 Hello, everybody. Welcome to Tuesday live stream. It's about one o'clock Eastern Standard Time and I'm feeling pretty good today. I like these days. I don't know about you. I'm a big fan So of course, I think we can all feel it and it's coming like a train which is the bearish sentiment and that has taken over what's going on in the market and I have to tell you it never surprises me what the market does and It's always fun and games Intel the macro events come down upon you and you have to think to yourself I should I sell should I get out and of course the people that are just getting here new Who made some fantastic games like I'm out of here. Is that just how tourists do it? That's fine. So Bitcoin Down almost 3% seven days 12% Ethereum. I mean, I don't need to tell you this you've seen your portfolio you know how bad it is and I mean or good depending on what you're looking at and we're gonna see that it's mostly a red day except for okay be good for them See what else is good? Pepe coin is up 8% man. I should have 3x levered long on that one. Wow Core is up 10% we're gonna talk about in a second Celestia that's majority of what's actually going on and The question is why why is it so bearish what's going on? Of course, there's a lot of different things I can contribute to this but Just everybody knows If we take a look at the time spent in risk bands and of course these changes time goes on But I like to use this one just to kind of give me a sentiment about where we're actually at This is from Ben's websites And I steal everything I possibly can if you want to steal it I was linked in the description you can sign up for it But just so you know the Bitcoin is currently because you would think like just you know how far we keep falling We're you think like oh like the risk is over here right and on the lower end No Bitcoin is currently in the 0.6 to 0.7 band right now, which is over here It's still a little heated. I mean as we've gone down and then we take a look here This is one of my favorite trend lines and We can see here that If we're taking a look at and we want to I know people say well just zoom out It's no big deal sometimes you got to zoom in and get to get the picture This red line is the fair market value of the entire crypto market And you need to see that We were actually at a fair market value for a little bit of time and I think that is fantastic because We've had a heck of a run-up. Have we not especially after the ETF or for Bitcoin was actually approved I mean look at this beautiful Beautiful and now we're a little bit we're a smidge below the fair market value line and you can see it We can reset it. We're not odd. We're not usually at that fair market value line So if you think and then and in actuality a lot of the time we're below it So if we take a look at this and go well, how far can we drop same but his guests but me personally There's a reason why I have these rules below my enormous head And there's five of them and I and I say these things because most of you guys know it I'm glad you guys are here because you know, not a lot of tourists are left over which is fantastic So the rules are don't invest more you can afford to lose Right, I mean right now is my portfolio down quite a bit. Yes But did I do the last? Rule which is take profits. Yes, I did and this is why I'm just this is how I am When these things go down me and my personal opinion I kind of feel like this is the time to start accumulating again because I was kind of getting leery on my dollar cost averaging But now as things are starting to go go down the tubes They start to depreciate. I'm like, this is great. This is fantastic So again, the rules are I mean they're there to remind me and of course you can use these or you can discard them or add or Take away, but these are the rules that we have and I'm actually quite happy for it So the question then is well Rob, why is this happening? Well, there's a couple of reasons obviously and this was a great article from coin desk Analysts who call bitcoins pre having rally to 70k turns bearish There's some there's some nuggets some good information here So let's just go over this real quick of why this gentleman Marcus Tielson founder of TEDx research is now saying hey risk off, baby risk off So the analysts who big of bitcoins bottom November 2022, which is a pretty good time November 2022 Essentially one almost to the day one year after the all-time high November 2021 Was the bottom which is what we all take a look at as far as the four-year cycles Everybody makes fun of them afterwards, but they all believe in them when things just kind of line up like they've been doing the last 14 years and yeah, I'm gonna get into this and the recent pre having surged to record highs has turned bearish on Risk assets. So people are saying hey, this is just too much. I got a de-risk And this is from Marcus 10x research. He goes this is why Our growing concern is that risk assets stocks and crypto Are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction and as a reminder this was put out today So if that scares you Then maybe you invest a little bit too much, but that excites you like myself Maybe you're in the right place at the right time to start re-accumulating just saying Yeah Anyhow the primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. That is very true I mean the feds doing their job, but they just can't get down to that magical 2% number But the bond market now projecting less than three cuts and 10-year treasury yields We'll take a look at this surpassing 4.5 percent We may have arrived at a crucial tipping point for risk assets We any talk he's talking about 10x research and the fund that he manages We sold all our tech stocks last night. Let me say that one more time The guy who predicted The November 2022 bottom. I'm very well Said look we sold all our tech stocks last night as the NASDAQ is trading very poorly and Reacting to the higher bond yield. It's not just that there's something else We only hold a few high conviction crypto coins probably Bitcoin, but I could be wrong. We are bearish risk assets crypto and stock We are bearish risk assets and then the rest of it's kind of boring But this was pretty interesting the five-day average of the net inflows and the spot Bitcoin ETFs has dropped to zero look at that Look at all the the inflows that it's been for quite some time It's been hot very hot and now it's kind of gone down to a trickle Is this the end all be all we're in the bearish market forever? No But if you see this as I see this as whoo dodged a bullet because man I didn't think I was gonna be able to accumulate anything else. I thought we're gonna keep going up Well now's your chance Now we always talk about buying the dips and those things and you can do whatever you want to do This isn't financial advice. I'm not your dad. I'm just saying This could be a golden opportunity Why is this going on what's happening? Is it just that is just a macro? Well, yes and no and also don't forget There's rumors of war and when The markets don't like the rumors of war what they do like is when we actually get into the war zone and start fighting It's crazy to think about I'm not going to condone that I'm just saying that's just what it is It's anything happened with Ukraine February 2022 what happened during that time frame the entire market not just the crypto market entire markets dumped And what happened two weeks? The six weeks after rat Strong as again, and it was like no big deal. So it's By the rumor Sell the invasion, I guess I can't think I might I reverse that but all I'm trying to say is that this There are a lot of people saying that this could be the next World War III this could be awful. I don't tend to believe that and of course, this is still on the table After I ran launch the missiles Which were actually taken down by the iron dome mostly and from there and That is it and Geo mortal says it right. Don't forget the Middle East crisis exactly, right? So we've got that and then but also people like but Rob what about the Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong. It just got approved Yeah, but here you go. This is Eric Balchunis and Unlike myself he was spot-on for the spot Bitcoin TF and called it right and He was pretty pretty bullish on it as far as the spot ETF in January for Bitcoin Now talking about the Hong Kong spot ETF. He's not so much and this is what he says and he's right Hong Kong spot Bitcoin TFs. They've been approved to exist but not launch They were approved yesterday Rumor has it launching next week. So to not compete with Dubai conference. We'll get to that in a second Don't expect a lot of flows. I saw one estimate of 25 billion. That's insane We think they're lucky to get 500 million. Here's why ETF market is tiny only 50 billion total Chinese locals can't buy them Three issues were approved while Sarah China emcee and harvest are tiny no big fish like black rock Unaligned ecosystem is less liquid efficient ETFs will likely see wide spreads and premium discounts the fees Like to be one two percent nowhere near the dirt sheet fees from the us Take away other countries adding bitcoin ETF is no doubt additive, but it's nickel dime comparison to the mighty u.s. Market They to say it I gotta agree there, but I'm also a homer and I'm also a believer in the United States. So That's that part Now let's talk about these treasuries right so the 10 year Picked up and now we're at 4.63 Somewhere around there the treasury yield curves are supposed to look like this Essentially you are buying the u.s. Debt and the longer that you go for this debt The more the yield rate should increase because that makes sense, right? You're just going to do a month I mean back in 2014 or 2020 excuse me. It was 0.09 two months 0.1 percent. No one was buying this trash But then of course we come up here and you're like well if you want to you know, hold on to this for seven years We'll give you 0.48 or 10 years 0.63 or 21 you get what I'm saying, right? But when it inverts like this, it's not supposed to look like that just isn't when they're saying Okay, 10 year. We'll give you a lot more and it starts to creep up says on a good look So we have that aspect then also but people say well these rate cuts are going to be great. Well, just remember There's these things called spreads and we take a look at the 10 and a three month again stealing all the information from Ben's website He doesn't mind that when you see that When it inverts and then uninverts and gets to the gets to the neutral part what happens after that recession Let's see It happens at 69 It's a weird time in 73 and look at this nonsense in 70 and 79 itself Then we saw again the same thing at 89. We'd blow this up 89 Then recession in the 90s And then we saw this over here in the dot-com bubble And then it uninverted because they started to cut rates then recession and then here in 0708 recession and actually Coincidentally happened over here During that coronavirus thing. I don't remember that big thing back in the day and then recession and then look at this We and it looks like we were turning a corner, but then of course no Can't get the inflation right and then here we are so what happens when we get down to neutral probably a recession The question is is how long we've taken a look at this And the average time we're looking at six to ten months afterwards then for a recession Can we eke this out? Who knows anybody's guess, but i'm Looking pretty positive on this part as far as to the recession all the way because we can't Get to neutral as well as we uninvert and then of course for The chances of a rate cut if we look at the FOMC the CME group we can see that the next meeting is the first of may 99.5 percent we're not cutting because the current target rate is 525 to 550 in june It's an 80 chance there ain't cutting In july all right looking pretty reasonable then september looks like our best bet 45 of participants think that we could see a cut and that's where we're at essentially in the long haul of things so A lot of things to go over but that's essentially why we have More of a bearish market and again you have to ask yourself. What does this mean for me? Where on my end this cycle? Did I invest a little bit too heavy because I got ahead of myself? Yeah, maybe that those things happen It's okay already look at this and go. You know what? Thank god Because as these prices go down I think this could be the perfect time to re-accumulate. It's up to you For me, I know what i'm doing the same thing i've been doing since the last 2022 Just accumulating and sticking around for the long haul. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comment section and then also last thing I will say that's a Really put people in a bad mood But look at this from dubai right now. It's to token 2049 and I was just saying just how off just how odd everything is This is the desert This is what people are going through if you go with the x you'll see it's just flooding everywhere massive amount of water And uh, I just thought to myself i'm like holy smokes. Maybe this is a sign. Hey, let's let's take a look at some more videos That was not more that's it. I think I was thinking of somebody else. Anyhow Hopefully everything works out over there in dubai, but again sign of the times I could be wrong and then Lastly before I do a little q&a. I had a We were we talked about this yesterday on this is just on x and I thought it was interesting as as we were getting bombed out poor charts of words rob when we were Seeing some some massive declines in price action for the crypto market and we're just as bad as today I found interesting that's a core Which is a layer two solution being built on bitcoin Evm compatibility smart contracts and dexs and things like that It was up 86 percent excuse me 84 percent and then To today That's still five percent. It's pretty good for everything in the in the dumpers And I actually had a meeting and a interview. This was rich rinds. He is one of the Initial contributors to core and we sat down for about 10 minutes or so and just talked about what they are what they're doing I'll release that and uh, probably by tomorrow And I'm going to do a deep dive into the into the core ecosystem and how they're working Making the layer two solutions on bitcoin a reality And then also, uh, I just had a meeting with jack lou. He is the ceo of magic eden I didn't know this but uh, because I've been and we we we're around for a long time. We kind of get Misconstrued as far as our data points that magic eden if you go to nft pulse or if you even want to go to Dapp radar, but magic eden is the place where Everything's kind of blowing up marketplace users Over the last 24 seven day 30 d 30 days in one year We're actually not one year magic. Open C does win that that battle Magic eden is crushing them or is doing pretty well and then marketplace trading Revenue marketplace volume marketplace royalties Open C's got a problem there and then a unique collections open. He does it so I sat down with uh With jack just talk about how this is working out and you know, what was going on In the future, so we'll release that in the next couple days or so we'll go from there But that's it for today. So look if you like today's video Give it a thumbs up consider subscribing when we talk about his time sensitive. Hopefully today it doesn't bum you out too bad That's just the crypto market and we call that a tuesday anyhow, if you gotta take off take off. I appreciate you stopping by