 what's up guys this is alex from xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list i post these every sunday and we also get a written report out for you in the watchlist channel so today we're going to be going over five setups um it's going to be four long setups one short and then we're also going to go over the indexes so we're going over the es-smp500 and q which is the nasdaq futures ym which is the dow and then the vixx and the dollar as well all right so let's go into our first one this is soxo so this is actually a 3x leveraged semiconductor etf so this will have like your you know nvidia amd probably like intel you know all weighted into this index um and then that's leveraged 3x so you can see we have a downtrend line um you got test one test two test number three breaks out kind of does a little back test right here um and you can see it closed with a really nice candle on friday um really good volume down here one could argue that this is peak volume so once it hit the bottom here you can see you know maybe institutions are starting to you know accumulate down here but breakouts are really nice um you'll be looking for a move back to this previous um this previous support right here so that's at about 10 53 so 10 dollars and 53 cents let's get our brush out real quick so we'll take our brush um we have probably a quick move and then you'd probably see some resistance right there very short term um so maybe a quick day trade let's get out of this real quick okay but you can also see you have a small gap right here as well so right click that pick the gap and you can see so yep that's it that's our little gap um if it can get over that 10 53 resistance there's a really good chance that um you know it can fill that small gap and then maybe go up to the um 12 53 or uh 12 13 resistance right here so yeah that's xxl we'd be looking at calls on this so this is a bullish breakout um bullish you know downtrend line break and then um chance to fill the gap if we can get over 10 53 you can maybe see 12 13 um stop loss try to add those just so you have something to go off um for a day trade you'd be looking at you know this low right here the little 848 um if you're doing a swing trade you know you'd have to have it under 52 week low which is usually um a good stop loss okay so then we'll go into our next one this is Verizon so take a symbol with easy you can see another downtrend line breakout you got one test two three test number four and you do have this 3770 um resistance right here and I marked it with the yellow so you can you know highlight the fact that this is a pretty important resistance level um you'd want to see it you know get over it break retest hold it and then maybe go higher so you want to see a breaking and holding over this maybe do a back test and then try to go higher so just like we um I pointed out on the ES last week we want to get over that october peak right and then we wanted to break out we wanted to back test then go higher and that's exactly what we did so we'll go into that we'll get into ES but I just wanted to compare the structures so looking for that um 3770 break looking for it to hold and you maybe see a move you know back up to the supply maybe even this little 50 EMA right there yeah so just using the supply and I'm moving average as a target if it can do better than that you know you'd have to start drawing in more supplies because there is another one right here and there's another supply right here um there's old support over here so but you know we're keeping it let's see what this um percentage would be so if you entered it at 37 you'll say like 3775 you're going to have to supply catching about a five percent move you know just off the equity um with options that's obviously leveraged so you'd be making a little more than you know much more than five percent depending on your expiration um stop loss on this let's see it looks like there's a little demand base candle right here so let's draw in our demand um you probably need your stop loss under the demand zone low and you can see over here that's a 3613 and then the top of the zone is you know 3669 strike this over a little bit so yeah the rear stop loss and like a day trade or if it went back inside the downtrend um that would also be you know I'll even add the brush down here that we're going to go look forward to there so if it you know faked out went back in the downtrend line um your downtrend break out would probably invalid so you'd want to go ahead and you know stop out but the good thing about Verizon um if you're in a swing trade there's a lot of cushion right you got a demand zone here you got a demand zone here um this is a rally base drop this one uh in the middle so rally base rally so yeah so you can see you just got you got two zones for cushion it'd be good for swing trading but day trade short-term trades you you know sometimes you need a tight stop so just watch those next we're going to riot so this is riot blockchain this is a crypto play on the stock market um another one that you know you could watch too is like mara it's a ticker symbol m a r a they have a little bit of bitcoin and ether holdings and I think they'd be like mining and stuff too but um usually a pretty hot um crypto play when crypto is running on its own markets um sometimes this you know will run for equities but you can see really nice falling wedge breaks out hits this nasty supply I'll even label it for you real quick so hits the top of the supply comes back down um and then holding a back test so this little hammer or bullish candle right here um you know it's a good sign that it is holding the back test and you'd more than likely see a move back up to the supply or probably try to you know reject around there if you could get over supply you'd be looking for it to hold over a break retest and then head up to this next eight um eight dollar and sixty cents area so yeah um short-term supply if you can get over looking for it to make a base off that off the top and then you know head up to the next resistance stop loss um for a day trade probably looking under Friday's low right there um pretty typical the or if it you know same thing with the other downtrend lines of it you know went back inside um you're more than likely going to get invalidated and or it could even spend time chopping around here back testing more before going higher so you know just watch that and um make sure you're making your decisions and you know taking good option contracts adobe so I really like this one um you do have the breakout you got test one test two um test three over here I didn't really see a rejection on the test but either way this is breaking the downtrend line right now having a little trouble at um is that gap resistance and also this daily 50 EMA that you see um if you wanted to get over the 50 EMA obviously but there's a really good chance it will fill this gap find resistance there and then try to you know come back down so um for confirmation though you want to see it get over this 330 58 looks like we'll right click that uh zone add alert and we're looking for the crossover um that'll give us good confirmation that's entering the gap um we would also know for a fact that it would be over the 50 EMA area so um you already do have the confirmed breakout but um we do want confirmation over that 330 level make sure that you know it's getting over the 50 and also getting over this little rejection point where you see that um strong wake and then you can see um here let's let me show you where I got the supply for them because it's not the cleanest on the daily chart but if you go to this this is a nasty drop based drop uh supply zone let me find this tool real quick so you got a drop creates a base drop and um you know your bullish base candles always supply so um you can see just nasty bullish base candles something changed here to lead to dropping and we know for effect that was this earnings report so that's all you're doing you're looking for an imbalance area up here you're looking for something that changed up here to lead to this event once the price returns back to the area you know for effect that you have an imbalance area that previously reacted so a lot of time you'll see sellers meeting up here algorithms institutional traders because they saw other people sold up here so yep so we're just looking for that gap look for 330 and then um stop loss you know this is a pretty big gap fill so this would be need to be a swing trade um mostly if you were trying to you know just catch a date trade and maybe kill a little quarter half of the gap um you would need to stop loss under this little structure right here that's like 316 um it'd probably break under that flush um per swing trade you know 52 week low max although that would give you a pretty big draw down so you want to be careful with that um maybe even use my suggestion of you know if it went back inside the downtrend you know you'd probably need to go ahead and exit so you know that the doby um over 330 looking for a gap fill the main rejection area would probably be this way to supply next we're going to cvx so this is a oil play um one of the biggest holdings in the xle so this cvx and xl both make up about 15 to 20 i believe of the xle etf so if you see these two moving it's most likely going to replicate the you know that's what pretty much makes xle do what it does um just because it has such a high weighting and obviously a lot of others you know have a big role as well but um in terms of looking the same as chars i'd say exxon and cvx do have very similar charts in terms of the energy sector so you do have this big rally beach drop supply it's just totally nasty let's draw it out you got a rally i'm getting locked here one second okay we have a rally creates a base drop to the downside so this is a rally base drop supply um this is its first test since you know ever making this resistance so usually the first area as a test is very good for resistance if we went down to friday you can see it once it got up here on the 15 minute time frame i mean just a nasty drop would have been a great day trade but obviously this supply is still valid so you'd be looking for more rejection i really like this setup for puts and i'll give you each setup just to go over it again um so we'd be looking for a drop maybe back down to this demand um that's pretty heavy price target if you wanted to be a conservative we could go down to shorter time frames so here's the regular trading hours um you'd be maybe looking for for a day trade um you'd be looking for that same low from friday the 28th so like 176 53 and then maybe um this little structure right here as well so that's like 174 to you know 172 there's a little bit of support there a little bit of resistance there um definitely support right here so you can see if it rejected supply come back down probably try to curl up there if it broke down maybe try to curl up there and also if it broke all of those it would definitely you know try to curl up about there so that's all you're doing just using structures as price targets making sure you're somewhat conservative um you know because you know shorting these hard rallies does come with a risk so obviously your stop loss is just straightforward it's just if it breaks a new 52 week high you need to get out so you'd be looking for puts on that so xoxl our first one looking for calls downtrend break vz um Verizon downtrend looking for calls riot falling wedge back test looking for calls adobe downtrend break um gap fill looking for calls cvx you do have that rally based drop supply you got resistance you're looking for moved down to 176 53 um maybe 174 175s and then 172 um you know because if you zoomed out to those little small one hour structures and we agreed that support there a little resistance there old support here so those are just some areas to watch for price targets next we are going to go into the ES so the S&P 500 last week um I'll even exit out of this favor real quick so I could focus on the area that we were focused on on last week so we were talking about this October peak right um it was about right here I think on the futures on Sunday night you know we're opening up right at the resistance um this was our main focus all week October peak we did get the breakout which is exactly what we wanted I said we want to see a back test um previous resistance to go higher we did that um we had some crazy earnings reports so obviously you see this huge week down there's a lot of negativity but apple is able to carry us back so um the back test did hold rally back up we made a new you know recent high so um but right now we are watching this downtrend lines we got test one test two we are at test three um so we either want to see it you know break out from here and head to our 200 EMA area um and that would also if we zoom out if we break out that would be heading to our next um trend line we see right there and approach how to reject about there um yeah so this is test number three is a good chance that you know could go back inside um maybe try to hold October peak again make a structure there we'll have to see um futures are only down about 0.2% right now so nothing crazy um there is a little demand zone right here this would be a little rally based rally zone um so there's a good chance even if it came down it would hold up there I wouldn't say that puts have the greatest RR yet um you still have a MACD crossover to the upsides you got positive momentum RSI is not overbought on the daily um I'd say the 200 EMA area would probably be a good area to reshort um but you know we looked at the seasonality and um you know it's looking crazy so here I'll even pull it up for us put a log in let's go to trying to find there we go all right let's go to the S&P 500 since we're looking at the ES seasonality we're looking at the 31st so Halloween hope everybody had a great Halloween weekend by the way went to a haunted house it was very fun all right and let's go up to is that November 4th I think that's the Friday all right um and you can see this is just a 10 year chart you know it does run up pretty well but we don't have midterm years applied yet and that's what I want to do so we'll go to that we're going to midterm elections if we go down I mean it's just a straight shot um so I would not be looking at puts right now the only reason why I like the energy puts is because it is a commodity and sometimes it does you know move a little bit different than your normal tech and other you know types of stocks so yeah so S&P 500 looking really good for a rally this week um just off the seasonality it does average a 1.31% return um this is midterm years of 2022 you know 2018 2014 etc so yeah let's ES um we want to see it you know either reject here for bears or break out you know I feel like each each week I've done this we've been at a serious inflection point last week we were at October Pete as we grew out of downtrend line you want to see it you know break over to head to the next downtrend line or the 200 or you see it reject head back down to the man you can maybe buy the dip there and last week was just amazing I mean our watch list was great um I even got to trade to the setups I got to trade QQQ a little bit we got to trade NVIDIA it was amazing um but all the setups hit pretty good JD was was an exception because it didn't hold our demand zone but it gap down so heavy that it gave a gap filled trade back to the upside so we still were looking for calls we just didn't get the demand zone to hold but um yeah let's get into NQ here so this is NASDAQ this is our tech futures let's pull up a head and shoulders pattern tool so we have a left shoulder we got a head we got our neck line resistance we got another shoulder and there you go so we got an inverse head and shoulders we're looking for a break over um 11,729 dollars and that's our resistance so we want to see it break over this downtrend line that you see make a new base off the neckline before trying to go higher um but yeah this this neckline can still act as resistance this head and shoulders is not confirmed yet let me repeat it's not confirmed yet head and shoulders it's only confirmed on the neckline break inverse head and shoulders same thing only confirmed on the neckline break and your neckline is the resistance so you got test one test two had a test three rejection this is actually technically the test four so yep just looking for the downtrend line break as well um as the october peak resistance which is also the neckline mac d's in a positive momentum signal um rsi is only halfway there not in any overbought territory if you maybe went to the one hour um rsi is pretty high so short term a little extended might need a breather make a structure um four hour not really overbought yet i'd say the four hour rsi is a pretty good indicator uh for overbought conditions etc so yeah that's the tech futures next the dow so this i feel like the dow like just totally saved us this week if you go to the performance it's only down 10 percent year to date um i compared to like es and nq i mean those are down boy like you know anywhere from 15 to 25 percent um so dow does i mean a lot of dow names carried i mean a lot of people rotated you know more into the safety plays i'm guessing um but we could see i mean just an absolute monster reek for the dow so you got test one test two um try to break out as a total fake out back then um and now we are getting back over that line so this is another inflection point um kind of similar to es but es is not even close to its all-time high to now um you know downtrend line if we go back you know it does have to get over this short term one first to get to that dow on the other hand is at the all-time high to current downtrend line so that's something to keep in note of um oh looks like i need to get charged plugged in here soon luckily um you know we don't have too much left to do here but yeah so we want to see you know either it's going to reject here um we make a base on the 200 EMA that you see dotted right here um but this all this is just an in balance area there's no demand until this little you know until these red days right here um in terms of one day daily time frame demand so you got a demand zone right here um we want to see some demand get created up here preferably with a pullback to another high um higher high but yeah so we want to see this holding the breakout if it can um maybe in the next couple weeks it could get back to 34 000 um i wouldn't say it's going to head there straight away though maybe about two weeks um maybe it could get here by the end of the year we'll have to see yeah hopefully the Dow can keep you know keep its strength up um a lot of the names you know did pretty good and maybe they had good earnings or something um totally just carried us this week so watch the Dow um positive MACD signal rsi is a little overbought this is why i wouldn't want to go long the Dow ETF which is DIA um this you know this signal right here you know it's just i don't know any pullback you know you can get screwed i'm pretty me i'm so so next we're going to the VIX we'll go into the data first and what makes the average so Friday we have a 2575 close that brought us up to 2626 for the um 2022 average close you can see that down here it's you know 26.5 259 so i just rounded it up um and then the app also you know rounds this up here uh my number's up so we can see we are below the 50 period EMA that i implemented on this uh we are below the average now too if we go to trading view here we're at the 200 EMA so the VIX there's a good chance it could try to hold up right here um right now with the VIX at the average you're getting average you know price premium so you are getting value on premiums they're not too expensive um and they're not too cheap yet either but the next move for the VIX you know we did say we're looking for the 35 reduction and a mean regression back to the average we finally got that but now since we're in the middle we're going to want to see it stay under this average um that'd be good for bulls um or we want to see another close and start heading back over it for bears uh but based off the seasonality you know there's a good chance that um we are going to rally and that might make a lot of people mad but um wall street is wall street so all right so we want to see a move maybe back down to 22 64 um this is just a weird spot this is the spot where you're waiting um we're gonna either wait for it to get all the way down here and when puts get way too cheap we rebuy puts and wait for a mean regression back up um or you want to you know get it up here and wait for the mean regression back down um this is more like a middle point so you're kind of waiting to see what happens here but um if it does stay under you know let's get for bulls if it you know stays over you know there's a good chance that people are trying to reprice in volatility so I would have also brought our trend line last week and that's exactly what we're looking for and same with the dollar we were looking for that short term um uptrend break which it did you can see test one test two test three broke it which will take us back to our longer term which is what we also went over last uh sunday so same thing um I'm not feeling good about the dollar selling off until this is broken um so you might see it come down try to curl up off the line um if you're a bully you're gonna want to see a breakdown you know curl back up a little bit um or just sell straight off we want to see more aggressive selling on the dollar um next level for the downside would be 107.68 um otherwise if it's holding this trend line you know we could see it come back up and test highs again um maybe even just this little short term peak right here but like 113th um but you can see I mean the dollar is uh has a negative momentum for the MACD um our site isn't oversold yet and it's crossing back down 40 or to the 40 area um so that could be good maybe currency traders are starting to price in you know inflation coming down and equity is being able to have a run so yeah that's everything guys uh we had four longs so four call setups one put setup went over our indexes and um I hope you all got some clarity um last week's was amazing I hope it goes just as well for you guys and for myself and um yeah I'll see you guys on Monday if you guys need anything just reach out to me thank you so much and uh username is alexander underscore 96 on this court thank you