 The one group that continues to be very good. And for all you guys who swung a VRTX a couple of months ago from this 108 level, you know, excuse me, 208 level, you know how good these biotech swings have been. Matter of fact, the last one. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly slash weekend update. Hope everybody is doing well, three day weekend. I think I can speak for everybody, right? No matter if you're a permable, perma bearer, perma sheep or whatever the hell they call it. Hope everybody needed to get a nice little three day rest, a little three day rebalance mentally. Market starting the year off on a negative note. Two weeks in a row, now negative readings for the indexes. Again, I personally don't believe in the whole wives tale of first couple of weeks are gonna set the tone for the whole year. This is the stock market. It's been completely different now for the last five, seven years. It was for the first 22, 23 years of my career. Markets are disconnected. Okay, so this is very, very obvious. And if you look at the indexes, you're probably going to see a lot of neutral imbalances in a lot of names. A lot of, I'm sure for all you guys who are investors, you're gonna notice a lot of your stocks kind of not really doing anything. Up a little bit, down a little bit, maybe drifting a little bit lower. If you're an index observer, and again I use the indexes for guides, you're gonna realize that a lot of indexes, the S&P, the NASDAQ 100, right? The SPY, the QQQs, they're kind of in the middle of the range. They're just floating down. And then just when they're about to get big technical damage, they kind of spike back up and everybody gets excited again. And then two days later, they start drifting lower. So when you look at your favorite stocks, you're probably gonna see middle of the range delta neutral towards negative bias. And that's kind of where we are going into the new week. That's kind of where we are for the first two weeks of the year. But the most important part is again, just keep a level ahead. Again, the word chop, right? The word chop factor comes in only if you're expecting one side of the market to succeed and you get your balloon popped. When you know everything's in the middle of the range, you really have no expectations. That's your first clue to kind of scale back a little bit, right? You don't need to go full throttle. Again, when you look at your favorite stocks, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. Amazon, right? It's been kind of drifting lower than right when it's about to break down, spikes back up again. You got your Microsoft defending the bottom of the range here three times in a row and you get excited again. Oh, it's about to go up triple bottom and rolls back over again. Tesla has been a really phenomenal trader for a long, long time. For many, many years, you know, had a big, big run up, had a big, big gap down, drift lower. Then you have a lot of days that are rebounding then engulfing two days worth of selling only to break down, only to recover. So it's kind of a mess out, right? Mess solid with a lot of names as well. Netflix just looks like, you know, for the exception of that rebound on Friday, it looks just drifting and drifting and drifting again. They kick off earnings on the 20th of this month. It's going to start kind of the tech earnings for the first quarter. Last week, we had the Banks report. They really did nothing. You know, you had Wells Fargo reporting. Stock has been really, really good, but the earnings are really nothing, right? You had Citibank, you had Citibank, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, you know, again, the earnings itself are fine. You had some a little bit had positive reactions, some had negative reactions, but there's nothing to really turn to in the forecast of the economy and say, all right, the banks start the difference if the market goes up or down. That stock hasn't been the case for a long time. For us, it's all about technology, especially if you're a subscriber to this channel, this YouTube channel, or just follow me on Twitter. You know how important the NASDAQ 100 is, and the question is, do they rally ahead of their earnings going into this week? Again, to be determined, there's nothing in the charts that will turn around and say, yes, you have to be long Tesla ahead of earnings. Maybe it's good, maybe it's not. There's nothing that turn around says you have to be a long Apple ahead of its quarter. You have to be long Amazon. Remember, Amazon now has disappointed two quarters of an a row. So it's very, very important to kind of take the market right now at phase value. The first thing I've learned many, many moons ago when I first started trading, number one, the market doesn't make sense. Good news is bad. Sometimes bad news is good and vice versa. So expect the unexpected and take everything for phase value. If something comes out with good news and they sell the stock, the news doesn't matter anymore. The stock becomes bad. So it's very, very important to kind of going into this week or kind of going into the next week to always have that neutral balance of thinking that anything could happen, that anything will happen, that the Fed will continue to give us headline after headline after headline and say absolutely nothing. I think we could all understand that. And again, if I was a drinker and every single time there was a headline with the Fed and it feels like there's a headline with the Fed now every 30 seconds. If I had to take literally a shot of vodka, I'd be drunk by the open. So it's too much information, not enough movement, not enough action with the Fed. So the market is kind of stuck in Delta neutral right now. I think if you're going into this week with a bias, I think you can be very, very disappointed that again, most of the stocks are in the middle of the ranges. The semiconductors, if you look at any kind of guiding light, because the semis have led us up and they have led us down. There's some names that look very, very good. When you look at the semiconductor space, you had some pretty good numbers come out of Taiwan Semi. AMAT looks like it wants to go. You have CLAC, it looks like it wants to go. You have Micron, it looks like it's about to go. But the stocks that we trade, right? The stocks that have really, really aggressive day-to-day average ranges. Like NVIDIA, NVIDIA is like a, it's really like an oddity right now. It just doesn't know what it wants to do. It's really, really big run and it's really big down. It's now it's lagging the rest of the semiconductor group. You look at AMD, right? Kind of the same thing. AMD had this monster, monster run with NVIDIA, now came back in with NVIDIA and kind of just sitting there trying to figure out what's next. And you see all this cluster, whether it's a chart on AMD or whether it's a chart on NVIDIA, you see all these trees in the forest. You see all the supply. So the bulls are not getting enough aggression for them to start reclaiming the 50-day moving average and the bears are not getting enough fear or not enough control for them to have technical damage below rising support. So we're kind of in again, in a mismatched solid. We're kind of in all over the place. And this is where you have to turn around, especially if you're a technology trader. Like for example, Thursday night's video, if you guys remember Thursday night's video, I was sold by, I said, where are you gonna find such really, really good value on the upside? So we gapped out on everything, the Dow closed down 200 points. And as I had a nice little recovery throughout the day, but like Tesla was down 30 pre-market. So any short that I wanted from the previous day, it was already down 30. So nice reversal back to the upside. But again, it's kind of stuck in Delta Neutral, not here, not there. But I think that technology space, if it's not the semiconductor space with like an MU that looks pretty good, if the semiconductor's continue, looks like a AMAT or CLAC or LRCX, I think you have to kind of leave the other names just kind of alone. And when you look at all other groups, you're seeing weird symbols showing a lot of strength. Matter of fact, if you guys remember on Thursday, we saw really good moves in names like Ford, names like AT&T, right? Look at the Xerox chart. Look at the Xerox chart, right? What year is this? Ford, Xerox, right? AT&T, the dividend stocks are waking up. The one group that continues to be very good. And for all you guys who swung a VRTX couple of months ago from this 108 level, you know, excuse me, 208 level, you know how good these biotech swings have been. Matter of fact, the last one, it's still an active swing was this Amgen, right? If you guys remember, we talked about Amgen for a couple of weeks and now it's just finally starting to expand to the upside, finally accumulating and confirming this 231 level. I think the value in a weird way for all you guys who are swinging these biotech names, there are some good looking charts. Let me give you a couple of plays. Look at this BMRN, right? Look at this BMRN, long distribution. This is gonna be like VRTX. This is gonna be like Amgen. It's not gonna be a day trade. You're gonna be up $2 in the stock. You're gonna be down $2 in the stock. As long as it doesn't close below the previous day's range, you're going to be okay. You have to stay in these things for weeks, but when they finally do confirm and they start going, there's gonna be a lot of value in this thing. So keep an eye on this thing for this week. BMRN, long channel, going back to November 22nd. If it finally closes above it, hey, maybe this thing could start waking up. Look at a name like NC as well, right? Look at NC. It looks like, if you look at Amgen's chart, right? Take a quick mental snapshot of this, right? You see all this supply here, right? It's underneath supply. Look at Amgen's chart, right? Amgen, you see how it was standing all underneath supply and then finally got above supply? So look at NC, right? Same thing. You know, you're sitting there. Again, it's gonna be, it's gonna take weeks to finally for this thing to play out. It's not going to be a day trade. But for all you guys who've traded the VRTX, or swung the VRTX and swinging the Amgen, watch NC, watch BMRN. That's where kind of the value is right now with most of technology sitting in the middle of the rages. Again, you're not gonna find, you're not gonna will your way for Amazon to come out of a channel. It's either gonna come out of a channel or it's not. So you have to be very, very patient with technology. I am kind of bullish on the semiconductor space. Again, like we talked about the Microns, the Amats of the world. But in a weird way, if that is not your niche, if that's not your sweet spot, you almost have to be almost pedestrian-like to kind of sit there and wait for your sweet spot. Because again, the hardest part about trading the Tesla, trading the Vidya, if they don't give you clean channels, if they give you clean channels, those are the best stocks to trade. If they just sit there and channels bouncing up and down, up and down, like a ping pong game, right? You're not gonna get any value and that's kind of where we are right now. Look at, talk about old school. Look at Goodyear Tire, right? Talk about AT&T, Ford breaking out. Look at Goodyear Tire. This is a long, long distribution. Again, this is not gonna be a day trade. But for all you guys who are daily swinging charts, look how long the distribution is. The longer the distribution, the better the higher probability it's gonna come out of its channel. So, you know, keep an eye on this thing for this week. Looks pretty good. Even a name like UNVR, that I have no idea what this thing is, Universe Solutions, I've never heard of this thing. Look how long the distribution is. It's going back all the way back to November the 8th. So there are channels, there are daily charts that have a lot of really good value. They're just not really technology-based right now. So if you are a technology trader, like you are, like I am, especially trading daily channels, yeah, you gotta be patient. Matter of fact, I was so patient on Friday. I didn't even trade on Friday, right? Everything, once we gapped down and I just couldn't find any value back to the downside, back to the upside, there was no value for me. But again, that is the discipline. Okay, you're not gonna get cake every single time for dinner. And the most important part is put yourself in a situation that you are in control. Markets open, that's cool. Market stocks are moving, that's cool. Remember, every stock moves, okay? Every stock goes up and goes down. But most stocks are not tradable. So when you have absolutely no edge, it's not a sign of weakness, right? It's not a sign of weakness. I'm gonna say, look, this is kind of a big mess. It's Friday ahead of a long three-day weekend. It's a sign of maturity. And that's exactly what you want. Again, there's a big difference between an uneducated trader talking about, well, it's cash is a position. Let's sit on your hands. Okay, you try sitting on your hands for two, three months. That's a sign of I can't trade both sides of the market. But when you have a day that you could clearly see that your initial game plan, for example, for Friday, my initial game plan was downside channels. We gapped down so heavy that there wasn't enough meat on the bones. And a lot of these stocks kind of started bouncing in the middle of the day. It's okay to sit it out, okay? It's not a big deal. Remember, it's your money, guys. You don't need to sit there and trying to convince yourself to pacify your ego, to put your feet into the fire. If there's no edge, there's no advantage. Who cares? Leave it alone. Forget about FOMO. It's JOMO. It's the joy of missing out. You don't care what happens in the market. If you're not getting a 95 mile an hour fastball straight down the middle, you're not swinging for the curve ball, the screw ball, the slider and the dirt. You're waiting for that slow pitch right in the middle. And again, you might not get it today. You might not get it tomorrow, but you will get it. And if you are disciplined enough to get it, wait for it and you sit there. You're not gonna prostitute your money or deviate from your process. You're gonna have a long, long, really, really fruitful career. If you sit there like every single day, talking like on a social media basis, talking about every single day as an opportunity, everything like this and everything like that. There's a party here and there's a party there. You're gonna do everything possible to sabotage your career because you know, right? You know subconsciously you are doing things outside of your comfort zone. That's what happens when you start justifying the means because the market's open. Again, we don't trade the market because the market's open. We trade because we have value. So going into this week, I wanna see which way technology blends. I'm obviously gonna watch some of the semiconductors, especially for early dips into rising 60 minutes support. But I kinda wanna get a feel. Do they wanna run up technology ahead of earnings? Remember, Netflix reports on the 20th, right? I tell you it's the 17th, we're off today. So they report on the 20th. It's gonna kick off earning season. It's gonna start setting in the tone. And the following week, obviously, we got the Super Bowl of Earnings, Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft and everything in between. So we're gonna get a good sense of where we are going into the second month of the year. But for now, we're kind of in a holding pattern. But that's okay. Remember, just say to yourself, that's okay. It's my hard-earned money. I'm not gonna play just because the market is open. I'm gonna wait for my spot and don't deviate. In the meantime, you got some pretty attractive swing potentials here with BMRN, with NC, with GT, with UNVR, even Boeing. Even Boeing looks really, really good. Like look at Boeing, right? Boeing looks really good. Had a big, big run here. It got rejected at supply right over here. If it starts putting in a base above supply, maybe it could wake up and go into the 230s, right? So again, not everything is right for everybody. Not one size does not fit all. Everybody has different niches. Everybody niches, niches, niches. I never understood how to pronounce the damn thing. But everybody has different areas of comfortability. And that's the most important part of this business, being comfortable in your skin. Not in mine, not in somebody else's, be comfortable in your skin. Guys, God bless, stay patient. If you feel value, again, allocate your money with extreme confidence. If there is no value, there's nothing wrong with waiting. Guys, have a great day. Have a great, great week. Oh, God bless, and I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.