 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Axis of Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a really good week of trading Monday. I think a lot of schools are off the market. It is open. It is Columbus Day. Okay, so market is open for in case some of you guys have one. So let's talk about the tape. So last week was very, very, I would say aggressive, right? After the worst month of September for the S&P since the March pandemic lows, right? We had a very horrific nonstop selling for the investor crowd month of September, which is awful. And, you know, what was going to happen the first week of October and the first two weeks. And you guys saw it. This cartoonish like the Dow put up 1500 points, big, big move. The Nasdaq 100 and the QQQs, they had a really big move up from the lows and got stuffed right at the 20-day moving average. If you watch Wednesday's video, we talked about the importance of that 284, 285 level for the bulls to reclaim. And unfortunately, they didn't. And all roads led to the jobs number. We watched the report, the video from Thursday night. We were going to basically, you know, use our day based off the data. And there's a lot of things always in the market that could throw curveballs. But one of the major things that the market can do is throw a monkey wrench that doesn't make any sense. A lot of people go into trading and go into investing with that sense of the market needs to make sense. The market doesn't need to make sense. And here's a perfect example, right? Sometimes bad news is bad. Sometimes bad news is good. Sometimes good news is bad. Sometimes good news is bad. And Friday, going into the jobs number, here is a perfect scenario that rationally, right? Rationally, good news is supposed to be good, right? Not until you talk about what it's regarding to the Fed. And we got our job reading at 8.30 Eastern time and it was unexpectedly good. Jobs claims, I think they fell about 3.5%. And that on the surface, that's a good thing, right? That means, hey, there's more people, well, less people filing for unemployment. You know, the workforce is strong, the economy is strong. Well, not so fast when it comes to the Fed. And, you know, the fact that there was a surprise weakness, right? Weakness in the jobs market that they fell. Now it's changed kind of the narrative while now the Fed doesn't need to continue to increase Fed hikes. And that's a problem. The market read actually good news from Main Street as bad news. And, you know, we kind of all saw what happened, right? We all kind of saw what happened right from the word go. And when you look at the scoreboard and you turn around and you go, well, for the week, the S&P rose 1.5%. The Dow rose 2%. Pretty good numbers, right? And the Nasdaq was up 0.7%. That's all fine and dandy. But the problem is we were up like 5% within the first, you know, in the first 24 hours. So it's like, you know, it's like a gambler losing $100,000, making back $2,000 and just orders a bottle of crystal to celebrate. Not a lot of things to be excited about. But unfortunately, that's what the market is. That's what a bear cycle is. That's the predominant action of what's going to take place in below the 50-day moving average. And we talk about that. The crazy part about this market, and I tweeted this out on my regular feed, unlike 9-11 where there was so much uncertainty, terrorist attack, every possible day this new rumors, anthrax, this, that, the other, and the bear market from 2007 to the generational bottom of 2009, unlike those two markets that had crazy volatility the majority of the time, and it was really sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell for like 15 days in a row. And next thing you know, you have one day the market's green, and then you've got another 15 days of selling. This has been an incredibly orderly market. Even when you are below the 50-day moving average, and we lost it on the CPI, and we'll get to that in a second, right? Once we lost it on the CPI, we still had days that the bulls could actually make some money to the long side. Again, case in point, Monday and Tuesday. But the predominant action has been very, very orderly. Even with the most aggressive sell-offs, like the 1200-point reversal, we saw on the CPI number on September the 13th, and even yesterday's really, really big move down on all major indexes. It felt very, very orderly. It wasn't like, you know, you saw Tesla trading at a $30 range. You know, it was orderly. It was down, down, down, up a little bit, down, down, down, up a little bit. And that was kind of pretty much the whole day. And that's kind of the unique aspect of this sell cycle versus the one that I've seen in 2007 and 2009 and from 2001 to 2003. So it's very, very interesting how both bulls and bears, if they are both just poison, right? Just positioned enough to have enough patience to kind of wait for their day in the sun. They can actually do very well. Again, the problem with that is you can't trade every single day exactly the same way because the trend, right, the trend is down. And obviously if you're a sell bias trader, where you trade both sides of the market like I do, that's fine. You want to go with the trend. The trickiest day is the days that are up, right? Those are the days because you don't know how high or how hard the rally is going to be. And those are the days become the trickiest because those are the days because you're also trading the lesser size because the dead cat bounce. And the most important part is you don't know when that day or that trend is going to stop. So crazy, crazy week, a lot of buying, a lot of selling. And the question is what happens next? And, you know, before we happen what happens next, let's talk about the levels, right? And again, the most important part on every single video, the common denominator is not how great a stock reform or how great a, how horrible stock reform, it's all about levels. It's all about technical analysis. If you go back to the Thursday night video, right, right before Friday's session, we talked about the importance of 275.42, right? So if you are a novice, right? If you are a novice trader or if you are an experienced trader, the data on your chart doesn't change. And that's the most important part and that's the most consistent part of every video. We don't talk about how great something is. We talk about how phenomenal technical analysis is both long and short. And no matter who you are, unless again, unless you're trading the Bangladesh exchange, right? You have 275.42 as your level of interest, right? You're pivot, right? You're lying in the sand. And if you are a trader and if you are an investor and you have no business and you have no wish or no want or no enthusiasm about looking at charts and you say, well, technical analysis is a waste of time. Well, that 275.42 level was your lifeline, right? You kind of knew what was going to happen there, what was going to, what should have happened there. And if you didn't know, it just didn't care. Well, six points later on the queues, well, do you care now? And that's the most important part. Fundamental analysis is great if you're an investor for a long term, 5, 10, 12, 20 years. If you're a trader, you better know. You better know every single level, every single day because if you're not, you are trading blind. And I've said this for numerous times, numerous, numerous times. If you're a brand new trader and I get it, you're growing up in the whole social media generation. You got to know what this one's doing and that one's doing. This is all you need to know. It's right in front of you. It's the same data, folks. I promise you, my data is no different than your data. That's no different from Joe Blow's data. It's all the same. It's all about technical analysis. You either fall in love with it or you get run over it. And unfortunately, a lot of investors, and especially in this type of sell bias environment, are facing with the latter on pretty much on a daily basis. The big thing going into this new week is going to be the CPI, right? And that's the CPI is the thing that this candle here on the 13th, right? September the 13th. Well, the CPI, this is the candle that started this next level of death spiral, right? We're currently in right now. So it's going to be very, very important to see what the CPI reading is for September. Okay, that's obviously going to set the tone. But now we concentrate more important than that. Now we concentrate on more important things that are the next levels, right? What's done is done. If you didn't, you know, again, if you knew that 275, 40 level was important, and you didn't care about it, well, it's over, right? It's in the past. We don't live there anymore. Now we're looking at channels to the recent lows. The recent low here on September the 30th and September the, and August the 3rd, remember it was a Friday and a Monday, they'll both 267. You see it? 267, 10, 267, 53. So this will be obviously a very, very important line in the sand. So no matter if it's a CPI, GPI, ABC, GPD, whatever, you know, whatever you want to call it, right? The point is if it starts building below this 267 level, then you have your measured potential for the next leg down to 262 on the Nasdaq 100. If you look at the spies, you'll have a little bit of a different view, but it kind of is the same thing. Again, spies lost this whole channel here. The bottom of the spies is 357. Or if you are looking at the SPX, the big, big turn here is going to be below 3584, which is the low from the September 30 area. Very, very important indeed. So let's talk about the individual stocks, right? A lot of names broke down on Friday, as you can imagine. We'll get to individual pivots in a second, but there's a lot of names that still have not, or at least have not taken out the previous channel. And those are the names all in Nasdaq 100. You really don't have to search high and low this weekend. You could run through 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 in about three, four minutes, very, very quickly. And you could clearly see, look at the bottom range here on Amazon, right? Look at NVIDIA. Even though NVIDIA got ahead of Monster Day down on Friday, and obviously the catalyst was AMD, but it hasn't even hit the bottom of the channel yet. So AMD looks terrible, right? Excuse me, NVIDIA looks terrible. I mean, AMD looks like lower prices as well. But the point is there's a lot of names still that haven't hit last week's low that potentially they take them out this week. You could see a much more of an aggressive snowballs effect. But again, like I said on Thursday, on Wednesday's video, it's not just technology, it's everything else. Again, we talked about BJ Wholesalers, right? Remember BJ Wholesalers on Wednesday's video? It's taken down the 50-day moving average again. Nice orderly move. Again, this thing starts taking out 70. This thing has room to 67, 68. That's 72 area was super, super big. Even a name like, and again, I'll show you in a second from Friday, but even a name like Levi Strauss, right? That was the last time you thought about Levi Jeans or Levi Strauss, whatever the case may be. But it's the same thing. You know, stocks are getting hit all across the board. You got the banks. You got consumer cyclicals we're talking about. You got jeans companies. You have software. Whatever your drug of choice is, nothing is being spared, everything is being sold. So again, it's very, very important to understand the levels coming into this week. And if once again, if you haven't, you know, respected those levels in the past, and it really showed you the ramifications, what happens if you don't respect the levels in the past, well, what's the old adage? You're doomed to repeat history if you don't acknowledge its history. So that's that. So let's talk about Friday's session. Again, jobs number came 3.5%, unexpected unemployment felt to 3.5%. Again, they changed the whole framework of, hey, maybe it's possible that the Fed stops raising rates. Now, not so much. But again, very, very aggressive session. You had pretty much, again, you didn't need to be, for the exception of Levi Strauss, I'll show you that in a second. It was pretty much the horsemen, the same stocks that we look at every single day, whether they were natural continuation or they were macro channels. The point is, nothing got spared. Everything, as you can imagine, got hit. Tesla, again, we've been trading this thing over and over and over again every single day. Tesla 233, if it builds below can flush. That was the number from three days ago, right? Here's the number from three days ago. So it took out the 233, again, big, big move down when all the way down to 222. Now it's below this linear regression line. Now it has all space. And if you look at all the space and you start looking, for example, on the weekly chart on Tesla, well, here's your pot of gold, right? Here's your pot of gold for next week. If we continue the weakness into this 207 level that correlates to, let's see here, May 23rd low, right? So Tesla has a lot of room down, but a big move on Tesla on Friday. Meta broke down macro wise. I think this is first leg down going into next week. 134, if it builds below can flush. Here was Meta. It triggered towards the afternoon. Not a big move yet, but again, this is the first close below this 134 area. It went down to that 132. This thing starts losing 32 if the market continues to push down. 127 is your next potential target. Roku got smashed. 5765, if it builds below can flush. Here was Roku, right? Here was Roku. You kind of have the same thing over and over and over again. So it lost to 5765. Went all the way down pretty much at the lows of last week's range. Put in the low of 54 and change. This thing starts losing that 54 area. 55, 54 area has room to 51 and change. So again, you could see a measured potential there. Google only went down a little bit. 9880 if it builds below can flush. But I like Google going into this week just like everything else, right? Google first close below the 10 day moving average. Only went down like 60, 70 cents. But this thing starts losing 98. You have room only down to 94 next week. Again, not everything could be huge. Amazon got smashed. And again, we are approaching a macro number this week potentially on Amazon. 1769 if it builds below can flush. Here is Amazon, right? So it took out the 1769 traded all the way down to 1388. You see this bottom channel here? This is going to be the one that's going to potentially really crack this thing and give an expansion aggressive day if it gets down there. Assuming it gets down there. Who knows? I think we could be looking at a debt cat balance for Friday's Monday session. But again, all signs point to continuation this week. Dock you 50 if it builds below can flush. Here is Dock you, right? Here's Dock you. It took out this whole level here, right? This whole range here went all the way down to 47 and change if it loses the Bollinger Band next week. Again, you get the picture has more room to downside as well. Cues again, here's the line of the sand. You know, we talked about this on Thursday's video. Nobody should be surprised that that was the level. You know, that was the levy where the where broke, right? That was the big level there. So 275 40 broke when traded all the way down to the 269. The video massacred 126 21 all the way down to the 122. Levi again, here's and here and here's guys. You remember we so much option flow, option for option flow. When you see option flow, a big aggressive buyer come in and we've been talking about this nonstop for years. But when you see option flow and a level gets lost there's a high probability it's going to fall through to that side. 1440 held twice a buyer comes in for 10,000, right? Not 100, not 100. 10,000 of the January 13 puts swing potential. Nice move on Levy. Really nice move on Levy when here's, you know, took out the whole, excuse me, took out this whole 1440 level trade all the way down to the 1360s. This thing looks lower as well. And I believe that is it, right? That's it. So that's it. So moral of the story is guys, look, the market is super duper aggressive. I've been saying this for years. If you're an investor, you better have a plan. If you're a trader, you have both sides of the market to trade. That is your course of action. The only time you should be patient is waiting for your channel or waiting for your daily chart or however, on this great beautiful earth. You decide to trade and put stakes in the freezer until that level gets taken out your observer until you are ready to roll. Guys, have a great weekend. God bless. And I look forward to seeing you guys on Monday. Take care.