 There is no doubt that tensions are high in the world right now. Russia and Ukraine have been a war for the better part of the past two years, while Israel has been fighting against the Hamas-led Gaza Strip for the past three months in one of the most intense and controversial conflicts of the 21st century. The Israel-Hamas war has led to an escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with the Houthi movement now being actively in conflict with the United States and the United Kingdom. Additionally, there are growing concerns of an invasion of Taiwan by China, which would likely drag in the U.S. allied countries in the Far East, along with the U.S. itself. With all this potential for conflict, there is serious concern about there being a third world war, with two distinct factions fighting on nearly every continent. But how realistic is this concern? Will all the world's major powers be pitted against each other in the biggest conflict of the 21st century? Let's see. Welcome to today's episode of Max World Politics Report. These conflicts are all serious in their own right, and I'm going to take a deep dive into each of them in this series of videos, including a couple of others with the potential to cause global havoc. We'll go in chronological order, so let's start with the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Euromite on Revolution in 2013 would set into motion the events in Ukraine that would take place over the next decade. This revolution ultimately removed the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in what is described by some as a pro-European coup, while others, namely those who saw Yanukovych as a dictator, viewed as popular revolution and a turn towards democracy. Yanukovych fled to Russia after his ousting in February 2014, and subsequently, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. Widespread protests in the ethnically Russian portions of Eastern Ukraine eventually turned into full-scale revolts, leading to the war in the Donbas, which saw the creation of the proto-states of Donetsk and Luhansk. Low-scale conflicts persisted throughout much of the late 2010s and early 2020s, and although tensions were high, relative stability remained in the core regions of Ukraine and Russia. During 2021, parts of the contemporary global order began to fray, most notably with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. During the same timeframe, Russian troops began to build near the Ukrainian border, and speculations of an impending military operation circulated, almost exactly eight years after its initial invasion of Crimea. On February 24, 2022, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with its claimed intent of demilitarizing and denazifying the country and supporting the Russian minorities, which they claimed were being oppressed. Realistically, the invasion had many causes, including Russia's fragile frontier with strengthening Western influence in Ukraine and other areas along its border, coupled with demographic pressures plaguing the country, namely its low birth rate, which would preclude its ability for an expansion in the near future. The fragility of the global order proved in Russia's view that 2022 was an optimal time to strike. Other reasons for the invasion included the prevailing view among many in Russia that the East Slavs were, in reality, one nation divided through history and that Ukraine was being pushed away from this unity by the Western world. Ukrainians today see themselves as very distinct people from the Russians, a claim with validity considering that during the two nations' formative years they were influenced by very distinct institutions. Ukrainian or Ruthenian identity formed during the centuries of Polish rule, while Muscovite Russians remained under the yoke of the Mongol Empire and later their own independent state. Russia's invasion consisted of a front in the south made possible through their control of Crimea, an eastern front spearheaded by the presence in Donetsk and Luhansk, and a northern front, aided by Belarus, aimed at capturing the capital Kiev within a short time frame. Many including myself expected the war to last mere weeks as Russia had the clear tactical and geographic advantage. It came as a shock that in just six weeks into the war, Russia retreated from its advances in and around Kiev, with Ukraine regaining control of its entire northern frontier by mid-April. Simultaneously, Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, was under attack, but that front too turned in Ukraine's favor by May. Russian victories during this time frame were mostly concentrated in the south and east, with the early capture of Kherson at the mouth of the Danipa River and the Siege of Mariupol, ending in Russian victory in May. Since then, the only major advances by either country included Ukrainian advances in the northeast near Kharkiv in September, and the recapture of Kherson in November. Since then, any advances made by either side have been incredibly small, with most fighting stuck in urban gridlock. Both sides still suffer heavy casualties, yet the frontlines have been an effective standstill for over a year. Political and social effects have been drastic. The refugee crisis has seen more than 6 million Ukrainians leave the country, with most resettling throughout the countries of the European Union, with more than a quarter of the country's children departing. Around 8 million have been internally displaced. Many have returned to Ukraine, but the exact figures are up for speculation. The European Union, and especially NATO, were reliable supporters of the Ukrainian war effort, supplying both military and humanitarian aid, along with taking the lion's share of the country's refugees. The war has also heightened worries of a potential wider war, pushing traditionally neutral countries like Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO, with the former initiating in April 2023, while the latter still awaits approval from member state Hungary after waiting more than a year to receive approval from Turkey. The reluctance of these countries to accept Sweden into the alliance shows how unity among Western-aligned nations began to weaken throughout the Russo-Ukrainian war. Turkey, a traditionally Western-allied country, has seen worsening relations with Europe and the United States, and has started to pursue an independent foreign policy, and can now be described as weakly Western-aligned. Hungary has had a standoff with its European allies due to its perceived pro-Russian stances, and has used its leverage to slow down Sweden's accession into NATO. Some European countries like Slovakia and the Netherlands have elected governments in the past year that are far less supportive of the war effort in Ukraine. Even Poland, one of Ukraine's staunchest allies in the biggest recipient of refugees, has stopped sending weapons to Ukraine over a trade dispute. Russia in continuing the war has also declined among the general population in Western countries, with particular concern in the United States directed at how much money the government has funneled into the war effort. On the Russian side, there has been an element of dissent against the war, with hundreds of thousands leaving the country in 2022 in fear of being drafted, with most fleeing to Central Asia. In the middle of the war in June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, staged a revolt against the Russian government, almost making it to Moscow only to be shut down the same day. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Progozhin died in a plane crash that August under mysterious circumstances. During the war, Russia also announced the annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, though Russia only partially controls these areas, including only two of the administrative capitals, Donetsk and Luhansk. Despite the stalemate, rocket exchange has continued between the two countries. Ukrainian areas formerly on the front lines have been littered with landmines and other war traps, making these areas continually dangerous. This war is often viewed as a potential flashpoint for World War 3, but does this assumption still hold up today? Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered at least 100,000 losses and countless hundreds of thousands of injuries over the past two years, majorly depleting both countries of the youth population they so desperately need to continue the war effort, let alone run their economies, all with very minor frontline changes for over a year and a half. Considering this fact and also that the Western world is losing interest in this conflict in favor of the current war in the Middle East, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has, in my opinion, exhausted its potential to catalyze global conflict. Russia is in no real position to start a wider conflict after being bogged down on the same front lines for two years, and if such a wider war were to initiate, morale would be so low that the operation would be tantamount to suicide. This can be seen through Russia's reluctance to get materially involved in the current Middle East conflicts as the country continues to struggle to keep its own neighborhood in line. I could see the Ukraine-Russia conflict continuing for another few years as a proxy conflict between the Western countries still willing to get involved, and Russia, though declining support in the West could lead to some eventual Russian victories. In terms of a wider global conflict, Russia cannot afford to get involved, and though it may offer its diplomatic support to anti-Western factions, its help won't go far beyond this. So, with one of the world's major military powers probably eliminated from the global conflict, we must look elsewhere to find which flashpoint could result in the unthinkable. In my next episode, I'll take a look at the current conflict in the Middle East, ranging from the Israel-Hamas war to the Red Sea conflict and beyond. With such fast developments in this region, it could very well be that flashpoint. Thank you for watching today's episode. If you like my work, please consider supporting me on Patreon to obtain access to exclusive maps from this video and others and future updates. Tell me in the comments what you'd like to see next, and I will see you then.