 If it feels like we have had this discussion before, it's because we have. The last time the NASCAR Cup Series was going to Atlanta, they were in the midst of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. And it was right after the NBA had canceled their season. It was when the NHL had at least put their seasons on hold. And NASCAR was like, hey, we're still gonna go. We're still gonna have this race without fans, et cetera, et cetera. So we had a podcast on it. We had a discussion around this race and this exact same format. And then it got canceled. So instead, they are going back to Atlanta this weekend to try things again, and hopefully the return trip goes better than the initial one. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That is right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down the folds of honor quick trip 500 down in Atlanta for the NASCAR Cup Series and let you know all the strategies you need to know for NASCAR DFS and my favorite drivers in each salary tier. Lock for this weekend is at 3 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday. Once again, there will be no qualifying. So you can fill out lineups as soon as qualifying order has been released. It has not been yet as of Thursday morning. So we'll not have the benefit of knowing where drivers are starting. But because the way Atlanta works doesn't really matter all that much right where they're starting. But the qualifying ranges of drivers will matter. We'll talk about that in just a bit. If you were listening to this podcast prior to Saturday night you can also check out our UFC 250 DFS podcast with myself and Austin Swame as Austin broke down his favorite fighters for UFC 250. That is coming up on Saturday. I believe Lock for that is at 4 p.m. So make sure you check out the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts next week to NASCAR podcast because there will be a race on Wednesday and then a race on Sunday. So a lot of stuff happening here in this feed. So make sure you are subscribed and golf is back next week. So Brandon Gadoul and I gonna have a discussion about that coming up on Monday right here at the same time. As mentioned though, UFC 250 is coming up on June 6th on Saturday and there is no better way to bet the fights than on Fandals Sportsbook. Right now new users can get an exclusive odds boost when you sign up. Just join Fandals Sportsbook and they will boost Amanda Nunez's odds to beat Felicia Spencer from minus 800 to plus 250. That means you can bet up to $20 on the favorite to win up to $50. To claim your exclusive odds boost just sign up for Fandals Sportsbook and deposit to see the odds. 21 plus and president in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Colorado first online wager only except in Colorado must wager in designated offer market $10 minimum first deposit acquired, $50 max bonus gambling problem called 1-800-GAMBLER in Indiana, call 1-800-9 with it and in West Virginia visit 1-800-GAMBLER.NET and finally in Colorado call 1-800-522-4700. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for Atlanta and the big thing about this track to know is the length of the race because it is a 500 mile race which is 325 laps which is tied for the second longest race at a one and a half mile track we will have all of this season. That gives us 32.5 Fandal points for lap sled and anytime we have a race that is this long we need to emphasize getting lap leaders into our lineups and for this race specifically that's going to mean targeting studs near the front of the pack because it's not anything to do with the heavy tire wear nature it has nothing to do with Atlanta hypothetically being tough to pass it's all about the way the starting order is set. They are setting the starting lineup the same way they did for Sunday's race in Bristol. The top 12 cars and owner points will start in the top 12 spots for the race. They will then draw to set the order of those 12. Then they will do the same for cars 13th or 24th and owner points. That means the 12 cars that have had the best performances so far this year will occupy the top 12 spots in the starting order and those are the drivers most likely to lead laps. If you look at my model entering this race each of the top eight drivers in my model will be drivers starting in the top eight or in the top 12 spots. The drivers starting in the top 12 are 12 of the top 14 drivers in my model so if you want elite drivers who can lead laps and for this race you do you need them to be starting at the front of the pack. To me I think the idea way to play this is to have two potential lap leaders at least in each lineup at least being a keyword there you need at least two lap leaders per lineup. There have been 13 races at one and a half mile tracks using the current rules package which went into place after the Atlanta race last year. There have been 28 drivers who have led at least 18.5% of the laps in those races which is equivalent to 60 laps led or six fan dual points on Sunday and 12 drivers have led the equivalent to 100 laps. So in all likelihood we're going to have two drivers on Sunday who lead a meaningful number of laps. If we can predict who that is and put them on our rosters we'll be in a really good spot for DFS. So from a studs perspective I want them to start at the front. I don't care too much if they're like first or eighth like that's not a huge difference to me that will change things a bit but you can run multiple grooves on this track you can make passes, there's tire wear they'll be comers and goers so the difference between starting first and starting sixth is not as big as it was last week. But overall I think the key here is I want two studs in each lineup kind of regardless of where they start as long as I'm at the top 12 I don't really care too much where they're starting but I do want two drivers who I think have the upside to lead laps less balance lineups and we would have other places. As far as the value plays go I want them to start a bit further back because the qualifying procedure is going to help with that as well. We're going to have cheap drivers who will be starting in the middle of the pack and with the way things are set up that's guaranteed. I can say that now I can guarantee you there'll be good driver starting in the middle of the pack. The sweet spot for the value plays so far this year in this package has seemed to be drivers starting right around the middle of the pack. There have been three races at a one and a half mile track so far this year all of which have used the same rules package. Those three races have produced eight drivers in perfect lineups who had salaries below $10,000. Seven of those eight drivers started 19th or lower. In Las Vegas another race where qualifying did not happen qualifying was rained out there so the field was set by points for drivers who were cheap made the perfect lineup. They all started 19th or lower. So you can make up ground in this qualifying package and you can make the perfect lineup and that's a really important thing to know. We're going to have some speedy value plays starting outside the top 20 and honestly there are even some drivers I don't dislike who are going to start between 25th and 36th. So we're going to have good place differential drivers at our disposal and more often than not we should be looking to take advantage because those are the kinds of value plays that tend to pay off on this track type. So from a roster construction perspective our default build should be two studs who can lead laps then three value plays who can get place differential. If you find a mid-range play who can also lead laps and we'll talk about a couple that's even better and there are enough laps for that to be viable here and potentially get a third lap leader in your roster. So that's the way I'm looking at things overall this weekend. To determine which drivers are capable of doing that whether it be leading laps or moving their way forward just look at recent races in Charlotte and Darlington because Atlanta is I guess kind of a blend of those two. It is a one and a half mile track with heavy tire wear. Charlotte is the exact same configuration and the exact same length of Atlanta and Darlington has heavy tire wear. So if you combine those two together we should know who is going to compete on Sunday. We can also look back at races earlier this year in Fontana and at Las Vegas. Fontana heavy tire wear, Las Vegas a one and a half mile track though with lower banking than Atlanta. So outside of the races where we were going back to the same location for the second time in a couple of days this is arguably the best data we've had going into a race that we've had all season long. That is a good thing. We want good data to inform our decisions and we have that here and we should lean heavily on that info to decide which drivers want to target both among the studs and among the value plays. So to recap here strategies for Atlanta we want two studs to lead laps in each lineup. We want to look for a place differential among our value plays. Also look for potential mid-range lap leaders and if you're trying to decide any of that lean on the data from Charlotte and Darlington and to a lesser extent Las Vegas and Fontana to decide which drivers can stand out for DFS. Those are the strategies for this weekend's race. With that in the books let's move to our tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries over on FanDuel starting off with the elite tier that is Kevin Harvick at $14,000 through Martin Truex Jr. who is $12,200. And to me I think Harvick absolutely deserves to be the favorite for this race. He ranked first in my betting model right now but it's not just that he is first. He is really in a tier of his own. It is actually the eighth best ranking anybody has ever had my model dating back to the start of 2019 which is insane when you consider there is no practice. Practice can really move drivers in the positive direction. We don't have that date on Harvick but he still grades out as being like really, really good in my model. There have been nine drivers with a model projection within a half position of Harvick in either direction and those drivers have won four of the nine races and have been in the top 10 all nine races. So I think Harvick is first. I think he is in the tier of his own and I'm gonna try to be overweight on him this weekend regardless of where he draws or qualify. Track history doesn't matter all that much to me but Harvick has also been good this year so I would say he is your deserving number one stud for this race. After Harvick, my model ranks this tier Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Brad Kezalowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. A lot of times I will disagree with my model. I don't disagree here, I think that's actually the way I would rank them personally as well and I'm comfortable being low on Busch again because he just hasn't really had it this year. He has yet to have a top five average running position this year. Even if we lower that to top seven average running positions, he has done that once so far this year. Whereas last year through the first nine races, he had done that eight times. So I'm okay being off of Kyle Busch a bit. I'm also okay being high on Joey Logano and Brad Kezalowski. The Penske racing cars were dominant here last year, all three of them. Kezalowski won, Logano and Ryan Blaney both had cars capable of winning but just got pinned to lap down due to a poorly timed caution. The model has Logano ranked higher due to what he did mostly in Las Vegas but he was good in Charlotte too. So I'm actually okay ranking them the same way my model does which is Harvick, Logano, Chase Elliott, Kezalowski, Truex and Kyle Busch. The second tier on Fandall is Denny Hamlin at $12,000 through Jimmy Johnson at $10,000 and in this tier, Johnson is the only one starting outside the top 12 and I am okay with him here. If there is a cheaper driver I think has the potential to lead laps or if there is just, I have the salary. Like if I have the salary to get to Johnson without giving up lap sled, I will use him because I think that's totally okay. We could get a situation similar to what we had last week because in that race, I thought Ryan Blaney had a lot of laps at upside but he was really cheap and so when I paired Blaney with Brad Kezalowski or Joey Logano for my lap leaders I had enough guys at the front to lead laps and I had the flexibility to afford Jimmy Johnson. I think that's probably where I'll be again this weekend but Johnson overall is in a pretty good spot. He was fast in Darlington, had the tire wear track, he had a top 10 average running position in Las Vegas, Fontana and Charlotte so he's a situational guy where he needs to fit your bill, need to make sure you get your lap leaders in first because he's probably not gonna do that but I will definitely get some Johnson in the line it's where I can afford him without giving up lap sled. Blaney factors into that equation once again here because he is $10,500 and last year in Atlanta Blaney led 41 laps after starting 26th. He had a really good car, just didn't get the finish to show for it. He finished third in both the Charlotte races this year. He almost won in both Las Vegas and in Fontana so Blaney is a really good option. If you want someone who is cheap and can lead laps and can win Blaney fits that really well at 10-5. Alex Bowman a bit more expensive but he's kind of in that same mold too. He won in Fontana, the heavy tire wear track, he won stages in Charlotte and Darlington and is due for some positive aggression from a fishing perspective. So Bowman fits, Kurt Busch is 11,000, he runs well here and he runs well in general tracks with heavy tire wear. He had a top 10 average running position in one of the Darlington races and one of the Charlotte races so Busch is in consideration. The reason that I'm lower on him than Blaney and Bowman is that I don't think he has the same potential to dominate and lead a lot of laps so I think that Blaney and Bowman can do that. Because Blaney is cheaper I will put him highest among that three followed by Bowman and then Busch but I am willing to consider all three of them to potentially lead laps and finish really well. Denny Hamlin's in this tier from a salary perspective but his true speed I think is in the next tier up. He's kind of similar to Martin Truex Jr. where he's been really good this year and he's kind of cheap. So I would say that Hamlin is atop this tier than Blaney, Bowman. I'd go Johnson ahead of Kurt Busch despite the fact that he's not gonna lead laps and then Kurt Busch would round out this tier but everyone's in play if you like them that's just the way that I would rank them personally. The mid tier on Fandula is William Byron at $9,400 through Eric Almerola at $8,000 and in this tier we have a couple of guys starting the top 12. Those are Clint Boyer and Eric Almerola. I'd rather use the guys starting further back within this tier but Boyer is at least kind of interesting for tournaments. He has had average running positions of sixth and eighth the past two Atlanta races. He generally runs well on slicker tracks as evidenced by his runs in Darlington and Stuart House racing cars have speed on this track type. So Boyer is a tournament consideration for me even though he's definitely not gonna be in a cash game roster. For cash games I would be most interested in Matti Benedetto, William Byron and Eric Jones. I think for upside you look at Byron and Jones first and it could kind of go either way between the two of them. Byron has just been so fast this year but he hasn't been able to convert. Jones has finished better. He just hasn't shown the same upside. Jones did have a top 10 average running position in both the Darlington races so he can do well on a slick track. He was seventh here last year so I kind of go back and forth but I think that if we're talking cash games I think I might go Byron over Jones just by a hair. I think upside is consideration in cash games too and Byron has that. So Byron over Jones in cash games, Boyer over Elmerola for the tournament plays at the front and I would rank both Byron and Jones ahead of Boyer in tournaments as well. So he's consideration but not a priority for me. The wild card here is Matti Benedetto at $8,600 because he's had bad results recently which means he will now start outside the top 12. He had been starting inside the top 12 previously but if you tell me right now on Thursday morning Matti Benedetto will start 24th with the speed he has in that car. I'm gonna have a lot of Matti Benedetto. He could go nuts from that position. So D Benedetto at $8,600 is probably someone I would consider for cash games depending on where he draws but he is a tournament play, a great tournament play. I just don't think he has the same upside to win as Jones and Byron which matters. So if any of those guys draws a 24th starting spot between Byron, Jones, D Benedetto I am going to love them for cash games but I think all three are in play for tournaments. If they draw a higher ranked in the order Byron, Jones, D Benedetto. The value tier is Tyler Redick at $7,800 through Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at $6,600 and everyone in this tier is starting in the same tier. They're starting between 13th and 24th so I think I can just rank them straight up. The guy at the top of that list might be a surprise but it's Austin Dillon. Dillon is $7,500. He is $300 cheaper than his teammate Tyler Redick and Dillon has been really, really good since coming back from the break. He has had a top 10 average running position or he did have a top 10 average running position in both the Charlotte races. Redick was good in those two. So I'm not trying to downplay him but Dillon's race and finishes are really legit. So I am in on both those guys because they were so good at Charlotte and I know they're not going to qualify all that well. So I'm going to put Dillon slightly higher than Redick but I think that both those guys are going to be good plays this weekend. After that, I would actually have Matt Kenseth at $7,000 in this tier. He hasn't been very good since coming back but he's also in the same equipment as Kurt Busch and Kurt Busch is $11,000 whereas Matt Kenseth is $7,000. That's a huge gap and in theory they have the same cars so Kenseth I think should get respect from us due to the equipment alone. I prefer Austin Dillon because he was so good at Charlotte but Kenseth at $7,000 could contend as well. So Kenseth would be an except for me behind the two Richard Childers racing cars. I'd go Newman and then Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to round out this tier. The punting tier on Fandle is Chris Buscher at $6,300 on down and there are some really fun names in this tier starting outside the top 24. The two main ones are Christopher Bell and Cole Custer. Bell had a top 15 average running position in both the Charlotte races and again that's a sister track to this one. He won the Xfinity Series race in Atlanta last year. He mopped up, he led 142 out of 163 laps, that is domination. So I think what we've seen since the break is Bell getting used to the Cup Series car and rounding into four which is good. I will buy into that surge on a hyper-talented driver. Cole Custer actually did finish second behind Bell in that Xfinity Series race last year but to me the main appealing Custer is his equipment. Seward House Racing is going to give him a fast car and he could be starting as far back as 36. So it's going to be Bell over Custer for me and I think both could be really solid values if you wanna get up to guys like Jimmy Johnson, like William Byron and like Aaron Jones or Eric Jones for their place differential. So Bell and Custer are really good punting options. We have three drivers starting in the top 24 this year. It's Chris Buscher, John Hunter, Nima Check and Bubba Wallace and that does hurt their appeal, especially given that we have Bell and Custer who will not be starting that high. So I'm gonna rank Bell and Custer higher than these guys no matter what. But they will at least have some reason for consideration. Buscher finished ninth in Atlanta last year in worse equipment than he has right now. Nima Check and Wallace both had top 18 average running positions in the second Charlotte race. Wallace was also up there in the second Darlington race with heavy tire wearer. So I'm not out on those two guys or these three guys I should say with Buscher in there and I'd rank them Buscher, Nima Check and Wallace but I know that no matter how qualifying breaks, the draw breaks, I am going to rank Christopher Bell and Cole Custer as the main cash game considerations and the main tournament considerations in this tier as well. And then I'd also throw out Ryan Price at $5,000 especially if he draws like at the back end of this tier of that 25th through 36th tier, Ryan Price would be really good. We've seen Ricky Sinow Jr. his teammates run well, Buscher ran well on this car last year at this track. Price has had some really bad luck. So willing to go to Price but I rank him below both Bell and Custer within this punting tier. All right, let's close up shop here with the picks to win one above $10,000 and one below it on FanDuel. And I can't go against the model when it is so vehemently saying that Kevin Harvick should be the favorite for this race. So Kevin Harvick to me is the favorite. Like I would consider betting Kevin Harvick even though his betting odds are super short. He's plus 460 on FanDuel Sportsbook. It's really short. I would consider him at that number. So Kevin Harvick my pick to win among the expensive guys, among the cheaper guys we're going to stay in house and go with Clint Boyer, Kevin Harvick's teammate at Stewart Haas Racing. Really good in Darlington had a top 10 average running position in both those races with the heavy tire wear. He's been good the past two years in Atlanta and really good equipment. So Kevin Harvick and Clint Boyer, my two picks to win for this weekend in Atlanta. That is all the time that we have for today. Once again though, a lot of good stuff coming up here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Already have the UFC 250 preview with Austin Swain posted. Next week we have a pair of NASCAR podcasts and a PGA podcast with myself and Brandon Cadulla. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. And if you like what you hear, please leave a rating and review as well. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer, front of the video side of things here today. All these podcasts, at least most of them are going up on the FanDuel YouTube page as well. So if you want to see a video version, you can subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube page. Thank you, Cal, as always. And finally, thank you to everyone for tuning in today. I hope you all are being safe, being active, making your voices be heard and trying to make a difference in this world. I appreciate everyone who has done so already, but just be safe and be healthy. And hopefully we can have some fun watching some NASCAR this weekend and hopefully try to get to a better place in this world in the very near future. We'll talk to you all again next week. Good luck with your lineups. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.