april may and we were talking about That market going sideways a lot of people bearish Well, if you look at the VIX at that time, you know, I got it outlined there Yes, we were making higher highs where the SPs were basically Going sideways and a lot of times this ratio leads leads the direction of the SPs. So, um It looks it looks pretty good here so far. Yeah, just wait just wait there one second Tim and I are gonna be coming right back after a shot break folks We have the down industrials right now down 80 nazik up 93 s&p's are off 13 tim and I we come right back folks stay right there Welcome back folks a doubt down industrials right now down 67 nazik off 91 s&p's off 13 We're talking about man. Mr. Tim orton. We are talking markets here Okay, tim. So, uh, should I go to number three now? Yeah, go to number three. Uh, okay, kind of it is a little bit Kind of a good gives a pretty good view a short term And uh, usually uh, anyhow, the the bottom one is the daily SPY the next window up Is the daily uh tilt to vik or To bvix ratio. Yes, I I did the vix, but the bvix seems to work better. So But anyhow, uh, the the tan or the pink shaded areas Are they're showing diverges like in january of 2023 as the market? Uh went up I see that racial went. Yeah, the racial went down and in July august of This year that's actually, you know, I don't know if you remember not I got out right at that high or I do to it. I do. Yes. I do and uh, This one this this ratio is one of the reasons why That ratio was you know, markets going higher or higher and that ratio started to go down And so Tim, this is something that we will be watching If them, you know, well at some point the market's gonna, you know, run out of energy But this is something that we would be watching in the future also to see to say, okay, are we getting there or high, right? Yeah, yeah, this thing will start to diverge and you'll see the other signs You know a lot of times the trend gets way low. Yeah period of time, but you don't To me, I don't use one indicator. I use you know, I get three or four You're preferably at least two not three or four all line up Your odds of success really increase a lot, right? So I don't do because all indicators don't work all the time. Exactly. Uh, exactly And so you'd be kind of multiple, you know, yeah, you have layers to them once you get a few layers Green that market turn is probably coming and then you got to you got a bail. I guess you might say Yeah, right. We're uh We're over here in the blue part right now the light blue part Okay, if you notice that uh the sp is you know Kept rocking up And so far that ratio is still making higher highs So, um How long how high can we go? I don't know That's so cool. So let's just I want to go over this chart. I want to go over this just for a second So I see what you're saying, okay We go back to the july see what you're saying This was already going down Market is still making highs is there divergence there This particular case folks, if you're watching target tv, you're going to see that, you know bottom line is this This is making higher highs period cool, man. Okay, I get it. I get it. Nice. Yeah It's uh And also I use uh this ratio You know once something moves too fast it kind of like goes parabolic Yes, and normally it goes parabolic. That's usually a bad sign. Okay, and I I'm not I marked uh Acceleration, which is the top two windows at the top windows the roc. Oh, I see Okay, the rate of change on a 10 period and right below that is the rsi. It's just kind of a Uh acceleration type indicators, uh, and right with them or 10 day, which is two weeks And so if you get them both lined up, which is the red lines You're you're kind of going to exhaustion to the downside Yeah, and the blue line is kind of exhaustion to the upside Which you can see that's exactly what happened when we came off that low unreal. Okay. Yeah Yeah, you know, so you kind of watch it. Is that going to be a top? Right. I've seen the same thing, you know that ratio hit both ratios hit, uh, You know Overbought yes 20 others about 30 right and so I was long and so I kind of watched that ratio and Pretty cool because of the acceleration. So that was kind of worrisome sign I held that position and all of a sudden we started breaking hotter highs on that TLT big bvix ratio and think okay, I'm fine Yep, I see because the ratio the ratio trumped the acceleration. I see that way Okay, so let's go to number four. There we go Chat four, okay four. All right. Let me get is that good. Do you want to do chat floor? Yeah, chart four is good. Good. Actually, can we do it? Can we do five and come back? Absolutely. Yeah, we I get five right now. Beautiful. Oh, this is the beauty folks. Yeah, let's do this one Yeah, okay. So we're looking, you know, we're just off that ratio Uh, the TLT bvix ratio, you know, it's not showing any diverges What may happen if, you know, if you do yscop remember yscop? Oh, yeah, you know Yeah, you to get through a neckline. You have to have a sign of strength, right? Right, which is big volume and big price movement. Yes Well, this whole pattern has been going on here on the spx going back to Lake 2021 could be a head and shoulders bottom I know and that neckline is right around that 4600 area on the spx Amazing when you get through that neckline, you have to have a sign of strength. Yep And so what I'm saying is The market actually may get stronger here Going forward because to get through that line, you have to have a sign of strength. All right So, so we'll see it again acceleration No, and listen, it would make sense, you know, what you had, you know One of the guys that, you know, the the guy that wrote the big shot to him. Okay Um, you know in 2007, right, Michael Lewis, right The bottom line is that he just closed. He's winding down his hedge fund. It's a long shot fund And he's winding that down. It's going to be closed by January because he can't make any money So that happens. I mean at highs too. Do you know what I'm saying? So Right when that happens folks now just to understand what happens They got to close positions, man. So yeah, his hedge fund has like a half a trillion Half a billion half a billion. Yeah, 500 million or something like that Our bottom line is that you can see what could happen as to how you can get a sign of strength I I can see how it would happen, you know, you're holding off you're holding off You're praying that the market will get down and then all of a sudden it's like, okay It's not going down and you know, it's going to get down after everyone closes their shots, of course. Okay, but Pretty cool, man. So let that this is this is quite a head and shoulders to him. This is pretty amazing Yeah, well if you look, you know, if you take it go back to 2020 Low, you know the marches of the covid crash back in 2020 if you do the fibonacci relationship We only trace 50 percent of that Decay on that that uh advanced. Yes. So uh, so if we went down to 61.8 percent You know, maybe we don't break the neckline, but 50 percent, you know, the odds suggest that we're probably gonna See a science rink maybe through that neckline and this head and shoulders pattern has a major target around 5700 5700 which is about 26 higher than where it is Once you break the 4600. Yeah, that's 11 hundred points higher. That's 11 hundred points higher than we are right now folks Okay, wow. Yeah the gobs and gobs the points higher Have we confirmed this pattern yet? No, no, you need a Confirm a head and shoulder bottom. You need a science drink through the neckline And so we're not to the neckline yet. Right. It looks promising It does no, I listen that's Right step by step. We take the bottom window to the spx fix ratio. Okay So this is a monthly chart and right now the the spx fix ratios is basically, uh Testing the high of the previous high there. It looks like about july. I see that And the And the spx hasn't got it back to the july yet and a lot of times the ratio as I always said before Leads the s&p's. Wow, that gives you quite a bit of evidence that we may actually go up and test the july high. Yep, so So I don't know but I just stayed stay there folks stay there. Tim. We got one more segment We're gonna, you know finish this chart up and go to the next one. We have the down industrials right now See this thing won't want to stay down. That was our 50 nasdaq up 82 s&p's are up 10 10 tonight. Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks talking about i'm m. Mr. Tim ord. No fear folks You get hold of tim every trading day at odd hyphen oracle.com. Okay, tim. So, uh, would you like me to go to the last shot or what shot I'll you go to chart four real quick. Okay. I got it. Good Yeah, this is the summation dex and looks at the bigger picture it chart goes back to 2007 Yes, and shows the times When the summation dex gets below 700 and that's kind of a capitulation of the market. Okay, and Uh, so you need a capitulation then you need a sign of strength to get a bottom going into market Yes, so that's how the market bottom. So if you get capitulation and you don't get a sign of strength You're going to get more capitulation. Okay, that's what happened in the 2008 You got a bunch of capitulation kept going down and finally you got a sign of strength and that marked the bottom But we did have uh, uh capitulation a sign of strength Uh in the uh s&p's You know at the last low, which is what yes, October 2022 whatever Well, we may be getting another one because we had a capitulation on October 27th 2023 the uh summation dex is like minus 817 or something. I don't remember exactly what the number was But we did have a reading below minus 700 is 800 my 800 stuff So within two months So October 27th would be December 27th. Yes, if we get a within two months get to plus 1000 That would be December 27th Then you got another capitulation and a sign of strength you get two of them And normally, you know, if you look at this chart, you only get one And I don't know sure what two means, but it can't be bad. Right now We're where are we as to the plus 1000s and we're getting close to it? Right. Well, I did this chart today was actually this is yesterday's It'd be a minus 100 So that's where we are right now And uh, so we got quite a time to go yet. Okay. Okay 40 months over a month. So okay Well, listen man, you have a great thanksgiving a safe thanksgiving. I won't speak to you next week because we're closed Thursday and Friday 10 Okay, okay, man. We'll talk to you next week. Absolutely. Have a great one folks Have a safe one and come join Tommy tomorrow morning