 Not gonna lie to you tonight slate for daily fantasy baseball is pretty gross There aren't a lot of pitchers. I can feel great about in fact. There's no pitcher I feel great about for tonight. There are guys who I can talk myself into But I never really want to talk myself into guys So our quest for today try to find pitchers with upside because nobody has a good floor And the good thing for us at least is that although pitching is bad for us It's bad for everyone else too, which means everyone else dealing with these same issues and we can still win money So let's dive on in and try to identify how we want to play things on what is objectively a pretty gross slate Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm here to break down Thursdays Five game main slate with lock set for 7 10 for a tune night now as far as weather goes There is no rain in the forecast But I would note that New York City got dumped on yesterday and there was a lot of flooding and stuff like that They are currently scheduled to play the Mets versus the Marlins I would expect that game to play but I also would not be entirely shocked if that game were to get banged So check back to make sure that game is still on it is as of right now And again, I'm expecting it to play but just note that there is some Potential shakiness there despite the fact there is no weather in the forecast for today There's also a lot of stuff that could change for tonight. We got a starting pitcher situation That's not yet known we'll touch on that later on but the more incentive for you to swing back here at 4 p.m Eastern time today YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter on the fan dual pages there to swing by and see how things have changed throughout the day And I would know it's especially key because lineups do matter a lot We can see value pop up that we didn't discuss here during the show for today Yesterday we talked about Gavin sheets being good value He had a double dong although Bertha Montesey was not known to be coming back for sure in the morning Once it was known he became a good place So I would recommend in terms of the hitters specifically tuning in for the afternoon stream 4 p.m Fandall YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter will be live there taking your questions live on air also Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed still some time right now to check out the podcast They tour championship, which will lock later on today That is with myself brandy cadulla breaking down our thoughts on a unique format for the tour championship tomorrow NASCAR we also have USC coming up of course as always an NFL next one the first NFL podcast One week from today should be a blast looking forward to talking to you then make sure you hit subscribe And also if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review a football fans the 2021 NFL season is just around the corner and you still got time to fill out some best ball contest Go to fandall.com where you can enter any best ball draft that you want pick your league size pick your entry entry size and draft your team set it forget it you're good to go and compete for cash prizes Of course you have private leagues as well head on over to fandall today and start drafting eligibility restrictions apply Go to fandall.com or download the fandall app for more details pitching preview for this thursday slates Depends on who you ask right now. Sandy alcantra is the highest salary pitcher on fandall 10 5 He might not start it might be zack thompson. I am assuming right now. It is zack thompson thompson Would be next up in the rotation, but now trevor rogers is coming back. Maybe they Decide to have thompson, you know take a seat for a bit. I don't know either way We're going to assume here today thompson is starting I will talk about alcantra and things to watch and kasey does wind up being the guy shame the clan hand is 10 1 Tristan mckenzie is 8800 dollars mic miners 85 tukit you saw in coors is 85 then in water rodriguez is 8200 dollars and Running through that list. You can tell there's a lot of risk. There are no safe spots I don't think maybe alcantra would be kind of safe if he were to start but again I don't know if he'll start so if we assume that risk is there We can shoot for upside. This is not like a cash game slate in my opinion This is more of a tournament slate. So if we're looking for upside I think at water rodriguez might have the best upside of this group So I will be in on him for tonight rodriguez is facing the rays and there is a good amount of power in that lineup But not as much against lefties as versus righties their iso goes down to 164 versus lefties Which is down to about 40 points from where it's at against righties obviously the nelson-cruz acquisition does help them quite a bit in that regard, but They are definitely a team we want to We should be more inclined to use lefties against than righties They also do strike out They have a 24 strikeout rate versus lefties and that's why the discussion around rodriguez is upside is fair He is a good pitcher even if he is hyper inconsistent Rodriguez has had less movement on his fastball over his past 11 starts He has a 29 strikeout rate in that time, which is the highest mark on the slate He also has the second lowest hard hit rate allowed the fly ball rate is 35 percent So the proof rules for rodriguez are very good. That has not always led to great results He led up five runs to texas who is terrible terrible terrible against lefties He had just two strikeouts last time out against cleveland also a bad team against lefties So rodriguez is inconsistent and that also plays into the volatility discussion But he can't have a ceiling. He had 10 strikeouts against detroit He had eight against tampa toronto the yankees twice And there are not many guys in the slate who can get you eight strikeouts in a game So I think rodriguez is a fine play tonight even with his concerns. So yeah, it is Troubling that he has this inconsistency can have bad starts against bad teams But I think all things considered rodriguez is the number one guy for me at least for tonight As far as the number two We're going to go with a matchup base play here, which I don't like doing and it's a guy i'm still pretty wary of In carlos carrasco He has not gone longer than 78 pitches yet But he has some decent underline numbers and he gets the marlins tonight That may be enough to make him viable on what is really a rough slate The matchup here is pristine the marlins have an 82 wrc plus versus righties with just a 127 iso And that is a much softer matchup than carrasco has had recently His path three starts have come back to back outings versus the dodgers and then the giants He sells a 24 strikeout rate despite facing those teams The swinging strike rate is 12.7 across those three games. It was 14.1 against the giants Neck and specifically to me Was encouraging the velocity for carrasco was by a decent amount the best it's been all year He threw to 78 pitches, but those 78 pitches got him through seven innings It's possibly could have a longer leash If you know he's less efficient with pitches. So we just can't know for sure I think We can fully justify Taking swipes at carrasco here. It might not work But that's also true for literally every pitcher on this slate. So, you know, eat arbies Embrace the volatility embrace the darkness embrace the void. I think carrasco is a good play for tonight. He is $6,800. So you want to go nuts at courtsfield lock in carlos carrasco? and Hope he does okay again It's risky for sure for the final slot. He could go a lot of ways. We'll talk about alcantra again And things to watch we'll talk about tristan mckenzie. We'll talk about shea mclanahan There are concerns around all those guys though outside of alcantra if he does go But I just want to go with a guy who is like a decent all-around pitcher goes deep in games and is at home That's mike miner. Miner is not a high strikeout guy, but Neither are most pitchers on this slate I think that he's firmly on the table as a result of the things he does do well He's facing the royals or he's facing the cleveland. I should say Which is not the best matchup by any means, but it's also Definitely not the worst because cleveland They've gotten better. They've gotten guys like they got herald ramirez back last night That's good for them versus lefties, but also still just a 91 wrc plus a 159 iso They don't hit the ball in the air all that much. So I do still consider them a plus matchup obviously from the arrays I'll say ramirez they've got some dudes, but it's a pretty thin lineup overall Miner is pretty solid He's been using fewer change-ups over his past 10 starts and in that time his skill interactive erra is 4.47 He has a 20 strikeout rate of the 6 walk rates. Those are not world beating numbers by any means And you know, usually I'm more inclined to stack against those numbers and use this guy as a pitcher But in minors defense, he has faced some tough teams He faced houston twice then the blue jays white socks and red socks all once He don't expect great numbers against that string of teens He did still manage to go six innings in six out of 10 games. He had seven strikeouts three times So minor can score well on a bigger slate. I would not touch mic minor. I would have no interest literally zero interest, but I think that he's at least an option I would also say you could consider one offs against minor like from the arrays Definitely in play for one offs for today. Jose Ramirez definitely in play for one offs on this slate I think the minors an option I don't feel great about him, but I don't feel great about anybody here So minor to me would be number three and again, we'll talk about Mackenzie McClanahan and alcantra in things to watch if alcantra plays we're not touching mic minor But I again, I don't think that'll be the case for today Obviously pitchers are pretty thin stacks should be better and they are especially because I think course field Really fun for tonight. You look at the temperatures across today It's in the 70s low 70s almost everywhere Coors field is 79, but it's also Coors field So not only is it the tide for the highest temperature, but it's also far away the best part So I want to stack up both sides here and I can definitely do so Based on the pitching salaries and also the salaries at Coors are just they're too low It's kind of like they're not at Coors So just stack up Coors field for sure the braves have lost some firepower recently Obviously no wrong of the cunha jr. But also Ozzy Alby's that thing didn't look good I would kind of be surprised what he plays tonight But they're facing chichi. Gonzales at Coors field So I think that they are the top stack for sure Gonzales is moving into the rotation it once again in place of john gray Gonzales has been in and out of the rotation recently He got demoted after he returned from the coven i l but the velocity for Gonzales had been declining even before He got coven he has been down even more in the two outings since he returned And we've got eight outings for Gonzales with his velocity being down at least a bit and his strikeout right there is 14 He has a 5.16 skill interactive er a and those are numbers against which we can stack outside of Coors field You put him a course field against a powerful team like the braves That's pretty rough. He has a 6.62 er a there It is a depleted team in the braves, but they still have a lot of powerful hitters So I feel confident in the braves here whether Alby's plays or not That's the best thing about the braves in terms of trying to stack them for dfs is they're deep We can feel good about them pretty much no matter what they do With their lineup like their bench is really fun. Eddie Rosario might play he went deep last 90s usable at Coors field Same for Guillermo heredia like they've got dudes on their deep on their bench Who I'd be fine using for dfs and we can get to these guys We can also feel fine about the bottom of the order Like jock peterson I think you get lead off last night with Alby's being out. Let's say Alby's plays and peterson bat's eighth I would still use him I don't tend to use guys batting eighth and national league teams because they're in front of the pitcher Does put a pretty big cap on their upside, but like with jock. It's fine So I would potentially make an exception here. I think that one through eight. They are very stackable So to me the braves A high quality stack for today and to me pretty clearly the number one stack the Rockies are number two I do have a strong preference for the braves, but I do like the Rockies number two They're facing tuki tussans. He has been out of the rotation very briefly He now is back in for tonight And he's had some good flashes But i'm not sure it's good enough to avoid stacking against him at what is far and away The best run scoring environment on this lake tussant has been throwing more splitters recently If we look at the final five starts he made before that one bullpen appearance He had a 4.69 skill interactive er a which is largely inflated due to an 11 walk rate He was putting guys on base and that's an issue when you're still having trouble suppressing hard contact in that time Tussaud I led up a 47 hard hit rates with a 41 fly ball rate That led to some dingers He led up two home runs the brewers and the marlins and those are not the the best teams the marlins game was in Miami as well So tussaud can get strikeouts and there are paths To this stack failing as a result of that But it's so hard to bet against cores on this specific slate So I think it's wise to stack the Rockies here and be not as high on them on the braves But pretty close to it and just having a lot of bull teams in this scenario when you're stacking the Rockies I think we need to be higher on trevor story than we've been throughout most of the year He seemed like he I don't know if he was hurt or whatever He just didn't seem like he's himself this entire year There wasn't as much power there, but over the past three weeks story's hard hit rate is up to 51 It is 43 for the full year He is striking out a bit more, but I'm okay with that trade off if it comes with more power So I think that story is back to being a focal point Within our rocky stacks, which to me at least hadn't really been the case for a large portion of the year But I do think that uh story What he's done recently is enough to bump him up in my mind and make him once again The shining star in our rocky stacks as far as the non-core stacks for today This one again is under the assumption that Zach Thompson starts for the marlins instead of sandy alcantra We'll talk about the Thompson scenario now and the alcantra situation in things to watch the Mets if they do phase Zach Thompson I think would be a good stack for today Thompson someone I really did like when he first got called up But he's been struggling a lot recently Thompson first started to struggle back in early july And he did make some adjustments the first thing he did was cut back on his changeup That didn't help his most recent adjustment has been to throw more cutters And that hasn't done the job either in the four starts with that approach Thompson's strikeout rate is 11 percent, which is the lowest number on this slate He has a 5.76 skill interactive era. That is the highest number on this slate And he's also letting up a lot of fly balls. He has let up a 44 fly ball rate The one thing Thompson has done well is keep hard contact and check That's likely why his results have largely still been good He did though let up foreign runs to the Padres He let up five runs with three earned to the reds in miami last time out He has benefited from a lot of plus situations pitching in miami specifically, but also facing some good matchups The Mets are not playing well right now We just don't have many great offense to choose from on this slate So I think that allows us to use them despite their very legitimate struggles Now one guy I do want to turn to here And it's despite the fact i'm not going to need salary savings is jonathan vr He's probably going to hit lead off by the guests based on their more recent lineups We know about the speed for vr, but like he also has a 218 iso versus righties You can get that for $2,500 And he has a lot of positional versatility too, which I I've enjoyed for him a stacking perspective I had from a one-off perspective So we're not going to need the salary savings tonight. I don't think but I still believe that vr is someone I'd be willing to use potentially even the salary on the table because I do like The upside that he possesses given the steals and given the power he has shown Let's move now to talking about things to watch and specifically focusing on alcantra If alcantra were to start from the marlins, he would become the top pitcher on this slate for me He has started to lower his sinker usage, which is something we always love to see sinkers suck So see a sinkers the strikeout rate in that five-star sample with fewer sinkers is 28 percent The fly ball rate is low still despite fewer sinkers So why use it if you can get get ground balls without it? So if alcantra starts he is the top guy on the slate it Thompson starts I'd stack the mats does depend a lot on the situation So once again would recommend swinging back by at 4 p.m. Today if you can to check out the q&a I'm not opposed to stacking the cubs here. They're facing Mitch Keller. Keller is Really struggling with hard contact and the cubs at least have some individuals who can hit the ball hard So frank schwindel rafael otega patrick wisdom e and hap all those guys work And I could see stacking those four guys specifically So the cubs I think more so for one else But you know I could see stacking those four guys together and hoping the bottom of the order does something To increase played appearance projections for the top guys in the order for today Finally want to talk briefly on shame mclanahan and tristan mckenzie from mclanahan It's about the matchup the reason I didn't have them in the pitching section The red sox are a really good offense and mclanahan's biggest flaw is letting up a lot of hard contact The good thing from mclanahan the reason I think you could still get to him is that the red sox had been weakened due to all their COVID positive tests So they've lost some specifically guys who are good against lefties and kiki hernandez and xander bogart So maybe that's enough to be high mclanahan I'm still a bit worried because schwerber's there renfro's there martinez there rafael beaver's gonna lefty's but You know you've got leeway to use mclanahan, especially on what is a pretty wild slate far as mckenzie The reason i'm not there is pitch count. He's making his first start since he came off the il He did miss basically the minimum number of games But it was a shoulder injury and shoulder injuries are always troubling for me when it comes to pitchers Maybe it was like a workload thing and they wanted to put him on the shelf Keep him rested up in a season where they're probably not gonna, you know be doing too much so If you feel good about the pitch count mckenzie is in play I don't feel good about the pitch count. So that's why i'm lower on him so mclanahan to me I don't know. I think that maybe i'm too low on him But i'm just really wary of a guy who loves a that much hard contact facing a team that has Jeannie martinez hunter-renfro, etc etc couchwarmer and stuff like that. That's why i'm lower there But again, i'll contrast the big one to watch for today Let's finish up here with some dinger calls focusing exclusively on course field because of the Coors fieldiness of it the boring one is freddie freeman freddie freeman is a good baseball player I know breaking news But he's at coors field facing a guy who doesn't get strikeouts and is letting up a lot of hard contact right now So there's no albies freddie freeman the clear top guys the boring call is freddie freeman The more fun one is on the rocky side. That's alias diaz He's been hitting for a lot of power recently and not exclusively at coors field So diaz a catcher people don't tend to use a lot of catchers on fan duel. So Maybe with freeman being there with cj crone being there And in the way that those things break out. I wouldn't be shocked if he goes a bit overlooked So alias diaz to me a really fun option tonight at $2,700 That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot again Though a lot still to potentially change throughout the day So make sure you swing by four p.m. Eastern vandal youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages to take your questions And get you set for tonight's light and talk about any things that may have changed since this morning If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We recorded our college football week one betting preview with ben stevens of sports grid yesterday That is now up talking about his favorite bets week number one find that by switching for covering the spread also Make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed on apple podcast spotify stitcher google podcast or wherever You get your podcast big. Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck on what could be a pretty wild Slate, but hey again. It's rough for everyone so we can still win some money Let's do that now and get set for a fun weekend. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network