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The first five days is basically all selling with a little bit of dead cap bounces in the middle of it, lots of fake outs to the upside. But overall, we started selling back off afterward. So we kind of did go against the seasonality a little bit, but we will go into that next because we do actually have a pretty good week in terms of seasonality this week. But for now, we'll go over the economic calendar real quick. We do have a lot of data this week. Well, I wouldn't say a lot, but we do have some big ones this week. It's going to be CPI and PPI Monday, January 8th. We do have consumer credit. This is always a hit or miss if it affects the market. It comes out at 3pm an hour before the close Tuesday, the trade deficit. This usually doesn't affect the market. Wednesday, we do have wholesale inventories and we do have one Fed speaker at 315 Thursday. This is when all the big data comes out here. We have CPI core CPI CPI year over year and core CPI year over year. It's pretty straightforward. We want to see inflation continuing lower. So we know that Fed hikes are working and we don't have to see any more increases in the near future. It's pretty straightforward. So I want to see that trend lower on CPI as well as on Friday, January to the 12th. We want to see that trend lower on the PPI, which is the producer side. If the producer side starts increasing, that means it gets passed on to the consumer. So we want to see lower PPI as well on the producer side to kind of match the CPI as well. So that's for the data this week. Really just pay attention to Thursday and Friday. The other is not so much. I did see some Fed speakers from the FOMC are supposed to be speaking this week on a different news outlet I was looking at, but I don't see it here on the economic calendar. So maybe we do have a couple more Fed speakers that they just don't have mentioned here. But right now I just see that one on Wednesday. That's going to be John Williams at 315 and on to the seasonality. So this week is actually a pretty positive for seasonality. So we got January 8th to the 12th, which is our trading week this week. You can see winning trades are sitting at 80%. This is the 10 year data set. So overall positive on the 10 year. If we knock that up to 15, you can see that it's also positive sitting at a 73% winning trades rate. And then if we go up to 20 years, it's also very similar, 75% winning trades. So for the 10, 15 and 20 year data sets, seasonality looks pretty good this week. And then we do start to average a dip after this week historically. So we'll see how that goes. We kind of did get that a little bit early last week and seasonality wasn't really pushing for or even showing a pullback last week. Really, maybe just some consolidations. You can see right here, the fifth, the fourth, the sixth, the seventh, that's all kind of choppy if you look very closely. And then this week is kind of like the trend push from the eighth to the 12th. So we'll see how that goes. Maybe we can get some positivity. I feel like a lot of people have been waiting for a market dip. So maybe they'll buy that back up. Obviously with CPI and PPI on Thursday and Friday, it is kind of a hit or miss. It's a total gamble and you really have no idea. Economic data is just very unpredictable. But overall, as long as you just, you know, trade safe and maybe buy time on your contracts or anything you trade, if you hold through the data, even if it draws down, it's really not too bad. As long as you have time on your side, you're always going to have to deal with drawdown risk in the market. And not to the setups for this week. So this first one we're looking at is PayPal. This is actually going to be a longer term setup that I'm looking at. It's pretty straightforward. It's trying to form this inverse head and shoulders. You got the first shoulder, you got the head and you got a second shoulder or higher low trying to form right now. You can see overall, it does have this downtrend line. You got a test one, test two. This is actually almost three weeks of stalling out or rejection. As you can see by these bars, this is one week bar, one week bar, one week bar, so three weeks worth of stalling out and consolidation at the downtrend line. We need to see a get over that overall, if we can get over that. Plus the neckline is 6413. If we can get over that 6413, that is confirming a neckline break. So keep it simple. Watch this over the next couple of weeks, maybe a month. This is a higher time frame setup, so it might take time. In validation, if it starts going back under the shoulder too low, obviously it could probably dip down to 53s or 55s still and it could still hold the shoulder. But you just got to be careful. Make sure you watch the 5729. If it does start to break under that, just be a little bit more skeptical. Obviously, you don't have to completely not look for the pattern anymore. But if it gets under 55, it's probably kind of reaching a tipping point where you don't want to, you know, really look for that shoulder anymore. But overall, if it can break out of this downtrend line plus the 64, that will confirm the second shoulder and it could take it higher. So this is a long term setup paypal looking at calls. But with further out expiration, maybe wait for the pattern to confirm. Maybe wait for that breakout on the line at least. If it breaks out of this downtrend line, it probably makes it easier for it to break out of that 64 neck line and it will go to the upside. So that's for paypal. Be patient. Higher time frame setup could take a little bit. So for number two here, we're looking at HD or Home Depot. This is a pretty straightforward setup. It's just a back test trade as well as it's kind of back testing. It's one day, nine and 21 EMA combo. You get your nine, 21 right here. Went ahead and added a little cursor thing that way it's a little bit easier to see. The mouse is kind of small. So here's your nine and 21 combo. Here's your 338 back test resistance right here. And you can see Friday actually had a pretty big push off of that back test area. And that also confirmed a 21 EMA balance as well. If it can get over this little one day nine, three forty fours or so, three forty three, something like that. If it can push over that, obviously that could take you back. Probably try to test this little fifty two week high, which is going to be like three fifty fives or so. It's just also this one point two seven two Fibonacci extension. And that extension is from this measurement going down. Or so you got your point A point B. This is your one point two seven two extension or breakout target over your point A breakout. So that's probably why I saw that resistance. That's usually the first price target on a breakout like this. The one point two seven two always has that potential to see that resistance. It's kind of just a Fibonacci basic. What's a break start with the one hundred percent your first price targets that one hundred and twenty seven percent or the one point two seven two. So that's for HD looking pretty good for a back test trades pretty straightforward. Three thirty eight is a big back test support level. As long as it's holding over that, I feel like this trade idea is pretty good for the upside. As well as you got this MACD going negative. So that kind of does invalidate the trend a little bit. But obviously MACD does lag. I like to consider the moving averages more than the MACD. But overall it looks good. Just make sure it stays over three thirty eight. So HD looking at calls and validation below three thirty eight. Hopefully it can get back up to that three fifty five over time. Obviously, if you're trading short term options on this or just day trading, you don't need to aim for the full three fifty five that could take a couple days. Anyways, HD is kind of a slow mover, except for this little uptrend right here. It moved up pretty fast. But overall it is a large cap. So, you know, it does take time on these sometimes. So just be patient. Make sure it's breaking over that one day nine EMA and this back test trade could be looking great. And number three, we're going on to UPS. So I was actually watching this last week, little wedge break out. But as well as what caught my eye was the nine and twenty one combo holding at your nine twenty one right under it. Pretty good consolidation off of this as well as you go to the short term time frames. You do have multiple areas of support holding a bounce here, bounce here, bounce here, bounce here, even got a bounce over here as well. But this is like quadruple support. So this is a good range to trade off of. So Friday, you got UPS confirming relative strength. You got it up over one percent. Well, the spot closing relatively flat. That's another good sign really on any of these PayPal HD UPS. These are all relatively in pretty good strength compared to the indexes, which close relatively flat. So by definition, that is relative strength on the intraday basis. But like I said, EPS here, you got your nine and twenty one combo. Also, here's your 50. You see this red one price has been trending over this 50 the last couple weeks since the beginning of December. And this is regardless of FTX is awful earnings with the 12 percent gap down. EPS has been holding pretty good. So you got your nine and twenty one combo holding. I feel like this looks good for a potential move back up to the one day two hundred EMA, just keep it simple. Or this one sixty three, which the one day two hundred EMA will probably get to that one sixty three point by the time it even got up there anyways. So the one sixty three is plus the two hundred EMA should probably meet at the same spot by the time it gets up there, if it can get up there. It looks like there's a little short term wake right here. You probably need to watch on the short term. It's going to be a one sixty one sixty break or one sixty fifty takes you up to the one sixty threes. But overall, this consolidation looks good. That's what I like about it. Also short term breakout trending over your three mid term moving averages. Still trending under your long term 200. That's the only downside. That's why you use that as a price target. And really, you wouldn't get any more bullish until it starts breaking over that longer term one day two hundred EMA. So your nine twenty one fifty more short to medium term moving averages. Long term is going to be your one day two hundred EMA. So that's for EPS looking at calls. Good relative strength. Just make sure it stays over the nine twenty one combo. Also overall stays over your one day fifty EMA. If it starts breaking under those, just throw away the thesis. And on to our last individual ticker before we go on to the indexes and go into a nice little breath indicator that we covered last week. We're looking at M.U. here. This is pretty straightforward. It's a really nice demand reaction from Friday's candle. This is a nice push up. You got rally base rally. This is a big sell imbalance that led to a big buy imbalance. So this is a good demand zone. Something happened in this candle to lead to buying. Also, it probably matches up with their earnings. Looks like they had earnings that day as well. So there's a lot of volume, lots of participation to bring this higher. That's why when it came back down to this zone from the day prior from earnings, you have a good little short term reaction off of demand right here. So you got one good bounce here. You got another polling right here. Another good bounce on Friday. So good reactions to demand. And like I said, this is a rally based rally zone. So looking for a short term pop on this. You have your one day nine, 21 EMAs holding pretty good. It looks like it just closed right at the nine. But overall, this is kind of looking like HD and UPS, you know, holding its nine and 21 EMA combos is higher lows. So you just be looking for that push up to the recent 52 week high or the, you know, recent resistance or local top. That's going to be around the 86s might even be close to 87. It's going to be 86 70s or so. And I think 86 24 is also a point, probably an old point. Let's see. Yeah. 86 24. So the 86 24 comes from this March 2022 level. And that's why it's meeting all the way over here. Also found resistance to that area as well. Once it got back under with this candle, that 86 24 became resistance again. So watch the 86 24. If you can push back up looking for a short term trade on this. Similar to HD, you got your MacD is negative. But overall, like I said, your one day nine and 20 ones are holding. This is a higher low for now basis, holding good, good reaction off demand, looking for that pop back up to resistance. So keep it simple in validation, likely if it starts falling under this trend line. But overall, if it does pull into this trend line for some reason, that test three could be a good trade as well, because you got, you would have a test three plus demand all meeting it in the same area. Probably try to pop right there short term. So test one, test two, if it came back down, this would be a test three in this general area or, you know, wherever it tests. So that's for M.U. looking at calls on that as well. Basically, all calls this week might be willing to do some puts, you know, on the indexes or spy or KQQ, but it just depends only short terms. Right now trend is still relatively in order. Your one week moving averages on the index is all still in order as well. Obviously, with the data coming out on Thursday and Friday, anything can happen. So PayPal, look at the long term. HD UPS and M.U. probably look at relatively short term because your price targets are relatively close. I mean, HD UPS and M.U. all have that resistance just above and are trying to pop off higher lows. So just make sure, you know, you're not staying in for too long. Make sure you're taking profit. If it can get up here, same with UPS, get your resistance here. Same with HD, got your resistance relatively close as well. So these are higher low trades, all three of them. If it gets back up to resistance, that would be a relatively short term trade if it can get up there this week and on to the indexes. So for spy last week, I mentioned that this 470s was probably the better area to be looking for dip buys. So I didn't really try to buy the dip up here. I wanted to wait for it to get down to 470s or at least close to it. And we finally did that. As you can see, there's a couple of attempts off of demand to go to the 15 minute I can show you. So you got your first initial test off-demand were pretty nice short term bounce here as well as a big upthrust candle right here. We pull deeper into it right here. Pretty nice bounce off of right here, pulled even deeper to the demand zone low, really big pop off it right here. And then it looks like we dipped just briefly under it and actually was a little liquidity hunt because they took it right back over. Same right here at the close, took it back under, took it back over. So kind of just reclaiming these demand zone lows. So I would still count this demand zone as a pretty good area to watch. That's what I'm kind of expecting a bounce this week, holding the base relatively good as well as you kind of got this little channel here on the one hour. So it looks like this lower channel line on the one hour is holding. If you go to the 15 minutes also, you know, 15 minute channel as well. Overall, it looks like it'll probably try to pop back up here, head back up to the upper channel line at least. So that's the highest I can project for now. I can project higher if we can break out of the channel, probably try to back test and then we go higher. It will need to start clearing this 470 and also 471 18. If you can start getting over those, you can get even more bullish. But like I said, it has to break out of this channel first. So don't expect too much for right now. At least maybe expect this channel line to get tested eventually. And then likewise, you know, if it starts breaking under the channel to the downside, likewise, you'd probably want to start projecting lower or expecting downside similar to as you would if you were, you know, expecting a breakout. If it starts breaking under the channel line, probably start expecting it to go lower. So you've got to look at both sides. There's really can't have too much of a bias into one direction. I never have and I never will. I'm skeptical pretty much about everything that I look at skeptical about every setup I look at, every direction. You got to have that in the back of your mind to be ready to switch or to be able to say you were wrong, to be able to look at something else, etc. So for right now, like I said, spy, you know, holding the bottom of demand for now, demand zone is holding. Look for upper channel line first thing, break out of the channel. Got to break those 470 to 471s, thinking it over that really nice upside potential. So that's for the spy. And next, we'll go ahead and look at the breadth indicator for how many S&P stocks are above their 50 day moving average, which I feel like gave us a good signal last week. We had this indicator at a local top. And I kind of mentioned to be skeptical just due to the fact that the last three times they reached this zone, breadth kind of sold off a little bit and also the market sold off a little bit short term. That's exactly what we got last week. So we're going to go ahead and look at it again this week, which it's kind of relatively unchanged. So we're looking at it last Sunday. I'm sorry, last Monday, I think, because we didn't start trading till Tuesday. So here we were the last time it was at the 89s. And then Monday, it looks like breadth had a nice pop up. But then overall kind of came back down as well as the market came back down on the one day. Even QQQ had an awful close as well on the week. So let's say the breadth indicator gave a really good signal. I mean, we had most of the S&P stocks above their 50 day moving averages all at the same spot here on the indicator. You get a top here, a top here, and a top here. And it basically just followed that. And if you looked at really any other indicator like S&P stocks above their 100 day moving averages or 20 day, it's all kind of similar. Really, whatever one you use for breadth is kind of going to give you similar signals. There's going to be some type of correlation with breadth and the market. So if you got breadth selling off like this, you're going to have, you know, the spy selling off likewise. So for right now, it looks like breadth is holding, you know, this nine and 21 combo pretty well. I would say it respects the nine and 21's similar to how the SPX would like you got a downtrend here. It comes back and tests the 21 right here, sells back off more. Same thing right here. Likewise, you got a higher low right here at the nine and 21 pulls in right here, higher, low, higher, low, higher, high, et cetera. So if I was a pretty good right now, breadth still trending over your nine and 21's. And I feel like for breadth to collapse more, if you want to see more downside of the market, we'll have to get under the 21 starts getting under that 21. This kind of breaking structure. I'm guessing that the spy would also break structure. If breadth collapses like this as well, because that means you got most stocks above their 50 day movie coverage also selling off at the same time, which kind of covers the general broad market rather than just the, you know, magnificent seven like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, all those Apple had a very, very reclose last week sold off almost 6%. I feel like Apple had a big influence on the market last week, as well as lots of profit taking, a little bit of geopolitical fears, et cetera. So starting out this year has been pretty rough in terms of the first five days of the market. But overall, you know, trend is still in order. If we looked at spy in the one week, you know, it's still holding over its one day nine EMA. You got your nine and 21 combo on the one week still holding. So trend is still in order just with some slight resistance also kind of topped out at its all time high resistance as well. So this was kind of do now. Hopefully we can follow the seasonality this week. See a short term pop at least, you know, before it tries to go lower if it wants to go lower. And then, like I said, seasonality after the 12th, you kind of start to do getting that pullback and as well as mid-February kind of do get the same thing at the midpoint of the month, bigger pullbacks. But overall, I mean, January is pretty chill for the most part. And then Voltaudy kind of picks up mid-February. The dip does get a little bit bigger historically, but we do have a nice rally at the beginning from the end of January to the midpoint of February. So hope all that helps. We still do have breadth at this pretty much same spot as last week. We kind of dig it a little bit of a change. As you can see, breadth sold off just a little bit and it did react to the local tops that we looked at last week. So overall, still kind of a little skeptical up here for longs in terms of the market on the spy at least. I feel like the QQQ gave a better discount last week. It dipped harder and it's a little bit more oversold on the spy. But spy structure is still holding pretty good. Like I said, it needs to break out of that short term channel and that's about it. And then for breadth to collapse, needs to break under that one day 21. So that's all you should take from this. And as well as you get the MACD still negative here on the breadth indicator as well. So for breadth to go positive again, I'm guessing that would have to start crossing back up similar to this trend right here. You can see when the MACD was positive right here, breadth had a pretty good run up. And then we kind of did start slowing down here, installing out once the MACD went negative. And last but not least, we're going to the QQQ, which is actually at a better buy zone. So I felt like last week, this is a pretty good area to look for dip buys, but it actually just buttered. So we had this rally based rally zone, which we bounced from right here back on December 20th, had a nice little run up and we pulled into that on Tuesday, pretty big down day, almost 2% down for the NASDAQ. You can see really no types of dip buys, even this little jump right here in the middle of the demand zone was really not that good. We kind of did have a nice little bounce at the bottom of demand. But then you can see once we actually broke under this demand, this is when we started seeing weakness. You got back tests off the demand zone low right here, rejection, rejection, rejection, all at the bottom of the zone. And then you can see as we start breaking under this zone, each pop is starting to get sold off more aggressively. You can see here's another pop right here, sold off Friday aggressively, but overall trying to make this little bottom structure short term is pretty straightforward. We have a 399 or we could probably just mark 400 and then also a short term of 398 that we need to get over next week. So if QQQ can get over this 398, make a base off that, or maybe we could just blow through it. It will need to get over 400 or 399.50 next. If you can get over that, there is lots of free space to run back up. But overall, the main psychological level is going to be 400 flat. Needs to clear 400 flat. Simple as that. If they can break over 400 flat, the trend will be back in order for the most part. It'll probably start inviting higher time for em buyers in because imagine if we can start seeing that 400 get cleared and start getting back over this old structure right here. That's going to invite a lot of people in. They'll probably try to go for this little gap fill right here from Tuesday, right? You got a bunch of stuff you can go for big sale and balance to fill upward if it can get over 400. So we want to watch that. Keep remaining skeptical below 400 on the QQQ. We are under the 9 and 21 e-mail combo. Get your 9, 21s. It tried to pop up into the 21s. Two big wicks off the general area or just the 400. So we are trending under those. And these candles really don't give you much. And same on spy, your one day candles, these last two are really not giving you much. They're not that bullish and they're not really signaling a reversal to the upside or anything yet. So we will need to start seeing some levels clear to the upside. See a better one day structure and we can see that pop back up. Maybe people will try to buy the dip because a lot of people have been waiting to get in after missing this. And it probably just be short term. That's as much as I can project on spy and QQQ both. I'm not going to project and move all the way back to 52 week highs. Not yet need to see a clear 400 and then spy. We need to see, you know, just keep holding this demand zone low. And I could probably see 472 max for it now. And if it can get over 472, I could see the 52 week highs again. But got to take one level one day at a time. Need to see more bullish structures, a little bit better candle structure here on the one day. But you do have a nice little back test area right here. So this is a short term resistance back in November pullback. Also a breakout zone right here. So this little area is technically support. Also a nice back test area. So as long as that's holding, we can see that move back up to 400. And I need to see how it reacts to 400. And hopefully I can break over that and I can project higher. Like I said, I mean, we can see that gap fill and all these little sell and bail candles fill it upward. So that's the video guys. Hope you guys enjoyed seasonality is in our favor for this week. And then afterwards it kind of does get a little bit shaky. Historically, also have some risky data coming out Thursday, Friday. We got CPI, which is a consumer side and also PPI, which is the producer side. So big inflation data this week. Hopefully everything goes smoothly. I'd like to see the market come back up seasonality is in our favor. Like I said, but need to see some better structures on the indexes on the one day timeframe as well as on the shorter term time frames. So I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel. I'm going to get this chopped up, sent out all that good stuff. So I love you guys and I'm out.