 Okay, very good morning. It's Tuesday the 13th of August. I hope you are well Just having a quick look around the the markets this morning Actually fairly quiet not really too much for me to talk about but plenty. I'm sure for Sam to go into The charts and his thoughts technically for the setup for today Obviously the big headline that a lot of people are looking at is in Argentina Some of the country's most traded stocks basically got chopped in half Yesterday the Argentine stock market and currency plunging after the conservative President suffered a shock defeat in a primary elections on Sunday Just looking at some of the stats the peso fell 15% against a dollar on Monday after earlier plunging around 30% to record low, but that's very much Isolated to the Argentine Peso it's not really something that's that's playing out in the asset. Certainly that we look at here at amplified trading So just reverting back to really what is going on in in the things that we look at So a good cross-section of the charts as we see them at the moment Currency markets this morning a little bit softer in both major pairs top left-hand corner You've got your dollar and cable comes amid Some continuation of some dollar strength that was seen overnight the Asia Pacific session Dixie up about Quarter of 1% and just imparting a little bit of downside pressure both futures Euro and sterling sub their pivot this morning And obviously cable still definitely on our radar Just given the fact that we got down Yesterday evening Not last night But down to around that 120 33 level so ever closer to that That really quite symbolic and obviously technically relevant 120 level Just thinking elsewhere in terms of the equity markets As far as stock futures are concerned a little bit of a negative start to proceedings nothing really too drastic I am keeping an eye while i'm delivering this briefing on the DAX On that previous low point that we had From yesterday evening in the future space before the urex close And the bounce that we had otherwise fixed income T-notes up about four and a half ticks slow grind higher in the overnight Asia session, but you know check out gold Just another continuation on the push managing to get above Some of the area well, you can see really the Technically, you know, especially when we start to get to these elevated levels. I think I think sam will obviously Probably cover this more But you know as soon as we get into uncharted territory the technicals become ever more important in terms of any potential pullback And so on and you can see here it's just worked quite nicely on the round that $21 mark Having accelerated now and really started to bounce through we pull back to 1500 of course When we were delivering the briefing this time yesterday and what a powerful recovery we've had and Since we've got ahead above you can see late us session Whether there was any news trigger there or not not that i'm Immediately aware of at that time just a quick scan of the headlines here No, I can't really see anything So presumably a technical breach hence the extension the wick on that that candlestick in terms of its composition Came back down retest overnight Asia Pacific session fairly lighter volumes And the market's just taken it all the way back up to find some resistance at the R1 on the daily pivot. So gold still remaining, you know Strong performing asset having rallied 4% last week The show goes on presumably so let's get into some of the headlines as I said, it is very quiet and it's all a bit of a brexit focus And it's the usual kind of state of play really I can update you on the politics, but as far as a read across into direct Pound movement or sensitivity to these developments. It's pretty small A lot of this is again political posturing Updates about just general what Boris is up to and as he's Very much seemed to be gearing up for this election At some point in the near future. So not too much really is having a read across directly I would say if you were strategizing In the pound for the pound we do have some UK data, of course coming later, which we'll get into in a second having a look then us offers The UK a quick sector by sector post brexit trade deal. This of course was one of the things that Um, you know, it's such a strong argument for those in the leaf campaign Um, you know, it's such a simple one. It's kind of like, you know, we don't need Europe We can cut better deals on our own and As much as that when you get into the technicalities of the The political will of other nations the legal Things that need to fall into play for these things to actually materialize in a more concrete fashion It's definitely not as easy as that. But since when did that matter? That's the whole point about modern day politics in this current Trump era It doesn't matter And then the national security advisor john balton said yesterday Again, they're ready to offer britain these trade deals. He said That they'd speed up negotiations the two countries could agree to Bits and pieces at first with a comprehensive agreement to follow Um, he did acknowledge though balton that he wasn't actually familiar with the details of the trade issues um, so It's it was one of those really where It's it's definitely a political commitment with zero detail um But again, the point being is I don't really think that's You know, we've we've gone beyond the realm of of reason. I think when it comes to brexit now When it comes to trying to ascertain public perception um, I think you know, I think what I find fascinating is Dominic Cummings being behind the scenes pulling the strings for borris I think he's absolutely going down the route of which has been highly successful in america And it's really putting in focus um, not just to taking back of the sovereignty But the nhs and then also This idea about crime the third biggest kind of gripe Of of a national citizen in britain at the moment is crime and definitely with this um idea of You know fastly increasing knife crime that's been happening Hence the reason why borris has come out and done all the things that he's done in the last 24 48 hours particularly around that area. So it's all very much Um, just you know queuing this up for the for the election season um, one thing I thought was quite interesting about the bolton comment Despite apparently getting a friend to explain britain's concerns about what it would mean about including the nhs because there's this whole thing about um drug prices because of the the fact that it works differently in america So what it would be in a state run nhs here and bolton said I don't really get it. I don't really understand the nhs Again, it's by the by I think at this point So, yeah, this will definitely be of course grabbed by the Uh, the borris cabinet as a sign that look we told you so There's nothing to fear at this point What does that mean then? Well, uh, according to a latest poll A comrades opinion poll showed that 54 of respondents said they agreed with the statement That borris johnson needs to deliver brexit by any means including suspending parliament if necessary so actually Uh on the balance More rather than less would actually support him just pursuing this idea of a no deal Now the one thing I'd say with polls is really two factors one The way of which a question is worded can be incredibly misleading Uh, and actually I have seen a snapshot of the actual you um the comrades survey in it It is a bit Leading towards the fact that you'd probably you know, you're more likely to say yes to no essentially that you would back him Then the other thing is I've already seen quite a few people sharing again the actual comrades data that actually The 54 doesn't actually exist If you can believe that Uh, the 54 actually is a number that falls within a certain catchment demographic of an age group It doesn't encompass all adults of which these press reports are Intonating towards So again, it's you know, it's hard to really read too much into these things Obviously, there's a strong political agenda here of the government to deliver a certain conveyor message Whether that is the case, um or not I guess at the end of the day There's me looking at the comrades report in its with a defined tooth cone I would imagine I'm probably just one of only a handful of people would do that the rest of britain read the sun And so they're just going to believe what they read so The point being is I've got to sympathize and understand Their process not mine because there the masses not me The other headline of course was in the sun again Boris Johnson believes that you cave in at the last minute to save island From a no deal Brexit I did like one of the comments the sun managed to grab here by an undisclosed One cabinet minister a long-standing boris ally told the sun the EU will give us a better deal because if they don't island is fucked That's from a cab cabinet official Wow, it just it's just like It's just beautiful But look all points aside um You know this is becoming a bit of a circus affair now With with tracking this type of news the point being is is that none of this is really Moving the market right now, you know if we look at look back at the pound the the pound has definitely priced at this point for these types of messaging certainly If we look where boris when that election When I call it election the elimination round for the conservative leadership happen I mean we were trading up here around 132 We've come all the way back down to here and I think now All of this stuff that we're hearing. I don't think it's particularly new the market hasn't reacted to that that comrades poll at all Again, this is purely I would approach this strategically of a of a technical element of can that level hold? We're definitely within range. We're only about 60 pips away from the 120 handle In the futures at least at the moment and so for sure that's still the main thing I'm looking at because if that does break I really don't see any reason why in the coming weeks then not that anything fundamentally changes But with the technical breach the market doesn't open up to then see a further extension and grind down towards 115 ultimately The other final thing on the brexit side was obviously what's everyone else doing This just gives a bit of added detail around the timing. Obviously, we know that When recess is over, Jeremy Corbyn is going to call a vote of no confidence And apparently then as far as the timing is concerned The British government is preparing for a showdown over brexit on september 9th So the detail here that one senior government official said that parliamentarians Opposed to boris johnson's approach to brussels could use a motion to restoring the northern island executive June september 4th to cease control of the house of commons agenda This goes into some kind of nuances around northern island and and how that can be a bit of a Stumbling block for boris then for their Those of the opposition to take hold of the situation So yeah Next couple of weeks Not expecting too much on this and as I say the more interesting thing perhaps is going to come today from the uk from potential Economic data from the uk you've got average Weekly earnings and then the unemployment change and unemployment rate and then from the us you've got cpi data So two metrics here which could potentially influence in the short term the currency valuation particularly if we were to get A situation where cpi was to be surprisingly strong That would be what you'd be looking for to see those downside levels in k will get retested Italy We spoke about this at lent yesterday because we were talking about selvini And this idea about snap election all this is generally the headline the senate has delayed a no confidence vote So it's on ice for the moment prime minister conti expected to address parliament on august 20th So no further Kind of updates on this so this will probably put the kind of Focus on that those italian assets as a kind of barometer of sentiment just on hold for the time being at least um calendar wise apart from the uk data We do have some german numbers. We've got the german ze w economic sentiment index. So this is the one that Is a soft indicator surveying Economists and analysts so that's its difference to then 7 000 odd companies across germany in the form of ifo but as you can see economic sentiment In germany has been deteriorating rapidly The continued negative trend in the incoming orders in german industries like to be reinforced The financial market experts pessimistic sentiment While the previous reading the iran conflict and ongoing trade dispute between the us and china Been weighing on the global economic outlook is what was the detail that came out of their surveyed reports So last time this data came out. We printed at minus 24.5 The headline today is for minus 28.5. So it's for things to actually get more pessimistic So if we change this Graph over to a 10-year that does put us down at the most pessimistic That the germans have been essentially since really 2012 The low end estimate though So always important is the range the median estimate is minus 28.5 the low is minus 40 Minus 40 would put us kind of down to this area here So this was right when we were going through the episode of the european sovereign crisis So yeah, i'll keep an eye out for that data for sure So that's going to be coming out at 10 a.m this morning and then later on this afternoon Rolls around again the Return of cpi from the us. So at 130 This is looking at the year on year number. We are expected as a 0.1 uptick to 1.7 percent Got a range on the street of 1.6 to 1.8 percent But just having a look here on the on a five-year to get a sense of where inflation is at the moment and obviously the the fed Target of two percent inflation has been you know after it moved considerably higher has been just weakening through the course of 2018 and then also recently showing that trend as we can see in the last 12 months really since the summer of last year Slowing down hence the reason why the fed have been able to action that rate cut more recently and potentially More to come in the future Otherwise api crude oil infantries later on this evening as per normal But other than that that is about it No Or nothing else really major for me to to comment on I do have some other analysis about selvini and the senate showdown So I will put that into the chat room after this briefing is done So feel free to take a read when you get the time. All right. Well, let's get sam on see what he's got to say Have a good day. Thanks guys Thanks, and I hope everyone is doing well a quick look over The markets here we'll start off with that the euro which just over the last My 20 minutes or so we're just seeing a bit of recovery after A morning push lower similar to yesterday yesterday morning Around the similar sort of time was the the point where we just started to Turn back around Whether that's gonna happen again or not and a quick look over at the daily chart here again for the euro Which you can see is Every time we come back up to wards and just remove the pivots there any of these previous levels Of support that we have before that breakdown on the 23rd, we just can't close above that Yes, those highs if you like are just getting squeezed in both directions and you could argue It's worth having on there as well and certainly You can see if you depending where you have the trend lines On that break as well it would be worth having on Certainly to the to the downside that 112 handle With those previous highs from the back end of july have helped hold things yesterday as well It's failing to to get on but getting into another relatively small range and something's got to give You feel whether that be to the upside above that trend or or to the downside or not situation in italy Not necessarily moving things too much, but you can just see from the last one, you know, including today one two three four five six training sessions were just starting to get squeezed in from both ways and Not too much happening. So a case of for me. I would just say waiting waiting here for you know confirmation of You know a bigger push to the upside and downside to maybe really get your your bias going forward from from then The pound yesterday and if we were to put this on the daily chart, you can see if we would draw up the Well, we'll put it keep it on the 60 but my point being that high from yesterday You can just see if we scroll to the left hand side just how much Uh, resistant, uh, well what was supports and now it's the resistance we had from those previous days That and the r1 we couldn't get Back above there and we have drifted down since the low that we've just made Also the the previous high of the asian session yesterday before the recovery For the pound and the euro started. So we're keeping an eye on 2064. Yes, we've got the data coming and if that is bad Maybe we get that all important 120 On the futures, which isn't too far away 69 Tx away before that you'd have the s1 Nice area support on on the low of yesterday And the overnight low at 120 33 for the pound to the upside Well, you know, it still seems that this market does for whatever push on and it could be at 9 30 We have some good numbers or the us is weak. It just seems like it's a better opportunity to Get short higher right where could that be? Well looking, you know other than the the high that we did have yesterday could also favor The sort of the breakdown area that we had yesterday morning 121 52 Doesn't look all too bad And it may well be that we also get the top end of that trend line at that point And just at the corner of my eye just seeing And we don't really talk about the Kiwi too much But you can see after that retracement or part retracement oil that we saw After their shock 50 basis point cut we are just drifting down to the lows and Of the yesterday as well And and quite a key level support. You can see last few days are just starting to trend down as well So I'd have this on if you're you're trading the Kiwi even if it's against other pairs There's a bit of a signal And obviously favoring this to break yesterday's low And the low that we had on the eighth to maybe even look to to get a further retest down Eventually of that low that we made following that Is that going to have a drag through on the Aussie where you can see this morning? We are just drifting down as well It's a shame we didn't quite get up to the low of yesterday morning Today with the Aussie with those previous lows as well around here for that short We can just see we're starting to to trend down and work again Having a similar kind of trend to the one we had in the Kiwi there You see this one starting on the 7th yesterday's low yesterday evening overnight low and Maybe maybe I should say waiting for a break of that the dollar Up a bit relatively You know choppy over the last hour or so after a strong morning But certainly for the Kiwi and the Aussie you could argue there's You know a favorable move to the downside of these levels are to break the euro and the pound About the pound. I think he's got to look for the best place to short Obviously take the data with a pinch of salt and then make that decision But certainly with the euro and pound it might be just better off waiting for you know A move later on but certainly the the Aussie and the Kiwi Under a bit of pressure and the Canadian dollar as well You can see it's coming to its lower point of the day You've got some quite key levels just below where we're trading Obviously the the low from Friday, but you've also got the previous high from the 7th in the morning Level from the 8th as well. So just under a bit of pressure obviously keeping an eye Should we come back to test yesterday's Low as well, which you can see up with a bit of support this morning before that break through So the dollar trying to strengthen against some of these Pairs the euro and pound Or you can see not necessarily doing as much Well keeping an eye here on the DAX of course come down to test that that low just as we speak Not just from yesterday, but also the evening that we had well the afternoon I should say on the 7th as well break of that and then you can look into get down towards today's s1 Which is also a triple bottom from the 6th And a couple of times on the 7th as well the s&p worth Just having a quick look at literally where we're trading now. You can see yesterday's low We just hit that again. So very similar to to the DAX here But also the low that we had back on the 8th and really I would say this is more of a zone and Quite a key one. Obviously the DAX may be the the reason we were to push lower If it doesn't try and support but a break of this area 28 70 down to 67 and a half And I think it could we could see a further move lower to the upside Yesterday's original low is today's high. So you've got this Well, you could call it 18 or 20 point range in the s&p and they could be your lines in the sand really wherever you would want to And necessarily get long or short on other than just yet in the morning Looking to see what happens around either of those points may well be favorable I would suggest quick look over at oil and then obviously gold as well Oil you can see after well, we went through this yesterday that bounce from that multi month low and Decent recovery yesterday in the morning. It was threatening to come back To the downside didn't quite necessarily get to The original high that we had on Friday's morning, but we did push on And continue to do so The pivot acting is a bit of support for now And if I just make this a bit smaller And draw the the sort of the high from Yesterday, you can see just how choppy that whole area had been Certainly the beginning of the month. So quite a lot of resistance just above where we're trading and It would I feel we will be a bit of a struggle to get through that and not just because of those days But you can see just how well a level of support it had been before we did get that breakdown on the 1st of august You know the beginning of the month. So quite a key level just Resistance point in general for for for oil certainly for medium term and longer term traders as well So until it would maybe clear and you know close above 56 and maybe if you want to give it a bit of 56 and change there to get above Really, I'd just be a bit patient about looking to get too aggressively long to the downside You can see we're just starting to you know have this nice trend to the upside Can we get any trend line on you can see we just had the third test of that literally At half seven knowing that okay, we've got the free test people looking at it a break of that could well Leave to more downside obviously yesterday afternoon's low s1 and yesterday's low would be the targets for that So that's something just to to have a little think about yesterday's high While we're not got that third test of it Can argue price just getting squeezed a time So something just to be aware of 56 to the upside that trend line from the downside were having on gold Well, what's going to stop this in terms of resistance levels You can you know try get a couple of trend lines from previous highs to match up And probably worth having on if we do just keep you know Pushing and pushing to to say well, could we get the third test there? But you're almost hoping you're almost hoping here for that place to To you know see a ceiling. I think you just got to go with the flow yesterday 1500 You know we got during the briefing Down below it by a couple of bucks, but not enough to really you know confirm A push to the upside and you can see what's happened Since then just breaking levels and it was actually relatively technical yesterday the pivot after breaking acted quite well And the previous highs as well that level that did break overnight You can see what happened There just become really nice technical break of that trend push higher snap back find support goes again really Working nicely there keep an eye on any of the previous highs I think for for gold but as with market conditions as they are I think probably worth still looking to to go along And if you can get it lower down fantastic Is the way that I would look at it any questions as usual. Obviously, please do let us know the The dollar pair is just having a little bit of a A breather but worth certainly for the Kiwi and the Aussie just having a look at these lower levels With the Canadian dollar if they were to break understandably just having a bit of a pause now Stocks looking to turn around a bit keeping on that dex on that key level support The s&p just having a little bounce from it. So if that was to go you might get a further move Key levels above in oil and that trend line also important And gold seems like the only way is to the sky Any questions as usual, please do let us know if I don't speak to you. Hope you have a great trading day