 Okay, hi folks Just switching on the live feed. So gonna give it a few minutes. Make sure everyone is up and running Ables to hear me, but happy Friday. Hope you're good Hope you're ready for payrolls And as per usual, I'll be doing the full in-depth rundown momentarily But just gonna give it a couple of minutes let everyone get up and running Before we get stuck into the preview. Okay, cool. Just just welcoming people on board There's a couple of different places that are actually tuning in from a few different things that we're doing amplify at the moment. So I've just shared the link around. So yeah, I hope everyone's well Drop a comment in the chat. Let us know where you're from Sandy tuning in from India Good to have you with us Yenny Yenny where what country are you in again remind me? I know you you you kindly always watch the YouTube briefing So very much appreciate that Yeah, let us know when you join where you where you're tuning in from We'll have a couple minutes before we kick off formally for the event today So yeah, just just onboarding at the minute and then we'll get into the full swing of things and we'll start talking about payrolls We'll talk about what can we expect? How the market might react we'll run through some of the charts We've got plenty of time got 20 minutes or so to the data hits our friends at New Squawk will then deliver the news as it happens So we'll tune in and listen to them just for the numbers as they come out and then I'll go through and analyze myself and Hopefully this can be useful from a trade perspective, but also from an educational perspective to just see how we would go about Understanding the types of reaction function from something like this a fixed major news driven event So yeah, cool Fabio Germany, Munich great James Oslo Spain Ecuador amazing Philippines hey mark. Wow. What time is it? What time are we on in the Philippines right now? Appreciate you giving up your evening Got sad in Abu Dhabi. Hey Yeah, amazing the joy of Delivering this on this platform, of course people from all over the world. So Fantastic appreciate you joining us as I said if you just joined us, I'm gonna kick off in literally next couple of minutes People just getting on board at the moment. So drop me a comment in the YouTube chat And just let me know say hi Let me know where you're from and then once I can see most people are in will kick off Malaysia Namibia Israel Belgium Wow Sydney Maisie Great Thank you for joining us What time are we on in Sydney right now? Alexander Ross is asking questions They're a book you can recommend on government treasuries and auctions not so much of a book I would say but there is a great website that has a really good explainer for this type of thing And so let me quickly grab the link and I'll share it in that YouTube chat So bear with me There's there's definitely nuance between interpretation of a US government bond auction to a European bond auction So you definitely need to be aware of that and if you follow that link Hopefully it you're able to click on that. Are you able to see that link in the YouTube chat? Hopefully it's clickable That will make a lot more sense Piers current head of trading online as well. Hey Piers Piers Can you see the link that I just posted just want to make sure that if I do share any links that they're visible Hey, Khaled good to have you with us I'm sure the weathering Kingston. Hopefully it's better than it is in London Yeah, I'm gonna talk about my prediction for NFP in a minute So yeah, we'll get into that Okay, we're gonna start in one minute's time Okay, if you can't see the links Let me just quickly change something so I can share the links. So guys just bear with me one moment Because I want to make sure that if you guys, you know want some resources stuff like that that I'm here to help So I want to be able to share some links and stuff. So let me just try one more thing Hopefully this will work. So the question was someone asked me about how to interpret US government bond auctions Try that link now. So it should be posted under amplify trading That's a really good resource really short sharp concise explanation of how to read a government bond auction So not so much broader treasury market specifically about government bond auctions So hopefully you can see that now. All right. Well, look, let's get straight into payrolls. Just conscious of time So let's get into it So gonna kick things off and Let's have a look at the charts this morning. So as per What is always the case ahead and on farm payrolls? we have a little bit of of downtime as people was just still in their hands and wait for the major jobs report obviously to hit and Equity index futures still reside. I mean, we're sat pretty much all-time highs here in the S&P 500 going into this release So, yeah, certainly a breakout of a short-term trend line from the last week Seeing a bit of an acceleration into the close on Wall Street last night bumped us up to print those new highs And then through the European morning, you just continue to move higher at this at this present point in time NASDAQ not quite so bullish in its setup. In fact slight underperformance And at the moment, we're kind of tucked in a bit of a range sandwich between the really the pivot level Which I just bumped this up to here the morning European low close proximity to the Low we had before the ramp in in synchronized US equity equities into the closing bell on an IZ last night to hit that all-time high so All that that recent high Otherwise elsewhere oil was a little bit bullish this morning As I was discussing in the briefing Well, look these level these technical levels if you watch the briefing these morning These are the exact levels I had on in the briefing you can see the market's responsiveness to that ellipse We had marked up in a discussion from this morning and the market absolutely reacting to that So yeah, nice technical spot that I thought thought was quite obvious that the market would pivot and from a technical perspective You know if you put on a fib retracement from the last Friday high for example, if I just add that on now So what I was looking at in combination with the $70 handle With the previous points of support and the breakdown of price then go from last Friday's high to the weekly low You can see that 3825 retracement also came in so three good technical signals that led in the briefing to the belief that You know on the bullish nature of the price running up that that would be a good point of exit for any of those guys They were in the long this morning. So yeah, nice to see that play out as per the kind of expectation and plan Otherwise yet FX markets Obviously just to wait for the jobs report ready to dictate proceedings for the dollar to really see how these pairs finish off the week The Dixie is up a little bit So we'll talk about this in a moment the pre-positioning is going to be key to determine the type of price reaction We might see because the dollar generally is a little bit firmer and as to a yields And and as we know this does come on the back of the coattails of some hawkish comments out of Corridor Really excellent services PMI number that we had bounced back in the employment constituents. So Yeah, somewhat of a belief perhaps then that this number is going to be tilted to the upside and so anything less than that Perhaps then things like the dollar And t-notes have got room to see a bit of a bounce from that directional play that's materialized over the last 24 hours or so All right, well, let's let's talk a little bit about the actual report first and Gonna switch over my screens so This is what I was looking at and I'm gonna talk over this from a relative top level Just to make sure everyone's on the same point and then I'll drill down and talk about some of these individual data points is more There's more depth. So going into any jobs report It's always important to kind of do two things really for one look at the economic data that precedes every payroll report So typically in the week run up then to the Friday labor report We get things like ADP on the Wednesday private payrolls. We get our weekly jobless claims and update on the four-week average We get our ISM PMIs manufacturing services and employment component We get things like challenge job cuts Consumers confidence all these different types of things now. These are all effectively inputs to help us understand Then potentially what the employment Conditions were like and therefore what the general payroll report might look like And so that helps the market start to kind of pre-position itself as was just discussed with the lights of services PMI being so strong It it moves then the needle of what we're expecting for today's release as I said The kind of recent dollar yield movement somewhat suggestive if perhaps then the likelihood of a slight upside figure The other thing then is having a look at The actual detail of these reports. So let's have a look at the previous string of payroll numbers So the headline today is expected at 870 and it's not that too dissimilar then from what we had last time Which was 850 and we've been on a bit of pretty progressive trend of incremental improvements in the labor market and obviously this is one of the main of two conditions that the most The Fed are looking at to constitute the commencement of normalizing policy The first step towards that being a more detailed discussion on tapering Which is the reduction or the volume of the hundred and twenty billion dollars worth of bonds that they buy each month Now the Hawks we've heard from plenty of them this week You know your likes of Waller Kaplan Bullard so forth and they're looking at the idea about the stickiness elevated nature of inflation in Combination with the fact that despite COVID The economy is moving in the right direction as things like the ISM Services PMI would suggest and the ever-increasing employment situation Reopening further vaccinations people going back to employment Leisure and hospitality reopening probably the biggest added benefactor of that So this is what payrolls has been looking like but one of the biggest weighted precursors of payrolls is ADP Now a lot of people in markets criticize ADP because technically speaking ADP is private payrolls It's a nationwide report and therefore people put quite a lot of weight behind it of it being Indicative if generally then what the survey period that will constitute then the government's payroll might look like But the correlation is not fixed certainly and it's not it's not always accurate And there often is a bit of a disparity and you can actually see that here So now for ADP forget this last number here for the moment You can see we've had a bit of a seesaw pattern. So April was six to two We topped in May and reverted back down to a similar number in April in June Now if we go back to the payroll numbers, this has been the opposite So whereas ADP has gone up and down the last Report was a big disconnect because ADP was kind of 680 and We were getting up at 850 and so instead of following that general trend that we'd seen before it undershot two months ago Overshot undershot then the last one. So yeah ADP as we can see here came in at 330 on Wednesday It was well below expectations That's probably the one singular negative that really stands out that could well lead some to believe that look a better off Waiting to see this number come out and just going gun-ho thinking that this is just going to be ultimately a strong report And we'll talk about some of the nuances of the report that definitely going to be important to look at in the detail of the actual release So here are the PMIs. This is the PMI for manufacturing I came out early in the week. You can see pretty steady well on above 50 and expansionary territory, of course and One of the key subcomponents that of being employment rebounded importantly from very minor Contraction territory to 52.9. That's a pretty decent swing and it certainly would be more positive and So panelists and companies in their supply chains continue to struggle to respond to strong demand Though due to difficulties in hiring and retaining the labor market, but comments indicate slight improvements in labor As well as supply deliveries to offset some of these continued problems in the transportation sector The other thing then on the service side This was that knockout the park figure that we saw that really initiated quite a lot of market movement early in the week certainly has held a lot of that move in regard to dollar and yields and on that side the employment returned to growth and in fact On the services side and it swung back quite quite sharply in fact So these would be catalysts to suggest positive ADP negative However, as per my briefing this morning There's kind of two other elements that I think are very important from a fundamental perspective Before we talk about the different products and how much they might react and from a fundamental perspective We could well see a robust report on a technical Basis today and that technical basis is about the shifts in seasonal employment at schools caused by the pandemic but also as well, there's a particular Point about auto manufacturing procedures and about this normal seasonal period of retooling shutdowns So if you think about something like the oil industry for example There's very much a seasonal patterned where they have this Operational downtime for maintenance and so forth the same with auto manufacturing plants However, as I'll touch upon in a moment these factors might well have a one-time added benefit for today's report Which might mean then that we get a strong number But perhaps it's strong based on reasons that are not sustainable Kind of like the same logic that you have with transitory where okay inflation is hot But we know it's not gonna last forever Disemployment reports great, but it's driven by factors that aren't reflective of the underlying Employment conditions which might mean then after a knee-jerk reaction of positivity It could get faded quite quickly if it becomes evident that a lot of the report is being lifted for these particular Technical reasons. So what is this technical reasons? So the Labor Department today What we're looking at is prior to the COVID-19 pandemic is education employment Normally declines by about one million jobs in July and that says schools closed While temporary plant shutdowns for summer retooling weighed on automobile payrolls So that was during the pandemic But this year many students are doing summer school So as you can imagine a lot of you know, it's been very disruptive in terms of the education sector So summer schools kind of more in action than ever And that meaning then that they're catching up because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus Separately chip shortages have forced automakers to make changes to their normal production schedules So this could have an impact on the timing of that temporary retooling shutdown Which could throw off the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the payrolls data Analysts have also noted that seasonal factors are also expected to boost artificially because of that leisure and hospitality jobs as well So for me, there's going to be quite a bit of noise Around the quality of the underlying employment situation So what I'd be very mindful of when this comes out is a very strong number I will look at the underlying report and I will run through that with you And what we'll be looking for is beyond any knee-jerk spike that we might see on a positive outcome How sustainable those moves might be will largely be dictated from where is the underlying growth coming from So to put this another way This payroll report to me is very much like trading the CPI releases. We've had of late How much of the CPI is dependent on idiosyncratic Pandemic related reasons which are temporary and how much of it is underlying Kind of looking at this jobs report in a similar type of way because of these one-time technical factors The other big talking point, of course is A lot of division it seems on the surface between Fed officials Talking about, you know, the hawks we need to taper sooner rather than later But then Mary Daly, Neil Kashkari, the Doves kind of saying the opposite better to be patient There's a lot of uncertainties around the economic recovery, covid, so on You know, we saw this morning, right? You saw the covid numbers in the US. They're at a six month high The seven day average of new reported cases of covid in America at nearly 95,000 Is a five-fold increase In less than a month So it's definitely heading covid in the wrong direction Because of our lack of vaccinated people in certain geographic regions in certain states in America Who've been very reluctant to take up the vaccine which is contributing to the spread of the virus and subsequent hospitalizations So there's reasons for debate at the Fed at this point And this is key though for how the market's going to react today How the market might well react to this report in the immediate sense is what does this mean for tapering? So someone like Waller, I think was a very good example. I think it was Tuesday night when he spoke and he said We could do tapering in October And that's incredibly hawkish On its own because the general timeline was they were going to do most banks consensus the commencement of actual physical qe Or tapering of qe in q1 I'd say the needle's kind of shifted now into the back end of this year in december But october is super early And so he said though that that view would be conditional on two strong consecutive payroll reports The first being this one today And the one to come next before then the october period arrives so a lot of people will look at this then as to kind of almost binary way of a super strong report the hawks are Validated supported in their view and therefore given that the vice chair Obviously you've closely aligned with pal has already made some hawkish signals about rate rises And so forth earlier this week pal's not far off following suit The opposite side here though is what if we get an adp downside shock? and think about it if these technical factors are right And this number today is elevated for technical reasons well, then if the numbers bad And that's including those technical factors. Well, this number's not bad. It's terrible And at that point that puts to bed any discussion about october tapering and pal is right to wait at this point And under that scenario given the fact that the dollar has rallied for the last 24 hours as to his yields I'd probably be expecting then a strong reversal of that move If that were to happen if the dollar came under pressure Your major pairs your dollar cable will catch an aggressive bid um Gold will likely break through its relative double top that has been trading in the last 12 hours or so in the futures market and Let me just readjust my chart here So you've got this kind of level here in gold that's held price action so far so some pretty obvious upside targets under a more Negative outcome payrolls which puts a bit of an ejection of pace in Okay, squawk on Seven So just in case you missed that 943,000 on the headline that's 943,000 on the headline The unemployment rate was 5.4% so I'll turn the squawk off because I'm not sure how clear that came out for you guys So 943,000 on the headline the unemployment rate 5.4% well below expectations So you got a headline beat an unemployment much lower So both those are kind of uniform pointing in the same positive directions So you've got the headline beat but well within the range top end of the range remember was 1.6 million This has come in just to touch above expectations the unemployment rate though is a significant drop It's gone from 5.9 to 5.4 percent, which is well below the anticipated decrease of 5.7 You've also got average hourly earnings 0.4 percent 0.1 high unexpected month a month the year on year 0.2 percent higher at 4 percent The participation rate is 61.7 against 61.6 So just having a look at these charts and how they're trading So on the surface of it a strong report because uniform in regards to the headlines The average inflation the average hourly earnings everything's pointing in that more initial positive way Contributing then to a dollar spike So gold going on the inverse to what we were just discussing a quick flash to the downside Elsewhere equities. This is um, what we tend to see is equities react in a positive fashion initially What will be interesting now though is does this constitute enough for people to get concerned about the timing on tapering for me I don't really think this alters just on the surface of these numbers a particularly meaningful contribution to speeding up tapering I mean the report on those numbers the headlines 943 that's not amazing It's better than expected, but it's not spectacular And so I can't see how that on alone would really shift the timing for what someone like pal would think the two-month net revision was positive 119 000 So just having a look here s and p is just Reacting in the fact that again, it's a beat but well within that range So it's not shockingly strong. It's just good And so it's moved in a positive fashion fresh all-time highs there Elsewhere let's have a quick look in the currency market Very choppy the dollar initially spiking as reversed course And actually euro after blipping lower has just come back to where it was trading And you've got a very similar uniform moving cable because again to be clear There's nothing to do with euro and sterling. This is all dollar related volatility that's coming in So I'm going to put the squawk on and let's see on the underlying report a bit more information Just as he just begins to settle on this report keeping on dynamics within us equity space So even the s and p future printed a record high But just in a bit of a divergence between the more rate sensitive nasdaq and the russell nasdaq down two tenths of a percent even your asshole up seven tenths Yeah, with me guys. I'm just going to get a few more charts up and then I'm going to run you through a few things that are worth having a look at So All right, so let's just let's just have a look at you know way from the market reaction for a moment Let's just figure out. Yeah, how does this report actually work in reality? So if you just go on the bls the bureau of labor statistics Website you can type in bls. It will be there. It's on the front home page now the latest release And what's always a really healthy thing to do, you know, if you're a student looking at this trying to figure out How does this stuff work? It's looking at the breakdown. So very much so like you would do in the case of If you were looking at cpi and you wanted to know really what were the transitory kind of factors with it So here I've just typed in school for a keyword fine And they've said there were fewer layoffs at the end of the school year Resulting in job gains after seasonal adjustment These variations make it more challenging to discern the current employment trends in these educational industries Since february 2020 employment is down 205,000 working governments Education so on and so forth. So again, they are making note then about this staffing fluctuation in education Due to the pandemic might have distorted normal seasonal build-up and layoff patterns likely contributing to the job gain in july So again, if you look at the reaction function here as we were talking The knee jerk reaction is the kind of algo led Yep, a really deep drop in unemployment headline beat the dollar pops But then the dollar reverses because as we were discussing How much of that number was lifted by these technical reasons So when you start to extrapolate out the things like schooling well, this number doesn't look quite so solid now And hence the reason why you get a bit of reversal There's a lack of commitment to the follow-through moves that you see on the initial kind of fast money reaction I guess the other key area here to look at is the autos There's anything there that I can see I'm going to have a skim now So I'm just having a quick read Okay, let's just go back to the charts and have a quick look then so at the moment Gold's holding that move. So let's have another look at gold and what we got here It's holding that move down Still remaining a little heavy the dollar has completely reversed and the dollar is actually exactly that i'm talking about the Dixie Dollar index back to exactly where it started Gold though still has a bit of weight. I mean just having a look here technically I've got this chart marked up from some previous This is probably the previous live session that we did right so here was payrolls previously Here and this is payrolls now. So if I just add on the text here so you can see it It is nfp today So we're just breaking through i'm looking at a daily Chart here a very key area for gold You can see this has been a multi weak level of support for price So this would be really important for for gold to see on the daily close for sure today If we close beneath here, this could be bearish for price action in regard to the area of 17 91 down to around really the low that doesn't really start to come in until we get to around the 17 55 60 area down below so At the moment just quite key to see that you know around those areas on the daily chart kind of 17 90 I'll show you on a much more shorter time frame. So around this s1 is kind of kind of quite key here fx markets as I said have reversed The s&p's come back a bit the nasdaq if anything is the one that hasn't bought into that as quite nicely because remember the tech stocks tend to benefit Through the kind of more lower longer So delayment of tapering type of situation Because of the fact that they tend to then see rotation out of Kind of more growth and into value under the notion of raising rates in time and normalization So the nasdaq's not liking it too much, but To be honest, it's a fairly small move. I mean we've we've popped down to the s1 But technically speaking I think you've got a pretty decent area of support down here as well If we do trade even further down 15073 but in all honesty, I think that this number This number for me right now Before we get to really digest it further just says that the fed aren't pal's not going to change his mind not yet This isn't strong enough For the hawks to say we told you so When are you joining the club? I think pal's got enough reason looking at the underlying and the figures on the top to say It's not good enough yet. We need to wait for more information. Don't forget as well Jackson holes happening at the end of the month And Jackson hole is key because Jackson hole is what the market's been tabling penciling in for some time And that's what they're looking for for the timing around more detail And I think that's still that timeline remains intact from what we've seen today Perhaps a further advancement in those discussions They see one more payroll and then we have the september scp the projections from the fed And then we get more formalization of what that looks like for commencement of tapering in december That's my my view on on the timeline at the moment Okay, all right In the chat on youtube, how's everyone doing? Any questions at all? Yeah, so sorry. We haven't had bigger moves I just report the news. I don't Unfortunately, I don't create it Sam north. I just saw sam north in the chat The famous podcast extraordinaire If you haven't listened to sam north's podcast Check it out. It's definitely worth a listen really great episode that they he and his team did at e-toro Just the other day Sam, what's the name of your podcast? I can't remember now If you want to if you want to put it in the chat Also as well, don't forget to check out The amplified podcast that of course is coming out peers and I the head of trading. We're having a chat later on Tonight, which we'll put out then tomorrow's the latest podcast episode And we'll talk about this payroll. So it's about a bit of time to chew it over and And we'll talk about the week as a whole. There's been plenty of stuff to talk about Can talk about it's all good in the hood the robin hood So quite happy to talk about that as well on the pod And for you guys actually how many of you listen to the podcast if you're tuned in at the moment Does anyone listen to the podcast? If you're good to get some feedback Let us know what you'd like us to discuss. It's still open So if anyone wants me and peers to talk about anything specific in the podcast this evening Just get your Get your suggestions in All right, let's go back to the charts Another look at gold here. So gold now just seeing more definitive break So you see that on the daily chart. What a key area this is for gold And now we're breaking down through that. There's plenty of clear air here for gold Now one thing I would look at as a first target is as we run lower here I'd look to book some if you're in that short on the initial break of those lows at around the 17 74 and a half level if I just remove this here for a minute You can see then that was a key area here of resistance and support Via the price action of late june early july So your first target would be here There's a secondary target to run further on some momentum lower down So the dollar just picking up a little bit of pace now So after flatlining starting to see a bit of a secondary push now in the green back And that's weighing on euro dollar. So let's have a look euro dollar another push on the downside will change the time frame to 60 minute You've got these previous lows That would be probably your next targets down at these types of levels. So coming in around 1782. I'm looking at the euro future here at the moment Cable showing some resolve for the time being It's not really budging. So I definitely wouldn't really look at cable You're getting a much more clearer expression of the move in euro at the moment Gold still heavy fresh lows again for gold So, yeah, I think gold you've got a bit of room here 74 That would be my target on that daily look Bringing it down on the time frame So if you start to see when you start to see this type of movement in gold It's a very volatile product you get the wave of offers come in and you know if you have A direct market access and you can see the order flow coming in You can almost feel the pulse pulses of the market Flow coming in and you might get a quick shot at trying to exit At around those exact lows But could be quite fleeting as a lot of people will be looking at the same technical points to be able to exit that trade So Yeah, a bit of a further extension there in gold on that latest move tea notes Yeah, you can see that area that we were looking at so those Previous supportive points from the second half of last week Or through last week in fact and that s1 did initially break down through there We're still holding at that level sat on the s2 at the minute Pretty contained overall though for that move, but I think that's in large A reflection of this readjustment of yields that we've seen since clarita ism on wednesday So as I was saying the market had already readjusted for a potential upside figure For those reasons so the actual payoff then of a better report here is fairly marginal at the margin Okay, let's have a look at any of the questions you guys have got on youtube Have I got any open dollar positions me no the guys who are trading Yes, so, you know for these types of events, you know, I have to be fully locked in and engaged watching quite a few different things and There's no time for me. I'll let the traders do their thing and hopefully Working collaboratively we can we can max out Me seeing things interpreting things and then executing things is how how the team operates Ikky wants the topic I would suggest our big banks always manipulating the market We might have to run that by our institutional clients to amplify before we have that discussion, so I'm probably gonna have to duck that one for those reasons Let's have a look. Yeah dollar CAD sure can have a look at dollar CAD I mean there was CAD data, of course it came out the CAD employment change was 94 000 below the expected 177.5 um, so on that basis you had a Lower than expected employment number, but a better than expected us one Well, let's see who won out in the battle of dollar CAD So yeah a little bit of upside movement being seen So As you would imagine then dollar appreciation CAD weakness on the back of the data This is a bit more of an easier Divergence where one country data is Clearly worse one is better and you get a bit more of a uniformity to the actual reaction which is positive so here now as dollar CAD starts to The edge a little higher Just using these previous reference points really to see that the the trade would probably In terms of your execution of it if you were in long You'd be looking at these points here and then you've got obviously the r1 Which coincides with around these tops that we were seeing here overnight in last night's session So these would be the areas where you'd be looking to take some of the trade And come out of it as it develops the ultimate one at the top here with these previous highs Is also the r1 on the daily pivots in the futures So, you know in these fast money moves. It's very usually much more prudent to be quite agile Be flexible to book the trades as it develops rather than just sit there thinking right Yeah, I'm just gonna gonna sit ride it out for a big ambitious target in a day trading environment Because as you've seen with the whipsaw reactions in the euro It's spiked It spiked down came all the way back and now it's pushed down So you've got to be looking to to be quite proactive in the management of the trade During these high volatility periods NASDAQ just having a bite at the lows gold session lows getting close to that technical support we were eyeing So NASDAQ future now down to its s1 Bit of room here. I'd say for the NASDAQ until we really get down There you go another bit of weight coming into the NASDAQ there You see that just through the s1 little leg lower. So yeah, there you go NASDAQ again another hit on the downside So you can feel almost like the pulse I mean if I if I try and bring a ladder up for one second I don't know if I can jump it out here out of window so E and Q So I've got the the NASDAQ ladder up on my screen now and what you can see is just the speed of which the ladder is moving And as it does Just to type a momentum that you see so yeah, go another another push It tends to be quite in a kind of wave pattern almost and so here I'd fully expect this NASDAQ to come down to have a little look at these lows now Down at that level of support that we had eyed it might not get there You'll get a lot of the fast money people just looking to hit this market short and try to make some A few ticks just trying to ride it down And then people will start to bail and you'll have some good support around here at least the initial test I would suggest So just keeping a close on that NASDAQ at the minute Yeah, euro dollar Let's just quickly bring that into screen So euro dollar on those lows. So that was that level we had marked up on the 60 minute So remember just going back on the chart to here This is what we were just looking at A moment ago. So that's a good level as well I would say in this initial aftermath to at least take some of that trade off a few are short to manage it Because that's sure that's a decent target for any shorts that were initiated NASDAQ just having a bit of a let up now in some of that speed of movement As to his gold gold on those technical levels You can see starting to see a bit of a flaw come in. So now with that NASDAQ move That NASDAQ Conviction starts to become less because now in other Asset classes just starting to see a bit of a flaw to price To have a higher greater conviction that NASDAQ is going to still come lower I'd want to see gold also pushing lower Now the euro move is playing in tune with that. So the moment dollar strength is still prevailing So it's interested to see how gold Starts to react to that But the one point is you've got an area support here for the euro You've had a bit of a turn here in gold and these would be anti then the belief that the NASDAQ is going to trade heavy still So this is just looking at the subsequent momentum and price pattern in other instruments to dictate then The overall con across asset moves to the timing of the product that you're trading So that type of thing takes a bit of time to really get your head around if you're new to looking at that type of stuff But obviously is is definitely very very beneficial once you can master it Yeah, s&p back to scratch pretty much Where it was And t-notes just dying down a bit. So that gold You know seeing a decent turn now Yeah, and as that gold was turning euro to the Within that zone of that area we're looking at finding a flaw and starting to see a bit of a bounce back up Yeah, so it's almost like gold was the pre Indicator then of that move getting a bit exhausted On the shorts euro dollar NASDAQ and gold You want to see the synchronized progression of those moves across those assets To think then that there's sustainability to the downside and when that gold flipped The conviction rate decreased and then you're seeing the technical support levels also play out as well Yeah, that bill out saying, you know, why was adp so wrong? Yeah, this is why as I was saying in the the rundown, this is why people's People's confidence in adp to be an accurate precursor is You know, he gets almost like it's almost like a joke in a way to those in markets when people say that because Technically it is probably from a data set over the long run It probably is correlated, but in the short term it sees large fluctuations I think as well you're seeing much greater degree of misses consensus during a Pandemic recovery period Because a lot of these data measurements are just harder to nail down and hence the reason why analysts forecasts can be quite off the mark in the context of the current economic climate at the moment Someone's saying can we short the DAX? Let's have a look at the DAX I mean, can you short the DAX you can you can do whatever you want? Yeah, yeah Would you want to short the DAX here? You can see, you know, the DAX isn't really the instrument I would be looking at in the aftermath of such an event and so Yeah, there's a bit of whipsaw price action. It hasn't really done anything You know, this is a us centric data release The DAX would move if the subsequent movement in us indices was heavy i.e. all three indices, DAO, NASDAQ and the S&P all started to come into pressure You would see a big set off But here at the moment, you're seeing divergence. You've got The DAO here in the left the DAO has rallied the NASDAQ has sold off It's that classic kind of rotation that you tend to see on US Wall Street closes each day You know when people freak out about covid the tech outperform The industrials underperform in this case the employment situation is picking up and therefore constitutes More healthier economic recovery. So the industrials perform better those tied to the developments of the economic activity Whereas the tech firms growth firms start to pull back But all of these moves are fairly moderate So I wouldn't overanalyze that albeit that that is the technical explanation of the divergence between the DAO's gains and NASDAQ's losses if that makes sense Sean good question Can we talk about the difference between trading in London, New York and Asian sessions? How you gauge sentiment or changes in sentiment? Yeah, I actually deliver a lecture about that exact thing So, you know, one of the things is Amplify, you know, we've got some really exciting news that we're going to let everyone know In the coming weeks But the end result being is that there's quite a few things that we are going to be putting on the channel that we've never done before Which is you know when so when there's questions like you're Sean Rather than it all being under lock and key Hopefully that's the sort of stuff that I can just do a video on and we can put out there and and and obviously you can Leave questions and things like that on the comments and I can answer So, yeah, it's going to be happening in a few few weeks time Um, just while we're here While we're online a couple of things just to say and that is Yeah, the podcast I've talked about You recognize someone So if you just go on apple podcasts This is basically an end of week wrap where I talked to the head of trading peers We had a really great chat last week. Um, you don't know if many of you managed to catch it just yet, but peers had a really good Angle about why he thinks And the future of china Is not so assured that it will become this dominating global number one superpower Um, and we touched on all the tech earnings, which is obviously a main focal point of last week So check that out. It's on apple Or on spotify If you just subscribe follow so forth, you're getting alert. We're going to put an episode out over the weekend Feel free to follow me on twitter So I put out a morning call every morning very early prior to 7 a.m in the morning Um, you know, just like with payrolls just now this stuff that I tweet So I was just tweeting about the the staff fluctuations and education and payrolls, but you know, I put out graphics Stuff like that on a daily basis that you might find useful So feel feel free to check that out Uh, feel free to as well, you know fire me any questions things like that on twitter Um, I'll share my handle Happy to help If I can All right, any other questions guys while we are here Feel free to let me know Otherwise, I'm going to look to wrap the session shortly Um, anyone from team amplify have any questions at all? Okay, let's have a look what we got Um, okay. Hi aunt Does amplify offer macro theme context? Yeah, I mean the plan of action is going to be I mean a few weeks time eddy eddy dunmeds. Who's my colleague? Eddie covers a different part of the market to me. So He's very much much more focused on Kind of single stock commentary and we're going to be putting out quite a bit more on that side um In the next month or so going forward And we're also going to be talking a little bit more about Kind of m&a Deals and things of that nature, but I'm the one who would do as well as peers the global macro kind of overlay So, yeah, margaret for sure. If you just subscribe to the channel, there's plenty of content I do a morning briefing that goes out early in the morning european open That basically is aggregating all the major news talking about the themes and the outlook for the day ahead So feel free to always drop me any comments on those videos if I can help in any way on any macro questions Um Sam north is asking me one question Who is the greatest greatest of all time male tennis work in the tennis world? Well My analyst answer would be novak jokovic will soon be the greatest player of all time When he wins way more grand slams than federa nadal, but who is the greatest? I'm afraid sam. It's still roger federa um Okay Yeah, any insight into net gas. I'm afraid um tacky shard. I don't I don't really cover net gas And so it's not something I look at so I'm gonna Avoid any commentary about a product that I don't really know a great deal about what I mean, I can look at it from a technical perspective, but the fundamentals. I don't really follow day to day And the types of assets that I look at I look at most kind of g10 currencies Um the major us european uk indices Uh major fixed income 10 year futures. So guilds buns t-notes wti copper crude these are the types of products that I I typically look at Okay, quick look back at the charts just to wrap up Yeah, keep an eye on gold Gold is now testing that key area that we were looking at so on those daily charts. That was that midpoint 17 74 There you go gold four dollars drop straight line Just went on the on the daily through that area and so yeah a bit of room here for gold perhaps to just stretch It's legs a little now and make its way down A little bit more heavy towards potentially You know technically there's a bit of room here You've got that previous load that was printed on the 1st of july that would come in at around 17 66 On the gold futures on the daily. So yeah, just keep an eye on gold At this moment in time It's quite a key Area of support that if it breaks Could trade a little bit more heavy quite quickly So yeah, any breakthrough of this this kind of support area 73 74s I'd be expecting the price to come down another three or four bucks If that materializes Yeah, the currencies though found a bit of a flaw for the moment. So the appetite for gold to break that level It could happen, but it looks less or likely right now And my rationale for saying that is that the dollar bid has dissipated Euro has found a bit of a flaw. So I'm kind of watching the dollar for cues here But look just as I'm speaking the dollars come back up again So euro is just a little bit of an edge lower there in the euro So I would keep an eye on gold now because the dollar's just flicked back up to session highs again And that will help keep a bit of Pressure in that inverse relationship on the price of gold And if we break through here gold could then trade quite quickly a little bit lower Given how the product tends to react So I'm going to switch over my ladder So you can see The kind of pace on the ladder as we go through So this is gce the gold future Let's keep it up here just as we're on these levels now And and as just watching it you're just watching the The size of orders on the offer you can see they're stacking up You can see it's flirting with those lows now You got 20 21 73 and a half Here so still trading a little lower session lows again now in gold Yeah, dollar fresh highs now So let's see let's see if gold now can make a bit of headway again on the downside now with another round of some dollar bids coming in Yeah, just saw a big buy order come in there Yeah, another big one. Yeah, quite a few buyers coming in there lifting it at around that same technical area of 73 So you can see that and that price just flicking back up There was a couple of orders that came in at 38 40 plus size 55 buyer there 74 and a half. So yeah pretty decent bounce there So it seems like there's some good protection just looking to protect that downside Yes, a decent buying interest just coming in off the low All right guys, I'm going to wrap it up there for the live stream unless peers Safe alex Who are managing some of the other groups? Let me know If that's appropriate. Otherwise, I'm happy to keep going if necessary Guys, let me know All right, cool. I'll wrap it up there As I said earlier, feel free to connect with me on linked it on Twitter if there's any questions at all Just drop me a dm or just tweet me openly if there's any questions. Happy to help in my twitter You'll find the link to the podcast as well Really appreciate if you check that out You know peers and I have been doing it for a couple of months now. I've got some good traction and hopefully You'll find it interesting and useful. But thanks very much if you joined us live Appreciate it. I hope it was useful And yeah, I'll see you for plenty more live sessions in the future So if you're watching on youtube, don't forget to subscribe if you're new to the channel I really appreciate it and have a fantastic weekend All right, take care everyone. Thanks for tuning in Yeah, kevin fabio boris antonio Thanks very much guys. Have a great weekend