 I hope you all had a fantastic holiday weekend. We are rested up, ready to go for a fun week of MLB DFS. It is going to be kicked off with a bang today, because Jacob DeGrom is the starting pitcher for the Mets for tonight, and you know what to do. When Jacob DeGrom is on the slate, you lock him in and go from there. The dilemma that we have is what we do after DeGrom, because to me, there aren't any really good, obvious alternatives, so we're gonna go through the alternatives to DeGrom, where you go and you're not there, but also a value place to target when you are using our guy, Jacob DeGrom. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down today's 14 game, main slate, with lock set for 7 0 5, 4 2 night. Unfortunately, there are some weather notes for today, one of which is in that game for Jacob DeGrom. It looks like there is the potential for a rain mid game between the Brewers and the Mets. Again, that's the DeGrom game. As of now, I would bet that they are good to start that game and play through it a bit. You'll just check back on the timeline later on for that. So hopefully we're gonna go with DeGrom, but check back on that later on. The win in Wrigley is blowing out once again to right field at 11 miles per hour. It is also 84 degrees with 59% humidity. That is tremendous hitting conditions for the Phillies and the Cubs. Also looks very rainy in Minneapolis for the Twins and the White Sox. I would be wary of that game as I think there's a very good chance that game gets rained out. So be cautious with Twins, White Sox. Check back later on Mets and Brewers and bump up bats for the Cubs and the Phillies. The 2021 NBA Finals are finally upon us and Fanduel and Taco Bell are teaming up to add an extra layer of excitement to the action. 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In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. For confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee, call the red line 1-800-899-79 or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-gambler.net. Pitching preview for this Tuesday main slate, Jacob DeGrom, shocker, the highest salary pitcher on Fanduel. He checks in at $11,800 followed by Carlos Rodan at $10,600. Nathania Valde is 10-3. Fromber Valdez is 10-2. Aaron Nola on the road against the Cubs is 10,000. Chris Bassett also 10-k. Jose Barrios is $9,900 in that potential ranked game against Rodan. Pablo Lopez facing the Dodgers, 9-5. Then we have like 97 pitchers at $8,000 or higher. Those are Johnny Cueto, Merle Kelly, Luis Castillo, Ian Anderson, John Gray, Adam Wayne Wright and Steven Matz at $8,000 or higher for today. Now with DeGrom, I still think he's under salary here despite being 11-8. Shocker, he is number one on our list for today. The pitch count got worked back up last time out. DeGrom went 93 pitches, which is his most since he came off the injured list. And they were 93 disgusting, brilliant, beautiful, magnificent pitches at that. He had 14 strikeouts across 26 batters face. And that was against Atlanta on the road. His second time facing them in a three-star span, he was disgusting. Now he's back at home and facing the Brewers. They have been improving. They've been playing really good baseball overall, but they often still underwhelming. They have a 90 WRC plus versus righties with a 26% strikeout rate. And you're putting that in a plus park for pitching, which will always help. Overall, DeGrom's strikeout rate is 45% since he cut back on the usage of his foreseam fastball. So it's possible this is a reduced version of him where he's not throwing that foreseamer as much, but it's still really freaking good. 45% strikeout rate, not gonna argue with that. That's why I am high on him. I will note that there is one flaw with DeGrom right now. And it's that he's letting up a lot of hard contact. He has allowed a 48% hard hit rate in that five-star sample. His flyball rate is 44%. And the Brewers have some guys who can bop. It's not a big list, but there are some guys there who are pretty decent. So I would not be shocked if it is a situation similar to what we had last week, where he lets the three-run home run at some point in the game. That is fully in play. But so is 14 strikeouts. And that works for me. So it is worth noting that the profile here is not perfect for DeGrom. There is the potential for some dingers given the hard contact, given the flyballs. But despite that, he still needs to be number one on our list by a pretty significant margin for tonight. Now let's start all those studs earlier. And all those guys are either in tough matchups, rough conditions, repeat matchups. Now we talked about Rodan. Not only is the weather there bad, but also facing the Twins for a second consecutive start. Eavaldi is facing the Angels. They're very good. Valdez faces the A's. Nola on the road. Not a good situation for him in general, but also rough weather for pitching. Bassett facing the Astros. Barrios facing the White Sox. Lopez facing the Dodgers. All those guys are in rough spots. So to me, that means if I'm not using DeGrom, I probably want to save some salary and get to a different roster construction than those who use DeGrom's Knights. And there are a couple routes for doing so. One of those is Ian Anderson against the Pirates. I like the floor, the median expectation for Anderson a lot in this game. Mostly that's because of the matchup. The Pirates are really rough against Witeys with an 84 WRC plus and just a 147 ISO. And Anderson should be able to work through that because he's a good real world pitcher. He has had less movement on his foreseeing fastball over his past eight starts, but in that time, his skill interactive ERA is still 3.75. He has a lot of minimal walks. He's still keeping hitters on the ground pretty often. That's why the floor to me is very good for Anderson. The reason I'm not going to be super high on Anderson, despite the low salary, despite the fact that there's not a lot of great stuff elsewhere, is that I'm questioning his ceiling. His strikeout rate in that time is just 24%. The Pirates have a 22% strikeout rate versus Witeys that is better than the League average. So I'd prefer a higher mark than that. Anderson does have some single game upside because he had nine strikeouts on the road against Cincinnati, which is very much a better team than Pittsburgh. I just don't know if he has double digit strikeouts inside his range of outcomes. And that's his limitation. So if I'm not going to Grom, I am willing to use Anderson. But the reason I can't say, oh, actively seek him out, feel great about him, is because I am concerned about the ceiling and that will impact my exposure to Anderson a pretty decent amount. So Anderson probably on that list behind to Grom for me, probably he's a top three pitcher for me, but still, that's why I'm so adamant that I want to use to Grom for tonight, despite the salary. The other guy from a value play perspective outside of Grom is the exact opposite of Anderson, where it is all ceiling, no floor. And that guy is John Gray. I know, I know. Gray has made two starts since coming off the injured list, and the pitch count is built back up. He went 95 pitches last time out, and he's looked pretty good in those two starts. He's had a really good velocity on both his fores, saying fastball on his slider. He's gotten a ton of whiffs in both those games, too. His swinging strike rate was 18% of one game, 14% in the other. Both those games came against really soft competition. They were against the Brewers and the Pirates, but it's soft against Knight. He's facing the Diamondbacks, and we know they've got issues. They have an 83 WRC plus versus righties, with a 25% strikeout rate and a 137 ISO. Plus the roof will be closed for tonight. They've already said that. Roof will be closed tonight. That helps things from a pitching perspective a lot. So Gray has a ceiling. If he can continue to do what he's done post-injured list, he can be great, especially in this matchup. That's why I like the ceiling. The floor is bad because it's John Gray. He was not getting a ton of strikeouts before he got hurt. So basically, it's a leap of faith that he's actually better now than he was pre-injury. That's possible that he is. I'm not sure that he is, which is why it's a risk, but it's a risk I am okay taking for $8,300 in a really nice matchup. So I think that it's a good situation for Gray. I am willing to use him. I do want to note and I think that it's worth it. So that's where at tonight, there's really no obvious alternative to Jacob DeGramme. So I would say just get as much DeGramme as you can stomach and then go Anderson and Gray after that and hope that one of them does hit and either get the floor from Anderson or the ceiling from John Gray. The stacking discussion for today will be centered around DeGramme because again, we're trying to use him a lot. So it's going to have DeGramme heavily in mind looking out for some value plays. And luckily I think that potentially the top stack of the night is one that just naturally has some value plays and that's Texas. The hitting conditions and all into not ideal because the roof also likely to be closed there, but I still think we should stack the Rangers against Jose Orenia. Orenia is just not pitching well right now. He has been throwing a slider less since the sticky stuff discussion began. And it ain't going great. His skill interactive ERA is 5.98. He has a 12% strikeout rate and both those are the worst marks on tonight's slate. The hard hit rate against Orenia is up to 49%. And his fly ball rate is up to 38%. That is now higher than league average. Like that was one thing Orenia was doing well early in the year was getting ground ball, stuff like that. That's not a strength anymore. It's actually becoming a weakness. His ERA is 12.50 in this time. He has led up at least three runs in every single start. And he led up seven runs twice in a five-star sample. Not all those were in great hitting conditions either. So it does stink that this game is likely going to be indoors. I am annoyed by that for sure, but I am still very okay putting it high on my list for stacking for tonight, given how good the match it is. And given the fact the Rangers do give us some solid value for today. Now, because again, Instagram, we want to find some value here and we got plenty of it with the Rangers. Nate Lowe and Eli White are $2,600 and $2,200 respectively. Both those guys have at least some pop. They will put the ball in the air. So I like both of them. Jonah Hine hit fifth for them last night and he's been hitting the ball much better recently, which is probably why I got moved up to fifth. I'm not sure if that will stick, but he's $2,000. He also might not play because he's a catcher. So keep that in mind. But I would say if you use two between Lowe, White and Hine, you should be able to get to Adolis Garcia and Joey Gallo, even near your Grom lineup. So lean on those extreme values in the Rangers, try to get up to the two really good batters on this team and then go from there. But overall, the Rangers, a team, I am very willing to stack for tonight, despite the fact that Roof will likely be closed in Arlington. Jake Arietta has been struggling a lot recently and now he's facing the Phillies with the wind blowing out of Wrigley. So it is a revenge game for Arietta against the Phillies, but I am down to stack against him. He are much better hitting conditions here than what we have with the Rangers in Arlington. For Arietta, the big shift for him since the start of June is that he's throwing fewer curveballs, kind of similar to Arrhenius or in Les Sliders. Arietta throwing fewer curveballs and it could be because he can't grip the curveball the same way, but either way, it hasn't been good for Arietta. He has a 4.85 skill interactive ERAE with a 21% strikeout rate in that time. He's walked a lot of batters and he's let up a 50% hard hit rate. Arietta is still getting ground balls and that does matter for stacking, but it hasn't really deterred offences from putting up runs against him. The Metz and Marlins both scored four runs off him. The Brewers had six last week, though three of those were unearned. He's just not pitching well right now and he now has to pitch in really good hitting weather and that's not likely to end well given how things have gone for Arietta recently. I think it makes a lot of sense to stack the Phillies here and see what they can do against their old teammate. We do wanna favor lefties against Arietta. Ground ball rate goes down to 38% against them compared to 46% against righties and it's not hard to find good lefties on this Phillies team. Obviously you've got Harper at the top but then you have Odubel Herrera, Didi Gregorius for value. Didi's been hitting the ball pretty well since coming back from the injured list. So I would say Odubel, Didi, Bryce, all those guys definitely work and then if they do put Brad Miller in the lineup, then sweet, sign me up. So check out the value lefties here, check out Harper, then pop in, Hoskins or Elmuto, McCutcheon, whoever it may be who wants to be in there for the Phillies for today and go from there. So just kinda check out what the lineup looks like. Go towards the lefties first and then the righties when filling out your Phillies stacks. For our third stack, we've talked a bunch about how I prefer the Reds versus righties instead of lefties but it seems like every time they're in a good matchup, it's against the lefties. They get that again tonight and I think we should kinda just suck it up and stack them here despite the fact we prefer if they were facing a rightie. If facing Chris Bubic and Bubic is back in the rotation for the Royals after having been sent to the bullpen last month that generally means things were not going well and the peripherals back that up here. Since initially joining the rotation back in May, Bubic has a 5.03 skill interactive ERA. His strikeout rate is 19% with an 11% walk rate. His hard hit rate allowed is 49%. The five ball rate is about average but when it's average as opposed to better than average, we'll take that given the rough numbers everywhere else. We saw Bubic get sent back to the bullpen because he had three straight really rough starts. He came back in the rotation last week and promptly let up five runs in three homers across four innings. So it's hard to see him turning things around even if Cincinnati is not great against lefties. So I wanna stack since he here and I think we should feel good about doing so for tonight. The one thing that's helpful here for the Reds is that they do gain a DH for today because we had talked, not sure if it was last week or the week before about Ari State as a keynote and the dangers of using him against lefty because he would often leave games once the lefty left the game, whether it be for a defensive placement or for a pinch hitter. But last night they're facing a lefty, a keynote started and played the entire game. So having the DH there better allows a keynote to stick around so he gets a massive, massive boost up for me in this situation with a DH versus when they are in a nationally game and having the pitcher in there as well. So I love a keynote at $2,200. Tyler Stevenson as always is in play for value at $2,500 in the Reds. A team I am good turning to for tonight, Nick Castellanos. We'll find out what somber thing he will disrupt for tonight because he has an act for that. But as always, Castellanos in play versus a lefty. Let's finish up here, thanks to Wajah couple teams. Gonna be going with bullpen games for tonight. Those are the Orioles and the Nationals. Neither bullpen is terrible. So I'm not stacking the Padres against the Nats. I would at least consider the Blue Jays against the O's though. It is tremendous hitting conditions in Baltimore tonight and the long relievers for Baltimore are solid. They're not like shutdown type guys. So the Blue Jays probably gonna rank sixth for me in stacking, the rank behind the top three we discussed earlier, but also the two we're about to discuss now. So check out the Blue Jays, but rank them below the other stacks we discussed thus far. And also behind the Braes and the Yankees. Let's talk about them now. The Braes are facing Chad Cool. Cool has gotten back to limiting hard contact which has kept his ERA in check for the most part, but he's also faced a ton of terrible teams since he came off the injured list. The Braes are not a terrible team and they also have some value plays we can lean on. So I do think the Braes great out well against Chad. Cool for tonight, despite it being not a great park, it's warm which helps, but not a great park overall. The Yankees are facing Justice Sheffield and Sheffield is a guy we can stack against. He has a 4.94 skill interactive ERA with a 56% hard hit rate allowed since he started, getting less movement on his sinker. So on down to seconds, Sheffield here, the reason the Yankees are lower on this list due to hitting conditions because it's cooler in this game that it is in most of the others for tonight. So I mentioned the Rangers before where they're also in cooler hitting conditions. I just like their matchup more than the Yankees. So among the cooler parks for tonight, Rangers won Yankees two. So check out the Yankees, but they ranked behind the Rangers, Phillies, Reds and Braes and slot fifth for me in terms of stacking for today. Let's finish up with our Dinger calls. It is Dinger Tuesday. For those of you who celebrate, congratulations. Welcome to today. Dinger Tuesday. Let's give out a couple of Dingers for tonight. The boring one for me will be Joey Gallo. Gallo finally getting back to hitting for power once again. So Joey Gallo always in play for these in the past. I think that he's back in play once again as a result of the increased power he has been showing recently. The fun one is a guy we discussed before, RECD is Aquino. Probably gonna bat seventh or so for tonight, but hot weather for tonight in Kansas City. Should have the DH. If Aquino does not start, we'll give an alternative option on the Q&A later on today. But for right now, Dinger calls for today are Joey Gallo and RECD's Aquino. As mentioned, we do have the Q&A later on today and it is an extravaganza because Brandon Gadoula has the John Deere Classic DFS and betting talk. That is at 3.30 pm Eastern. Aaron Dolan will be by at 4.30 to break down some NBA betting and I'll have MLB and DFS as always at 4 pm today. That is on the FanDuel YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages. Make sure you are subscribed there, but also make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcast, whatever it may be, you can find us there. Hit the subscribe button, but also leave a rating and review if you like what you hear, PGA podcast with the John Deere Classic coming up later on today with myself and Brandon Gadoula recording live on YouTube at 10 o'clock and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that. If you have questions for me before 4 pm, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good to be back with you once again. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. Good luck tonight. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel podcast network.