 Let's get over to our M. Mr. Tim or as we do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at odd or D hyphen oracle calm That's odd hyphen oracle calm He is a great newsletter to get over there check it out Tim. What's going on brother? Well, we got kind of a dead market here. This is a the week before option expiration week Okay, and a lot of times you get to kind of whipsaw market, so I'm thinking We pull up chart one. This is kind of a short-term view what I think may happen for the week is out Okay, I have shot one up. Yep Yeah, anyhow, that's this is the SPY and last Wednesday, which is December 30th or January 31st We had a kind of selling climax if you notice that volume on that day Was about a hundred percent Approximately a hundred percent greater than the previous days before it. Yes, it's a hundred twenty six million. Yep Yeah, twenty six million or no, it was a hundred and twenty six million versus fifty eight million, right? All right. Yeah, well, this is right. This is Well, we got twenty six million now on that chart, but last Last Wednesday, we had looks like over a hundred million shares. Yeah, no no Tim Tim. I said a hundred and twenty six million Okay Yeah, yeah, it was it was double. It was double exact. It was actually more than double a little. Yeah, it was double, right? Okay, cool. Yeah, yeah, well anyhow, so anyhow you get volume that high right off the bat Normally if the volume goes up gradually If you're coming down that's usually kind of a death signal at the market will continue But whenever I go out the door at the same time normally that just stops the rally and That's kind of exhaustion move to the downside. So anyhow We had a kind of exhaustion or we had a selling climax. Yeah, and then we ran back up and Normally I selling climax a lot of them are tested. There's okay. This one doesn't have to be I've got Play either. There's never there's never Never say never right right now. I'm with you. I get it trust me. Yeah. Yeah, there's examples where you know Yeah, they were selling climax or going back to test that the market just keeps going up. So I'm not betting on it, but I'm not Getting out of my long position either if it does happen buying if it doesn't happen. I think either way we go up So anyhow, I'm thinking if it's if we're gonna test the selling climax It's probably gonna be this week. Okay reason why is This is a week before option expiration week and the week before option expiration week If you're gonna have a whipsaw in the market, that's easy to set up do it No, and next week I think 73% of the time February option expiration week is up. Okay. Yeah, no, that'll be a nice setup I can see it trying to shake people out you get down there. You buy a bunch of options. Yeah, no It's kind of interesting. It's real interesting. Yeah. Yeah, I could set up there It may not but it's a possibility either way. I still think we go higher So that's lifted chart to I think we talked about this chart in the past This reason why I'm kind of sticking to my guns. I guess to stay long. I'm not really, you know there's some divergence around but If panic is kind of a trump card. Yeah, if you got panic usually that kind of trumps a lot of different type indicators and The bottom window is a 10-day average and that comes in 109 a little bit below Ideally like see above 120, but it's only a two-week period next higher ones a 21 day, which is a month and anything above 1.2 is bullish. We've got 1.24 and the next one higher is a Quarter three months and anything above 1.1 is bullish. We've got 1.13 So in general looks pretty good So normally you don't get big declines I mean you can but normally Especially this time of year to you know, yeah, like September October November you get some weird stuff kind of happen So but this looks pretty good on an immediate term basis You know if we were down or especially on a on the six three-day trend We were down round one, which is all that pink shaded area and those pink lines you get down there It can get dangerous And we're a long way from that. So I'm thinking if there's gonna be a pullback here. It's probably gonna be minor You probably I bet anything if you start pulling back that trends don't go right up Right and see if that happens or not if indeed we do pull back, but yeah, well, you know yesterday Tim I mean, you know you saw we had light volume I mean that S&P as well as the Nasdaq that rejected lower price man the volume contracted in the monster way man It was like, okay, where are these sellers man? I mean, you know, I mean the SM You know that the spy went to what 490 yesterday, but end up closing it, you know 492 50 and The volume contracted in a monster way. So it's kind of it's like okay, man It was like I don't know my ball in the air looks like at least 20% of contraction. Yes But you also notice yesterday, we didn't touch a higher or low is an inside day, right? Yes And so you got an hour, you know, if we we touch yesterday's high on a lighter volume That'd be a very time to touch here. Yes, they flow would be kind of a On a lighter volume be a bully somewhere neat. We didn't either and today I think I don't know if we could touch yesterday's higher or not But this is kind of a you know, this is kind of a quiet before the storm. Yeah, you know It gets this quiet, you know, now all of a sudden some news article comes out and and everybody's screaming again, so I don't know. Yeah, I know I know but they'll actually go back to yesterday. Yeah, and if you look I didn't forget to point it go to chart one again. Okay, you notice the we're kind of unchanged for the day We're up, you know, we're up just as mid barely up, but if you notice the VIX is down a smidge As as or even we're talking now and that's easy kind of a Bullish sign, so maybe though. Oh, yeah Look at the VIX is down 36 ticks and we're out here. Yeah, and not only that. Yeah, it's interesting Not only that actually when you take a look at this VIX actually you're gonna see now I'll look at this so this gets interesting Tim because you know what's going on I mean, I'm really like dissecting this a bit But what really has happened if you take the VIX going all the way back to that last low and Then you put a trend line up and it broke that trend line man Yeah, yeah, so that's but in general, you know, yeah, it's been kind of actually rising going up with the market I was I was looking at that that too. I'm thinking and that ideal, but you know, really speaking It's still staying way below 17. Oh, yeah Oh, yeah, my point is that it looks like this thing's going back to 12 right now 1241 or something man Yeah, we're 1331 right Yeah, so, you know that usually VIX starts going up before we actually see the top So, you know, it could be a minor pullback here, but you know, we'll put back to kid chart, too Again, I don't okay. Yeah a bigger time frame. We're not looking at really Anything dangerous here. We've not at the moment And we can go to chart three. Okay, almost run out of time here. That's all right. Let's just see where we're at Okay, yeah, we're doing it. We could 20 seconds. Yeah, let's do it. Let's do something. Yeah, right But yeah, we presented this before this is kind of a I Sit back in January. We're probably in the trending market Yes, one of the reasons why I'm saying that is because the RSI on the daily SPY Did get up around 80 and it's pretty rare for that to happen. Okay, stay keep keep that thought Tim Keep keep that thought keep that thought we're gonna be right back folks. This is Tim or this is Tom O'Brien We have the Dow industrials up 59 Nasdaq down 41 S&P's the flat Tim and I gonna be coming right back folks Welcome back folks. Tim or Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate your growl and prowl on us out here We have the Dow industrials Trating up 52 Nasdaq down 38 S&P's are up one was tackling our man is to Tim wood and I have the RSI Chod up right now Tim Yeah, yeah, this is kind of a quick review. We said something I think we talked about a little bit last week But it's just worth repeating kind of reminder what everything is But the RSI 80 if you look on the chart chart goes back to you know This chart is what 2005 so it almost goes back 20 years. Yes, and And the RSI hit 81 2 3 4 5 only six times Okay, that's that's what once every four years They're about sir bless. So it's pretty a pretty rare at my point to get the RS I to 80 on a daily basis and every time it did going back, you know 20 years or close to it Lot of times it marked a halfway point the next move up and so That's amazing. They're currency something you really shouldn't you know Actually should put in your toolbox because when it does happen that you kind of want to pay attention to it So probably that's another reason why we're probably in the trending market I think yes, we probably move higher all the way into maybe summer July August I don't know how it's all gonna work out. You know, I don't see anything Deathly bearish here. The VIX is not really rising the market's kind of dead. It seems to want just kind of rally You know, maybe we'll get a little shake out this week other than that You know, I think this year is gonna be another double-digit year part returns to the upside And I bet we put we're poor, you know come close to 20% again plus this is a Election year. Yes, even though, you know The the being you know the beings in power now are letting this market, you know the tank because that's politically not good for him No, for sure. And you know when Tim's talking a trending market folks, okay? Something that you can wrap your head around and then I'm glad we're talking about it now because I believe you You know your assessment of especially how this RSI is Tim because if you watch and remember folks if you're in your car right now, and you're not watching Don't I do not want you want you watching it on Your screen when you're driving, okay? Remember it's archived, okay? Because what you're gonna be able to see here also is this You're gonna be able to see that when the times that this RSI was at 80 and Tim is talking about the aspect of that It's the halfway move you can actually be able to see that because he has the spy underneath it And that being said what happens with trending markets folks is that you know you you trend trend trend You go sideways your trend trend trend you go sideways and every single time They won't let you in That's the hottest part about a trending market. Trust me. Even though, you know, we'll be going sideways lately you know The the bulls like oh no, is it gonna pull back the bears are saying no no no It's gonna go lower. Anyway, I just wanted to get that out. So it's yeah, that's a good point matter of fact, I took myself out of trades really good trades and Then I kind of waited for you know a pullback or some opportunity and they really they don't let you yet And so what you so I'm kind of sticking to this trade, you know may be wrong on it But I'm not I don't think I am so I'm kind of looking at the worst-case scenario We may taste test last Wednesday's low at the worst-case scenario, but other than that You know in general, I think this marks just gonna keep working higher especially, you know 73% of the time next week Yeah, where expiration week is up? So Emily and the rate cycles go on the position Yeah, and the rate cycles go on the right way, you know where the rates of peak That's gonna be choppy out here folks, but the rate cycles go on the right way meaning rates are coming down Rates come down dollars down markets up. Yeah period. Yeah. Yeah, okay It looks good. I mean, it's you know when we start getting into, you know August, September, October, that's when things really fly around. So that's for sure now I think if you've got a position, you know, hold this is probably where you're gonna make You know the most easy money, I guess per se where you can kind of set yes and not have to trade back and forth, right? So Tony now that's that so that's why I'm kind of just sitting here. Nothing real max going on Well, that's how Jesse living more said he made the most money sitting with his hands in his pocket, right? Yep. Yeah, that's true. You know, you got to know when to sit I guess then which is really tough to do Stop that kind of kill you. Yeah off-center. I guess a little bit There's sometimes you gotta just sit through it and you do and then move on so we go to chart four here Okay, I have it up Okay, this is a little bit of a gold market. This thing's gone sideways, you know, actually we there was an October low But we were out it came back down still above the October low I think there's the the actually the September October Or actually August September October of 2022 was an important low I guess from a quite a different monthly indicator seeing that was an important low so my opinion I don't think we're gonna break the that low of 2022 So even though we're close to it, I don't think we're actually gonna touch it Yes, I think the October low of 2023 is important low. I don't think we're gonna break that either But the chart we got on chart four here, I think yeah, this is a weekly. Yes Yeah, okay, it's a weekly inflation Deflation ratio and there's a couple two things going on with this chart Anyhow the RSI is it for the weekly inflation deflation ratio when it gets down around 30 It's usually a bottom when it gets around above 70 It's usually a top and back in October We had it got down below 30 turned up had had a little rally now We're back down close to 30 again, and I put the Bollinger bands on this ratio and every time You get above or below the Bollinger band. That's two Standard deviations from the norm and the norm is the mid Bollinger band Okay, so the market has moved too fast too quick one direction And now we've been actually below the lower Bollinger bands for about a week now the current Or the current price on the inflation deflation ratio is point one five and the lower Bollinger band Is point one seven minus point one seven I say even though it looked like right on it We're actually just a little bit below it last time we got below it was the October low That's pointed off to the right-hand Chart kind of blows up on a right-hand chart there. It kind of shows where it is. Yes So so you got the RSI pretty much where you need to be you're below the Bollinger band So the market on inflation deflation Ratio is stretched too much in one direction. So it's kind of like a rubber band Stretched right now, you know, are we going up a lot? No, but there's probably a low in this vicinity right here Okay, you know, is this the low that turns everything up when you scream up for the next Thousand years, you know probably not but if you look over the last 12 months We've we've done squat in the EX and XAU right basically, you know since October we You know, we started around we come back down We don't you know, we get over so levels rallies a little bit with a longer that the move sideways The longer the impulse wave once it starts So I'm thinking we're building a lot of energy on the bigger time frames here Will it go sideways for another month? Yeah, maybe Don't know but I know we're going to start your music. Yeah, that's all right You stay right there folks over that Tim and I are gonna be coming right back and with the next two shots That Tim's gonna do is the GDX. Okay, we have the Dow Industries right now up 76 Nasdaq's down 15 S&Ps are up four and a half. Don't forget you can reach Tim at odd or D hyphen oracle or our CLE dot com Stay right there Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks Tim or Tom or Brian and Tim is gonna be going over the GDX. Okay, Tim. We're cooking These are there's two charts left or this is momentum indicator This doesn't really try to pick the tops or the bottoms Just try to keep in the trade once it goes in, you know the direction up or down Yes And this is a weekly chart and the bottom window is the advanced decline cumulative advanced decline with this Bollinger band next one higher is a cumulative up-down volume on a weekly time frame give a cell signal back in like January of January and it's down below is mid Bollinger band to get momentum back up You need both those indicators close above the mid Bollinger band Okay, so far that it's not happened But this is not designed to pick the tops or bottoms designed to catch the trend So right now according to this momentum indicator trend still down now flip to chart six, okay We have this is the same chart, but it's on a monthly time frame This is the one that once you get this indicator going in in a direction either up or down It usually stays in that direction for months if not years it gave a cell signal back in 2021 and the top window is the up-down volume It's been on a cell signal since then and it's been on a cell signal On the bottom one to since 2021 both of them got up right smack at the mid Bollinger band You know in 2023 up I was going to bust through and both of them turned back down again But this is unusually long time most of the signals last a year a year and a half This has been going on for three years now So the markets do for something other than what it's been doing over the last three years So, you know, can it go longer? Yeah moment turn up. I don't know but You know, we're at another signal for a short-term pop on the indicator now. Well that turn into the major Rally It's always a pleasure Tim. You have a great one safe one of course we look forward to speaking to on Thursday All right, love you guys. Love you man. Okay. I always remember folks the bank and Clio hide out the book and run you over and thank God There's always another trade health habits and prosperity have a great night a safe night folks Come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning kicks us off 9 a.m