 If you have a completely negative bias on these earning seasons, no matter how good potentially companies stock can react, they will get sold, right? We will test the bottom of the chapter. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Use Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well, hope everybody is having a great weekend. Not so great much news for the stock market. And it really, again, it really shouldn't be a surprise. And for all you guys who are watching for the first time, first of all, welcome. But it's all about technical analysis and it's not one of those scenarios that the market just snuck up on everybody and said, well, we're going to start dumping. Again, we talk about, if you go back to like the first video underneath the 50 day moving average, we kind of had a little bit of a roadmap for investors and traders to kind of get their mindset of what potentially could happen next. And the most important thing, the most basic things about technical analysis is anything that's above the 50 day moving average is bullish, right? And you can see it right over here. First reclaim over the 50 day moving average, we had a nice three week run. First close below the 50 day moving average here. We're not even going even further back, you had a three month decline before reclaiming the 50 day moving average. But the most important part was where we were two weeks ago. And that was the first close below the 50 day moving average. And once you start taking away support and that support turns into supply, it's an uphill battle for longs to kind of get their head above water. And that's exactly what we've seen now for the last couple of weeks. Yeah, as there have been pockets of strength that the market's been rallying, putting up some pretty decent numbers along the way. Absolutely. But if you look at how the formation is going, this is literally a pure technical rejection under the 50 day moving average. And the key part to last week was not only did we try to reclaim the 50 day moving average twice back on the QQQs, they got rejected back to back days exactly the same area. So you can see a lot of people talking about how can you see this market coming in? How can you possibly believe that anybody saw this coming? Again, if you do put in your homework every single day and everybody should be looking at charts every single day. We've been talking about the cell bias now from two weeks ago, the first close below the 50 day moving average. And as long as we stay below 347 on the close on the QQs, it's gonna continue to be cell bias because stocks are getting stopped at every single supply zone and every single rally. And no matter how good the earnings are from certain companies, they're still getting sold. So for example, you had Netflix who kicked off earnings this week, right? And this is kicked off earnings for the technology names. And you saw the forecast sour, the kind of how to crappy quarter to the previous quarter and this is the first time in 10 years they've lost subscribers. The market obviously made a tremendous statement. Netflix got hit for 30%, right? And even a darling like Tesla, which is a cold stock. Everybody loves the stock. Everybody loves trading the company, right? Even then it got really sold on pretty good earnings as well. And we now is kind of trapped back into supply here. But the majority of what we're seeing here is not from what we're seeing from Ukraine. We've been watching kind of these videos now for the last couple of weeks. You know the queues have been coming in now since January, right? Since the end of December, since January. And the Ukraine users are just kind of a cherry on top to shift the sentiment. The most important part is now we're kind of in the middle, early starting this week, kind of in the middle of earnings season. You have Amazon this week. You have Facebook this week. You have Twitter, Big Saga obviously going on there with Elon Musk. You have Microsoft. So you have a lot of really good names, right? A lot of really good names. And the most important part is how is the market going to react to these quarters, regardless of where we are underneath supply? It's going to be very, very important to see if the queues want any shot. Again, the key magic number is at 347 level. But based on what we're seeing, and if you look at the indexes this week, you know, pretty ugly stuff, right? Completely the opposite of what we saw several weeks ago when we were reclaiming the 50-day, pretty ugly stuff. You saw the NASDAQ losing about 4% this week, which was, you know, pretty bad week. You got the Dow down 2%, and the S&P nearly fell 3%. But the most important part is we're not even at the bottom of the range here. And this is kind of your next measure potential here, all the way down to the February 24 lows and the lows from March the 14th. And you could clearly see they're both lining up exactly the same way. 318 becomes, well, actually 317 becomes a very, very important level now on the queues. And if you get any type of more aggression and buyers, you know, buyers are on strike and they're rejecting pretty good news, pretty good news or pretty good potential earnings events, you are going to test this bottom channel here. And again, it's very, very tough to turn around and have any data that's going to back up your notion that the market is a buy. It's not a buy, right? Until, again, until we reclaim supply, it's very, very tough, yes. Are you going to see some days? Again, we could have a day, you know, a Monday that we bounce back 3, 4, 500 points. The Dow was down about 1,000 points on Friday and as that got hit as well. So it's not about the individual day, it's all about the macro formation. And as we see here coming into Monday's session, if we start taking down Friday's channel, we still have at least another seven points to go in the NASDAQ 100. And the most important part is if the earnings catalyst, and that's exactly what we are right now, we really don't have any more catalysts that could really benefit the bulls. If you have a completely negative bias on these earnings seasons, no matter how good potentially companies stock can react, they will get sold, right? And we will test the bottom of the channel here. The most important part is what we talk about is learning from history, OK? And, you know, I had a video two weeks out when we first closed below the 50-day moving average. And if you go through the YouTube feed, it was like two weeks ago. And I basically said, if you don't learn from history, you're doomed to repeat it, right, that old adage. And, you know, again, we had, right, even if you're a shorter term career has not really started, you had the point of reference, right? You had the point of reference first closed below the 50-day moving average, which led to the three-month sell-off. And again, we're below the 50-day moving average again for the last two weeks. And this is work kind of playing out again. So history always repeats itself. But the cool thing about history repeating itself has a trader. That's where you learn. That's where you stop making the same mistakes you made a year ago, two years ago, eight years ago. You start kind of defining what you are by your experience level, your screen time. And if you, you know, completely are not paying attention to market action. If you're not doing, you're not putting in the work to see exactly where these stocks are closing, where these ETFs are closing, where the indexes are closing, you're cheating yourself. You're cheating your development. And you're still making fundamental mistakes of trading stocks to the long side while we are underneath supply, which is a very, very basic way to kind of derail your career very, very early. The market doesn't suck, guys. Remember, the market is the market. It's not there to facilitate you. It's not there to make you rich. It's not making you poor. It's facilitate buyers and sellers. So when the buyers clean up supply, stocks go higher. When the sellers clean up, demand stocks go lower. And that's exactly what we have here. We had a breach of demand two weeks underneath supply. And we had this really pretty aggressive sell-off on Friday, which is setting up again for lower prices going into this week. So again, you had your opportunity two weeks ago with kind of, if you were an investor, we talked about, you know, talked about in the video how to combat a potential move underneath the 50-day moving average. We talked about positioning hedges against your portfolio, whether it's shorting queues, whether it's shorting spies against your overall exposure, going to the sidelines if you're a long-term investor, or again, crazy as it sounds, you can trade from the short side. There's a lot of money to be made on the short side because stocks take the stairs up, right? That'll ladage and the elevator down. And you saw exactly that what happened this week. Stocks got absolutely annihilated. No matter what it was, it got absolutely hit. And the most important part is kind of where we are in the closing Friday basis. We are setting up for lower prices unless some really, really magnificent news comes out and saves the bull. So a really good aggressive week. We'll get into the pivots in a second. Obviously, we're definitely sell bias going into Monday's session. If you guys remember, the previous week was the three-day weekend. And it really does show that there was no, there was absolutely no defining moment last week. Everything was super choppy just because people were on vacation taking advantage of the three-day Easter break. But most important part was channels were contracting, right? Nothing was going higher and nothing was going lower. There wasn't enough fear. And there wasn't enough aggression to take it higher. Once the players came back, you saw all those channels go from contraction, go to all the way to expansion and had some really, really fantastic moves going into this week. And Friday was no different. So let's talk about the pivots. Again, there was no, there's never, it was very rarely a video on Thursday, but NVIDIA broke down Wednesday going to the Friday session. There's 210.75 bottom of the channel. If it confirms can build, got destroyed when all the way down to 200. And here is the follow-through from Friday. NVIDIA needs to confirm the 200 down. Here is NVIDIA, got absolutely slammed, right? So here's the 210, right? Here's the 210 from Wednesday. Here's the 206 from Thursday, excuse me, same day. Close the 200, confirm 200. Close all the way down into the 195 level if the market continues lower. You have room all the way down to 183. Amazon got wrecked. And I still think it goes lower. Amazon 2950, if it builds below, can flush. Here is Amazon, you can see here one by one. So here is Amazon stopped at 2950 at the linear regression line on Thursday and on Friday started building below the 2950. The only reason it got saved here in the 2870s is the linear regression line. This band starts losing on Monday. You know, again, look at the room you have. Again, nobody's saying it's gonna go down to 2670s, especially before earnings, but you could see visually how much room you have. So great move there as well. MDB, thin player, not really my cup of tea. If you're short this thing, you have to manage your position a little too thin for me. Close underneath the 50 day moving average if it builds below 374, it can flush. Not a big move yet, okay? Cause I don't think a lot of eyes are on this thing, but it closed below that 374 level, put in a low of 368. This thing starts losing 368. Again, look at which room you have all the way to the bottom of the chart here on the 38 lows of 272. There's a lot of room, especially in a lot of these high-flying names. TTD, I still like, hasn't broken down yet. TTD, if it builds below, can flush this 60. It got below the 60, but not a big move yet. Maybe it had a too big of a move, but I still like this thing. Look at this thing. If this thing starts confirming down below Friday's channel, there's a lot of room down all the way down to the $50 area. So I really like this TTD going into Monday. Airbnb 15660, if it builds below, can flush. These things are all setting up, folks. All setting up for lower prices. 156 closed right below the channel here. This thing confirms Friday's price action. Again, look at which room you have down into the 140 area on Airbnb. ZS got hit as well. 210, 50, 210, if it builds below, can flush. Here is ZS. Again, as you can see here, it's all cell bias, right? So it got below the 210 area when all the way down to 205. I still think this thing goes lower. The bottom of the channel here is all the way down to 186. Netflix, I tried along, I tried along on Netflix on Friday off this 223 level, ran up about a dollar or so, and then came back. So I kicked it out pretty much break even. Then the stock, you know, if stock ran into another $3 or so, but you know, this thing looks lower. Obviously closed below the earnings lows. Microsoft got destroyed, 278.30, 278. If it builds below, can flush. Here was Microsoft. Here's the two, excuse me, here's the Microsoft earnings, right? Took out this whole 278 level, traded all the way down to 273. It looks like it wants to test 269. So really good moves, really, really good moves here. Google got absolutely destroyed. 2495, it builds below, can flush. Here was Google. Right, here's Google. Took out this whole channel here, went down 100 points, great, great job guys. On Google, AFRM, shorted this thing from Thursday, from the 34 area, went all the way down to 30 and changed completely out of it now. Really good move on AFRM. NVIDIA just destroyed X-ray, you know, very weird. X-ray only went down like 50 cents. It closed below 41. It still looks lower than its earnings flush, but it was very odd that it didn't flush with everything else. Nice little scalp on the upside, 1030, went to like 1035, nothing crazy there. Like I said, take on the way up. The market is really, really weak. Here comes Google, Google, and all the way down to, it was down 100. And this is the first move, only down 25. This thing went down 100. Big move there. Here comes Amazon, 2900 on deck, went to 2870. Here comes AFRM, 31 on deck, then it was 30 on deck. So really good move on AFRM for a two-day push. Here comes Google, 2400. So yeah, I mean, we still like everything lower, obviously. Again, like I said, anything is possible. You know, the market doesn't go straight down. When you look at the queues, you could see that. No matter how much we were sell buys for three months, you did have periods that the market was gonna go higher. But again, guys, just remember, just write this down, that the market cannot go higher until the queues reclaim the 50-day moving average. And that's 347. Every rally pretty much gets stuffed here. And we're definitely sell buys until we get back above the 50-day moving average. And again, next measure potential, and obviously the catalyst is gonna be a very, very big deal because earnings are coming out with the big gorillas of the tech names. If they continue to sell this, we should continue to get back down to this bottom of the range here of 317. And if we close below the bottom of the range here of 317, then we have a lot of lower prices to come. So yeah, guys, I'm doing this for 23 years. It's nothing to do with fear mongering or this, that the other thing, it's just the stock market, right? I've traded through three bear markets that lasted for three years, okay? It's just the reality. Stocks go up, stocks go down. If you've been trading for less than three to five years, you really haven't experienced this yet. It is not, the market's not a personal attack against you. My words that are coming out of my mouth they shouldn't make you feel one sort of way. This is just technical analysis. This is just a way that you look at the market and try to take advantage of data that's trading on both sides of the market. And if you do want to continue a career and continue a very long and fruitful career, you have to put in the work, guys. Know exactly where the market is before the trading day starts. There's no breakouts in the bear market. There's no breakouts in the sell scenario. Can you find something to trade to the long side? Of course you can. But again, the key is going with the win and not against it. Guys, God bless, I wish you guys the best of luck. Have an awesome trading week, folks. Have a great remainder of your weekend. And with God's help, I will see you all Monday. Take care.