 Is Bitcoin about to crash? With Bitcoin up over 70% year-to-date, everyone has once again become bullish. However, everything isn't butterflies and rainbows as we currently face multiple obstacles in order to break above $30,000. In today's video, I show you three bullish scenarios and three bearish scenarios that we can see play out very soon. So grab a cup of coffee or maybe something stronger and let's dive right in. First, let's look over the quarter one close. As you guys can see quarter one quarter two quarter three quarter four since 2013 and you can see one two three four times it's had very very good quarters to start the year off. We ended up the quarter up 70% for the first quarter and it's the third best start to the year since 2013. While I was looking at this then I also started thinking anytime that it's had this type of start how has Bitcoin performed after that and and these are a couple things that I found. So 100% of the time that Bitcoin begins in the green it ends in the green overall for the year. Going back further in 2013 you can go back to like 2010 I think you can see charts from there. Since 2010 we've had a green start seven times six out of the seven times that Bitcoin's price ended the year even higher than the first quarter. So the only time that it did not end the year higher was actually recently in 2021. So in 2021 was the only year in Bitcoin's entire history where it didn't close the year higher than the first quarter. Every other time in its history we've closed higher than the first quarter. The yearly average return for Bitcoin has been 1408%. If we go all the way back to 2012 again I don't like to go back that far because if we look at those numbers those numbers are look at this 5000% 500% like those numbers are insane. I think at this point in time I only like to go back to 2017 for that type of historical data that includes you know the average return of something how far how much it went up. So if we just go back to 2017 then that average yearly return is 494% right. So that's a little bit more realistic on what we might be able to get in 2023. Not saying that we're going to go up 494% but just to give you an average one thing to note on all of these years two out of the four times right we got four years here from 2013 until now where the first quarter ended up green two times quarter two ended up red. In 2013 we had a red quarter wasn't much but in 2021 we had a 40% pullback there so that was a pretty big pullback and again it's also situational if we think back to what was going on in 2021 towards quarter two I think during that time was actually the China ban as well during that time Tesla pulled Bitcoin you can't buy Teslas anymore with Bitcoin so a lot of things were going on throughout that time but just to give you guys an idea you know without getting into too many details giving giving it an overview twice so it's 50% of the time we've retraced or we've pulled back or we've ended up in red in quarter two from the run up in quarter one so now I'm gonna first pull up the weekly chart here to look at where the resistance is currently and where the support is currently right off the bat we can see the resistance clearly right this is we're currently at a resistance zone here and if we go back in history we can see that this was clearly a support back here in May of last year we continue back we can see in 2021 again it was a support if we go back further to 2020 we can see again a support so what happens to support when it's broken it becomes a resistance and because it was such a strong support that means that it's also going to be a pretty strong resistance so we're gonna need more than just a little bit of hype in order to break through this we're gonna need some sort of some more momentum we're gonna need a catalyst to really get through this level once we get through this level though I think that we can run up possibly to this next level up here which is around that 37 38 000 area but for right now that's going to be a major resistance that we're going to be fighting here you can see we've been here for three weeks already as far as the supports go we have a support sitting around that 25 000 area of course 25 000 a big even number right psychological support level that's played as a resistance and support various times if you look back another support right here sitting around the 22 000 area this is a support that we're at previously earlier in February and then further back from that we have 20 000 another big psychological number it's a previous all-time high so of course it's gonna be a support there's a lot of buying and selling going on there plus it's close to a Fibonacci retracement level there so a lot of things going on there and one more thing that I wanted to show you guys at that 20 000 level we have a CME gap at 20 000 if you guys remember earlier this year in january we had the CME gap here and you know everybody was talking about whether or not it was going to get closed or not and it went on for one two three four five six seven weeks without it being closed on the eighth week though guess what happened that gap did get closed and then we had a run all the way back up to where we're currently at right now basically so we have another CME gap and it's sitting right around the same exact area as the last one which is right around 20 000 however we also have a CME gap to the upside you can make arguments on both of these right because there's a CME gap here at 36 000 and the interesting thing about this CME gap at 36 000 if again we pull up the chart here where's this next level at once we break above this resistance right here this is sitting basically at 36 000 right that's exactly where that CME gap is another thing that kind of gives that scenario some confluence if we pull up this head and shoulders pattern there's an inverse head and shoulders patterns i've been talking about this for the last week or two you can see the left shoulder you can see the head you can see the right shoulder and then the breakout right this is the breakout area right here so the way that you measure the target for a breakout is you measure the bottom of the head to the shoulders where the break is right so you can see that this shoulder is aligned with this shoulder so when we broke above that you can see that we got a big candle up if you measure from the bottom of the head to the break here that gives us our target which it happens to also be 36 000 now we have multiple different scenarios that are pointing at the same price point of 36 000 which is why i like to look at all these different things in the daily time frame because it's more immediate you can see our price action here and then this right here is the rsi this is basically momentum right so you can see as the price was going up here the momentum was also going up but what's happened is as the price has continued to go up momentum has dropped off this is a bearish divergence what usually happens in this scenario when when the price is going up the momentum is falling down that usually leads to a short-term pullback you know once we pair that up with we're sitting at a strong resistance that shows me that there is that possibility where we might see some sort of short-term pullback in the near future and that pullback could be you know back down to 25 000 which is a first support could possibly be back to 22 000 or it might be to 20 000 where that CME gap is there's no way to know exactly how far that pullback could be and there's again there's no way to know if that pullback will even happen but that's just what the charts are currently showing me right now we have a bearish divergence that usually means a pullback we're also at a big resistance that usually means a pullback those are the two different things that i'm looking at as far as from the different scenarios to end it on the bullish note on the weekly time frame we're seeing higher highs and higher lows for the first time since back in 2021 when we made our run to previous all-time highs and again this is a weekly time frame so this is on a longer time scale i think as as a year progresses and plays out we could continue to see these higher highs which could lead to our target of 36 000 which is the next main target here now as far as how i'm playing it this week i'm shorting right now i am short at resistance just go with what the price is saying if there's resistance there don't fight it i'm grabbing short positions here in the red then as price goes down i take a little bit of profit when when it goes back up into into resistance again open up short and i'm gonna keep doing this until we break 30 000 dollars because once we flip 30k i think um it's only a matter of time before we see 36 to 38 000 dollars with everything currently going on in the market a lot of things are going under the radar right now last week i covered one of the biggest events happening this year in august the litecoin halvin did you know that during litecoin's first halving event in 2015 it went over 37 000 and in 2019 during the second halving event it went over 1800 both times hitting new all-time highs history doesn't always repeat but it often does rhyme litecoin is currently up over 130 from the bottom with more room to go up so make sure to check out the in-depth analysis on how you can profit from the litecoin halving this year by watching this video don't forget to like and subscribe for more videos just like this